MTG Salvation

Quote from ktkenshinx

Alright, so me and my friends finished our tests against BGw Rock (BG Souls) the other day. For reference, we used the 2nd place BGw Rock list from GP Brisbane. For our Belcher list, we used the one below. The most controversial part of this list will probably be the 7 lands instead of 8, which decreases the chance of having at least one mana source in our opening hand from roughly 81% to only 78%. In exchange, we get to thin quicker, use Recross/Abundance earlier, and have a lethal Belcher more often.

Forest Belcher by ktkenshinxMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards
Lands: 7 7 Forest Creatures: 18 4 Birds of Paradise 4 Chancellor of the Tangle 4 Sakura-Tribe Elder 4 Gatecreeper Vine 2 Llanowar Elves Other Spells: 35 4 Goblin Charbelcher 3 Harrow 1 Abundance 4 Ancient Stirrings 4 Caravan Vigil 2 Cultivate 2 Kodama's Reach 4 Lay of the Land 4 Safewright Quest 4 Recross the Paths 3 Utopia Sprawl	Sideboard: 15 3 Fog 3 Autumn's Veil 2 Dismember 2 Noxious Revival 2 Beast Within 3 Nature's Claim

The sideboard was picked to give us answers against the widest range of decks in the metagame. Nature's Claim was given the nod over Deglamer, Naturalize, or Quiet Disrepair because it is so cheap. It means that we often have the mana needed to both cast Belcher and kill a Stony Silence (more on Silence later...). It's not set in stone but it's a good starting point.

TEST PARAMETERS
Deck pilots ran 5 game 1s and 5 games 2/3s before recording results, just to familiarize themselves with the decks. Belcher also got 20 goldfishes just so we understood how the deck mulliganed and how its decision tree worked out. Players were experienced Magic slingers with extensive tournament and Modern experience.

For Game 1, preboard, we ran 15 games on the play and 15 on the draw, selecting the player with the most Jund experience for BG Souls, and the most combo experience for Belcher. For the sake of speed, all 30 games for game 1 were done in Magic Workstation instead of paper; it is much quicker to shuffle in that program, and Belcher has a LOT of shuffle effects. Although this may introduce some odd randomization elements, it is probably no different than the paper matchups (And almost certainly no different from the MTGO ones).

For Game 2, postboard, we also ran 15 games on the play and 15 on the draw. Before we started the postboard games, we played a few sample rounds just to see what cards would be important and how best to sideboard. Our sideboard substitutions are discussed below.

OVERALL RESULTS
Thin Belcher has a very strong game 1 against BG Souls, but a very weak games 2 and 3.

Game 1 win rate: 76% (23/30)
Average game 1 win turn: Turn 5

Game 2 win rate: 40% (12/30)
Average game 2 win turn: Turn 5

In game 1, BG Souls has a tough time interacting with our game plan. Edge doesn't hit our lands. Most of our creatures aren't worth removing (Steve, Gatecreeper) or are too redundant to matter (dorks). Discard hurts, but Recross/Abundance lets us hide cards on top of our deck for use on the next turn. Souls also doesn't play enough Pulses to kill a resolved Belcher. The big fear in game 1 is a turn 2 Lilly, especially on the draw, which quickly threatens her ultimate. But for the most part, this is an easy game.

Then comes games 2 and 3; not favorable for the Belcher pilot. This is almost entirely due to one card in the sideboard of the Souls deck: Stony Silence. As I will talk about later, the BG Souls player resolved Silence in 10 of the 30 games. Belcher won exactly 0 of the games in which Stony resolved; stated another way, Belcher lost 100% of games where the Souls player resolved Silence. Add that to the additional pressures of Souls and you have a recipe for disaster.

GAME 1 DISCUSSION
The key to game 1 is that many Souls spells just aren't very good against our deck. Decay hits our mana acceleration, but almost all of it costs 1 mana, so the 2 mana removal spell is rarely a favorable trade for an opponent. Same with Dismember and Throat. IoK is similarly pretty bad against us because it doesn't hit Belcher (nor does Decay). TS is always a strong card, but Recross/Abundance lets us hide cards on top of our deck.

Game 1 win rate: 76% (23/30)
Game 1 mulligan rate: 30% (9/30)
Average mulligan: 5.5
Win rate when mulliganing? 56% (5/9)
# of games when IoK'd or TS'd: 15/30
Win rate when IoK'd/TS'd: 87% (13/15)

Even with 7 lands, I wasn't mulling a lot. And when I did mull, I was still winning; I won a game after mulling to 4 with a topdecked Belcher on turn 4. I also ate a discard spell in half of my games (maybe more if we forget to make a note of it), but it didn't affect my win rate at all. If anything, the discard spell was something I could easily ignore, so it ended up being worse for my opponent to keep hands with it.

Almost all of my losses were to turn 2 Lillys or turn 3 Lillys with Souls on the play. If you get a slow start and can't race her to 6 loyalty, then you are going to lose. I managed to win 2 games that I should have lost to her ult by deciding to fire a Belcher at her instead of at the opponent. In both games, my deck wasn't thinned enough to guarantee lethal, but a Lilly ult would definitely spell game over.

Here are some quick notes on game 1:

• Holding vs. playing Belcher
If your opponent already fired a TS, then it doesn't matter whether you hold or play Belcher; most Souls lists pack 3 TS and 2-3 Pulse, leaning towards 2. But if your opponent has not fired a TS, then never keep it in your hand. The chances of them drawing a TS are higher than those of drawing a Pulse.

