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Treasure Cruisin' with Mayael the Anima
 
The Magic Market Index for July 21st, 2017
 
Theros: Elspeth's Tragedy
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Not quoting because that would be a mess but replying to QH.

    Re me giving Proph a pass. Check out this reads list where I include in him in a group of 4 and say I think there are 2 scum in it. It's not that I'm against lynching him, it's that I think Shin and AG are solid to very good bets to be scum.

    Re AG's role: I think it giving out shots makes it equal or greater likelihood that it's a scum role. Doesn't lessen the scumminess at all. This particular design takes away the main utility it would provide town. And saying it's town for injecting randomness is head scratching to me.

    This is probably a bit OMGUS but the fact that you keep shading me while not providing any evidence is piquing my interest. I kind of think I'm so widely town read that I'm spewed town at this stage. I don't think RE is even scum reading me anymore.

    I find it mildly hilarious that you mention you town read EL for mind melds, but your only two quotes of his you think are wrong. I get that it's because you are only quoting things that needed to be sorted and questioned, but it's still funny to me.

    The fact that you spent a lot of time re-litigating why Wheat is scummy is a huge red flag for me. Feels like trying to avoid blame. If EL hadn't done a bit of that as well I'd vote you right now for it.

    I really like your question to RE.

    Your reply to proph's quotes in spoilers on the other hand I do not. Of course your last stance on Shin matters when your opinion suddenly shifts. It's the same thing you were pointing out at the top of your post as a scum tell in Wheat (who flipped town). You suddenly flipped from defending Shin to being willing to vote him, based on the reasoning of someone who much preferred lynching Wheat... I just don't get it.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from RE1031 »
    How. Why. Damn these quotes.

    I feel you, I've had so many problems with the website lately. Terry too by his earlier post.

    I'm going to try and case AG tomorrow and see if Shadow is right that he's been mostly null.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Regarding interactions that make him look Town, I find it difficult to believe scum-Shin would pass up pushing the Wheat counter-wagon at the end of the Day when it's basically Shinichi or Wheat. (Wheat's immediate and remorseless willingness to do that, after claiming Shinichi was a hard-Town-read for him, was part of why I'm so salty that he was Town.)

    I've emphasized that EoD incident a few times now, and it seems a strong argument to me, but I'll also readily admit that it's one of the few arguments in Shinichi's favor, so I might be giving it too much weight.

    Like it's factually correct to vote the other wagon regardless of alignment. Plus Wheat was clearly tilted towards the end so I'm not surprised by that at all in retrospect. With Shin it's just hard to say as he hasn't done anything I'd expect from either alignment.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Correction: I also saw interaction tells with Proph, but my worries about him are also starting to fade.

    So who are you interested in lynching? If you are more in the camp that AG's role is null to town.

    Same general question to you Shadow.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    What good is a role claim if you're claiming a scummy ability that hurts the town each time it's used?

    Because people will argue about whether or not it is scummy. And some people (like you) will try to give him town credit for it.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Quote from shadowlancerx »

    *snip*
    @Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.

    Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
    I think this is what bothered me so much about EL yesterday. It seemed like he had an agenda. I'd like to hear more about what you view QH's agenda as.

    He pushed the lynch towards Wheat before EL took it up. Dedicated one of the giant walls to it. And D1 took a strong anti stance before the no lynch. Refused to lynch Kpaca and Rhand (and iirc was also against the Shin train). Could be picky town, could be scum not wanting to join a wagon that will draw further attention.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from shadowlancerx »

    *snip*
    @Grape: I think AG is town, his behavior hasn't been really scummy despite what people keep saying (go read his iso), and I'm not seeing an agenda. I also think his use of his ability has been very much what I'd expect him to do as town.

    Can you go into the case a bit more. I understand lack of agenda is usually an okay town tell, but given the lack of flips I'm having trouble pointing out anyone with an agenda except QH and EL. And while I agree his PR use matches up pretty well with town, it has a narrow enough band of use that it falls safely within what I'd expect scum to do with it as well.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    To clarify, my #1610 was directed towards RE cuz I didn't see your two immediately-preceding posts until after I posted, so I think that's where our confusion arose. I agree with your statements; they just weren't relevant to mine at the time. :p

    AHhh I think that is where my confusion is coming from. I thought it was directed at me.

