I've done nice plays with it, in grindy games but... its not Doubling Season at all... Idyllic is way better... it can find Doubling season and other SB answers...
Hey guys, I did some math trying to figure out how to maximize our chances of comboing off on turn 4 or 5. This is a lot of words, so if you want to just skip down to the deck, that's fine, but hopefully this is useful to someone.
As much as I love hypergeometric distributions, it was much easier to use Frank Karsten's classic article on manabases as a reference. (Sidenote - if you play magic, and don't know that article, stop and go read it.)
In order to go off on T4, we need at least one mana accelerator on T1, a second mana accelerator by T2, one Doubling Season by T3, and one of the game-winning planeswalkers by T4. According to the math:
in order to have two dorks/accelerators on T2, with 90% probability, we would need 20 of them in our deck.
in order to have one Doubling Season by T3, with 90% probability, we would need 12 of them in our deck.
in order to have one 4-mana walker on T4, with 90% probability, we would need 11 of them in our deck.
Now - the most common dorks/accelerators are Arbor Elf, Utopia Sprawl, Birds of Paradise, and Sylvan Caryatid. One other possibility is Noble Hierarch, though it can't cast red. Another option at two mana (that doesn't die to bolt) is something like Farseek or Rampant Growth, which can get your 4th mana on T2. So, 20 dorks is possible. Eleven Planeswalkers is also possible, but 12 Doubling Seasons is not.
I think we all agree that we have to play 4 Oath of Nissas, because both the fixing and the filtering are mandatory. Even though they are awesome, they don't accelerate the mana. However, to reliably hit the third land on T3, we would need 22 lands, and Oath of Nissa allows us to run only 20.
If we're willing to delay the combo to T5, then there are a couple ways we can increase the number of "virtual copies" of Doubling Season (and both can get Oath or Sprawl if needed). The 100% method is Idyllic Tutor, and another possibility is Vessel of Nascency. I didn't like this card at first, because it only lets you look through 4 cards, not your whole deck. However, you have to consider that if you wait to crack it until T4, then there are 4 DS's left, and your deck is at most 49 cards, maybe even less if you've used a Oath of Nissa or a fetchland. With 49 cards left, you have a 30% probability of drawing a DS. The other benefit of this card is that it can draw pretty much any other card we need, be it a planeswalker, a land, or a creature, so it's a slightly better Oath of Nissa at that point.
At this point the core of the deck is already 60 cards:
20 Land
20 Dorks
11 Planeswalkers
4 Doubling Seasons
4 Oath of Nissas
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
In order to add some "virtual Doubling Seasons" we have to cut somewhere. First I reduced the dorks to 16, because I can find more with Oath and Vessel (and 20 seems extreme). Also, after Birds, Arbor Elf, Caryatid and Sprawl, I think the other dorks are weaker. In those 4 slots I put 1 Idylic Tutor and 3 Vessels. Then, since I now have 7 enchantments that can get a land, I cut one of those for the 12th planeswalker.
Planeswalkers: There are 4 that can likely win the game, or at least cheat in an Emrakul, when played after the Doubling Season: Jace, Nahiri, Tamiyo and Ral Zarek. They all have different abilities that also help you to stay in the game by dealing with creatures or helping draw/find cards. Narset Trancendent is also a game-winner, but her other abilities are not as good. I think 4 Jace is mandatory, and after that the mix is up to personal preference.
I goldfished the above 20 times. Here are the results:
8 (40%) Combo on turn 4
5 (25%) Combo on turn 5
6 (30%) Missing a piece, but still able to play a 4-mana walker on T3
1 (5%) Ramp like crazy, get Doubling Season but no walkers by T6
I did that experiment with no mulligans - some of those hands really weren't good enough to keep. Obviously that assumed no interaction, which isn't realistic. I'm going to play against real people tonight....
So Walking Ballista has been doing a lot of work in standard, in part due to its synergy with Nissa, Voice of Zendikar. For the variants of this deck that play her (as well as Gavony Township), do you think it could be good enough? Of course, there's the obvious interaction with Doubling Season, too.
Some things worked, some things didn't. First of all, there were not nearly enough white sources in the deck because there were 3 games I couldn't even cast a spell with 1 white in my hand, and that is with naming white on Utopia Sprawl pretty much every time. So I am going to take out the Westvale Abbey's and replace them with 2 Razorverge Thicket instead. Abbey is cute but never gets flipped, even when I am going nuts on Nissa's tokens. Secondly, the deck has no interaction, unless you count Nahiri... and that is a stretch. You just have to hope the other player isn't going to disrupt what you are doing because there really isn't anything you can do about it. Lastly, I feel like there was just too much ramp. There were a few turns where I had all the mana in the world but nothing to do with it. So I think I will go down the Sylvan Caryatid's? Not 100% sure on that but maybe I will start there and replace them with mainboard Path to Exile's for at least some interaction to try and stop my opponent's plan. Maybe that will help buy more time.
Here were my matches tonight: Round 1 - 0-2 vs WB Eldrazi Scourge - Couldn't draw anything relevant game 1. Got the ramp but couldn't use it for anything. Game 2 I was able to wish for Nahiri and ult her but even after he sacked 6 and went down to 3 life he beat me down with his Scourge's, casting them from exile after sacrificing them and blowing up a Relic. Just too many creatures for me to handle, even with Emmy on the board.
Round 2 - 0-2 vs UW Celestial Colonnade - Just a counterspell into beatdowns with Celestial Colonnade deck with a ton of card draw. I couldn't ever get anything resolved either game. I was able to wish for Vexing Shusher but he got removed pretty quick.
Round 3 - 2-1 vs WB Eldrazi Smasher - Seemed more of an aggro Eldrazi deck with Reality Smasher's. I was able to block his creatures up to getting Doubling Season down, followed by Nahiri ult. He went down to 5 life and next turn I was able to Wish for my SB Nahiri and cast her. He scooped at the sight of double Nahiri ult. Game two he scooped to Blood Moon, his mana base was really greedy. I didn't see any basics in that game.
Round 4 - 0-2 vs CoCo Elves - Never stood a chance. The deck was too fast. Turn 3 or 4 killed me both games through Leyline of Sanctity and Wishing for Firespout. Nothing I could do.
