I don't see why this deck can't get to turn 3-4. Keep plugging away.
For me, there are two things that prevent this deck from winning on turn 4 over my own testing. The first is an inability to find Belcher. This tends to happen when you keep an opening 7 that is otherwise a very strong hand, except it lacks either Fabricate or Belcher. That puts you in straight up topdeck mode which might not bear fruit until turn 5 or 6. The second problem is when a turn 4 Belcher activation misses and doesn't deal enough damage, sending you back to a turn 5 win. I actually don't have a lot of trouble with ramping into the Belcher itself just because we have so much ramp. But finding Belcher remains an issue, especially against decks that can somewhat reliably get rid of the first Belcher with discard, countermagic, or removal.
I'm working on a next version of the list which is a lot faster than my last one, but it's still getting ironed out.
If I knew how to contact them and ask them to give credit here I would. I am the YQM from the article. I love this deck.
Welcome! So glad to see someone bringing our baby to get results. If you have some time, we'd love to hear about your matchups and experience with the deck.
As for Wizards, I'm sure it's because they can't link to third party sites or something like that.
Congrats again on your finish! I'm sure everyone here would love to read about your experiences with the deck in online play. Also, have you made any changes to the decklist? If so, what and how have the worked out?
For me, there are two things that prevent this deck from winning on turn 4 over my own testing. The first is an inability to find Belcher. This tends to happen when you keep an opening 7 that is otherwise a very strong hand, except it lacks either Fabricate or Belcher. That puts you in straight up topdeck mode which might not bear fruit until turn 5 or 6. The second problem is when a turn 4 Belcher activation misses and doesn't deal enough damage, sending you back to a turn 5 win. I actually don't have a lot of trouble with ramping into the Belcher itself just because we have so much ramp. But finding Belcher remains an issue, especially against decks that can somewhat reliably get rid of the first Belcher with discard, countermagic, or removal.
and this is why i like playing as much land search as possible with my 'slower' build: SSG and wall of roots do a lot less to accelerate the win than just having a good starting hand will.
Beseech is a great magic card, and opens up a lot of interesting options, you just gotta cut the cards that accel mana only
Do you have to be on Gu for the deck? I'm thinking that maybe black or red is worth a look. Also have the free cantrips of Street Wraith and Gitaxian Probe been tried at length?
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In case I didn't tell you, I don't care about your opinion I just want your facts. And not the facts that make you seem smart. I want the ones that are actual facts.
My 360 Peasant+ Cube!. Modern borders where possible, usually with the newest (or "best") art, and always the most readable card text. I also run all 10 painlands. My playgroup is super casual, as we have a fair number of newer or less experienced players. Typically we draft with 4 to 6 people, using 5 packs of 9.
Letting some singletons in for testing, even if I'm sceptical. And 61 cards. So, wildly not optimized for winning, but pretty good for learning.
Tested 10 games against Gruul Zoo. Goldfished the Gruul first, to get the hand of it and figure out how fast it is. Very consistent turn 4: 10/10 goldfishes in fact.
In games, Belcher won 4 out of 10. One turn 4 on the play, one turn 5 on the play against a weak Gruul hand, two turn 12+ hiding behind Bridge. Lost one game when my dorky U sources got burned, stranding Fabricate; one with a Bridge but I couldn't clear my hand; one to a multi-mulligan; and the rest were just races that Gruul won.
Congrats again on your finish! I'm sure everyone here would love to read about your experiences with the deck in online play. Also, have you made any changes to the decklist? If so, what and how have the worked out?
(I hope you don't mind me pestering you.)
Umm sure. I am just happy ya'll aren't mad that I am getting way to much credit in that article.
Living End: If they attempt to go off we win this match up. They make some dudes, we ignore them and stick to the plan and belch for the win. If they use thier LD package well we don't have much of a chance. Post sideboard I like to try and hold onto my belcher to play an activate it in one turn since Ignot Chewer can really ruin our day.
RG Tron: Go slow. Don't play belcher unless you can use it. They have a lot of answers to artifacts and even more postboard. Be calm and relax. Postboard this matchup is superhard since they have so many answers to us. I usually bring in Spellskite and maybe defense grid. Spellskite takes a hit that could destroy belcher while defense grid makes them have to wait to respond to things.
MonoU Tron: Go Fast. Belch over and over and over. They can't really get the belcher out of play once its on the field. Postboard put in some defense grids and this gets even easier.
Splinter Twin: You are about the same speed but way less reliable. This is going to come down to drawing the right cards and their card draw is better and faster. I usually put in fog and nature's claim.
Pod: if they gain infinate health we can't win. If they don't we can.
Robots: Pithing needle cranial plating. Like everytime. Put in all 3 Fogs postboard. I found that I almost always beat robots. When I was tracking wins I think I had won 100% postboard (-3 Simian Guide +3 Fog) and like 80% preboard.
Overall I think the deck has a lot of really interesting lines and I really enjoy playing it. I am glad I could get it noticed and think it is really clever. I can say so far that Wall of Roots is the best card in the deck. It blocks well, can't be bolted easily and gives mana. I would take out almost any creature for more of them if I could. Other REALLY good cards include Recross the Paths and Fabricate. While I often drew into belcher when I needed something fabricate was there. It was also great with most our sideboard cards.
