they won't unban bloodbraid... or visions... or preordain for a long time, and some of those probably will never come off the list
bloodbraid because they just banned it 2 sets ago and the kind of deck that would play it is still the majority of the field in the format
visions because it would provide blue decks with a good mid game card advantage engine (something they haven't been very keen on doing in the format)
preordain because it goes into every deck ever that could potentially violate the turn 3 rule and finkel top 16ing the most recent gp w/ a pyromancer's ascension deck despite all the hate they've put on steam vents combo decks probably doesn't help preordain's case much (i'm aware it goes in basically ever deck fair or unfair that could play it but i don't think they'd unban it given their track record so far)
i expect in 5 years the b&r list to be shorter. each year provides new hate cards as well as enablers,
There's no reason to expect this.
Having hate exist has not stopped them from banning cards.
And they've shown very little inclination to take cards off the banned list.
To be honest, I have no idea what criteria WotC uses to define as a top-tier deck.
They consult the ancient left eye of Nog. The jewel worshiped by the wizards of Mu and the black priests of Atlantis which was finally passed down to Gung the Magnificent who was chosen by the gods to ban the world is finally ...oh it's not a jewel, it's a dirty old piece of crap.
I wouldn't think so because of the Modern Pro Tour being rescheduled to December.
There will be a B&R update when M14 comes out. There always is. That doesn't mean that anything in Modern will change (probably not if Modern season is over) but there will be an update. I expect it to have no changes across all formats.
that doesn't matter. there's an update to the b/r list across all formats every new set release.
I think the reasoning is that we only have 1 more major modern tournament before that (GP:KC) and other than that, modern isn't going to be seeing a whole lot of play.
GP:KC is on July 5th-7th.
The banning would become effective July 19th.
Assuming there is currently no smoking gun they feel they need to resolve, they would only be banning something if GP:KC brought something serious to light or reinforced something they are already watching.
The gap between announcement and effective date of the last ban was 11 days (April 22nd to May 3rd).
11 days before July 19th would be July 8th. The Monday immediately after GP:KC.
They could buckle down that day, resolve on a course of action, write it up, and announce it that day. But it just seems less than likely.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I support WotC's goal of shaping Modern in favor of diversity.
I ran a thought experiment on my blog Modern in a Nuclear Wasteland
of an extreme case of banning 20 more cards to make sure they get everything, then scaling back where appropriate. WotC seems to be on a slowly build up approach. Both ways probably reach similar end points.
The post Gatecrash metagame is proving to be closer to the endpoint than I estimated, so its very possible that few (if any) more cards need to be banned.
Unless something bizarre happens, I don't expect any changes w/ M14. Format's healthy.
I could see a GGT unban just to appease the unruly masses. But it's probably more likely that Wizards does any major unbannings in September at the anniversary of the format's birth. That said, having some unbans alongside the Modern Master's release would also be a strong public relations move, just to try and encourage further format growth.
I could see a GGT unban just to appease the unruly masses. But it's probably more likely that Wizards does any major unbannings in September at the anniversary of the format's birth. That said, having some unbans alongside the Modern Master's release would also be a strong public relations move, just to try and encourage further format growth.
Unbans that aren't in MM happening just after MM = awkward move.
I think the reasoning is that we only have 1 more major modern tournament before that (GP:KC) and other than that, modern isn't going to be seeing a whole lot of play.
GP:KC is on July 5th-7th.
The banning would become effective July 19th.
Assuming there is currently no smoking gun they feel they need to resolve, they would only be banning something if GP:KC brought something serious to light or reinforced something they are already watching.
The gap between announcement and effective date of the last ban was 11 days (April 22nd to May 3rd).
11 days before July 19th would be July 8th. The Monday immediately after GP:KC.
They could buckle down that day, resolve on a course of action, write it up, and announce it that day. But it just seems less than likely.
yeah. i'm not saying they'll unban something, but there'll be a list update before the fall.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I speak in sarcasm because calling people ******* ******** is not allowed.
It would be really nice if they decided to unban something this summer, while people and the format have time to adopt and adapt to the change prior to the next PTQ season.
Maybe they could unban Seething Song, just to correct the mistake they made last season. Golgari Grave-Troll is probably another "safe" choice. However, anyone hedging their bets on them unbanning Ponder and/or Preordain is completely loco.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
In my dream, the world had suffered a terrible disaster. A black haze shut out the sun, and the darkness was alive with the moans and screams of wounded people. Suddenly, a small light glowed. A candle flickered into life, symbol of hope for millions. A single tiny candle, shining in the ugly dark. I laughed and blew it out.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
It would be really nice if they decided to unban something this summer, while people and the format have time to adopt and adapt to the change prior to the next PTQ season.