After playing tonight I can definitely say I like Glittering Wish and the sideboard. The good news is I was able to get Doubling Season down in quite a few games and Nissa's tokens can get scary good but the list definitely needs some changing. Let me know what you guys think but my first thoughts are this as an updated list:
I agree with you on Path to Exile not having good synergy with Blood Moon. Maybe I'll try some Lightning Bolt's or Dismember's instead like you say. I wasn't thinking too much about it last night after the matches and since my primary colors are green and white, Path was the first thing to come to mind for some removal. I am already running red so maybe Bolt should be the go to...
The idea with Idyllic Tutor was to be able to find my Moon's or Doubling Season if I didn't draw into them but in all the games I can't think of a single time I actually wanted to have Tutor in my hand, it was just a dead card most/all of the time. So cutting that isn't a difficult choice.
So that gives 6 slots open in the deck. Going up 3 walkers seems like a good idea. Then I am not sure if I just want to bring back the Sylvan Caryatid's or just add some Bolts. If we just stay dedicated to the deck's ramp and walker plan I can try out having the Wish board but ditch the Tutors and see how that goes. If I am not bringing in removal I can just go up some defensive walkers and try the list a little more like this:
Sorry daviusminimus, but i think you don't really understand wishboard. You play glittering wish because you have a lot of mana, and by that time you want to make some kind of lock, and Ruric Thar is the perfect card to make a lock against a storm or infect, while being simply good against decks like UW control. Wilt-leaf is mostly a silver bullet against Liliana of the Veil. Fiery Justice is nearly unplayable - suppose you have 5 mana and want to cast it using g.wish - it would be GGWWR vs. 2GWR. Triple non-green cost is very hard even in late game, and on turn 3 it is close to magic wonderland. On the top of that it is useless against boggles, and when you board it in (you do) it is very hard to cast it on turn 2. Vexing Shusher is bad, but Guttural Response is bad as well - if you show it from wish it is kind of useless, and if you board it in it is just a worse ricochet trap. I agree on 2nd wheel being useless - you don't have the luxury to play 2nd copy, and it is not even that good to begin with.
GGWWR isn't that hard in this deck going into the late game though, I disagree on that completely. There's 7 dorks in his list, plus 4 utopia, and the fetch/shock manabase in a 3-colour deck.
A clever opponent will always attack your manabase - ghost quarters, spreading seas, kill your dorks and utopias - the only type you can reliably get is green. And even if you can make it happen - you just don't have that many targets - it is not that good against eldrazi, and those who play tasigur usually can protect him.
I understand your argument for Guttural Response, but it doesn't become completely useless just because you've shown it. It'll either force them to tap out because their counter-spell is now rubbish, or they'll play a less efficient spell (they may play a mana leak instead of cryptic so that they can hold open a remand - you let the mana leak resolve and then try squeeze through a different spell later). So I definitely don't think it's pointless, and it has it's uses game 2/3. As an example, the old Jeskai Ascendancy / Wish decks used Guttural Response because its the easiest way to squeeze through a spell (consider guttural to squeeze through a spell over another 4-mana threat like nahiri - guttural makes it possible to overload the counter magic). If it worked there, there's no reason it can't work here.
I don't know much about Jeskai Ascendancy, but i know for sure that you are not winning counterspell war just because you have one counterspell. You still can only do this on turn four reliably, and that means if you are on the draw - they can double counterspell you anyway. And even if all goes according to the plan you still haven't won yet - you just played a good, efficient threat and tapped out. Next turn they can counter your spell and bounce nahiri, or d-sphere her, or, worst case for them, just collonade her in 3 hits.
The argument for Wilt-Leaf (that its good vs lili) is sorta fine, but you are showing the card, which was your argument against guttural response. I realise it "turns off" a mode on lili, but it's not exactly stunning when it does come into play.
It is stunning enough to kill Liliana =)
I think this is a scenario where just running 2-3 copies of Obstinate Baloth is better than having a wilt-leaf that isn't all that good. I'd rather have a sigarda in the board for that job, if jund is a tricky match-up. Sure it's a touch slower, but its much harder for them to deal with.
If only I could play 3 baloths.. I play one Baloth and one Liege, by the way. Sigarda is very slow - Jund is very good at denying you resources, and can can come in many forms - Death's shadow Jund, 8-rack, - which can handle your Sigarda just fine. An easy example - you start with dork, on their turn they play inquisition taking your utopia. You untap and have wish as your only turn 2 play. Do you play it? And if you do, do you Wish for Sigarda?
And sorry to push back again - but how quickly can you get 8 mana (or 6 + glittering wish) so that you can land ruric thar? It seems like a turn 4 play at the very best, which on the draw at least, won't be quick enough vs storm or infect. I love ruric thar, but I just think there's better ways to shut down those decks (you have wheel of S&M vs storm, though agree infect is a little trickier). When i've built wishboards in the past, I've only dedicated 5-6 slots for haymakers, 2-3 slots that help your own gameplan (like Nahiri / Nicol Bolas in this deck) and then the other 6-8 slots with actual good sideboard cards (like baloths etc). I think that's the best way to utilize the wish board, as you don't sacrifice too much power for the flexibility (e.g. which is back to my first point, fracturing gust is a playable card, vexing shusher isn't).
8 mana is turn three at best, for example: 1)t1 elf into t2 utopia+garruk 2)t1 elf into t2 overgrowth. 3)double elf+utopia. "Just" Garruk+another accelerator is turn four, double utopia+elf is turn four too. Wheel is not that good against storm, they can easily play around it. Ruric Thar, however, is just a good card by itself, i often board him in.
Hi daviusminimus, thanks for your responses! I take no offence in your counter-arguments(and hope you do the same), moreover, new ideas are always appreciated!
Ruric only cost 1 red mana, and we have lost of green so i don't see any problem here. If you mean that they destroy our ramp engines - that just means shields down on counterspells.
On Sigarda - I tried her, but after losing a cuple of games to Jund with Sigarda in hand i started to look for better cards. Wilt-leaf is always good when you "draw" it and is the only card you can reliably search on turn 2.
On guttural response - you actually have a point here, having a relevant wish target is better than just search for another walker, maybe in this list it is the only way to go. For my list blue control is an easy matchup, and i just don't want to waste a sideboard slot for a good matchup.
