MTG Salvation

LW Meta-dive

Starting with the mafia game on Throne of Lies, the playstyle was pretty clear. LW's posts were really short (one-whole-sentence-at-best short). He made reads (some town, some mafia) but they were kind of just thrown out there with viurtually no reasoning. He voted very rarely (but did want a lot of votecounts), and when he did he made it seem like he was being forced to by others not voting correctly (possibly at deadlines? Game context is really hard to get on that site) rather than proactively. He made two big posts (3937 and 3941) which were both quote walls defending himself from attack - his tone in them was very relaxed and using rhetorical questions in defence rather than seeking conflict.

So that game makes for a pretty obvious scum meta right? Short sharp posts, hard reads with no reasons, rare and reluctant voting. Big posts in self-defence, but no real interest in conflict.

Compared to Ballade des Dames du Temps Jadis and the difference is pretty stark. The posts are on average much longer and give a lot more insight into Wisp's thoughts - a lot more reasons and worldbuilding. No all that much voting, but the usage was more proactive. He also didn't get attacked that much, but when he did (by Gorta) he was much more confrontational and counter voted (it must be noted, incorrectly).

Coming then to this game, and LW's play is clearly much more like his town play. His posts are pretty meaty, he's got real reads, voting proactively, and he's leaning in to confrontation when challenged. In fact, I would say pretty much all of these traits are more amplified here - he's voting more, responding more aggressively to being suspected, thinking more about his reads out loud. If I squint, I can see scum!LW being aware of what his town meta is and really pushing to emulate it and ending up going over the top. But if that is truly the case then he's somehow able to play his town meta by removing even more of a filter and posting rawer thoughts and being more confrontational, which is basically the hardest thing for someone to do as scum, especially if their natural scum meta is to clam up.

Ultimately I get a lot more of what Proph was talking about now - scum LW would find it very difficult to be posting as much content about his internal process as he has been, even if I disagree with the conclusions or other actions. I think there's still someone to be gained by trying to look at the underlying mindset behind some of the reads (in particular contradictions or convenient/tactical reads) in case LW is somehow overcompensating their town act. But that probably requires some more flips, and the meta argument is definitely convincing enough that I don't see the need to dig deeper unless I actually have to.

Quote from Lastwhisper »

Both you and killjoy with your jabs can be seen as shade since you aren't putting almost any words behind your wolf reads. That is one of the strongest reasons to hate both of you

If you don't think I put words behind my reads you have another thing coming boyo.

Quote from Lastwhisper »

Also plz inform the class to the "lots of things I did" that are wolfie. Idk how after all these posts, I still even find one thing I like from you. Even dota has at least one post I like from him. I think Cantrips overlap posts early on didn't give wolfy vibes, but that went completely out the window when other people started entering the PoE with their continued presence

I did mention some in #891, but to repeat myself: I think your early game was defensive and you've made sure we know how relaxed you are. You've spent the whole game very vocally being unsure of Proph's alignment but have voted alongside/agreed with him pretty consistently. #230 you tried to focus the game on "low poster" just after Proph cased you. Holding out for this "game" has been a great stalling tactic. This recent overreaction to KJ calling you possible scum was really scummy, and now you're dumping on me for the same reason.

There have been town things as well and maybe this is just meta or something which is why I'm asking Proph and why I'm going to slog through the games he linked this evening. But you can't act like you're some paragon of town behaviour and shoot your vote at anyone who looks at you funny and expect no reaction.

OK so we broadly feel the same way that KJ is kind of disconnected but doing his own thing is not actively wolfy for him. I wouldn't call it a slap in the face, but I would absolutely like more support of the world view he's pulled out of thin air. Also I did mean KJ backing down was scummy - I definitely don't like him floating this holistic system to avoid the current thread and bailing on it as soon as it get flak.

@KJ are you ever going to do your end of D1 VCA?

