1) For your questions in 7 & 8: I don't really see why they both couldn't exist in a game like this. Similar effects with variants on how to get there.
2) I agree with much of your 4, but I'm not sold on Az being scum, and I haven't caught up enough to have formed much of an opinion yet on Anak.
3) I feel bad that I'm not being dazzling.
I will absolutely vote Az to prevent a no yeet, though. The problem I have with Az right now is that he's good enough to take all that expertise and fabricate false positives that hold up under scrutiny. And he's selling himself awfully hard. But I'm not sure that town!Az wouldn't be doing the exact same thing at this point, so... :/
I've caught up a little more, and also read everything since my last post.
@Tubba: I'm still re-forming reads, so it's not so much that I think he's town as that I thought Silver's point was a good one.
@Wisp: Explain why if Cuth is a wolf, then Boom is also a wolf? I iso'd Cuth to see what his claim was. Knowing now that he (claims he) chose Boomfrog and then pushed for his yeet, why do you think Boom is a wolf if Chad is a wolf? If he chose Boom, that removes my modgaming element, though; they could still both be town.
@Bessie: No, not saying "Silver was town, so had to be right". I meant that since Silver flipped town, we know that his analysis was sincere (and, I thought, a good point, although obviously not as good as I initially thought).
@Vaimes: Sorry if I missed it/if it's in a post I haven't read yet, but can you confirm that Cuth has claimed in more detail to you in private?
@Cuth: Sorry (argh, I hate this) if you made this clear earlier in your iso than I have time to check currently, but was your "if Boom dies I get something" only active yesterDay (for D2) and if he dies now you don't get the shiny you were hoping for?
While skimming some iso's I also saw Boom's claim, HR's claim, and Boom's suggestion we all skill Tammy. I don't yet know where that discussion ended up (I'm guessing it didn't happen), but the benefits I could see would be a) locking players into a vanilla/non-vanilla claim status, and b) allowing Tammy to look for dichotomies (multiple docs, multiple cops, etc).
Silver's point in 1574 on wolf!Bur not likely spending Vitality to talk to Tammy is a good one, too.
I like Bessie's tenacity. The kind of effort she's putting into attacking Tammy could come from scum, but it would have to be a conscious effort to go against a mountain of players vocalizing Tammy as town, and I feel like most scum, even ones with plenty of faith in their own abilities to push a misyeet (or even just sow small seeds of doubt in a general townread), would be more likely to push harder in a direction more likely to get traction. Town lean on Bessie.
Cuth's statement that he needs to kill Boom is a weird one. That kind of "goal-based" objective feels like the kind of thing I generally expect from a 3rd party role. Barring that, it feels suuuuuuper unlikely to be a "town needing to kill town" role. Mild modgaming, I suppose, but that doesn't feel likely (even as a "town gets mild boon when fellow town dies" when Cuth is bloodthirsting after a dead Boom). So I strongly suspect that Cuth and Boom are not both town. Fairly even odds that it's town!Cuth gaining a benefit from killing scum!Boom vs scum!Cuth gaining a benefit from killing town!Boom. Slight chance that scum!Cuth saw buddy!Boom likely going down already and gains a benefit if his buddy!Boom leaves the game and decided to make the benefit known, but....probably unlikely imo.
@Az: I just read 1624, so that answers my question to you from my last post.
Az's 1629 iso of me...feels somewhat unlikely to come from scum? I feel like I've probably made posts that could be twisted and attacked, and I've certainly not been active, so I probably would have been LHF at that point. So if Az is wolf, then either he a) doesn't feel like pushing a misyeet on me is going to go anywhere, or b) fears that pushing me as a misyeet will make me be active. I guess he could be trying to pocket me, but, again, I've been one of the least active players, so how is me being in his pocket going to help him?
