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Treasure Cruisin' with Mayael the Anima
 
The Magic Market Index for July 21st, 2017
 
Theros: Elspeth's Tragedy
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    @Cantrip: are there deleted posts that weren't noticed? The post number here doesn't match up with the total post number when looking at the thread list
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Wait, you claimed vanilla, never mind, got excited.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from RE1031 »
    Here's a good place to start. Let's talk about why there wasn't a kill last night. Who was the target? We figure that out we have lock town. Was someone blocked? We figure that out we have lock scum. I'm really curious who certain players think would have been the target. What do you think RE?

    Part of the reason why I'm asking Shinichi to post his crier message. It's a really long shot since I doubt roleblocks carry on during the day, but I feel Shinichi could have been roleblocked last night.
    If you RoleBlocked Shinichi, I feel like you should just claim it.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Correction: I also saw interaction tells with Proph, but my worries about him are also starting to fade.

    So who are you interested in lynching? If you are more in the camp that AG's role is null to town.

    Same general question to you Shadow.
    I missed this earlier, but I'm interested in lynching Shinichi as soon as possible. He's both most likely to flip scum, and in the unlikely event that he's town, the earlier we know that, the better for actually figuring out this game, because despite a kill not happening, we don't have a lot of days left if we get it wrong.

    Speaking of, the most probable worlds are one with a doctor and one with a roleblocker (I doubt both), and if we have a doctor STAY SILENT! But if we have a role blocker, I think the 1 for 1 would absolutely be worth it at this point for claiming. There is also the less probable worlds where we have someone who is bullet proof, which I think they should probably stay silent at this point for the WIFOM, or even the chance that "Death guard" is literally a bodyguard that activates upon death, which would be really cool.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Low Fantasy Mafia - Day 1 - The King is Dead!
    Quote from JeY k »
    Shadow posts again in #104, with nothing. Thanks, Shadow!
    You're welcome.
    Quote from JeY k »
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    I hate being caught D1 as scum Crying
    What...is the point with this post?
    Quote from Rhand »
    @Shadow: do you consider yourself good at making jokes?
    I did right up until you posted this, in which case you must not find me funny. Which is kind of annoying, because it means my first part of this post is probably not funny...crap.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    I do realize that, but you also reference "interaction tells" with regard to clearing AG; don't you think the same is true for Shinichi? The only interaction tells I saw were with Wheat, and now that Wheat's flipped Town those are no longer worrisome, since they weren't pocket-type interactions.

    The case against Shinichi has seemed to boil down to him: 1) repeatedly hedging and fence-sitting; and 2) not doing much scum-hunting. But he's seemed to be more of a Town-hunter than a Mafia-hunter, so I'm not personally worried about the latter. I was very much worried about the former and will still be somewhat okay with a lynch based on that, but his end-of-Day actions have mostly convinced me that he's just a hedger as part of his core personality. That sort of mentality would pretty much be a Day One policy lynch for me because it's not helpful for Town, but at this point in the game I can't risk a policy lynch, so I'd need more.
    Shinichi's complete lack of worry with kpaca's early townread on him and saying "He must have seen something that no one else did" is an interaction tell that just screams scum to me. Like regardless of Proph's alignment, that read made no sense and shin just being okay with it looks terrible. As far as him hunting for town...he isn't doing that either, like his strongest townreads he's like "yeah, they could be scum". And he's just inexplicably unable to show any consistency in his reads at all. So sure, my one interaction read is not a whole lot, but any good buddy saw him getting lynched before this game ends and cut ties/made some great theater pretty early. And he doesn't have any interactions that really make him look town either.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Low Fantasy Mafia - Day 1 - The King is Dead!
    Quote from Pa Tennis »
    @shadowlancerx
    The post you made right before I voted you had 2 instances of it. One was eternal, the discussion on which went on at great length. The other was vaimes' lack of rvs vote.