I'm not going to jump in on Glittering Wish, other than to say if that's what you want to do with your flex spots, that's fine! I agree with whoever compared it to Idyllic Tutor, because it is quite similar in that you take off most of a turn to get a piece you need. If I was doing that I would probably want to get Doubling Season, because I've tuned my deck to comboing with that card, and our only real weakness is the inability to reliably have the DS to play on Turn 3.
The way I see it we have a 56-card core, which can have 5 mana on T3 VERY consistently, and sometimes have 4 mana on T2. Additionally, if you don't have Doubling Season, you almost always has one of the powerful planeswalkers to play on T2 or T3. Here is that core:
Note: I tried maindeck hate cards like Worship and Blood Moon, then I tried using a bunch of token-creating PWs, but those don't always work and they cut our consistency of getting the combo.. That's why I am focused on "turbo"ing to the combo.
In the 4 flex slots, I have tried cards that shore up our weakness of finding a Doubling Season, namely:
Of these, the first two make us take a turn of of powering into the combo - so best case becomes T4 DS into T5 win. Commune worked OK, but only has about 30-35% chance of getting to the DS, and can't get a PW if that's what we need. I can't think of any other way to try to power into the combo. So, the question we are faced with is - What powerful thing can I do on T3 with 5 mana that will keep me alive? Maybe I'll go back to hate cards or powerful PWs like Gideon Jura, but I don't think those are broad enough, and I already have a sideboard full of them.
My new plan needs 5 slots, so I cut Ral (least consistent) and the 4 Communes and am adding 2x Platinum Emperion and 3x Madcap Experiment. I think it has promise, just waiting for the Emperions to come in the mail. What do y'all think? Double-Mad Planeswalkers?
This is a pet deck of mine and I've been recently experimenting with it.
I really dislike nissa, voice of zendikar and never really found her useful. I see most lists with her so if someone could convince me otherwise I would try her again, but I've never found much success with her. Instead, I'm playing courser of kruphix. The card blocks, generates card advantage, and gains life. I've also gone 5 colors and cut the blood moon for lingering souls. I still have the blood moon in the sideboard, but I feel lingering souls is much more versatile, and isn't dead/does nothing in like half of the matchups. You also have easy card drawing with spirits + tamiyo +1. This is the list I brought to last FNM, which I 4-0'd (I got very lucky, in bad matchups people mulling to 5/6 and missing land drops), but I think there's something here.
Any critique/suggestions would be awesome, as I'm constantly tweaking numbers around.
Those all sound like pretty good ideas, I'm going to try this out. I've personally still been running Nissa, and she's not amazing, but here's my (maybe rather tepid) defense of her:
If you get her out turn 2, she can really put the opponent on the back foot.
Slows down aggro decks. Courser might actually be better at this, though.
Ultimate is actually quite strong if your opponent can't deal with her.
Both her + and - abilities benefit from Doubling Season.
I'm running Walking Ballista in my build, so extra synergy there.
It's true that she sucks in some matchups and often isn't a great draw late game, but isn't that also true of Courser?
I do really like the mainboard Lingering Souls over Blood Moon. Extra synergy with Doubling Season, too. Is Sorin really that good, though? I wouldn't think he'd be the card that pushes you into black. Honestly, Oath of Liliana is probably the black card I'd most be interested in trying out here. Most of the black planeswalkers aren't very exciting. At the very least, I'd think Sorin, Solemn Visitor would be preferable.
I also see you've cut Gideon Jura and Chandra, Flamecaller. I'm actually a big fan of both of those. What made you cut them? Especially while leaving in Xenagos (who I like, but he's probably one of the weaker cards).
If I had 12 Planeswalker slots, and I wasn't using Nissa, here's what I would do:
Sorin was an experiment, I actually never got to cast him in the games I played last week so I left him in, but I can definitely see why he's underwhelming. My thinking was that his mini-emblem is nice with all the tokens this deck generates, and instantly ulting with doubling season is pretty sweet. I was running gideon jura in that slot before. I might have to try chandra, flamecaller again, I just always felt like I preferred elspeth whenever I drew chandra. I feel like chandra is a little too weak defensively and I feel like that's this deck's biggest weakness (closes games fast though, and I can see the value in that, might just be playing too defensively). Elspeth's minus and plus are both super good at stabilizing and letting your walkers take over the game. Karn is mostly there for fun, but also to deal with permanents I otherwise wouldn't be able to take care of. Thinking more about my games last week, I think I could cut Xenagos. The reasoning was that his +1 would generate loads of mana with all the tokens this deck creates with lingering souls and other walkers, but it's not like we're trying to hit 10 mana or anything so the extra ramp might be unnecessary. That's partly why I had a fatty planeswalker like karn to ramp towards, but he's probably not needed either.
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar seems better in most situations compared to Sorin, Lord of Innistrad. He makes tokens and has a pumping emblem, although it's true that he's less impressive off of Doubling Season. I was thinking Sorin, Solemn Visitor might be worth trying since his +1 can really put the brakes on burn (as long as you have creatures out).
Chandra, Torch of Defiance actually has really nice synergy with Courser of Kruphix, since you always know whether you'd be able to cast (or whether you want to get rid of) the top card of your deck. Maybe it would be worth trying to play a second copy of her if you're running Courser.
I'm a big fan of Elspeth, but if I had to choose between her and Old Gideon I think I'd take Old Gideon. Gideon deals with evasion, and can soak up unlimited damage (though that's a trick he can only do once).
I'm a little leery to cut too many of the token-making planeswalkers, though, since they have extra synergy with Doubling Season.
As for your fatty planeswalker, have you tried Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker? Nicol Bolas actually might be the best one, although he's pretty tough to cast without Oath of Nissa.
Ajani Vengeant was a 2-of in the list Dennis posted, but no one seems to talk about him too much. He seems like he's probably worse than Chandra, Torch of Defiance unless you're playing against a fast deck where the lifegain is relevant. And if you're running Courser, you might not need more lifegain.
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage and Nissa, Worldwaker don't seem quite good enough to me, though Tamiyo might be worth trying. Perhaps her biggest issue is she conflicts with her future incarnation, which seems much better. Nissa, Worldwaker's second ability can basically untap all of our lands, but her ultimate doesn't do too much and her first ability doesn't seem particularly relevant. Nissa, Vital Force, on the other hand, seems like it might be worth a shot.