Maybe they could unban Seething Song, just to correct the mistake they made last season. Golgari Grave-Troll is probably another "safe" choice. However, anyone hedging their bets on them unbanning Ponder and/or Preordain is completely loco.
Just because you see it as a mistake, doesnt mean Wotc does.
Just because you see it as a mistake, doesnt mean Wotc does.
Very true indeed. Still a mistake though...
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
In my dream, the world had suffered a terrible disaster. A black haze shut out the sun, and the darkness was alive with the moans and screams of wounded people. Suddenly, a small light glowed. A candle flickered into life, symbol of hope for millions. A single tiny candle, shining in the ugly dark. I laughed and blew it out.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
Maybe they could unban Seething Song, just to correct the mistake they made last season. Golgari Grave-Troll is probably another "safe" choice. However, anyone hedging their bets on them unbanning Ponder and/or Preordain is completely loco.
Unbanning Seething Song would benefit an Archetype otherwise unrepresented among the current set of top tier decks, similar to what was used as the justification when Valakut was unbanned. Finkel played Storm, but he was the outlier, not the norm.
GGT is safe and should have been unbanned when Dread Return was banned at the first update.
It is potentially even safer to unban cards that can be interacted with using graveyard hate - Seething Song, Grave-Troll, and Sword of the Meek - if the rumored reprint of Scavenging Ooze in M14 is correct. Maindeckable solutions like it and Deathrite Shaman should go a long way towards regulating graveyard-based strategies that have historically had a high power-level when unopposed.
I am curious as to why you suggest that Ponder and/or Preordain would not be safe to unban?
I view their bannings as a mistake not unlike the mistake made in banning Seething Song and can't find a deck that would abuse them to do fundamentally unfair things. Rite of Flame was the most likely culprit behind U/R combos over-performing at PT Philly, which was cited as the reason for their banning at the time. Consistency was claimed to be the issue, but without Seething Song (or with more graveyard hate in the format) Storm is no longer putting up good performances, and Twin can no longer win on turn 3 because Rite of Flame is now banned.
Unfortunately, WotC was a little heavy-handed and banned many things at once instead of hitting Rite of Flame first and later revisiting Ponder/Preordain if the problem persisted. The color distribution analysis Traveler compiled indicates that blue is under-represented compared to other colors...Ponder/Preordain, Ancestral Vision, or Jace would go a long way towards incentivizing blue, and Ponder or Preordain is probably the safest choice among those three, although strong arguments can be made for AV as well.
There will be a B&R update when M14 comes out. There always is. That doesn't mean that anything in Modern will change (probably not if Modern season is over) but there will be an update. I expect it to have no changes across all formats.
I understand that scheduled releases are synchronized with B&R updates, last Modern Pro Tour had an announcement with the unbanning of Scapeshift to add new decks to the metagame.
They generally don't want a full metagame to develop 6 months before the Pro Tour. It's a good strategy to part-take in on Wizards end of things.
They generally don't want a full metagame to develop 6 months before the Pro Tour. It's a good strategy to part-take in on Wizards end of things.
A very good point. It's actually more interesting to follow coverage when it's like that.
EDIT (on Ponder & Preordain): These card give a significant leg up to control decks, as well as combination decks packing blue that other aggressive strategies couldn't possibly hope to match. The only green card that could have hoped to match their efficiency was Green Sun Zenith, but that card was banned right along with them. Birthing Pod doesn't even have a prayer.
If you want to boost control decks unban Ancestral Vision.
If you want to boost storm based combo unban Seething Song.
Bringing back either Ponder or Preordain at this point is a really bad move that would cause an unprecedented shift in the Modern metagame towards combo. I love playing with both of these cards, but for Modern's sake I hope thay stay on the banned list.
In my dream, the world had suffered a terrible disaster. A black haze shut out the sun, and the darkness was alive with the moans and screams of wounded people. Suddenly, a small light glowed. A candle flickered into life, symbol of hope for millions. A single tiny candle, shining in the ugly dark. I laughed and blew it out.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
A very good point. It's actually more interesting to follow coverage when it's like that.
