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  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Catching up on the thread.

    Shadow/Voxx should still explain their scumreads on me, and their EoD behavior in general. Right now I'm thinking one or both might be scum with DoTA and intentionally used the Bear wagon to redirect away from DoTA. Particularly weird is shadow talking about how terrible the EoD chaos was when he was a major cause of it.

    If you have an outstanding question, I will mention when I've caught up so you know if I've genuinely missed it.

    Vote: Killjoy
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Osie:

    I agree their behavior on the shadow wagon was scummy, assume you've drawn your own opinions.

    First, unlike DoTA, Osie's reads have had explanations. I haven't normally agreed with them - I think #129 was nitpicky and overread into the little info available at the time - but it specifically called out posts in several places and described some fine-grained distinctions (for example, it calls Voxx "fake" vs. King Trog "posting to be a part of things". It describes shadow as "prodding" and TubbaFett/Jenna as "defensive", which are much easier reads to counter-argue, concur, or begin looking for in future posts.

    Osie has been more active moving their vote around. They haven't tried to start a wagon themselves, but they have jumped on both TubbaFett and A Bear trying to make things happen. As opposed to DoTA, who has stayed locked on his counterwagon for over a week. While Osie is looking around for the best lynch, DoTA is content to sit on the most plausible alternative.

    I like the way they handled Jenna (#220 is the conclusion of that particular interaction) - gathered a large amount of evidence on a specific behavior, asked Jenna questions on it, decided it was less strong than they original thought and reduced the read strength before moving on.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Vote: DoTArchon

    I scumread DoTArchon and townread Osie, between the two I think DoTA is definitely the correct lynch

    DoTArchon:

    The shadow wagon stuff has been so heavily discussed I'm going to assume everybody has drawn their own opinion on it.

    Quote from DoTArchon »
    1) I'm not what anyone would call an experienced player. I have only played in a couple of games on this site, and only two off site. If you want to meta-dive me I'd be glad to provide a list of links to the games I've played.

    Talking about his own inexperience is scummy, because the main use case of establishing that fact about yourself is to excuse -EV Town behavior as noobiness. Notice he doesn't talk about what he's good at specifically or try to ask questions to players he considers more experienced.

    (I know in context his experience is relevant for reasons unrelated to that but that could have been established with just the first sentence.)

    He vanished for a very long time, showing little will to effect the gamestate.

    His reads in #265 are bad in meta reasons because:
    1) He promised more reads but has not yet delivered.
    2) He choose to do them only near the Day end, when Town has less time to get off him or take his reads into account, which makes them more useful as an anti-lynch shield than an attempt to solve the game before possible death.
    3) He has chosen to read players from least to greatest ISO, rather than a sensible ordering such as "starting with the players who are most likely to be lynched", which would indicate Town trying to use the lynch productively.

    Judging the post in isolation, most of them are one-liners which don't show empirical evidence:
    Example:
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    Killjoy: Townreading KJ, his posts read like he's invested in solving the game.

    He doesn't give any reasons for why KJ's posts "read like he's invested". What would be the case this read wouldn't apply - if somebody was turbo-lurking or making posts tangential to the gamethread? I could see that read applying to around half the game. Also see his Colin and TubbaFett reads.

    The few times he does mention empirical it tends to be information with analysis:
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    King Torg: Scum. Voted Tau for the over-explanatory post but then unvoted without saying anything. Lolclaimed scum for some reason. Not sure what "a professional mafia player" is and how I gave them the impression I was one.

    This is a factual list of what King Torg has done. It doesn't explain why what King Torg has done is more likely to come from scum than Town.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    This Tubba Fett is also worth dissecting:
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Quote from Colin »


    Reaverb Tau;
    I still have issues with the opening, but I've been over that in a previous post so I'm not going to push this point further at this stage.
    The rest of the content has a town tone to it, and there's a few good points in his push on Tubba

    Tubba Fett:
    I don't like the asking about the expected number of mafia. It feels like a question a mafia would ask in an attempt at getting some town credit.
    Going on from that, Tubba's posts are pretty much a guide to how not to post as mafia.


