That post really bugs me due to how much information scum can take from it while saying very little to town. The game isn't getting solved right now and the only useful information in that post is that Osie has me as his biggest scum read, D_V as the 2nd big scumread, and is townreading Mind and Shadow. It doesn't take a bunch of lists to say that.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
That post really bugs me due to how much information scum can take from it while saying very little to town. The game isn't getting solved right now and the only useful information in that post is that Osie has me as his biggest scum read, D_V as the 2nd big scumread, and is townreading Mind and Shadow. It doesn't take a bunch of lists to say that.
AG, DV's claim was antitown. Having some members of the scumteam fish for Merlin is +EV for them because they can't be lynched, AND they get the chance to win the game even after town "wins."
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
I guess there are two explanations, actually, that depend entirely on role PM format.
Since I, Merlin, know how my PM is formatted, I suspect D_V simply misread the OP as he claimed. My PM makes it quite clear there are five scum and one of them is hidden from me.
Uh, no, the OP makes it very clear that there are five scum.
AG, DV's claim was antitown. Having some members of the scumteam fish for Merlin is +EV for them because they can't be lynched, AND they get the chance to win the game even after town "wins."
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
I guess there are two explanations, actually, that depend entirely on role PM format.
Since I, Merlin, know how my PM is formatted, I suspect D_V simply misread the OP as he claimed. My PM makes it quite clear there are five scum and one of them is hidden from me.
Uh, no, the OP makes it very clear that there are five scum.
Not gonna get into how PMs are written.
No it totes does make it obvious. I just remembered it being 4. I did the math in my head quick 12 players 4 scum.
AG, DV's claim was antitown. Having some members of the scumteam fish for Merlin is +EV for them because they can't be lynched, AND they get the chance to win the game even after town "wins."
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
This makes Zero sense.
In what way am I fishing for Merlin?
Non-Merlin claims combined with the reads people have can give the scumteam an idea of who Merlin can be.
Finding Not Merlins is just as powerful and beneficial for them.
AG, DV's claim was antitown. Having some members of the scumteam fish for Merlin is +EV for them because they can't be lynched, AND they get the chance to win the game even after town "wins."
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
This makes Zero sense.
In what way am I fishing for Merlin?
Non-Merlin claims combined with the reads people have can give the scumteam an idea of who Merlin can be.
Finding Not Merlins is just as powerful and beneficial for them.
Huh.
I was thinking I was 1 for 1ing with scum if they wanted to counter claim me.
Either way Merlin knows who is scum by now out of the two percy.
AG, DV's claim was antitown. Having some members of the scumteam fish for Merlin is +EV for them because they can't be lynched, AND they get the chance to win the game even after town "wins."
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
Having Percival known does 2 main things: one which helps town's primary objective, one which hurts town's secondary objective. The first is that it's a town member who can be sent on every quest. The second is remove him from the pool of possible Merlins.
There is also the potential for Percival to slip up about his extra knowledge, but that can be managed by a good Percival.
Obviously too many people confirmed as non-Merlin town will hurt the town, but I feel the first one helps more than it hurts.
AG, DV's claim was antitown. Having some members of the scumteam fish for Merlin is +EV for them because they can't be lynched, AND they get the chance to win the game even after town "wins."
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
We can debate about whether D_V's claim helps town or scum more if you'd like, but the fact is that his claim doesn't come from scum unless. Or wait. You think he's trying to get counterclaimed on purpose, I guess? I hadn't thought of that, but.
Scum team doesn't know who Oberon is, so they have a pool of eight possible Merlins. Removing one by outing themselves isn't a great plan unless it's Mordred trying to confuse Merlin, and there's not a very good reason to do that this early - if Mordred is a town read, it works a lot better. Naked claiming this early to *possibly* out the real Percy isn't that great for them, imo. They should be trying to fail quests first, then find Merlin. Finding Merlin should be the more difficult wincon. Like, increasing their chances from 1/8 to 1/7 isn't that good and if they get CC'd it becomes way harder for them to fail Q4 and Q5.
I'm treating D_V as Percy unless there is a counterclaim. The rest is wine without one. So unless you're counterclaiming him, I'm going to keep him in my town list. The only scenario that makes sense otherwise is that he's Mordred trying to confuse me.
AG, DV's claim was antitown. Having some members of the scumteam fish for Merlin is +EV for them because they can't be lynched, AND they get the chance to win the game even after town "wins."
