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A Reckoning on Kamigawa
The Magic Market Index for Oct 20, 2017
The Magic Market Index for Oct 13, 2017
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Erm... no. This is... just flat out wrong.

    This all presupposes that my intent when I was making this post was to give the thread insight into my slots state of mind. Like, you seem to think that... when I was making the post, the thoughts running through my head should have been relating to the concequences of my post... which is a scum mentality. You're presupposing I'm scum and going from there. You're tunneling. Try to look at these things objectively. It's hard to take you seriously while you're thinking like this about me.
    Your counterargument strikes me as nonsensical I'm going to skip that for now because I think this next question will clear that up too:
    What was your intent when making #142 and your content up to (not including) #286?

    Quote from Killjoy »

    Like, you're literally calling questions relevent to, at the bare minimum, my mindset this game noise. That's jsut factually incorrect.
    Tell me what you got out of some of the questions in #142, or some other post of yours before #286. I have a hard time believing you got anything meaningful out of it.

    Quote from Killjoy »

    And I obviously disagreed with your 296 even if I didn't specifically say it.
    I've never seen anybody in a debate give their piece while /completely ignoring/ the opposing arguments. It strikes me as fake.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    Reaverb: Your play this game has felt more about pushing to lynch people rather than pushing to find alignments. For instance Tubba; you pushed him for a certain progression he made, then when you realized your missed a post, you didn't really reevaluate that read so much as seem disappointed you couldn't push him more. You've also been a little jumpy/preemptive with keeping people from pushing you. Your first two posts of the game are an example of this, as well your post where you throw out percentage likelihoods of Colin and KJ being scum then immediately cover it with "but those are just eyeball'd, don't hold me to them".

    Just reading through your posts there's a bunch of small markers all over that are scummy in a vacuum as well, and not a lot of indicators of a townie mindset that I can see.
    1) I as very disappointed when my King Torg progression turned out to be factually wrong. I thought I had a caught a scum, then it turns out I hadn't. It also indicated even if my reads contain factual errors the thread isn't going to be able to help me correct them, and having other players check my work is my favorite part of posting reads in-thread.
    2) I hate getting pushed for all the same reasons Voxx does, plus I actually get mislynched occasionally so it's even worse.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Killjoy cont. (from #416)

    #186 is very similar to #142 in style, it also has lots of noise and little signal. Not going to break it down like #142 unless somebody wants me to, but the only good thing in the post is his read on Voxx (which is a towntell, building a read on a false premise so you can undermine it later when convenient is a theoretically good scum strategy but I've never actually seen somebody do it).

    #223 is very similar to #142 and #186, although it also adds asking me a bunch of questions for scumreading him, which is something I didn't notice earlier.

    He continues the pattern of noise-without-activity until #286 (once again I can break down any singe specific post but if I tried to dissect his entire ISO I'd be here for hours). In reaction to my noise-without-signal read, he posts a readsposts.

    Readsposts aren't always good, but one thing they are very good is forcing players to draw conclusions. Killjoy's only clear positions before #286 were Voxx!Town, Osie!scum and hesitatingly scumreading DoTA and myself based on a specific response to a question. he didn't draw any line with the other players - just did snapshot reads that could be remixed or dismissed later.

    Quote from Killjoy »

    Lean Town:

    Less Town:

    King Torg

    Less Scum:
    Reaverb Tau

    Lean Scum:


    Voxx: I've given reasons for this, and his later posts have held true to it. He's trying to solve the game, Voxx style.

    Colin: hasn't posted much, but I like where his head is at. He's critically thinking. Potentially a little biased because a lot of that has gone into thinking I'm town and defending me.

    Bear: Similar to Colin, Critically thinking, but less so.

    Vaimes: This is MOSTLY sheeping Voxx. He seems pretty sure that Vaimes is town, and I've had a bunch of trouble reading Vaimes. So I'm trusting Voxx on this for now.

    Shadow: His early posts were giving me town vibes, like I said... plus the speed of the early wagon on him makes me think it was probably a wagon on town. That said, Vaimes did make a good point that shadow asking who on his wagon is scum and not doing the work is weird. Also he doesn't want to lynch either of the major wagons, which is also weird.