Quote from Grapefruit21 »

I have a few qusetions about this Eco, first why did you specifically ask Proph for help reading Wisp? Just because of the fact that he changed his read? I get that you ask a couple questions to him here but it feels like you could ask anyone town reading Wisp. Second what is your actual read? Do you think it's Wisp/Dota? Or are you just not convinced on him one way or another yet?

I asked Proph because he has a very strong read that caused a total change in heart, so he's the one I want to explain what I can't see. Who else is actually hard townreading Wisp? My actual read on Wisp is that he's done a lot of things I don't like (even just now #942/3 is such a huge overreaction to being called possible scum), but my top-town-guy Proph is absolutely convinced Wisp is town with meta reasons which justify a lot of Wisp's actions.

Speaking of KJ, I want to give #941 town points for looking at the game holistically and ending up with some...unusual reads. But the logic is really flimsy (as Grape has already pointed out) and it's missing the possible scenario that the mafia are all in the PoE and can't post enough to get out. Probably because the most likely team in that case is DoTA and KJ. So if KJ really believes that the game state means there's mafia in Proph/LW/Axelrod then I would really like to see some research to work out which one rather than picking softest option LW out of a hat. An option that KJ is immediately backing down from in the face of conflict.

Quote from Axelrod »

I do not remember exactly what the last game was, but I believe it was 5-6 years ago at this point. And I also seem to recall it didn’t go especially well. I could probably figure it out scrolling back.

If you would be so kind. Offsite is OK too if that was more recent.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

Okay. I guess I can buy this? Just to play devil's advocate a little more, I'm not sure that I would leave Wisp on the mislunch table as scum given that I had quite a fair bit of pushback in the early game when I called him scum. I think I was the only player to actively scumread him at that stage. But fair, I can buy this line of reasoning.

The discrepancy presumably comes from Cantrip making that post in context, whereas I have the benefit of having more data points. I don't know if I'd have read it as towny as I am if I'd been in the game at the time.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

I think Axel mentioned Osie geting ranked over the coals for doing that early reads-list, not Grape, unless I'm misremembering?

Both Axel and Grape used the phrase in #206 and #225 respectively.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

I just got done wolfing with Wisp in a game from ~two months ago and his scum game was notably weaker than his town game. If you want scum meta on him and me, knock yourself out. (I recommend clicking his name and ISOing him that way rather than remotely slog through the forum software over there)

Here's another recent town game of his I was using as cross-comparison. I'll also try to put into words why I think he's town sometime soon.

Thanks, I will have a look.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

I like Eco's observation of Axel in 916, but I think that if Axel is operating with limited time then he is making by far the best use of it by doing these rereads. I think they're way more enlightening in terms of figuring out his alignment than if he were to do something else. Plus, I'd take hard player/game PBPAs than real-time all day (I also can't imagine Axel realtiming unless he's really engaged or has a surplus of time on his hands; don't think he's that type of player).

I totally agree Axel is Goodposting. I'm just paranoid that Goodposting is what mafia-Axelrod would be trying to do as well, so I want to test the hypothesis starting with some meta. He definitely shouldn't stop.

Acutally @Axel: When was the last time you were mafia? I fear the meta I have from when we were scumbuddies in 2009 might be a bit outdated...

Also I agree with Proph that Axel starting the Grape post looking negative from Grape but ultimately coming to a positive conclusion is a Good Look for Axel. I am slightly nervous that Axel is doing re-reads rather than engaging with the thread, as it's allowing him to do control his own narrative as it were. But it's not like there's very much actually happening in thread to engage with, and there is a lot of content on Axel to analyse. I do have some things I'm looking for on how Axel spends the rest of the Day, and I can explain them later.

Quote from Axelrod »

There is no actual way I am ever wading through all of Proph and Last's posts before Thursday. Grape was a bear, and they have like 10x more post between them.

I am wondering if I have to, though, as - unless it is exactly Proph/Last and they are actually post-counting us to death - it is only 1 there at worst, and that still leaves 1 Mafia and I think I would be pretty comfortable with voting Cantrip down at the bottom right now. (Sorry Eco.)

