From my perspective either RE or Proph have to be scum. I'll also be surprised if lng and RE are scum together.
I'm not scum.
I don't think RE is scum at the moment.
Why do you think shadow and LnG are town?
It's this one, @TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
I don't think I said I think they are town. I said, based on mechanics and balance I suspect that either RE or Proph need to be scum. I also don't think re is scum with lng. Where did I say I thought shadow and lng are town?
Ok, we are down to the following possible scenarios:
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
Shadow Neighborizer
Grape BP
Scum
RE Goon (Claimed)
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
Well, it's now confirmed that Rhand + GF can be a thing. I see why Grape did what he did (not giving away that it was a one shot). This puts RE + Lng, which seems unlikely at this point. LyLo is not the time for Turbo Bussing.
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
RE VT
Grape BP
Scum
Shadow Neighborizer
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
I just don't think balance allows no Goons. On top of that, AG said he confirmed with Cantrip that goons come back as Vanilla. It's too many PRs for scum and not enough for town. It just doesn't work this way. Too stacked in the PR department for scum. Not likely
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Shadow Neighborizer
RE Goon (Claimed)
QH Death Singer (???)
"This one passes the Shadow target test. VT ratio seems right (five + Lng's role that benefits scum too), but I'm coming back to the BP/DG problem here. We'll keep this one in the explore more pool."
-Again, problem solved as far as the Rhand/Grape thing and a likely combination,
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Shadow Neighborizer
RE VT
Grape BP
Scum
Proph Goon
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
"This fits all targeting, but the Proph/QH fight seems to lose this one some likely hood. It also puts proph on a scum team with his top two scum reads. I don't find this one likely, but can't entirely write it off."
-I wrote that last time, but something is telling me that I shouldn't write off the Proph QH bus/fight.
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Shadow Neighborizer
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Proph Goon
RE Goon (Claimed)
QH Death Singer (???)
This doesn't work. No way RE fake claims VT and actually has a scum PR. Town is too strong and scum is too weak in this scenarios.
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
RE VT
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Proph Goon
Shadow Neighborizer
QH Death Singer (???)
This doesn't pass the Shadow test. I don't think Shadow would ever target a scum buddy with a chat.
Lingerer: Talk to me about mechanics, because I'm having trouble seeing a scum team that doesn't include you. Depending on what Deathsinger actually was, and whether one of Terry/RE is not actually vanilla, I'm squinting to see you as town, but the easiest answer is the simple one.
Proph/RE: Also talk to me about mechanics, you think the scum team was 3 PRs, leaving town with only 3 themselves?
Terry: Why are RE/Lingerer unaligned? Because a double bus in LyLo really isn't all that uncommon, and can actually be a great scum play. (Remember misborn? That was mechanical, but same concept)
@Shadow, given that flips in this game don't provide info, not sure how much I can do to solve this mechanically. On a hunch, I would guess that Rhand's Deathguard somehow dealt with QH's Deathsinger, but it would just be a guess. If you are going to go off mechanics, I can't really defend against that. My ability is what it is. Personally, I wouldn't look at mechanics to solve the game because we have no idea what some of these mechanics are. They certainly aren't your generic PRs.
@Shadow, ok one thing I thought if. If AG is scum, why would he claim so early? Second, look at who aG and myself targeted... Vaimes, you, and GF. If I was scum, wouldnt it make more sense to not claim my role and target my scum buddies so they could PR hunt?
@Shadow, ok one thing I thought if. If AG is scum, why would he claim so early? Second, look at who aG and myself targeted... Vaimes, you, and GF. If I was scum, wouldnt it make more sense to not claim my role and target my scum buddies so they could PR hunt?
As claimed yes. I have a super secret tinfoil that you maybe rolecop whoever you give the shot to, but there are some holes in that theory, like me getting targeted twice in a row.
As far as when he claimed...there are plenty of reasons to claim a provable PR as either alignment, and it gets a bit too much into WIFOM to ask a question that can't be answered.
Oh wait, role cop. Nevermind. Yeah, I really can't defend against conspiracy theories. I understand the thought process with GF being shot last Night, but if people don't believe my ability is what it is there's not a whole lot I can do to counter that.
If you take my ability as granted, would you it was used in a townie or scummy way?
Trust me, I understand about catching up as a replacement. I'd like people to look over the posts I highlighted, because I am not an expert Mafia player by any means. I might be wrong about RE, it's a possibility. But if so, I want others to go on the record vouching for RE's towniness and explain to me why, and who else is viable. (Besides me, obviously.)
