Aaaaaaaaaand I have work now.
I did whaT I could. I feel like the conclusions you came to are what I would be trying to prove anyway. I'm off at midnight btw so I can't be back before deadline.
Think the wolves plan this game is to discredit or mislunch one or both of us, and that is why I am suspicious of DV
This is still giving me the heebie jeebies. I'm town reading Wisp to some degree, and Proph knowing Cross was Osie makes it make a bit more sense, but where is the suspicion on me? I literally made a case on both Proph and Osie with the qualifier that both can't be scum together. Weird stuff.
tl;dr - I just don't see the maliciousness. Osie was super over the top and hyperactive, but I think he has constant foot-in-mouth syndrome like me, and that was even more amplified because he chose to intentionally emulate my posting style. I feel like if he randed scum this game, he would have been a lot more reserved and play more by-the-book rather than ruffle people's feathers early.
It's too long to quote but Proph's giant wall explaining his Osie read doesn't really work for me and the TLDR doesn't really summarize the majority of his post.
The body mostly talks about his own mindset in interacting with Osie and barely mentions reasons for actively town reading him. The first 3 paragraphs end with a negative view! And they are the most in depth. After that Proph just mostly points to his older posts as explanations for his reads and uses the line about missing maliciousness.
The big problem I have with this post is that he's presenting it as a long promised explanation about his Osie read but he doesn't really do that. It's a sublte difference but it's more a justification for his read than it is a read of Osie.
This line in particular sticks out to me: "I keep interacting with Osie and I am using him sort of a sounding board to re-evaluate my own reads, like the one scumread I had on Wisp at the time:"
That does nothing to explain why he thought Osie was town but it does justify Proph's actions. This isn't someone trying to enlighten the game, it's someone trying to protect themselves from blowback. The TLDR provides a postitive case for Osie but it's also a weak case that doesn't really justify the strength proph was posting with or the repeated delays in explaining it. Activity, TWTBAW, and roleplay isn't this indepth case that is hard to explain. This definitely feels like covering tracks and retroactive justification more than it feels like a natural town case.
Vote: Proph
The parts of this post about you are obviously wrong, and I don't think he arrived at this post naturally.
Reading Crossbell now and it's so many posts. My eyes just want to glaze over it. I have become a dinosaur.
Anyway I still have my same feelings about Crossbell's entrance. If I'm being generous some of the jaggedness could be coming from the roleplay, but it's spikey.
And the rainbow wall is still just rubbing me the wrong way. Like the read on me for example chooses to harp on the second vote when it seems obvious my vote was determined before the game by the cards. But then there does seem to be a reasonable thought process on reacting to my posts. Interestingly though is that it's very staccato. Could be a playstyle thing but each point about my posts is disconnected from the last. For example mentions my question to Wisp looks like busy work but then likes my explanation in #66 with some reservations. Or the emphasis on 69 being unexplained and abrupt before sort of liking my 73 where it's explained. It feels performative but I am not sure if I'm mistaking different style for scummy. To me it feels like busywork because I'd never do an ISO that way and I'd weave back to the earlier posts in my analysis and how the subsequent posts change my opinions of them. The only reason I might is if I was scum just trying to get something to stick to the wall and was writing up every post without thinking about it.
The words on DV have the same sort of staccato element to a lesser degree. But in fairness the read on Wisp is much more fluid.
So the whole thing just feels off to me just on a process level and that's before I get to the reads that just make me squint like the Axel suspicion, Dota getting scum leaned, and the content of the Wisp read which stands out in how hedgey it is compared to everything else.
The spamming with Wisp definitely does feel like an attempt to solve him. Like he clearly knows Wisp and irking Wisp and spamming with him is usually a reliable way to sort him so that's a town indication.
If Crossbell is Osie as people have speculated (I don't want to know the mystery is fun and I am truly awful at guessing Alts going 0'fer in the DLP/MU thing game) then the reads wall is much less of a red flag. 133. Well the reads part of it. I'd have to do a meta dive on Osie to see if the staccato part translates but I'm not going to do a meta dive based upon speculation that I don't really have an opinion on.
