2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
zomg's early posts about Iso could fit an inexperienced scum player interacting with his buddy. zomg mentioned TF2 where he was mislynched day 1. His posts in TF2 are quite a bit longer and seem rather relaxed compared to his posting in this game.
My posts in TF2 were mainly Faked posting restrictions acting as a news reporter, while they were longer in # of words they were less actual content
I was referring to your posts after you dropped the weird style. 93, 95, 98, 111, 141.
I don't need to re-read pages 3-5. Pages 1-2 have all the information I need to solve the game.
So you have me as scum purely on RVS; interesting.
Why would you not have claimed if you realized it was MyLo? What is the difference that 4 town vs 3 town remaining makes for your decision?
No. I have you as scum based on a myriad of other things, as well. Choosing to ignore them doesn't mean they're not there.
I wouldn't have claimed if I realized we potentially had another Day because there was no point in outing myself in the event that you hadn't figured out I was the Bodyguard. There was another Night where I could have done something useful by getting myself killed instead of Roleblocked.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I think that AG and Arcwind are going about this the wrong way. If they expect us to vote anyone else, they really need to be convincing me that Vaimes/Kosa are scum, because if either of them are town, that's the scenario.
Stop trying to convince me you're town and catch some scum. Seriously, it'll go a long way.
More importantly, AG and Arcwind need to also be coming up with arguments for why we should lynch one over the other - again, unless they're supposing that Vaimes/Kosa is the scumteam.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I've paranoia'd all day about this game on my phone and to me, there's simply no way AG isn't scum.
AG's #121 is extremely self-conscious: he says it in a way as if he knew a Bodyguard claim would happen, when in fact, the odds for a bodyguard claim to happen were actually 50% from a town standpoint. But somehow he's sure it's coming.
Then, Iso claims. The thing is, AG only delivers his "I was baiting for the fakeclaim, Iso is scum" post after Vaimes states that fakeclaiming!Iso is a possibility and being questioned by him (Vaimes) over #121. AG's post #135 comes after Iso's claim and yet there's no mention of it. Ok, so you set a trap hoping to catch scum with it, you supposedly believe they fell for it, but instead of going "gotcha!" right away, you... talk about how you knew who the vig was? It doesn't add up.
Then AG justifies his "Iso is scum" stance with probability. Since the odds of Iso being gambitting scum, through sheer randomness, is 66% v. the 33% he's actually the Bodyguard (plus the "Iso factor", as he puts it), that means he's scum! One less guys woot!
Only it doesn't work like that. That's fear-mongering plain and simple.
And when I questioned him about that flawed logic, his answer is:
Yes, just from the bodyguard claim Iso would be quite a bit more likely to be scum than town. It's not the standard I'd like to use, but after the short day 1, it's what we have.
"So yeah, probability is all we have, life is tough bruh it sucks we're in MyLo huh"
...:weird:
There's no scumhunting other than his Iso quarrel. Barely any questionings outside of the WIFOM-y "why would I do that as scum instead of X". Again, it doesn't add up.
When the real paranoia kicks in, however, is that I'm seriously considering Iso as his buddy. It's what makes the most sense.
From the standpoint that AG had inside knowledge about the fact that there would be a Bodyguard claim toDay, there are only two options:
1) Iso indeed is the Bodyguard and the scumteam has a Roleblocker;
2) Iso is scum with AG and they both discussed the fakeclaim in the scumchat.
Vaimes said in his scumteam possibilities post that AG/Iso was unlikely because the way they're bickering doesn't seem like distancing and they could've both turned on him after his "fear-mongering" post. I wholeheartedly disagree exactly because you've antecipated it on that post:
Okay, I'm doing four posts in a row because I just noticed something that we all really need to think long and hard about. I don't doubt scum are going to FoS me for "fear-mongering" and try to lynch me for the mafia win, but this needs to be said
It would be far too obvious if they jumped on you right after you said that. And from that moment on you started contributing with lots of content and scumhunting effort, so if they're the scumteam, jumping on you wouldn't be the easiest task. It's completely possible, and actually likely since AG ignored Iso's claim until you called him on it, that AG decided to bus Iso in order to not look bad since the fakeclaiming went awry. And with the way Iso behaved regarding Seppel's claim, I'd say this is by far the most likely scenario.