• Only block 4+ power Goyfs
Don't waste your chump blockers on chump damage, especially if it adds creatures to the yard. If you block a 3 power Goyf on turn 3 and prevent 3 damage to you, Goyf could tick up to 4 power next turn. Then you take 8 damage over the next 2 turns. If instead you let that Goyf slip through twice, you are still only down 6 damage and can now block the third attack to be ahead.

• Swing at Lilly to keep her off 6 loyalty
If Lilly ults, we lose. In both games 1 and 2/3, I lost 100% of games where Lilly ulted. If Steve or Llanowar Elves can poke her and keep her off loyalty, that is often better than directly thinning your deck for land. Obviously, don't attack suicidally. But turn 2 Lilly can often be attacked by something, as can turn 3 Lilly.

• Try and save Recross to tutor
In the 7 land version, you can often use Recross on turn 4 as a tutor, or even on turn 3 with some hands. Try and save it for that purpose even if it means wasting a single turn waiting for another land searcher. We only have 4 Recross in the deck. We have about 25+ other thinners. Wait for the thinner and use Recross to find your win. You can also gamble on a Recross Clash because our average mana cost is much higher than that of an opponents (we only play 7 lands).

• CHANCELLOR BEATZ
I won two games in game 1 because of Chancellor either beating down or serving as a blocker. 6/7 is absolutely massive and he can kill all but the scariest Goyf. Vigilance lets him pressure an opponent and keep you alive, and Reach lets him swat Souls tokens. If your opponent has Confidant online, in addition to TS/Fetch/Shock damage, he can't afford to let this guy connect.

GAMES 2/3 DISCUSSION
This game revolved entirely around Stony Silence. If it resolved, I lost. If it didn't resolve, I probably won. The big issue here is that Silence is a permanent, proactive answer to Belcher. The other big issue is that all of our ways of killing it (Claim and Beast) need to stick around in our hand to be relevant. Remember our relative immunity to IoK and TS in game 1? It's gone. Now we are majorly at the mercy of those cards.

Belcher Sideboard:
-1 Cultivate, -1 Reach, -1 Harrow, -1 Gatecreeper, -1 Abundance
+2 Beast Within, +3 Nature's Claim
Souls Sideboard:
-1 Throat, -1 Dismember, -1 Souls, -1 Decay
+2 Stony Silence, +1 Thoughtseize, +1 Phyrexian Arena

Games 2/3 win rate: 40% (12/30)
Games 2/3 mulligan rate: 27% (8/30)
Average mulligan: 5
Win rate when mulliganing? 25% (2/8)
Stony Silence games: 10/30
Stony Silence game win rate: 0% (0/10)
Non-Stony Silence game win rate: 60% (12/20)

Stony Silence sucks. I hate that card. Because we don't have any hand disruption in our own deck, the BG Souls player can just hold it back until turn 3 and trick us into thinking a win is in sight. Killing Silence is easy in theory, but in practice it forces us to rely on holding cards in hand over many turns, which opens us up to targeted discard.

The problem with Stony is that the Souls player drops it and then advances on with their game plan. We have to stop everything to remove the card, which turns our deck from a 1 card combo into a 2 card combo with fewer ways of finding the removal half of the combo. All it takes then is 1 Goyf plus a DRS to clock us to 0 in 4-5 turns (And DRS never has any shortage of pinging fuel).

Adding in the 5 removal spells from the board also made me a bit less explosive, so there were games when I couldn't answer a turn 3 Lilly ticking up to her ult. It was nice to have additional answers to Arenas when they resolved, but my removal was often either discarded by targeted spells or pitched to Lilly +1 to keep better cards in my hand.

Here are some notes from games 2/3:

• Never hold Belcher
Souls players will probably board in their additional TS in games 2 and 3, especially if they anticipate our removal being brought in to handle Silence. But that's additional vulnerability for our Belchers in hand. So as soon as you get one, play it. Moreover, we need to maximize our mana; if you ever draw a removal spell to kill an active Stony, you need to be able to activate the Belcher immediately because you were already probably on the clock.

• Try and play Chancellor
The Souls player will almost definitely board out a bunch of creature removal in games 2 and 3, which makes Chancellor even better. We tend to have enough random dudes on our board to keep Chancellor safe from Lilly, and even if they chump it with Goyf/Confidant/Scooze and Dismember, we are still up a card from that exchange. Chancellor also doesn't give a crap about Stony Silence (Even if the thing in the picture looks like it could be related).

• When making Recross stacks, alternate Belcher/Removal/Belcher/etc.
In most games against Souls, the Souls player had out either Bob or Arena. That's a lot of card draw and the Souls player will tend to get Pulse/Silence by the time you get Belcher. In anticipation of either threat, make sure your Recross tutoring will alternate Belcher and removal, maximizing your chances of punching through whatever the Souls player throws at you. If you stack 2 Belchers and they Silence, you just double timewalked yourself. If you stack 2 removal with no belcher, you have no win condition if they are just holding pulse.

• Don't mulligan aggressively
If your hand looks semi-playable, then play it. Even if it doesnt have removal or Belchers, it's better than a grip of 6 or 5 with only one of those cards. Why? Lilly and the other discard spells. It's almost always better to maximize your hand and thin through your deck than focus on specific cards. If Lilly puts you behind too early, then you won't recover from a mull to 6, especially if backed up with IoK/TS.