Cards I don't like: Simian Spirit Guide. Never did anything and was always the first thing to be removed (except for RG Tron since birds/arbor elfs are useless when pyroclasm is going to happen). Autumn's Veil, I actually never cast this spell ever. I don't know when I ever would. I prefer to just play around the counters or bait them out with other spells.
That is all I can think of off the top of my head but I know I have played more decks than that so feel free to ask. I also stream on twitch under the name AustinYQM where you can find quite a few of my games with the deck in the archieves.
Ancient Stirrings whiffs much less frequently when you're playing 4 more Wurmcoils than the pure combo version.
And yes, no Recross or Fabricate. Stirrings is enough to dig for your wincons.
This is like what? 27% chance to hit 15 colorless card w/ Ancient Stirrings, and the chance decreases each time you tutor for a land? I've stated it before and I really think the deck needs to be more colorless to run it.
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Where are you getting this number of 27%? Firstly, Stirrings should never ever be the first thing you play. If it is, you should have mulliganed. Secondly, even if it was, let's calculate the probabilities of hitting something:
First, the best-case scenario. a.k.a. the one that you should have mulled.
Assume it's turn 1, 1 land in hand, no other colorless cards drawn. That leaves 14 colorless cards left in the deck, out of 53.
Total 5-card combinations off Stirrings = nCr(53, 5) <- call this p
Total 5-card combinations off Strrings that don't include a colorless card = nCr(53-14, 5) <- call this q
Probability of NOT whiffing = 1 - (q/p) = 0.799
That figure of 27% couldn't be further from the truth. You actually have ~79% chance of hitting something with Stirrings on the first turn.
Next, the worst-case scenario.
Assume it's turn 4 and there are no lands left in the library. Also assume that we haven't drawn any Belchers/Wurmcoils (otherwise, we wouldn't need to use Stirrings), and that there are 45 cards left in the library (7 from starting hand, 5-6 from search spells, 4-3 from draws).
Total 5-card combinations off Stirrings = nCr(45, 5) <- call this p
Total 5-card combinations off Strrings that don't include a colorless card = nCr(45-8, 5) <- call this q
Probability of NOT whiffing = 1 - (q/p) = 0.643
I'll emphasize the second number: when you're digging for a threat with Stirrings, you have a 64% chance of getting it.
Umm sure. I am just happy ya'll aren't mad that I am getting way to much credit in that article.
No one's mad. We're super excited the deck got so much exposure.
This is a great write up, too. Thanks for putting it together. I've never run Autumn's Veil, but I do run SSG. Any thoughts on what you might sub in if you pulled him from the deck completely? More land search, more ramp, maybe main deck fogs? Sylvan Ranger maybe?
I'll be sure to check out some of your streams. Thanks again.
Umm sure. I am just happy ya'll aren't mad that I am getting way to much credit in that article.
Heck, you used my Twin list and all I care about was that you did so well. Besides, Magic is such an inherently collaborative game that most of us only care about deck performance, not credit.
Overall I think the deck has a lot of really interesting lines and I really enjoy playing it. I am glad I could get it noticed and think it is really clever. I can say so far that Wall of Roots is the best card in the deck. It blocks well, can't be bolted easily and gives mana. I would take out almost any creature for more of them if I could. Other REALLY good cards include Recross the Paths and Fabricate. While I often drew into belcher when I needed something fabricate was there. It was also great with most our sideboard cards.
Thanks for your reflections and your match notes. I totally agree with you on Wall and Fabricate, but of late I have been reducing my Recross count to 2-3 to make room for a 3rd or 4th Fabricate. Given how important you found the artifacts postboard, I think that the added Fabricates will not only help speed but also help our game 2/3 chances when we can bring in artifacts to hold the line.
Cards I don't like: Simian Spirit Guide. Never did anything and was always the first thing to be removed (except for RG Tron since birds/arbor elfs are useless when pyroclasm is going to happen). Autumn's Veil, I actually never cast this spell ever. I don't know when I ever would. I prefer to just play around the counters or bait them out with other spells.
I'm ambivalent on SSG. Although SSG has enabled some rare turn 3 wins in my testing, it is an awful topdeck unless you have a very specific configuration of cards. That said, it enables decent turn 1 plays in tandem with Chancellor, and I don't know if 2 of them are that bad in the deck. Just because a card gets boarded out every match does not mean that the card shouldn't be in the maindeck; PV has a good article about that theory somewhere on CF (can't find it off the top of my head). Also, if you are running Cultivate/Reach in any quantity, SSG becomes a lot better.
This is a great write up, too. Thanks for putting it together. I've never run Autumn's Veil, but I do run SSG. Any thoughts on what you might sub in if you pulled him from the deck completely? More land search, more ramp, maybe main deck fogs? Sylvan Ranger maybe?
I'll be sure to check out some of your streams. Thanks again.