Ok, we are down to the following possible scenarios:
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
Shadow Neighborizer
Grape BP
Scum
RE Goon (Claimed)
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
Well, it's now confirmed that Rhand + GF can be a thing. I see why Grape did what he did (not giving away that it was a one shot). This puts RE + Lng, which seems unlikely at this point. LyLo is not the time for Turbo Bussing.
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
RE VT
Grape BP
Scum
Shadow Neighborizer
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
I just don't think balance allows no Goons. On top of that, AG said he confirmed with Cantrip that goons come back as Vanilla. It's too many PRs for scum and not enough for town. It just doesn't work this way. Too stacked in the PR department for scum. Not likely
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Shadow Neighborizer
RE Goon (Claimed)
QH Death Singer (???)
"This one passes the Shadow target test. VT ratio seems right (five + Lng's role that benefits scum too), but I'm coming back to the BP/DG problem here. We'll keep this one in the explore more pool."
-Again, problem solved as far as the Rhand/Grape thing and a likely combination,
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Shadow Neighborizer
RE VT
Grape BP
Scum
Proph Goon
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
"This fits all targeting, but the Proph/QH fight seems to lose this one some likely hood. It also puts proph on a scum team with his top two scum reads. I don't find this one likely, but can't entirely write it off."
-I wrote that last time, but something is telling me that I shouldn't write off the Proph QH bus/fight.
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Shadow Neighborizer
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Proph Goon
RE Goon (Claimed)
QH Death Singer (???)
This doesn't work. No way RE fake claims VT and actually has a scum PR. Town is too strong and scum is too weak in this scenarios.
Town
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
RE VT
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Proph Goon
Shadow Neighborizer
QH Death Singer (???)
This doesn't pass the Shadow test. I don't think Shadow would ever target a scum buddy with a chat.
Order of likelyhood (IMO):
#3
#4
#6
#5
#1
More on this later...
It either has to be #4 or #3. I'm rereading with that in mind.
For reference, it's either RE or you Terry. I don't see both of you being scum. I would agree that Shadow is the most likely buddy if RE is scum, as Proph asked RE a lot of the same questions that I was coming up with through my reread, which adds townie points to him. RE didn't ask Proph a lot of questions, but Proph asked a good number of her.
If it isn't RE... that leaves these combos (from my POV)
Terry/Proph/QH
Terry/Shadow/QH
Shadow/Proph/QH
Blah. I guess I can look at these groupings too while I wait for responses to my posts.
That's three people you gave the shot to, two who are confirmed town. I don't really know what to make of it.
Also, weird thing about Grapefruit I just realized. Does being 1-shot mean he chooses what night to use his ability, or is it a passive, only good for standing against 1 night kill?
NO. Really weird, totally far out theory: After scum failed to kill Grapefruit, they used the shot to check if he was a PR. So yeah, that would mean shadow is scum. And why Vaimes died, because there's nothing like an accurate PR check on a dead person. Idk.
How helpful would determining how/why Grapefruit died be?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
I think usually a 1-shot means that it's active until he's shot at, then it's used up.
Since we're all about tinfoil hat theories, here's another one. GF told Shadow he was a 1-shot, and Shadow told his scum buddies to kill GF! (No, I don't think this is the case, because I don't think GF is that dumb.)
I don't think we'll know until end of game why scum shot him a 2nd time, and I don't want to get into the WIFOM trying to figure it out.
I think usually a 1-shot means that it's active until he's shot at, then it's used up.
Since we're all about tinfoil hat theories, here's another one. GF told Shadow he was a 1-shot, and Shadow told his scum buddies to kill GF! (No, I don't think this is the case, because I don't think GF is that dumb.)
I don't think we'll know until end of game why scum shot him a 2nd time, and I don't want to get into the WIFOM trying to figure it out.
I mentioned that earlier. I was actually thinking he was shadows lover and that's why shadow wouldn't say. Anyways, I think we need to look at those two pairs. Can someone play devils advocate and tell me why lng would bus RE today?
So I have a couple of questions to LnG about his scumread on RE:
1) What do you think about her response to your first point (in that, Grapefruit wasn't in her top scumreads, so there was not really any need to re-evaluate there)?
2) I respect you using vote analysis, but let's take a look at the Shinichi wagon you quoted:
Sure, you could scumread RE1031 for it for being an unflipped scum on the wagon, but what do you think about shadowlancerx?
3) If RE is scum here, who do you think is her buddy? You've stated that you liked my questions towards her and you don't think JT/RE are a team, so you're thinking of a RE/shadow/QH team from your point of view?
