They're FAR closer than you think. In fact, I'd say that stealer is significantly more useful than seer.
They're both equally unplayable in constructed, but as a common at least stealer has a decent chance of having a meaningful and positive impact on a limited deck.
The chance of an opponent having a T2/3 answer to Dark Seer is far smaller than an opponent having a T3/4 answer to Stealer of Secrets. Also, Stealer can be chumped and gain no value. Seer doesn't have that problem.
As for limited, I only partly agree, but not for the reason you stated. Dark Seer can kill the owner pretty fast with his draw since limited often favors having some number of high-costing cards. If you can muster up a list of small cards in your limited pool with Dark Seer, though, then Dark Seer is far more powerful than Stealer of Secrets.
Clearly I must be missing something with Pain Seer. At best, he comes down T2, T3 he attacks, T4 he draws. What are the odds your opponent can't do 2 damage to him or block him? Even if they can't block him, if he is tapped, they can come back and kill him on their own turn to prevent the draw.
Is he really worth building around? You would need to have a low curve deck with tapping/untapping effects for him to be useful. Springleaf drum loses value if you're ramping into 2/3 CMC cards. Maybe if you scry on your first main phase, attack if it makes sense based on the card on top, and go from there? Losing 4 damage from a desecration demon would hurt.
Thassa's ability costs mana, so you're losing 2 mana, potential life to sneak him through, when you might be better off sneaking something else through.
He's not Bob. Maybe there is a card that will make him viable, but he does nothing on his own -- something you can't say about Bob.
Clearly I must be missing something with Pain Seer. At best, he comes down T2, T3 he attacks, T4 he draws. What are the odds your opponent can't do 2 damage to him or block him? Even if they can't block him, if he is tapped, they can come back and kill him on their own turn to prevent the draw.
Is he really worth building around? You would need to have a low curve deck with tapping/untapping effects for him to be useful. Springleaf drum loses value if you're ramping into 2/3 CMC cards. Maybe if you scry on your first main phase, attack if it makes sense based on the card on top, and go from there? Losing 4 damage from a desecration demon would hurt.
Thassa's ability costs mana, so you're losing 2 mana, potential life to sneak him through, when you might be better off sneaking something else through.
Honestly, I think he sucks without modern/legacy untapping effects, but in that case, why not just use real Bob?
I couldn't agree more with this. Dudes are just wanting Pain Seer to work so badly that they may be getting jaded.
EDIT: put in wrong second card originally. I knew I had it figured out before, then just typed springleaf drum because others were talking about it with this guy.
Seriously think about it. Who in the right mind as a decent MTG player will just let Pain Seer just sit there doing its thing? It's not going to happen.
I couldn't agree more with this. Dudes are just wanting Pain Seer to work so badly that they may be getting jaded.
It's definitely the most overhyped card in the set. I have a feeling many people who buy this for like 10+ $ will Drown in Sorrows
The second overhyped card is Brimaz, King of Oreskos.
The cards is definitely good and there is no denying that but people act like this is on the same powerful as Geist of Saint Traft or Voice of Resurgence which it is not but hey let people throw their money away in hype.
Seriously think about it. Who in the right mind as a decent MTG player will just let Pain Seer just sit there doing its thing? It's not going to happen.
This kind of highlights a bit of the problem with it. Cards like Hidden Strings are quite fun, but at the end of the day they just kind of go "Meeeeeeeeehhhhh" all over the board. It has fun interactions, but the build-up and pay-off really isn't that great to really work that well. You may draw a few cards off of it but it's unlikely the longer the game goes on. You can make a shenaniganny deck with Strings, Springleaf Drum, and other things, but then you really have to wonder what your deck is actually trying to do and how it's going to actually win. If you're going the tempo route, I'd much rather have most any other consistent draw spell. If you're going the aggro route, I'd much rather have something like Blood Scrivener, which actually is much easier to control when and how the draw happens. If you're going Mono-Black, just go Connections and be done with it. The problem is that it's ability is just awkward to try and use effectively.