EDIT (on Ponder & Preordain): These card give a significant leg up to control decks, as well as combination decks packing blue that other aggressive strategies couldn't possibly hope to match. The only green card that could have hoped to match their efficiency was Green Sun Zenith, but that card was banned right along with them. Birthing Pod doesn't even have a prayer.
If you want to boost control decks unban Ancestral Vision.
If you want to boost storm based combo unban Seething Song.
Bringing back either Ponder or Preordain at this point is a really bad move that would cause an unprecedented shift in the Modern metagame towards combo. I love playing with both of these cards, but for Modern's sake I hope thay stay on the banned list.
The biggest issue with Ponder and Preordain is that there's such a critical mass of these effects in the format. Sleight of Hand and Serum Visions are already 8 such spells, and Gitaxian Probe brings you to 12. With Ponder and Preordain in the format, that's 20 filter effects, and with 20 lands, it makes a combo that takes up 12 slots look less like 1/5 of your deck and more like 3/5 of your deck. Not to mention that Preordain and Ponder immediately dig three cards deep, so it's even more consistent in practice.
The biggest issue with Ponder and Preordain is that there's such a critical mass of these effects in the format. Sleight of Hand and Serum Visions are already 8 such spells, and Gitaxian Probe brings you to 12. With Ponder and Preordain in the format, that's 20 filter effects, and with 20 lands, it makes a combo that takes up 12 slots look less like 1/5 of your deck and more like 3/5 of your deck. Not to mention that Preordain and Ponder immediately dig three cards deep, so it's even more consistent in practice.
The problem is that both Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand are below an acceptable power level, if such a combo were to exist that only took 10 card slots and 20+ cantrips then I would believe the combo would need to be examined as whether or not to be allowed in this format. Because this combo would be easily interacted with and have no protection; therefore already stronger than twin/pod, and it would also require direct interaction of counterspells to be ban worthy; therefore better than storm/eggs.
You also forgot to mention Peek and Thoughtscour.
TLDR; If a combo deck used 20+ cantrips then the combo would be the problem in this format not the cantrips.
The problem is that both Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand are below an acceptable power level, if such a combo were to exist that only took 10 card slots and 20+ cantrips then I would believe the combo would need to be examined as whether or not to be allowed in this format. Because this combo would be easily interacted with and have no protection; therefore already stronger than twin/pod, and it would also require direct interaction of counterspells to be ban worthy; therefore better than storm/eggs.
You also forgot to mention Peek and Thoughtscour.
TLDR; If a combo deck used 20+ cantrips then the combo would be the problem in this format not the cantrips.
Without a critical mass of cantrips, there is no way you pull that off by turn 4. But with them, it is quite possible.
Multi card "true" combos (not storm decks) need as much dig power as they can get if they have to have every piece in order to go off, something UR Storm doesn't need. All it needs is enough spells cast in a turn and an EtW or GS to go off. But the above combo needs 3 very specific cards. Not easy to pull off without a ton of dig. And even then the odds of pulling it off aren't nearly as good as grapeshoting somebody for 20 or dumping 14 goblin tokens.
This is why when most people talk about hating combo, they're really talking about hating storm. I don't think too many people would be all that ticked off if you managed to pull off a 3 card combo like the one above, especially if there was no way it could go off before turn 4 or 5.
The problem is that both Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand are below an acceptable power level, if such a combo were to exist that only took 10 card slots and 20+ cantrips then I would believe the combo would need to be examined as whether or not to be allowed in this format. Because this combo would be easily interacted with and have no protection; therefore already stronger than twin/pod, and it would also require direct interaction of counterspells to be ban worthy; therefore better than storm/eggs.
You also forgot to mention Peek and Thoughtscour.
TLDR; If a combo deck used 20+ cantrips then the combo would be the problem in this format not the cantrips.
Neither Peek nor Thought Scour "dig" like the others do (with the exception of G-Probe, but G-Probe is "free" if you're planning on winning before life totals become relevant). They may make your deck "X cards less", but that's not as worth it if you have to spend your mana doing so.
And even with the combo taking 10 slots, that still leaves 10 slots free for protection (20 lands, 20 dig). Splinter Twin used to be a REALLY good deck (to "broken") with Ponder and Preordain, as it could spend all the early game finding the cards it needed to win. Even now it tries to do the same with Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand, but without the really powerful effects (that it would run in addition to Visions/Sleight), it's just a decently good combo deck that's a positive addition to the metagame as a whole.
