Running a second batch of the numbers now, with some additional details but my simulator finished the first run. I had to use 10,000 games though (they took longer to run than I remembered).
The basic deck was 12 fetch, 10 volcanic island, 38 lightning bolt. Cantrips replaced 4 bolts in the decks using them, which is what we're interested in.
I'm away from the computer with the exact numbers right now but it was about 10.1 turns to win with Serum Visions, 10.5 turns with Preordain, and 10.6 turns with Opt. This follows what you should logically expect. Serum Visions outperforms either, just as it always has in any test I've ever run while Preordain being strictly better than Opt outperforms Opt, though not by as much as I was expecting.
The results are pretty interesting in my opinion. It's enough to change my mind on Opt being playable. Serum Visions was still better in a race, so I would likely still want that in some decks like Shadow, but in anything where you can take advantage of the timing like UW Control Opt looks to be pretty nice. Of course, playing both is always an option too.
Second batch is done. I found an error in my first batch that was slowing down the decks. It shouldn't have affected the cantrip evaluation by much, but it did slow the clock down. Basically, my mulligan decisions were looking for recurring sources of damage, which obviously don't exist in this deck construction. So I corrected that, which speeds the games up.
Here's the speed of decks with the various cantrips, same deal 10,000 games.
Serum Visions - 6.46 turns
Preordain - 6.45 turns
Opt - 6.50 turns
It's one of the rare times where Preordain outperformed Serum Visions, but only by a very slight amount, it just goes to show that variance is still a thing even with such a large number of games. Anyways, it all goes to show that Opt will be really good.
Edit: One more set, -4 bolts +4 more cantrips. Don't focus on the fact that the list is slower (that's what happens when you remove action for cantrips), but rather the comparison between the three:
Serum Visions + Opt = 6.95 turns
Opt + Peek = 7.10 turns
Serum Visions + Peek = 6.97 turns
So Serum Visions+Opt is slightly stronger than what was currently available, but going right to 2x instant speed cantrips probably isn't where you want to be.
Trouble I see with Opt is that though the card is reasonable (instant and scry 1), cheap draw spells really come into their own when you are behind and are digging for an answer (hence why Preordain and Ponder are amazing!)
With Opt you will really struggle to dig for that answer, or find that missing land you need. Scry 1 is in my opinion better tied to either creatures or lands which do their own thing as well as help filter your next draw.
In that situation, Opt is precisely what you want. If you need an answer this turn, Opt lets you go 2 deep to find something, and potentially save mana by doing it before you untap. Serum Visions only goes 1 deep when you need an answer right away.
Trouble I see with Opt is that though the card is reasonable (instant and scry 1), cheap draw spells really come into their own when you are behind and are digging for an answer (hence why Preordain and Ponder are amazing!)
With Opt you will really struggle to dig for that answer, or find that missing land you need. Scry 1 is in my opinion better tied to either creatures or lands which do their own thing as well as help filter your next draw.
In that situation, Opt is precisely what you want. If you need an answer this turn, Opt lets you go 2 deep to find something, and potentially save mana by doing it before you untap. Serum Visions only goes 1 deep when you need an answer right away.
From my experience, Opt is better in general. The problem - against any blue deck playing x4 serum visions (or more cantripts) it doesn't provide enough CA to compete against other draw spells. As a result... I've started play testing both. removing a number of lands as well as other more expensive cantrips (remands, electrolyze, spreading seas, etc.) to make room for it.
The basic deck was 12 fetch, 10 volcanic island, 38 lightning bolt. Cantrips replaced 4 bolts in the decks using them, which is what we're interested in.
I'm away from the computer with the exact numbers right now but it was about 10.1 turns to win with Serum Visions, 10.5 turns with Preordain, and 10.6 turns with Opt. This follows what you should logically expect. Serum Visions outperforms either, just as it always has in any test I've ever run while Preordain being strictly better than Opt outperforms Opt, though not by as much as I was expecting.
The results are pretty interesting in my opinion. It's enough to change my mind on Opt being playable. Serum Visions was still better in a race, so I would likely still want that in some decks like Shadow, but in anything where you can take advantage of the timing like UW Control Opt looks to be pretty nice. Of course, playing both is always an option too.
Here's the speed of decks with the various cantrips, same deal 10,000 games.
Serum Visions - 6.46 turns
Preordain - 6.45 turns
Opt - 6.50 turns
It's one of the rare times where Preordain outperformed Serum Visions, but only by a very slight amount, it just goes to show that variance is still a thing even with such a large number of games. Anyways, it all goes to show that Opt will be really good.
Edit: One more set, -4 bolts +4 more cantrips. Don't focus on the fact that the list is slower (that's what happens when you remove action for cantrips), but rather the comparison between the three:
Serum Visions + Opt = 6.95 turns
Opt + Peek = 7.10 turns
Serum Visions + Peek = 6.97 turns
So Serum Visions+Opt is slightly stronger than what was currently available, but going right to 2x instant speed cantrips probably isn't where you want to be.
In that situation, Opt is precisely what you want. If you need an answer this turn, Opt lets you go 2 deep to find something, and potentially save mana by doing it before you untap. Serum Visions only goes 1 deep when you need an answer right away.
From my experience, Opt is better in general. The problem - against any blue deck playing x4 serum visions (or more cantripts) it doesn't provide enough CA to compete against other draw spells. As a result... I've started play testing both. removing a number of lands as well as other more expensive cantrips (remands, electrolyze, spreading seas, etc.) to make room for it.
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