Wizards has been trying desperately to make a "fair" Bob replacement, but it's becoming abundantly clear that this is just not possible. Bob isn't fair. Nothing about him is. I think it's unfair to compare all the potential Bob replacements to Bob because there will never be something that good. The card is damn-near broken in half for a creature. Wizards has been trying to get cute with their Bobs recently, and it just doesn't pan out. So rather than trying to make a Bob replacement, they should find other uses for the ability.
Duskmantle Seer was one which I actually think was successful at doing this, even though it's practically unplayed everywhere. It's a damn strong card on a damn strong body that suffered due to U/B being almost unplayable in the current standard (Thanks in no small part to an obscene emphasis on Mill and most Cipher cards being just awful). It's not Modern really modern viable, but if standard were more friendly to that color pair I have no doubt it would see play. Go that route rather than trying to make Bob "fair" (As in a 2-mana splashable 2/x dude that has card draw).
To put things back on topic:
I counted all sleeper claims + "positive" comments (subjective) about cards in this thread up to this point, and added them up (I tried to count each person only once, but I might have messed up):
11 - Herald of Torment
9 - Ephara
8 - Courser of Kruphix
5 - Hero of Leina Tower
4 - Scourage of Skola Vale, Whelming WAves
3 - Karametra, Perplexing chimera, Eidolon of Countless Battles
2 - Fated Retribution, Phenax, Fantic of Xenagos, Hunter's Prowess, Oracle of Bones, Satyr Firedancer
1 - Vortex Ele., Phoenix, Spiteful, Peregrination, Everflame Eido, Kiora's follower, Hero of Iroas, Fate Unraveler, Gild, Fellhide Spiritbinder, MOgis, Spirit of the Labyrinth, Odunos River Trawler, Fated Infatuation, Nessian Wild Ravager, Pain Seer, Astral Cornucopia, that tribute 2 4cmc minotaur.
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Please check out my 360 unpowered, non-PW cube!
It's got more than 10 different strategies you can choose from.
Comment about it here.
This argument could be applied to Bob (and a ton of other cards) as well. Is he a bad card because noone will let him sit there doing his thing? Heck, he is even easier to kill (with 1 toughness)...
The difference between 1 toughness and 2 toughness is negligible in almost every format. Particularly in a format where the only removal that matters is burn, and the only burn that really matters as removal is Magma Jet and Lightning Bolt (I.E., Modern). In standard, it's the same.
The thing with Bob is that he goes off every turn, regardless of set-up. He just does what he does. No need to set him up at all, no other cards needed.
The problem with Pain Seer is that it requires you to do things, and jump through hoops, to do what he does.
And frankly, the ability isn't good enough to jump through those hoops. By making it so that you can reliably use his ability even once a turn, you have to devote a good portion of your deck to those tricks. Which means that you may find yourself in that awkward situation where you are jumping through hoops to draw cards that let you jump through hoops to draw cards.
I will say he's not Mindreaver levels of absurdity. That is just jumping through hoops to do almost nothing practical. But it does reach a certain level of ridiculousness, and when you couple potential massive life-loss on the necessity to jump through hoops to even really use him at all, it's not good. Bob's life loss isn't as important as he just does. He does what he does, and always works. Bob is too good at what he does, hence why all of the "almost Bobs" we have been getting. But the almost-Bobs don't really work very well. Case in point is Blood Scrivener, which was pre-ordering for about $7-8. See how well that panned out. It's the same situation.
This argument could be applied to Bob (and a ton of other cards) as well. Is he a bad card because noone will let him sit there doing his thing? Heck, he is even easier to kill (with 1 toughness)...
The thing with Bob is that a smart Bob player will accept Bob dying to everything but combat damage. Modern and Legacy have plenty of decks with a dearth of removal (mainly fast combo decks, but Modern Pod and Affinity and Legacy Death and Taxes and Maverick tend to sport 6 or fewer actual removal spells, so Bob gets away scot-free fairly often against them).
