If we hit scum day 1, we can kill only one person tomorrow and end up in LyLo in worst case scenario.
If we don't hit scum today, we can use everything tomorrow.
If we hit one scum today then any kill we make tomorrow that doesn’t end the game is confirmed town, no reason to go to night at that point.@Kami: Do you think Osie is town? If no one saves you, do you plan to strike at someone?
@Dawning: Zero Escape was not a game I’d consider to be typical for me or my scum game, just FYI.
For ruma, does he not troll as scum?
And you really don’t have a third player you think has been townie? Like, give me a low confidence read, but give me something.I kind of think Mikey should claim, the good feelings I had for him earlier are just gone.
Yeah I wasn't in the previous lights out game, so referencing it looks like a giant hole in your math. Fine. It looks like the NK was actually messing up all of my math, so more of your assumptions work out than I expected.
However, optimal mechanical play needs to be balanced with actual behavioral analysis. Maximizing our kill-control or number of flips does nothing if we aim our kills wrong.
Here's a scenario. Two people have been killed D1 and you think you have a lock on a scumread. You suspect you might get NKed. Do you take the shot?
No, I don’t. I put my thoughts out there and then end the day. What if my third scum read looks much better on seeing one of the other flips? What if the scum go for the WIFOM kill? What if I’m just wrong and have now caused a loss because I was too sure of myself? (I’ve done this before, to glorious embarrassment)
@Tom: I definitely have a joe/arc both town tinfoil; and even if they’re not, I’m not sure how we’d know. And as much as I could see it as a scum ploy, the fact that AE did get vanilla’d isn’t nothing.
@cantrip: I have played with every other player except Mikey, though I wouldn’t say that’s the relevant info to why I say “in a vacuum”. The phrase is more of a qualifier I use to denote “average play indicator”. Basically “ignoring any specific player meta, this action pings me as a townie action”. Hence why I asked for his background.
WRT Osie, Two takes it Mafia.
Of course I’m trying to pocket you, that was my plan since the sign up thread *cough cough* I mean, nothin’
Actually talk to me about Mikey, if you ignore Anak’s push on him, what’s your read; still holding true? (I’m assuming that’s a factor)
@Kami: I’m basing my assumptions on the pregame and mid game math we did in the previous lights out game, which came to the conclusion that killing 2 people day one is the correct play.
And in general I feel as though I’ve justified it reasonably clearly; killing 2 people day 1 provides the most information available without risking the game being over if we are wrong on all kills. Killing a third (and beyond) player can be done day 2 but with flips to analyze with.
Oops. I missed it. I'ma still need you to explain more though.
Any more than 2 kills on day one significantly lowers towns chance of winning.
Why?
So if we kill more than 2 people, then we are doing so without flip info AND if we whiff it’s an instant loss.
2 kills gives us 2 flips (plus scum night kill) to work with and solve in final 5.
Interesting note though, based on cantrip’s clarification that dead players strikes still resolve, one failed strike does not doom us immediately. (A failed strike and block however do.)
As such, because 3 town deaths day one = game over, I think I’m going to keep my scalpel to end of day to prevent shenanigans.
@Kami: Do you think Osie is town? If no one saves you, do you plan to strike at someone?
For ruma, does he not troll as scum?
And you really don’t have a third player you think has been townie? Like, give me a low confidence read, but give me something.
I kind of think Mikey should claim, the good feelings I had for him earlier are just gone.
WRT Osie, Two takes it Mafia.
Of course I’m trying to pocket you, that was my plan since the sign up thread*cough cough* I mean, nothin’Actually talk to me about Mikey, if you ignore Anak’s push on him, what’s your read; still holding true? (I’m assuming that’s a factor)
And in general I feel as though I’ve justified it reasonably clearly; killing 2 people day 1 provides the most information available without risking the game being over if we are wrong on all kills. Killing a third (and beyond) player can be done day 2 but with flips to analyze with.
2 kills gives us 2 flips (plus scum night kill) to work with and solve in final 5.
Interesting note though, based on cantrip’s clarification that dead players strikes still resolve, one failed strike does not doom us immediately. (A failed strike and block however do.)
As such, because 3 town deaths day one = game over, I think I’m going to keep my scalpel to end of day to prevent shenanigans.