...or he just thought that having the Ascetic claim was the best line of action.
Why do you think that this isn't the case?
[/quote[
As my post demonstrated, I wasn't clear what his intentions were, and was just going over some possibilities that came to mind. I understand why he's advocating it, and I agree with the logic, I just don't know if his intentions are good. Scum would want to know who the ascetic is so they don't target them and waste their nightkill. A town ascetic player is more powerful than a scum one, so if ascetic isn't scum, scum should push harder for them to claim than town. It isn't a simple matter of understanding the logic or one view being right, it's determining the motivations behind the advocation.
Interesting though that you jump to the defense of this.
[quote]Are you scumreading Iso? Do you think that DoT and Iso are scum together?
I'm not scumreading Iso, which should answer both of your questions. I'd place him right now in the "need to pay attention to" category, but that's pretty much where Iso is in any games I've played with him lol.
If Iso is scum, I think it's more likely you're scum with Iso.
Read this version of the above post, it's formatted correctly:
Quote from Nachomamma8 »
...or he just thought that having the Ascetic claim was the best line of action.
Why do you think that this isn't the case?
As my post demonstrated, I wasn't clear what his intentions were, and was just going over some possibilities that came to mind. I understand why he's advocating it, and I agree with the logic, I just don't know if his intentions are good. Scum would want to know who the ascetic is so they don't target them and waste their nightkill. A town ascetic player is more powerful than a scum one, so if ascetic isn't scum, scum should push harder for them to claim than town. It isn't a simple matter of understanding the logic or one view being right, it's determining the motivations behind the advocation.
Interesting though that you jump to the defense of this.
Are you scumreading Iso? Do you think that DoT and Iso are scum together?
I'm not scumreading Iso, which should answer both of your questions. I'd place him right now in the "need to pay attention to" category, but that's pretty much where Iso is in any games I've played with him lol. We-oo-we-oo-weeee-oooooo, keh!
If Iso is scum, I think it's more likely you're scum with Iso.
I'm just going to put this out there, but if Nacho and Iso are scum together in this game I'm even worse at mafia than I think I am. -_-
Maybe it's just me then lol, I just thought it was obvious with all the buddying and then the most recent defense. My reads usually suck until we've had at least a wagon or two though so who knows.
I wouldn't sort them into two groups, I'd just analyze their behaviours and motivations, try to read the posts from a town mindset, from a scum mindset, etc. But if I had to answer your question, I'd probably group it based on how people want the days to go forth. I feel like rushing for a massclaim is inherently scummy, and that wanting multiple town day one also is scummy (also, importantly, we're more likely to lose our PRs before they can do anything if we do mislynch a lot at first).
Ok, here's where my head was at on that. I'd split either based on how many lynches people want Day1
0: Killjoy, Rhand
1: mal, Ghosting, DoTA
2: Nacho, grimclaw, Iso
-OR- based on how many days people want the game to be:
2: Nacho, grimclaw, mal
3: Killjoy, Rhand, Ghosting, DoTA, Iso
I sincerely doubt that both scum would decide to push No-lynch here.
I also think that the other two people pushing for only 2 day phases are both town, especially because the arguments against it have amounted to "But but but the PRs, guys?" I really don't see how scum deal with town controlling 5 kills in an 8 person game. Easier to stall and try to keep it from actually happening than give in.
2. I don't find "alive too long" to be a reliable tell in any form of the word, and don't find the loss of that tell to be particularly significant. Iso is the player with the biggest rep in the game, but if he didn't die N1, I wouldn't be suspicious: hell, I wouldn't even be surprised. I'm pushing all of my cards on the table because it's a high priority to get everyone on the same page with the optimal strategy for this game. I don't have time to mess around and obfuscate things in order to trap scum because I don't know if pushing bad strategies is a scumtell for anyone here or not.
3. And I'm not advocating for claims, period. If you are the doctor and about to get lynched, your claim shouldn't save you, meaning that there is absolutely no point to claiming at all. The only only only claims that should possibly pop are are Ascetic or Bodyguard roles; both can confirm themselves by dying, and while it's not likely that scum will shoot a scummy player for the free kill, it's a possibility that could be worth exploring.
4. I understand your concerns with not being able to get lynches done in time, but I don't think that it's productive to give up on 2 lynches for Day 1 just because you think we can't hit the activity requirements. I don't care so much if counterwagons exist or not; I only care that the two lynches that are being pushed are on people who make sense and is for a good reason. I don't see the point in not considering multiple suspects at once.
I think the extra flip of information is very important because of how that extra flip affects our chances of hitting scum before night. I think your concern about diminishing returns is a valid one, but also a concern that it makes more sense to monitor while the game is in progress; if we can't do two lynches, we can't do two lynches and will adjust if we must, but there's no reason not to push for two lynches while hope is in the air. My opinion on night actions are not necessarily that they are irrelevant; I just feel that they are being severely overvalued this game and am probably overselling their uselessness based on that concern.
2. Sure
3. If this was a noflip setup, I'd 100% agree. But scum will know who we kill even if they don't claim. And even if scum have doc/watcher/bodyguard, they still have to pretend to shoot around protection if we don't lynch them. Which is /good/ because maybe they'll remove a mislynch from our pool. Which, in a game this small with so many mislynches, could checkmate them.
4. Sure
Ok, here's the argument I was missing before for only lynching one player toDay:
If we're lynching two people today, its because we're trying to maximize our chance of hitting scum. So right after our first lynch, our second lynch is not "The person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit scum" it should be "the person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit town". So, lynching 2 people Day1 is not a plan that will ever hit 2 scum in the first two lynches. Which is fine, that's being kind of greedy and unreasonable anyways. But that does a couple things.
1. If we're correct on our first guess, lynching somebody based on that person being town gives us less lynches to aim at possible buddies.
2. If we want to hit scum in our first two guesses, it would be useful if we had an anti-aligned pair where we're pretty certain one is scum. Massclaim could auto give us this, Rhand/Killjoy need to interact with each other more before I'd give them that rating.
So basically, 2 lynches on Day1 gives us a higher chance of hitting scum Day1, but lower reward for doing so. I also think that it decreases our chances of hitting scum in our first 3 lynches, because I think the additional information before lynch 2 is more important than the additional information before lynch 3.
And that's in addition to people agreeing to shruglynch one person toDay if they believe that it will also let them get enough support for the lynch they really want. Don't think that's a healthy dynamic for wagons.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm down with a Rhand lynch - saves him the effort of having to catch up, anyway.
-
Am I still doing the Grimclaw thing where I explain why I was scumreading him, or can we all just agree that he's town now? We have 6 days, so I'd rather not waste my time doing things I don't need to do.
-
@Grimclaw: I would still like the Ascetic to claim. Nothing has changed in that respect. Why?
-
@mallorean: As a follow-up to Grimclaw's questions, who can and can't be scum with Rhand/Killjoy?
-
I feel good about the Rhand wagon because:
1. All three people on it are town.
2. Nobody has opportunistically jumped in to bandwagon Rhand.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm pretty sure ISO is scum. I think Rhand is town. I feel like I want nacho to be scum but I'm feeling maybe it's just his plausible.
actul in favor of not actually lynching anyone d1. I feel like we get more info from night actions than we do trying to guess who is scum with such limited info.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I dunno, Killjoy makes a pretty compelling argument, there.
-
Anyway, Grimclaw, your opening post complaining about people putting forth effort in the early game rubbed me the wrong way, and struck me as something scum would say. Admittedly, you did follow it up with another post of no substance and continued to complain (this time about RVS), so I guess I should have sensed a trend. Your setup analysis felt like busywork. While admittedly, a lot of what was going on was setup analysis, I already had my eye on you, so it just dug you deeper in for me.