CONCLUSIONS
This deck has a lot more potential than some people are giving it credit. It's very hard to interact with in game 1 and surprisingly resilient to all but the most dedicated sideboard cards in games 2/3 (and even then, 40% win rate isn't that terrible). Based on my experience with BG Souls, here are the changes I would make to the deck:

-4 Birds of Paradise
+4 Elvish Mystic OR +1/2 Mystic/+3/2 Arbor Elves
Birds are probably there to enable some splashed hate in the board, like Grudge or Decay or something similar. But because we don't have a reliable way of finding the lands to cast those cards, I would advise against it. Once we don't have BoP, then we want some 1 power dudes in this deck. Why? Pinging Lilly and chumping Bob. This can buy us a solid 1-3 turns against Souls /Jund/Junk/Rock lists. If we find a more elegant/consistent way of getting out something like Stomping Ground or Overgrown Tomb, then we can keep the Birds to enable cards like Grudge/Decay/TS in the board. But if not, then the 1 power on the Elves is going to be better.
The rationale for adding Arbor would be the combo with Sprawl, but we also don't want Arbor if we don't also have a Forest. So a 1/3 split between Mystic/Arbor is probably better, or 2/2.

Transformational board?
When facing a card like Stony Silence, maybe we don't want to screw around trying to remove it. I failed at that in 10 of my 10 games facing it. Chancellor was a much more viable win route, even if he ended up losing for lack of real evasion or trample. Instead of going all-in on Belcher in games 2/3, maybe we should try and pump out a serious threat with our mana acceleration and win off of that. Dungrove Elder is an option, but his lack of evasion makes me hesitant to use him. Wurmcoil wouldn't be too terrible here. Maybe even Khalni Hydra, which we can definitely resolve around turn 4. Just some random thoughts. We can also use Recross to find Belcher if we want to win with that instead (keeping 1-2 copies in the deck).

7 vs. 8 lands
When you have 7 lands, you mulligan in 4% more games than if you have 8. Your Harrow is also a little riskier. In exchange, you guarantee lethal Belcher in more games, and you can Recross as a tutor a turn earlier on average. I'm not sure which is better because there is a complex mix of probability and non-probability factors at work here. 7 worked out fine for me in game 1 of my Souls series, but the additional mulls were problems in games 2/3. For reference, the chance of having at least 1 mana source in your opening 7 is around 81% with 8 lands and 4 Chancellor, and 78% for 7 lands and 4 Chancellor.

Quote from ktkenshinx

For reference, I used the Affinity list played by Justin Robb at GP Brisbane to a 1st place finish. For Forest Belcher, I used the following list and sideboard:

Forest Belcher by ktkenshinx (11/3/2013)Magic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards
Lands: 7 6 Snow-Covered Forest 1 Breeding Pool Creatures: 20 4 Chancellor of the Tangle 4 Sakura-Tribe Elder 3 Arbor Elf 3 Birds of Paradise 4 Wall of Roots 3 Simian Spirit Guide	Spells: 33 4 Goblin Charbelcher 4 Caravan Vigil 4 Lay of the Land 4 Safewright Quest 4 Recross the Paths 4 Utopia Sprawl 4 Rampant Growth 2 Into the North 2 Fabricate	Sideboard: 15 1 Pithing Needle 2 Spellskite 3 Fog 2 Noxious Revival 3 Nature's Claim 3 Defense Grid 1 Autumn's Veil

This list incorporated a few points that we had talked about over the last week. The biggest change is the removal of Ancient Stirrings, a card that was at best a necessary evil and, at worst, just plain bad. It adds in Fabricate in its place as our Belchers 5-6 on top of our Recrosses. The list also totally ditches the Harrow/Cultivate/Kodama's Reach spells in favor of the leaner 2 CMC Growth effects. Finally, it adds in Simian Spirit Guide for some explosiveness.

Previous test: BG Souls vs. Forest Belcher

TEST PARAMETERS

As with my other tests, deck pilots started by familiarizing themselves with the lists, running 5 game 1s and 5 games 2/3s before recording results. Belcher also got at least 50 goldfishes just so we understood how the newest list played and mulliganed. Players were experienced Magic slingers with extensive tournament and Modern experience.

For Game 1, preboard, we ran 15 games on the play and 15 on the draw, selecting the player with the most Affinity experience for Affinity, and the most combo experience for Belcher. For the sake of speed, all 30 games for game 1 were done in Magic Workstation instead of paper; it is much quicker to shuffle in that program, and Belcher has a LOT of shuffle effects. Although this may introduce some odd randomization elements, it is probably no different than the paper matchups (And almost certainly no different from the MTGO ones).

For Game 2, postboard, we also ran 15 games on the play and 15 on the draw. Before we started the postboard games, we played a few sample rounds just to see what cards would be important and how best to sideboard. Our sideboard substitutions are discussed below.

OVERALL RESULTS
Forest Belcher isn't consistently fast enough to compete with Affinity in game 1, which often comes down to who goes first and whether or not Affinity has a below-average start. But game 2 the matchup is dead even, with our sideboard cards being much more effective than those of Affinity. Overall it's a very fun and interactive matchup with a lot of subtleties.

Game 1 win rate: 40% (12/30)
Average game 1 win turn: 4.75

Games 2/3 win rate: 50% (15/15)
Average game 2 win turn: 4.75

The Affinity matchup revolves around 3 things. The first is speed, unsurprisingly, which is why game 1 is tougher than game 1. We are pretty much banking on being on the play and getting a decent hand. Or hoping that Affinity gets a below average one. We are fast enough to race Affinity, sort of, if some of those conditions are met. But on the draw, or against a very strong Affinity hand, don't expect it. In game 2 and 3 it's quite a bit better because our sideboard cards help out with stalling until that critical turn 4 (or 5).

