I like Strike Leader better too. In fact Strike Leader is probably coming back in this update. But it depends what you're trying to do. This creature goes high rather than wide and has evasion. It will be better in some matchups.
I really focus on recursion in my black section, so this is super playable here. And it's a zombie too. Nice. So many possible inclusions from this set. Really didn't expect to have this problem. Can't remember the last time I had an actual dilemma like this.
Yes. A lot. In MY cube, it has exceeded expectations. In a mono black hyper agressive strategy, I think it's the most powerful 3 drop creature.
However, it is certainly much better in my cube than in other cubes.
How good is it in the average cube? You have to examine your zombie/recursive creature support and how often heavy black agro gets drafted (vs 50/50 split 2 color black agro).
There's three parts to the card
a) 3/2 menace for 3
b) "blood artist" for zombies
c) 5/4 menace for 3 if paired with an efficient recursive creature.
The base strength of the card is defined by c). b) adds some minor incidental damage, more than anything else. A welcome feature in an aggressive deck.
A 5/4 menace for 3 mana is a very powerful aggressive threat. While boring, if that's all the card was, you should be slamming it into your cube.
So, how often is that realized efficiently?
In the average black agro section I'd estimate that ~33% of the section is an efficient recursive creature. While that may not sound like much, what's relevant is the probability you will have 1 of these on the battlefield by the time you cast plague belcher. Due to their recursive nature, as long as you have 1 in your hand in the early game, it's very likely one will be on the battlefield by turn 3/4. I think that number is around ~60% if you are the only person drafting the strategy.
Now, how bad is the fail case of 3/2 menace with some upside for 3 mana? I think it's pretty solid, when you consider the incidental damage that b) provides.
Over 50% of the average black 1 drop section are zombies and many other cards in black are either zombies or produce zombies.
I can't say with certainty how good it is, but I would put my money down that it deserves a slot in 90% of cubes that support black agro.
I would put my money down that it deserves a slot in 90% of cubes that support black agro.
I'll take that bet. No way. In a small cube running multiple Gravecrawlers? Maybe. In a traditional singleton list? Not unless you're running a significantly higher-than-average number of recursive creatures. A black Boggart Brute is not what I'm in the market for. Unless your deck can make this a 5-power creature on T3 like 90% of the time, it's not going to be good enough.
Generic black aggro support isn't what determines this card's playability. Being all in on a sacrifice/recursion/aristocrats style of black aggro is.
I would put my money down that it deserves a slot in 90% of cubes that support black agro.
I'll take that bet. No way. In a small cube running multiple Gravecrawlers? Maybe. In a traditional singleton list? Not unless you're running a significantly higher-than-average number of recursive creatures. A black Boggart Brute is not what I'm in the market for. Unless your deck can make this a 5-power creature on T3 like 90% of the time, it's not going to be good enough.
Generic black aggro support isn't what determines this card's playability. Being all in on a sacrifice/recursion/aristocrats style of black aggro is.
Why go so deep on the hyperbole?
It's very far away from a "black boggard brute" in traditional cubes. Did you read the analysis?
All the creatures I listed are creatures that I think 95% of black agro supported cubes runs, which represents a bit less than 1/3 of a midsized black agro section.
From what I gathered, you playgroup drafts agro very heavy, which changes the probability of playing a deck with many recursive creature, since you are more likely to be running split two color decks. I think your playgroup is in the 10% I quoted...
"Generic black aggro support isn't what determines this card's playability"
I don't really understand what you mean here. I never made a statement like that. Even if you run a bunch of random good stuff black agro creatures, there are plenty of marginal additions that determine how good this card is. You don't have to consciously support "sacrifice/recursion/aristocrats style".
Not everyone shares the same opinion on what cards make up generic black agro support.
The number of zombies you run has a notable impact on the strength of this card as does their recursiveness.
IE A card like Geralf's messenger/Xathrid necromancer is much better with this card than say Vampire nighthawk/Drana.
Relentless dead vs Nezumi graverobber etc.