I've been loving this deck so far. Kiora has been overperforming for me in some matchups that come down to a race. I think it's important to run at least one copy of her to find with jace, in case you get into a situation where emrakul won't end the game. e.g., I played a game vs titan breach // scapeshift, and he had 2 primetimes + 12 or so lands in play. I had doubling season on board, and could either cast kiora or nahiri from my hand. Nahiri would let emrakul get in for 15, but he would just sac 6 lands and have lethal next turn, so I used kiora instead to wipe out his primetimes and swing with the 6 8/8s next turns.
Having at least 1 bant tamiyo is super important for the case where you can jace ulti, but emrakul is in hand.
I'm still trying to figure out the best sideboard options for the deck though. Nicol bolas can be a good option vs an ensnaring bridge deck. Possibly rest in peace // stony silence as well.
I played this deck in a side event at GP Richmond, and my build is actually pretty similar to the one in the link above. I don't find it unfocused at all, it's designed to attack from many angles at once. (Still not sure why anyone is running Nykthos, let alone 2 of them. I think it's been relevant like once for me, ever.) Also, I've found Noble Hierarch to really perform in this deck.
I get Nahiri up to 8 counters and he has no creatures, but he combos off turn 4 and kills me game 1. I side in 3 Stony Silence and 3 Rest in Peace. Game 2 I get a turn 4 Doubling Season and turn 5 Nahiri. I kill his whole board but he doesn't concede because all I have left is a Birds and a Caryatid. Next turn I drop Nissa and make 2 plants; following turn I play a second Doubling Season, dump 4 counters on everything and swing for lethal.
Game 3 is fairly drawn out, I eventually get Emrakul out with Nahiri (no Doubling Season) but it looks like he might still be able to combo off next turn, despite being at 3 life and 2 lands. He can't, so next turn I'm able to tap down his blockers with Tamiyo, and swing out to finish him off. I never draw any of my boarded cards, but things worked out anyway.
Round 2: Affinity (loss)
I have a really good start game 1, but he gets Cranial Plating on an Etched Champion, so he can destroy my planeswalkers at will. I die pretty quickly after that. Game 2 I side in Stony Silence, which I get out fairly early, and really shuts him down. I stall him a while with Tamiyo since I can't find a win condition, but eventually get Doubling Season and a Jace. I cast Emrakul, take an extra turn, destroy his board, then play and ultimate Chandra, Torch of Defiance to finish him off.
Game 3 is very close, he gets me to 8 and has 2 Vault Skirges + Signal Pest. I play Doubling Season and pass, with both Tamiyo and Emrakul in hand. He gets me down to 3, and has the Galvanic Blast. I kind of suspected he had it, so maybe I should have played Tamiyo to lock down his Skirges or something, but I wasn't sure I had a clear shot at victory if I couldn't ult her.
Round 3: Jund (win)
Game 1 I mulligan because my only land is a Sunpetal Grove, despite having tons of mana dorks. Really need to replace those lands with something else, maybe fast lands. I take a sub-par 6 card hand and he takes my only 1 drop with Inquisition before my first turn. I'm pretty much dead in the water with nothing to cast before turn 4.
Game 2 I get the ridiculous play of turn 1 Hierarch, turn 2 Nissa, turn 3 Tamiyo, +1 her on the plant token, swing for 1 with exalted, draw a card, make another plant. He Maelstrom Pulses Tamiyo on his turn, but I have more planeswalkers and he kind of runs out of gas. Game 3 he gets kind of mana flooded, but I land something like a turn 4 Elspeth, Sun's Champion so I was feeling pretty good about my chances anyway.
Round 4: Grixis Control (loss, but we split)
Game 1 I get Nahiri up to 8 counters, but he bounces her. I play Doubling Season and replay Nahiri, ultimate her and kill him. Game 2 starts out with him Electrolyzing 2 Birds at once. Gross. He then draws something like 3 Fulminator Mages and has a Terminate for every mana dork I find after that. It was pretty silly, especially since this deck is like over 50% mana. I finally get up to 4 mana, but by then he has a Tasigur and an Angler.
Game 3 he's struggling for mana in the early game, but has a bunch of cheap counterspells. I eventually land a Chandra, Torch of Defiance and keep using her first ability, but despite basically drawing 2 cards a turn, I can't find too much. At least he's taking a lot of damage off her. Eventually she reveals an Elspeth, Sun's Champion, so I play her, but he Cryptics to counter her and tap down my board, allowing him to swing out and kill Chandra next turn. Ouch. She was at 7 loyalty, too. He then basically counters every spell I play after that (2 more cryptics and flashes one back with Snapcaster).
Overall the deck felt really solid, the matches I lost I still won one game. (My sideboard was missing a few cards too.) I feel like this deck could benefit from some counterspell resistance. I saw some decks playing 1 Alchemist's Refuge, which I might try now.
Changes: I'd be willing to go down 1 Nahiri, 1 Jace, and 1 Tamiyo for some different planeswalkers and maybe a 3rd Doubling Season. I'd like to try out Ajani Vengeant, and a second Gideon Jura might be good. Also, I see that one decklist is playing 1 Kiora, the Crashing Wave. I really like that card, but I wouldn't think it would be that good here. Gideon of The Trials might be worth testing, since it kind of hoses weird combo decks like Ad Nauseam.
Chandra, Torch of Defiance is a really solid card in this deck, I highly recommend at least 1. Its ultimate is game-winning, it ults immediately (and survives) with Doubling Season, it's card draw, it's removal, and it can just slowly ping someone to death. Not sure I'd run 2, especially with Flamecaller (which I think is the only planeswalker that never came up during my games, but I've found to be very good in testing).
Also, someone was suggesting Courser of Kruphix over Nissa, which I thought was interesting and I've done some testing with. I went with Nissa here, and I was actually fairly pleased with her every time she came up.
Overall looks pretty good to me. Please let us know how you do! I'm actually taking a very similar build to the SCG Balitmore open this weekend.
My suggestions:
I really think 3 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar is worth it (unless you're playing another 1-of Nissa incarnation). Turn 2 Nissa can be backbreaking against many decks, and I've very rarely found it to be a dead draw.
While Ral Zarek is hilarious, I cut him from my deck. (It was hard, I even have a foil one!) I just don't think he does enough without Doubling Season, and even with Doubling Season, he only auto-wins you the game like 70% of the time.
Also, while Ajani, Mentor of Heroes can give you massive card advantage, he doesn't impact the board at all. How has he worked for you? I've always been interested in testing him out, but I never have. He does instantly ultimate off Doubling Season, but like Ral, I imagine that doesn't always seal the game.