---
Quote from shadowlancerx »
Lingerer not using his ability is also infuriating, because if our RE and Terry are both telling the truth (I know Proph is because I personally checked him), that means that either Lingerer is scum, or the team has 2 goons.
Do you think if LnGrrrR is scum he honestly admits that messed up and didn't send the ability in on time? I feel like scum LnG would be hyper focused on his ability there (of course subject to wine).
Where are you at right now shadow?
---
@RE1031 can I get a response here to this? I am still kind of confused as to how you use tone since you said that tone was easily fakeable, yet you are reading me based off of tone because you "have no choice"?
Quote from RE1031 »
I don't like reading by tone (I might have it secretly influence my reads, but I don't like it). But at this point, I don't think I have a choice.
Why don't you think you have a choice here? Can't you read me based off of.. my behavior or interactions instead of tone?
I don't think I said I think they are town. I said, based on mechanics and balance I suspect that either RE or Proph need to be scum. I also don't think re is scum with lng. Where did I say I thought shadow and lng are town?
You say that "from your perspective, RE or me have to be scum". If you think that RE and me are scum, then you have to think that shadow and LnG are town, right?
What do you mean by "mechanics and balance"? Can you analyze behavior over relying on mechanics?
Also, why do you think that RE/LnG are an unaligned pair, but you think that QH and I could be scum? It doesn't mesh since you say that
Quote from JT »
LyLo is not the time for Turbo Bussing.
Quote from shadow »
Proph/RE: Also talk to me about mechanics, you think the scum team was 3 PRs, leaving town with only 3 themselves?
It seems a little weird, which is why I am trying to re-evaluate Today. Though you know me - I believe that behavior trumps all. I've played in too many setups where the mod likes to screw up something mechanically.
Quote from JT »
Right this second? My gut is telling me the LnG's hard push on RE seems like a game winning mislynch attempt. I still need to think things out though.
You think that LnG's hard push on RE is a game winning mislynch attempt, but you stated before that you thought that me/RE are most likely scum? Can you explain your progression here?
I'll talk about who I think is scum once I finish my reread.
Right now I am kind of weirded out because I thought that if LnGrrrR was scum then he would vote me and heavily pressure me if he was scum since I think I was being set up for the game winning mislynch Yesterday but he comes in and townreads me and goes after RE instead? It's not what I was expecting.
Quote from JT »
I mentioned that earlier. I was actually thinking he was shadows lover and that's why shadow wouldn't say. Anyways, I think we need to look at those two pairs. Can someone play devils advocate and tell me why lng would bus RE today?
Squeeze play (last two scum bus each other, the final scum wins in final three).
Look at this game, Disney Villains Mafia. (Hi Cantrip!) It's final five. Taredas and Swishh were the last two scum. In the scumchat for that game, Taredas says:
Quote from Taredas »
You're probably wondering what the hell I'm doing. Well, it's a gambit - one of my favorites, and since I haven't played scum here (and not even on 'Scum for a while) it should wreak havoc on an unsuspecting town since we're unlikely to get called on it. I call it the squeeze play, and it involves bussing the **** out of one of my partners - preferably near LyLo, for WIFOM reasons and to give town less time to realize what's actually going on. It'll work even better this time since you were already bussing me - if/when one of us goes down tomorrow, the other will come out smelling like roses. (Hey, villains like roses too!)
For the record, I don't think that this is the case here, but you wanted a devil's advocate position so here you go.
@RE1031 can I get a response here to this? I am still kind of confused as to how you use tone since you said that tone was easily fakeable, yet you are reading me based off of tone because you "have no choice"?
Quote from RE1031 »
I don't like reading by tone (I might have it secretly influence my reads, but I don't like it). But at this point, I don't think I have a choice.
Why don't you think you have a choice here? Can't you read me based off of.. my behavior or interactions instead of tone?
Because I was lost as heck at the time, and have kind of returned to that state. If I were to analyze you based on behavior, what stands out to me is your push on Shinichi. It made sense, but it also came at a weird time where AG was the main topic.
Although right now, it kind of feels you're twisting other people's words.
I don't think I said I think they are town. I said, based on mechanics and balance I suspect that either RE or Proph need to be scum. I also don't think re is scum with lng. Where did I say I thought shadow and lng are town?
You say that "from your perspective, RE or me have to be scum". If you think that RE and me are scum, then you have to think that shadow and LnG are town, right?
Here for example. Terry thinks me or you have to be scum because mechanics deem it unlikely that there isn't a goon on the scum team. Why do you keep misreading it as both of us?
Also, why don't you think me and LnG are hard bussing each other right now? From your perspective, I obviously know that isn't the case, but to you, that should be a valid possibility.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
When the point of no return appears, it is already behind you.