If they're scum, with the way they're bussing each other, whoever doesn't get lynched toDay gets a free card out of jail toMorrow exactly because of how you're accessing the situation. Ophidia is probably NK'ed for being the only 100% conftown around and we're stuck into a 4-man fistfight in which the one who probably looks the best is one of them by proxy.
I could be wrong about Iso and either Vaimes or zomg are nextleveling me, but regardless, AG is scum independently from Iso. I won't be moving this vote toDay.
I've paranoia'd all day about this game on my phone and to me, there's simply no way AG isn't scum.
AG's #121 is extremely self-conscious: he says it in a way as if he knew a Bodyguard claim would happen, when in fact, the odds for a bodyguard claim to happen were actually 50% from a town standpoint. But somehow he's sure it's coming.
I wasn't certain there would be a claim, but it was roughly 50% there was an actual bodyguard in the game, the chance of someone claiming bodyguard at all is higher.
Then, Iso claims. The thing is, AG only delivers his "I was baiting for the fakeclaim, Iso is scum" post after Vaimes states that fakeclaiming!Iso is a possibility and being questioned by him (Vaimes) over #121. AG's post #135 comes after Iso's claim and yet there's no mention of it. Ok, so you set a trap hoping to catch scum with it, you supposedly believe they fell for it, but instead of going "gotcha!" right away, you... talk about how you knew who the vig was? It doesn't add up.
Asking for the bodyguard claim wasn't a complete trap. I already said that I planned to mention the possibility but Iso's claim is scummy. I also wanted to get reactions to Iso's claim from other players since we do have a 2nd scum to find.
Then AG justifies his "Iso is scum" stance with probability. Since the odds of Iso being gambitting scum, through sheer randomness, is 66% v. the 33% he's actually the Bodyguard (plus the "Iso factor", as he puts it), that means he's scum! One less guys woot!
Only it doesn't work like that. That's fear-mongering plain and simple.
Why doesn't it work like that? Unless Iso is less than 50% to gambit, a claim from him is more likely to be a lie than not. It's not the only evidence, but it's a piece.
Yes, just from the bodyguard claim Iso would be quite a bit more likely to be scum than town. It's not the standard I'd like to use, but after the short day 1, it's what we have.
"So yeah, probability is all we have, life is tough bruh it sucks we're in MyLo huh"
...:weird:
There's no scumhunting other than his Iso quarrel. Barely any questionings outside of the WIFOM-y "why would I do that as scum instead of X". Again, it doesn't add up.
Look at Iso's reactions to the attack. He jumped to complaining about how he can't post that often and that my original questions would bias the town against them. He whined rather than explain why he isn't scum. He immediately went OMGUS without even using anything other than attacking him as a reason. Although it appears you are viewing Iso as scum anyways, so I guess I don't need to explain why his defense has been scummy.
Remember when you explained why nolynching doesn't work? Well, we can nolynch tomorrow. I've been looking over who the second scum is, but I'm not nearly as certain about zomg as I am about Iso and I planned on a day 3 nolynch removing 1 of the possibilities for the second scum.
So Vaimes, Kosa has no interest in voting anybody but AG toDay. You and I both agree that AG/Arcwind is the scumteam. And Ophidia has no interest in voting for scum.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The way I see it, Ophidia is the Nightkill no matter what because I'm still Roleblockable mislynchbait and he's confirmed town.
If we don't agree to lynch toDay, the Day will (presumably) end in a No Lynch. (@DoT, please feel free to correct me on this if that's incorrect.)