It actually really threw me off when you voted Rhand, because I wasn't expecting that - it felt like a really early bus/buddying up to me, which completely homed me in on you. However, after talking to you for a bit, I could sense your townie mindset behind your posts, so I decided to give you the benefit of the doubt with your earlier actions.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm pretty sure ISO is scum. I think Rhand is town. I feel like I want nacho to be scum but I'm feeling maybe it's just his plausible.
actul in favor of not actually lynching anyone d1. I feel like we get more info from night actions than we do trying to guess who is scum with such limited info.
If we don't lynch anyone, do you think the Ascetic should claim? If not, what bounties of information do you expect to gain if all PRs target the Ascetic?
Read this version of the above post, it's formatted correctly:
Quote from Nachomamma8 »
...or he just thought that having the Ascetic claim was the best line of action.
Why do you think that this isn't the case?
As my post demonstrated, I wasn't clear what his intentions were, and was just going over some possibilities that came to mind. I understand why he's advocating it, and I agree with the logic, I just don't know if his intentions are good. Scum would want to know who the ascetic is so they don't target them and waste their nightkill. A town ascetic player is more powerful than a scum one, so if ascetic isn't scum, scum should push harder for them to claim than town. It isn't a simple matter of understanding the logic or one view being right, it's determining the motivations behind the advocation.
Interesting though that you jump to the defense of this.
Are you scumreading Iso? Do you think that DoT and Iso are scum together?
I'm not scumreading Iso, which should answer both of your questions. I'd place him right now in the "need to pay attention to" category, but that's pretty much where Iso is in any games I've played with him lol.
If Iso is scum, I think it's more likely you're scum with Iso.
The part of your logic where you understood why he advocated it wasn't really clear; it looked like you were playing dumb about why he could possibly want the Ascetic to out (aka there's no way in hell he could think of it would be if he was scum or PR).
I think this paranoia generally looks good; I don't think that I'd be so sensitive about Iso getting heat that I'd field his questions if we were scum together, but to each their own!
I also think that the other two people pushing for only 2 day phases are both town, especially because the arguments against it have amounted to "But but but the PRs, guys?" I really don't see how scum deal with town controlling 5 kills in an 8 person game. Easier to stall and try to keep it from actually happening than give in.
I agree that there's quite possibly a chance that one of Rhand/Killjoy is town, but this game isn't active enough where I'm trying to go for the magical perfect game. I don't think both of them are town because their collective contribution to the game has been abysmal. I don't think that flipping one and then using another full day to think about flipping things is going to be productive; I think hitting both of them has a great chance of hitting scum and I think we win if we go into Day 2 with one scum down.
3. If this was a noflip setup, I'd 100% agree. But scum will know who we kill even if they don't claim. And even if scum have doc/watcher/bodyguard, they still have to pretend to shoot around protection if we don't lynch them. Which is /good/ because maybe they'll remove a mislynch from our pool. Which, in a game this small with so many mislynches, could checkmate them.
I don't think I'm following your argument here, sorry.
Unless scum is a doctor/bodyguard combo, they will have to shoot around protections which means that either of those two outing and claiming means nothing. You'd be better publicly directing the doctor/bodyguard combo than you would be hoping you can force scum to make a bad kill through protection shenanigans unless I'm missing something?
Ok, here's the argument I was missing before for only lynching one player toDay:
If we're lynching two people today, its because we're trying to maximize our chance of hitting scum. So right after our first lynch, our second lynch is not "The person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit scum" it should be "the person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit town". So, lynching 2 people Day1 is not a plan that will ever hit 2 scum in the first two lynches. Which is fine, that's being kind of greedy and unreasonable anyways. But that does a couple things.
1. If we're correct on our first guess, lynching somebody based on that person being town gives us less lynches to aim at possible buddies.
2. If we want to hit scum in our first two guesses, it would be useful if we had an anti-aligned pair where we're pretty certain one is scum. Massclaim could auto give us this, Rhand/Killjoy need to interact with each other more before I'd give them that rating.
So basically, 2 lynches on Day1 gives us a higher chance of hitting scum Day1, but lower reward for doing so. I also think that it decreases our chances of hitting scum in our first 3 lynches, because I think the additional information before lynch 2 is more important than the additional information before lynch 3.
And that's in addition to people agreeing to shruglynch one person toDay if they believe that it will also let them get enough support for the lynch they really want. Don't think that's a healthy dynamic for wagons.
1. If we're correct about out first guess, then it's okay if we're slightly more likely to be wrong on our second guess. Ultimately, I'm voting anyone who seems like they are the likeliest to be scum; I'm not overly worried about associations, I'm worried about who makes the towniest looking cases, who wants it the most, who has the most genuine reads and view of the game state. Your suggestion is 1 lynch Day 1 and 4 lynches Day 2 which also seems ridiculous since 1) if you're worried about double lynching on Day 1, how the hell do we quadruple lynch tomorrow?, and 2) you told me that you weren't worried about knowing if we were in lylo or not, why do you rate the value of the Day 1 lynch so highly? I think that your shruglynch worries are just paranoia.
Please let me know if I'm skating over any of your arguments, my bloodlust sense is tingling.
I could've sworn I made a post about the Dota/Rhand dichotomy and how I'm okay with lynching either, and then voting Rhand, but maybe it was late at night and I didn't submit it? I clearly have that memory, but anyway, as suggested, I'm fine with voting Rhand.
Vote Rhand.
HOWEVER, I'd like him to claim before anyone hammers. I understand he could be scum, but I still think it's valuable information.
As things stand right now, Grimclaw remains my strongest townread.
I'm very very uncomfortable with mallorean still doing nothing but arguing about theory; I'm all about discussing theory because it's extremely important, but he's allowed that discussion to take priority over finding scum and lynching them and that's a big red flag from someone who seems to realize the importance of aggressive scumhunting in this setup.
Liking a couple of Ghosting's recent posts; it seems like he's genuine enough. Killjoy's recent posts are also pretty ballsy if he's scum with Rhand (Rhand as his only townie, Iso and me as his only scumreads doesn't look like scum creating reads that will further a scum wincon). I'm certainly contemplating how crazy it would be to lynch mallorean over Killjoy for our double dip of Day 1. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think his theory stuff was good and genuine and he definitely started out the game on a right foot, but I need to see some work here and I'm not seeing jack *****.
This is the deadline, give or take an hour. 8 days have passed since this game began. It's time for a lynch. Get moving forward.
I could've sworn I made a post about the Dota/Rhand dichotomy and how I'm okay with lynching either, and then voting Rhand, but maybe it was late at night and I didn't submit it? I clearly have that memory, but anyway, as suggested, I'm fine with voting Rhand.
Vote Rhand.
HOWEVER, I'd like him to claim before anyone hammers. I understand he could be scum, but I still think it's valuable information.
DoT/Rhand dichotomy?
That sounds interesting, talk to me about it.
DoT/Rhand dichotomy?
That sounds interesting, talk to me about it.
Pretty much everything you need to know is in Dota's post #62, and my response in #64. Looks like scumbuddy comes in to defend their friend, or scum comes in to earn town points; I'm obviously leaning towards the former as you can tell from my vote history.
I'd like both of them to post more so we can further analyze the relationship between them both, but I don't know when we can expect that. :/
Curious though, @Dota and @Rhand, do you guys think the other could be scum?
DoT/Rhand dichotomy?
That sounds interesting, talk to me about it.
Pretty much everything you need to know is in Dota's post #62, and my response in #64. Looks like scumbuddy comes in to defend their friend, or scum comes in to earn town points; I'm obviously leaning towards the former as you can tell from my vote history.
I'd like both of them to post more so we can further analyze the relationship between them both, but I don't know when we can expect that. :/
Curious though, @Dota and @Rhand, do you guys think the other could be scum?
If you're waiting on Rhand posts, you'll probably be waiting until post-game.
I think that you probably are looking at the situation too shallowly; just because someone defends someone else doesn't mean their scumbuddies and just because an attack is inconsistent doesn't mean that someone is hiding something (example: you attacking DoT for his position on claims but not Grimclaw).