Not a fan of Wisp charming HR without general consensus. I totally get why he did so, but... :/
1641 don't like that Az casually drops the possibility of someone investigating Wisp. Scum would love nothing more than town wasting investigative efforts on a 3pr.
Ok, I've made it through 150 posts in just over an hour. I will have at least another hour tomorrow during the day and another hour tomorrow night, maybe more. Halfway through I realized it might be better if I started with D3, but...that's not really how I roll.
Hey, I'm slowly trying to catch up, mostly just reading and getting an overall sense of where we are. Being sick + holidays sorta wrecked me, but I really don't want to slink off into replacementland on this one, so...I'm trying.
I'm going to try to post thoughts as I have them in an effort to keep somewhat active.
First question, with full disclosure of only having read a modicum of toDay's posts: I thought that Silver's assessment of Cuth being an actless scum being unlikely was pretty astute. Now that Silver's flipped town and we know that he was telling the truth, why are people suspecting Cuth?
I'm mostly asking this @Azrael and @Tubba, but just above here, @Boomfrog says he's ok yeeting Cuth, as well. Has something else happened to counter Silver's point? Or do people just feel like it's not as good a point as I do?
@Wisp: Yeah, I reeeaaallllllly thought that. I even considered messaging Grape and asking if he would be cool if I just continued ghosting to see how long it took before someone called me out, but figured that would put him in a bad spot.
@Highroller: How many third party roles have you actually rolled in your mafia career? I happen to light up like a Christmas tree when I see one in my inbox, but I have come to realize that I'm a freak and that most people don't actually enjoy rolling 3pr. Mostly because it's frequently difficult to achieve the wincons. So when you ask why so many people are willing to "risk" a "serial killer", I wouldn't be surprised if that's actually a bigger factor than many realize. Yes, I want to win, but if there's a 3pr that can win WITH me, I'm all for at least giving it a chance. Is there a risk? Yes. But I think the likelihood that Grape would design a 3pr that ends the game when they win is super unlikely (unless Wisp's role is seriously a legit last-man-standing-serial-killer role, in which case, he's going to be caught out a LOT sooner than when he's the last man standing). Maybe I'm wrong and yeeting Wisp is the only play that leads to a town win at this point, but I don't think it's necessary. I actually think that Wisp is likely a self-resolving situation and using up a yeet on him is suboptimal.
Note that I don't actually expect this to change your perspective or your desire to yeet Wisp, but you seem absolutely dumbfounded as to why everyone's being so laissez faire about Wisp, and I thought that perspective might help you understand, especially if you haven't rolled many/any 3rd party roles.
Like, this is modgaming 100% but I don't really see another option here
This game should not have passed review with a third party in it that could end the game at the end of day 2 by killing people with a quality that could be on over half the game by the end of day 1
Cantripmancer likes this post.
@Wisp: Sorry, I thought you were saying YOU knew that people who Wit was used on suddenly gained the Wit ability.
@HR: If Wisp charms anyone we don't tell him to charm, we yeet him. I'm not advocating he charm you, and I don't think many are, so...if he charms you, we'd yeet him before he could drain you. (Yes, I'm assuming he's telling the truth about how his ability works, based in part off of Cuth backing him up.)
@GJ: a) I'm not done with my deeper reread, so that's not necessarily all I have for you, and b) I saw your response and figured I'd respond to it when I got back to that point. But since you groused nicely:
Yes, I know I wasn't posting, which after 50+ hours and several hundred posts since Day start I would have expected that to be noticed at least on some level. I seriously considered waiting until I got prodded to see if I made it that long without anyone saying anything, but I felt like that was mildly detrimental to the game. Only other player who was in the same situation, afaict, was WMU, who requested replacement. And sorry for my negative tone; I'm just feeling a little frustrated because my last game (on Mafia Colosseum) was essentially town tearing town apart while the scum (me included) sat back with popcorn, so I'm a bit concerned that the same thing is happening here. (I was also rather miffed at myself for forgetting that this game was a thing.)