The second important part of the Affinity matchup is the almighty Birds of Paradise. This card is invaluable against Affinity and there are times where I wish I had 4 instead of 3. He's our only chump blocker that can save us from an Inkmoth or a Plating-equipped Skirge. Affinity only plays 4 removal spells and the chances of them drawing the removal and drawing the killer Ravager/Inkmoth or Plating/Skirge (or Plating/Inkmoth) combo is much lower than our chances of drawing a Bird.

Finally, the Affinity post-board matchup is all about Fog. This card is nuts against Affinity and is often just a flat out Time Walk if used intelligently.

GAME 1 DISCUSSION
Don't expect to win game 1, especially if you are on the draw, and especially if you mulligan on top of being on the draw. You need an above-average hand to beat Affinity, and the key is often going to be dropping the turn 3 Belcher into a turn 4 Activation.

Game 1 win rate: 40% (12/18)
Game 1 win rate on the play: 47% (7/15)
Game 1 win rate on the draw: 33% (5/15)
Game 1 mulligan rate: 17% (5/30)
Average Belcher win turn: 4.75
Average Affinity win turn: 4.5

The numbers above just show how bad it is to be on the draw against Affinity. That's probably true of any deck, but it's particularly true for us because we don't have strong tools to hold the line against Affinity. Almost the entire Affinity deck flies, so our Elder and Wall just aren't as good as blockers. We also have no removal in game 1 so the Affinity player can be a lot more aggressive with Ravager and Inkmoth.

The speed of the matchup dictates a lot of different play trees and decisions you have to make. All of these issues might also arise against slower decks but, because Affinity is so fast, you often have less time to deal with them here. So here are some tips and situations that came up in our games:

• Belching a creature vs. an opponent
Against slower decks, it's almost always a better idea to Belch a player than a creature. That's true even if you think you might miss on your activation (if, say, you have 2 lands left in your deck). But against Affinity, there's no room for error. If your Belcher activation doesn't kill an opponent, chances are good that their next attack will kill you. The good news is that Belcher, if aimed at a creature, can often buy you another turn to get a few more deckthins out. But you have to weigh that against the chance that an opponent can win even if you Belch his key creature. For example, if you Belch the big Inkmoth but then he instant speed reattaches Plating to something else, you might lose anyway. Or maybe he topdecks another Ravager and puts the counters on his 2nd Inkmoth and wins with that. It's a complex probability calculation you have to do on the fly, but its integral to winning this matchup.

• Account for Vault Skirge lifelink
Vault Skirge gains a lot of life in not a lot of time. Make sure you account for that when Belching. It's easy to think "Well I only have 1 land left in my deck so that will probably be lethal" and ignore the fact that your opponent has 32 life.

• BoP is your go-to blocker
BoP is your mini-fog in game 1, so you need to make sure that the birdy sticks around until you need it. Sometimes that means holding back a BoP in your hand just to tempt your opponent into wasting burn on an Arbor Elf or Wall. Other times that means not using BoP to cast one more spell in order to save him as a blocker. The key in all situations is trying to predict what the Affinity player has in his hand or what he will draw. Affinity can explode out of nowhere with a topdecked Ravager or Plating or Thoughtcast into either of those two cards, so make sure your Bird is ready for that at all times.

• Gamble on speedy topdecks
There are a lot of cases where you can cast a turn 2 Fabricate for Belcher but then maybe not have the mana to play it on turn 3. But if you wait to Fabricate for the Belcher until turn 3, you can't cast and activate it until turn 4 because you don't have enough mana either. At that point, you might as well have Fabricated on turn 2. If you topdecked an SSG or Land or Sprawl and you had an Arbor Elf out, then you can cast Belcher right away. And if not, then you are still casting Belcher on turn 4 which is exactly what you would have done if you played it cautiously. Except, against Affinity, slow play leads to game losses, especially if you are on the draw. So when in doubt, set yourself up to use your land/SSG topdecks.

GAMES 2/3 DISCUSSION
These games were a lot better because of one card: Fog. Affinity really doesn't have a lot of great options against Fog short of Thoughtseize out of the board. As long as you are playing stuff on the turn before you are fogging, the card is great. Nature's Claim is also awesome here because Affinity needs to play aggressively to win, which means putting lots of resources into tight plays. Claim can break those plays wide open, especially when aiming at a Plating or Inkmoth. And if the Affinity player plays more cautiously, then you can win on turn 5 inevitability alone.

Here's how we sideboarded the decks:

Belcher Sideboard:
-2 Elder, -2 Into the North, -1 Arbor Elf
+3 Fog, +2 Nature's Claim
Affinity Sideboard:
-3 Champion, -3 Blast, -2 Overseer
+3 Grudge, +2 Thoughtseize, +2 Whipflare, +1 Wear/Tear

Whipflare is obnoxious and makes our Arbors a lot worse. Thoughtseize is strong but, because Affinity doesn't have the full 4 like BGx decks, it isn't nearly as scary. Grudge is the scariest card of the lot because it basically prevents us from a) playing Belcher without the mana to activate it or b) using a single Belcher multiple times. This changes how you play the deck, but it doesn't outweigh the impact of Fog in this game.

