This set's incredibly dense, much like RTR. The prices are going to be depressed because this set just has so many playable cards. Thankfully we only have to deal with Cavern-Sire for 6 months, though.
This set's incredibly dense, much like RTR. The prices are going to be depressed because this set just has so many playable cards. Thankfully we only have to deal with Cavern-Sire for 6 months, though.
I don't think we are facing that problem the set has a lot of solid cards but not many huge value cards. The chance of busting a shockland is extremely low and the only cards in double digits of value are Ral Zarek, Blood Baron and Voice of Resurgence.
I opened up nearly a whole case and got like 3 shocklands, (I will admit I did leave about 30-40 loose packs though for potential drafts with friends later.)
RTR near launch had about a 15% chance of a pack giving a card that has at least 10 dollars mid value. No way in hell does this set have the same level of value. RTR was the highest value per box I have ever seen near launch and that is why RTR cards fell like bricks.
How about we look outside of standard for a second here.
Picked up a foil Notion Thief (only card I am getting from the entire set, good job there Wizards) for $10. The card is likely to be pretty big on UB/UBx decks in EDH, and after drawing 9 off of someone using Primal Hunter's -3 and proceeding to win the game after untapping he has definitely proved himself to me, and you know how we love our foils. Think that was a safe buy, odds it'll drop or eventually appreciate in value?
So, lots of talk about Voice, but what's the verdict on Ral? I'm wanting two for a deck but I don't know if it's wise to buy/trade for him at his current price.
So, lots of talk about Voice, but what's the verdict on Ral? I'm wanting two for a deck but I don't know if it's wise to buy/trade for him at his current price.
He's already dropping in value, this weekend's standard performance will see where his pricing might be in the short term. I see him staying around $25 if he shows up in one of the TOP 8 decks. If he doesn't show, He might go as low as $22. Can't really speculate further than that because of his playability.
I know some of the people in my local scene jamming it in their EDH decks but I don't see him being very good unless the deck also has doubling season.
Super long term speculation might see him around $10. I personally wouldn't value him over $23 in trade.
So, lots of talk about Voice, but what's the verdict on Ral? I'm wanting two for a deck but I don't know if it's wise to buy/trade for him at his current price.
3 damage isn't the 4 damage necessary to kill Loxodon Smiter, Rampager, and Restoration Angel; the two spells necessary to kill Thragtusk, Voice, and all of Huntmaster; the non-damage removal required to kill Boros Reckoner; the larger amounts of damage necessary to kill Craterhoof, Prime Speaker, and Angel of Serenity; or the toughness lowering required to kill Falkenrath Aristocrat.
In short, Ral Zarek doesn't really kill anything worth the "whole 4-mana card" of Lightning Bolt + dying to an attack and the first ability is only OK. It's a planeswalker with the ability to protect itself that doesn't actually protect it very well in Standard right now.
The best use of Ral Zerak is to double bolt to the face. As such, it will be competing with Duskmantle Seer as the four drop finisher in a Grixis Aggro Deck post rotation, if such a deck exists.
I get that there isn't a whole lot of love for Ral. I guess I'm just wondering how low he might go, how quickly he might drop. If I trade for one at $20 today, am I going to hate myself in a few days? In a week? Or will I get my money's worth by playing him for a few months before he starts to drop considerably? (I remember waiting FOREVER for the Gatecrash mythics to drop in price).
Knowing my luck I'll hold out on him waiting until he hits $12 and then someone will top 8 with a few copies in their deck and he'll double in price overnight.
I get that there isn't a whole lot of love for Ral. I guess I'm just wondering how low he might go, how quickly he might drop. If I trade for one at $20 today, am I going to hate myself in a few days? In a week? Or will I get my money's worth by playing him for a few months before he starts to drop considerably? (I remember waiting FOREVER for the Gatecrash mythics to drop in price).
Knowing my luck I'll hold out on him waiting until he hits $12 and then someone will top 8 with a few copies in their deck and he'll double in price overnight.
Based on Block, 4 is the magic number post rotation (unless M14 and Grecoroma say differently), so if you spend $20 on Ral today you'll probably wake up regretting it the next morning.
I'm wondering the same... do i need to unload my two Ral Zarek now? will this be a 25$ for long?
