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  • 1

    posted a message on Modern Spirits
    SpookyGoose, thanks for stopping by the forum! I took some of your ideas and have been tweaking my own UW build, and to me the deck seems like a pretty good call right now. Seeing your list inspired me to finally try the Curious Obsessions and ditch the Phantasmal Images--I also like the Horizon Canopy tech. Finally, you convinced me that I'd be OK at 20 lands. However, like StreexGeist, your Auriok Champion looks a little greedy to me, and I also wonder how well you like it--WW and UU spells have been very hard to cast with my land package. I did not like Deprive, for instance (although of course you can't Vial in a Deprive).

    Here is the build I went 4-0-1 with today. I could easily have won the draw, if I hadn't punted hard in G1. The event was a "Golden Ticket for the Portland GP" tourney:

    I play twice a week (nine rounds) on paper at a busy and competitive LGS. I put UW together after not liking the Bant/Vial list, and my current record across my changing builds is 14-3-2.

    Here is my thinking about my choices:
    • The Remand is a pet card, and until today I had two in the main, with three Echoing Truth in the side, but I moved one Truth to the main today, and it felt right. I have to admit that Remand doesn't really feel very relevant most of the time.
    • I really dig Nebelgast Herald a lot. Playing with its ability at flash speed is very good against a lot of creature decks (ahem *Humans*). It and Rattlechains are a dynamite pairing in many game states. I kind of want a second copy in the side, actually.
    • Echoing Truth is an absolute all-star for me. It bounces opponent's stuff (Hi, Bedlam Reveler...Bye!), often getting two-for-one (from a tempo perspective). It's explicitly important against graveyard decks, but also hits so many other troublesome permanents. It also saves our own stuff, whether creatures against Terminus, or a RiP against Dredge. I'm not considering fewer than three in the 75.
    • Last night and today were the first rounds I played with Curious Obsession, and I am completely sold on it. I am probably going to take out the Remand for the third copy.
    • I side out Geist a lot. The lack of evasion really matters.
    • I absolutely do not want to run Worship or Settle the Wreckage in my 20 land list.
    • I'm loaded for bear against graveyard and artifact decks right now, which feels correct for the current meta, the way I see it. But I've beaten Dredge 2-0 in the last couple days, including once on a mull to five (on the draw), and also two post-board games where I drew zero hate, so maybe I'm over-prepared. Again, Truth helps a LOT against these decks.
    • I waffle back and forth on the Mutavault/Moorland Haunt split.
    I am thinking about some minor changes: -1 Remand for +1 Obsession in the main, and -1 Stony, -1 RiP for +1 Hurkyl's Recall, +1 Nebelgast Herald in the side. The list feels great to play right now.


    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • 2

    posted a message on Modern Humans
    I have been mulling over Militia Bugler and I think I have a conclusion. Looking for verification that my framing of this probability problem, and my reasoning, are correct: I think Bugler fills the flex slots going forward, no question, as soon as it's legal. Maybe even as more than a two-of.

    Here's an explanation of my thought process. I used an online hypergeometric calculator to do the math for me. My assumptions:
    • The sample size is four;
    • The population is the number of cards remaining in the library (N);
    • The number of successes are (N) - ((remaining Mantis Riders [max. 4]) + (remaining lands [max. 18]) + (remaining Vials [max 3]) + (non-Mantis Rider creatures drawn so far [varies]));
    • We want one or more hits;
    • We play a standard Vial build with Bugler as the two flex spots.

    Test Case: I tried to consider how to minimize live hits and maximize dead ones for this scenario. A very bad situation (worse cases could be imagined of course) for a hit off Bugler would be in the following game:
    • We kept an opening seven on the draw with one land, one Vial, and all creatures. We never draw any Mantis Riders, lands or Vials.
    • We cast Bugler on T4, off a T1 Vial and only one land in play.
    • We cast two one-drops on T2, and another one-drop and a two-drop on T3 (or kept all these in hand, doesn't matter for this, as long as these cards are not in the library).
    • The rest of our hand (on the draw, four non-Bugler cards remain in hand) is also only made up of potential hits for Bugler. Now, 18 lands, 4 Mantis Riders, and 3 Vials remain in our library.
    • In this scenario, we have 24/49 hits left in our library, which leads to a 92.9% chance to get one or more targets in the top four cards.
    Conclusion: Even when the library is skewed towards dead draws, Militia Bugler is still extremely likely to be a two-for-one at a decent rate.

    Granted, sometimes Bugler is going to bottom a Mantis Rider and whiff; or instead, draw a late-game Champion, Hierarch, or other low-impact card. However, in other cases it will whiff, but by doing so it will bottom four consecutive dead draws.