The Axel Meta analysis doesn't give me great vibes. It's very arbitrary with the 100 post cut off and fact that in particular 80s feelgood was similarly joking. I get that it was about the switch flipping to serious but it doesn't go into the context of the game at all. The comparison to Feel Good 80s in particular is pinging me. That game was so comparably jokey that I think it completely undermines their point. And I think Crossbell knows it too throwing my quote in at the end talking about how the joking is a character break. Definitely agenda vibes here.
The team sort in 155 is just incomprehensible to me. I have no clue how any Cantrip teams were eliminated at that point. Cantrip had 1 post at that point. 1.
I think this might be confirmation bias because I've been scum reading Cross through this ISO but the friendly meme'ing with Proph and DV feels like if not a pocket attempt and attempt to get in their good graces.
198 is sort of what I mean. It's a kind of pointless post other than to agree with Proph. He doesn't really use that distinction to push Wisp or Axel. He's pushing Axel but that is never really his point.
The pivot to Dota has a whiff of OMGUS to it. Not in the traditional sense of a knee jerk reaction but in a wanting to build a wagon over the vote. The move off Axel and onto Dota just feels off to me. I can't point to any specific post but the way they beg DV to go with them and then follow Proph instead after DV votes with Cross is just more of the appeasement I was getting at.
ISO done.
So major thoughts are the intial tone felt off but that improved throughout the game. Probably was mostly early Roleplay missing for me. The readswall and team sort are agenda'y red flags to me. As is the intial Axel push. Then the buddying up to Proph and DV just doesn't feel like town core building to me (given the different handling of Wisp for example).
Vote on Crossbell sticking and increasing in intensity.
I made the point earlier that this post felt off. It's trying to nail Osie to the wall, and doesn't seem a fair analysis of his play. It's full of agenda.
The meta read is actually playing a lot stronger here than I think I realized. Each subsequent post makes me feel like it's more likely who I think it is, and I'm freaking loving it. (Spoiler: I'm probably completely wrong, because I'm almost always wrong on these things, but something something blind squirrel...) I'm also happy with the volume of output. Again, not necessarily town on its own, but in combination with everything, feels indicative to me. The Axel read still doesn't meld with me (nor the DoTa one, tbf), but the meta dive at least lets me see where Cross is coming from.
@Proph I hrrmmmmmm'ed at Cantrip's post because of him saying meta was a big part of his read. Felt very weird to claim a meta read on a suspected identity. Then he gave a bunch of hedging before sticking with the read. Had the potential of TMI.
The second potential important post here, with expanation. He never pursues this read at all.
@Dota Welcome to the right side of history. Can you talk about the KJ distancing read though. I'm really confused what you think the significance of it is. KJ is more likely to be town because he pointed out an interaction could be distancing? Are you an MTG player? Because Axel is right that Time Walk and Ancestral really do massively overshadow Timetwister to a massive degree. So if anything I'd put KJ making a point of it more likely to KJ trying to generate an interaction than anything to do with Axel. Now I'm not going to scum read him over it because that would be ridiculous, but I think I'd put it as a tiny unaligned between KJ and Axel if KJ were to flip scum. Think it's entirely meaningless from Axel's side though. His flip would mean nothing towards KJs.
I'm a little biased here but Grape is obviously attempting to weaken DotA's town read on me here by saying the reason he was townreading me was trying to create an interaction between myself and Axel. First of all I am an MTG player but I don't play power, so if there's an obvious Timetwister blacksheeping there I'm not aware of it, but that's subjective. The bolded I kind of have a problem with as well because why would he mention that given the rest of his post there about me and Axel.
Condensing my posts on Grape from Yesterday, basically he has bad interactions with Eco.
I feel like I probably don't need to show you more Grape things to show you scum!Grape. Maybe I'll look at Eco to see if I can show partners that way.
If possible I'd like behavioral evidence that points to Grape being scum. He has a couple of things going for him that I am still not sure if I can overlook.
You said you thought DV was scum in 475, and you said that you hated his post where he voted me in 493. But in post 629/633 you no longer think he's scum. What changed during that timeframe? Like what posts from DV's make you think he was being genuinely emotional and not malicious.