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
We can debate about whether D_V's claim helps town or scum more if you'd like, but the fact is that his claim doesn't come from scum unless. Or wait. You think he's trying to get counterclaimed on purpose, I guess? I hadn't thought of that, but.
Scum team doesn't know who Oberon is, so they have a pool of eight possible Merlins. Removing one by outing themselves isn't a great plan unless it's Mordred trying to confuse Merlin, and there's not a very good reason to do that this early - if Mordred is a town read, it works a lot better. Naked claiming this early to *possibly* out the real Percy isn't that great for them, imo. They should be trying to fail quests first, then find Merlin. Finding Merlin should be the more difficult wincon. Like, increasing their chances from 1/8 to 1/7 isn't that good and if they get CC'd it becomes way harder for them to fail Q4 and Q5.
I'm treating D_V as Percy unless there is a counterclaim. The rest is wine without one. So unless you're counterclaiming him, I'm going to keep him in my town list. The only scenario that makes sense otherwise is that he's Mordred trying to confuse me.
I think there are legitimate reasons for his play, for either alignment. However, we should stop discussing this, because I don't think it's helpful, and I'd rather somebody hard scum-read Percival for half the game, then divulge all the options.
@AG Whats your opinion on intentionally failing the first proposal? OR any proposal I guess.
@Vaimes Did you look up any strats for this game?
Intentionally failing the first proposal accomplishes nothing. It's not a problem if it fails, but that's because we can discuss the vote. Going in with the plan to just fail it removes that value.
Did anyone read my post about dv? It's so much more than just his claim. I'm vetoing any quest with him on it or anyone that is turning a blind eye to his scumminess and pretending that it's just about his claim. Maybe the intention of his claim alone could be debated, but when combined with everything else it's impossible for me to believe he is town.
Also I'm mostly VLA on weekends. This is a phone post
I think there are legitimate reasons for his play, for either alignment. However, we should stop discussing this, because I don't think it's helpful, and I'd rather somebody hard scum-read Percival for half the game, then divulge all the options.
Yeah. That's why I'm purposely not saying anything else. I think he's more likely to be town, so. People just really, really want to talk about it for some reason.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I was curious on shadow's suggestion of D_V/Vaimes/Himself (and I'd still like to hear why he wants those three). And I've been thinking on Rhand's comment about multiple scum on a single mission. Add in Iso's clarification that we'll get to see the counts.
One of the key problems for scum, is that they can't coordinate (I'm assuming scum can't chat right now). What is the opinion of making a quest with the scummiest candidates (I'm thinking Stinky/D_V/osieorb18, but we can discuss/wait for DK/Brinatoo to post). The idea is that scum know that (from their perspective) ONE fail vote will be awesome, but TWO fail votes is a disaster (we can 2 for 1 them by just not putting any of those three in a quest again).
Any thought on that strategy? The downside would be if they just pass it, but at least we'd get a passed quest out of it.
Heh that actually makes sense. If we can locate 2 scum on the first quest, then passing 4 and 5 should be pretty easy.
We need input on that from someone who actually played this game before tho.
Ehhh. I don't really think we should throw away Q1 on the chance that we pick two+ scum and that two or more of them throw fails. But I just realized I've been misreading the OP and if we fail Q1, Q2 requires two failures but only 4 people so we still just need 3 town. I was under the impression that Q4 and Q5 required 2 fails no matter what but the others only required 1 even if we failed Q1. I'll have to think about how that changes things.
I feel like it doesn't really affect that much? Failing Q1 means passing Q2 only requires three correct selections instead of four but it still puts the scum team up on us. I also think Oberon is going to be pretty helpful for us here because the scum team can't afford to throw passes once they need two fails in case Oberon is on the quest with them. Without Oberon they would know whether to make it pass unanimously to blend in or throw fails to get an actual failure. With him there's a chance they'll throw a fail and not get a failure, or Oberon will throw a fail when they try to pass. Heh.
Hey mindreaver, can explain the thoughts behind me being one of the scummiest players in the game (I dont recall you believing i was scum earlier) and then putting me on a quest with the actual scummiest player in the game that I'm adamantly yelling scum at?
Makes no sense. Do you believe dvs claim and think he's town and that I'm scum being opportunistic? That means you aren't actually putting the scummiest people on the quest like you say in your proposed plan. I'll go on a quest but not with dv. I don't think we should intentionally fail quests at this point especially if for some reason you think I'm scum because I know you won't get your desired result.