    Tubba/King Torg/Jenna: None of these have really made a large impression on me.

    REaver: I don't fully understand where he's coming from. Like, he thinks I'm scum for not posting a reads list, but never asks me for one. Also his 214 feels off.

    DotA: Been over this. Not really scum but specifically doesn't really feel town, which I don't like.

    Osie: I plan later today to make a post on this. Suffice it to say his mindset feels scummy to me.

    This makes me feel slightly worse about scumreading Killjoy but it's not strong. All the underlines are places he keeps using weasel words that don't actually mean anything. "Critically thinking" isn't something verifiable. I think a Townie would be more likely to say something along the lines of "..though process on X and Y is critically thinking because Z and W etc." Flatly asserting somebody is "critically thinking" is not going to convince anybody of that fact. Bold is things already stated in thread.

    I do like that he specifically ranked players. That is at the very least something we can cross-reference later and does fit with his stated views of the gamestate. He did not, however, take the opportunity to elaborate on his reads or even bring in very much of the comments he made on the thread in his previous activity.

    His next "big" post is his Osie post, which is very too-little-to-late for trying to swing the lynch, so it seems like something he posted because he had already put the work in:

    Quote from Killjoy »
    So, faking a post restriction is NAI. So I don't care about that.

    Osie first got on my radar with the vote on Voxx. It felt... off. Like he was just trying to do... something.

    Osie's 118 is the next thing that bothered me. Its a train of thought post, Except some of the questions are meaningless (how much wood could a woodchuck chuck?)

    The Reads list in 129 is another thing. Its full of weak townreads and fence sitting.Gives him the freedom to mostly go anywhere with his reads should he need to.

    The whole post on Jenna seems ridiculous. IDK if Osie just didn't think that through, but what I (and now Vaimes) have alluded to is that the way she's doing this isn't something scum would necessarily do.

    I pointed out 220. 200 posts into the game where quite a bit has happened and his best lynches are all based on his tinfoil worlds instead of ACTUAL things.

    245, 277 are just barning Voxx. 277 in particular I'm annoyed he's not here to answer my question becuase it's very important.I need him to answer what behavior he objected to. It looks outwardly like he's just trying to copy Voxx with no reasons of his own.

    The only thing thats giving me pause here (that I'm realizing right now) is that, ISOing him... nothing seems town.Like... nothing. Its all either superficial or scum.So. Shrug?

    But all this stuff still adds up to scum, I think.

    First, I am surprised he did not specifically deny my #296. He states he saw not reason to Townread Osie, but doesn't discuss my reasons for townreading Osie.

    Second, note this readspost is very independent of the things he's been commented on. I believe Killjoy had mentioned 118 and 220 recently, but I'm not entirely sure (no post numbers in quotes). This is indicative - even Killjoy isn't particularly using his stream-of-conciousness style comments.

    I do think this is still a Town Points Post (tm). It's just suppressed by the things I don't like and then killjoy's net is brought down by his other content.

    #405 is then a return to stream-of-conciousness low impact-ism.


    @Voxx Can you talk more about your townread on Killjoy and the case here?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Basic idea on Killjoy:

    He wants to look Town more than he actually wants to help Town.

    I want to bring up #142 and #186 again.

    I've said in the past they're bringing up old posts just to look Town and not actually trying to solve the game. Let's dissect #142.

    It's composed of 13 posts and response by Killjoy. Coloring to be explained later. In order:

    Quote 1 - Vaimes - A question to Vaimes Killjoy never follows up on.
    Quote 2 - Voxxicus - Vox townread based on a single post
    Quote 3 - Osie - Asks about Vaimes meta
    Quote 4 - Colin - compliments Colin's joke post
    Quote 5 - King Torg - compliments Torg's joke post
    Quote 6 - Reaverb Tau (myself) - Killjoy states they are townreading Shadow for "town vibes"
    Quote 7 - Osie - States they don't like Osie's Voxx vote. They give no reasons for not liking the vote, and do not say how much that makes them think Osie is scum
    Quote 8 - Shadow - Tries to establish Voxx-shadow meta relationship
    Quote 9 - Voxx - States that DotA and Osie are anti-aligned with Shadow, and there was probably a scum on the Shadow wagon
    Quote 10 - Voxx - Asks how confident Voxx is in their Vaimes read, and asks for Voxx's Osie read
    Quote 11 - King Torg - Asks King Torg what they think is the motivation for a DoTA post given DoTA is scum
    Quote 12 - DoTA - asks about more information of why DoTA thinks Shadow's phrasing when talking about the lynch is seems scummy.
    Quote 13 - Jenna - asks Jenna who the most likely scumbuddy of Osie is.

    Post ends with Killjoy voting Osie

    First note he didn't actually say that all much, it looks like a big wall of text with the quotes but it's a couple paragraphs with long explanations.

    Second, what he did say was not particularly +EV Town. Brown are things which are clearly not helpful. Orangish-yellow are questions that are somewhat helpful but clarify things which would likely be cleared up if they ever became relevant. Purple are reads which have little justification and don't commit to anything - Killjoy is free to walk them back at any time, and they cannot be challenged by players who think they are wrong because there's no clear premises and chain of logic. The Red comment repeats ideas already well established in-thread. Blue is a couple questions I just think are weak and establish minutiae not particularly relevant to discussion - nobody is seriously going to lynch Shadow based on just some poor wording.

    To be continued tomorrow.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    I still exist, sorry about that, Killjoy case coming out tonight or tomorrow.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    I'm not saying you can't have multiple scumspects, I am saying that talking about 3 people you find scummy and then voting a fourth you don't even mention is scum behavior.
    I've talked on why I scumread Killjoy before, I'm planning to make another post on him in the next day or so. I hate having my vote doing nothing. I also think you're putting too much weight on "might be scum with DoTA", I don't want to lynch either of you this Day phase.
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    And now I'm not going to explain because I want to see how high you can make that post number.
    Please re-read post #221

    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    But really though, you think my back and forth with Voxx is scum theater, or even that we are both scum individually? I just don't buy that.
    Voxx has done nothing remotely outside of his scum range. I don't know you hugely well except that you're good at both town and scum, and you don't appear to have done much outside of get wagoned (which I said from the start might have been an intentional distancing measure) and given reads without many reasons. I don't know which Voxx/you exchange you're referring to, but nothing struck me as significantly indicative of anti-alignment when reading through it.

    Number of posts shadow has made without explaining his scumread on me after trying to get me lynched D1: 5
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    @Colin Still want an answer to this:
    Quote from Reaverb Tau »
    Quote from Colin »

    In my experience a "reads-post" would be more indicative of scum. It gives more room for maneuverability and it's lazier. The post felt really good to me. When I read it I felt comfortable, like it's a natural post rather than a constructed one. As I've said earlier I'm an emotional player, so that's going to skew things which can be read multiple ways at times. Either way, I think the post is a good measuring stick showing Killjoy's thought process which can be used to compare future posts and interactions.
    Could you give an example of something you think Killjoy has committed to? Give an example of something Killjoy could post that you would call a walk-back. Because right now he hasn't committed to any reads except Voxx being Town, which was justified with false premises anyway.

    I am caught up with the thread now, if I haven't answered a question please bring it up.

    Number of posts shadow has made without explaining his scumread on me after trying to get me lynched D1: 3
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    Your suspicion of me/Voxx as a team is laughably ridiculous and just not a thought I believe you would have as town; annnnnnd then voting a person you haven't even mentioned in this post after spouting 3 other people you think are scum? Nope.
    If it's "laughably ridiculous" then you should be able to explain why it's wrong, shouldn't you?

    Killjoy is another scumread of mine. Tunneling on a single world is obviously anti-Town behavior.


    Since shadow seems to love dodging questions, I'm going to put this as a signature on all my posts until he properly explains his scumread on me.