(Also wow are these post links screwed up)
You tried to remove me from the PoE completely but you said this earlier. Why did you contradict your process?
I'm not seeing why you think I should see you as e facto town and why Axel should be completely eliminated from the PoE. I never fully eliminate people from the PoE unless there's mechanics involved because nonmechanical stuff is highly subjective.
As for your summary: Yes, I think I've given you a lot of room to maneuver as either alignment. I'm trying to figure out if continuing to give you room will win us the game or I'll just be MEGA POCKETED by you or something.
Also would love to see Grape show up sometime in the next 24 hours or so.
The reason I hated DV's postings was because I took the insane amount of aggression as malice. I eventually reevaluated and decided it might not have been malice and instead been just... getting into the game emotionally. I think it was just it went on long enough to be less likely a tactic and more likely real.
I elininated you because there was enough pointing to town you and its near enough to the end of the game to where eliminations are needed.
Also you really can't take that too literally to mean I will NEVER eliminate anyone nonmechanically because obviously we will evenutally get to a point where there's maybe no mechanics eliminating people and we have 5 people left. Sometimes you gotta make that leap of faith and hope you're right.
This is a post near the end of D1. I think all the voters on Grape are town, and interestingly all of the scum in this case would be on Proph (which continues to make him town if that's the case). Also all of the unknowns are between Proph and Grape, which makes them less likely a team.
Dota had a few town pings in tone but not enough that I really got there on him. Definitely liked his version of the KJ special where he just did his own thing and chased it down.
Given all the remaining players
tell me in one word, if you think they are a wolf or town, without saying anything else. I don't want an explanation, you can leave that for another post. I just want, town or wolf, mafia or villager, and no nulls.
Proph: wolf
DoTA: wolf
Cantrip: wolf
Wisp: Town
Axelrod: town
KJ: Wolf
Have everyone but Wisp and Axel at slightly above random to be a wolf.
Grape: Explain this progression. Why the wolf on Cantrip when you've barely mentioned him all game up to this point? You've at least mentioned me and things I've done at that point as if you're trying to evauluate me, but you never really said much about Cantrip.
Reading Axel's wall on me and it has reminded me that I need to go reread the end of day. Definitely joining the chorus that the change in opinion on me through the wall just feels incredibly natural. Especially since given my lack of cache Axel could just try to bury me here with little chance of blowback. If he was scum he is A in great position and B definitely does not need to defend me there. Doesn't even feel like he was trying to leave himself a back door to come back to me tomorrow while putting me on the backburner to focus on Dota or Eco toDay.
Need to dive into Eco's entrance a bit deeper but I am trying to figure out the repeated interactions with Proph. The repeated invocation of playing devil's advocate just is pinging me. Proph is in the position of power here and I'm not sure why he's putting the WIFOM out there on his handling of Wisp and Eco's reaction to it. Feels overly defensive while still trying to maintain distance from his actions. Why is proph spilling wine about his own theoretical scum motivations here. Rather than just the more assertive tone he was using at EoD and garnering town reads from DV for, just feels wrong to me.
Okay. I guess I can buy this? Just to play devil's advocate a little more, I'm not sure that I would leave Wisp on the mislunch table as scum given that I had quite a fair bit of pushback in the early game when I called him scum. I think I was the only player to actively scumread him at that stage. But fair, I can buy this line of reasoning.
This is Grape's first real interaction with the slot in a while... and it's about how Proph is scummy?
Proph I need your help here on LW. During my reread I was nodding along with your early mafia-read of him - I thought he was overly defensive, inconsistent, trying pretty hard to seem relaxed/detached, and spent a lot of time agreeing and voting with you despite reading you as mafia. I picked out #230 as a broad "let's look at the low posters" very soon after you cased him in #181. Even in D2 while there's been more engagement he's been holding back waiting for results of this "game" which I'm very unimpressed by because needing to wait for everyone to answer is a great way to stall out when you have lurkers.