Also it's a big assumption assuming scum can't communicate. Every game I've played has had some sort of scum chat unless explicity srated otherwise.
Hey mindreaver, can explain the thoughts behind me being one of the scummiest players in the game (I dont recall you believing i was scum earlier) and then putting me on a quest with the actual scummiest player in the game that I'm adamantly yelling scum at?
Makes no sense. Do you believe dvs claim and think he's town and that I'm scum being opportunistic? That means you aren't actually putting the scummiest people on the quest like you say in your proposed plan. I'll go on a quest but not with dv. I don't think we should intentionally fail quests at this point especially if for some reason you think I'm scum because I know you won't get your desired result.
Also it's a big assumption assuming scum can't communicate. Every game I've played has had some sort of scum chat unless explicity srated otherwise.
I'll explain shortly. I really want Brinatoo and DK to come in and talk to me before I spill the beans.
But I might have been too overt already, and ruined my whole thing. We'll see.
My first thought was that trying to put two+ scum on a quest is risky and too likely to end up with exactly 1 scum and that even with 2+ scum they can still try to get just 1 fail. However, random chance puts 2+ scum at over twice as likely as 0. There is some merit to it.
However, a single 100% townie turns the math in favor of going for 0 scum. I'm town and would prefer going for 0 scum with me on the team. D_V is an option for a townie that more people can get behind.
Makes no sense. Do you believe dvs claim and think he's town and that I'm scum being opportunistic? That means you aren't actually putting the scummiest people on the quest like you say in your proposed plan. I'll go on a quest but not with dv. I don't think we should intentionally fail quests at this point especially if for some reason you think I'm scum because I know you won't get your desired result.
My first thought was that trying to put two+ scum on a quest is risky and too likely to end up with exactly 1 scum and that even with 2+ scum they can still try to get just 1 fail. However, random chance puts 2+ scum at over twice as likely as 0. There is some merit to it.
However, a single 100% townie turns the math in favor of going for 0 scum. I'm town and would prefer going for 0 scum with me on the team. D_V is an option for a townie that more people can get behind.
Makes no sense. Do you believe dvs claim and think he's town and that I'm scum being opportunistic? That means you aren't actually putting the scummiest people on the quest like you say in your proposed plan. I'll go on a quest but not with dv. I don't think we should intentionally fail quests at this point especially if for some reason you think I'm scum because I know you won't get your desired result.
What are you saying here?
didn't you read mindreaver's proposal? He wants to try to load quest 1 with all the Players he thinks are scum and hopes to fail it in order to eliminate them from future quests. This is after two huge assumptions, one that he is right about his reads and two that scum can't chat off thread.
Also, It's driving me mad how people are still saying they think dv is town
My first thought was that trying to put two+ scum on a quest is risky and too likely to end up with exactly 1 scum and that even with 2+ scum they can still try to get just 1 fail. However, random chance puts 2+ scum at over twice as likely as 0. There is some merit to it.
So the reason I bring it up is that I saw this in an offsite game (from like 2014) where the scum had pre-game chat, and decided among themselves who would vote fail IF there were more than one in the quest. Basically they drew lots, 1,2,3,4,5,etc. Lowest number always voted fail, any others voted pass.
Now, here, I have no idea if there was pre-game chat. Iso probably won't tell us. But it seems like, it'd be hard to actually handle a situation (as scum) where two people were in there. Because you have a 50/50 shot the other guy is going to say fail or not. If you can't talk (again an assumption, because I think day-chat would be evil, but it's not impossible), you can't know what the other guy will do.
We could also wait and do it with the 4-member team. Or not at all. I'm just trying to share the one place where the scum don't have perfect information.
I'd also be fine with you in a group AG, but I'm not sure I'd do you with D_V after that recommendation. It's not an accusation per se, I'm just thinking along these lines:
AG,D_V,Silver go into a room
If that came back with exactly one fail at this point, I'd be taking a hard damn look at D_V, because he'd be the prime suspect. But I might also take a long hard look at you, since you specifically suggested him. It kinda looks like you'd be shifting blame for a fail by suggesting somebody the thread has had as suspicious there. And maybe that information would be worth it. I'll have to give that some thought.
Of course if it passes, you're all heroes
If I don't see a post by 9 PM EST tonight from DK/Brinatoo, I'll reveal what I have to reveal, and make my proposal.