I guarantee you would be surprised the number of times you'd be happy to put the -1/-1 counters on another creature where it's MUCH better on the plague belcher, combined with the value in turning your other random 1 drop zombies into mini bombs. I will concede that the 90% figure is probably too high (40-60% more realistic), but I'm confident your evaluation of plague belcher is off.
Nice writeup Lucid. I initially dismissed this card as not all that interesting, but I now suspect it might play better than it reads based on your feedback. This feels like it could be an auto include in my midrange list (which heavily supports aristocrats). Not sure I want this in my retro combo list though, but I may have to test it now.
Ehh, even if I'm evaluating it as high as you are, it doesn't unseat any of my current 3-drops. Boggart Brute mode isn't where I want to be, and I don't think there are enough reliable creatures at 1 and 2 that recur for this.
Take a look at these possible scenarios (don't assume this all happens at once)
- Nuking Gravecrawler leaves you open for a 2 to 1 if they take out your Plague Belcher since there really aren't any playable 2-drop zombies. Recurring it the next turn is okay, but it slows your tempo down and messes up your curve.
- Nuking Bloodsoaked Champion is a bit more reliable as long as you have another 2-drop that can attack on turn 4 to recur the Champion. Still a bad tempo play, and your 2-drop might not be able to swing by itself on turn 4 (unless it's Scrapheap, lol).
- Nuking Wanderer is meh since you won't be able to recur it reliably until around turn 5 or 6 due to its pseudo-Hellbent requirement.
- Nuking Scrapheap Scrounger is detrimental since its body is more relevant than the others early game. Probably better off to just put the counters on Plague Belcher if Scrapheap is your only target by turn 3.
- Nuking Bloodghast ain't so bad since the landfall trigger really doesn't mess up your tempo.
- Nuking a Bitterblossom token is fine since it just replaces itself anyways
I like him a lot more in a sacrifice package with increased zombie support, but I don't see him making the cut in my black aggro / stax lists.
- Nuking Gravecrawler leaves you open for a 2 to 1 if they take out your Plague Belcher since there really aren't any playable 2-drop zombies. Recurring it the next turn is okay, but it slows your tempo down and messes up your curve.
I like him a lot more in a sacrifice package with increased zombie support, but I don't see him making the cut in my black aggro / stax lists.
Nuking gravecrawler leaves you open to a 2 for 1 IF you have no other zombies for a while. But I'm guessing half your 1 drops are zombies, as well as some cards at higher CMC? IF they don't kill your plague belcher, you have a zombie bomb recurring machine and a 5/4 menace.
While it's not as "safe" in a traditional cube as some of the interactions you listed, it's probably the most powerful one.
Respect your conclusion. Mostly sharing it as it's exceeded my expectations/evaluations to the point where I think he's worth testing in other cubes. It was more that my theory crafting didn't do justice to how powerful the card is, so I wouldn't be surprised if that applied to other people.
You should know your list/environment a lot better than me and the 3 drop slot is pretty stacked with decent/non spectacular creatures, which this guy probably is as well.
Keep in mind that over time they keep printing good agressive recursive creatures. That could significantly change the value of plague bearer over time. Given how sensitive his power is to the environment, it's a card that should be payed attention to IMO.
This: "I would put my money down that it deserves a slot in 90% of cubes that support black agro." ...Is pretty blatant hyperbole.
Belcher is good if you pair it with a recursion creature on curve. It's bad if you don't. So saying that it belongs in 90% of black aggro shells/cubes is just inaccurate, unless you're all in on supporting the recursion deck, and/or you're playing a small cube that allows multiple Gravecrawlers. There are a lot of black aggro decks in traditionally structured cubes that wouldn't come near Belcher during the drafting/deckbuilding process.
Note: I realize my tone was probably too sharp in the first response yesterday. Forgive me, it was at the ass-end of a very long day. Didn't mean to come off curt, just trying to share observations from the other side of the coin.
To be honest it was more enthusiasm leading to an overly optimistic estimate, not really hyperbole.
I explored some cubes here and over estimated the number of zombies people play by a bit.