Maybe DoTA, but it would have to be based on D2 stuff I haven't reviewed yet, not the D1 comparisons.

Boo Axel. You know you can trust me!

Quote from Prophylaxis »

Just to play devil's advocate here a bit: Is there a reason why you're interpreting my reads-reversal on Wisp in a more charitable way than your predecessor?

I can see Cantrip's point, but I did allude to why I disagree - I think if you had (as mafia) decided LW wasn't a viable execute you wouldn't switch over to a hard town read, you'd just shelve it with a "OK he's not the best but he still could be scum" to keep the option open. Even now you're telling Axel to just accept town LW, if you were mafia looking for a LW execute letting Axel have a run at LW would be great. I'm struggling to agree with the strength of your LW read, but I buy that you believe it.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

Grape also was an early vote and advocate for more pressure on the Osie slot, and he very specifically made a read that me and Osie were unaligned. He also stopped tunnelling Osie after he revealed his identity (and started tunnelling me). Do you have any thoughts on that, and what that means for his alignment?

I actually agreed that Osie's early read wall was a big red flag and I'd have pushed him for it if I'd been in the game. It is reasonable on the surface to retract to Osie read on reveal because the read wall a core component but Grape mentioned seeing Osie get "raked over the coals" for making one in another game. Grape did promise a reevaluation when he unvoted but it doesn't look like he ever did which is at best lazy. Moving over to his next scum read (you) is at least consistent.

I think it's slightly +town. The full reevalaution would have been much more so since without it the unvote could be tactical, but Grape had enough of a case in #290 that he could have easily stuck to his Osie vote as mafia if he'd wanted. Similarly the vote on Proph came at a time where both KJ and DoTA were softer wagons - I don't see why he would as mafia pick a fight with someone who agrees with him that Osie/GJ is not-mafia.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

This read is kind of hard to unpack for me because it's based a lot on my own experience and meta with Wisp, but it boils down to this. His attempts at solving and working out the gamestate feel real, and his interactions with specifically me also feel not-malicious and accompanied with a healthy amount of paranoia on his side, paranoia that I think would be much harder to fake or seem natural if he was a wolf.

I think my little blurb on him in 660 summarizes my townread on him decently well, but if I have some extra time I'll go ahead and put in words why I think he's so town.

I was kind of worried it was going to be like that. #660 is reasonable, but I really don't get the same sense of genunine engagement that you do - it feels more performative. I agree that if LW was mafia he could easily have reciprocated when you town read him, but his continuing changes of heart aren't really figuring you out, just reminding us that he hasn't nailed you down yet. Or could LW really Just Be Like That? If you could point me at some example games that illuminate the key meta behaviour you're leaning on that would help me get there.

When you first swapped to town LW, you said that you'd looked at his posts from a town mindset to see if they fit. Have you/would you like to do that with anyone else in the game? Or does it require a lot of meta familiarity? Do LW's posts fit if you try a scum mindset?

Quote from Prophylaxis »

Also Eco, this goes without saying, but my scumread on you is heavily predicated on PoE + the lackluster performance of your previous slot.

I'll do my fair share of evaluating you and your posts as the Day goes on.

(Have we actually ever played a game together?)

Yeah I get that, and if you guys have to GJ then so be it. But I would much prefer it if we can interact and clear my slot out of the PoE.

We've played the Org/CFC/MTGS invitational and ZDS' Normal. And Mind Screw

If you want a pair I guess the best option is DoTA and GF. The only real interaction happens in #437 where DoTA gives Grape a strong-but-handwavey town read, whereas KJ slides down into doubt. I can definitely see him wanting to hard town read his buddy while keeping the KJ option open.

Quote from Grapefruit21 »

Also sorry about the Euro's Eco. That was a brutal way to lose.

It turns out it was the friends we made along the way that came home.

Reread complete!