I don't think I said I think they are town. I said, based on mechanics and balance I suspect that either RE or Proph need to be scum. I also don't think re is scum with lng. Where did I say I thought shadow and lng are town?
You say that "from your perspective, RE or me have to be scum". If you think that RE and me are scum, then you have to think that shadow and LnG are town, right?
What do you mean by "mechanics and balance"? Can you analyze behavior over relying on mechanics?
Also, why do you think that RE/LnG are an unaligned pair, but you think that QH and I could be scum? It doesn't mesh since you say that
Quote from JT »
LyLo is not the time for Turbo Bussing.
Quote from shadow »
Proph/RE: Also talk to me about mechanics, you think the scum team was 3 PRs, leaving town with only 3 themselves?
It seems a little weird, which is why I am trying to re-evaluate Today. Though you know me - I believe that behavior trumps all. I've played in too many setups where the mod likes to screw up something mechanically.
Quote from JT »
Right this second? My gut is telling me the LnG's hard push on RE seems like a game winning mislynch attempt. I still need to think things out though.
You think that LnG's hard push on RE is a game winning mislynch attempt, but you stated before that you thought that me/RE are most likely scum? Can you explain your progression here?
Why is this hard for you to understand? You keep making the jump from OR to AND. Are you deliberately mis-repping me or do you really not understand?
This is LyLo for scum too because if we Lynch scum today. The other one is screwed. If we Lynch town today, game over. This is end game stuff here. There is no bussing.
This is LyLo for scum too because if we Lynch scum today. The other one is screwed. If we Lynch town today, game over. This is end game stuff here. There is no bussing.
UNLESS THERE IS!
Like, I am currently leaning a Proph/Lingerer team, but I can't rule out an RE/Lingerer team. And that all just assumes you're town; which if you are, why are you trying to put the game on rails?!
Look, I'm just really worried that we lynch scum today and then run the serious risk of autopilot-ing into a loss.
This is LyLo for scum too because if we Lynch scum today. The other one is screwed. If we Lynch town today, game over. This is end game stuff here. There is no bussing.
UNLESS THERE IS!
Like, I am currently leaning a Proph/Lingerer team, but I can't rule out an RE/Lingerer team. And that all just assumes you're town; which if you are, why are you trying to put the game on rails?!
Look, I'm just really worried that we lynch scum today and then run the serious risk of autopilot-ing into a loss.
I'm just calling it as I see it. I'll dig into this a bit more today.
I'm actually leaning towards RE. I think it's our safest option. He is scum in two of the 3 scenarios (including the Lng Bus scenario). Let me go back and read QH & RE interactions.
@Shadow, started, but haven't finished. I forgot that one of my friends was moving back to the States today, so I spent time chilling with him. I will probably look it over toMorrow at work.
I still think Terry has sounded pretty towny. If he's scum, he's doing a stellar job. There's a few posts that reflect paranoia, but that could be a playstyle thing.
K. Can you comment on the RE posts after that? You can skim if you want, but at least tell me if I'm crazy or not. Try to look at the interaction between the players left too if you can.
3. Same, I've no idea who all these blokes are, I'm just hoping I didn't throw myself in some pro league of mafia veterans. Which I probably did. Obviously watching out for shadowlx because of his wolf pic. Also RE1031 because his pic looks on the contrary too innocent. Also Shinichi because he's pretty much the only one I'm comfortable with and my lifetime rival which I might eventually tunnel during the game for the heck of it. Eh, if you've got nothing to work with, create something to work with.
I kind of think Quickhoodies may have mentioned one of his buddies in here. We know that Shinichi is town, but one of RE/shadow (or possibly both) have a good chance of being QH's buddy.
Though doesn't QH know RE1031 from MAL, and therefore know that RE is female?
Here QH does a long list of comments to.. everyone except for kpaca and shadow, then he votes shadow. Want to see if anything really came out of this or it is just distancing.
I'm all caught up, and uhhh I don't really have anything to add, plus my previous post is mostly unanswered. Terry VS RE1031 looks town but 1: I've never seen RE1031 being this flustered, and 2: I think I get what Grape means when he's saying he feels like Terry could be scum.
Shadow hasn't added much so my scumread on him feels crappy but it hasn't changed and I don't see why it would have.
I don't think it was any clear, but I don't get why you would unvote and leave it as an unvote. You didn't immediately vote for the person who took my place in the number 12 spot. If I'm still possibly scum to you, then you're not going to get anything out of leaving a vote on me for a very short period of time. Why did you unvote if you still thought I was scum?