Games 2/3 win rate: 50% (15/15)
Games 2/3 win rate on the play: 60% (9/15)
Games 2/3 win rate on the draw: 40% (6/15)
Games 2/3 mulligan rate: 23% (7/30)
Average Belcher win turn: 4.75
Average Affinity win turn: 5

Everything got better in games 2 and 3, which suggests to me that we gain more from our sideboard than Affinity does from theirs. Fog is just so strong in this matchup because we have so many ways of getting Belcher by turn 5 and we just need to hold out until then. Fog buys us one turn on its own. BoP can buy us a second if used correctly. On the play, that means we will have a pretty good chance of winning so long as we have the Fog ready to go by turn 4. On the draw it's not as strong because we need to be ready to Fog on our turn 3 in preparation for our pending turn 4, and sometimes that isn't enough to win.

Here are some of my important notes from games 2/3:

• Don't cast Belcher until you can activate it
The chances of your Affinity opponent having Grudge and/or Wear in their hand are higher than their chances of having TS in their hand. Assuming they boarded in all 4, they have a 40% of having at least one removal spell in their opening hand alone. In many senses, it's the equivalent of a Fog; we have to delay playing Belcher until we are sure we can activate it, and we are sure we can win with it. But in a deck that, in effect, runs 10 Belchers between all of our tutors, this is easy for us to play around, because we can almost always find a Belcher by turn 4 for a turn 5 cast/activation. The big exception to this is if you have 2+ Belchers and can cast one to force the Affinity player to spend mana to kill it.

• Don't overextend into Whipflare
It's easy to remember not to overextend blockers into RG Tron because everyone knows about Pyroclasm. Whipflare is the sort of card you might forget, so watch out for it. Remember that a Wall of Roots can get killed by a post-combat mainphase Whipflare if he blocks a big enough guy.

• In Fog we trust
Fog is our strongest card in this matchup. Any opening hand with a Fog that is semi-playable is totally keepable. Why? Fog buys you a turn and this deck can do a lot with just one more turn. As a sort of obvious tip, make sure you aren't using Fog to prevent anything short of a lethal attack. You want to save it as long as possible. Also, remember that you can tap out and still cast Fog as long as you also have a Wall of Roots active. Just be careful for an EOT Galvanic on the Wall.

CONCLUSIONS
The deck performed very well over the course of our testing and I am excited to see where it goes next. Fog was so unbelievably strong against Affinity in games 2/3 that I am tempted to increase the count in the board to 4. My guess is that this card will be just as gamebreaking against all the other aggro decks except probably Burn. Claim was also strong against Affinity. I would be hesitant to run 2 CMC answers to Affinity (e.g. Hurkyll's Recall because their price tag generally prohibits us from maximizing our intervening turns. Also, spells like that are generally easy for Affinity to recover from, especially with Opal and Drum and all their other acceleration.

Fabricate was mostly a strong card except in the 3 games where I didn't have the blue mana to cast it and it sat around awkwardly in my hand. I really wish that there was a tutor in this format that could get Belcher for 2 mana instead of 3, but all of the black options (Spoils and Plunge) just cost too much life. They would have been worthless against Affinity. It's a damn shame that a card like Diabolic Intent isn't legal in Modern. All that said, it's still miles better than Stirrings.

Simian Spirit Guide is awesome in this deck. He powers out a lot of plays ahead of the curve, including turn 1 Wall of Roots, turn 2 Belcher, turn 3 Chancellor, and a whole bunch of other stuff. He's also hard to predict for an opponent so he can mess with their math. 4 copies would be too many and 3 seems a little high, but 2 would probably be too few. There was only one game of my 60 total where I had too many SSGs and it was a problem.

Wall of Roots is probably the best mana producer in the deck solely because of its ability to cheat out Belcher and activate it ahead of schedule. This was invaluable against Affinity, especially when I was aiming a Belcher at an opponent's creatures and not necessarily at an opponent. If you combine that with Walls chump blocking power, its synergy with SSG for a turn 1 Wall, and the nuttiness of multiple Walls with Belcher, you have a deck staple.

Quote from ktkenshinx

The Twin vs. Belcher test was the roughest of my three so far because it was just so unpleasant to play through as the Belcher pilot. But finish it we did and here are the results of those matches. For reference, we used the 1st place Twin list from GP Antwerp, as piloted by Patrick Dickmann. I understand that this is more a Tempo Twin list than a traditional UR Combo Twin list, but it's the FOTM on MTGO and the FOTM in paper, so I think it's representative. Our Belcher list is given below. It's very similar to the list that I used in the Affinity matchup, but I added one maindeck Pithing Needle to give us some game in other matchups. Although it wasn't amazing vs. Twin, it has been very solid in game 1 against Melira Pod and RG Tron, while still having some effect on the Twin matchup. The sideboard was also updated for the games:

Forest Belcher by ktkenshinx (11/12/2013)Magic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards
Lands: 7 6 Snow-Covered Forest 1 Breeding Pool Creatures: 20 4 Chancellor of the Tangle 4 Sakura-Tribe Elder 3 Arbor Elf 3 Birds of Paradise 4 Wall of Roots 3 Simian Spirit Guide Spells: 33 4 Goblin Charbelcher 4 Caravan Vigil 4 Lay of the Land 4 Safewright Quest 4 Recross the Paths 4 Utopia Sprawl 4 Rampant Growth 1 Into the North 2 Fabricate 1 Pithing Needle	Sideboard: 15 2 Spellskite 3 Fog 3 Torpor Orb 3 Nature's Claim 3 Defense Grid 1 Autumn's Veil

We knew we were going to be using Torpor Orb for games 2/3 against Twin because it's the "best" card you can board in against them. Twin players can solve it with Boomerang, Command, or Grudge, but it's a serious enough roadblock that it buys us time to do our own thing. It's also a proactive threat to Twin, not a reactive one, which lets us play it on turn 1 or 2 and then forget about it while we deckthin.