Edit : Kijin kinda anwsered it...
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I agree with Kijin's assessment for the most part, although I think there will be a good bit of casual demand and EDH playability due solely to the possibility of taking five extra turns. I also think that he has room to rise after rotation if the meta becomes more favorable to him, and he does have some great synergy with Izzet Staticaster for killing waves of X/2's.
But for now, I see him as stabilizing in the 12-15 range.
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Notion Thief, Plasm Capture, and Skylasher all fell below $3.00 according to TCGPlayer low values, leaving us with 14 cards over that threshold. The set as a whole lost a lot of value, but two cards moved up: Advent of the Wurm and Deadbridge Chant. Chant is one of my favorite cards in the set, so it's to see it doing well, but I can't imagine it will retain any kind of solid price. People will inevitably try to build around it, but I imagine there won't be that much success. Advent of the Wurm on the other hand seems like it has the potential to be a very strong constructed card, and I feel that it has been undervalued in the past. The rest of the cards held their positions for the most part, with Ral Zarek and Voice of Resurgence dominating the overall value of the set.
Blood Scrivener's value dropped a lot (relatively), causing it to fall off the list with it's value below $3.00 in terms of TCGPlayer low value. A lot of other cards are barely hanging on, and I'm afraid that in a few weeks we may only have 5-6 cards that still make the list. Voice of Resurgence has not lost any steam yet, which is a little bit surprising when compared to the rest of the set, but I guess it has to make up the value for the fact that we have so few big money cards in this set.
mmm just a little more and I'm going to get all the blood barons.
Seriously that guy is value, he will break $15 at some point.
I like this set, the value is low so far but imo there are very few bad cards in the set. There are only like 3 rares I would be unhappy to open and maze's end is the only mythic I would be sad to open which doesn't matter because it replaces a common.
Add in the free shocks every 12 packs or so and this set seems to be fine.
Blood Scrivener's value dropped a lot (relatively), causing it to fall off the list with it's value below $3.00 in terms of TCGPlayer low value. A lot of other cards are barely hanging on, and I'm afraid that in a few weeks we may only have 5-6 cards that still make the list. Voice of Resurgence has not lost any steam yet, which is a little bit surprising when compared to the rest of the set, but I guess it has to make up the value for the fact that we have so few big money cards in this set.
Out of curiosity, why are you using TCG Low? TCG Mid seems to be the bible for card pricing here?
Out of curiosity, why are you using TCG Low? TCG Mid seems to be the bible for card pricing here?
I find that low values tend to be more useful with new cards, because they are usually significantly inflated just by the fact that they are new. Once a set has settled into its price "groove", I start using TCG Mid values, but right now I feel those values are too high simply because they are new cards and people don't want to miss the boat on the next Jace. Also TCG Low is closer to what cards typically go for on sites like eBay.
Out of curiosity, why are you using TCG Low? TCG Mid seems to be the bible for card pricing here?
Depends on the person. My price lists which I used to be more active posting on here for standard sets, were always based on the low end of ebay buy it nows, to which tcgplayer low prices tend to most closely reflect. When I look for prices and values, I look for what the average person could immediately go and sell the card for, in this case that would mean ebay and matching the lowest prices in order to sell reasonably quickly. If multiple sellers on tcgplayer are selling a card at $20, which is the low end of the going rate for the card there, but the tcgplayer mid is $25, people are unlikely to buy the ones at $25, so long as those $20 versions remain.
Not only that, but for a very very few rares/mythics per set, most rares/mythics drop in value from the release day, until the market price stabilizes, sometime after mtgo paper set redemptions hit the market.
If someone is going solely off of trading, then going off the mid valuations may be fine, so long as you make sure there aren't some ridiculous values listed that are messing with the numbers. But if you are looking to sell or buy for cash, the lower values are going to be the ones to look at.
In the end, its all a matter of perspective and what each person is trying to use the valuations for.
I find that low values tend to be more useful with new cards, because they are usually significantly inflated just by the fact that they are new. Once a set has settled into its price "groove", I start using TCG Mid values, but right now I feel those values are too high simply because they are new cards and people don't want to miss the boat on the next Jace. Also TCG Low is closer to what cards typically go for on sites like eBay.
I can't disagree with this, I just don't like the idea of basing my card valuations on a single merchant.
mmm just a little more and I'm going to get all the blood barons.