    Quote from osieorb18 »


    Or if anyone can make a convincing argument for Jenna being town... But I'm currently more bothered by her than by Tubba's myriad of scumtells. So make of that what you will.


    1: Tau's push on me is incredibly flimsy, basically taking issue with my RVS vote and the timing of my Osie vote. Osie's behaviour on the Shadow wagon has been noted as scummy by more than just me, so I don't understand why the timing matters or is alignment indicative, unless it's more about protecting his buddy than finding actual scum. Look at #180, #183, and #184 just for starters.

    2: Not liking the question is one thing, but turning it into a scum read with zero interaction with me is something else. That point combined with your statement that you don't think I'm posting like mafia is somewhat troubling. Essentially you're giving me credit for hiding my alignment, based on your assumption of my alignment from a fairly innocuous question?

    3: This is a counterpoint to Colin's claim. How am I so blatantly scummy to Osie, but deceptively scummy to Colin? Actually, I don't think Osie has said why I'm scummy at all? I briefly skimmed her ISO, and short of calling me scum with the weakest of reasons in #129 and mentioning my actions as NAI in #190, Osie hasn't really made much of a case for having me as one of her top scum reads.

    4: Did I just Day One solve this *****?

    First, there's the self-conciousness again, as TubbaFett looks at a massive reads posts from Colin and picks out only the part relevant to himself.

    Second, he's using a really bizarre reading of the phrase "guide to how not to post as mafia". This is a pretty common idiom meaning "a collections of mistakes which are commonly made when [in this case: posting as mafia]". TubbaFett twisting this around to "posts mafia do not make" manages to have all the triviality of being pedantic while still being technically wrong anyway.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    EoD meta stuff:

    I assumed mtgs would have more placid Day ends given they have the longest non-joke Day phases I've ever seen, is scrambling in the last 12 hours still the usual here?

    I decided to ignore TubbaFett for a few days because I was a bit concerned I was tunneling when my original argument turned out to have false premise but he didn't stop feeling like scum to me. I didn't think it was possible to get a lynch going with just 3 days to deadline.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Vote Bear simply because I want it in my life.

    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Osie's quick on and off is possibly indicative of scum behaviour but that's not really a lot to go on. If Vaimes and Vox are scum together it seems ballsy to act so aligned. Jenna is very difficult to read because I flunked quantum interstitial physics.

    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    ....


    Hmmmmm...
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    But seriously, it was more of a bookmark for me to keep in mind. It doesn't make Dot look great, but it's still pretty early.
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Osie
    My Bear vote was just an RVS vote. I can't respond to ghost panda's infiltrating my kitchen, because I'm just not sure what you're asking/telling me. I'm pretty sure you're just flailing at this point.
    Vote:Osie


    This progression isn't as bad with the 2nd post correctly inserted, but it's still weird.

    The correct way to process evidence is Get Evidence -> Determine how that effects your reads -> Compile all the evidence-read-effect determinations into a reads list, lynch the person at the bottom.

    However, TubbaFett instead focuses solely on Osie's contribution to the shadow wagon, then moving on to look at DoTA after being prompted (by DoTA's post on his shadow progression in the "..."
    =============
    Self-consciousness:

    Just look over TubbaFett's ISO and you can see how much he's focused on me for starting the wagon on him:



    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    I would lynch Osie, Reverb, Colin, Jenna and Dot.
    I've mentioned my conspiracy theory regarding my top three. Jenna makes the list because while I feel like I'm on the verge of understanding what's been said, I don't feel like working that hard to figure it out. Dot is on the list despite a feeling that he's town, he's not around, he's got some scum stain, and I don't want a no-lynch.
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Quote from Colin »


    Reaverb Tau;
    I still have issues with the opening, but I've been over that in a previous post so I'm not going to push this point further at this stage.
    The rest of the content has a town tone to it, and there's a few good points in his push on Tubba

    Tubba Fett:
    I don't like the asking about the expected number of mafia. It feels like a question a mafia would ask in an attempt at getting some town credit.
    Going on from that, Tubba's posts are pretty much a guide to how not to post as mafia.


    Quote from osieorb18 »


    Or if anyone can make a convincing argument for Jenna being town... But I'm currently more bothered by her than by Tubba's myriad of scumtells. So make of that what you will.