I'd much rather Splinter Twin exist without Ponder/Preordain, rather than Ponder/Preordain not really opening up new decks in the way that Splinter Twin did. Also, with that much redundancy you have to start worrying about even the most "base" of combos, like Blistercoil, etc. They add too much redundancy than is good for the format.
Without a critical mass of cantrips, there is no way you pull that off by turn 4. But with them, it is quite possible.
Multi card "true" combos (not storm decks) need as much dig power as they can get if they have to have every piece in order to go off, something UR Storm doesn't need. All it needs is enough spells cast in a turn and an EtW or GS to go off. But the above combo needs 3 very specific cards. Not easy to pull off without a ton of dig. And even then the odds of pulling it off aren't nearly as good as grapeshoting somebody for 20 or dumping 14 goblin tokens.
This is why when most people talk about hating combo, they're really talking about hating storm. I don't think too many people would be all that ticked off if you managed to pull off a 3 card combo like the one above, especially if there was no way it could go off before turn 4 or 5.
For what it's worth, switch the Alter with a Blasting Station and you have Modern Pebbles. Just saying.
For what it's worth, switch the Alter with a Blasting Station and you have Modern Pebbles. Just saying.
Hey, that's pretty cool. I just may put this piece of crap deck together.
At least I don't have to worry about it doing well and getting banned.
Seriously, how is Modern Pebbles doing? Is it a real deck? Does it put up any kind of numbers at all? Is it even on WotC's radar? I'd hate to put this thing together and have it be for nothing.
The biggest issue with Ponder and Preordain is that there's such a critical mass of these effects in the format. [...] With Ponder and Preordain in the format, that's 20 filter effects [...]
How many decks would realistically run the full complement of Ponder, Preordain, Sleight of Hand, Serum Visions, and G-Probe? Twin is probably the best candidate unless a weird cantrip only combo pops up, but I doubt Splinter Twin would run ALL of them. Twin needs to accommodate 15-16 cards for the combo depending on how many Kiki-Jiki's they run, plus should run a little bit of protection for the combo and enough lands to consistently hit 4 land on T4 if its worried about speed. That doesn't leave much room for extra cantrips though.
I suppose PyroStorm using the Manamorphose/Noxious Revival loop would run 16 cantrips between Thought Scour, G-Probe, Ponder and Preordain, but this isn't any more than the current set up, just a substitution of P&P for Sleight and Visions. The Thought Scour is there as a kill condition for milling that just happens to help dig in the early game or fill the 'yard to activate Ascension.
Realistically, most decks would probably opt for some number between 4-10 cantrips depending on space and combos might use up to 16 in extreme cases but that's no worse than what we see already. If there's a 20 cantrip deck out there without compromising on resilience or combo protection, I'd like to see it.
Besides, if a deck got 'too consistent' at winning before T4, its either the combo itself that's the issue or a weird metagame imbalance created by a lack of viable control decks that can check it. Cantrips don't accelerate you, so they don't actually 'speed up' a deck.
bloodbraid because they just banned it 2 sets ago and the kind of deck that would play it is still the majority of the field in the format
visions because it would provide blue decks with a good mid game card advantage engine (something they haven't been very keen on doing in the format)
preordain because it goes into every deck ever that could potentially violate the turn 3 rule and finkel top 16ing the most recent gp w/ a pyromancer's ascension deck despite all the hate they've put on steam vents combo decks probably doesn't help preordain's case much (i'm aware it goes in basically ever deck fair or unfair that could play it but i don't think they'd unban it given their track record so far)
I wouldn't think so because of the Modern Pro Tour being rescheduled to December.
that doesn't matter. there's an update to the b/r list across all formats every new set release.
There's no reason to expect this.
Having hate exist has not stopped them from banning cards.
And they've shown very little inclination to take cards off the banned list.
Yes. Why wouldn't it be?
They consult the ancient left eye of Nog. The jewel worshiped by the wizards of Mu and the black priests of Atlantis which was finally passed down to Gung the Magnificent who was chosen by the gods to ban the world is finally ...oh it's not a jewel, it's a dirty old piece of crap.
There will be a B&R update when M14 comes out. There always is. That doesn't mean that anything in Modern will change (probably not if Modern season is over) but there will be an update. I expect it to have no changes across all formats.
I think the reasoning is that we only have 1 more major modern tournament before that (GP:KC) and other than that, modern isn't going to be seeing a whole lot of play.
GP:KC is on July 5th-7th.
The banning would become effective July 19th.