What do you think about Xenagos, the Reveler? He actually works pretty well for me, especially since you can drop Doubling Season after he's in play for extra value. I'd definitely recommend at least 1. I've even hard-cast Emrakul with his +1 a few times. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar fills a similar role.
Finally, what are your thoughts on Nykthos? I still don't really see the value of it. I'd personally cut it for another Gavony Township.
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As much as I love hypergeometric distributions, it was much easier to use Frank Karsten's classic article on manabases as a reference. (Sidenote - if you play magic, and don't know that article, stop and go read it.)
In order to go off on T4, we need at least one mana accelerator on T1, a second mana accelerator by T2, one Doubling Season by T3, and one of the game-winning planeswalkers by T4. According to the math:
Now - the most common dorks/accelerators are Arbor Elf, Utopia Sprawl, Birds of Paradise, and Sylvan Caryatid. One other possibility is Noble Hierarch, though it can't cast red. Another option at two mana (that doesn't die to bolt) is something like Farseek or Rampant Growth, which can get your 4th mana on T2. So, 20 dorks is possible. Eleven Planeswalkers is also possible, but 12 Doubling Seasons is not.
I think we all agree that we have to play 4 Oath of Nissas, because both the fixing and the filtering are mandatory. Even though they are awesome, they don't accelerate the mana. However, to reliably hit the third land on T3, we would need 22 lands, and Oath of Nissa allows us to run only 20.
If we're willing to delay the combo to T5, then there are a couple ways we can increase the number of "virtual copies" of Doubling Season (and both can get Oath or Sprawl if needed). The 100% method is Idyllic Tutor, and another possibility is Vessel of Nascency. I didn't like this card at first, because it only lets you look through 4 cards, not your whole deck. However, you have to consider that if you wait to crack it until T4, then there are 4 DS's left, and your deck is at most 49 cards, maybe even less if you've used a Oath of Nissa or a fetchland. With 49 cards left, you have a 30% probability of drawing a DS. The other benefit of this card is that it can draw pretty much any other card we need, be it a planeswalker, a land, or a creature, so it's a slightly better Oath of Nissa at that point.
At this point the core of the deck is already 60 cards:
20 Land
20 Dorks
11 Planeswalkers
4 Doubling Seasons
4 Oath of Nissas
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
In order to add some "virtual Doubling Seasons" we have to cut somewhere. First I reduced the dorks to 16, because I can find more with Oath and Vessel (and 20 seems extreme). Also, after Birds, Arbor Elf, Caryatid and Sprawl, I think the other dorks are weaker. In those 4 slots I put 1 Idylic Tutor and 3 Vessels. Then, since I now have 7 enchantments that can get a land, I cut one of those for the 12th planeswalker.
Planeswalkers: There are 4 that can likely win the game, or at least cheat in an Emrakul, when played after the Doubling Season: Jace, Nahiri, Tamiyo and Ral Zarek. They all have different abilities that also help you to stay in the game by dealing with creatures or helping draw/find cards. Narset Trancendent is also a game-winner, but her other abilities are not as good. I think 4 Jace is mandatory, and after that the mix is up to personal preference.
So here's my list:
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Arbor Elf
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Utopia Sprawl
12 Enablers
4 Oath of Nissa
4 Doubling Season
3 Vessel of Nascency
1 Idyllic Tutor
4 Jace, Architect of Thought
4 Nahiri, the Harbinger
3 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
1 Ral Zarek
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
19 Lands
4 Green Fetchlands
4 Forest
2 Breeding Pool
2 Temple Garden
2 Stomping Ground
1 Horizon Canopy
3 Blood Moon
3 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Worship
2 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Negate
1 Bribery
About the Sideboard: 12 of these are enchantments that can be tutored with Idyllic Tutor. If I'm playing against a deck with a good target, then Bribery is an amazing card to play on turn 3. My favorite targets are Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, Primeval Titan, Platinum Empyrion and Baneslayer Angel.
8 (40%) Combo on turn 4
5 (25%) Combo on turn 5
6 (30%) Missing a piece, but still able to play a 4-mana walker on T3
1 (5%) Ramp like crazy, get Doubling Season but no walkers by T6
I did that experiment with no mulligans - some of those hands really weren't good enough to keep. Obviously that assumed no interaction, which isn't realistic. I'm going to play against real people tonight....
4 Arbor Elf
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Sylvan Caryatid
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Planeswalkers - 9
4 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
3 Nahiri, the Harbinger
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
Spells - 6
4 Glittering Wish
2 Idyllic Tutor
4 Oath of Nissa
4 Utopia Sprawl
2 Blood Moon
3 Doubling Season
Lands - 20
4 Forest
2 Gavony Township
2 Westvale Abbey
3 Stomping Ground
3 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Heroes' Reunion
1 Rest in Peace
1 Vexing Shusher
2 Firespout
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Nahiri, the Harbinger
1 Wilt-Leaf Liege
1 Fracturing Gust
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
Some things worked, some things didn't. First of all, there were not nearly enough white sources in the deck because there were 3 games I couldn't even cast a spell with 1 white in my hand, and that is with naming white on Utopia Sprawl pretty much every time. So I am going to take out the Westvale Abbey's and replace them with 2 Razorverge Thicket instead. Abbey is cute but never gets flipped, even when I am going nuts on Nissa's tokens. Secondly, the deck has no interaction, unless you count Nahiri... and that is a stretch. You just have to hope the other player isn't going to disrupt what you are doing because there really isn't anything you can do about it. Lastly, I feel like there was just too much ramp. There were a few turns where I had all the mana in the world but nothing to do with it. So I think I will go down the Sylvan Caryatid's? Not 100% sure on that but maybe I will start there and replace them with mainboard Path to Exile's for at least some interaction to try and stop my opponent's plan. Maybe that will help buy more time.
Here were my matches tonight:
Round 1 - 0-2 vs WB Eldrazi Scourge - Couldn't draw anything relevant game 1. Got the ramp but couldn't use it for anything. Game 2 I was able to wish for Nahiri and ult her but even after he sacked 6 and went down to 3 life he beat me down with his Scourge's, casting them from exile after sacrificing them and blowing up a Relic. Just too many creatures for me to handle, even with Emmy on the board.