    1: Tau's push on me is incredibly flimsy, basically taking issue with my RVS vote and the timing of my Osie vote. Osie's behaviour on the Shadow wagon has been noted as scummy by more than just me, so I don't understand why the timing matters or is alignment indicative, unless it's more about protecting his buddy than finding actual scum. Look at #180, #183, and #184 just for starters.

    2: Not liking the question is one thing, but turning it into a scum read with zero interaction with me is something else. That point combined with your statement that you don't think I'm posting like mafia is somewhat troubling. Essentially you're giving me credit for hiding my alignment, based on your assumption of my alignment from a fairly innocuous question?

    3: This is a counterpoint to Colin's claim. How am I so blatantly scummy to Osie, but deceptively scummy to Colin? Actually, I don't think Osie has said why I'm scummy at all? I briefly skimmed her ISO, and short of calling me scum with the weakest of reasons in #129 and mentioning my actions as NAI in #190, Osie hasn't really made much of a case for having me as one of her top scum reads.

    4: Did I just Day One solve this *****?
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Tau
    If Dot's reasoning on Shadow is scummy, how come Osie isn't scummy for following?
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Osie
    I'm not trying to imply you or any other ghost based animal is bad at this game. If anything, I'm bad at this game. Your vote, followed by your unvote shortly after is the scummiest behaviour I've noticed. I've no interest in personally attacking anyone, or trying to put them down. Maybe we have a communication mixup here but I'm just trying to play a game. Stop with the cryptic ghost/Claritin/Niagra Falls/panda stuff and maybe we can figure this out.

    @Tau
    I don't know what to tell you. You're really hung up on my RVS vote, and I've gotta say, I don't get it. What percentage of random votes end up being serious? When it's a vote that matters, when I'm actually making a statement about how I feel the game is going, I prefer to have more information, to take more time. When it's a throwaway random vote, not so much.
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Tau
    My bear vote was strictly RVS, there is nothing more to it.
    There hadn't been a whole lot of serious content prior to my vote on Osie. The wagon on Shadow was the most significant thing happening at the time, and (imo) odds have at least one scum on that wagon. The scummiest behaviour on that wagon was Osie's. Dot's is a close second, but following along with his crummy reason to lynch Shadow seems worse. Once King and Voxx mention how bad it is, Osie is the first to jump. That's when I felt pretty good voting that slot, but the deadline was miles away so it seemed fine to wait and see what else happened.

    Your read on my sequence is wrong. My Osie vote was never RVS, but a vote on the slot that seemed the most scummy to me.

    What do you think about Dot/Osie's play on the Shadow wagon? Was there scum on the wagon, if so, who?
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Jenna
    Yes, you did. I see it now. I don't understand it, but I see it.

    @Tau
    I waited to vote, because I like to wait to vote I guess. I like to think about where I'm putting my vote and why I want to put it there.
    Osie's vote seemed scummier to me because it came after Dot brought up Shadow's arrogance. Osie was the first one off the wagon when people started to discuss it.
    That's why I voted that slot.


    Around a third of his posts have "@Tau" somewhere in there, to the exclusion of interaction with almost anybody else. Besides Osie, who also voted him, his only other question are 1-offs to Jenna and Voxx
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    I'm going into EoD mode, if you have an outstanding question I might defer it to Start of Day 2.

    After Killjoy's last bit of activity I prefer to dedicate at least another Day phase to investigating him.

    Vote: TubbaFett is the only person I'm OK with turbo-lynching.

    I strongly prefer killing DoTA over Osie if it comes to that.
    --------------------

    shadowlynx and Voxx are both trying to doubt-cast me without giving any evidence whatsoever. If they actually have cases they should post them. (Voxx said I seemed dis-engaged which feels completely fake when I've started two wagons and felt for half the game I was being rate-limited more by the thread velocity than the time I had to post).
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Quote from Voxxicus »
    Why does KJ possibly being "wrong" about the meta read on me make him scum? Talk about where the read comes from in terms of motivation - you think the premise is correct, even, just that it doesn't make me town this game, right? I guess I'm just not really getting from point A to point B in your logic in the read.
    The read being wrong is irrelevant/nulltell. My KJ read would be exactly the same as "Besides the necroquoting Killjoy has done little besides ask/respond to questions and give a read on Voxx."