Wew. People who look into votes this way always make the red alarm beep for me. I'm not sure I even get what's being told here.
You have posted a lot, but upon reflection I was having a tough time remembering anything you've said; maybe it's me, but for someone to post a significant amount and not make an impression is strange to me.
Yeah, that's probably you. I wouldn't scumread someone for the reason that I can't remember what he has posted, this seems somewhat selfish, and I would actually reread their posts instead. Unless you mean something like "nothing he has posted really had any impact," in which case I can definitely follow your logic.
Hmm whats wrong with these reads? You barely know Re1031 to me her read makes sense, and so does Terry's read. Coming from people that seem to love meta how u going to compare the 2 votes when 1 player you barely know. This actually feels surpisngly Hypocritical.
One day, the word 'hypocritical' will have been used so many times under so many situations that people won't even know what it means anymore.
If you think no one should be focused on one player that much this early then why are you okay with Vaimes when he was so laser-focused on me? And still thought I was town?
Hint: it's because you're scum.
Wait.
Who do you think you were laser-focusing? Think about it for half a second.
Hint: it was Vaimes.
(oh. d'aww, RE stole the smugness from me with his #392)
@Quick: you say " Anyway, people have been calling on Shin for not explaining his read but not on AG."
Does that lead to any conclusions at all? It seems like a weird thought to just put out there and not do anything with.
No it doesn't. I just noticed that people were saying Shinichi had weak reads or something (?) but not saying anything about AG who just came in for the sake of it. AG got called on though, by now. That thought is like 10 days old, from when I initially started catching up, and I just inserted it in my post.
@Mind: scum love to get the town to hunt for an SK because it takes focus away from themselves. Which is why bringing up the possibility of a neutral before there is any proof of a neutral is often a show of scum mindset.
I have literally NEVER seen a town hunt for the SK, unless all the mafia are eliminated. In my opinion, it's impossible to entirely remove the focus from the mafia. We all know that the mafia is who we should be hunting right now, and it's what we've been doing anyway. Discussing the SK doesn't take away from that. I mean, how do you even go "this post isn't very scummy, but I can say that it looks quite SK-y!"
So based on that vote count I was gone for 5 days (maybe longer?) and nothing happened? Like I got some votes for I assume......lurking? And now people are also talking about an SK? lol what's really going on here?
@QH I hate ur post lol can't u back read in smaller posts like *****.
Yes creating false accusations is scummy but if you believe thats the only thing that could be gotten from the post then sure i am a hypocrit, but it's not like we 100% know that was the meaning of the post.
Man i hate that your pocketing me, you might even be scum because of it. I just gah i can't stand the fact that i'm being pocketed but cant get a good read on you at all.
I dislike when you take 30 consecutive posts to reply to everything so I guess we're even <3
Nah it just felt weird to me when you said "scum wouldn't ask questions to push the thread" then directly followed with "scum would try to create false accusations" because from how I see it, doing the latter implies doing the former.
It's not pocketing if I'm town. I know you're not used to being townread but I'm not voting you toDay. You can take a breather now.
This post does not look good for RE, and looks good for Terry and Proph.
Forgetting what you write in a forum that actually allows proper isoing seems odd but maybe that's just me, as scum u should be wary of what you write so the fact that you forget seems more town telling than scum.
I can't really say for sure why I am always scum read, I think vaimes already picked up on one of the reasons lol. It may be coupled with the fact that when i first started playing mafia, I was scum 4 times in a row so many people found it easy to read me. Why do you think people always scum read based on my posts in this game alone?
2 Biggest problems I have
1.Bad Memory so i tend to contradict myself.
2.I'm really bad at building cases and explaining my reads.
At first I actually liked Shinichi's reply here about his biggest problems, but as I was looking back, I came across the previous post, where he talks about it being odd for someone to forget what they wrote. And then he declares it to be a more townie thing than a scum thing, which reads to me as a subtle "I'm being townie guys!"
@Shinichi: if that is one of your biggest problems, why would you find it weird that someone else did the same thing?
[quote from="Rhand »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/777879-silence-of-the-lambs-d1-lambs-in-the-mist?comment=411"]@Mind: He used too many words and still didn't really convey what he meant, but I like where his pressure was.
Can you explain me why you're voting him / me?
That pretty much sums up why I'm voting him/you. Well minus the pressure part. Didn't care for that much either. That said I'll give you a chance to work and try this in the mean time.
Vote: Kpaca
FYI still not fully caught up. Will try to keep up but playing while traveling sucks.
Grapefruit, talk to me about your vote here, it seems out of place and just kind of thrown into the middle of your post. What was your thought process in this post?