Previous Test: Affinity vs. Forest Belcher
Previous test: BG Souls vs. Forest Belcher

TEST PARAMETERS

As with my other tests, deck pilots started by familiarizing themselves with the lists, running 5 game 1s and 5 games 2/3s before recording results. Belcher also got at least 50 goldfishes just so we understood how the newest list played and mulliganed. Players were experienced Magic slingers with extensive tournament and Modern experience.

For Game 1, preboard, we ran 15 games on the play and 15 on the draw, selecting the player with the most Twin experience for Twin, and the most combo experience for Belcher. For the sake of speed, all 30 games for game 1 were done in Magic Workstation instead of paper; it is much quicker to shuffle in that program, and Belcher has a LOT of shuffle effects. Although this may introduce some odd randomization elements, it is probably no different than the paper matchups (And almost certainly no different from the MTGO ones).

For Game 2, postboard, we also ran 15 games on the play and 15 on the draw. Before we started the postboard games, we played a few sample rounds just to see what cards would be important and how best to sideboard. Our sideboard substitutions are discussed below.

OVERALL RESULTS
Twin is a nightmare. It's about as bad a matchup as you could reasonably have for a deck that is trying to be competitive. In trying to combo out on turn 4, Twin is basically doing the same thing that we are. Except they are way more consistent in doing it, and they can actually interact with our game plan in the process. Games 2/3 were slightly better if only because of Torpor Orb. Ancient Grudge from the Twin board was a big problem when they had it, but we were generally benefiting more from the sideboard than Twin. Still, the game is overall a very bad one for us and it needs some work.

Game 1 win rate: 33% (10/30)
Average game 1 win turn: 5.5

Games 2/3 win rate: 40% (12/30)
Average games 2/3 win turn: 7

The big problem with Twin is speed. Turn 4 wins are the straight up norm in that deck, especially if the Twin pilot doesn't have to worry about interaction. Just being on the draw against Twin is a death sentence, and even on the play we need a good had to race them. Interaction is also a huge problem. While we mess around in thinning our deck and finding Belcher, they can throw all the Remand, Izzet Charm, Cryptic Command, and Vendilion Clique at us that they want. Oh, and both Mite and Exarch tap down our permanents which can be a big problem if we are relying on a Sprawl.

Games 2/3 were better because of Torpor Orb. Every game where I drew Orb was better than a game where I didn't. Even when I lost the game, it was still more winnable with Orb than had I not drawn it. Sure, there were games where Twin had the Grudge in their hand, but they still needed to spend an extra turn killing the Orb before they can combo out. So, at worst, it's like Fog in the Affinity matchup. At best, however, it totally shuts down all their Snappys and Mites and Cliques and stalls them for multiple turns.

My Belcher wins were slower in games 2/3 chiefly because you can never play Belcher without the mana to activate it; with 3 Grudge in the board plus tons of cantrip effects, you can't risk playing Belcher into a Grudge. I also found myself Fabricating for Orb instead of Belcher and then dropping the Orb in the leadup to my main kill card. This didn't always pay off with a win, but it almost always bought more turns.

GAME 1 DISCUSSION
Remember how Affinity was a game you weren't going to win on the draw? It's even worse in Twin. Against Affinity, our on-the-draw win rate was 33% (5/15). Against Twin, it's down to an almost comical 13% (2/15). And one of those wins was because of a lucky Needle. Things are a lot better on the play, especially if you can stick a Belcher under Remand or Charm. Remember: Belcher can blow up creatures too, which can be the difference between life and death.

Game 1 win rate: 33% (10/30)
Game 1 win rate on the play: 53% (8/15)
Game 1 win rate on the draw: 13% (2/15)
Game 1 mulligan rate: 17% (5/30)
Average Belcher win turn: 5.5
Average Twin win turn: 5

I hated playing this game on the draw against Twin. It was intensely frustrating because there was almost nothing you could do. You are basically guaranteed to lose any Twin game where your opponent has either Charm/Remand and Twin + Exarch/Mite, because you can't afford to have a Belcher or Fabricate countered. Heck, you are probably screwed if they just have the Exarch/Mite because that single tapped down land can completely wreck an otherwise productive turn. It's even worse when a Sprawled land gets tapped. Twin is the epitome of the turn 4 deck in Modern, and we are just a half-turn too slow to effectively race them in game 1.

Being on the play was much better. The key here was resolving turn 2-3 Belchers and then using them correctly. Knowing when to Belch an opponent vs. saving the Belcher for a creature is critical. An active Belcher can and will interact with the Twin combo; just be careful of redundant Twin/Kiki effects if the game goes too long.

The other issue with this matchup was when Twin switched to beatdown mode and just won on burn and fliers alone. This didn't happen a lot but it happened enough to leave an impression (4 games in all for game 1). Our chump blockers are pretty useless against Mite and Clique, and Lavamancer is a general pest throughout the game. This was really only relevant when I was slow getting a Belcher out, but it was still something to be careful for

That Lavamancer point merits repetition. This dude is a real pain. Burn is bad enough but recurring burn is just awful. It's games like this that want me to lower our Elf/BoP count, but then again, Lavamancer just doesn't appear enough to overreact that much.