But, Proph, you've switched your read to pretty much ride or die town and I need you to help me because I don't get it. I get that you read him from a town mindset and it fit, and I can see some positives like it sounds like he's talking without a filter, and I think that his voting would be less erratic (or at least more tactical) if he was mafia. But I also feel like his votes have been pretty safe and he's tried quite hard to make sure we all know he's having trouble nailing down reads. So, uh, help please?
I have a few qusetions about this Eco, first why did you specifically ask Proph for help reading Wisp? Just because of the fact that he changed his read? I get that you ask a couple questions to him here but it feels like you could ask anyone town reading Wisp. Second what is your actual read? Do you think it's Wisp/Dota? Or are you just not convinced on him one way or another yet?
Here's the next interaction... gonna leave this here and evaluate it all at the same time I suppose.
Axel is never under pressure today. His ISO's have been pretty agendaless and have shown a sort of progression. It's lacking the curiosity that would lock the read in to ride or die but it's at the place where I wouldn't reevaluate him before a F3.
Wisp is just a bit below this for me. He's been mostly himself bouncing around and inconsistent with reads. The only time where there was any whiff of an agenda was at the EoD1 but that's gone again D2 and I'm currently happy to slot him into town.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
KJ
Prophylaxis
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
Proph just keeps coming back to scum for me. There just is an undercurrent of agenda to a lot of what he's doing. The Osie clear and urging to reveal the identity. The utterly bizarre in retrospect scum read and reversal on DV. The super eager to kill me to being more or less fine with me on D2. The complete focus on Dota before the last couple of hours. Just feels like he's pushing the game where he wants it to be rather than following what he's reading.
As a result I don't want Dota to die. Proph is absolutely trying to get him killed. He is clearly the dedicated condemn today and we should not kill him. He's been an absolute wet noodle but he's not scum with Proph and Proph is scum here.
That leaves Eco and KJ. Going to sort them. Eco has made a good inital impression on me but not enough to really get anywhere yet. KJ deciding to try and push Wisp in his 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf theory is definitely standing out to me right about now.
Grapefruit21
Axelrod
LastWhisper
DOTArchon
Ecophagy
KJ
Prophylaxis
Vote: Proph
@Grape: Explain your sorting of Eco at this point please? You've had a short conversation with him at this point, as I've noted. What left a good impression? Why is he so low otherwise?
Eco's walls on Proph and me are fine. I just don't have the time to dig into them right now but like I can't point to any massive red flags at a glance. And his little back and forth with Wisp about my EoD1 feels natural-ish, but like he kind of has to be scum here I think. I'll try to get back into this a bit more in depth but today is a bit busy and with Proph now looking like he might actually be town the game kind of feels easy. Wisp is never scum so if Proph is legit then it's solved.
So, Grape's had Eco/Cantrip basically very low in his reads, but never really evaluating him, but despite being low in his reads also never suspecting him. All of his reads are colored by interactions with Proph (who is now cleared town) and are not evaluated on their own merits, but I don't think he gives the same treatment to Canrtip/Eco in that regard.
Condensing my posts on Grape from Yesterday, basically he has bad interactions with Eco.
I feel like I probably don't need to show you more Grape things to show you scum!Grape. Maybe I'll look at Eco to see if I can show partners that way.
Ok so first few posts of mine were not important. RVS and complaining about Curse. This is followed by some serious evaluatory questions to DV and DotA in 150 and 267 respectively, then a somewhat jokey question to Wisp about entrances in 309.
Then comes the post where I ask Cross to consider whther or not the second vote on an RVS wagon is relevent.
For jumping a second vote on a town player before that player entered the thread.
On a scale of RVS to Final 3 how serious is this vote?
Firmly RVS.
Actually, have you considered it seriously? This game size is 3/4 of the usual size. From a theory standpoint, is the second vote on a hypothetical town player in RVS actually be more significant than not?
It might actually be.
This was based on the fact that in a 12 player game, the third vote on an RVS wagon is sometimes relevent, and I was postulating whether the second would be similarly relevent in this game size.
331 is where I decide you are town for how you're playing. In the post I asked you if you were feeling rusty because your questions felt, I guess disconnected? Like you were obviously trying to figure out the game but you were just kind of questioning everything in order to find SOMETHING relevent. I think that's why I used to do it anyway, which I noted that it reminded me of me.