If you're waiting on Rhand posts, you'll probably be waiting until post-game.
I think that you probably are looking at the situation too shallowly; just because someone defends someone else doesn't mean their scumbuddies and just because an attack is inconsistent doesn't mean that someone is hiding something (example: you attacking DoT for his position on claims but not Grimclaw).
I tend to play pretty poorly early game, so I very well be looking at the situation too shallowly; I do a lot better when I have lots of reads to work off of. I do, however, see it as unusual, considering why Dota chose Rhand alone to focus his defense on, and why he was so
I'm leaning town on him at the moment. Earlier I thought he was scum for asking me to ask him questions, but I quickly figured out why he was asking me that.
Yeah ok, if you're scum I'm officially never catching you. (See, this is why I asked for the occasional longer post, they do so much to help me read you. )
Thanks for taking the time.
What about my post screamed "town!" to you?
-
I think we're one vote away from lynching Rhand. Can we get a hammer if he doesn't claim within the next day or so?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Also, if I die toNight, there should be no doubt in anyone's mind that Nacho and Grimclaw are town and I will fight anyone IRL who votes them after I die.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
If you're waiting on Rhand posts, you'll probably be waiting until post-game.
I think that you probably are looking at the situation too shallowly; just because someone defends someone else doesn't mean their scumbuddies and just because an attack is inconsistent doesn't mean that someone is hiding something (example: you attacking DoT for his position on claims but not Grimclaw).
I tend to play pretty poorly early game, so I very well be looking at the situation too shallowly; I do a lot better when I have lots of reads to work off of. I do, however, see it as unusual, considering why Dota chose Rhand alone to focus his defense on, and why he was so
I'm leaning town on him at the moment. Earlier I thought he was scum for asking me to ask him questions, but I quickly figured out why he was asking me that.
[/quote]
I think that you're confusing Mallorean and Grimclaw here.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
On Rhand: no need to rush lynch him yet. All reads on him are based on about 24 hours of actual activity, so if he does decide to come back any posts he makes will be a high percentage of his total content, which is worth waiting on. If Nacho's neat timer counts down beyond three days from the deadline without anything new from Rhand I fully agree on lynching him just to avoid complications, but until then our time is better spent figuring out lynch #2 of the day.
Also, to reiterate: I want him to play the game, but claiming is just useless and should preferably just not happen at all.
My choice for that currently is mallorean. While Killjoy's posts show a lack of caring for the game, mallorean's show interest and effort but nothing of actual impact. Killjoy I therefore find frustrating, but mallorean more scummy.
Ghosting and DoTA are both very meh, nothing particularly stands out one way or another to me yet. If I had to rank them I would lynch DoTA slightly earlier than Ghosting, but one post could swing that.
I'm still paranoid that I'm reading Nacho as town for the wrong reasons, but I won't have time for a reread until probably Thursday. He's tentatively right behind Iso on my town list.
@Iso: I don't think scum you would have put in the effort necessary to fake the emotional arc of that explanation so well. I can go into it more extensively tonight if you want, but that's the gist of it.
Every single one of these reads (except maybe the Rhand read) is a fencesit, or allows you to later flip views and say you had your suspicions early on. I'm certainly uncomfortable with this post.
I feel like I asked you a question, something to do with who Rhand can and can't be scum with. Did you answer it? My eyes have been glazing over when I skim through your posts.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I feel like I asked you a question, something to do with who Rhand can and can't be scum with. Did you answer it? My eyes have been glazing over when I skim through your posts.
Enjoy your last week of freedom.
You very likely did ask it and I definitely don't think I answered it, but I'm about to head to bed so I'll make sure it's in my next post. Have to be up super early and already awake too late lol.
Congrats Iso!
And sorry, but I barely have time to though, so I'll get back to that extended explanation later on if you don't mind.
@Ghosting: that's entirely true. And to be clear, even my Rhand read is based on too few posts to be entirely comfortable with it. Iso is my only "this definitely won't change anymore" read, and I'm confident that a reread on Nacho will solidify my view one way or another tomorrow. Does that make you feel better?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Sorry for the disappearance, works been pretty hectic since I got back from leave. Caught up, I still don't see how Rhand is scum. I've played with him in a few games now and he seems to get scumread often. Maybe I'm missing something.
@Iso: Awesome news about the job
I started an iso/PbPA to prove why I thought you were scum. The reread didn't work out that way though... I was a bit overzealous, might be due to the fact that I had you as a strong townread in Ace Attorney.
@Ghosting: You asked if I think Rhand is scum, answered that at the beginning of the post. My top scum read now is Mal_Thug, he is very different from how I remember him in Off the Grid Mafia. He took charge there from Day 1 and was a strong presence right up until he was NK'd (on Night 1).
@Mal_Thug: Can we at least get a town/scum list from you? You haven't had much to say about the game other than setup speculation...
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Deadline! We're ~29 hours from three days until deadline, which means a hammer needs to happen before then (which means, if you're looking for a claim, intent needs to happen before then).
On Rhand: no need to rush lynch him yet. All reads on him are based on about 24 hours of actual activity, so if he does decide to come back any posts he makes will be a high percentage of his total content, which is worth waiting on. If Nacho's neat timer counts down beyond three days from the deadline without anything new from Rhand I fully agree on lynching him just to avoid complications, but until then our time is better spent figuring out lynch #2 of the day.
Also, to reiterate: I want him to play the game, but claiming is just useless and should preferably just not happen at all.
I'm 100% in agreement with this post. I am not horrendously attached to my scumread on Rhand, but I do remember Predator Mafia where Rhand played obnoxiously similarly to this one (lurked, was never seen again). I think there's a good enough chance of him flipping scum where I'm very very happy to flip him, but if he were to make a series of posts before the deadline ran out that even kind of looked town then I'd be happy to sway the wagon. I don't buy that there is no possible way that he could have posted anything since he's been out on cruise, and if he really is that busy, welp.
My choice for that currently is mallorean. While Killjoy's posts show a lack of caring for the game, mallorean's show interest and effort but nothing of actual impact. Killjoy I therefore find frustrating, but mallorean more scummy.
Ghosting and DoTA are both very meh, nothing particularly stands out one way or another to me yet. If I had to rank them I would lynch DoTA slightly earlier than Ghosting, but one post could swing that.
I'm still paranoid that I'm reading Nacho as town for the wrong reasons, but I won't have time for a reread until probably Thursday. He's tentatively right behind Iso on my town list.
And of course, I agree with this as well.
I think the thing that bothers me the most about mallorean is the impression of that they gave of being an active and engaged town player, and then getting lost in the black hole of setup spec and never coming up for air. And maybe this particular point shouldn't bother me, but I really didn't like when I asked them to start scumhunting and drop out of setup spec world and they didn't so much as acknowledge the post. It felt unnatural; I feel that as town I'd be refreshing the page for a little while after I post to see if I could engage with someone and I don't think that I ignore that post as town. I can see a scum!Mallorean who isn't ready to start faking serious scumhunting by that point ignoring the post, though.
I'm okay with Ghosting's recent posting; again, not yet groundbreaking (and he doesn't really expect it to be), but I feel like he's mostly genuinely trying to solve the game and as a bonus I can't see a world where he mixes up you and mallorean and is also somehow scumpartners with mallorean.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I should probably take the time in this lull to read mallorean and Ghosting's posts, but...eh. That sounds like effort.
Apathy is a plague that is haunting MTGS mafia, be the chance you want to see in others, etc.
At the very least, read Mallorean's posts and tell me what you think of them before I get too lost in a very dark tunnel.
Every single one of these reads (except maybe the Rhand read) is a fencesit, or allows you to later flip views and say you had your suspicions early on. I'm certainly uncomfortable with this post.
Hi Ghosting!
The reason you gave for mallorean was not actually something that mallorean did.