Some tips and reflections on game 1. Sadly, the game is mostly luck (do you go first? Okay, do you have a good hand? Okay, you might win. If not, you probably lose). But these tips can help a little in navigating the game.

• Belching a creature vs. an opponent
This was important against Affinity but it is critical against Twin. As a general rule, I never aimed Belcher at an opponent unless I had 1 land left in the deck AND they had <17 life, or I had zero lands in the deck period. If you miss on Belcher, it's not like you get a chance to chump an Inkmoth with BoP or barely survive a Goyf attack. You miss with Belch and they combo out and you lose outright. It's very hard for non-Boomerang Twin to interact with the resolve Belcher, so just bide your time and wait the extra turn for lethal damage.

• Name "Pestermite" for Needle
Most Twin lists go heavy on Pestermite and light on Exarch; he's just a better beater if you don't have the other half of the combo. Naming Mite gives you about a 50% chance of stopping the combo. Of course, if you already see the resolved Exarch then definitely name him. But otherwise, Needle is just a quick, dirty, and not terribly effective way to hopefully stall the game.

• Cast Belcher as soon as possible
There are two schools of thought when dealing with decks packing counterspells. The first is to wait until you can stack redundant tutors/threats and then try and overwhelm them. The second is to throw caution to the wind and just freely cast into permission, praying that the opponent doesn't have it. In the game 1 Twin case, you always want to be casting Belcher immediately. If your Belcher eats a Remand then it was going to eat it next turn anyway, so you might as well burn through it. Twin only runs 2-3 Charm, so chances are better than not that they don't have one in their hand (especially if you have already seen one as a burn or looting effect). And Command is, well, Command, but you don't need to worry about it until turn 4. Overall, just remember that the only way you are going to win this match is with a bit of luck and aggression. If the game drags out, Twin will beat you down, combo you out, and/or lock you down. Just go for broke in game 1 and hope for the best. Odds tend to be on your side.

• Watch Wall of Roots' toughness
Using Wall to power out a Belcher and then enable a Belcher activation on the next turn is important for winning this match. But that doesn't work if Wall gets too low that a Lavamancer or Charm can blow it up. As a general rule, only use Wall once. Ideally, you don't want to use Wall AT ALL if possible, so you can be guaranteed to use it to cast and activate Belcher without fear of Bolt. But using Wall just once is also okay if you don't care about Bolt and just want to deal with Lava/Charm.

• Don't get frustrated
It's frustrating to lose to Twin on turn 4 with literally zero chance of doing anything. Just shrug, sideboard, shuffle up, and move on with a good attitude.

GAMES 2/3 DISCUSSION
Thank god for Torpor Orb. I don't think I could have sanely made it through another 30 games against Twin without this card, and even in matches where I lost, the games were a lot more interesting and interactive.

Here's how we sideboarded the decks:

Belcher Sideboard:
-1 Needle, -1 Into the North, -2 Rampant Growth
+3 Torpor Orb, +1 Spellskite
Twin Sideboard:
-1 Bolt, -2 Peek, -1 Dispel
+2 Grudge, +1 Lavamancer, +1 Molten Rain

Needle is not a good card in this matchup, even if it is our subpar preboarded answer to the deck in game 1. Orb is much better so we bring in all 3. We also add in Spellskite as a sort of mini-Orb #4 and because, if we get it out, it prevents Lavamancer and burn from massacring our dorks. For Twin, Grudge was an obvious inclusion, and we added in Lavamancer because he was so strong in game 1. We considered going up on the Rain count, but it just isn't good against Belcher unless you also hit a Sprawled land. We have a lot of mana generation as is so you really need to be actively targeting mana as part of your gameplan for it to hurt. Also, Twin does not want to tap out against Belcher, so sorcery-speed Rain wasn't that good.

Games 2/3 win rate: 40% (12/30)
Games 2/3 win rate on the play: 47% (7/15)
Games 2/3 win rate on the draw: 33% (5/15)
Games 2/3 mulligan rate: 20% (6/30)
Average Belcher win turn: 7
Average Affinity win turn: 7
Games where I saw Torpor Orb: 16
Win rate in Orb games: 7/16 (44%)

Overall, games 2/3 were better because of the increased interaction. Games were also won and lost fairly early, depending on how I decided to play my hand. In general, dropping a fast Orb was always better than dropping a fast Belcher. If they have the Grudge, you are going to lose the Belcher anyway. If they don't, you stall them indefinitely while you win with our namesake. But once you are in the game, the games easily drag past turn 7 as you both work to establish an advantage.

The "win rate in Orb games" number, which appears low actually underestimates the importance of this card in the matchup. Many of those games were lost just because I didn't also have a Belcher, even after a half dozen turns of stalling. It felt like bad luck, especially when I had lots of thinning going on simultaneously. Moreover, I can't even imagine how this matchup would have looked if Twin gained Grudge and we didn't gain Orb; that would have been a true 0/30 nightmare.

Some notes and thoughts on the post-sideboard games:

• Never cast Belcher with less than 7 mana
Izzet Charm alone means you can't cast Belcher unless you have 5 mana. Add in Grudge and now you need to cast and activate it on the same turn. With 4 total copies of those cards in the deck, your opponent has about a 50% chance of seeing one of them by turn 3 (especially with their shuffles/cantrips). You do not want to be playing Belcher into a coin toss against Twin in games 2/3. In game 1, you might as well go for it because you weren't winning anyway. But in games 2/3, our added Orbs/Kites give us a lot more interactivity.