475 was a slightly lazy reads list which scumreads Wisp and DV, saying that :The two people I think currently are scum are DV and Wisp. DV has aggressively jumped on at least Proph for minutia and has also been hedgy in a bad way. Wisp I specifically think is scum for his progression on me. He keeps maintaining (353, 417, 432) that I've been really null. I feel like it's not just an opinion of his, he's trying to convince others of it, possibly to counteract the townleans people seem to have developed on me. He's not scumreading me as of now, so why is he pushing so hard that other's should not be townreading me? I think he knows I'm town and misyeetable so he's trying to preserve that."
516 is me trying to explain why I dislike Wisp's "extremely null" designation. The crux of that argument was basically I felt like people were tentitively townreading me and Wisp was trying to push a new narritive about me just being really null and not town. I did this with a longwinded paragraph about your Wisp bodypillow et al. You may remember it.
It's been said that 522 was a natural thought by me. It was, but I'm biased. The reason I posted this was obviously because I'm usually garbage at catching scum/commiting to the read.
523/524 was a response to Wisp asking my to ISO Cross, like I said.
I'm actually not sure what post of yours I was referring to in 627. I looked and couldn't find one that immediately made sense
In 629 I was softening on my scumread of DV, thinking maybe his aggression wasn't malicious, but he was just overly (and more importantly, genuinely) emotional. Also not in an agenda driven way, which malicious implies.
I end up voting GJ because I had thought Cross was scum, and GJ didn't really improve my read on the slot.
Short convo with Wisp, followed by an attempt to get into the game by ISOing Cantrip. I conclude he's likely scum.
In 485 I had some questions for DotA but one of them was nonsensical since I misread a post and based a question off of that.
941 is just... 100% wrong. It's actually kind of embarassing. I even discount Grape for having too many scumreads. And the gameflow thing was just... misguided to say the least.This is followed by Wisp and Grape questioning me on it. Wisp calls it BS and questions my reads, Grape asks what I would look for in a game dominated by scum.
Side note: now that Wisp is dead he is probably 100% cursing me in the spec chat now that he knows I was town the whole time.
956 is when I start thinking Wisp might be town again because during our discussion his response to me was townie.
in 977, Eco pokes me for not following through on my VCA, which I was reconsidering due to game size. He also accused me of backing down from a fight with Wisp, which wasn't true.
In response to Wisp's game: "I guess Proph wolf, wisp town, grape town, axel town, dota town eco scum." which was primarily based on recent reads and my high/low read which was wrong.
1063 is where I try to explain to YOU about high/low. I eliminate most other worlds here as well. Slightly later I explain why I landed on you/Eco as the team.
I appretntly never officially said why I disliked DotA. I just kinda voted him at the end of the day. The reason was just "I read his ISO and wasn't impressed". I think I said that before though?
Then is a conversation with Wisp where I was getting annoyed with him. I'm sure you remember it.
I attempt to towncase you in 1306 because eliminating you from the PoE would help solve the game significantly
Then I make some posts trying to show Grape is scum...
Aaaaaand that's everything that I've really done.
So, a summary!: I think you would think I'm town because I don't have a scum agenda. I have been very disconnected with this game due to time constraints, but I feel like the posts I do make aren't helping the scum team. I believe you could see where I'm coming from for the most part. There's also something to be said (as you pointed out) that Eco was trying to dunk me for a lot of Yesterday, and you would be correct to think that he's not doing that as a Hail Mary trying to win. A part of my case would also be that I've made some posts that Grape is scum with Eco.
I did whaT I could. I feel like the conclusions you came to are what I would be trying to prove anyway. I'm off at midnight btw so I can't be back before deadline.
Good luck.
I elininated you because there was enough pointing to town you and its near enough to the end of the game to where eliminations are needed.
Also you really can't take that too literally to mean I will NEVER eliminate anyone nonmechanically because obviously we will evenutally get to a point where there's maybe no mechanics eliminating people and we have 5 people left. Sometimes you gotta make that leap of faith and hope you're right.
I feel like I probably don't need to show you more Grape things to show you scum!Grape. Maybe I'll look at Eco to see if I can show partners that way.