    I wanted to see his response to being told his premises are incorrect. He kept the read the same but stated his experiences with you have been different. I'm not going to dredge through old games to find out if that statement is justified, but if it is I think his read evolution there is a nulltell.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Hm. question here: If Colin is scum regardless of my alignment, why vote me instead of him?

    I think you're around 60% scum, Colin is around 50% scum given you are scum, and Colin is around 30% scum given you are not scum.

    Those % are eyeball don't hold me to them.

    Quote from Killjoy »
    I'm considering voting you for these last two posts, but its so close to deadline I feel like there is a better lynch in Osie today.
    .....

    Yeah... this reasoning+tinfoiling isn't enough reasoning to hop on the most prominant wagon 1.5 days from deadline.
    Is there more to dota, or no? Also why Bear? Why is Bear more scum than Tubba?
    Why do you think Osie needs good reasons to consolidate given that you have just stated you are not voting me because of the need to consolidate?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    DoTA has been given some really waffly defenses.

    A Bear mentioned he was scumread by everybody but got few votes #187 (although they later voted him in a place that would be a pretty hard bus unless Osie is also scum, albeit at the same time that they literally said they thought DotA's scumteam was abandoning him. #209)

    Both Vaimes #200 and Voxx #222 have called him an easy lynch, which seems like something you should pull out earlier in the Day if it's actually true, or a reason to ask him questions etc.

    I think all of those look worse if DoTA is scum, and better if DoTA is Town.

    -------------------

    Quote from Colin »

    In my experience a "reads-post" would be more indicative of scum. It gives more room for maneuverability and it's lazier. The post felt really good to me. When I read it I felt comfortable, like it's a natural post rather than a constructed one. As I've said earlier I'm an emotional player, so that's going to skew things which can be read multiple ways at times. Either way, I think the post is a good measuring stick showing Killjoy's thought process which can be used to compare future posts and interactions.
    Could you give an example of something you think Killjoy has committed to? Give an example of something Killjoy could post that you would call a walk-back. Because right now he hasn't committed to any reads except Voxx being Town, which was justified with false premises anyway.

    When players given reads posts, it's extremely clear whenever they change their reads, so other players can ask for justification. When players give impressions on specific posts, it's much harder to prove inconsistencies.

    I agree reads posts which are just lists are easier to manipulate then giving reasons without ranking players. I like reads posts like yours where every read has some justification.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Vote: Killjoy

    I think Colin's post there is scummy in isolation, regardless of Killjoy's alignment, but I think it's even more scummy if Killjoy is scum and less-scummy-but-still-bad if Killjoy is Town?

    Besides the necroquoting Killjoy has done little besides ask/respond to questions and give a wrong-meta read on Voxx.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Quote from Colin »
    Quote from Reaverb Tau »

    Could you summarize the thought process you see in #142?

    I felt the post presented someone who was going through the thread and noting anything of interest that they had a comment on. It felt natural as Killjoy seemed to not be concerned about how long ago the post was made and if it was still relevant in the current time. If he had something to say, it didn't matter that the moment had passed he wanted to say it. For me, it showed that he wanted to be involved in the game and give content on what had happened so far without it. It presents a lot of opportunities for the other players to interact with him, which would have otherwise been missed due to him not being present in the game before that. Also, he's asking questions of other players and actively seeking out those interactions.
    This is terrible.

    First sentence is "I feel like Killjoy is reading the thread, and therefore and Townreading him" ???

    Second/Third sentences are....I don't know where or how much forum mafia you've played in the past but necroquoting (neologism by me, pretty clear analogy to necroposting) is something I've seen from scum more often than Town. For the exact reasons you mentioned, it helps players look Town while being significantly less +EV Town than most other types of content. Also, a good amount of the content in #142 was the equivalent of Killjoy responding to a post with "lol".

    Fourth sentence "presents a lot of opportunities for the other players to interact with him": That would be a lot better accomplished with a reads-post, and having everybody start arguing about necroquotes tends to degrade Town conversation more than it actually helps.