Seriously that guy is value, he will break $15 at some point.
I like this set, the value is low so far but imo there are very few bad cards in the set. There are only like 3 rares I would be unhappy to open and maze's end is the only mythic I would be sad to open which doesn't matter because it replaces a common.
Add in the free shocks every 12 packs or so and this set seems to be fine.
I'm curious why you think this. It doesn't have evasion against horribly relevant colors in current Standard or Block (aside from Obzedat, Angel of Serenity, and Aurelia, all of which "evade" it). There are a good deal of very good sacrifice-based black removal spells and Mizzium Mortars and Supreme Verdict are two of the three most-played removal spells in block (Dreadbore, tied for third, doesn't hit this, obviously), which this card doesn't dodge effectively or add value once removed.
For its body, it's overcosted, and it's questionable how relevant its bonus is.
Malakir Bloodwitch was a good sideboard and occasional maindeck card, but saying Malakir Bloodwitch, even if printed at Mythic, was a $15 card is a bit of a stretch, IMO.
Not saying the Baron is unplayable, it just exists alongside Obzedat and Angel of Serenity, which each provide value and dodge the removal spells that kill this and are common to the formats they're best in -- I think it's outclassed, but I guess that's why I'm asking how you came to your conclusion about it.
I'm curious why you think this. It doesn't have evasion against horribly relevant colors in current Standard or Block (aside from Obzedat, Angel of Serenity, and Aurelia, all of which "evade" it). There are a good deal of very good sacrifice-based black removal spells and Mizzium Mortars and Supreme Verdict are two of the three most-played removal spells in block (Dreadbore, tied for third, doesn't hit this, obviously), which this card doesn't dodge effectively or add value once removed.
For its body, it's overcosted, and it's questionable how relevant its bonus is.
Malakir Bloodwitch was a good sideboard and occasional maindeck card, but saying Malakir Bloodwitch, even if printed at Mythic, was a $15 card is a bit of a stretch, IMO.
Not saying the Baron is unplayable, it just exists alongside Obzedat and Angel of Serenity, which each provide value and dodge the removal spells that kill this and are common to the formats they're best in -- I think it's outclassed, but I guess that's why I'm asking how you came to your conclusion about it.
All of those arguments are completely reasonable. Though I would point out that not every deck capable of casting Blood Baron will necessarily be able to cast Obzedat quite as easily, the mana is much more intense, so I don't know if they will always be fighting for the same kind of spot.
My understanding is that reasonably-costed creatures with protection from two colors have usually seen competitive play. Both the MBS Crusaders did, as did Stillmoon Cavalier and Mystic Crusader and Paladin en-Vec and Great Sable Stag.
Now maybe that level of protection is something you are interested in at 3cmc -- which all those cards are -- more than 5cmc.
Whatever its prospects in the future, the early price tag was clearly being supported by casual appeal, which I usually don't credit too much, but it's the only factor that makes sense. Even if most of the demand going forward is casual, it has some objectively good uses and isn't a Johnny-only mythic, which should keep it at least a couple bucks over bulk-mythic price if recent history says anything about this.
I'm curious why you think this. It doesn't have evasion against horribly relevant colors in current Standard or Block (aside from Obzedat, Angel of Serenity, and Aurelia, all of which "evade" it). There are a good deal of very good sacrifice-based black removal spells and Mizzium Mortars and Supreme Verdict are two of the three most-played removal spells in block (Dreadbore, tied for third, doesn't hit this, obviously), which this card doesn't dodge effectively or add value once removed.
For its body, it's overcosted, and it's questionable how relevant its bonus is.
Malakir Bloodwitch was a good sideboard and occasional maindeck card, but saying Malakir Bloodwitch, even if printed at Mythic, was a $15 card is a bit of a stretch, IMO.
Not saying the Baron is unplayable, it just exists alongside Obzedat and Angel of Serenity, which each provide value and dodge the removal spells that kill this and are common to the formats they're best in -- I think it's outclassed, but I guess that's why I'm asking how you came to your conclusion about it.
It dodges almost all spot removal and still beats for 4 with lifelink. Mortars and renounce the guilds are the only real ways to deal with him.