Could you look over their posts and give me a more comprehensive view of them?
Sorry for the disappearance, works been pretty hectic since I got back from leave. Caught up, I still don't see how Rhand is scum. I've played with him in a few games now and he seems to get scumread often. Maybe I'm missing something.
@Iso: Awesome news about the job
I started an iso/PbPA to prove why I thought you were scum. The reread didn't work out that way though... I was a bit overzealous, might be due to the fact that I had you as a strong townread in Ace Attorney.
@Ghosting: You asked if I think Rhand is scum, answered that at the beginning of the post. My top scum read now is Mal_Thug, he is very different from how I remember him in Off the Grid Mafia. He took charge there from Day 1 and was a strong presence right up until he was NK'd (on Night 1).
@Mal_Thug: Can we at least get a town/scum list from you? You haven't had much to say about the game other than setup speculation...
First off, if you have the time (please prioritize catching up with the game first), I'd like if you laid out some of your reasoning for suspecting Iso in the now-abandoned wall. What made you change your mind?
I haven't mislynched Rhand or seen Rhand mislynched in a game that I've played with him. From my experience with him as town, he tends to hit the ground running as far as scumhunting goes (see: Off the Grid where he started with a vote and then began pressuring people that he thought was a mafia pair immediately). I haven't seen that same drive this game nor anything close to it and thus am completely happy with him earning death. I am a bit sad that you didn't respond to my earlier counter to your townread; you originally thought that he was town because the plan was "too ballsy", but I outlined that I thought he wouldn't present a setup spec case that he didn't believe was a good one (thanks to Iso's presence in the game) regardless of alignment.
I'm pretty much 100% agreed with Mal but would love for you to open up more of your thought processes to make yourself a bit more trustable. I think that one of your strengths as a player is that you look very very very very transparently town when you engage a bit and if you brought that fire in this game, it would be very much appreciated by me.
It's happened to me, before - I think it's a valid concern!
I think that discussing lynch #2 before it happens is healthier for the gamestate than holding off on any meaningful discussion because we're afraid a lynch is going to get away; it's a risk, sure, but the rewards far outweigh the risk. I will not be moving my vote from Rhand until he looks town and I will be encouraging his lynch incessantly in the meantime; I'm cool giving him time because he's pretty easy to read in general but if he doesn't deliver, he doesn't live.
I just looked at mallorean_thug's posts and yeah, he's probably scum.
No scumhunting, no content but theory on the setup. No interactions with Rhand also looks bad. His votes look like they're going out just to look like he's doing something, but they're not attached to any scumhunting questions or anything trying to figure out the game; it's just busywork.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Ok, let's take a moment to go over the implications of the "lynch as many times as we want" rule. Here's a list of what we could do (ignoring doc saves and winning early)
A) Lynch 1 Day1, Lynch 1 Day2, Lynch 2 Day3
Allowable mislynches: 2 (but the second only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
H) Lynch 6 Day1
Allowable mislynches: 4 (but the fourth only unlocks after lynching 1 scum)
So, we have a tradeoff to make between having more mislynches to play with vs having more information from night actions by deciding whether 4, 5, or 6 of the possible kills this game are directed by the thread.
Additionally, we can decide which lynches we want to maximize flip information on. Compare E) and F) assuming we've lynched twice and we're considering the same player for our 3rd lynch in both scenarios. In E), we'd have more information before actually making that 3rd lynch (#1 & #2's flips + everybody's Night actions). In F) we'd have less information for that lynch, but /more/ information for lynches #4 and #5, because we'd also have #3's flip (though the utility of this could be less than that because of losing the night action from #3's possible role)
So, as an open question to the thread, which of these lynch scenarios should we pursue? (I have an opinion on this, but I'll be withholding my answer until more of the thread has checked in)
Setup speculation but withholds an opinion, wants others to give theirs first? First time I read this my eyes glazed over a bit since I would have to actually do the math to see if his predictions for mislynches etc. are accurate. Reading it again now I'm interested to know why he wouldn't just weigh in on the best course of action (as others did) rather than waiting for responses from the thread.
I think the Doctor, Ascetic, and Tracker should claim, possibly also the Watcher, and they should have lynch immunity for Day 1.
On Night 1, the Watcher targets the Doctor, the Doctor targets the Tracker, and the Tracker runs loose. We lynch on behavior and reconvene later on, and don't waste our investigations or protections on the Ascetic.
Any input on this? At the very least, the Ascetic should claim on Day 1 as they are effectively a Miller, here.
Doctor and Tracker should both claim if they're facing a lynch (and we'll consider moving the lynch elsewhere at that point), but they should absolutely /NOT/ claim right away. Giving people lynch immunity from the start of the day1 absolutely wreck's town's ability to do votal analysis later.
Besides that, I think your plan is exceptionally bad if we only plan on having 2 day phases instead of 3. You're basically making the watcher unable to catch fakeclaims and/or the nk, AND the doctor unable to bounce a kill in order to get a guaranteed Tracker result and more power roles alive going into Night 2. Even if we do have a Night 2, it also loses a lot of value in worlds where any of doc/tracker/watcher are scum because you're giving the doc and watcher safe things to trueclaim and a built in explanation why they didn't catch anybody/bounce a kill, and getting a guaranteed tracker result doesn't do much if the tracker is scum and doesn't have to worry about getting caught out by the Watcher or Ascetic.
As far as an Ascetic claim goes, I do think that the upside of not wasting our tracks/docs on him probably outweighs telling the scumteam which player won't be getting protected toNight and him being able to catch certain varieties of fakeclaims. But he still should /NOT/ claim right now, again because it ruins votal stuff for the entire day. If we decide the Ascetic should claim, they should do so at the last possible moment before Night.
I agree with most of what was said here. He does focus a bit too much on fakeclaims though, which seems odd considering the open setup. I doubt anyone would fakeclaim in this game.(nb)
Long answer:
Given the fact that GJ is the gamehost, I considered it and considered including no-lynch scenarios in my list. But, no-lynching in a setup that doesn't include guaranteed strong town info roles doesn't do much, especially when scum can just generally true-claim. And it completely blanks Day1 for votal analysis.
That's where I disagree. If scum needs to lie, then that creates dichotomies.
We can just lynch those.
If they don't lie, they might have to clear townies.
Scum don't need to lie in this setup, and them telling the truth doesn't really clear anybody.
So here he completely dismisses the possibility of fakeclaiming, after his previous post where he talks about having more nights so we can catch fakeclaims... Inconsistent from one post to the next.
We have our requirements. Game on! With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is July 18th.
<.<
There's only 5 people around so far so somebody confirmed without posting in the thread. Which would be Killjoy, Ghosting, or
Day1 Vote DoTArchon
Must be busy in scumchat, huh?
Interesting that it's me, Ghosting and Killjoy that are mentioned here, if he is scum one of Ghosting/Killjoy is scum or its all town and he's avoiding talking about his buddy.
There's a difference between "Scum don't need to lie, so a plan whose primary benefit is catching scum lying is bad" and "Scum won't ever lie, so we don't need to hedge against them lying". Also, while my current valuation for this setup is "Scum probably shouldn't lie outside of a couple specific gambits", I'm not naive enough to think that everybody else in this game, most of whom I haven't played with and all of whom come from a completely different meta than what I'm used to, will have the same valuation I do. Scum could disagree with me on this, scum could have the roles for "a couple specific gambits", or scum could just be bad at open setups without set alignments for roles.
I understand the normal role of a watcher yes. That's not how it works in this game though. It's still a toss up who to believe between the watcher and the killer, with no real time to sort out what's what. Do the math, we won't have the luxury of lynching one, going to night for a reveal, then lynching the other.
The same applies to the tracker.
This is actually part of why I'd like our plan to be an option select between B) and C).
Had you thought about this issue when you said that you were going to /barn Nacho on 2 lynches Day1 bring best?