Thinking about it more and more, probably in the 25-40% range with that number increasing as more good recursive Agro creatures (preferably zombies) get printed... that is of course they don't also print sick mythic bomb creatures at 3 black mana.
there so many solid but not spectacular black 3 drops that even a slight difference in evaluation and environment could put this guy anywhere from 4th place to like 10th heh.
played this alongside ammit eternal last night and went 3-0 with these 5 power three drops just hammering their way through. aditional drain from my kalitas, traitor of ghet tokens was just the gravy on top.
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Yes. A lot. In MY cube, it has exceeded expectations. In a mono black hyper agressive strategy, I think it's the most powerful 3 drop creature.
However, it is certainly much better in my cube than in other cubes.
How good is it in the average cube? You have to examine your zombie/recursive creature support and how often heavy black agro gets drafted (vs 50/50 split 2 color black agro).
There's three parts to the card
a) 3/2 menace for 3
b) "blood artist" for zombies
c) 5/4 menace for 3 if paired with an efficient recursive creature.
The base strength of the card is defined by c). b) adds some minor incidental damage, more than anything else. A welcome feature in an aggressive deck.
A 5/4 menace for 3 mana is a very powerful aggressive threat. While boring, if that's all the card was, you should be slamming it into your cube.
So, how often is that realized efficiently?
1 cmc:
Dread wanderer
Gravecrawler
Blood Soaked Champion
2 cmc:
Bloodghast
Scrapheap scrounger
Bitterblosm*
3 cmc:
ophiomancer
In the average black agro section I'd estimate that ~33% of the section is an efficient recursive creature. While that may not sound like much, what's relevant is the probability you will have 1 of these on the battlefield by the time you cast plague belcher. Due to their recursive nature, as long as you have 1 in your hand in the early game, it's very likely one will be on the battlefield by turn 3/4. I think that number is around ~60% if you are the only person drafting the strategy.
Now, how bad is the fail case of 3/2 menace with some upside for 3 mana? I think it's pretty solid, when you consider the incidental damage that b) provides.
Over 50% of the average black 1 drop section are zombies and many other cards in black are either zombies or produce zombies.
I can't say with certainty how good it is, but I would put my money down that it deserves a slot in 90% of cubes that support black agro.
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I'll take that bet. No way. In a small cube running multiple Gravecrawlers? Maybe. In a traditional singleton list? Not unless you're running a significantly higher-than-average number of recursive creatures. A black Boggart Brute is not what I'm in the market for. Unless your deck can make this a 5-power creature on T3 like 90% of the time, it's not going to be good enough.
Generic black aggro support isn't what determines this card's playability. Being all in on a sacrifice/recursion/aristocrats style of black aggro is.
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Why go so deep on the hyperbole?
It's very far away from a "black boggard brute" in traditional cubes. Did you read the analysis?
All the creatures I listed are creatures that I think 95% of black agro supported cubes runs, which represents a bit less than 1/3 of a midsized black agro section.
From what I gathered, you playgroup drafts agro very heavy, which changes the probability of playing a deck with many recursive creature, since you are more likely to be running split two color decks. I think your playgroup is in the 10% I quoted...
"Generic black aggro support isn't what determines this card's playability"
I don't really understand what you mean here. I never made a statement like that. Even if you run a bunch of random good stuff black agro creatures, there are plenty of marginal additions that determine how good this card is. You don't have to consciously support "sacrifice/recursion/aristocrats style".
Not everyone shares the same opinion on what cards make up generic black agro support.
The number of zombies you run has a notable impact on the strength of this card as does their recursiveness.
IE A card like Geralf's messenger/Xathrid necromancer is much better with this card than say Vampire nighthawk/Drana.
Relentless dead vs Nezumi graverobber etc.
I guarantee you would be surprised the number of times you'd be happy to put the -1/-1 counters on another creature where it's MUCH better on the plague belcher, combined with the value in turning your other random 1 drop zombies into mini bombs. I will concede that the 90% figure is probably too high (40-60% more realistic), but I'm confident your evaluation of plague belcher is off.