I'm all caught up, and uhhh I don't really have anything to add, plus my previous post is mostly unanswered. Terry VS RE1031 looks town but 1: I've never seen RE1031 being this flustered, and 2: I think I get what Grape means when he's saying he feels like Terry could be scum.
Shadow hasn't added much so my scumread on him feels crappy but it hasn't changed and I don't see why it would have.
Two things for you. One, yeah, my activity hasn't been great, I've been disconnected, real life has made it hard to get into this game, and I'm working on it. Two, your scum read on me in the first place was hot garbage, like from your big post I'm not even entirely sure why you're scum reading me. You talk about my "pragmatic" questions that have already been talked about and I've gone over the reasoning, then you spend the rest of your spoilers post talking about everyone else and come back at the end to vote me. I was planning on just ignoring it, but I'm not sure anyone else even read your big post because no one else even questioned you on this, and it was really strange. If my activity level is what's giving you pause, fine, I'll be fixing that.
You have posted a lot, but upon reflection I was having a tough time remembering anything you've said; maybe it's me, but for someone to post a significant amount and not make an impression is strange to me.
Yeah, that's probably you. I wouldn't scumread someone for the reason that I can't remember what he has posted, this seems somewhat selfish, and I would actually reread their posts instead. Unless you mean something like "nothing he has posted really had any impact," in which case I can definitely follow your logic.
Definitely a case of low impact posting. Where did you get from there that I was scumreading RE1031 for this though?
I'm not interested in lynching Terry yet, mainly because I would say that Rhand is probably the safest lynch for today. Will never get over that unexplained flavor slip until I see a flip. If I don't see WG getting lynched today, then I'll probably switch to Rhand.
Not interested in lynching Terry "Yet"? Why do you want to go for a safe lynch, and what makes a Rhand lynch safe in your mind? Also, what is the flavor slip you're referring to?I want to lynch Shinichi/kpaca, and since kpaca already has a wagon: unvote, Vote kpaca I believe that's 5, you should claim.
Anyone else today seems like a bad idea, because I'm pretty sure those two are just scum.
@QH: The difference to me for kpaca and AG is the specific interactions and reads between kpaca and Shinichi feel incredibly scum v scum.Grapefruit, here is the contents of QH's spoilered post:
Okay, I'm done with page 6 and my eyelids feel heavier than osmium so I'll stop here. My reads are starting to take some shape, or so I'd like to believe anyway. I'll insert this one in a spoiler tag to not give you a massive headache each time you scroll around here, because this is one of the good ol' Quickhoodies posts where I type up my comments on various stuff..
Snipped the QH spoiler from this one. I'm undecided on this. This looks pretty good for Shadow honestly. Good interactions with the remaining players.
I'm all caught up, and uhhh I don't really have anything to add, plus my previous post is mostly unanswered. [b]Terry VS RE1031[/b[ looks town but 1: I've never seen RE1031 being this flustered, and 2: I think I get what Grape means when he's saying he feels like Terry could be scum.
Man is QH just telling the truth here and spewed RE/Terry as the last two villagers? I'm really not sure. My gut wants to say that he just saw two townies arguing but LnG/shadow doesn't feel right, since that would mean that all the scum would have power roles.
I don't think QH ever dismisses his two buddies as a town/town slapfight, though, unless he's really gutsy.
Quote from QH »
Wew. People who look into votes this way always make the red alarm beep for me. I'm not sure I even get what's being told here.
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
Shadow Neighborizer
Grape BP
Scum
RE Goon (Claimed)
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
Well, it's now confirmed that Rhand + GF can be a thing. I see why Grape did what he did (not giving away that it was a one shot). This puts RE + Lng, which seems unlikely at this point. LyLo is not the time for Turbo Bussing.
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
RE VT
Grape BP
Scum
Shadow Neighborizer
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
I just don't think balance allows no Goons. On top of that, AG said he confirmed with Cantrip that goons come back as Vanilla. It's too many PRs for scum and not enough for town. It just doesn't work this way. Too stacked in the PR department for scum. Not likely
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Proph VT
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Shadow Neighborizer
RE Goon (Claimed)
QH Death Singer (???)
"This one passes the Shadow target test. VT ratio seems right (five + Lng's role that benefits scum too), but I'm coming back to the BP/DG problem here. We'll keep this one in the explore more pool."
-Again, problem solved as far as the Rhand/Grape thing and a likely combination,
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Shadow Neighborizer
RE VT
Grape BP
Scum
Proph Goon
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
QH Death Singer (???)