That means we go into Day 3 with two people who want to lynch Iso, and three people who want to lynch AG and/or Arcwind. Which means that I'm not getting lynched on Day 3.
Ophidia, I'd greatly appreciate if you would vote for someone who actually has a chance of getting lynched toDay so that we don't have to go through this song and dance tomorrow without your voice (as wrong as it may be). You're literally wasting your vote by voting alongside the scum on the only wagon on town, here.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
If deadline is reached without a majority vote, the player with the most votes will be lynched. In the event of a tie, the player who reached that number of votes first will be lynched.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Lets ask this Kosa, if AG is scum, who is his partner
Why are you upset with me attempting to solve the game again? Btw did you _actually_ read all of it? Do you agree or disagree with it? I don't care about yours (and AG's) half-assed percentages. Show me behavior. Talk to me with words, not numbers.
Why doesn't it work like that? Unless Iso is less than 50% to gambit, a claim from him is more likely to be a lie than not. It's not the only evidence, but it's a piece.
Dude, what?
If what you're attempting to paint as truth was true, then:
A standard Mini has 12 people, 9 town 3 scum. Therefore, the chance of Player A being scum is 25%. So Player A is very unlikely to be scum. So Player A isn't scum.
Can't you really see what's wrong with it? What you're saying is that as the chance of a Bodyguard being or not in the game is 50% each, scum is more likely to gambit Bodyguard. As Iso is more likely to gambit than any other player, then he's gambitting scum and that's it. That was your whole initial argument to call Iso scum, and that argument is flawed at its core. You didn't even entertain the possibility of Iso telling the truth, as you flat-out stated: "Iso is scum." Based. Solely. On. Percentages.
And I'm repeating myself here, but you only did so after Vaimes pointed out the Bodyguard issue. So no, I don't believe you. I don't believe you didn't have inside knowledge about either the existence of a Bodyguard because Roleblocker or that Iso would falseclaim so because buddies. I just don't. It's WAY too convenient.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Why doesn't it work like that? Unless Iso is less than 50% to gambit, a claim from him is more likely to be a lie than not. It's not the only evidence, but it's a piece.
Dude, what?
If what you're attempting to paint as truth was true, then:
A standard Mini has 12 people, 9 town 3 scum. Therefore, the chance of Player A being scum is 25%. So Player A is very unlikely to be scum. So Player A isn't scum.
Can't you really see what's wrong with it? What you're saying is that as the chance of a Bodyguard being or not in the game is 50% each, scum is more likely to gambit Bodyguard. As Iso is more likely to gambit than any other player, then he's gambitting scum and that's it. That was your whole initial argument to call Iso scum, and that argument is flawed at its core. You didn't even entertain the possibility of Iso telling the truth, as you flat-out stated: "Iso is scum." Based. Solely. On. Percentages.
And I'm repeating myself here, but you only did so after Vaimes pointed out the Bodyguard issue. So no, I don't believe you. I don't believe you didn't have inside knowledge about either the existence of a Bodyguard because Roleblocker or that Iso would falseclaim so because buddies. I just don't. It's WAY too convenient.
The initial argument also covered how the NK lined up with Iso's target and that Iso being roleblocked seemed way too convenient. I originally had a "probably" in that assertion but wanted the focus on the arguments rather than "probably"; I was aware of the holes but people get way too caught up in them when I explicitly point them out. 66% is a lot more than 25%, it's not going to condemn someone by itself, but it should direct attention. Since then, Iso has been playing like scum. I didn't post before Vaimes because I wanted posts from every player after Iso's claim before posting my argument. How is noticing how free a bodyguard falseclaim would be from the set up "WAY too convenient". It was nice of Iso to take the bait and he has since proven himself scum, but I was aware it might not work. Iso falling into a trap is not more convenient than Iso getting roleblocked after correctly predicting the N1 NK. Why do you trust that Iso predicted that scum would kill GJ, wanted to give up himself for GJ, but the scum figured out he was the bodyguard? That seems far more complicated than recognizing the potential for a bodyguard fake-claim.