Round 2 - 0-2 vs UW Celestial Colonnade - Just a counterspell into beatdowns with Celestial Colonnade deck with a ton of card draw. I couldn't ever get anything resolved either game. I was able to wish for Vexing Shusher but he got removed pretty quick.
Round 3 - 2-1 vs WB Eldrazi Smasher - Seemed more of an aggro Eldrazi deck with Reality Smasher's. I was able to block his creatures up to getting Doubling Season down, followed by Nahiri ult. He went down to 5 life and next turn I was able to Wish for my SB Nahiri and cast her. He scooped at the sight of double Nahiri ult. Game two he scooped to Blood Moon, his mana base was really greedy. I didn't see any basics in that game.
Round 4 - 0-2 vs CoCo Elves - Never stood a chance. The deck was too fast. Turn 3 or 4 killed me both games through Leyline of Sanctity and Wishing for Firespout. Nothing I could do.
After playing tonight I can definitely say I like Glittering Wish and the sideboard. The good news is I was able to get Doubling Season down in quite a few games and Nissa's tokens can get scary good but the list definitely needs some changing. Let me know what you guys think but my first thoughts are this as an updated list:
4 Arbor Elf
4 Birds of Paradise
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Planeswalkers - 8
4 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
3 Nahiri, the Harbinger
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
Spells - 10
4 Path to Exile
4 Glittering Wish
2 Idyllic Tutor
Enchantments - 13
4 Oath of Nissa
4 Utopia Sprawl
2 Blood Moon
3 Doubling Season
4 Forest
2 Gavony Township
2 Razorverge Thicket
3 Stomping Ground
3 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Heroes' Reunion
1 Rest in Peace
1 Vexing Shusher
2 Firespout
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Nahiri, the Harbinger
1 Wilt-Leaf Liege
1 Fracturing Gust
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
Dragon Stompy - R 11-6-0
Ponza - RG 8-4-0
Tron - BG 1-2-0
Naya Burn - WRG 2-4-0
Spirits - UW2-2-0
Dragons - R
The idea with Idyllic Tutor was to be able to find my Moon's or Doubling Season if I didn't draw into them but in all the games I can't think of a single time I actually wanted to have Tutor in my hand, it was just a dead card most/all of the time. So cutting that isn't a difficult choice.
So that gives 6 slots open in the deck. Going up 3 walkers seems like a good idea. Then I am not sure if I just want to bring back the Sylvan Caryatid's or just add some Bolts. If we just stay dedicated to the deck's ramp and walker plan I can try out having the Wish board but ditch the Tutors and see how that goes. If I am not bringing in removal I can just go up some defensive walkers and try the list a little more like this:
4 Arbor Elf
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Sylvan Caryatid
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Planeswalkers - 11
4 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
3 Nahiri, the Harbinger
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
1 Gideon Jura
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Spells - 4
4 Glittering Wish
4 Oath of Nissa
4 Utopia Sprawl
2 Blood Moon
3 Doubling Season
Lands - 20
5 Forest
2 Gavony Township
2 Razorverge Thicket
2 Stomping Ground
3 Temple Garden
4 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Heroes' Reunion
1 Vexing Shusher
2 Firespout
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Wheel of Sun and Moon
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Nahiri, the Harbinger
1 Wilt-Leaf Liege
1 Fracturing Gust
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
1 Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker
Dragon Stompy - R 11-6-0
Ponza - RG 8-4-0
Tron - BG 1-2-0
Naya Burn - WRG 2-4-0
Spirits - UW2-2-0
Dragons - R
A clever opponent will always attack your manabase - ghost quarters, spreading seas, kill your dorks and utopias - the only type you can reliably get is green. And even if you can make it happen - you just don't have that many targets - it is not that good against eldrazi, and those who play tasigur usually can protect him.
I don't know much about Jeskai Ascendancy, but i know for sure that you are not winning counterspell war just because you have one counterspell. You still can only do this on turn four reliably, and that means if you are on the draw - they can double counterspell you anyway. And even if all goes according to the plan you still haven't won yet - you just played a good, efficient threat and tapped out. Next turn they can counter your spell and bounce nahiri, or d-sphere her, or, worst case for them, just collonade her in 3 hits.
It is stunning enough to kill Liliana =)
If only I could play 3 baloths.. I play one Baloth and one Liege, by the way. Sigarda is very slow - Jund is very good at denying you resources, and can can come in many forms - Death's shadow Jund, 8-rack, - which can handle your Sigarda just fine. An easy example - you start with dork, on their turn they play inquisition taking your utopia. You untap and have wish as your only turn 2 play. Do you play it? And if you do, do you Wish for Sigarda?
8 mana is turn three at best, for example: 1)t1 elf into t2 utopia+garruk 2)t1 elf into t2 overgrowth. 3)double elf+utopia. "Just" Garruk+another accelerator is turn four, double utopia+elf is turn four too. Wheel is not that good against storm, they can easily play around it. Ruric Thar, however, is just a good card by itself, i often board him in.
Ruric only cost 1 red mana, and we have lost of green so i don't see any problem here. If you mean that they destroy our ramp engines - that just means shields down on counterspells.
On Sigarda - I tried her, but after losing a cuple of games to Jund with Sigarda in hand i started to look for better cards. Wilt-leaf is always good when you "draw" it and is the only card you can reliably search on turn 2.
On guttural response - you actually have a point here, having a relevant wish target is better than just search for another walker, maybe in this list it is the only way to go. For my list blue control is an easy matchup, and i just don't want to waste a sideboard slot for a good matchup.
The way I see it we have a 56-card core, which can have 5 mana on T3 VERY consistently, and sometimes have 4 mana on T2. Additionally, if you don't have Doubling Season, you almost always has one of the powerful planeswalkers to play on T2 or T3. Here is that core:
5 Forest
8 Green Fetches
2 Breeding Pool
2 Stomping Ground
2 Temple Garden
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Arbor Elf
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Utopia Sprawl
4 Oath of Nissa
4 Doubling Season
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Jace, Architect of Thought
4 Nahiri, the Harbinger
3 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
1 Ral Zarek
Note: I tried maindeck hate cards like Worship and Blood Moon, then I tried using a bunch of token-creating PWs, but those don't always work and they cut our consistency of getting the combo.. That's why I am focused on "turbo"ing to the combo.