    I could quibble with a few of your replies in the quote wall we had, but overall we are in agreement here.
    Quote from AtheistGod »
    How is it the correct play for Vaimes and Shadow to play against their wincon? It can't simultaneously be bad for town to reveal and the "correct play" for town to reveal. Only one of those statements can be true.

    Obviously the mafia would be trying to kill me harder if I was granting alignment cop shots, but that doesn't make me scum. My role not being as strong as an alignment cop isn't a condemnation. I didn't get to choose how powerful my role is.

    You also seem to be missing the fact that scum are very unlikely to shoot the person that "should be first priority tomorrow". Scum want the mislynch.

    The correct play for an individual is not always in line with the correct play for town. As an individual with information like that you are incentivized to out it, even if that is not largely beneficial for town.


    I reread QH and there were a lot of words, but not a lot of meat. I would be interested in exploring his Lynch. Let's talk about AG for a minute. His ability screams scum to me. His play has been less than townie. I have mislynched him recently, so I hesitate to jump on him again. We know his ability is real.

    I'm with you so far Terry.
    So if he is scum, how does he benefit from giving that ability to anyone but scum? If he is giving the ability to scum there is no reason for any of them to claim it. Why would scum-AG give the ability to non-scum players? None of it makes sense if AG is scum. AG is town. This does NOT clear Shadow or Vaimes at all.

    And you lose me completely here. There are multiple reasons why scum would give the shot to town. I think it's actually a better play for scum to give it to town and have been walling back and forth with EL about that this entire page. I think I make the clearest argument in the last section of 1618. That said I do completely agree it says absolutely nothing about Shadow or Vaimes' alignment at this stage. With a scum flip I would revisit it in closer detail, but that's not worth doing now.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from Prophylaxis »
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Ohhh and just for the record right now QuickHoodies has exactly 1 more post than Kpaca. I would guess 5-6 times the words, but only one more post.
    Hence why I want more pressure on them.

    (Will get to QH reasoning soon, just been fairly busy)

    I'm not in disagreement. Just think AG is more obviously scum.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Ohhh and just for the record right now QuickHoodies has exactly 1 more post than Kpaca. I would guess 5-6 times the words, but only one more post.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    I just don't get anything you're saying right now. First off we just had a night with no kill and you're saying you strongly don't believe there was a protective role alive?
    Well, I didn't wanna spread fear, but since you're asking me about it...I'm not familiar with the sorts of setups this forum uses and how difficult they like to make things for Town, but hypothetically, if there were four Mafia instead of three, a no-kill last Night would've been the proper call. Because it means a mislynch toDay is a probable loss toNight.

    I would be floored if there were 4 scum in a 12 person game (also I completely disagree with your proposed line of play being ideal, but that is neither here nor there). But again it is really strange to me that you immediately assumed we had no protective left, despite the no NK.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Second I strongly agree both sides are motivated to share the results of AG's shot. I just think it's leaps and bounds more valuable for scum to do so. Scum narrows their PoE to shoot into, while town gets to force people to accurately claim vanilla or power. One of those is much more valuable than the other.
    But...that doesn't make any sense. Scum narrow their PoE regardless of whether or not they share the results publically, because they'll just share the results at Night.

    Scum often doesn't have a day chat on mtgs. It's not a hard and fast rule, but an often one. If that were true in this case scum wouldn't be able to share the result with their team till the following night given they won't receive the result until morning.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    And AG being alive strongly suggests the scum team feels the same way. If they were worried about his ability they would have killed him and limited the damage. You better believe if he was a alignment cop shot giver he'd be dead on the ground right now.
    Again, you're conflating "who benefits more from the info" with "who is more likely to reveal the info". It's debatable who benefits more, but it's definitely arguable that Mafia do, and yes, they certainly think that's true since they haven't shot him yet. However, when someone has that information anyway, it's not a scum-tell for that person to reveal the results, because scum could just share the info silently at Night anyway.