D_V should be on every single quest. We are wasting the Percival claim if we don't use him as a guaranteed pass. If that suggested team failed, I'd have to convince you guys that silver is confirmed scum.
After a brief read, I'm on DV's side. /barn his vaimes read.
If there's any specific posts anyone would like me to comment on, lemme know.
Some things I can make out: there's 3 critical things we all care about. The questing game and tells around that. The fishing game. The misdirection. That'll make up the majority of what I'm paying attention to to figure out scum.
That post really bugs me due to how much information scum can take from it while saying very little to town. The game isn't getting solved right now and the only useful information in that post is that Osie has me as his biggest scum read, D_V as the 2nd big scumread, and is townreading Mind and Shadow. It doesn't take a bunch of lists to say that.
Convenient for you two to say...
Scumspects for you or not, replying like this doesn't really push the game forward. Also, am I your top townread for any reason other than being Merlin?
@Mind: if you want to overload a quest with scum to try and get a 2 for 1, putting Vaimes and DV together will not accomplish that. I don't think either are scum, but they are definitely not scum together.
After a brief read, I'm on DV's side. /barn his vaimes read.
If there's any specific posts anyone would like me to comment on, lemme know.
Some things I can make out: there's 3 critical things we all care about. The questing game and tells around that. The fishing game. The misdirection. That'll make up the majority of what I'm paying attention to to figure out scum.
@Mind: if you want to overload a quest with scum to try and get a 2 for 1, putting Vaimes and DV together will not accomplish that. I don't think either are scum, but they are definitely not scum together.
My question was really do you see them as a dichotomy right now? And if so, what does a 1-vote fail get us if they are both in the group?
That post really bugs me due to how much information scum can take from it while saying very little to town. The game isn't getting solved right now and the only useful information in that post is that Osie has me as his biggest scum read, D_V as the 2nd big scumread, and is townreading Mind and Shadow. It doesn't take a bunch of lists to say that.
Convenient for you two to say...
Scumspects for you or not, replying like this doesn't really push the game forward. Also, am I your top townread for any reason other than being Merlin?
You're the only person who has posted a decent amount who hasn't given me any reason to believe that you're not town.
That post really bugs me due to how much information scum can take from it while saying very little to town. The game isn't getting solved right now and the only useful information in that post is that Osie has me as his biggest scum read, D_V as the 2nd big scumread, and is townreading Mind and Shadow. It doesn't take a bunch of lists to say that.
Convenient for you two to say...
Scumspects for you or not, replying like this doesn't really push the game forward. Also, am I your top townread for any reason other than being Merlin?
You're the only person who has posted a decent amount who hasn't given me any reason to believe that you're not town.
Read as I'm literally reading every player as scum except this one.
Early on, when Silver and I were talking about intentional passing, I realized that there were going to be two kinds of information you can get from the whole quest process:
1) You can get to see who is nominating who. This is of almost no use to town, since we don't know who is scum and who is town. There might be *some* patterns to look at MUCH later, but for the most part it's null. The only people who have near-perfect info, and therefoe craft superior teams, are the scumteam and Merlin. Therefore, looking at groups only, is going to be a Merlin-finding tool more than it will be anything.
2) You can analyze who is voting for who. This information is of no use to scum. They know their team, except for Oberon, and no reason to find him. Merlin will intentionally obfuscate his votes enough that pure votal analysis would be really difficult to tell him from uninformed town.
I've been asking for opinions on this, and found the following reactions thus far:
Silver - Post 74
Silver talks about Vote analysis.
Mindreaver - Post 88
I drop the hint that looking at groups is what we're really after.
Silver - post 108
This is the "reason" I'm townreading Silver. He came up with the vote analysis first, without mentioning group composition.
Stinky - Post 183
Stinky asking for Groups, which is why I'm scum-reading him. This information does nothing except help find Merlin.
AG - Post 217
AG looking at Votes and not Groups. Hence why I'm okay with him in a group, and was interested in his D_V read.
So that's that. I would have liked to get DK's reaction, but I think after I came out specifically asking AG, I might have been too obvious that all I really cared about was an answer to that question. I thought maybe I could get Brinatoo to bite with that "which nulls are you looking for?", but my self-imposed deadline is up, and I don't feel like waiting anymore anyway.