We have two worlds here: scum!Iso and town!Iso. According to this votal, what is the scumteam doing in both of these worlds? I actually think the answer is really easy. I wish I had looked at the votecount sooner. >_>
If Iso is scum, everyone on his wagon is very likely town. Having one buddy on the wagon and waiting out the clock is ??? at MyLo. Kosa would have to be the second scum here, hesitant between hammering Iso for the towncred or waiting to see if he can swing the lynch. But given his sparse posting, he doesn't at all strike me as "my buddy needs to not die here, lemme strongarm the thread into lynching literally anyone else." And playing the waiting game is dangerous, because Iso will be lynched by default, and Kosa would get no towncred here.
So. I don't believe in this world. I'm not reeeally sure I see a scumteam that doesn't include one of AG/zomg. Only mildly worried about confbias'ing here. But like, if Iso is scum with one of AG/zomg, then uh. I don't know what you're doing, but it'll probably help you win, so gg.
If Iso is town, then so is Kosa, and both scum are voting for Iso, period. Any scumteam including Kosa should have won already. That would make the scumteam AG and zomg.
---
So.
Scum only need one mislynch here to win.
I think zomg is stalling and hoping the lynch on Iso gets shoved through.
I think zomg is scum and we should lynch him.
But I also think AG is his partner, and since he already has one vote, I'll move there.
Unvote
Vote AG
---
Anyone who disagrees: look at the votes and tell me if you see anything different. If Iso is scum, who is his partner? What are they doing and why?
Also, I want Ophidia replaced so they can move their vote.
Yeah, Kosa is either exactly scum with Iso, or just town. I believe he's town.
Iso being scum with someone on his wagon makes no sense with how the votes are currently spread out. The game has been quiet and mostly at a standstill, which suggests scum are nice and comfy where they're at.
zomg unvoted Iso, but for some reason is still suggesting that lynching Iso is the best play here.
nope.jpg
Scumteams I will probably lose to:
Iso/Kosa
Iso/[AG/zomg]
But I think killing AG and zomg ends in a town victory.
Iso + zomg is the most likely scum team, they are just both bussing. Iso + Kosa has been bugging me for a while and is still reasonable, but the interactions between Iso and zomg are just too awkward. zomg spent so much time focusing on Iso while Iso basically ignores him. It looks like new scum not really knowing what to do while Iso doesn't want too much interaction with his partner.
Iso is bussing because zomg was just too scummy and Iso couldn't put together a false case against town. His argument against me is purely based on "you are calling me scum".
zomg has been focusing on Iso all game. His posts during RVS seem to indicate he thinks Iso is scum while refusing to actually say it. It looks like he doesn't know how to play as scum and latched onto his partner.
It is possible zomg just has no idea what he's down as town and Kosa has put on a very good performance as scum, but that seems less likely.
I guess you have no comment on pages 3-5?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I was referring to your posts after you dropped the weird style. 93, 95, 98, 111, 141.
So you have me as scum purely on RVS; interesting.
Why would you not have claimed if you realized it was MyLo? What is the difference that 4 town vs 3 town remaining makes for your decision?
no
No. I have you as scum based on a myriad of other things, as well. Choosing to ignore them doesn't mean they're not there.
I wouldn't have claimed if I realized we potentially had another Day because there was no point in outing myself in the event that you hadn't figured out I was the Bodyguard. There was another Night where I could have done something useful by getting myself killed instead of Roleblocked.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Let's lynch zomg and lose already.
Votecount:
Iso: Ophidia (L-3)
Zomgarcwind: Vaimes (L-3)
AtheistGod: Iso (L-3)
Not Voting:
AtheistGod, Kosakosa, Zomgarcwind
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline is extended to 1 November.