"This fits all targeting, but the Proph/QH fight seems to lose this one some likely hood. It also puts proph on a scum team with his top two scum reads. I don't find this one likely, but can't entirely write it off."
-I wrote that last time, but something is telling me that I shouldn't write off the Proph QH bus/fight.
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
Shadow Neighborizer
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Proph Goon
RE Goon (Claimed)
QH Death Singer (???)
This doesn't work. No way RE fake claims VT and actually has a scum PR. Town is too strong and scum is too weak in this scenarios.
Rhand DG
WG VT
Vaimes VT
Shin Announcer
EL VT
SJT VT
RE VT
Grape BP
Lng Vanilla Cop Giver
Scum
Proph Goon
Shadow Neighborizer
QH Death Singer (???)
This doesn't pass the Shadow test. I don't think Shadow would ever target a scum buddy with a chat.
Order of likelyhood (IMO):
#3
#4
#6
#5
#1
More on this later...
Proph/RE: Also talk to me about mechanics, you think the scum team was 3 PRs, leaving town with only 3 themselves?
Terry: Why are RE/Lingerer unaligned? Because a double bus in LyLo really isn't all that uncommon, and can actually be a great scum play. (Remember misborn? That was mechanical, but same concept)
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
As far as when he claimed...there are plenty of reasons to claim a provable PR as either alignment, and it gets a bit too much into WIFOM to ask a question that can't be answered.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
If you take my ability as granted, would you it was used in a townie or scummy way?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Also, is anyone actually reading the comments I put up there? I tried to separate them so the walls weren't too big.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Anyways. I still have some thinking to do and I'm trying to get caught up in another game I accidentally signed up to replace in.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
If it isn't RE... that leaves these combos (from my POV)
Terry/Proph/QH
Terry/Shadow/QH
Shadow/Proph/QH
Blah. I guess I can look at these groupings too while I wait for responses to my posts.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
1. Vaimes checked Rhand
2. shadow checked Proph
3. shadow checked Vaimes
4. Grape checked QH
5. Nobody
That's three people you gave the shot to, two who are confirmed town. I don't really know what to make of it.
Also, weird thing about Grapefruit I just realized. Does being 1-shot mean he chooses what night to use his ability, or is it a passive, only good for standing against 1 night kill?
NO. Really weird, totally far out theory: After scum failed to kill Grapefruit, they used the shot to check if he was a PR. So yeah, that would mean shadow is scum. And why Vaimes died, because there's nothing like an accurate PR check on a dead person. Idk.
How helpful would determining how/why Grapefruit died be?
Since we're all about tinfoil hat theories, here's another one. GF told Shadow he was a 1-shot, and Shadow told his scum buddies to kill GF! (No, I don't think this is the case, because I don't think GF is that dumb.)
I don't think we'll know until end of game why scum shot him a 2nd time, and I don't want to get into the WIFOM trying to figure it out.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
1) What do you think about her response to your first point (in that, Grapefruit wasn't in her top scumreads, so there was not really any need to re-evaluate there)?
2) I respect you using vote analysis, but let's take a look at the Shinichi wagon you quoted:
Shinichi (6): shadowlancerx, RE1031, Vaimes, Grapefruit21, Prophylaxis, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
Sure, you could scumread RE1031 for it for being an unflipped scum on the wagon, but what do you think about shadowlancerx?
3) If RE is scum here, who do you think is her buddy? You've stated that you liked my questions towards her and you don't think JT/RE are a team, so you're thinking of a RE/shadow/QH team from your point of view?
---
Do you think if LnGrrrR is scum he honestly admits that messed up and didn't send the ability in on time? I feel like scum LnG would be hyper focused on his ability there (of course subject to wine).
Where are you at right now shadow?
---
@RE1031 can I get a response here to this? I am still kind of confused as to how you use tone since you said that tone was easily fakeable, yet you are reading me based off of tone because you "have no choice"?
Why don't you think you have a choice here? Can't you read me based off of.. my behavior or interactions instead of tone?
What do you mean by "mechanics and balance"? Can you analyze behavior over relying on mechanics?
Also, why do you think that RE/LnG are an unaligned pair, but you think that QH and I could be scum? It doesn't mesh since you say that
It seems a little weird, which is why I am trying to re-evaluate Today. Though you know me - I believe that behavior trumps all. I've played in too many setups where the mod likes to screw up something mechanically.
You think that LnG's hard push on RE is a game winning mislynch attempt, but you stated before that you thought that me/RE are most likely scum? Can you explain your progression here?