    Number of posts shadow has made without explaining his scumread on me after trying to get me lynched D1: 3
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Regarding your feelings on Bear, I'm inclined to take your word for it, I've no previous experience with them so everything you say could be true and a perfectly valid reason to put vote pressure on them. However, I dont think you are going to be able to bring enough people on with what is essentially a meta read to make a lynch happen there. Talk to me about Osie, Tau, Dot and Colin. Does your meta offer you any insight on those players?

    @Tubba Fett

    Why are you inclined to take Voxx's word for anything? Are you townreading Voxx? If so, why had you not mentioned it before this post? Why didn't you vote A Bear here?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Also, part of your argument in posts to others seems to be that you want a reads list from me. Why haven't you just asked me for it?

    I'm used to asking for reads list being considered rude due to the effort involved. Does that not apply here due to the Day length?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Quote from Reaverb Tau »
    This is terrible.

    First sentence is "I feel like Killjoy is reading the thread, and therefore and Townreading him" ???

    Second/Third sentences are....I don't know where or how much forum mafia you've played in the past but necroquoting (neologism by me, pretty clear analogy to necroposting) is something I've seen from scum more often than Town. For the exact reasons you mentioned, it helps players look Town while being significantly less +EV Town than most other types of content. Also, a good amount of the content in #142 was the equivalent of Killjoy responding to a post with "lol".

    Fourth sentence "presents a lot of opportunities for the other players to interact with him": That would be a lot better accomplished with a reads-post, and having everybody start arguing about necroquotes tends to degrade Town conversation more than it actually helps.

    Final sentence is fine, although asking questions as scum isn't rocket science.

    First sentence: That wasn't his argument. His argument was that i had a clear train of thought.

    Second/Third: Why is specifically the way I entered the game scum vs. town? Your arguments of "He could do that as scum" are kinda flimsy, and are easily countered with "he could do that as town though." Why are you so intent on scumreading me for this, and why didn't you bring this up earlier?

    Fourth: I could have, but I didn't. This is what I did. Just because I didn't enter the game like you would have doesn't make me scum.

    This all seems out of nowhere. I'm not sure where it came from. I was null in 149 and now I'm scum?

    Your content up until your readspost was all things that are more effective at making somebody /look/ Town rather than /actually helping Town/ (relative to most other types of content). Nitpicking specific ancient posts makes it looks like you're evaluating everything in-thread, but it's much less effective than scanning ISOs for particular patterns of behavior or specifically ranking players in a way that can later referenced or discussed.

    I put you as null in #149 because I thought it might have been a 1-shot catch-up post, but then #186 was almost identical in style. I think townreading you for that post is still weird.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Catching up on the thread.

    Shadow/Voxx should still explain their scumreads on me, and their EoD behavior in general. Right now I'm thinking one or both might be scum with DoTA and intentionally used the Bear wagon to redirect away from DoTA. Particularly weird is shadow talking about how terrible the EoD chaos was when he was a major cause of it.

    If you have an outstanding question, I will mention when I've caught up so you know if I've genuinely missed it.

    Vote: Killjoy
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]

    I agree their behavior on the shadow wagon was scummy, assume you've drawn your own opinions.

    First, unlike DoTA, Osie's reads have had explanations. I haven't normally agreed with them - I think #129 was nitpicky and overread into the little info available at the time - but it specifically called out posts in several places and described some fine-grained distinctions (for example, it calls Voxx "fake" vs. King Trog "posting to be a part of things". It describes shadow as "prodding" and TubbaFett/Jenna as "defensive", which are much easier reads to counter-argue, concur, or begin looking for in future posts.

    Osie has been more active moving their vote around. They haven't tried to start a wagon themselves, but they have jumped on both TubbaFett and A Bear trying to make things happen. As opposed to DoTA, who has stayed locked on his counterwagon for over a week. While Osie is looking around for the best lynch, DoTA is content to sit on the most plausible alternative.

    I like the way they handled Jenna (#220 is the conclusion of that particular interaction) - gathered a large amount of evidence on a specific behavior, asked Jenna questions on it, decided it was less strong than they original thought and reduced the read strength before moving on.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    Vote: DoTArchon

    I scumread DoTArchon and townread Osie, between the two I think DoTA is definitely the correct lynch


    The shadow wagon stuff has been so heavily discussed I'm going to assume everybody has drawn their own opinion on it.