I'm inclined to add more land search of some kind. My number one reason for not winning on turn 4 isn't an inability to cast and activate Belcher. It's activating Belcher and then flubbing into a land that was left in my deck. Mind you, my current list has cut the Breeding Pool in favor of Stomping Ground, making up for the deficit blue mana by going to 4 BoP, 4 Sprawl, and 3 Hierarch. But even with Ground, I often activate Belcher with 2 lands in my deck on turn 4 because that's about the most I can thin before a turn 4 Belcher activation. And that gives me a pretty high chance of missing on the activation.
Ideally, this deck needs more cost effective land thinning. I considered Evolution Charm for its utility and because it's instant speed, which means we can get the most out of Wall of Roots mana. But, sadly, it isn't a very good card. It's pretty bad, in fact, and good decks should not play bad cards.
Re: Beseech vs. Fabricate
For a while, I was getting excited about Beseech. But then I realized that, at least for me, this deck has one objective: Win on turn 4 with Belcher. Maybe this deck should be more flexible in its objectives, but for me, that's the big one. Beseech is not very good at reaching this objective because of its inability to find Belcher with less than 4 lands in play. That means you can never Beseech a Belcher on turn 2. It means you will often have to tap out on turn 3 to cast Beseech, or at least tap most of your lands. And that means it is much less likely that you can then cast and activate Belcher on turn 4. Beseech is a lot better in a slower game plan where you can win on turn 5 instead (I was using Elves of Deep Shadow for a while to make Beseech a better tutor). But for the fast turn 4 gameplan, which is what I am focusing on (Again, maybe something to reconsider), Beseech just doesn't get the job done like Fabricate.
Have you done much playtesting with this version? I'm very curious as to how this compares to the Fabricate/Breeding Pool version of the deck. In addition, I really like how it makes beatdown a viable backup plan in case Belcher doesn't work for whatever reason.
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My 360 Peasant+ Cube!. Modern borders where possible, usually with the newest (or "best") art, and always the most readable card text. I also run all 10 painlands. My playgroup is super casual, as we have a fair number of newer or less experienced players. Typically we draft with 4 to 6 people, using 5 packs of 9.
I've been goldfishing this all day. Yes, I really feel that it is consistent. It's pretty easy to hit either Belcher by itself, or a combination of Chancellor + Wurmcoil.
Some tips for Stirrings:
1) You only want to cast this card when you're on at least 2 lands. If you're on 1 land, practically any other 1-drop is better. If you have no other 1-drops, you should have mulliganed the hand.
2) If you're looking for a wincon with Stirrings, you want to thin your deck of as many lands as possible before casting Stirrings. If you're desperate for that wincon, hitting a land with Stirrings is as good as useless. So try to minimize the number of cards in your deck before doing it.
3) On the other hand, if you'd prefer to have a land in hand over a Wurmcoil/Belcher (because maybe you already have 1 wincon in hand, so an extra is useless), cast Stirrings first.
4) Remember that Stirrings throws the unused cards to the bottom. Sequence correctly. If there's only 1 land in your library, you'd want to cast land tutors first, then cast Stirrings. Not only will the land tutor thin your deck ever so slightly, if you whiff with Stirrings, at least you're 5 cards closer to a wincon.
5) If you have a Belcher out, do not cast Stirrings. What will most likely happen is that you don't find a land in the top 5 cards, and thus reduce your Belcher damage output by 5-10.
6) Above all, just ask yourself these two questions every time you hesitate on Stirrings:
"What do I really want to see with Stirrings?"
"If I don't see that, am I completely screwed?"
These questions will help you decide if you should cast Stirrings or some other spell in your hand.
I've been goldfishing this all day. Yes, I really feel that it is consistent. It's pretty easy to hit either Belcher by itself, or a combination of Chancellor + Wurmcoil.
How often would you say you win via beatdown compared with Belcher? Belcher is obviously the primary wincon but I'm curious in what situations you'd abandon belcher and go for the beats, as well as the frequency that occurs. Do you only do it vs certain decks, or is it just whichever wincon you hit first is the one you go with?
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My 360 Peasant+ Cube!. Modern borders where possible, usually with the newest (or "best") art, and always the most readable card text. I also run all 10 painlands. My playgroup is super casual, as we have a fair number of newer or less experienced players. Typically we draft with 4 to 6 people, using 5 packs of 9.
izzetmage, would you say that the flexibility of getting lands and not needing splash mana of Ancient Stirrings outweigh its lack of raw tutoring power in your Wurmcoil build? Considering just your "I need a win con" scenario, that has a 36% chance of whiffing, and IMO, that's pretty high. (In competitive Pokemon, the attack Scald is generally considered to inflict burn reliably enough even though it only has a 30% chance of burning. Also, the attack Stone Edge is nicknamed Stone Miss and called "the worst attack in the game" despite having only a 20% chance of missing (though missing with a Stone Edge is fatal fairly often). If competitive (Pokemon) players get frustrated with a 20% whiff chance, I suspect competitive (MTG) players would get frustrated with a 36% whiff chance.)
Panda: I didn't keep track to the numbers, but I'd estimate that I use the beatdown plan about 40% of the time. You have 8 beaters (Chancellor is kinda hard to cast though, because the Stomping Ground is usually stuck in your library, so you need a mana dork/Sprawl/SSG to get to 7) and 4 Belchers. If you draw a beater and Belcher, you'd go for the Belcher kill more often.