Assuming there is currently no smoking gun they feel they need to resolve, they would only be banning something if GP:KC brought something serious to light or reinforced something they are already watching.
The gap between announcement and effective date of the last ban was 11 days (April 22nd to May 3rd).
11 days before July 19th would be July 8th. The Monday immediately after GP:KC.
They could buckle down that day, resolve on a course of action, write it up, and announce it that day. But it just seems less than likely.
I ran a thought experiment on my blog
Modern in a Nuclear Wasteland
of an extreme case of banning 20 more cards to make sure they get everything, then scaling back where appropriate. WotC seems to be on a slowly build up approach. Both ways probably reach similar end points.
The post Gatecrash metagame is proving to be closer to the endpoint than I estimated, so its very possible that few (if any) more cards need to be banned.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
I could see a GGT unban just to appease the unruly masses. But it's probably more likely that Wizards does any major unbannings in September at the anniversary of the format's birth. That said, having some unbans alongside the Modern Master's release would also be a strong public relations move, just to try and encourage further format growth.
Unbans that aren't in MM happening just after MM = awkward move.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Maybe they'll time the announcement with the big reveal?
yeah. i'm not saying they'll unban something, but there'll be a list update before the fall.
It would be really nice if they decided to unban something this summer, while people and the format have time to adopt and adapt to the change prior to the next PTQ season.
Maybe they could unban Seething Song, just to correct the mistake they made last season. Golgari Grave-Troll is probably another "safe" choice. However, anyone hedging their bets on them unbanning Ponder and/or Preordain is completely loco.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
Just because you see it as a mistake, doesnt mean Wotc does.
Very true indeed. Still a mistake though...
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
Unbanning Seething Song would benefit an Archetype otherwise unrepresented among the current set of top tier decks, similar to what was used as the justification when Valakut was unbanned. Finkel played Storm, but he was the outlier, not the norm.
GGT is safe and should have been unbanned when Dread Return was banned at the first update.
It is potentially even safer to unban cards that can be interacted with using graveyard hate - Seething Song, Grave-Troll, and Sword of the Meek - if the rumored reprint of Scavenging Ooze in M14 is correct. Maindeckable solutions like it and Deathrite Shaman should go a long way towards regulating graveyard-based strategies that have historically had a high power-level when unopposed.
I am curious as to why you suggest that Ponder and/or Preordain would not be safe to unban?
I view their bannings as a mistake not unlike the mistake made in banning Seething Song and can't find a deck that would abuse them to do fundamentally unfair things. Rite of Flame was the most likely culprit behind U/R combos over-performing at PT Philly, which was cited as the reason for their banning at the time. Consistency was claimed to be the issue, but without Seething Song (or with more graveyard hate in the format) Storm is no longer putting up good performances, and Twin can no longer win on turn 3 because Rite of Flame is now banned.
Unfortunately, WotC was a little heavy-handed and banned many things at once instead of hitting Rite of Flame first and later revisiting Ponder/Preordain if the problem persisted. The color distribution analysis Traveler compiled indicates that blue is under-represented compared to other colors...Ponder/Preordain, Ancestral Vision, or Jace would go a long way towards incentivizing blue, and Ponder or Preordain is probably the safest choice among those three, although strong arguments can be made for AV as well.
Speculate less. Test more.
I understand that scheduled releases are synchronized with B&R updates, last Modern Pro Tour had an announcement with the unbanning of Scapeshift to add new decks to the metagame.
They generally don't want a full metagame to develop 6 months before the Pro Tour. It's a good strategy to part-take in on Wizards end of things.
A very good point. It's actually more interesting to follow coverage when it's like that.
EDIT (on Ponder & Preordain): These card give a significant leg up to control decks, as well as combination decks packing blue that other aggressive strategies couldn't possibly hope to match. The only green card that could have hoped to match their efficiency was Green Sun Zenith, but that card was banned right along with them. Birthing Pod doesn't even have a prayer.
If you want to boost control decks unban Ancestral Vision.
If you want to boost storm based combo unban Seething Song.