A smart but unlucky Pain Seer player has to accept that it has a pretty realistic chance of dying to blockers and combat damage (along with the usual removal suite).
You're drawing more cards, more mana to cast those extra cards helps you get far ahead and win. Yes Pain Seer becomes a mana dork but at that point you have an army.
So how do you get big creatures if you are punished for high CMC cards? You bestow. Everything is cheap even if the bestow cost isn't
Hmm, I'm really liking Herald of Torment especially at $1 a piece because I feel that it has a lot of potential in the right deck, of course it's no Nightveil but I think it would go in a different type of deck then Nightveil.
Fate Unraveler is also a sideboard card I'm pretty excited for because it gives mono black a bit more resilience to U/W/x deck's, and at the worst it takes one life or forces them to wipe or waste a D-Sphere on a lesser threat.
Whelming Wave also seem's under overwhelmingly under-rated, it's a board wipe for 4 and could be used on a more casual level in some sort of weird tribal deck. But I think it's not getting that much attention because well we have verdict. ( btw bad pun sorry had too)
You're drawing more cards, more mana to cast those extra cards helps you get far ahead and win. Yes Pain Seer becomes a mana dork but at that point you have an army.
So how do you get big creatures if you are punished for high CMC cards? You bestow. Everything is cheap even if the bestow cost isn't
You're drawing more cards, more mana to cast those extra cards helps you get far ahead and win. Yes Pain Seer becomes a mana dork but at that point you have an army.
So how do you get big creatures if you are punished for high CMC cards? You bestow. Everything is cheap even if the bestow cost isn't
You're still casting two cards to create a draw engine that bleeds you out.
With Springleaf Drum and Pain Seer, the Seer isn't going to be blocking anything so you're pretty much always going to be using two cards to generate one mana.
Even if it you get it online, you need to draw three cards with Pain Seer before it actually gives you a net card advantage or a net mana advantage, since you already spent two cards, and 1 + 1B to get it running. 3 cards could do a ton of damage to you. And meanwhile, your low curve deck is quickly losing ground to midrange and control decks -- if they haven't finished you off yet.
I stand by this as a metric when I look for sleepers:
1. Could it be played outside of Standard?
This is the most important question because it gives a solid guage of how powerful the card is overall. The biggest problem with evaluating sleepers is considering context and potential. Ultimately, you have to look at both. Some things will have context that might help them with things you would expect to see in a block and others may have potential that would help them a block down the road. Since you don't know what's going to be in that block. Looking at what's happened previously generally helps.
If it could be played out of standard:
What are the values of some similar cards from the past and how are they being used?
How important will this be outside of standard?
So, now we're gaining more detail on the card's overall power level to assess what price it should be at. From there it's just a case of, what would this be valued at if it weren't in standard and add about 20% to get what it should be at in standard.
If it would not be played outside of standard:
What existing decks would this immediately go into? how many copies would go in?
if the answer is none or 1 or 2 decks playing singletons or sideboard. Odds are the card isn't going to be worth much.
Are there other key things in the mechanics that make a new deck possible?
This is the last thing I want to think about. Formats change a lot, and new decks tend to be behind even if they do have potential to be the best just because people haven't had as much time to work on them. Archetypes in a format don't tend to change fast. Decks that have already had people working on them tend to win because they're more refined, even if a new deck would have an advantage given both the same development and testing.
There is some merit to this argument if the deck is powerful enough, but it tends to be very unlikely that you're going to find a new deck that powerful on a card that's undervalued.
This is why a lot of times we find what I like to call last hoorah decks, like Mythic Conscription or Elf-Drazi that weren't explored because there was already a stable front-runner, but were discovered in the F-it stage at the end of standard. And they ended up being better than standard's front runner at the time.
Usually if you're finding a card that's undervalued it's because it doesn't look big and flashy, but has an important or strong incremental effect that would help a current strategy push over the top.