I'm holding off on my read on Frog until he responds to my last post (and possibly other things in the rest of my catch up).
Right now the "wolfiest" players are, mostly, the ones that either aren't posting much (WMU-slot, Boom, maybe Cuth) and those that I expect more from (Az, Iso). I don't like feeling that way, even if it aligns with my concerns that the scum are lying low, because I feel like I'm arriving at that conclusion by default rather than for Reasons. Towniest player, by far, is Tammy.
I'm doing all I can at the moment to disrupt wolves: catch up and ask questions.
I like that Bur was willing to spend vitality to communicate with Tammy overNight. @Tammy: It sounds like he asked about non-game related elements; was he active and asking about the game, too?
I feel that a double-vote is more likely to be on town than scum, but it's not an auto-pass for GJ.
@GJ: Where's the breadcrumb?
@Wisp: Am I right in remembering that if you give someone a charm toDay, then toNight you only have to spend 1V to trigger both charms (if you choose to)? Also, in 1179, what KJ reaction are you referring to, exactly?
also for the sake of clarity
which I did not previously know, blame wording
anyone that is targeted by the wit chat, also becomes witted
I feel like this would be the kind of thing that would be explicit in the Wit ability (CC's ability reads "The Wit: 1-Shot Anytime Action - You bond with another player and are able to each send one 30-word message per phase to each other."). This is information you know from your role PM?
@Tubba: Unpack your apology to Grape in 1188 for me?
I'm going to need to analyze the CropCircles bandwagon a lot more, and I encourage everyone else to do so as well. The case against CropCircles prior to him deciding to take a dive was nonexistent.
ohh no it was there, that Rhand read was completely fabricated, CC was not reading the game to the best of their ability, and not adequately using their vote to the advantage of town
Azreal somehow saw a glimpse of town in CC's terrible iso, which going on a limb makes very little sense
like maybe he believes it, its hard to say, but the way he jumped back after the whole self-vote feels oddly townie
personally I hated him bringing up OOG to defend his change of playstyle, but he went through the trouble, of posting all the post numbers for why GJ is a baddie in his opinion, even if he didn't instantiate them, which feels better than him not explaining them at all
Were you talking about this post or something else?
Well, they were natural thought processes. Just not natural *town" thought processes.
Don't suppose we can leave CC around a few days since I haven't played with him in like a decade? No? *Sigh*. Remind me not to give reads without actually PBPAing people.
We should likely do an FOS count for who we are requiring wisp to target.
Town:
Tammy - Very pure thinking Cantrip - Trying to sort
Vaimes - D2 frustration is real
Silvercrys3467 - Mirrored my thoughts about the TMI on CC. Bur - Pretty pure thoughts
Wisp (3rder, but I don't think he's mafia)
Scummy:
Gentleman Johnny - Not sincerely trying to sort. Tubba Fett - Aggressivly looking for easy yeets. Focusing on wisp to avoid scum hunting.
Highroller - focusing on wisp to avoid scumhunting
Unsorted (not in order):
Iso
xX_WakeMeUp1337_Xx
Killjoy
Cuthalion
Azrael Slothful
The bolded reads don't feel natural/real. Sloth has posted enough content that it feels off to have him in an unsorted pile. Bur's been super content-lite, no matter how "pure" some of his posts may have sounded.
@Boomfrog: Show me where Tubba was focusing on Wisp to avoid scumhunting?
And the read on me, while I could buy it in the heat of the moment D1, is suuuuper stale, especially since I hadn't posted since D2 began.
Meh, I'm running out of time. More when I can. In the meantime, feel free to respond to any of the above questions.
So....I sorta forgot that the Day had started, so my apologies.
But...