If you have something like 3-4 lands and Belcher+Wurmcoil in hand, you'd want to cast Wurmcoil first, because it's unlikely that one Belcher activation will be lethal. Wurmcoil buys you some time.
Lectrys: If you compare threat counts:
UG version has: 4 Belcher, 4 Fabricate, 4 Chancellor, 4 Recross
my version has: 4 Belcher, 4 Wurmcoil, 4 Chancellor, 4 Stirrings.
I have just as many threats as the Fabricate version. The difference is that Fabricate is basically a 10-mana (3+4+3) threat compared to Wurmcoil's 6, and Recross vs Stirrings.
My beef with Fabricate/Recross is...well, based on my past experiences with combo decks, 3 mana tutors never make the cut. You'd never see Muddle the Mixture in Storm despite the fact that it can tutor your wincon and counter your opponent's counters, or Drift of Phantasms in Eggs (post-FR it became unnecessary, but even pre-FR it wasn't good enough to make the deck competitive).
In fact, Recross isn't even a tutor per se. Sometimes you have no way of getting out that last Stomping Ground from your library, so it merely acts as a ramp spell that lets you scry 1. If you win the clash, you get Recross back, but you need two more turns before you can see a wincon (one turn to cast Recross again, one turn to draw the wincon off your stacked deck). Even in the best-case scenario, Recross merely puts the card on top of your library, not in your hand.
I think the issue here is that engine combo decks need to be able to win fast, so low-cost diggers that don't always work will beat 3CMC tutors. Most of the time, you either cast the tutor and lose because you can't kill your opponent on time, or you keep the tutor in hand all game and never cast it because your other spells are sufficient for you to win. Either way, you should start thinking of a replacement, because the tutor isn't doing anything for you.
Lastly, don't forget that 64% is only for cases where you do not draw a threat naturally.
Ok, well I think I might pick up this deck for my youtube channel. I really like off the wall combo's and many viewers want to see budget decks so this looks like a nice fit. I do have a few questions after reading threw this thread.
Why don't more builds use Simian Spirit Guide's and Wild Cantor? They look like a natural fit. Individually they both work in favor of what the deck want's to do anyways. Guide lets you do just about anything a turn earlier. Wild Cantor is like a mana bank and it triggers Caravan Vigil Morbid Effect. In a perfect world you could even turn one Forest, Wild Cantor, Caravan, Caravan, Lay of the Land. You could even SSG into Cantor into Caravan and still cast a Utopia Sprawl.
I know all that sounds like a lot, but not at the same time or am I just reaching to far out there?
Ok, well I think I might pick up this deck for my youtube channel. I really like off the wall combo's and many viewers want to see budget decks so this looks like a nice fit. I do have a few questions after reading threw this thread.
Why don't more builds use Simian Spirit Guide's and Wild Cantor? They look like a natural fit. Individually they both work in favor of what the deck want's to do anyways. Guide lets you do just about anything a turn earlier. Wild Cantor is like a mana bank and it triggers Caravan Vigil Morbid Effect. In a perfect world you could even turn one Forest, Wild Cantor, Caravan, Caravan, Lay of the Land. You could even SSG into Cantor into Caravan and still cast a Utopia Sprawl.
I know all that sounds like a lot, but not at the same time or am I just reaching to far out there?
The problem is, it's not a perfect world. LOL
On a serious note though, somewhere in this thread, people figured out that Simian Spirit Guide and Wild Cantor aren't very good at two things: adding mana over time on their own, or reducing the number of lands in the library on their own. They are great cards if you're in a hurry, but not so great when you are not in a position to win early.
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Most builds do play SSG, in fact.
With regards to Wild Cantor, it's just bad on its own. Most of the time it's worse than a mana dork. Wild Cantor gives you mana only once, and that's it. Mana dorks give you mana once per turn, for as long as they stay alive.
I'm all for out of the box ideas, but why wouldn't we just play Harrow instead? Same cost for the effect, it's the right color and we don't have to discard. Is the attraction just that he offers repeatable land search?
I played 30 games on the play. I found it to be almost exactly as consistent as the other decks we’ve tried. It’s still clocking in with an average win on just over turn 5. What’s really exciting about it, of course, is those games where you haven’t won by turn 5, you likely have one or more Wurmcoil Engines or Chancellor of the Tangles in play and are actively beating face with those threats.
I “won” with beatdown 5 times, or about 16 percent of the time. That is, I ended the game after I had attacked with creatures enough times to deal lethal damage. I know that’s not a perfect measurement, but this is just goldfishing. Once, I got out an early Wurmcoil and then won the next turn by top decking ‘Belcher and activating it that same turn. I’d like to believe the wurmcoil would have held any attackers at bay for that crucial extra turn.
It's not a huge bonus of the deck, but one advantage of running mono green is you can set your Utopia Sprawl for green mana, which sometimes helps power out multiple land search spells per turn.
I had only one game where I never drew any threats.
In two more games, I ended up mulliganing to four cards and still did not have a hand I could work with, so I called them game losses. I’m wondering if this deck shouldn’t increase the number of mana dorks just a tad to help with mulligans. Perhaps cut two Into the North for two more elves, or maybe add Birds of Paradise back in.