The last bit in picking them from there is considering where they are now. based on where you see them ending up. I also suggest considering risk level in your judgments. Something that's part of a new deck type would be high risk, so I generally wouldn't jump on it unless it's really low right now. Something that plays in legacy or modern is a solid safe bet even at mid values. These are really low to no risk, but don't tend to pay off in large percentages. Something for a current archetype at mid or low values can pay off in a good percentage and doesn't have a really high risk value.
So, all that said here are my picks:
Gainers
Spirit of the Labyrinth - Low Risk, Mid Investment, some growth potential (should safely end up around $9 getting them now at around $6)
Chromanticore: High Risk, Low Investment, Lots of potential
he doesn't play anything now, and his mana is really killer. I doubt he'll see play, but his ability is incredibly strong, so if thdoes end up being a way to play him he'll be amazing.
Scry Lands: No Risk, Mid Investment, Solid Buys. They're currently around $5 on tcgplayer.com, Once shocks rotate out in October expect these to be a big deal. In the meantime they're not going to drop below that.
Courser of Kruphix: Low Risk, Low-Mid Investment, Good potential. This is probably my #1 pick for safe growth. Gettimg them at around $4 from tcgplayer seems like a no-brainer. He doesn't let you ramp, but does let you fix your draws really well. He's just amazing value for 3 mana.
Eidolon of Countless Battles: Low-Mid Risk, Low Investment, Good Potential
$3 from tcgplayer, plays great with Voice of Resurgence. Could see limited play out of standard.
Perplexing Chimera: No Risk, Low Investment, High Potential
you can get as many as you want at 50 cents a piece and his ability is incredibly powerful. He's also a real headache for figuring out how things resolve for players who don't know their rules inside and out (so, it might take a little while to see him in action. Have to wait for peoples heads to stop spinning). His fit for the above would probably put him in higher risk, but he has huge casual appeal, so if you're staying in the game a while, you can just hang onto him and he'll hit a few dollars from that easily. The fact that his ability is a perfect counter to a number of strategies in modern (cough-Tron-cough) makes me think he could end up being a pretty big deal though. Top it off with the fact that he's dirt cheap everywhere and I don't see how you can lose.
Wash:
Herald of Torment: This seems solid, but I only see him as a 2-of in mono-b. I don't think it's going to affect his price a lot.
Kiora, the crashing Wave: She seems solid enough. She provides incremental gains, but doesn't overkill. I could see her sitting around $15 (so she's a little over in the pre-sales). She doesn't really have a great immediate fit though.
Satyr Firedancer: I've seen some people playing U/R and he's definitely perfect for the deck and a 4-of. That said, the deck is fringe and will probably still be (even with him, Guttersnipe, Spellheart Chimera and Young Pyromancer).
Flops:
Pain Seer: people want to see this card work, but it's just not good. Drop them.
Brimaz, King of Oreskos: I cannot believe people are paying $30 for him. he's not going to be breaking anything.
The new gods: I'm just putting them all together. The first wave started around the same as this one and after the initial fluctuation all dropped. The new wave doesn't look even as good as the first, although I could see a Karametra finding some play and I know people want to build around Phenax. At least the prices have it right that Xenegos is the strongest in and of himself. That said, it's not certain that he's going to work the best in context.
This card is nothing like Bob. Bob can just sit there and not have to successfully attack or be combo'd with marginal cards in order to fulfill his purpose.
The amount of things that have to go right for pain seer to draw even a single card (and you have to pay life = to cmc, which seems completely unnecessary given how hard it is to get this card online in the first place) is a couple too many hoops to jump through for a marginal effect.
Its pretty cool how anyone underastimates Pain Seer cause of vacuum-Evaluation, keep it up guys, so i can get them cheap
But he really is a card to keep an eye on, cause he is the first controlable Bob we got (yes being able to Control the trigger is a huge advantage this one has to both Bob and Bloodscrievener).