Top town reads are Proph and Axelrod. Proph picked up the most + points as I was reading, but in general I think his D1 progression was organic and didn't really fit a mafia mindset. He makes a lot of big calls (LW from mafia to town under zero pressure, Crossbell as Town, DV Mafia then Town) when it would have been easy to ride on any read (or at least shelve them rather than reverse when they didn't gain traction). I also think his defence of Crossbell was towny - he put effort into the analysis and heart into arguing with DV, and he tried a couple of alternative wagons where mafia would have found it easy to park a vote and just not try to actually stop the Crossbell execute. This is just beyond what I think mafia Proph would think to do, especially since he caught some heat on D1 and didn't back down or go conservative.

Axelrod's town read is largely based on effort. I don't truly know the limit's of Axel's scum range, but the analysis he has posted reads like he's figuring players out one by one, not working toward a grander strategy (which I think is also supported by the resulting reads being fuzzy/relative rather than hard). I'm going to need a break before I can sift through them and decide how much I agree with though. I also wrote down #206 - I liked the fact that Axel not only directly went against the easiest mafia read at the time, but also didn't give out town points he wanted to because Crossbell claimed to not be Osie.

DoTArchon is my top mafia read - This isn't really groundbreaking, but he's been very focused on small things to the exclusion of having to interact with the thread at large (e.g. #259). Stuff like in #137 he's asking Crossbell for a very specific clarification but then just drops the (very predetermined looking) vote in #139. I know Axel liked #263 but I don't: "not T/T" a big call, but DoTA doesn't follow it up or push it - especially now that one half of it flipped town! #437 is probably the most content-dense post, but pretty much every read is either very fencesitty or comes from paranoia - nothing solid.

Others:
- GF really does not have a lot of content. I liked #66 for an against the grain LW town read. Similarly in #543 GF votes Proph in contrast to many easier wagons (GJ, DoTA, KJ) and it was a doubling down of an existing slightly dangerous read. The major problem is that GF hasn't done much else D2 other than just chip at Proph and make some fencesitting reads without voting anywhere. So he's either Mafia who's just clinging to a vanity vote or town in a tunnel who need to look back at the macro game. I think #768 is the latter direction but that's only a first step

- KJ I can broadly see what Axel is getting at in #842. KJ doesn't have a lot but the nuggets he does have are OK. I'm less high on the early NKA calls because I think they are very easy to present as content while also being useless. Agree also that KJ could have easily voted Crossbell early (countered by KJ joining that wagon in #524 specifically as heat was building on KJ). KJ feels peripheral but more in a manner where he doing his own thing in his own way rather than deliberately avoiding interaction. I guess like GF I need to see more thoughts on the game as a whole rather than narrow focuses. Probably starting with the Vote count analysis KJ has been mentioning a lot but not actually done.

Proph I need your help here on LW. During my reread I was nodding along with your early mafia-read of him - I thought he was overly defensive, inconsistent, trying pretty hard to seem relaxed/detached, and spent a lot of time agreeing and voting with you despite reading you as mafia. I picked out #230 as a broad "let's look at the low posters" very soon after you cased him in #181. Even in D2 while there's been more engagement he's been holding back waiting for results of this "game" which I'm very unimpressed by because needing to wait for everyone to answer is a great way to stall out when you have lurkers.
But, Proph, you've switched your read to pretty much ride or die town and I need you to help me because I don't get it. I get that you read him from a town mindset and it fit, and I can see some positives like it sounds like he's talking without a filter, and I think that his voting would be less erratic (or at least more tactical) if he was mafia. But I also feel like his votes have been pretty safe and he's tried quite hard to make sure we all know he's having trouble nailing down reads. So, uh, help please?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Overall I'm not wild about coming to basically the same PoE gamestate as the thread at large because for some mysterious reason I am very reluctant to just speed execute the whole consensus PoE pool. So although I'm down to clown on DoTA, I'm really hoping KJ and GF can most moar so we can work out if they're townies who are underwhelming or lurking scum rather than just triple-barreling them. It is also important that we force Proph and Axelrod to keep up their engagement so they can't coast on early game effort posts.

Vote DoTArchon