-
Anyway, I'm down with the Arcwind wagon if AG has no traction. They're the only possible scum team from my perspective, so either lynch is a hit.
Unvote, Vote Arcwind
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Stop trying to convince me you're town and catch some scum. Seriously, it'll go a long way.
More importantly, AG and Arcwind need to also be coming up with arguments for why we should lynch one over the other - again, unless they're supposing that Vaimes/Kosa is the scumteam.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Vote: Iso
Iso: Ophidia, AtheistGod (L-2)
Zomgarcwind: Vaimes, Iso (L-2)
Not Voting:
Kosakosa, Zomgarcwind
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline is extended to 1 November.
you can't catch yourself.
Are you claiming scum again?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
AG's #121 is extremely self-conscious: he says it in a way as if he knew a Bodyguard claim would happen, when in fact, the odds for a bodyguard claim to happen were actually 50% from a town standpoint. But somehow he's sure it's coming.
Then, Iso claims. The thing is, AG only delivers his "I was baiting for the fakeclaim, Iso is scum" post after Vaimes states that fakeclaiming!Iso is a possibility and being questioned by him (Vaimes) over #121. AG's post #135 comes after Iso's claim and yet there's no mention of it. Ok, so you set a trap hoping to catch scum with it, you supposedly believe they fell for it, but instead of going "gotcha!" right away, you... talk about how you knew who the vig was? It doesn't add up.
Then AG justifies his "Iso is scum" stance with probability. Since the odds of Iso being gambitting scum, through sheer randomness, is 66% v. the 33% he's actually the Bodyguard (plus the "Iso factor", as he puts it), that means he's scum! One less guys woot!
Only it doesn't work like that. That's fear-mongering plain and simple.
And when I questioned him about that flawed logic, his answer is:
"So yeah, probability is all we have, life is tough bruh it sucks we're in MyLo huh"
...:weird:
There's no scumhunting other than his Iso quarrel. Barely any questionings outside of the WIFOM-y "why would I do that as scum instead of X". Again, it doesn't add up.
When the real paranoia kicks in, however, is that I'm seriously considering Iso as his buddy. It's what makes the most sense.
From the standpoint that AG had inside knowledge about the fact that there would be a Bodyguard claim toDay, there are only two options:
1) Iso indeed is the Bodyguard and the scumteam has a Roleblocker;
2) Iso is scum with AG and they both discussed the fakeclaim in the scumchat.
Vaimes said in his scumteam possibilities post that AG/Iso was unlikely because the way they're bickering doesn't seem like distancing and they could've both turned on him after his "fear-mongering" post. I wholeheartedly disagree exactly because you've antecipated it on that post:
It would be far too obvious if they jumped on you right after you said that. And from that moment on you started contributing with lots of content and scumhunting effort, so if they're the scumteam, jumping on you wouldn't be the easiest task. It's completely possible, and actually likely since AG ignored Iso's claim until you called him on it, that AG decided to bus Iso in order to not look bad since the fakeclaiming went awry. And with the way Iso behaved regarding Seppel's claim, I'd say this is by far the most likely scenario.
If they're scum, with the way they're bussing each other, whoever doesn't get lynched toDay gets a free card out of jail toMorrow exactly because of how you're accessing the situation. Ophidia is probably NK'ed for being the only 100% conftown around and we're stuck into a 4-man fistfight in which the one who probably looks the best is one of them by proxy.
I could be wrong about Iso and either Vaimes or zomg are nextleveling me, but regardless, AG is scum independently from Iso. I won't be moving this vote toDay.
Vote AG
I wasn't certain there would be a claim, but it was roughly 50% there was an actual bodyguard in the game, the chance of someone claiming bodyguard at all is higher.
Asking for the bodyguard claim wasn't a complete trap. I already said that I planned to mention the possibility but Iso's claim is scummy. I also wanted to get reactions to Iso's claim from other players since we do have a 2nd scum to find.