He might not be good this Standard, and he might not be worth alot, but like Duskmantle Seer he is almost garuanteed to get Spots were he can shine.
You can easily control the Blood Scrivener trigger. Just don't go Hellbent.
To some extent, you can also control the Bob trigger, but you have to jump through a lot more hoops for it (incur card disadvantage by wasting removal, incur tempo loss by using planeswalker minus abilities, make Bob die to combat damage), and you always end up losing Bob when "controlling" his trigger.
From my experiences playing Underworld Connections, Phyrexian Arena, and Erebos, I don't think being able to control the trigger is that big an advantage, especially when the trigger fires so late.
And the trigger firing so late matters. I've only found that Underworld Connections is slightly worse than Arena (in decks with enough basic lands that won't just die to every nonbasic land hate in multiple formats) because Connections can draw a card the turn it ETB, while Arena can't (and yes, Connections eating mana matters that much, too). Pain Seer only gets going 1 turn later than Bob and has to swing into the format (or get abused with mediocre cards). At least Blood Scrivener doesn't have to swing into the format.
You can easily control the Blood Scrivener trigger. Just don't go Hellbent.
To some extent, you can also control the Bob trigger, but you have to jump through a lot more hoops for it (incur card disadvantage by wasting removal, incur tempo loss by using planeswalker minus abilities, make Bob die to combat damage), and you always end up losing Bob when "controlling" his trigger.
From my experiences playing Underworld Connections, Phyrexian Arena, and Erebos, I don't think being able to control the trigger is that big an advantage, especially when the trigger fires so late.
And the trigger firing so late matters. I've only found that Underworld Connections is slightly worse than Arena (in decks with enough basic lands that won't just die to every nonbasic land hate in multiple formats) because Connections can draw a card the turn it ETB, while Arena can't (and yes, Connections eating mana matters that much, too). Pain Seer only gets going 1 turn later than Bob and has to swing into the format (or get abused with mediocre cards). At least Blood Scrivener doesn't have to swing into the format.
If Bob gave your opponent 2 draw steps before he triggered he'd be a dollar bin rare. Just like Pain Seer. I think that's really the crux of the problem with Pain Seer (and inspired as a mechanic in constructed).
Fated Intervention seems like a sleeper to me. 2x 3/3 tokens for 5 is a good value and the potential Scry is just gravy. Pretty much any green deck is going to have little problem paying GGG. Not saying it's a chase rare, but it might be worth picking up for it's current <$1 price
Courser of Kruphix can't really be called a sleeper, but it's going to be a standard staple in nearlyl all green decks for the next two years so I think $4 is a good bargain
I don't get why people keep underestimating Pain Seer. Just because it doesn't fit in every black deck doesn't make it bad. Sure, it won't make the mono-black decklist, but that doesn't make it bad, it just doesn't fit. It works great with Rakdos, as aggro into card draw helps the longevity of your rush (and you don't care about health lost). I am running him in my Orzhov human deck, and having him convert to an equivalent zombie 2/2 if he does in fact get blocked and/or killed. He will stabilize at around 5 and I bet he will go up a bit after pro tour.
Pain Seer won't see a good home because it isn't needed or worth a creature slot. Go ahead and think you can attack with it on turn 3 and hope there isn't any blockers or have a stupid amount of things to go right just to draw a card. Keep dreaming.
Pain Seer won't see a good home because it isn't needed or worth a creature slot. Go ahead and think you can attack with it on turn 3 and hope there isn't any blockers or have a stupid amount of things to go right just to draw a card. Keep dreaming.
The whole last page of suggestions were wrong. Courser of Kruphix will not be a staple in anything. Role-player...maybe? It does not scream staple at at all.
I expect Pain Seer to see even less play than that.
And Oracle of Bones will see zero play. If it were a guaranteed 5/3, it wouldn't even see play in most decks, and it is *much* worse than that.