Bringing back either Ponder or Preordain at this point is a really bad move that would cause an unprecedented shift in the Modern metagame towards combo. I love playing with both of these cards, but for Modern's sake I hope thay stay on the banned list.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
The biggest issue with Ponder and Preordain is that there's such a critical mass of these effects in the format. Sleight of Hand and Serum Visions are already 8 such spells, and Gitaxian Probe brings you to 12. With Ponder and Preordain in the format, that's 20 filter effects, and with 20 lands, it makes a combo that takes up 12 slots look less like 1/5 of your deck and more like 3/5 of your deck. Not to mention that Preordain and Ponder immediately dig three cards deep, so it's even more consistent in practice.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
The problem is that both Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand are below an acceptable power level, if such a combo were to exist that only took 10 card slots and 20+ cantrips then I would believe the combo would need to be examined as whether or not to be allowed in this format. Because this combo would be easily interacted with and have no protection; therefore already stronger than twin/pod, and it would also require direct interaction of counterspells to be ban worthy; therefore better than storm/eggs.
You also forgot to mention Peek and Thoughtscour.
TLDR; If a combo deck used 20+ cantrips then the combo would be the problem in this format not the cantrips.
It really depends on the combo. I know this isn't modern legal but what if you had a 3 card combo of Enduring Renewal, Altar of Dementia and Cathodion?
Without a critical mass of cantrips, there is no way you pull that off by turn 4. But with them, it is quite possible.
Multi card "true" combos (not storm decks) need as much dig power as they can get if they have to have every piece in order to go off, something UR Storm doesn't need. All it needs is enough spells cast in a turn and an EtW or GS to go off. But the above combo needs 3 very specific cards. Not easy to pull off without a ton of dig. And even then the odds of pulling it off aren't nearly as good as grapeshoting somebody for 20 or dumping 14 goblin tokens.
This is why when most people talk about hating combo, they're really talking about hating storm. I don't think too many people would be all that ticked off if you managed to pull off a 3 card combo like the one above, especially if there was no way it could go off before turn 4 or 5.
Neither Peek nor Thought Scour "dig" like the others do (with the exception of G-Probe, but G-Probe is "free" if you're planning on winning before life totals become relevant). They may make your deck "X cards less", but that's not as worth it if you have to spend your mana doing so.
And even with the combo taking 10 slots, that still leaves 10 slots free for protection (20 lands, 20 dig). Splinter Twin used to be a REALLY good deck (to "broken") with Ponder and Preordain, as it could spend all the early game finding the cards it needed to win. Even now it tries to do the same with Serum Visions and Sleight of Hand, but without the really powerful effects (that it would run in addition to Visions/Sleight), it's just a decently good combo deck that's a positive addition to the metagame as a whole.
I'd much rather Splinter Twin exist without Ponder/Preordain, rather than Ponder/Preordain not really opening up new decks in the way that Splinter Twin did. Also, with that much redundancy you have to start worrying about even the most "base" of combos, like Blistercoil, etc. They add too much redundancy than is good for the format.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
For what it's worth, switch the Alter with a Blasting Station and you have Modern Pebbles. Just saying.
Hey, that's pretty cool. I just may put this piece of crap deck together.
At least I don't have to worry about it doing well and getting banned.
Seriously, how is Modern Pebbles doing? Is it a real deck? Does it put up any kind of numbers at all? Is it even on WotC's radar? I'd hate to put this thing together and have it be for nothing.
How many decks would realistically run the full complement of Ponder, Preordain, Sleight of Hand, Serum Visions, and G-Probe? Twin is probably the best candidate unless a weird cantrip only combo pops up, but I doubt Splinter Twin would run ALL of them. Twin needs to accommodate 15-16 cards for the combo depending on how many Kiki-Jiki's they run, plus should run a little bit of protection for the combo and enough lands to consistently hit 4 land on T4 if its worried about speed. That doesn't leave much room for extra cantrips though.
I suppose PyroStorm using the Manamorphose/Noxious Revival loop would run 16 cantrips between Thought Scour, G-Probe, Ponder and Preordain, but this isn't any more than the current set up, just a substitution of P&P for Sleight and Visions. The Thought Scour is there as a kill condition for milling that just happens to help dig in the early game or fill the 'yard to activate Ascension.
Realistically, most decks would probably opt for some number between 4-10 cantrips depending on space and combos might use up to 16 in extreme cases but that's no worse than what we see already. If there's a 20 cantrip deck out there without compromising on resilience or combo protection, I'd like to see it.
Besides, if a deck got 'too consistent' at winning before T4, its either the combo itself that's the issue or a weird metagame imbalance created by a lack of viable control decks that can check it. Cantrips don't accelerate you, so they don't actually 'speed up' a deck.
Speculate less. Test more.
Er, more cantrips means you've effectively got more lands. Alan Comers and the Xerox effect and all that.