Now just the following, since I know you're probably lurking
@Silver - Should we include D_V here or not. I've been back and forth and back and forth, and I just can't see the optimal play. I am not certain on alignment, but I'm tempted to put him in there and see where that leaves us. I've really spent a lot of time thinking about it. Is he better in or out?
After a brief read, I'm on DV's side. /barn his vaimes read.
If there's any specific posts anyone would like me to comment on, lemme know.
Some things I can make out: there's 3 critical things we all care about. The questing game and tells around that. The fishing game. The misdirection. That'll make up the majority of what I'm paying attention to to figure out scum.
Which tells specifically?
If you're asking for specifics I haven't seen any personally. But I was more talking about a generality for what to look out for. Since the quests(aside from the party selection part)are the main focus- tells concerning who has a certain agenda. IE scum does 180s wrt their opinions on others. It would be the most parallel level of play we could analyze.
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Yes - though I obviously won't be revealing who voted for which choices.
-
Also, if you guys feel that players are in need of prodding, please request prods. It's up to you guys to police activity!
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Convenient for you two to say...
Maybe I'm being naive here. Could someone explain why?
DV's "Vaimes is a better player than that" doesn't really tell me why I'm wrong.
Uh, no, the OP makes it very clear that there are five scum.
Not gonna get into how PMs are written.
This makes Zero sense.
In what way am I fishing for Merlin?
No it totes does make it obvious. I just remembered it being 4. I did the math in my head quick 12 players 4 scum.
Made sense to me.
Finding Not Merlins is just as powerful and beneficial for them.
Huh.
I was thinking I was 1 for 1ing with scum if they wanted to counter claim me.
Either way Merlin knows who is scum by now out of the two percy.
Having Percival known does 2 main things: one which helps town's primary objective, one which hurts town's secondary objective. The first is that it's a town member who can be sent on every quest. The second is remove him from the pool of possible Merlins.
There is also the potential for Percival to slip up about his extra knowledge, but that can be managed by a good Percival.
Obviously too many people confirmed as non-Merlin town will hurt the town, but I feel the first one helps more than it hurts.
@Vaimes Did you look up any strats for this game?
Scum team doesn't know who Oberon is, so they have a pool of eight possible Merlins. Removing one by outing themselves isn't a great plan unless it's Mordred trying to confuse Merlin, and there's not a very good reason to do that this early - if Mordred is a town read, it works a lot better. Naked claiming this early to *possibly* out the real Percy isn't that great for them, imo. They should be trying to fail quests first, then find Merlin. Finding Merlin should be the more difficult wincon. Like, increasing their chances from 1/8 to 1/7 isn't that good and if they get CC'd it becomes way harder for them to fail Q4 and Q5.
I'm treating D_V as Percy unless there is a counterclaim. The rest is wine without one. So unless you're counterclaiming him, I'm going to keep him in my town list. The only scenario that makes sense otherwise is that he's Mordred trying to confuse me.
Intentionally failing the first proposal accomplishes nothing. It's not a problem if it fails, but that's because we can discuss the vote. Going in with the plan to just fail it removes that value.
Also I'm mostly VLA on weekends. This is a phone post
I've played several times and usually just wing it while trying to keep Merlin hidden.
I've never been scum in Avalon, just realized this now, heh.
So current opinion on me?
Cause like if I understood correctly you just viewed me as scum because of this?
I'm not really 100% sure at this point tbh.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Weirdo.
---
DV, I'm thinking on it.
I was curious on shadow's suggestion of D_V/Vaimes/Himself (and I'd still like to hear why he wants those three). And I've been thinking on Rhand's comment about multiple scum on a single mission. Add in Iso's clarification that we'll get to see the counts.
One of the key problems for scum, is that they can't coordinate (I'm assuming scum can't chat right now). What is the opinion of making a quest with the scummiest candidates (I'm thinking Stinky/D_V/osieorb18, but we can discuss/wait for DK/Brinatoo to post). The idea is that scum know that (from their perspective) ONE fail vote will be awesome, but TWO fail votes is a disaster (we can 2 for 1 them by just not putting any of those three in a quest again).
Any thought on that strategy? The downside would be if they just pass it, but at least we'd get a passed quest out of it.
We need input on that from someone who actually played this game before tho.