Hey I'm doing stuff.
Then comes the post where I ask Cross to consider whther or not the second vote on an RVS wagon is relevent.This was based on the fact that in a 12 player game, the third vote on an RVS wagon is sometimes relevent, and I was postulating whether the second would be similarly relevent in this game size.
331 is where I decide you are town for how you're playing. In the post I asked you if you were feeling rusty because your questions felt, I guess disconnected? Like you were obviously trying to figure out the game but you were just kind of questioning everything in order to find SOMETHING relevent. I think that's why I used to do it anyway, which I noted that it reminded me of me.
475 was a slightly lazy reads list which scumreads Wisp and DV, saying that :The two people I think currently are scum are DV and Wisp. DV has aggressively jumped on at least Proph for minutia and has also been hedgy in a bad way. Wisp I specifically think is scum for his progression on me. He keeps maintaining (353, 417, 432) that I've been really null. I feel like it's not just an opinion of his, he's trying to convince others of it, possibly to counteract the townleans people seem to have developed on me. He's not scumreading me as of now, so why is he pushing so hard that other's should not be townreading me? I think he knows I'm town and misyeetable so he's trying to preserve that."
516 is me trying to explain why I dislike Wisp's "extremely null" designation. The crux of that argument was basically I felt like people were tentitively townreading me and Wisp was trying to push a new narritive about me just being really null and not town. I did this with a longwinded paragraph about your Wisp bodypillow et al. You may remember it.
It's been said that 522 was a natural thought by me. It was, but I'm biased. The reason I posted this was obviously because I'm usually garbage at catching scum/commiting to the read.
523/524 was a response to Wisp asking my to ISO Cross, like I said.
I'm actually not sure what post of yours I was referring to in 627. I looked and couldn't find one that immediately made sense
In 629 I was softening on my scumread of DV, thinking maybe his aggression wasn't malicious, but he was just overly (and more importantly, genuinely) emotional. Also not in an agenda driven way, which malicious implies.
I end up voting GJ because I had thought Cross was scum, and GJ didn't really improve my read on the slot.
Short convo with Wisp, followed by an attempt to get into the game by ISOing Cantrip. I conclude he's likely scum.
In 485 I had some questions for DotA but one of them was nonsensical since I misread a post and based a question off of that.
941 is just... 100% wrong. It's actually kind of embarassing. I even discount Grape for having too many scumreads. And the gameflow thing was just... misguided to say the least.This is followed by Wisp and Grape questioning me on it. Wisp calls it BS and questions my reads, Grape asks what I would look for in a game dominated by scum.
Side note: now that Wisp is dead he is probably 100% cursing me in the spec chat now that he knows I was town the whole time.
956 is when I start thinking Wisp might be town again because during our discussion his response to me was townie.
in 977, Eco pokes me for not following through on my VCA, which I was reconsidering due to game size. He also accused me of backing down from a fight with Wisp, which wasn't true.
In response to Wisp's game: "I guess Proph wolf, wisp town, grape town, axel town, dota town eco scum." which was primarily based on recent reads and my high/low read which was wrong.
1063 is where I try to explain to YOU about high/low. I eliminate most other worlds here as well. Slightly later I explain why I landed on you/Eco as the team.
I appretntly never officially said why I disliked DotA. I just kinda voted him at the end of the day. The reason was just "I read his ISO and wasn't impressed". I think I said that before though?
Then is a conversation with Wisp where I was getting annoyed with him. I'm sure you remember it.
I attempt to towncase you in 1306 because eliminating you from the PoE would help solve the game significantly
Then I make some posts trying to show Grape is scum...
Aaaaaand that's everything that I've really done.
So, a summary!: I think you would think I'm town because I don't have a scum agenda. I have been very disconnected with this game due to time constraints, but I feel like the posts I do make aren't helping the scum team. I believe you could see where I'm coming from for the most part. There's also something to be said (as you pointed out) that Eco was trying to dunk me for a lot of Yesterday, and you would be correct to think that he's not doing that as a Hail Mary trying to win. A part of my case would also be that I've made some posts that Grape is scum with Eco.