In the 4 flex slots, I have tried cards that shore up our weakness of finding a Doubling Season, namely:
Of these, the first two make us take a turn of of powering into the combo - so best case becomes T4 DS into T5 win. Commune worked OK, but only has about 30-35% chance of getting to the DS, and can't get a PW if that's what we need. I can't think of any other way to try to power into the combo. So, the question we are faced with is - What powerful thing can I do on T3 with 5 mana that will keep me alive? Maybe I'll go back to hate cards or powerful PWs like Gideon Jura, but I don't think those are broad enough, and I already have a sideboard full of them.
My new plan needs 5 slots, so I cut Ral (least consistent) and the 4 Communes and am adding 2x Platinum Emperion and 3x Madcap Experiment. I think it has promise, just waiting for the Emperions to come in the mail. What do y'all think? Double-Mad Planeswalkers?
BtW, here is a new list from japan - http://www.hareruyamtg.com/en/k/kD25366S/
I really dislike nissa, voice of zendikar and never really found her useful. I see most lists with her so if someone could convince me otherwise I would try her again, but I've never found much success with her. Instead, I'm playing courser of kruphix. The card blocks, generates card advantage, and gains life. I've also gone 5 colors and cut the blood moon for lingering souls. I still have the blood moon in the sideboard, but I feel lingering souls is much more versatile, and isn't dead/does nothing in like half of the matchups. You also have easy card drawing with spirits + tamiyo +1. This is the list I brought to last FNM, which I 4-0'd (I got very lucky, in bad matchups people mulling to 5/6 and missing land drops), but I think there's something here.
Any critique/suggestions would be awesome, as I'm constantly tweaking numbers around.
4 windswept heath
4 wooded foothills
2 misty rainforest
5 forest
2 temple garden
1 stomping ground
1 breeding pool
1 overgrown tomb
1 gavony township
4 birds of paradise
4 noble hierarch
4 sylvan caryatid
3 courser of kruphix
1 emrakul, the aeons torn
Spells - 11
4 oath of nissa
4 lingering souls
3 doubling season
4 nahiri, the harbinger
2 tamiyo, field researcher
1 jace, architect of thought
1 chandra, torch of defiance
1 xenagos the reveler
1 sorin, lord of innistrad
1 elspeth, sun's champion
1 karn liberated
It's true that she sucks in some matchups and often isn't a great draw late game, but isn't that also true of Courser?
I do really like the mainboard Lingering Souls over Blood Moon. Extra synergy with Doubling Season, too. Is Sorin really that good, though? I wouldn't think he'd be the card that pushes you into black. Honestly, Oath of Liliana is probably the black card I'd most be interested in trying out here. Most of the black planeswalkers aren't very exciting. At the very least, I'd think Sorin, Solemn Visitor would be preferable.
I also see you've cut Gideon Jura and Chandra, Flamecaller. I'm actually a big fan of both of those. What made you cut them? Especially while leaving in Xenagos (who I like, but he's probably one of the weaker cards).
If I had 12 Planeswalker slots, and I wasn't using Nissa, here's what I would do:
2 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
2 Xenagos, the Reveler
1 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Chandra, Flamecaller
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Gideon Jura
Maybe I'd make room for Elspeth, Sun's Champion. Not sure how I feel about Karn.
Some walkers I want to try out are ajani vengeant,tamiyo, the moon sage,sorin, solemn visitor,gideon, ally of zendikar,nissa, worldwaker
Chandra, Torch of Defiance actually has really nice synergy with Courser of Kruphix, since you always know whether you'd be able to cast (or whether you want to get rid of) the top card of your deck. Maybe it would be worth trying to play a second copy of her if you're running Courser.
I'm a big fan of Elspeth, but if I had to choose between her and Old Gideon I think I'd take Old Gideon. Gideon deals with evasion, and can soak up unlimited damage (though that's a trick he can only do once).
I'm a little leery to cut too many of the token-making planeswalkers, though, since they have extra synergy with Doubling Season.
As for your fatty planeswalker, have you tried Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker? Nicol Bolas actually might be the best one, although he's pretty tough to cast without Oath of Nissa.
Ajani Vengeant was a 2-of in the list Dennis posted, but no one seems to talk about him too much. He seems like he's probably worse than Chandra, Torch of Defiance unless you're playing against a fast deck where the lifegain is relevant. And if you're running Courser, you might not need more lifegain.
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage and Nissa, Worldwaker don't seem quite good enough to me, though Tamiyo might be worth trying. Perhaps her biggest issue is she conflicts with her future incarnation, which seems much better. Nissa, Worldwaker's second ability can basically untap all of our lands, but her ultimate doesn't do too much and her first ability doesn't seem particularly relevant. Nissa, Vital Force, on the other hand, seems like it might be worth a shot.
Having at least 1 bant tamiyo is super important for the case where you can jace ulti, but emrakul is in hand.
I'm still trying to figure out the best sideboard options for the deck though. Nicol bolas can be a good option vs an ensnaring bridge deck. Possibly rest in peace // stony silence as well.
Btw, here is another list that top4'ed a small event - http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=15437&d=293993&f=MO
It is rather unfocused (too many 1x-of PW's) imho and uses Noble Hierarch over Utopia Sprawl which is just worse.
Here's my list:
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Arbor Elf
2 Sylvan Caryatid
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Planeswalkers
4 Nahiri, the Harbinger
3 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
2 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
2 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Chandra, Flamecaller
1 Xenagos, the Reveler
1 Gideon Jura
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
4 Oath of Nissa
2 Doubling Season
2 Blood Moon
Lands
3 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Temple Garden
2 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
1 Sunpetal Grove
1 Rootbound Crag
1 Flooded Grove
2 Gavony Township
1 Westvale Abbey
4 Forest
3 Rest in Peace
3 Stony Silence
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Fog
2 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Blessed Alliance
2 Blood Moon
1 Idyllic Tutor
Tournament Report (2-2 but very close matches!)
I get Nahiri up to 8 counters and he has no creatures, but he combos off turn 4 and kills me game 1. I side in 3 Stony Silence and 3 Rest in Peace. Game 2 I get a turn 4 Doubling Season and turn 5 Nahiri. I kill his whole board but he doesn't concede because all I have left is a Birds and a Caryatid. Next turn I drop Nissa and make 2 plants; following turn I play a second Doubling Season, dump 4 counters on everything and swing for lethal.