    Final sentence is fine, although asking questions as scum isn't rocket science.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    @Reverb: can you explain what you meant by this:
    "shadow -
    shadow is clearly capable of faking his points if he is scum. ..... but I think if shadow he may have asked his partner(s) to do some distancing early. shadow was never in any actual danger of dying."

    It feels like you know who I am.
    I skimmed a couple of the older games here (including Silence of the Lambs, where you won as scum) and multiple players have said you're good at scum in-tread. It's enough to figure out I shouldn't trust "weak" towntells that decent scum can easily fake.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    So it turns out I made a mistake when reading TubbaFett

    Quote from Reaverb Tau »
    Sorry for my absence, I'll be more around in the future.
    Vote: Tubba Fett

    This sequence is horrible:
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Vote Bear simply because I want it in my life.

    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    ....


    Hmmmmm...
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    But seriously, it was more of a bookmark for me to keep in mind. It doesn't make Dot look great, but it's still pretty early.
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Osie
    My Bear vote was just an RVS vote. I can't respond to ghost panda's infiltrating my kitchen, because I'm just not sure what you're asking/telling me. I'm pretty sure you're just flailing at this point.
    Vote:Osie




    Basically: He has an RVS vote, notes something scummy on DotArchon, then votes what's basically another RVS vote instead of moving to DotArchon.

    Particularly since "flailing" doesn't accurately describe Osie, they have several clear opinions once you read though there bizarre post restrictions.

    This doesn't effect my read on DotArchon because it could be either setting up for a potential bus or trying to push a mislynch without getting on.


    I missed this post between the 1st and 2nd TubbaFett post I quoted here:
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    Osie's quick on and off is possibly indicative of scum behaviour but that's not really a lot to go on. If Vaimes and Vox are scum together it seems ballsy to act so aligned. Jenna is very difficult to read because I flunked quantum interstitial physics.

    It's weird he didn't vote Osie in ^ post but less weird than voting Osie just for "flailing" when they had done the exact same scumtell as DoTA.

    (This is also my response to @Osie's question about what I cared about in TubbaFett's progression on them, which triggered me noticing this)

    ---------------

    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Tau
    If Dot's reasoning on Shadow is scummy, how come Osie isn't scummy for following?
    That is a scumtell for Osie. I think Osie has towntell'd in some with other things while DoTA hasn't.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on It Was a Dark and Stormy Night; [Game Over - Mafia Victory!]
    Quote from Killjoy »
    @Killjoy I've played a couple dozen games I think? I've never actually counted.

    Why do you think that one post is enough to read Vox? Is it some sort of meta read?

    What was your criteria for picking the particular posts you did to respond to on your catch-up?

    Re: Voxx: It's... kind of a meta read, I guess? I mean it's not so much something I have personally observed and found for myself through experience, but more through repuation. What I know about Voxx is: he HATES being mafia, because there's no puzzle to solve. Nothing he likes to do can happen when he's mafia. It's just so boring.
    It was actually two posts that put me at that conclusion. The initial vote on Shadow (Wagons!) was one, combined with the quoted post led me to see a mindset where A)he is having fun and B)is trying to solve the puzzle only available as town.

    Re: criteria: My process is basically read the thread, then when I have a question or relevent thought I quote and post. Some long posts I skim becuase those just become quotewalls (which I don't usually wanna deal with right then) so I don't usually do anything with them.

    Quote from Reaverb Tau »
    The idea of you participating in RVS at all is weird if you really love waiting to vote as much as you claim.

    I think DotA is the most likely scum on the wagon right now.
    Hm. Explain your thinking here.

    Your Voxx conclusions are totally off. Your premises aren't wrong, but despite claiming to strongly dislike scum he's historically been very good at it. A couple years back I recall him claiming to never had been lynched as scum without a mechanical guilty across dozens of scum games.

    Tubba has state they like waiting to vote as Town, which implies they do not agree with the normal evaluation Town should change their vote quite often, and having a vote down is always correct. However, he still participates in RVS, which is just this evaluation pushed to extreme due to extreme lack of info at the beginning of the game. This is inconsistent.

    @A Bear Torg was/is in the "needs to post more nulls"



    Posted in: Mafia
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