Maybe I've played the game too long but this guys seems very undercosted. Protection isn't that common these days and having protection from two colors in a multicolored meta is huge.
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Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
I don't think we are facing that problem the set has a lot of solid cards but not many huge value cards. The chance of busting a shockland is extremely low and the only cards in double digits of value are Ral Zarek, Blood Baron and Voice of Resurgence.
I opened up nearly a whole case and got like 3 shocklands, (I will admit I did leave about 30-40 loose packs though for potential drafts with friends later.)
RTR near launch had about a 15% chance of a pack giving a card that has at least 10 dollars mid value. No way in hell does this set have the same level of value. RTR was the highest value per box I have ever seen near launch and that is why RTR cards fell like bricks.
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Picked up a foil Notion Thief (only card I am getting from the entire set, good job there Wizards) for $10. The card is likely to be pretty big on UB/UBx decks in EDH, and after drawing 9 off of someone using Primal Hunter's -3 and proceeding to win the game after untapping he has definitely proved himself to me, and you know how we love our foils. Think that was a safe buy, odds it'll drop or eventually appreciate in value?
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He's already dropping in value, this weekend's standard performance will see where his pricing might be in the short term. I see him staying around $25 if he shows up in one of the TOP 8 decks. If he doesn't show, He might go as low as $22. Can't really speculate further than that because of his playability.
I know some of the people in my local scene jamming it in their EDH decks but I don't see him being very good unless the deck also has doubling season.
Super long term speculation might see him around $10. I personally wouldn't value him over $23 in trade.
3 damage isn't the 4 damage necessary to kill Loxodon Smiter, Rampager, and Restoration Angel; the two spells necessary to kill Thragtusk, Voice, and all of Huntmaster; the non-damage removal required to kill Boros Reckoner; the larger amounts of damage necessary to kill Craterhoof, Prime Speaker, and Angel of Serenity; or the toughness lowering required to kill Falkenrath Aristocrat.
In short, Ral Zarek doesn't really kill anything worth the "whole 4-mana card" of Lightning Bolt + dying to an attack and the first ability is only OK. It's a planeswalker with the ability to protect itself that doesn't actually protect it very well in Standard right now.
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Knowing my luck I'll hold out on him waiting until he hits $12 and then someone will top 8 with a few copies in their deck and he'll double in price overnight.
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Based on Block, 4 is the magic number post rotation (unless M14 and Grecoroma say differently), so if you spend $20 on Ral today you'll probably wake up regretting it the next morning.
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Edit : Kijin kinda anwsered it...
Standard: GWRU 4C Collected Company
Modern: GUWRB Bloom Titan
Legacy: BUG SHARDLESS BUG
EDH :
GR BORBORYGMOS ENRAGED
GU PRIME SPEAKER ZEGENA
UWR ZEDRUU THE GREATHEARTED
UBR MISHRA ARTIFICER PRODIGY
B SHEOLDRED WHISPERING ONE
R ASHLING THE PILGRIM
Retired
Legacy:
GRUB Lands
Modern:
U Tron
RG Tron
RG Ponza
But for now, I see him as stabilizing in the 12-15 range.
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Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
Here's another update for you guys:
2) Ral Zarek $18.80
3) Blood Baron of Vizkopa $7.80
4) Legion's Initiative $6.80
5) Advent of the Wurm $5.45
6) Master of Cruelties $5.24
7) Deadbridge Chant $4.30
8) Progenitor Mimic $3.50
9) Sire of Insanity $3.50
10) Savageborn Hydra $3.46
11) Varolz, the Scar-Striped $3.45
12) Council of the Absolute $3.13
13) Ætherling $3.00
Blood Scrivener's value dropped a lot (relatively), causing it to fall off the list with it's value below $3.00 in terms of TCGPlayer low value. A lot of other cards are barely hanging on, and I'm afraid that in a few weeks we may only have 5-6 cards that still make the list. Voice of Resurgence has not lost any steam yet, which is a little bit surprising when compared to the rest of the set, but I guess it has to make up the value for the fact that we have so few big money cards in this set.
GUB [Retired Primer] The Mimeoplasm BUG
Modern: UR Storm RU
Cube: WUBRG Pauper Cube GRBUW
Credit for the banner goes to DarkNightCavalier at Heroes of the Plane Studios
Seriously that guy is value, he will break $15 at some point.