Response to Grimclaw pointing out the inconsistency I mention above. Even more inconsistent now, it's gone from "PR's can help catch fakeclaims" to "scum don't need to lie" to "scum might gambit or just play poorly".
I really, really think that it's important to be working with as much information as possible before we have a chance of losing; in the case of B, if we mislynch once, we have no information until the game is over, which is incredibly brutal. In the case of C, we don't know if we're about to win or about to lose and I think that's sucks a lot.
Don't get me wrong, option E) is easily the third best option from my initial list (and 4 of the other options are completely unacceptable), and I'd be fine going with it.
I'd just prefer to only do one lynch toDay because:
1. If we have duplicate claims during massclaim, I'd like the option of lynching both. Not necessarily because that's what we'd do, but because the threat of doing so makes scum gambits far less likely and strengthens town power roles.
2. The scumteam knows the setup. We don't. They know if its better for their role and player distribution to have 2 days or 3 days. I think it would better for town to maintain strategic ambiguity on that point until after the massclaim on Day2. And I think that the average strength of plans B) and C) is better than D) and E), mostly because I think option D) is much weaker than the other 3.
3. The more wagons we run up today, the more claims we're going to run into. This is part of the playing the game, but keeping roles on the down low as much as possible is in our interest toDay.
4. I don't think that there's going to be much separation between our two wagons today if we go for lynching two. People just aren't going to care enough on Day1 to reconsider or draw new lines. While I think that Day2, we won't have as much of that problem because we'll either have a pile of lynches to find the scumbuddy and we won't need to do much reconsidering. -OR- we'll need to the second lynch that day like we're in LYLO, which usually does a great job of focusing people's minds.
As far as your concern, not knowing if we're in LYLO or not, that just isn't as much of a concern for me. The other sites I usually play on play -Hunt setups with no flips. I'm used to not knowing if I'm in LYLO or not, and having to plan for multiple possible worlds. Its very very doable, AND it gives you another strong tell to look for (scum know whether you're in LYLO or not, and obviously will be voting very differently if you are).
MY only concern is that I'm not sure we'll actually be up for the logistics of lynching 4 people in a single phase. That's roughly equivilent to 72 hour phases if we spread them out, which I can do, but idk about the rest of the playerlist. If the group really doesn't think that we could actually follow through on a 4 lynch day phase, I'd be fine going with the more conservative and lower payoff option E). Going for the high damage combo doesn't really matter if you drop it half way through.
I know he hasn't played on our site before (other than in OtG and he died early there), but what sticks out is the comment about not worrying about knowimg if we're in LyLo or not. I just can't reconcile a town mindset with that thought. As Nacho points out, the type of game they play there (I've read through a witchhunt game when he mentioned in the OtG spec thread that there was one looking to fill and I got incredibly confused by the mechanics of it) differs greatly from regular mafia. The only reason I can think that he wouldnt worry about LyLo is if he is scum and would know (which he points out).
@mallorean: What information were you hoping to attain by slowrolling which option you thought was best?
Literally anything? Not triple posting in the first 5 post of the thread? Not starting the conversation I'm having with Nacho right now until everybody had showed up and posted at least once (oops, that one didn't happen)?
If we are lynching two people today, how should we budget our time? Should we set a soft deadline for ourselves to lynch one player by next monday, and then spend the second week on our second lynch? Or should we spend the full two weeks discussing before lynching both targets back to back before deadline? Something in between?
1. It's a nice option to have, sure, but I don't think it's an option that offers us significant advantage. Mafia can only fake a guilty if they have either the Watcher or the Tracker roles and they don't get lynched D1, and typically, claim situations like this end up in obvious alignments based on offense or lack of defense.
2. Regardless of scumteam distribution, scum having as many nights as possible is only to their advantage; if I rolled scum in this game, I would likely push a multi-night plan because it would increase the chances of me being able to take out people who are threats in day play. If scum only get one night to shoot and they have multiple guards against shooting people, then they won't be able to shoot who they want without getting ****ed over.
3. Don't care about roles; town can have them, mafia can have them. Claims won't be able to save people today, scummy people get lynched regardless of their role claim.
4. I disagree completely with this point; why do you think that it's in the case? I plan on playing hard and fast, and I plan and having influence while I do so. If Iso is scum, I have a little bit of vengeance that I've been seeking, and if I'm town, I'm sure he will play as hard as fast as I will. We are not in a large enough game where there's an excuse for apathy or laziness in these first couple of lynches, and leading by example is typically a pretty effective strategy and I promise I'll be a good role model for all the lurking girls and boys.
Witchhunt is a much, much different world than this game is. In Witch Hunt, you have a Priest who has hard information and an Acolyte who has hard information and oracles and etc etc that compensate for the lack of flips; in this game type, we have a watcher and a tracker for our investigative roles that could end up accomplishing absolutely nothing. Working with no flips in this game means working with no hard information and believe me when I say that is not something that we want at all.
Your concern on the 4 lynch day phase is noted, but again, I don't forsee it becoming a problem. If the town is active and engaged, we will win this game. If it isn't (which is the only reason we wouldn't be able to swing the 4 lynch day phase), then we're probably losing and a more conservative lynch plan won't be able to compensate for it.
1. Sure
2. Mixed. Even with the available protection, there's definitely a player type that the heuristic "If the mafia haven't shot you by DayX, you're mafia" applies to. AND you've already said that you'd consider anybody that gets Ascetic to fall into that as well. Also, if you truly think "Scum are the ones that would push multi-night plans", I'm not sure why you keep pushing your cards to the middle of the table here, before everybody has even checked in. You can think I'm trying to have it both ways because I /am/. Strategic ambiguity is good here, letting both options seem viable in early discussions is good here.
3. No. If its GOOD that scum have to try to avoid protection like you said in your previous point, then its BAD if they know who has what, because its easier to avoid protection. I am NOT advocating for swinging the lynch off somebody just because they claimed doctor. I AM saying that fewer actual lynches will result in fewer claims. Weighting this as less important than having an additional flip before committing to lynch #3 is fine, weighting this 0 is not.
4. My only experience here so far has been Off the Grid mafia. Let's just say that it wasn't the shining pinnacle of activity that I would have hoped for. If you say that this playerlist is going to be better about that, I'll take you on your word. Until then, I'll be a bit dubious. And when I say, separation between wagons, I mean, I would be very disappointed if our second lynch today was just the counterwagon for the first lynch. If you're promising actual reconsideration, I'd ideally like to see 4 separate real wagons (3 would also be fine). First lynch and a legit counterwagon, second lynch on somebody completely different AND a counterwagon on somebody else completely different. That's how I try to play Day2, and I'm sincerely worried that doing Day2 on Day1 will result in that not happening.
I fully understand the difference between this setup and WH. But we're not arguing between the difference between no hard information and lots of hard information. We're currently arguing about the difference between 1 lynch w/flip + wagon information + night actions, vs 2 lynches w/flips + wagon information + night actions. I'm saying that 2 lynches has diminishing returns on wagon information and could affect night actions in a bad way, you're saying that you won't let there be diminishing returns on wagon information, night actions are irrelevant, and an additional flip worth of information outweighs everything else.
I don't quite follow the point about the diminishing returns, @Mal could you clarify that for me? The argument is that town not knowing if we're in LyLo or not is very bad, and not being concerned about it stands out.
I haven't read much yet so will come back to soon to add more detailed comments, but I think we should aim to lynch just one person today. There's a lot of information to gain from lynching two people day one, but I think the risk of lynching two town would be too great to chance. It'd be different if we mass claimed, but there's no reason to do that just yet. I do somewhat support a mass claim D2, maybe D3.
What's the difference in risk between lynching two town on Day1, and lynching 1 town on Day1 and 1 town as our first lynch on Day2.
Do you think the game should even go to Day3?
What kind of order should the massclaim you support go in?