    I'm currently figuring out what exactly constitutes being random or serious in this meta. I'm currently leaning on you being a middle ground between, say, what eternal was doing which was pushing on things that didn't really matter just because you have nothing better to push on. Whereas Rodemy is actually demanding killjoy explain his read on him while saying it's unexplainable because RVS.
    So, because I have no idea when Vaimes will actually be able to answer about it, his lack of an RVS vote is something that, assuming it's his first time, I think is slightly more likely to come from town. Reason behind that being I think if you're going to do something for the first time that you know is considered a scum tell, better to try it first as town.

    As for the Eternal thing, well like you said, it went on at length already and I don't have more to say about it.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Quote from shadowlancerx »

    *snip*
    @Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.

    Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
    Sure, so AG has a history of posting like this, being an easy lynch to push, but there is no actual case on him being scum. Like everything boils down to "he's low impact and his role could be either alignment" which is a terrible case for anyone actually being scum. As far as most other people also not having an agenda, there are other things to look for too. Best I can tell, AG doesn't have any interaction tells that point to him being scum either. Like, I get I was fooled by a similar role before and I'm trying to leave his role out of it as best I can, but behaviorally, AG doesn't look like scum.
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
    My notes on his Day One behavior were that he was trying to fly under the radar, but in retrospect that's equally likely for a Power Role as for scum. Other than that, yes, I haven't seen his behavior as particularly scummy either. It feels like he might be buddied with Quickhoodies, but if that's the case I'd be more comfortable going for QH before AG in order to find out if that's true.

    The only reason I'm okay with pushing AG first is the argument that his ability is better for scum, which I do agree is the case, but I don't know the mod at all, so as far as I know it's quite possible that red herrings like that are common in his setups. Thus, I'm just going with what you all think on that front. What do you think with regard to that particular argument? You seemed particularly interested in reading into the setup design for clues, given your case against Shinichi.
    I wouldn't even call his role a red herring, it works for both alignments, but does something different depending on which alignment it is.

    Also, you realize that my case on Shinichi is founded in his behavior with his role as a secondary issue. If say Grapefruit had the crier role, I'd still think he was town.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Low Fantasy Mafia - Day 1 - The King is Dead!
    Quote from Pa Tennis »
    Oh right. Because apparently on this site you vote randomly to start for an indeterminate period, but all votes must be explained in great detail.

    I voted Jey for talking about going with her intuition when confronted with actual evidence in 96. But in her latest set of posts she talked through it a little.

    I am now voting Blues because the questions he claims help build understanding do not.
    Is this a response to me? Because I really was asking, not trying to discredit your post. If I've done something hypocritical, I'd like to know, it helps me better myself.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Low Fantasy Mafia - Day 1 - The King is Dead!
    Quote from Pa Tennis »
    Rodemy's primary reason for voting people seems to be that he hasn't read their posts. Which is noted I guess.

    The "thing", as mentioned, is random voting while holding people accountable for their random votes from the same time period. Still not quite sure what to make of it. Shadow's was more subtle where Rodemy's was blatant. Lurker sort of did it with his "I wouldn't have voted there if it was later" but that struck me as more pushing on what's there when there wasn't much to go on yet.

    A keystone read is someone who's alignment helps me figure out more people. As of right now, I think Latin is town. As for what that means, I'll have to get back to you.
    would you quote me where you think I'm holding someone accountable for a random vote as opposed to a real vote?
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Low Fantasy Mafia - Day 1 - The King is Dead!
    Quote from Study Latin »
    @Shadow, what did you take away from BE's #102?
    My first impression was that it was good, it pushed the game forward and engaged everyone. But then I went through it again instead of just skimming and most of it is just filler. I kinda still don't mind it, I'm not really seeing an angle or agenda from it.

    Pre-Edit: And his most recent post helps a lot. I have asked questions similarly in the past just to get into someone else's headspace. I like it, I'm happy with where BE is at right now.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    @Grapefruit: to phrase it better, I don't remember really anyone having a "I don't care who we lynch between Wheat/Shinichi," everyone had an opinion of one over the other, and while there was apathy in their conviction, no one was flip flopping back and forth like crazy.
    Why does that make you think that one or the other is scum? That seems...exactly reversed. If one were scum, then any Mafia on the wagons would be trying to focus people onto the Town wagon; if they're both Town, then Maf's happy with either one being lynched. That's a large part of the reason I won't support a Shinichi lynch at the moment.