• Always drop Orb before Belcher
Turn 1 Orb is a major problem for Twin in this matchup. Turn 2 is bad too. If they have a Grudge in their hand, they were going to use it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with immediately. But if they don't have 1 of their 2-3 Grudges in their hand, then Orb will completely lock down the game. No Clique. No Snappy. No Exarch/Mite. This buys you multiple turns to assemble your combo. As an extension of this, if you can resolve a turn 2 Fabricate, always fetch the Orb. Going turn 2 Fabricate into turn 3 Belcher to see it eat a Remand/Charm/Grudge is game over. But turn 2 Fabricate into turn 3 Orb is much better. If they have Grudge, you were screwed anyway. But if they had Charm/Remand, you can pay the 2 or recast it and stick your artifact.

• Mulligan to Belcher, Fabricate, Recross, Spellskite, and/or Orb
If your hand doesn't have any of these 4 cards in it, then it isn't keepable. You need one of these cards to be in the game. A "playable" 7 card hand without any of these cards is going to be entirely dependent on a lucky topdeck over the next 2 turns. If you miss that topdeck, even the best manaramping hand is going to just lose to Twin's consistency. As long as your hand has at least one of these cards (and, obviously, the mana to use them), then you are good to go. That said, don't mulligan below 5 to find these cards. 4 card hands are losing propositions even with the Orb.

• Don't let Recross get countered
Games 2/3 tend to drag longer because of Orb. That makes Recross the best card in our deck as a 3 mana, painless, multiple-card Vampiric Tutor. A resolved Recross will guarantee you punch through countermagic and/or set up an Orb shield. So don't cast Recross into Command or Charm unless you are baiting the counter for something better like Belcher or Orb.

CONCLUSIONS
I don't see a lot of ways to improve the Twin matchup. Adding black would help (Thoughtseize) is a great catchall for Twin and other matchups). Maybe going up to 4 Orb is the answer, especially if we can justify the added slot because of Twin's prevalence. But there definitely aren't a lot of ways to improve game 1, which means we are already entering games 2/3 at a disadvantage in the match.
I will use this matchup to weigh in on some other cards and strategies that people have been discussing.

Dungrove Elder/Thrun, the Last Troll
In game 1, these cards would be god awful (obviously, but I say it anyway). They don't interact with the Twin gameplan in any way and aren't going to race their strategy unless they have the worst topdeck luck in Magic history. In games 2/3, however, these cards become a bit better. Sticking a turn 1 Orb into a turn 2 Dungrove would be a serious threat for the Twin player. They just don't have the chump blockers to handle that guy, and he clocks you down in roughly 4-5 turns. Orb is always best when paired with an active threat, and perhaps Elder/Thrun could be that active threat in games 2/3. You wouldn't want to ditch all your Belchers for these guys, but you could drop 1 and a few other dudes for your 3-4 beaters. Then again, Elder/Thrun are major dilutions to our gameplan, and maybe what the Twin matchup needs is a more focused gameplan, not a less focused one.

Simian Spirit Guide
Outrageously good in this matchup. Enabled turn 1 Orbs, turn 1/2 Fabricates, tricked them into casting Izzet Charm to counter, and got out turn 2/3 Belchers. 3 is definitely the right number. Too bad we don't have the ape's Elvish counterpart.

Beseech the Queen
I can't think of a tutor I would want less against Twin. We regularly lose BoP to burn which means Beseech is going to cost 6 mana or 5 with a Sprawl. At 5-6 mana, we get majorly shut down by Remand, Izzet Charm, and Snapcaster Mage recursion of those cards. The turn 1-2 Fabricate into a turn 2-3 Orb was a critical play in these games, and Beseech is never going to be cast before turn 3 unless you had a really nutty Arbor Elf/Sprawl opening hand that went unanswered by Bolt. If we went straight BG and added some discard/removal to the board, then sure, I'd ditch the Fabricates for the Beseech. But on the basis of the Twin matchup alone, Beseech is almost always going to be worse than Fabricate.

Arbor Elf/Utopia Sprawl
I have heard some doubts about these cards, either both or one or the other, so let me do away with those. Arbor Elf/Sprawl is nuts if the opponent misses its removal. And even if they do kill the Elf, that's still mana they had to spend during their turn that couldn't go to something else. Of course, if you untap with this 2 card combo in play, you are in business for a huge turn. Twin doesn't have that much removal at its disposal, so I often got to use Elf/Sprawl at least once or twice. Getting an Elf hit by Izzet Charm is also a really good feeling and a real waste for your opponent, even if they have no choice to avoid a 4 mana acceleration. Also, looking to the BGx matchup, Elf threatens a turn 2 Lilly to prevent her from ulting early, and he deters a Bob swing. Finally, we don't want to go too heavy on land-thinning effects because it makes our turn 4+ topdecks worse. Drawing a Gatecreeper/Sylvan Ranger on turn 6 is a terrible feeling. At least Arbor Elf is still adding to our mana and letting us build to a Chancellor, Fabricate --> Belcher, or Belcher --> activation.

Overall, Twin is just one of those bad matchups that we might have to live with. Adding a 4th Orb to the board would help but it wouldn't really "solve" the matchup in the same way that Fog was so crazy against Affinity. The alternate win condition might be the way to go, but it might need to be stronger than just Elder/Thrun.