    Quote from DoTArchon »
    1) I'm not what anyone would call an experienced player. I have only played in a couple of games on this site, and only two off site. If you want to meta-dive me I'd be glad to provide a list of links to the games I've played.

    Talking about his own inexperience is scummy, because the main use case of establishing that fact about yourself is to excuse -EV Town behavior as noobiness. Notice he doesn't talk about what he's good at specifically or try to ask questions to players he considers more experienced.

    (I know in context his experience is relevant for reasons unrelated to that but that could have been established with just the first sentence.)

    He vanished for a very long time, showing little will to effect the gamestate.

    His reads in #265 are bad in meta reasons because:
    1) He promised more reads but has not yet delivered.
    2) He choose to do them only near the Day end, when Town has less time to get off him or take his reads into account, which makes them more useful as an anti-lynch shield than an attempt to solve the game before possible death.
    3) He has chosen to read players from least to greatest ISO, rather than a sensible ordering such as "starting with the players who are most likely to be lynched", which would indicate Town trying to use the lynch productively.

    Judging the post in isolation, most of them are one-liners which don't show empirical evidence:
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    Killjoy: Townreading KJ, his posts read like he's invested in solving the game.

    He doesn't give any reasons for why KJ's posts "read like he's invested". What would be the case this read wouldn't apply - if somebody was turbo-lurking or making posts tangential to the gamethread? I could see that read applying to around half the game. Also see his Colin and TubbaFett reads.

    The few times he does mention empirical it tends to be information with analysis:
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    King Torg: Scum. Voted Tau for the over-explanatory post but then unvoted without saying anything. Lolclaimed scum for some reason. Not sure what "a professional mafia player" is and how I gave them the impression I was one.

    This is a factual list of what King Torg has done. It doesn't explain why what King Torg has done is more likely to come from scum than Town.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Day 2 - Hearts on Fire]
    This Tubba Fett is also worth dissecting:
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Quote from Colin »

    Reaverb Tau;
    I still have issues with the opening, but I've been over that in a previous post so I'm not going to push this point further at this stage.
    The rest of the content has a town tone to it, and there's a few good points in his push on Tubba

    Tubba Fett:
    I don't like the asking about the expected number of mafia. It feels like a question a mafia would ask in an attempt at getting some town credit.
    Going on from that, Tubba's posts are pretty much a guide to how not to post as mafia.

    Quote from osieorb18 »

    Or if anyone can make a convincing argument for Jenna being town... But I'm currently more bothered by her than by Tubba's myriad of scumtells. So make of that what you will.

    1: Tau's push on me is incredibly flimsy, basically taking issue with my RVS vote and the timing of my Osie vote. Osie's behaviour on the Shadow wagon has been noted as scummy by more than just me, so I don't understand why the timing matters or is alignment indicative, unless it's more about protecting his buddy than finding actual scum. Look at #180, #183, and #184 just for starters.

    2: Not liking the question is one thing, but turning it into a scum read with zero interaction with me is something else. That point combined with your statement that you don't think I'm posting like mafia is somewhat troubling. Essentially you're giving me credit for hiding my alignment, based on your assumption of my alignment from a fairly innocuous question?

    3: This is a counterpoint to Colin's claim. How am I so blatantly scummy to Osie, but deceptively scummy to Colin? Actually, I don't think Osie has said why I'm scummy at all? I briefly skimmed her ISO, and short of calling me scum with the weakest of reasons in #129 and mentioning my actions as NAI in #190, Osie hasn't really made much of a case for having me as one of her top scum reads.

    4: Did I just Day One solve this *****?

    First, there's the self-conciousness again, as TubbaFett looks at a massive reads posts from Colin and picks out only the part relevant to himself.

    Second, he's using a really bizarre reading of the phrase "guide to how not to post as mafia". This is a pretty common idiom meaning "a collections of mistakes which are commonly made when [in this case: posting as mafia]". TubbaFett twisting this around to "posts mafia do not make" manages to have all the triviality of being pedantic while still being technically wrong anyway.
    Posted in: Mafia
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