I’m also concerned about how it would play in a real game against disruption. I should have kept better track, but I believe Ancient Stirrings drew me into a threat twice, and whiffed four times. While it’s clunky, Fabricate really is ‘Belcher 5-7, where Stirrings only might be.
This version of the deck is certainly fun to play, and the extra threat count does provide a little piece of mind when you can’t seem to find ‘Belcher. I think I would rather play a deck that consistently fires ‘Belcher on turn 4, and go all in on that as a WinCon. But in the absence of that, this is a pretty solid alternative.
I'm not ready to give up on what I've started calling "Noble Belcher" (Hierarchs, Birds and Fabricate), but folks should also give this "Beatdown Belcher" a try. (Belcher Engine? Wurm Burp?)
They're different enough that I don't know if there's any hope of ever bringing the two together, but that could also make a neat experiment.
Wow great things happening with this deck, sorry I haven't been around to contribute much lately (but such is the fate of a young father at the holidays).
I've touched up the primer a bit (added Izzetmage's Beatdown Belcher and Dailymtg article). If I've missed anything important that should be in the primer then someone please send me a PM, I should get an e-mail notification on that and be able to update.
I do know I'm missing a lot of credit in the special thanks section, haven't updated it in a while. If I've missed you please send me a PM as well, credit where credit is due and all that.
If you do, please be sure to post a link in the thread or PM me the details so I can get it added to the "Stop the Presses" section.
I have the deck built already. I am just testing a few configurations and getting a real feel for the deck prior to making a video. This is a very budget friendly deck and something I feel many players might be looking for to break into modern. After a little digging I found that I had 90% of it in my commons/uncommons. Only really missing the Chancellor's and the Wall of Roots.
One of the most fascinating aspects of this deck is that it can only get better. Standard is always starving for mana acceleration and wizards is generally very generous with new inventive mana dorks.
For me, there are two things that prevent this deck from winning on turn 4 over my own testing. The first is an inability to find Belcher. This tends to happen when you keep an opening 7 that is otherwise a very strong hand, except it lacks either Fabricate or Belcher. That puts you in straight up topdeck mode which might not bear fruit until turn 5 or 6. The second problem is when a turn 4 Belcher activation misses and doesn't deal enough damage, sending you back to a turn 5 win. I actually don't have a lot of trouble with ramping into the Belcher itself just because we have so much ramp. But finding Belcher remains an issue, especially against decks that can somewhat reliably get rid of the first Belcher with discard, countermagic, or removal.
I'm working on a next version of the list which is a lot faster than my last one, but it's still getting ironed out.
Welcome! So glad to see someone bringing our baby to get results. If you have some time, we'd love to hear about your matchups and experience with the deck.
As for Wizards, I'm sure it's because they can't link to third party sites or something like that.
Congrats again on your finish! I'm sure everyone here would love to read about your experiences with the deck in online play. Also, have you made any changes to the decklist? If so, what and how have the worked out?
(I hope you don't mind me pestering you.)
Awesome. I can't wait to see what you've brewed up!
and this is why i like playing as much land search as possible with my 'slower' build: SSG and wall of roots do a lot less to accelerate the win than just having a good starting hand will.
Beseech is a great magic card, and opens up a lot of interesting options, you just gotta cut the cards that accel mana only
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It was brought up somewhere much earlier in the thread; I think it was tested and the consensus was "not consistently enough to be worth using."
1 Stomping ground
4 Chancellor of the tangle
1 Lotus bloom
1 Simian spirit guide
4 Lay of the land
4 Caravan vigil
4 Safewright quest
2 Search for tomorrow
4 Utopia sprawl
4 Birds of paradise
2 Noble hierarch
2 Rampant growth
1 Wall of roots
1 Sylvan ranger
4 Cultivate
4 Fabricate
2 Recross the paths
1 Pithing needle
1 Ensnaring bridge
Letting some singletons in for testing, even if I'm sceptical. And 61 cards. So, wildly not optimized for winning, but pretty good for learning.
Tested 10 games against Gruul Zoo. Goldfished the Gruul first, to get the hand of it and figure out how fast it is. Very consistent turn 4: 10/10 goldfishes in fact.
In games, Belcher won 4 out of 10. One turn 4 on the play, one turn 5 on the play against a weak Gruul hand, two turn 12+ hiding behind Bridge. Lost one game when my dorky U sources got burned, stranding Fabricate; one with a Bridge but I couldn't clear my hand; one to a multi-mulligan; and the rest were just races that Gruul won.
Umm sure. I am just happy ya'll aren't mad that I am getting way to much credit in that article.
Living End: If they attempt to go off we win this match up. They make some dudes, we ignore them and stick to the plan and belch for the win. If they use thier LD package well we don't have much of a chance. Post sideboard I like to try and hold onto my belcher to play an activate it in one turn since Ignot Chewer can really ruin our day.
RG Tron: Go slow. Don't play belcher unless you can use it. They have a lot of answers to artifacts and even more postboard. Be calm and relax. Postboard this matchup is superhard since they have so many answers to us. I usually bring in Spellskite and maybe defense grid. Spellskite takes a hit that could destroy belcher while defense grid makes them have to wait to respond to things.