I like this set, the value is low so far but imo there are very few bad cards in the set. There are only like 3 rares I would be unhappy to open and maze's end is the only mythic I would be sad to open which doesn't matter because it replaces a common.
Add in the free shocks every 12 packs or so and this set seems to be fine.
Credit goes to Brofoux for the Sig pic.
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Out of curiosity, why are you using TCG Low? TCG Mid seems to be the bible for card pricing here?
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I find that low values tend to be more useful with new cards, because they are usually significantly inflated just by the fact that they are new. Once a set has settled into its price "groove", I start using TCG Mid values, but right now I feel those values are too high simply because they are new cards and people don't want to miss the boat on the next Jace. Also TCG Low is closer to what cards typically go for on sites like eBay.
GUB [Retired Primer] The Mimeoplasm BUG
Modern: UR Storm RU
Cube: WUBRG Pauper Cube GRBUW
Credit for the banner goes to DarkNightCavalier at Heroes of the Plane Studios
Depends on the person. My price lists which I used to be more active posting on here for standard sets, were always based on the low end of ebay buy it nows, to which tcgplayer low prices tend to most closely reflect. When I look for prices and values, I look for what the average person could immediately go and sell the card for, in this case that would mean ebay and matching the lowest prices in order to sell reasonably quickly. If multiple sellers on tcgplayer are selling a card at $20, which is the low end of the going rate for the card there, but the tcgplayer mid is $25, people are unlikely to buy the ones at $25, so long as those $20 versions remain.
Not only that, but for a very very few rares/mythics per set, most rares/mythics drop in value from the release day, until the market price stabilizes, sometime after mtgo paper set redemptions hit the market.
If someone is going solely off of trading, then going off the mid valuations may be fine, so long as you make sure there aren't some ridiculous values listed that are messing with the numbers. But if you are looking to sell or buy for cash, the lower values are going to be the ones to look at.
In the end, its all a matter of perspective and what each person is trying to use the valuations for.
I can't disagree with this, I just don't like the idea of basing my card valuations on a single merchant.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
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I'm curious why you think this. It doesn't have evasion against horribly relevant colors in current Standard or Block (aside from Obzedat, Angel of Serenity, and Aurelia, all of which "evade" it). There are a good deal of very good sacrifice-based black removal spells and Mizzium Mortars and Supreme Verdict are two of the three most-played removal spells in block (Dreadbore, tied for third, doesn't hit this, obviously), which this card doesn't dodge effectively or add value once removed.
For its body, it's overcosted, and it's questionable how relevant its bonus is.
Malakir Bloodwitch was a good sideboard and occasional maindeck card, but saying Malakir Bloodwitch, even if printed at Mythic, was a $15 card is a bit of a stretch, IMO.
Not saying the Baron is unplayable, it just exists alongside Obzedat and Angel of Serenity, which each provide value and dodge the removal spells that kill this and are common to the formats they're best in -- I think it's outclassed, but I guess that's why I'm asking how you came to your conclusion about it.
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Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
All of those arguments are completely reasonable. Though I would point out that not every deck capable of casting Blood Baron will necessarily be able to cast Obzedat quite as easily, the mana is much more intense, so I don't know if they will always be fighting for the same kind of spot.
My understanding is that reasonably-costed creatures with protection from two colors have usually seen competitive play. Both the MBS Crusaders did, as did Stillmoon Cavalier and Mystic Crusader and Paladin en-Vec and Great Sable Stag.
Now maybe that level of protection is something you are interested in at 3cmc -- which all those cards are -- more than 5cmc.
Whatever its prospects in the future, the early price tag was clearly being supported by casual appeal, which I usually don't credit too much, but it's the only factor that makes sense. Even if most of the demand going forward is casual, it has some objectively good uses and isn't a Johnny-only mythic, which should keep it at least a couple bucks over bulk-mythic price if recent history says anything about this.
Cheers
Yep, a format where Serra Ascendant is a helluva lot better.
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It dodges almost all spot removal and still beats for 4 with lifelink. Mortars and renounce the guilds are the only real ways to deal with him.
Maybe I've played the game too long but this guys seems very undercosted. Protection isn't that common these days and having protection from two colors in a multicolored meta is huge.