    Running out of threats is this deck's weak point. Digging for more action will make the deck more consistent, and as shown, Bugler can be expected to hit in the large majority of cases. The point about finding sideboard cards is also well said and adds to Bugler's virtues.

    Note that Bugler gets worse in decks with Kessig Malcontents, Restoration Angel, Thalia, Heretic Cathar, and the like--though it is also probably in contention with those specific cards for the slots.

    If my framing of the problem is useful (criticisms welcome!) then Bugler seems an auto-include, no question. Thoughts?
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • 1

    posted a message on Modern Hollow One discussion
    Souls is good but enchantments are not a huge problem in most metas, so it seems to me that Ancient Grudge is where we want to be for Lantern, KCI, and Affinity. Grudge is waaaaay better than the White artifact removal, due to its flashback.

    I've played a lot of Lingering Souls in Modern (though never in this deck), but it's grindy card in a deck that is trying to win fast. Doesn't seem like a great fit, to me. I would probably want it in a meta with lots of Control decks in it, but right now my local meta is defined by Blood Moon and Ensnaring Bridge... which is exactly why I am playing this deck, with 2x EE and 3x Grudge in the 75.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • 1

    posted a message on Modern Hollow One discussion
    Disclaimer: All of the below pertains to my perspective on the RB build.

    I have considered a second Stomping Grounds but I decided that's not correct. Normally T1 puts us at 17, and then Street Wraith knocks us around too. We definitely want both R and B by T2, and we have only 18 lands. Doubling the chances of a Mountain that hits us for 2 in our opening hand is not good. Abrupt Decay doesn't really seem needed for this deck, and actually casting it would certainly come with a lot of pain. To me, it's not worth the tradeoff of being more resistant to milling our only source of G away (or having it destroyed)--instead I think we just prioritize fetching it right away when we're expecting to need it.

    Personally my sideboard is close to yours, but I think you need Brutality instead of Thoughtseize, unless you can be certain you don't have Burn in your local meta. I'm also not sold on Lili, since BB on T3 is far from guaranteed, and I'm not really sure what matches I'd want it in.
    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • 1

    posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    re: recent Masters sets sucking...

    MM17 was amazing, guys, c'mon.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 1

    posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    If there are fewer players, then there is less demand, hence prices will drop. This is literally the very first, most fundamental principle of markets. It was a bizarre statement.

    I don't know anything about the overall size of the Modern player base but personally I tend to interpret rising prices (often in the face of reprints) as being pretty fair evidence that Modern is growing, not shrinking.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    Quote from Pokken »
    And at the match level, Magic is an extremely high variance game, particularly in modern
    This specific grievance has been addressed and refuted on this very thread many times already.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 2

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    I am not getting how Humans isn't a White deck. W is the only color that every land taps for. Seven of the deck's ten core creatures need white to cast. There are only three of the core creatures that don't need white, and crucially, one of those taps for W. The side is also frequently half white. If it weren't for White, and its particular color identity traits, there could be no Humans deck.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on Modern Humans
    Kataki, War's Wage doesn't get rid of Ensnaring Bridge, it's true. Nevertheless I am not sold on Vithian Renegades because it is kinda limited too. Kataki seems much better against Affinity, and Meddling has only two really relevant targets in Lantern--Bridge and Whir of Invention. This means Freeboter/Meddling/Phantasmal disruption stands a decent chance at keeping the Bridge off the board in the first place.

    Anyway I am going backwards with the list, to a certain extent. (No Mayors though.) I like Phantasmal as a 4-of since it is so amazingly versatile, and I like Thalia as a 4-of because I want to see her in every game since her effect is so asymmetrical for us and can be a powerful part of the tempo lines we sometimes take. I could see going down to 3 only, but copy #4 gives about a 9% greater chance of landing one on T2 when it matters, which seems like a pretty relevant figure. So for now this is what I am planning for the next couple weeklies I'll attend:

    For a while I was messing around with flex slots but I feel like I never really found something that seemed worth running as a singleton. I'm going to try going all-in on consistency with the core creatures. I have liked the additional 1-drop for sure, since it helps ensure something relevant to do on T1 (or on T2 if I also have a Vial). Kytheon should maybe be Thraben Inspector instead, but Gideon is pretty good and flips pretty regularly when I land Kytheon on T1 or T2.

    Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)
    Natural State could work but the Vial Humans deck (with seven lands for W) probably wants Fragmentize or Disenchant. Pretty tough to cast non-creature spells in a Vial build though. But you are right, Humans could also adapt to a meta that was adapting to it.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
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