MonoU Tron: Go Fast. Belch over and over and over. They can't really get the belcher out of play once its on the field. Postboard put in some defense grids and this gets even easier.
Splinter Twin: You are about the same speed but way less reliable. This is going to come down to drawing the right cards and their card draw is better and faster. I usually put in fog and nature's claim.
Pod: if they gain infinate health we can't win. If they don't we can.
Robots: Pithing needle cranial plating. Like everytime. Put in all 3 Fogs postboard. I found that I almost always beat robots. When I was tracking wins I think I had won 100% postboard (-3 Simian Guide +3 Fog) and like 80% preboard.
Overall I think the deck has a lot of really interesting lines and I really enjoy playing it. I am glad I could get it noticed and think it is really clever. I can say so far that Wall of Roots is the best card in the deck. It blocks well, can't be bolted easily and gives mana. I would take out almost any creature for more of them if I could. Other REALLY good cards include Recross the Paths and Fabricate. While I often drew into belcher when I needed something fabricate was there. It was also great with most our sideboard cards.
Cards I don't like: Simian Spirit Guide. Never did anything and was always the first thing to be removed (except for RG Tron since birds/arbor elfs are useless when pyroclasm is going to happen). Autumn's Veil, I actually never cast this spell ever. I don't know when I ever would. I prefer to just play around the counters or bait them out with other spells.
That is all I can think of off the top of my head but I know I have played more decks than that so feel free to ask. I also stream on twitch under the name AustinYQM where you can find quite a few of my games with the deck in the archieves.
1 Stomping Ground
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
3 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Safewright Quest
4 Caravan Vigil
4 Lay of the Land
4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Utopia Sprawl
2 Arbor Elf
4 Rampant Growth
4 Sakura-Tribe Elder
4 Wall of Roots
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Wurmcoil Engine
3 Defense Grid
2 Spellskite
2 Torpor Orb
2 Fog
3 Nature's Claim
3 Dismember
Ancient Stirrings whiffs much less frequently when you're playing 4 more Wurmcoils than the pure combo version.
And yes, no Recross or Fabricate. Stirrings is enough to dig for your wincons.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
This is like what? 27% chance to hit 15 colorless card w/ Ancient Stirrings, and the chance decreases each time you tutor for a land? I've stated it before and I really think the deck needs to be more colorless to run it.
On the works:
Leyline Deck Wins:symbu:Null 'n Void:symbu:
Decks built:
:symg::symb::symr::symw::symu:ChangelingsUWRBG
:symru:16 land Ignite Memories Combo:symru:
:symbu:Hunted Singularity:symbu:
First, the best-case scenario. a.k.a. the one that you should have mulled.
Assume it's turn 1, 1 land in hand, no other colorless cards drawn. That leaves 14 colorless cards left in the deck, out of 53.
Total 5-card combinations off Stirrings = nCr(53, 5) <- call this p
Total 5-card combinations off Strrings that don't include a colorless card = nCr(53-14, 5) <- call this q
Probability of NOT whiffing = 1 - (q/p) = 0.799
That figure of 27% couldn't be further from the truth. You actually have ~79% chance of hitting something with Stirrings on the first turn.
Next, the worst-case scenario.
Assume it's turn 4 and there are no lands left in the library. Also assume that we haven't drawn any Belchers/Wurmcoils (otherwise, we wouldn't need to use Stirrings), and that there are 45 cards left in the library (7 from starting hand, 5-6 from search spells, 4-3 from draws).
Total 5-card combinations off Stirrings = nCr(45, 5) <- call this p
Total 5-card combinations off Strrings that don't include a colorless card = nCr(45-8, 5) <- call this q
Probability of NOT whiffing = 1 - (q/p) = 0.643
I'll emphasize the second number: when you're digging for a threat with Stirrings, you have a 64% chance of getting it.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
No one's mad. We're super excited the deck got so much exposure.
This is a great write up, too. Thanks for putting it together. I've never run Autumn's Veil, but I do run SSG. Any thoughts on what you might sub in if you pulled him from the deck completely? More land search, more ramp, maybe main deck fogs? Sylvan Ranger maybe?
I'll be sure to check out some of your streams. Thanks again.
Heck, you used my Twin list and all I care about was that you did so well. Besides, Magic is such an inherently collaborative game that most of us only care about deck performance, not credit.
Thanks for your reflections and your match notes. I totally agree with you on Wall and Fabricate, but of late I have been reducing my Recross count to 2-3 to make room for a 3rd or 4th Fabricate. Given how important you found the artifacts postboard, I think that the added Fabricates will not only help speed but also help our game 2/3 chances when we can bring in artifacts to hold the line.
I'm ambivalent on SSG. Although SSG has enabled some rare turn 3 wins in my testing, it is an awful topdeck unless you have a very specific configuration of cards. That said, it enables decent turn 1 plays in tandem with Chancellor, and I don't know if 2 of them are that bad in the deck. Just because a card gets boarded out every match does not mean that the card shouldn't be in the maindeck; PV has a good article about that theory somewhere on CF (can't find it off the top of my head). Also, if you are running Cultivate/Reach in any quantity, SSG becomes a lot better.