If I were mafia, I'd be pretty happy with the state of things. I did a skim catchup for the Day because I felt bad that I hadn't been here, and as far as I can tell, no one asked me a question, no one levied any suspicion my way, I was barely mentioned as part of GJ's and Boomfrog's conflict....I'd totally be skating right now. Freaking....really? I actually just opened up the first page of the thread to make sure I didn't die during the Night and just didn't notice.
I'm going to go back to the start of the Day and do a deep read.
To address the current topic of conversation: @Highroller: I have ZERO concern that we will lose the game if Wisp wins (if he's actually a 3pr, which given the Witted wincon indication, I think is highly likely). If we have 3+ Witted corpses that Wisp helped to kill and he doesn't leave the game, we yeet him on sight, but otherwise, I'm not nearly as concerned with him as I am with finding scum.
@Az: You're really not paying enough attention. Wisp claims he targets during the Day, then bleeds that target during the Night. So we can direct who he targets...toMorrow.
And for the record, I think any plan that pushes for every player to utilize the Skill (and therefore use their vitality, and therefore be closer to dying) is a bad plan. Do you really think we'd gain enough in a scheme like that to offset the cost? (As opposed to just...playing Mafia?)
Recycle was the card that started me down the dark path to becoming the Cantripmancer. Such a powerhouse, especially with Spellbook and others of its ilk. And Phil Foglio's art is hilarious.
1) For your questions in 7 & 8: I don't really see why they both couldn't exist in a game like this. Similar effects with variants on how to get there.
2) I agree with much of your 4, but I'm not sold on Az being scum, and I haven't caught up enough to have formed much of an opinion yet on Anak.
3) I feel bad that I'm not being dazzling.
I will absolutely vote Az to prevent a no yeet, though. The problem I have with Az right now is that he's good enough to take all that expertise and fabricate false positives that hold up under scrutiny. And he's selling himself awfully hard. But I'm not sure that town!Az wouldn't be doing the exact same thing at this point, so... :/
@Tubba: I'm still re-forming reads, so it's not so much that I think he's town as that I thought Silver's point was a good one.
@Wisp: Explain why if Cuth is a wolf, then Boom is also a wolf? I iso'd Cuth to see what his claim was. Knowing now that he (claims he) chose Boomfrog and then pushed for his yeet, why do you think Boom is a wolf if Chad is a wolf? If he chose Boom, that removes my modgaming element, though; they could still both be town.
@Bessie: No, not saying "Silver was town, so had to be right". I meant that since Silver flipped town, we know that his analysis was sincere (and, I thought, a good point, although obviously not as good as I initially thought).
@Vaimes: Sorry if I missed it/if it's in a post I haven't read yet, but can you confirm that Cuth has claimed in more detail to you in private?
@Cuth: Sorry (argh, I hate this) if you made this clear earlier in your iso than I have time to check currently, but was your "if Boom dies I get something" only active yesterDay (for D2) and if he dies now you don't get the shiny you were hoping for?
While skimming some iso's I also saw Boom's claim, HR's claim, and Boom's suggestion we all skill Tammy. I don't yet know where that discussion ended up (I'm guessing it didn't happen), but the benefits I could see would be a) locking players into a vanilla/non-vanilla claim status, and b) allowing Tammy to look for dichotomies (multiple docs, multiple cops, etc).
I like Bessie's tenacity. The kind of effort she's putting into attacking Tammy could come from scum, but it would have to be a conscious effort to go against a mountain of players vocalizing Tammy as town, and I feel like most scum, even ones with plenty of faith in their own abilities to push a misyeet (or even just sow small seeds of doubt in a general townread), would be more likely to push harder in a direction more likely to get traction. Town lean on Bessie.