If you had to sort the players in the game into two groups based on the most important thing that's happened so far, what defining characteristic would you use to sort them? Give the groupings. How many scum are in each group? Is that because of independent reads, or because of the nature of each group?
Series of questions for Ghosting, not much else happening in this post.
I wouldn't sort them into two groups, I'd just analyze their behaviours and motivations, try to read the posts from a town mindset, from a scum mindset, etc. But if I had to answer your question, I'd probably group it based on how people want the days to go forth. I feel like rushing for a massclaim is inherently scummy, and that wanting multiple town day one also is scummy (also, importantly, we're more likely to lose our PRs before they can do anything if we do mislynch a lot at first).
Ok, here's where my head was at on that. I'd split either based on how many lynches people want Day1
0: Killjoy, Rhand
1: mal, Ghosting, DoTA
2: Nacho, grimclaw, Iso
-OR- based on how many days people want the game to be:
2: Nacho, grimclaw, mal
3: Killjoy, Rhand, Ghosting, DoTA, Iso
I sincerely doubt that both scum would decide to push No-lynch here.
I also think that the other two people pushing for only 2 day phases are both town, especially because the arguments against it have amounted to "But but but the PRs, guys?" I really don't see how scum deal with town controlling 5 kills in an 8 person game. Easier to stall and try to keep it from actually happening than give in.
2. I don't find "alive too long" to be a reliable tell in any form of the word, and don't find the loss of that tell to be particularly significant. Iso is the player with the biggest rep in the game, but if he didn't die N1, I wouldn't be suspicious: hell, I wouldn't even be surprised. I'm pushing all of my cards on the table because it's a high priority to get everyone on the same page with the optimal strategy for this game. I don't have time to mess around and obfuscate things in order to trap scum because I don't know if pushing bad strategies is a scumtell for anyone here or not.
3. And I'm not advocating for claims, period. If you are the doctor and about to get lynched, your claim shouldn't save you, meaning that there is absolutely no point to claiming at all. The only only only claims that should possibly pop are are Ascetic or Bodyguard roles; both can confirm themselves by dying, and while it's not likely that scum will shoot a scummy player for the free kill, it's a possibility that could be worth exploring.
4. I understand your concerns with not being able to get lynches done in time, but I don't think that it's productive to give up on 2 lynches for Day 1 just because you think we can't hit the activity requirements. I don't care so much if counterwagons exist or not; I only care that the two lynches that are being pushed are on people who make sense and is for a good reason. I don't see the point in not considering multiple suspects at once.
I think the extra flip of information is very important because of how that extra flip affects our chances of hitting scum before night. I think your concern about diminishing returns is a valid one, but also a concern that it makes more sense to monitor while the game is in progress; if we can't do two lynches, we can't do two lynches and will adjust if we must, but there's no reason not to push for two lynches while hope is in the air. My opinion on night actions are not necessarily that they are irrelevant; I just feel that they are being severely overvalued this game and am probably overselling their uselessness based on that concern.
2. Sure
3. If this was a noflip setup, I'd 100% agree. But scum will know who we kill even if they don't claim. And even if scum have doc/watcher/bodyguard, they still have to pretend to shoot around protection if we don't lynch them. Which is /good/ because maybe they'll remove a mislynch from our pool. Which, in a game this small with so many mislynches, could checkmate them.
4. Sure
Ok, here's the argument I was missing before for only lynching one player toDay:
If we're lynching two people today, its because we're trying to maximize our chance of hitting scum. So right after our first lynch, our second lynch is not "The person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit scum" it should be "the person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit town". So, lynching 2 people Day1 is not a plan that will ever hit 2 scum in the first two lynches. Which is fine, that's being kind of greedy and unreasonable anyways. But that does a couple things.
1. If we're correct on our first guess, lynching somebody based on that person being town gives us less lynches to aim at possible buddies.
2. If we want to hit scum in our first two guesses, it would be useful if we had an anti-aligned pair where we're pretty certain one is scum. Massclaim could auto give us this, Rhand/Killjoy need to interact with each other more before I'd give them that rating.
So basically, 2 lynches on Day1 gives us a higher chance of hitting scum Day1, but lower reward for doing so. I also think that it decreases our chances of hitting scum in our first 3 lynches, because I think the additional information before lynch 2 is more important than the additional information before lynch 3.
And that's in addition to people agreeing to shruglynch one person toDay if they believe that it will also let them get enough support for the lynch they really want. Don't think that's a healthy dynamic for wagons.
(Got this far before I dozed off 3 hours ago ) More speculation
He makes sense with what he's saying but there's no attempts to start or join a wagon. His vote on page 1 for Ghosting is still just floating there with nothing to back it up.
Hello all.
I've been following along a bit and I have two things to say before jumping into a reread:
First, I don't feel the need to engage in any setup discussion. My predecessor has done quite enough of that, and lynching twice today seems by far the best plan.
Second, Vote Rhand
Because I am the hero this town needs right now.
Hopefully he flips scum and that replaces all the ill will mallorean earned with said setup discussion.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
grimclaw - Very villagery. Do Not Lynch.
killjoy - That is the entrance of a man that has not read a mafia QT. Do Not Lynch.
iso/nachomamma - Grouping these two together, because both have been rather villagery, but are both capable of faking it.
I cannot in good conscience say "Do Not Lynch" but certainly not today.
That leaves ghosting and dotarchon.
I do not see anything particularly wolfish from either, but it's been reasonably easy to hide in this particular thread (partially my slot's fault).
Of the two, I would say dotarchon is more likely scum with rhand while ghosting is unaligned. So I prefer ghosting for lynch number 2 as we really need to hit one and not get greedy.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Curiosity killed the cat. But for awhile, I was a suspect.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
I'm not scumreading Iso, which should answer both of your questions. I'd place him right now in the "need to pay attention to" category, but that's pretty much where Iso is in any games I've played with him lol.
If Iso is scum, I think it's more likely you're scum with Iso.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
As my post demonstrated, I wasn't clear what his intentions were, and was just going over some possibilities that came to mind. I understand why he's advocating it, and I agree with the logic, I just don't know if his intentions are good. Scum would want to know who the ascetic is so they don't target them and waste their nightkill. A town ascetic player is more powerful than a scum one, so if ascetic isn't scum, scum should push harder for them to claim than town. It isn't a simple matter of understanding the logic or one view being right, it's determining the motivations behind the advocation.
Interesting though that you jump to the defense of this.
I'm not scumreading Iso, which should answer both of your questions. I'd place him right now in the "need to pay attention to" category, but that's pretty much where Iso is in any games I've played with him lol. We-oo-we-oo-weeee-oooooo, keh!
If Iso is scum, I think it's more likely you're scum with Iso.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Maybe it's just me then lol, I just thought it was obvious with all the buddying and then the most recent defense. My reads usually suck until we've had at least a wagon or two though so who knows.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Ok, here's where my head was at on that. I'd split either based on how many lynches people want Day1
0: Killjoy, Rhand
1: mal, Ghosting, DoTA
2: Nacho, grimclaw, Iso
-OR- based on how many days people want the game to be:
2: Nacho, grimclaw, mal
3: Killjoy, Rhand, Ghosting, DoTA, Iso
I sincerely doubt that both scum would decide to push No-lynch here.
I also think that the other two people pushing for only 2 day phases are both town, especially because the arguments against it have amounted to "But but but the PRs, guys?" I really don't see how scum deal with town controlling 5 kills in an 8 person game. Easier to stall and try to keep it from actually happening than give in.
2. Sure
3. If this was a noflip setup, I'd 100% agree. But scum will know who we kill even if they don't claim. And even if scum have doc/watcher/bodyguard, they still have to pretend to shoot around protection if we don't lynch them. Which is /good/ because maybe they'll remove a mislynch from our pool. Which, in a game this small with so many mislynches, could checkmate them.