Right now I am kind of weirded out because I thought that if LnGrrrR was scum then he would vote me and heavily pressure me if he was scum since I think I was being set up for the game winning mislynch Yesterday but he comes in and townreads me and goes after RE instead? It's not what I was expecting.
Squeeze play (last two scum bus each other, the final scum wins in final three).
Look at this game, Disney Villains Mafia. (Hi Cantrip!) It's final five. Taredas and Swishh were the last two scum. In the scumchat for that game, Taredas says:
For the record, I don't think that this is the case here, but you wanted a devil's advocate position so here you go.
Although right now, it kind of feels you're twisting other people's words. Here for example. Terry thinks me or you have to be scum because mechanics deem it unlikely that there isn't a goon on the scum team. Why do you keep misreading it as both of us?
Also, why don't you think me and LnG are hard bussing each other right now? From your perspective, I obviously know that isn't the case, but to you, that should be a valid possibility.
THE SURVIVING SCUM TEAM IS EITHER:
Proph & LnG
OR
RE & Shadow.
I am very torn between the two.
Like, I am currently leaning a Proph/Lingerer team, but I can't rule out an RE/Lingerer team. And that all just assumes you're town; which if you are, why are you trying to put the game on rails?!
Look, I'm just really worried that we lynch scum today and then run the serious risk of autopilot-ing into a loss.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
What are your general thoughts on Terry?
I still think Terry has sounded pretty towny. If he's scum, he's doing a stellar job. There's a few posts that reflect paranoia, but that could be a playstyle thing.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I'll be here for the next 3 hours or so. If anyone wants to do a little back and forth while I reread this game, now's the time.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I'll let you know if I find something interesting.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Also, RE1031/JT, sorry for misinterpreting OR and AND. I was super sleepy when I went over those posts so my brain kind of interpreted it differently.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Though doesn't QH know RE1031 from MAL, and therefore know that RE is female?
And I'm not exactly tracking your thought process here.
Here QH does a long list of comments to.. everyone except for kpaca and shadow, then he votes shadow. Want to see if anything really came out of this or it is just distancing.
Mindreaver (town)
Mindreaver (town)
Wheat_Grinder (town)
Grapefruit (town)
Vaimes (town)
Shinichi (town)
Shinichi (town)
Shinichi (town)
RE1031
Wheat_Grinder (town)
Shinichi (town)
Vaimes (town)
Vaimes (town)
JoeTerry
RE1031
Vaimes (town)
Vaimes (town)
AtheistGod
Vaimes (town)
Wheat_Grinder (town)
Vaimes (town)
AtheistGod
Wheat_Grinder (town)
Vaimes (town)
Holy shoot he responds to a lot of people here lol.
Proph, what do you think of Post 425 from Terry?
This post does not look good for RE, and looks good for Terry and Proph.
Grapefruit, talk to me about your vote here, it seems out of place and just kind of thrown into the middle of your post. What was your thought process in this post? This post feels soooo bad. It's faking ignorance and then deflecting to a different point altogether. Looking back at it, this feels like deflecting here too. Two things for you. One, yeah, my activity hasn't been great, I've been disconnected, real life has made it hard to get into this game, and I'm working on it. Two, your scum read on me in the first place was hot garbage, like from your big post I'm not even entirely sure why you're scum reading me. You talk about my "pragmatic" questions that have already been talked about and I've gone over the reasoning, then you spend the rest of your spoilers post talking about everyone else and come back at the end to vote me. I was planning on just ignoring it, but I'm not sure anyone else even read your big post because no one else even questioned you on this, and it was really strange. If my activity level is what's giving you pause, fine, I'll be fixing that. Definitely a case of low impact posting. Where did you get from there that I was scumreading RE1031 for this though? Same as I said above, this is totally my fault, and I'm working to fix it. For what it's worth I'm sorry, I'm not usually one to coast. Not interested in lynching Terry "Yet"? Why do you want to go for a safe lynch, and what makes a Rhand lynch safe in your mind? Also, what is the flavor slip you're referring to?
I want to lynch Shinichi/kpaca, and since kpaca already has a wagon:
unvote, Vote kpaca I believe that's 5, you should claim.
Anyone else today seems like a bad idea, because I'm pretty sure those two are just scum.
@QH: The difference to me for kpaca and AG is the specific interactions and reads between kpaca and Shinichi feel incredibly scum v scum.
Grapefruit, here is the contents of QH's spoilered post:
Snipped the QH spoiler from this one. I'm undecided on this. This looks pretty good for Shadow honestly. Good interactions with the remaining players.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I don't think QH ever dismisses his two buddies as a town/town slapfight, though, unless he's really gutsy.
Is this a scum/scum interaction?