Game 3 is fairly drawn out, I eventually get Emrakul out with Nahiri (no Doubling Season) but it looks like he might still be able to combo off next turn, despite being at 3 life and 2 lands. He can't, so next turn I'm able to tap down his blockers with Tamiyo, and swing out to finish him off. I never draw any of my boarded cards, but things worked out anyway.
Round 2: Affinity (loss)
I have a really good start game 1, but he gets Cranial Plating on an Etched Champion, so he can destroy my planeswalkers at will. I die pretty quickly after that. Game 2 I side in Stony Silence, which I get out fairly early, and really shuts him down. I stall him a while with Tamiyo since I can't find a win condition, but eventually get Doubling Season and a Jace. I cast Emrakul, take an extra turn, destroy his board, then play and ultimate Chandra, Torch of Defiance to finish him off.
Game 3 is very close, he gets me to 8 and has 2 Vault Skirges + Signal Pest. I play Doubling Season and pass, with both Tamiyo and Emrakul in hand. He gets me down to 3, and has the Galvanic Blast. I kind of suspected he had it, so maybe I should have played Tamiyo to lock down his Skirges or something, but I wasn't sure I had a clear shot at victory if I couldn't ult her.
Round 3: Jund (win)
Game 1 I mulligan because my only land is a Sunpetal Grove, despite having tons of mana dorks. Really need to replace those lands with something else, maybe fast lands. I take a sub-par 6 card hand and he takes my only 1 drop with Inquisition before my first turn. I'm pretty much dead in the water with nothing to cast before turn 4.
Game 2 I get the ridiculous play of turn 1 Hierarch, turn 2 Nissa, turn 3 Tamiyo, +1 her on the plant token, swing for 1 with exalted, draw a card, make another plant. He Maelstrom Pulses Tamiyo on his turn, but I have more planeswalkers and he kind of runs out of gas. Game 3 he gets kind of mana flooded, but I land something like a turn 4 Elspeth, Sun's Champion so I was feeling pretty good about my chances anyway.
Round 4: Grixis Control (loss, but we split)
Game 1 I get Nahiri up to 8 counters, but he bounces her. I play Doubling Season and replay Nahiri, ultimate her and kill him. Game 2 starts out with him Electrolyzing 2 Birds at once. Gross. He then draws something like 3 Fulminator Mages and has a Terminate for every mana dork I find after that. It was pretty silly, especially since this deck is like over 50% mana. I finally get up to 4 mana, but by then he has a Tasigur and an Angler.
Game 3 he's struggling for mana in the early game, but has a bunch of cheap counterspells. I eventually land a Chandra, Torch of Defiance and keep using her first ability, but despite basically drawing 2 cards a turn, I can't find too much. At least he's taking a lot of damage off her. Eventually she reveals an Elspeth, Sun's Champion, so I play her, but he Cryptics to counter her and tap down my board, allowing him to swing out and kill Chandra next turn. Ouch. She was at 7 loyalty, too. He then basically counters every spell I play after that (2 more cryptics and flashes one back with Snapcaster).
Overall the deck felt really solid, the matches I lost I still won one game. (My sideboard was missing a few cards too.) I feel like this deck could benefit from some counterspell resistance. I saw some decks playing 1 Alchemist's Refuge, which I might try now.
Changes: I'd be willing to go down 1 Nahiri, 1 Jace, and 1 Tamiyo for some different planeswalkers and maybe a 3rd Doubling Season. I'd like to try out Ajani Vengeant, and a second Gideon Jura might be good. Also, I see that one decklist is playing 1 Kiora, the Crashing Wave. I really like that card, but I wouldn't think it would be that good here. Gideon of The Trials might be worth testing, since it kind of hoses weird combo decks like Ad Nauseam.
Chandra, Torch of Defiance is a really solid card in this deck, I highly recommend at least 1. Its ultimate is game-winning, it ults immediately (and survives) with Doubling Season, it's card draw, it's removal, and it can just slowly ping someone to death. Not sure I'd run 2, especially with Flamecaller (which I think is the only planeswalker that never came up during my games, but I've found to be very good in testing).
Also, someone was suggesting Courser of Kruphix over Nissa, which I thought was interesting and I've done some testing with. I went with Nissa here, and I was actually fairly pleased with her every time she came up.
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Noble Hierarch
3 Arbor Elf
3 Sylvan Caryatid
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Enchantments:9
4 Oath of Nissa
3 Doubling Season
2 Blood Moon
Planeswalkers:15
3 Nahiri, the Harbinger
2 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
2 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
2 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Gideon Jura
1 Ral Zarek
1 Chandra, Flamecaller
1 Ajani, Mentor of Hereos
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Windswept Heath
2 Temple Garden
2 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
1 Horizon Canopy
1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
1 Gavony Township
1 Westvale Abbey
4 Forest
3 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Choke
2 Worship
1 Mizzium Mortars
1 Blood Moon
1 Fog
1 Boil
Also playing Arbor Elf without Utopia Sprawl seem counterintuitive to me.
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes seems like the weakest PW in the deck, another copy of any other PW would be better imho.
I'd also cut the Nykthos for a 2nd Breeding Pool.
I'd probably go with Engineered Explosives over Fog and Mizzium Mortars, and Choke seems rather weak as well (what deck does it hose ?).
My suggestions:
I really think 3 Nissa, Voice of Zendikar is worth it (unless you're playing another 1-of Nissa incarnation). Turn 2 Nissa can be backbreaking against many decks, and I've very rarely found it to be a dead draw.
While Ral Zarek is hilarious, I cut him from my deck. (It was hard, I even have a foil one!) I just don't think he does enough without Doubling Season, and even with Doubling Season, he only auto-wins you the game like 70% of the time.
Also, while Ajani, Mentor of Heroes can give you massive card advantage, he doesn't impact the board at all. How has he worked for you? I've always been interested in testing him out, but I never have. He does instantly ultimate off Doubling Season, but like Ral, I imagine that doesn't always seal the game.
What do you think about Xenagos, the Reveler? He actually works pretty well for me, especially since you can drop Doubling Season after he's in play for extra value. I'd definitely recommend at least 1. I've even hard-cast Emrakul with his +1 a few times. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar fills a similar role.
Finally, what are your thoughts on Nykthos? I still don't really see the value of it. I'd personally cut it for another Gavony Township.