Cuth's statement that he needs to kill Boom is a weird one. That kind of "goal-based" objective feels like the kind of thing I generally expect from a 3rd party role. Barring that, it feels suuuuuuper unlikely to be a "town needing to kill town" role. Mild modgaming, I suppose, but that doesn't feel likely (even as a "town gets mild boon when fellow town dies" when Cuth is bloodthirsting after a dead Boom). So I strongly suspect that Cuth and Boom are not both town. Fairly even odds that it's town!Cuth gaining a benefit from killing scum!Boom vs scum!Cuth gaining a benefit from killing town!Boom. Slight chance that scum!Cuth saw buddy!Boom likely going down already and gains a benefit if his buddy!Boom leaves the game and decided to make the benefit known, but....probably unlikely imo.
@Az: I just read 1624, so that answers my question to you from my last post.
Az's 1629 iso of me...feels somewhat unlikely to come from scum? I feel like I've probably made posts that could be twisted and attacked, and I've certainly not been active, so I probably would have been LHF at that point. So if Az is wolf, then either he a) doesn't feel like pushing a misyeet on me is going to go anywhere, or b) fears that pushing me as a misyeet will make me be active. I guess he could be trying to pocket me, but, again, I've been one of the least active players, so how is me being in his pocket going to help him?
Not a fan of Wisp charming HR without general consensus. I totally get why he did so, but... :/
1641 don't like that Az casually drops the possibility of someone investigating Wisp. Scum would love nothing more than town wasting investigative efforts on a 3pr.
Ok, I've made it through 150 posts in just over an hour. I will have at least another hour tomorrow during the day and another hour tomorrow night, maybe more. Halfway through I realized it might be better if I started with D3, but...that's not really how I roll.
I'm going to try to post thoughts as I have them in an effort to keep somewhat active.
First question, with full disclosure of only having read a modicum of toDay's posts: I thought that Silver's assessment of Cuth being an actless scum being unlikely was pretty astute. Now that Silver's flipped town and we know that he was telling the truth, why are people suspecting Cuth?
I'm mostly asking this @Azrael and @Tubba, but just above here, @Boomfrog says he's ok yeeting Cuth, as well. Has something else happened to counter Silver's point? Or do people just feel like it's not as good a point as I do?
Someone was very nice and gave me a small gift last Night; thanks.
@Highroller: How many third party roles have you actually rolled in your mafia career? I happen to light up like a Christmas tree when I see one in my inbox, but I have come to realize that I'm a freak and that most people don't actually enjoy rolling 3pr. Mostly because it's frequently difficult to achieve the wincons. So when you ask why so many people are willing to "risk" a "serial killer", I wouldn't be surprised if that's actually a bigger factor than many realize. Yes, I want to win, but if there's a 3pr that can win WITH me, I'm all for at least giving it a chance. Is there a risk? Yes. But I think the likelihood that Grape would design a 3pr that ends the game when they win is super unlikely (unless Wisp's role is seriously a legit last-man-standing-serial-killer role, in which case, he's going to be caught out a LOT sooner than when he's the last man standing). Maybe I'm wrong and yeeting Wisp is the only play that leads to a town win at this point, but I don't think it's necessary. I actually think that Wisp is likely a self-resolving situation and using up a yeet on him is suboptimal.
Note that I don't actually expect this to change your perspective or your desire to yeet Wisp, but you seem absolutely dumbfounded as to why everyone's being so laissez faire about Wisp, and I thought that perspective might help you understand, especially if you haven't rolled many/any 3rd party roles.
@Wisp: Sorry, I thought you were saying YOU knew that people who Wit was used on suddenly gained the Wit ability.
@HR: If Wisp charms anyone we don't tell him to charm, we yeet him. I'm not advocating he charm you, and I don't think many are, so...if he charms you, we'd yeet him before he could drain you. (Yes, I'm assuming he's telling the truth about how his ability works, based in part off of Cuth backing him up.)
It feels...weird that someone would out themselves to you like that, but not impossible, I guess?
Lol...if you've killed two others with Wit and you're on your own yeetwagon when you get yeeted, do you win?
Ok.
Ok, thanks.