    Essentially, the paradox here is that the only way Mafia benefits from someone publically revealing the results is if the person revealing them is Town. Mafia doesn't benefit from revealing the results cuz they'll already be able to discuss the results at Night. So, even if you consider Cop-shot result reveals to be anti-Town behavior, it's anti-Town behavior that can only come from Town. (Or it's totally null behavior that comes from scum blending in.) So revealing still ends up being the right play.

    I have stated repeatedly that I think both alignments are incentivized to share the info. And I am not reading Shadow or Vaimes by their choice to reveal it. I am stressing that this (despite it being the right play) does not help town. At all. And that is a huge part of why I think AG is scum.

    You are so focused on the motivation of the person revealing it that you are missing my point about the role as a whole. Even if scum has day chat and could share the results while keeping it quiet it does not hurt them at all to go public with it, because town gains so little from the knowledge being public. So when people say why would scum!AG give the shot to town!Vaimes I say that the opportunity cost to do so is practically zero. Because it makes the most sense for scum to have the results be public (so AG can true claim and not face questions of why haven't people been announcing the results) it also offers the scum team more protection from potential roleblockers.

    All of this is on top of the fact that I don't think a single person in the game is town reading AG and he really needs to be lynched. He's as much a question mark as Shin is at this stage, but with a role that is doing more harm than good to town.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Oh, I think I get what you're saying. I thought you were implying that Mafia-shadow would reveal the info and Town-shadow wouldn't, which makes no sense to me because a Mafia player is far less likely to reveal information that he can just share with his friends in Night-chat. But you're actually just saying that you disagree with the choice to reveal the result even if it comes from Town-shadow, right? I can see that line, but unfortunately, because a Mafia player wouldn't reveal the info, a Town player kind of has to reveal to avoid being scum-read. (And, therefore, so does a Mafia player, to avoid being scum-read.)

    It's still better for Town for the most part anyway, though, especially since I don't believe there's a second protective role. Rhand was almost certainly protective, given his role's name.

    I just don't get anything you're saying right now. First off we just had a night with no kill and you're saying you strongly don't believe there was a protective role alive?

    Second I strongly agree both sides are motivated to share the results of AG's shot. I just think it's leaps and bounds more valuable for scum to do so. Scum narrows their PoE to shoot into, while town gets to force people to accurately claim vanilla or power. One of those is much more valuable than the other. And AG being alive strongly suggests the scum team feels the same way. If they were worried about his ability they would have killed him and limited the damage. You better believe if he was a alignment cop shot giver he'd be dead on the ground right now. (assuming he wasn't protected last night, but given the utter lack of town reads on him I find that a stretch)
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Quote from RE1031 »
    The vanilla cop shot is really only useful to scum, and the only time it's useful to town is when trying to catch someone in a fake claim, and that's not happening now that the shot's been revealed to exist.
    ...You're totally contradicting yourself. As you just said, there's no use trying to catch someone in a fake claim now that the shot's existence is known. Therefore, what's the point in shadow hiding information?

    Narrowing down the PR pool for scum to shoot into? Which RE said in that same post.

    I agree that we should be revealing this information. It's just convincing me more and more that AG is scum.

    Vote: AG
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Quote from RE1031 »
    The vanilla cop shot is really only useful to scum, and the only time it's useful to town is when trying to catch someone in a fake claim, and that's not happening now that the shot's been revealed to exist.
    ...You're totally contradicting yourself. As you just said, there's no use trying to catch someone in a fake claim now that the shot's existence is known. Therefore, what's the point in shadow hiding information?

    Narrowing down the PR pool for scum to shoot into? Which RE said in that same post.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Silence of the Lambs - D3: No Man Down
    Quote from EternalLurker »
    Can the two of you each please explain in detail why you came out of your Night-Chats with SL so convinced that he's Town? I was already worried that he was acting like he was pocketing GF (said so in my reads list which GF requested), so last Night's events have greatly exacerbated my concerns.

    I went into detail on my chat with Shadow here.

    Plus he's saying Dunkirk is a good movie so he has to be town. But then again he didn't urge IMAX so he must be scum.

    @Shadow what do you mean by no apathy? I felt like there was some serious reluctance on the Shin wagon. And a little bit on the Wheat one.
    Posted in: Mafia
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