Why doesn't it work like that? Unless Iso is less than 50% to gambit, a claim from him is more likely to be a lie than not. It's not the only evidence, but it's a piece.
Look at Iso's reactions to the attack. He jumped to complaining about how he can't post that often and that my original questions would bias the town against them. He whined rather than explain why he isn't scum. He immediately went OMGUS without even using anything other than attacking him as a reason. Although it appears you are viewing Iso as scum anyways, so I guess I don't need to explain why his defense has been scummy.
Remember when you explained why nolynching doesn't work? Well, we can nolynch tomorrow. I've been looking over who the second scum is, but I'm not nearly as certain about zomg as I am about Iso and I planned on a day 3 nolynch removing 1 of the possibilities for the second scum.
Wanna lynch AG with me, today?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
4 of the 10 possible scum teams could already win by hammering. Vaimes + zomg, Vaimes + Kosa, zomg + Kosa, and Kosa + AG.
@Kosa, if you truly believe the scum team is Iso and me, why are you not willing to lynch Iso toDay?
Unless you and Arcwind are the scum team and already voting me!
Funny how you neglected to mention that, though.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
We have 4 town, we can lynch you without your partner's involvement.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
It's a sign of affection.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Iso: Ophidia, AtheistGod (L-2)
Zomgarcwind: Vaimes, Iso (L-2)
AtheistGod: Kosakosa (L-3)
Not Voting:
Zomgarcwind
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline is 1 November.
But no, going on record as not believing Arcwind is town, at this juncture.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Three people want to lynch Iso.
Three people want to lynch AG and/or Arcwind.
The way I see it, Ophidia is the Nightkill no matter what because I'm still Roleblockable mislynchbait and he's confirmed town.
If we don't agree to lynch toDay, the Day will (presumably) end in a No Lynch. (@DoT, please feel free to correct me on this if that's incorrect.)
That means we go into Day 3 with two people who want to lynch Iso, and three people who want to lynch AG and/or Arcwind. Which means that I'm not getting lynched on Day 3.
Ophidia, I'd greatly appreciate if you would vote for someone who actually has a chance of getting lynched toDay so that we don't have to go through this song and dance tomorrow without your voice (as wrong as it may be). You're literally wasting your vote by voting alongside the scum on the only wagon on town, here.
Vote Arcwind like the rest of the cool kids.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Votecount:
Iso: Ophidia, AtheistGod, Zomgarcwind (L-1)
Zomgarcwind: Vaimes, Iso (L-2)
AtheistGod: Kosakosa (L-3)
Not Voting:
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline is 1 November.
Time for you to change Ophidia's mind.
Or, as I like to call it, reality.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Why are you upset with me attempting to solve the game again? Btw did you _actually_ read all of it? Do you agree or disagree with it? I don't care about yours (and AG's) half-assed percentages. Show me behavior. Talk to me with words, not numbers.
Dude, what?
If what you're attempting to paint as truth was true, then:
A standard Mini has 12 people, 9 town 3 scum. Therefore, the chance of Player A being scum is 25%. So Player A is very unlikely to be scum. So Player A isn't scum.
Can't you really see what's wrong with it? What you're saying is that as the chance of a Bodyguard being or not in the game is 50% each, scum is more likely to gambit Bodyguard. As Iso is more likely to gambit than any other player, then he's gambitting scum and that's it. That was your whole initial argument to call Iso scum, and that argument is flawed at its core. You didn't even entertain the possibility of Iso telling the truth, as you flat-out stated: "Iso is scum." Based. Solely. On. Percentages.