Last Updated 02/07/24
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http://riptidelab.com/forum/threads/modular-cube-5-colors.800/
Retro combo cube thread
http://riptidelab.com/forum/threads/retro-combo-cube.1454/
Take a look at these possible scenarios (don't assume this all happens at once)
Turn 1: Land, Gravecrawler / Champion / Wanderer
Turn 2: Land, Scrounger / Bloodghast / Bitterblossom
Turn 3: Plague Belcher
Let's look at our options:
- Nuking Gravecrawler leaves you open for a 2 to 1 if they take out your Plague Belcher since there really aren't any playable 2-drop zombies. Recurring it the next turn is okay, but it slows your tempo down and messes up your curve.
- Nuking Bloodsoaked Champion is a bit more reliable as long as you have another 2-drop that can attack on turn 4 to recur the Champion. Still a bad tempo play, and your 2-drop might not be able to swing by itself on turn 4 (unless it's Scrapheap, lol).
- Nuking Wanderer is meh since you won't be able to recur it reliably until around turn 5 or 6 due to its pseudo-Hellbent requirement.
- Nuking Scrapheap Scrounger is detrimental since its body is more relevant than the others early game. Probably better off to just put the counters on Plague Belcher if Scrapheap is your only target by turn 3.
- Nuking Bloodghast ain't so bad since the landfall trigger really doesn't mess up your tempo.
- Nuking a Bitterblossom token is fine since it just replaces itself anyways
I like him a lot more in a sacrifice package with increased zombie support, but I don't see him making the cut in my black aggro / stax lists.
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Nuking gravecrawler leaves you open to a 2 for 1 IF you have no other zombies for a while. But I'm guessing half your 1 drops are zombies, as well as some cards at higher CMC? IF they don't kill your plague belcher, you have a zombie bomb recurring machine and a 5/4 menace.
While it's not as "safe" in a traditional cube as some of the interactions you listed, it's probably the most powerful one.
Respect your conclusion. Mostly sharing it as it's exceeded my expectations/evaluations to the point where I think he's worth testing in other cubes. It was more that my theory crafting didn't do justice to how powerful the card is, so I wouldn't be surprised if that applied to other people.
You should know your list/environment a lot better than me and the 3 drop slot is pretty stacked with decent/non spectacular creatures, which this guy probably is as well.
Keep in mind that over time they keep printing good agressive recursive creatures. That could significantly change the value of plague bearer over time. Given how sensitive his power is to the environment, it's a card that should be payed attention to IMO.
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I was kinda asking you the same thing...
This: "I would put my money down that it deserves a slot in 90% of cubes that support black agro." ...Is pretty blatant hyperbole.
Belcher is good if you pair it with a recursion creature on curve. It's bad if you don't. So saying that it belongs in 90% of black aggro shells/cubes is just inaccurate, unless you're all in on supporting the recursion deck, and/or you're playing a small cube that allows multiple Gravecrawlers. There are a lot of black aggro decks in traditionally structured cubes that wouldn't come near Belcher during the drafting/deckbuilding process.
Note: I realize my tone was probably too sharp in the first response yesterday. Forgive me, it was at the ass-end of a very long day. Didn't mean to come off curt, just trying to share observations from the other side of the coin.
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To be honest it was more enthusiasm leading to an overly optimistic estimate, not really hyperbole.
I explored some cubes here and over estimated the number of zombies people play by a bit.
Thinking about it more and more, probably in the 25-40% range with that number increasing as more good recursive Agro creatures (preferably zombies) get printed... that is of course they don't also print sick mythic bomb creatures at 3 black mana.
there so many solid but not spectacular black 3 drops that even a slight difference in evaluation and environment could put this guy anywhere from 4th place to like 10th heh.
Last Updated 02/07/24
Streaming Standard/Cube on Twitch https://www.twitch.tv/heisenb3rg96
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My 630 Card Powered Cube
My Article - "Cube Design Philosophy"
My Article - "Mana Short: A study in limited resource management."
My 49th Set (P)review - Discusses my top 20 Cube cards from MKM!