4. Sure
Ok, here's the argument I was missing before for only lynching one player toDay:
If we're lynching two people today, its because we're trying to maximize our chance of hitting scum. So right after our first lynch, our second lynch is not "The person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit scum" it should be "the person most likely to be scum if our first lynch hit town". So, lynching 2 people Day1 is not a plan that will ever hit 2 scum in the first two lynches. Which is fine, that's being kind of greedy and unreasonable anyways. But that does a couple things.
1. If we're correct on our first guess, lynching somebody based on that person being town gives us less lynches to aim at possible buddies.
2. If we want to hit scum in our first two guesses, it would be useful if we had an anti-aligned pair where we're pretty certain one is scum. Massclaim could auto give us this, Rhand/Killjoy need to interact with each other more before I'd give them that rating.
So basically, 2 lynches on Day1 gives us a higher chance of hitting scum Day1, but lower reward for doing so. I also think that it decreases our chances of hitting scum in our first 3 lynches, because I think the additional information before lynch 2 is more important than the additional information before lynch 3.
And that's in addition to people agreeing to shruglynch one person toDay if they believe that it will also let them get enough support for the lynch they really want. Don't think that's a healthy dynamic for wagons.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Killjoy
Grimclaw
Rhand (3) - Iso, Grimclaw, Nachomamma8
DoTArchon (1) - Ghosting
Nachomamma8
Ghosting (1) - mallorean_thug
Iso
mallorean_thug
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is July 17th 11:59pm.
(Time is not a luxury you should be willing to waste...)
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I am supremely hungover, but will try to make a full post here anyways.
-
Am I still doing the Grimclaw thing where I explain why I was scumreading him, or can we all just agree that he's town now? We have 6 days, so I'd rather not waste my time doing things I don't need to do.
-
@Grimclaw: I would still like the Ascetic to claim. Nothing has changed in that respect. Why?
-
@mallorean: As a follow-up to Grimclaw's questions, who can and can't be scum with Rhand/Killjoy?
-
I feel good about the Rhand wagon because:
1. All three people on it are town.
2. Nobody has opportunistically jumped in to bandwagon Rhand.
Let's do this.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
actul in favor of not actually lynching anyone d1. I feel like we get more info from night actions than we do trying to guess who is scum with such limited info.
-
Anyway, Grimclaw, your opening post complaining about people putting forth effort in the early game rubbed me the wrong way, and struck me as something scum would say. Admittedly, you did follow it up with another post of no substance and continued to complain (this time about RVS), so I guess I should have sensed a trend. Your setup analysis felt like busywork. While admittedly, a lot of what was going on was setup analysis, I already had my eye on you, so it just dug you deeper in for me.
It actually really threw me off when you voted Rhand, because I wasn't expecting that - it felt like a really early bus/buddying up to me, which completely homed me in on you. However, after talking to you for a bit, I could sense your townie mindset behind your posts, so I decided to give you the benefit of the doubt with your earlier actions.
So, yeah - that's what that was all about.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
If we don't lynch anyone, do you think the Ascetic should claim? If not, what bounties of information do you expect to gain if all PRs target the Ascetic?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
The part of your logic where you understood why he advocated it wasn't really clear; it looked like you were playing dumb about why he could possibly want the Ascetic to out (aka there's no way in hell he could think of it would be if he was scum or PR).
I think this paranoia generally looks good; I don't think that I'd be so sensitive about Iso getting heat that I'd field his questions if we were scum together, but to each their own!
I agree that there's quite possibly a chance that one of Rhand/Killjoy is town, but this game isn't active enough where I'm trying to go for the magical perfect game. I don't think both of them are town because their collective contribution to the game has been abysmal. I don't think that flipping one and then using another full day to think about flipping things is going to be productive; I think hitting both of them has a great chance of hitting scum and I think we win if we go into Day 2 with one scum down.
I don't think I'm following your argument here, sorry.
Unless scum is a doctor/bodyguard combo, they will have to shoot around protections which means that either of those two outing and claiming means nothing. You'd be better publicly directing the doctor/bodyguard combo than you would be hoping you can force scum to make a bad kill through protection shenanigans unless I'm missing something?
1. If we're correct about out first guess, then it's okay if we're slightly more likely to be wrong on our second guess. Ultimately, I'm voting anyone who seems like they are the likeliest to be scum; I'm not overly worried about associations, I'm worried about who makes the towniest looking cases, who wants it the most, who has the most genuine reads and view of the game state. Your suggestion is 1 lynch Day 1 and 4 lynches Day 2 which also seems ridiculous since 1) if you're worried about double lynching on Day 1, how the hell do we quadruple lynch tomorrow?, and 2) you told me that you weren't worried about knowing if we were in lylo or not, why do you rate the value of the Day 1 lynch so highly? I think that your shruglynch worries are just paranoia.
Please let me know if I'm skating over any of your arguments, my bloodlust sense is tingling.
@Ghosting: Why aren't you voting Rhand?
I could've sworn I made a post about the Dota/Rhand dichotomy and how I'm okay with lynching either, and then voting Rhand, but maybe it was late at night and I didn't submit it? I clearly have that memory, but anyway, as suggested, I'm fine with voting Rhand.
Vote Rhand.
HOWEVER, I'd like him to claim before anyone hammers. I understand he could be scum, but I still think it's valuable information.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I'm very very uncomfortable with mallorean still doing nothing but arguing about theory; I'm all about discussing theory because it's extremely important, but he's allowed that discussion to take priority over finding scum and lynching them and that's a big red flag from someone who seems to realize the importance of aggressive scumhunting in this setup.
Liking a couple of Ghosting's recent posts; it seems like he's genuine enough. Killjoy's recent posts are also pretty ballsy if he's scum with Rhand (Rhand as his only townie, Iso and me as his only scumreads doesn't look like scum creating reads that will further a scum wincon). I'm certainly contemplating how crazy it would be to lynch mallorean over Killjoy for our double dip of Day 1. I mean, don't get me wrong, I think his theory stuff was good and genuine and he definitely started out the game on a right foot, but I need to see some work here and I'm not seeing jack *****.
This is the deadline, give or take an hour. 8 days have passed since this game began. It's time for a lynch. Get moving forward.
DoT/Rhand dichotomy?
That sounds interesting, talk to me about it.
Pretty much everything you need to know is in Dota's post #62, and my response in #64. Looks like scumbuddy comes in to defend their friend, or scum comes in to earn town points; I'm obviously leaning towards the former as you can tell from my vote history.
I'd like both of them to post more so we can further analyze the relationship between them both, but I don't know when we can expect that. :/
Curious though, @Dota and @Rhand, do you guys think the other could be scum?
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
If you're waiting on Rhand posts, you'll probably be waiting until post-game.
I think that you probably are looking at the situation too shallowly; just because someone defends someone else doesn't mean their scumbuddies and just because an attack is inconsistent doesn't mean that someone is hiding something (example: you attacking DoT for his position on claims but not Grimclaw).
I tend to play pretty poorly early game, so I very well be looking at the situation too shallowly; I do a lot better when I have lots of reads to work off of. I do, however, see it as unusual, considering why Dota chose Rhand alone to focus his defense on, and why he was so
I'm leaning town on him at the moment. Earlier I thought he was scum for asking me to ask him questions, but I quickly figured out why he was asking me that.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
What about my post screamed "town!" to you?
-
I think we're one vote away from lynching Rhand. Can we get a hammer if he doesn't claim within the next day or so?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
And why he was so...?
[/quote]
I think that you're confusing Mallorean and Grimclaw here.
Killjoy
Grimclaw
Rhand (4) - Iso, Grimclaw, Nachomamma8, Ghosting
DoTArchon
Nachomamma8
Ghosting (1) - mallorean_thug
Iso
mallorean_thug
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is July 17th 11:59pm.
Tick tock, tick tock.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
...