    Anywho, Vaimes didn't particularly care between the two. And Proph said that Quickhoodies also hedged his bets between the two (although I haven't had time to double-check that yet). Which, again, makes me worry more about those two.
    You literally just said the same thing that I did. Everyone was pushing one way or the other, no one sat in the middle. (I don't remember Vaimes doing so, would you quote him doing so if I missed it?)
    Quote from RE1031 »
    Why was it necessary for @shadow to reveal that Proph was vanilla?
    I can't think of any reason.
    Because
    1. I knew I had no risk of outing a PR
    2. Holding information has the risk of a blowout.
    @Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.
    wrt the "Town Vanilla" thing, I have seen it come up in other games and it literally never matters. We are not in a game where an inexperienced host would make a mistake that cripples the scum team, I'm not willing to clear anyone based on it.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Proph hates endgaming. It's kinda funny actually.

    @Grapefruit: to phrase it better, I don't remember really anyone having a "I don't care who we lynch between Wheat/Shinichi," everyone had an opinion of one over the other, and while there was apathy in their conviction, no one was flip flopping back and forth like crazy.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Low Fantasy Mafia - Day 1 - The King is Dead!
    Eternal, let's talk for a quick moment.

    You have got to stop implying/suggesting/outright saying that other people are bad at this game with the frequency you have been. It's annoying, insulting, and frustrating to deal with. I am not bad at this game; being wrong or doing something outside of the scope of how you expect or believe someone should play does not make them bad.

    Also, why so many bold tags? If you feel that strongly about emphasis on certain words or phrases you're saying, could you try italics instead? It would make it easier to read.
    The indignation levels coming off of EL feel real, which means the odds are he's town or scum who truly doesn't believe my points against him are valid. I'm gonna go ahead and
    Unvote
    for now and disengage before I get trapped in a tunnel war. I don't have the time or energy to dive into everything you said but I do want to specifically ask: What do you mean then, when saying that someone getting defensive is "odd"?
    Quote from JeY k »
    I don't like shadowlancerx either.
    you will, promise Smile
    Quote from Killjoy »
    @Shadow: Your posts 14 and 15. Which of those votes are serious, and which aren't?
    Neither
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Quote from shadowlancerx »
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Ah, good. The game has begun.

    Light townread on Latin. Decent townread on Lurker.
    Potential light scumread on Rodemy.

    Unvote as we're done with RVS.
    Would you get a little more specific with the Lurker read?
    Not yet. I will though.
    I'll hold you to that, because at that point I don't see it.
    Quote from Rodemy »
    @Eternal. I am done talking about it. Clearly you are right and everything i am saying is dumb if interpreted in a certain way. Done. Done Done.
    Cool, Rodemy is town. (For this post and the entire back and forth with Lurker)

    @BlueEclipse: Regarding post 35 and Lurker's serious vote, I'd rank it as slightly more likely to come from scum than town, but it's a small thing when analyzing Lurker.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Busy day, go see Dunkirk, good movie.

    I can confirm both chatting with Proph and receiving AG's shot.

    I hinted in thread yesterday when I decided to chat with Proph. Wanted to take a different approach to it instead of just using it on a town read. Not really convinced it worked, because I'm even more conflicted on his alignment than I was before.

    Overall, I think Proph by himself would probably just be town, but I'm having a hard time getting over kpaca. And I'm a little worried about the eod push over to Wheat as opposed to Shin.

    I didn't reveal receiving the Vanilla cop shot to Proph because (as I'm sure he's probably guessed by this point) I used it on him. He's vanilla, which overall assuages a small portion of my worries regarding him.

    I'm not buying that Wheat and Shinichi were both town wagons, there was almost no apathy between them by anyone, which I would expect if they were. And I'm having trouble even coming up with worlds that make any sense if he's town.

    Vote Shinichil
    Posted in: Mafia
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