And I'm repeating myself here, but you only did so after Vaimes pointed out the Bodyguard issue. So no, I don't believe you. I don't believe you didn't have inside knowledge about either the existence of a Bodyguard because Roleblocker or that Iso would falseclaim so because buddies. I just don't. It's WAY too convenient.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The initial argument also covered how the NK lined up with Iso's target and that Iso being roleblocked seemed way too convenient. I originally had a "probably" in that assertion but wanted the focus on the arguments rather than "probably"; I was aware of the holes but people get way too caught up in them when I explicitly point them out. 66% is a lot more than 25%, it's not going to condemn someone by itself, but it should direct attention. Since then, Iso has been playing like scum. I didn't post before Vaimes because I wanted posts from every player after Iso's claim before posting my argument. How is noticing how free a bodyguard falseclaim would be from the set up "WAY too convenient". It was nice of Iso to take the bait and he has since proven himself scum, but I was aware it might not work. Iso falling into a trap is not more convenient than Iso getting roleblocked after correctly predicting the N1 NK. Why do you trust that Iso predicted that scum would kill GJ, wanted to give up himself for GJ, but the scum figured out he was the bodyguard? That seems far more complicated than recognizing the potential for a bodyguard fake-claim.
Weak by itself, but that's kind of why I wanted everyone to focus on finding his partner if he is scum.
Because if we can lynch someone else who is mafia AND that person is the Roleblocker, then it clears Iso.
But we're kind of running out of time.
Iso: Ophidia, AtheistGod, Zomgarcwind (L-1)
Zomgarcwind: Vaimes, Iso (L-2)
AtheistGod: Kosakosa (L-3)
We have two worlds here: scum!Iso and town!Iso. According to this votal, what is the scumteam doing in both of these worlds? I actually think the answer is really easy. I wish I had looked at the votecount sooner. >_>
If Iso is scum, everyone on his wagon is very likely town. Having one buddy on the wagon and waiting out the clock is ??? at MyLo. Kosa would have to be the second scum here, hesitant between hammering Iso for the towncred or waiting to see if he can swing the lynch. But given his sparse posting, he doesn't at all strike me as "my buddy needs to not die here, lemme strongarm the thread into lynching literally anyone else." And playing the waiting game is dangerous, because Iso will be lynched by default, and Kosa would get no towncred here.
So. I don't believe in this world. I'm not reeeally sure I see a scumteam that doesn't include one of AG/zomg. Only mildly worried about confbias'ing here. But like, if Iso is scum with one of AG/zomg, then uh. I don't know what you're doing, but it'll probably help you win, so gg.
If Iso is town, then so is Kosa, and both scum are voting for Iso, period. Any scumteam including Kosa should have won already. That would make the scumteam AG and zomg.
---
So.
Scum only need one mislynch here to win.
I think zomg is stalling and hoping the lynch on Iso gets shoved through.
I think zomg is scum and we should lynch him.
But I also think AG is his partner, and since he already has one vote, I'll move there.
Unvote
Vote AG
---
Anyone who disagrees: look at the votes and tell me if you see anything different. If Iso is scum, who is his partner? What are they doing and why?
Also, I want Ophidia replaced so they can move their vote.
Iso being scum with someone on his wagon makes no sense with how the votes are currently spread out. The game has been quiet and mostly at a standstill, which suggests scum are nice and comfy where they're at.
zomg unvoted Iso, but for some reason is still suggesting that lynching Iso is the best play here.
nope.jpg
Scumteams I will probably lose to:
Iso/Kosa
Iso/[AG/zomg]
But I think killing AG and zomg ends in a town victory.
As nice as that would be, it won't happen. Iso is behaviorally scum. Don't be overly wishful when Iso has done nothing to earn town credit.
zomg has been focusing on Iso all game. His posts during RVS seem to indicate he thinks Iso is scum while refusing to actually say it. It looks like he doesn't know how to play as scum and latched onto his partner.
It is possible zomg just has no idea what he's down as town and Kosa has put on a very good performance as scum, but that seems less likely.
Iso just completely ignored him for a rather long period of time. He jumped on zomg after there was a bunch of suspicion already there.