I'm inclined to add more land search of some kind. My number one reason for not winning on turn 4 isn't an inability to cast and activate Belcher. It's activating Belcher and then flubbing into a land that was left in my deck. Mind you, my current list has cut the Breeding Pool in favor of Stomping Ground, making up for the deficit blue mana by going to 4 BoP, 4 Sprawl, and 3 Hierarch. But even with Ground, I often activate Belcher with 2 lands in my deck on turn 4 because that's about the most I can thin before a turn 4 Belcher activation. And that gives me a pretty high chance of missing on the activation.
Ideally, this deck needs more cost effective land thinning. I considered Evolution Charm for its utility and because it's instant speed, which means we can get the most out of Wall of Roots mana. But, sadly, it isn't a very good card. It's pretty bad, in fact, and good decks should not play bad cards.
Re: Beseech vs. Fabricate
For a while, I was getting excited about Beseech. But then I realized that, at least for me, this deck has one objective: Win on turn 4 with Belcher. Maybe this deck should be more flexible in its objectives, but for me, that's the big one. Beseech is not very good at reaching this objective because of its inability to find Belcher with less than 4 lands in play. That means you can never Beseech a Belcher on turn 2. It means you will often have to tap out on turn 3 to cast Beseech, or at least tap most of your lands. And that means it is much less likely that you can then cast and activate Belcher on turn 4. Beseech is a lot better in a slower game plan where you can win on turn 5 instead (I was using Elves of Deep Shadow for a while to make Beseech a better tutor). But for the fast turn 4 gameplan, which is what I am focusing on (Again, maybe something to reconsider), Beseech just doesn't get the job done like Fabricate.
Have you done much playtesting with this version? I'm very curious as to how this compares to the Fabricate/Breeding Pool version of the deck. In addition, I really like how it makes beatdown a viable backup plan in case Belcher doesn't work for whatever reason.
Some tips for Stirrings:
1) You only want to cast this card when you're on at least 2 lands. If you're on 1 land, practically any other 1-drop is better. If you have no other 1-drops, you should have mulliganed the hand.
2) If you're looking for a wincon with Stirrings, you want to thin your deck of as many lands as possible before casting Stirrings. If you're desperate for that wincon, hitting a land with Stirrings is as good as useless. So try to minimize the number of cards in your deck before doing it.
3) On the other hand, if you'd prefer to have a land in hand over a Wurmcoil/Belcher (because maybe you already have 1 wincon in hand, so an extra is useless), cast Stirrings first.
4) Remember that Stirrings throws the unused cards to the bottom. Sequence correctly. If there's only 1 land in your library, you'd want to cast land tutors first, then cast Stirrings. Not only will the land tutor thin your deck ever so slightly, if you whiff with Stirrings, at least you're 5 cards closer to a wincon.
5) If you have a Belcher out, do not cast Stirrings. What will most likely happen is that you don't find a land in the top 5 cards, and thus reduce your Belcher damage output by 5-10.
6) Above all, just ask yourself these two questions every time you hesitate on Stirrings:
"What do I really want to see with Stirrings?"
"If I don't see that, am I completely screwed?"
These questions will help you decide if you should cast Stirrings or some other spell in your hand.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
How often would you say you win via beatdown compared with Belcher? Belcher is obviously the primary wincon but I'm curious in what situations you'd abandon belcher and go for the beats, as well as the frequency that occurs. Do you only do it vs certain decks, or is it just whichever wincon you hit first is the one you go with?
If you have something like 3-4 lands and Belcher+Wurmcoil in hand, you'd want to cast Wurmcoil first, because it's unlikely that one Belcher activation will be lethal. Wurmcoil buys you some time.
Lectrys: If you compare threat counts:
UG version has: 4 Belcher, 4 Fabricate, 4 Chancellor, 4 Recross
my version has: 4 Belcher, 4 Wurmcoil, 4 Chancellor, 4 Stirrings.
I have just as many threats as the Fabricate version. The difference is that Fabricate is basically a 10-mana (3+4+3) threat compared to Wurmcoil's 6, and Recross vs Stirrings.
My beef with Fabricate/Recross is...well, based on my past experiences with combo decks, 3 mana tutors never make the cut. You'd never see Muddle the Mixture in Storm despite the fact that it can tutor your wincon and counter your opponent's counters, or Drift of Phantasms in Eggs (post-FR it became unnecessary, but even pre-FR it wasn't good enough to make the deck competitive).
In fact, Recross isn't even a tutor per se. Sometimes you have no way of getting out that last Stomping Ground from your library, so it merely acts as a ramp spell that lets you scry 1. If you win the clash, you get Recross back, but you need two more turns before you can see a wincon (one turn to cast Recross again, one turn to draw the wincon off your stacked deck). Even in the best-case scenario, Recross merely puts the card on top of your library, not in your hand.
I think the issue here is that engine combo decks need to be able to win fast, so low-cost diggers that don't always work will beat 3CMC tutors. Most of the time, you either cast the tutor and lose because you can't kill your opponent on time, or you keep the tutor in hand all game and never cast it because your other spells are sufficient for you to win. Either way, you should start thinking of a replacement, because the tutor isn't doing anything for you.