*Clears throat*
Anyway:
@Grimclaw: Yes, I'd like that. I'm always looking to improve my play, so finding new ways to be more transparently town is great for me.
-
I'm concerned that if we start discussing a second lynch that we'll apathetically not lynch Rhand and lynch the second choice, instead.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I should probably take the time in this lull to read mallorean and Ghosting's posts, but...eh. That sounds like effort.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Every single one of these reads (except maybe the Rhand read) is a fencesit, or allows you to later flip views and say you had your suspicions early on. I'm certainly uncomfortable with this post.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
I feel like I asked you a question, something to do with who Rhand can and can't be scum with. Did you answer it? My eyes have been glazing over when I skim through your posts.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Enjoy your last week of freedom.
You very likely did ask it and I definitely don't think I answered it, but I'm about to head to bed so I'll make sure it's in my next post. Have to be up super early and already awake too late lol.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
For now, it does yes.
Mafia Stats 2016-2017:
Town: 1-0 | Scum: 2-0 | Neutral: 1-1
Thanks!
I'm in no hurry, just so long as you can get it to me before Night.
D: you lied to me
But yeah, that's fine - just don't forget!
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
@Iso: Awesome news about the job
I started an iso/PbPA to prove why I thought you were scum. The reread didn't work out that way though... I was a bit overzealous, might be due to the fact that I had you as a strong townread in Ace Attorney.
@Ghosting: You asked if I think Rhand is scum, answered that at the beginning of the post. My top scum read now is Mal_Thug, he is very different from how I remember him in Off the Grid Mafia. He took charge there from Day 1 and was a strong presence right up until he was NK'd (on Night 1).
@Mal_Thug: Can we at least get a town/scum list from you? You haven't had much to say about the game other than setup speculation...
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm 100% in agreement with this post. I am not horrendously attached to my scumread on Rhand, but I do remember Predator Mafia where Rhand played obnoxiously similarly to this one (lurked, was never seen again). I think there's a good enough chance of him flipping scum where I'm very very happy to flip him, but if he were to make a series of posts before the deadline ran out that even kind of looked town then I'd be happy to sway the wagon. I don't buy that there is no possible way that he could have posted anything since he's been out on cruise, and if he really is that busy, welp.
And of course, I agree with this as well.
I think the thing that bothers me the most about mallorean is the impression of that they gave of being an active and engaged town player, and then getting lost in the black hole of setup spec and never coming up for air. And maybe this particular point shouldn't bother me, but I really didn't like when I asked them to start scumhunting and drop out of setup spec world and they didn't so much as acknowledge the post. It felt unnatural; I feel that as town I'd be refreshing the page for a little while after I post to see if I could engage with someone and I don't think that I ignore that post as town. I can see a scum!Mallorean who isn't ready to start faking serious scumhunting by that point ignoring the post, though.
I'm okay with Ghosting's recent posting; again, not yet groundbreaking (and he doesn't really expect it to be), but I feel like he's mostly genuinely trying to solve the game and as a bonus I can't see a world where he mixes up you and mallorean and is also somehow scumpartners with mallorean.
This isn't going to happen.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Apathy is a plague that is haunting MTGS mafia, be the chance you want to see in others, etc.
At the very least, read Mallorean's posts and tell me what you think of them before I get too lost in a very dark tunnel.
Hi Ghosting!
The reason you gave for mallorean was not actually something that mallorean did.
Could you look over their posts and give me a more comprehensive view of them?
First off, if you have the time (please prioritize catching up with the game first), I'd like if you laid out some of your reasoning for suspecting Iso in the now-abandoned wall. What made you change your mind?
I haven't mislynched Rhand or seen Rhand mislynched in a game that I've played with him. From my experience with him as town, he tends to hit the ground running as far as scumhunting goes (see: Off the Grid where he started with a vote and then began pressuring people that he thought was a mafia pair immediately). I haven't seen that same drive this game nor anything close to it and thus am completely happy with him earning death. I am a bit sad that you didn't respond to my earlier counter to your townread; you originally thought that he was town because the plan was "too ballsy", but I outlined that I thought he wouldn't present a setup spec case that he didn't believe was a good one (thanks to Iso's presence in the game) regardless of alignment.
I'm pretty much 100% agreed with Mal but would love for you to open up more of your thought processes to make yourself a bit more trustable. I think that one of your strengths as a player is that you look very very very very transparently town when you engage a bit and if you brought that fire in this game, it would be very much appreciated by me.
I think that discussing lynch #2 before it happens is healthier for the gamestate than holding off on any meaningful discussion because we're afraid a lynch is going to get away; it's a risk, sure, but the rewards far outweigh the risk. I will not be moving my vote from Rhand until he looks town and I will be encouraging his lynch incessantly in the meantime; I'm cool giving him time because he's pretty easy to read in general but if he doesn't deliver, he doesn't live.
No scumhunting, no content but theory on the setup. No interactions with Rhand also looks bad. His votes look like they're going out just to look like he's doing something, but they're not attached to any scumhunting questions or anything trying to figure out the game; it's just busywork.
I'm fine with him dying.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Setup speculation but withholds an opinion, wants others to give theirs first? First time I read this my eyes glazed over a bit since I would have to actually do the math to see if his predictions for mislynches etc. are accurate. Reading it again now I'm interested to know why he wouldn't just weigh in on the best course of action (as others did) rather than waiting for responses from the thread.
I agree with most of what was said here. He does focus a bit too much on fakeclaims though, which seems odd considering the open setup. I doubt anyone would fakeclaim in this game.(nb)
So here he completely dismisses the possibility of fakeclaiming, after his previous post where he talks about having more nights so we can catch fakeclaims... Inconsistent from one post to the next. Interesting that it's me, Ghosting and Killjoy that are mentioned here, if he is scum one of Ghosting/Killjoy is scum or its all town and he's avoiding talking about his buddy.
Response to Grimclaw pointing out the inconsistency I mention above. Even more inconsistent now, it's gone from "PR's can help catch fakeclaims" to "scum don't need to lie" to "scum might gambit or just play poorly".
I know he hasn't played on our site before (other than in OtG and he died early there), but what sticks out is the comment about not worrying about knowimg if we're in LyLo or not. I just can't reconcile a town mindset with that thought. As Nacho points out, the type of game they play there (I've read through a witchhunt game when he mentioned in the OtG spec thread that there was one looking to fill and I got incredibly confused by the mechanics of it) differs greatly from regular mafia. The only reason I can think that he wouldnt worry about LyLo is if he is scum and would know (which he points out).
I don't quite follow the point about the diminishing returns, @Mal could you clarify that for me? The argument is that town not knowing if we're in LyLo or not is very bad, and not being concerned about it stands out.
Series of questions for Ghosting, not much else happening in this post.
Null post.
(Got this far before I dozed off 3 hours ago ) More speculation
He makes sense with what he's saying but there's no attempts to start or join a wagon. His vote on page 1 for Ghosting is still just floating there with nothing to back it up.
It won't take long, I promise.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
I've been following along a bit and I have two things to say before jumping into a reread:
First, I don't feel the need to engage in any setup discussion. My predecessor has done quite enough of that, and lynching twice today seems by far the best plan.
Second,
Vote Rhand
Because I am the hero this town needs right now.
Hopefully he flips scum and that replaces all the ill will mallorean earned with said setup discussion.
killjoy - That is the entrance of a man that has not read a mafia QT. Do Not Lynch.
iso/nachomamma - Grouping these two together, because both have been rather villagery, but are both capable of faking it.
I cannot in good conscience say "Do Not Lynch" but certainly not today.
That leaves ghosting and dotarchon.
I do not see anything particularly wolfish from either, but it's been reasonably easy to hide in this particular thread (partially my slot's fault).
Of the two, I would say dotarchon is more likely scum with rhand while ghosting is unaligned. So I prefer ghosting for lynch number 2 as we really need to hit one and not get greedy.
Can you case DoT and Ghosting?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player