I feel like it doesn't really affect that much? Failing Q1 means passing Q2 only requires three correct selections instead of four but it still puts the scum team up on us. I also think Oberon is going to be pretty helpful for us here because the scum team can't afford to throw passes once they need two fails in case Oberon is on the quest with them. Without Oberon they would know whether to make it pass unanimously to blend in or throw fails to get an actual failure. With him there's a chance they'll throw a fail and not get a failure, or Oberon will throw a fail when they try to pass. Heh.
Makes no sense. Do you believe dvs claim and think he's town and that I'm scum being opportunistic? That means you aren't actually putting the scummiest people on the quest like you say in your proposed plan. I'll go on a quest but not with dv. I don't think we should intentionally fail quests at this point especially if for some reason you think I'm scum because I know you won't get your desired result.
Also it's a big assumption assuming scum can't communicate. Every game I've played has had some sort of scum chat unless explicity srated otherwise.
But I might have been too overt already, and ruined my whole thing. We'll see.
However, a single 100% townie turns the math in favor of going for 0 scum. I'm town and would prefer going for 0 scum with me on the team. D_V is an option for a townie that more people can get behind.
What are you saying here?
Also, It's driving me mad how people are still saying they think dv is town
Now, here, I have no idea if there was pre-game chat. Iso probably won't tell us. But it seems like, it'd be hard to actually handle a situation (as scum) where two people were in there. Because you have a 50/50 shot the other guy is going to say fail or not. If you can't talk (again an assumption, because I think day-chat would be evil, but it's not impossible), you can't know what the other guy will do.
We could also wait and do it with the 4-member team. Or not at all. I'm just trying to share the one place where the scum don't have perfect information.
I'd also be fine with you in a group AG, but I'm not sure I'd do you with D_V after that recommendation. It's not an accusation per se, I'm just thinking along these lines:
AG,D_V,Silver go into a room
If that came back with exactly one fail at this point, I'd be taking a hard damn look at D_V, because he'd be the prime suspect. But I might also take a long hard look at you, since you specifically suggested him. It kinda looks like you'd be shifting blame for a fail by suggesting somebody the thread has had as suspicious there. And maybe that information would be worth it. I'll have to give that some thought.
Of course if it passes, you're all heroes
If I don't see a post by 9 PM EST tonight from DK/Brinatoo, I'll reveal what I have to reveal, and make my proposal.
If there's any specific posts anyone would like me to comment on, lemme know.
Some things I can make out: there's 3 critical things we all care about. The questing game and tells around that. The fishing game. The misdirection. That'll make up the majority of what I'm paying attention to to figure out scum.
I'm just trying to understand your PoV here.
You're the only person who has posted a decent amount who hasn't given me any reason to believe that you're not town.
Read as I'm literally reading every player as scum except this one.
LUL
Early on, when Silver and I were talking about intentional passing, I realized that there were going to be two kinds of information you can get from the whole quest process:
1) You can get to see who is nominating who. This is of almost no use to town, since we don't know who is scum and who is town. There might be *some* patterns to look at MUCH later, but for the most part it's null. The only people who have near-perfect info, and therefoe craft superior teams, are the scumteam and Merlin. Therefore, looking at groups only, is going to be a Merlin-finding tool more than it will be anything.
2) You can analyze who is voting for who. This information is of no use to scum. They know their team, except for Oberon, and no reason to find him. Merlin will intentionally obfuscate his votes enough that pure votal analysis would be really difficult to tell him from uninformed town.
I've been asking for opinions on this, and found the following reactions thus far:
Silver - Post 74
Silver talks about Vote analysis.
Mindreaver - Post 88
I drop the hint that looking at groups is what we're really after.
Silver - post 108
This is the "reason" I'm townreading Silver. He came up with the vote analysis first, without mentioning group composition.
Stinky - Post 183
Stinky asking for Groups, which is why I'm scum-reading him. This information does nothing except help find Merlin.
AG - Post 217
AG looking at Votes and not Groups. Hence why I'm okay with him in a group, and was interested in his D_V read.
So that's that. I would have liked to get DK's reaction, but I think after I came out specifically asking AG, I might have been too obvious that all I really cared about was an answer to that question. I thought maybe I could get Brinatoo to bite with that "which nulls are you looking for?", but my self-imposed deadline is up, and I don't feel like waiting anymore anyway.
@Silver - Should we include D_V here or not. I've been back and forth and back and forth, and I just can't see the optimal play. I am not certain on alignment, but I'm tempted to put him in there and see where that leaves us. I've really spent a lot of time thinking about it. Is he better in or out?