Lastly, don't forget that 64% is only for cases where you do not draw a threat naturally.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
Why don't more builds use Simian Spirit Guide's and Wild Cantor? They look like a natural fit. Individually they both work in favor of what the deck want's to do anyways. Guide lets you do just about anything a turn earlier. Wild Cantor is like a mana bank and it triggers Caravan Vigil Morbid Effect. In a perfect world you could even turn one Forest, Wild Cantor, Caravan, Caravan, Lay of the Land. You could even SSG into Cantor into Caravan and still cast a Utopia Sprawl.
I know all that sounds like a lot, but not at the same time or am I just reaching to far out there?
The problem is, it's not a perfect world. LOL
On a serious note though, somewhere in this thread, people figured out that Simian Spirit Guide and Wild Cantor aren't very good at two things: adding mana over time on their own, or reducing the number of lands in the library on their own. They are great cards if you're in a hurry, but not so great when you are not in a position to win early.
On the works:
Leyline Deck Wins:symbu:Null 'n Void:symbu:
Decks built:
:symg::symb::symr::symw::symu:ChangelingsUWRBG
:symru:16 land Ignite Memories Combo:symru:
:symbu:Hunted Singularity:symbu:
With regards to Wild Cantor, it's just bad on its own. Most of the time it's worse than a mana dork. Wild Cantor gives you mana only once, and that's it. Mana dorks give you mana once per turn, for as long as they stay alive.
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
I'm all for out of the box ideas, but why wouldn't we just play Harrow instead? Same cost for the effect, it's the right color and we don't have to discard. Is the attraction just that he offers repeatable land search?
Did some work tonight goldfishing Izzetmage’s Beat Down plan B deck. Here it is again as a reminder:
I played 30 games on the play. I found it to be almost exactly as consistent as the other decks we’ve tried. It’s still clocking in with an average win on just over turn 5. What’s really exciting about it, of course, is those games where you haven’t won by turn 5, you likely have one or more Wurmcoil Engines or Chancellor of the Tangles in play and are actively beating face with those threats.
Here were my turn win percentages:
Turn 4: 7 (23%)
Turn 5: 10 (33%)
Turn 6: 5 (16%)
Turn 7+: 5 (16%)
I “won” with beatdown 5 times, or about 16 percent of the time. That is, I ended the game after I had attacked with creatures enough times to deal lethal damage. I know that’s not a perfect measurement, but this is just goldfishing. Once, I got out an early Wurmcoil and then won the next turn by top decking ‘Belcher and activating it that same turn. I’d like to believe the wurmcoil would have held any attackers at bay for that crucial extra turn.
It's not a huge bonus of the deck, but one advantage of running mono green is you can set your Utopia Sprawl for green mana, which sometimes helps power out multiple land search spells per turn.
I had only one game where I never drew any threats.
In two more games, I ended up mulliganing to four cards and still did not have a hand I could work with, so I called them game losses. I’m wondering if this deck shouldn’t increase the number of mana dorks just a tad to help with mulligans. Perhaps cut two Into the North for two more elves, or maybe add Birds of Paradise back in.
I’m also concerned about how it would play in a real game against disruption. I should have kept better track, but I believe Ancient Stirrings drew me into a threat twice, and whiffed four times. While it’s clunky, Fabricate really is ‘Belcher 5-7, where Stirrings only might be.
This version of the deck is certainly fun to play, and the extra threat count does provide a little piece of mind when you can’t seem to find ‘Belcher. I think I would rather play a deck that consistently fires ‘Belcher on turn 4, and go all in on that as a WinCon. But in the absence of that, this is a pretty solid alternative.
I'm not ready to give up on what I've started calling "Noble Belcher" (Hierarchs, Birds and Fabricate), but folks should also give this "Beatdown Belcher" a try. (Belcher Engine? Wurm Burp?)
They're different enough that I don't know if there's any hope of ever bringing the two together, but that could also make a neat experiment.
I've touched up the primer a bit (added Izzetmage's Beatdown Belcher and Dailymtg article). If I've missed anything important that should be in the primer then someone please send me a PM, I should get an e-mail notification on that and be able to update.
I do know I'm missing a lot of credit in the special thanks section, haven't updated it in a while. If I've missed you please send me a PM as well, credit where credit is due and all that.
Certainly not mad, great job getting this deck some recognition. I'm still blown away that we made it on the mothership.
If you do, please be sure to post a link in the thread or PM me the details so I can get it added to the "Stop the Presses" section.
GModern Belcher
GGreen Deck Wins
3I'm the King
RBlazeTron
I have the deck built already. I am just testing a few configurations and getting a real feel for the deck prior to making a video. This is a very budget friendly deck and something I feel many players might be looking for to break into modern. After a little digging I found that I had 90% of it in my commons/uncommons. Only really missing the Chancellor's and the Wall of Roots.
One of the most fascinating aspects of this deck is that it can only get better. Standard is always starving for mana acceleration and wizards is generally very generous with new inventive mana dorks.