Yes, I know I wasn't posting, which after 50+ hours and several hundred posts since Day start I would have expected that to be noticed at least on some level. I seriously considered waiting until I got prodded to see if I made it that long without anyone saying anything, but I felt like that was mildly detrimental to the game. Only other player who was in the same situation, afaict, was WMU, who requested replacement. And sorry for my negative tone; I'm just feeling a little frustrated because my last game (on Mafia Colosseum) was essentially town tearing town apart while the scum (me included) sat back with popcorn, so I'm a bit concerned that the same thing is happening here. (I was also rather miffed at myself for forgetting that this game was a thing.)
I'm holding off on my read on Frog until he responds to my last post (and possibly other things in the rest of my catch up).
Right now the "wolfiest" players are, mostly, the ones that either aren't posting much (WMU-slot, Boom, maybe Cuth) and those that I expect more from (Az, Iso). I don't like feeling that way, even if it aligns with my concerns that the scum are lying low, because I feel like I'm arriving at that conclusion by default rather than for Reasons. Towniest player, by far, is Tammy.
I'm doing all I can at the moment to disrupt wolves: catch up and ask questions.
Thanks for highlighting the breadcrumb.
I like that Bur was willing to spend vitality to communicate with Tammy overNight. @Tammy: It sounds like he asked about non-game related elements; was he active and asking about the game, too?
I feel that a double-vote is more likely to be on town than scum, but it's not an auto-pass for GJ.
@GJ: Where's the breadcrumb?
@Wisp: Am I right in remembering that if you give someone a charm toDay, then toNight you only have to spend 1V to trigger both charms (if you choose to)? Also, in 1179, what KJ reaction are you referring to, exactly?
I feel like this would be the kind of thing that would be explicit in the Wit ability (CC's ability reads "The Wit: 1-Shot Anytime Action - You bond with another player and are able to each send one 30-word message per phase to each other."). This is information you know from your role PM?
@Tubba: Unpack your apology to Grape in 1188 for me?
@Last: When you said the bolded:
Were you talking about this post or something else?
@Vaimes: Why is Cuth a wet noodle?
@Silver: I thought your idea to look at the players who thought CC could still be town after his self-vote to see if there was any TMI was a good one; did you ever follow up on that? (Asking in part because I think *I* would be suspicious of *my* reaction to that if I weren't me, but you either didn't follow up on that idea or you didn't find me (or anyone else) suspicious when you looked back?)
The bolded reads don't feel natural/real. Sloth has posted enough content that it feels off to have him in an unsorted pile. Bur's been super content-lite, no matter how "pure" some of his posts may have sounded.
@Boomfrog: Show me where Tubba was focusing on Wisp to avoid scumhunting?
And the read on me, while I could buy it in the heat of the moment D1, is suuuuper stale, especially since I hadn't posted since D2 began.
Meh, I'm running out of time. More when I can. In the meantime, feel free to respond to any of the above questions.
But...
If I were mafia, I'd be pretty happy with the state of things. I did a skim catchup for the Day because I felt bad that I hadn't been here, and as far as I can tell, no one asked me a question, no one levied any suspicion my way, I was barely mentioned as part of GJ's and Boomfrog's conflict....I'd totally be skating right now. Freaking....really? I actually just opened up the first page of the thread to make sure I didn't die during the Night and just didn't notice.
I'm going to go back to the start of the Day and do a deep read.
To address the current topic of conversation: @Highroller: I have ZERO concern that we will lose the game if Wisp wins (if he's actually a 3pr, which given the Witted wincon indication, I think is highly likely). If we have 3+ Witted corpses that Wisp helped to kill and he doesn't leave the game, we yeet him on sight, but otherwise, I'm not nearly as concerned with him as I am with finding scum.
And for the record, I think any plan that pushes for every player to utilize the Skill (and therefore use their vitality, and therefore be closer to dying) is a bad plan. Do you really think we'd gain enough in a scheme like that to offset the cost? (As opposed to just...playing Mafia?)