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As for limited, I only partly agree, but not for the reason you stated. Dark Seer can kill the owner pretty fast with his draw since limited often favors having some number of high-costing cards. If you can muster up a list of small cards in your limited pool with Dark Seer, though, then Dark Seer is far more powerful than Stealer of Secrets.
Is he really worth building around? You would need to have a low curve deck with tapping/untapping effects for him to be useful. Springleaf drum loses value if you're ramping into 2/3 CMC cards. Maybe if you scry on your first main phase, attack if it makes sense based on the card on top, and go from there? Losing 4 damage from a desecration demon would hurt.
Thassa's ability costs mana, so you're losing 2 mana, potential life to sneak him through, when you might be better off sneaking something else through.
He's not Bob. Maybe there is a card that will make him viable, but he does nothing on his own -- something you can't say about Bob.
I couldn't agree more with this. Dudes are just wanting Pain Seer to work so badly that they may be getting jaded.
STANDARD
UB Midrange
Modern
U-Tron
EDIT: put in wrong second card originally. I knew I had it figured out before, then just typed springleaf drum because others were talking about it with this guy.
If you hate the deck, I'm probably playing it!
STANDARD
UB Midrange
Modern
U-Tron
It's definitely the most overhyped card in the set. I have a feeling many people who buy this for like 10+ $ will Drown in Sorrows
The second overhyped card is Brimaz, King of Oreskos.
The cards is definitely good and there is no denying that but people act like this is on the same powerful as Geist of Saint Traft or Voice of Resurgence which it is not but hey let people throw their money away in hype.
This kind of highlights a bit of the problem with it. Cards like Hidden Strings are quite fun, but at the end of the day they just kind of go "Meeeeeeeeehhhhh" all over the board. It has fun interactions, but the build-up and pay-off really isn't that great to really work that well. You may draw a few cards off of it but it's unlikely the longer the game goes on. You can make a shenaniganny deck with Strings, Springleaf Drum, and other things, but then you really have to wonder what your deck is actually trying to do and how it's going to actually win. If you're going the tempo route, I'd much rather have most any other consistent draw spell. If you're going the aggro route, I'd much rather have something like Blood Scrivener, which actually is much easier to control when and how the draw happens. If you're going Mono-Black, just go Connections and be done with it. The problem is that it's ability is just awkward to try and use effectively.
Wizards has been trying desperately to make a "fair" Bob replacement, but it's becoming abundantly clear that this is just not possible. Bob isn't fair. Nothing about him is. I think it's unfair to compare all the potential Bob replacements to Bob because there will never be something that good. The card is damn-near broken in half for a creature. Wizards has been trying to get cute with their Bobs recently, and it just doesn't pan out. So rather than trying to make a Bob replacement, they should find other uses for the ability.
Duskmantle Seer was one which I actually think was successful at doing this, even though it's practically unplayed everywhere. It's a damn strong card on a damn strong body that suffered due to U/B being almost unplayable in the current standard (Thanks in no small part to an obscene emphasis on Mill and most Cipher cards being just awful). It's not Modern really modern viable, but if standard were more friendly to that color pair I have no doubt it would see play. Go that route rather than trying to make Bob "fair" (As in a 2-mana splashable 2/x dude that has card draw).
I counted all sleeper claims + "positive" comments (subjective) about cards in this thread up to this point, and added them up (I tried to count each person only once, but I might have messed up):
11 - Herald of Torment
9 - Ephara
8 - Courser of Kruphix
5 - Hero of Leina Tower
4 - Scourage of Skola Vale, Whelming WAves
3 - Karametra, Perplexing chimera, Eidolon of Countless Battles
2 - Fated Retribution, Phenax, Fantic of Xenagos, Hunter's Prowess, Oracle of Bones, Satyr Firedancer
1 - Vortex Ele., Phoenix, Spiteful, Peregrination, Everflame Eido, Kiora's follower, Hero of Iroas, Fate Unraveler, Gild, Fellhide Spiritbinder, MOgis, Spirit of the Labyrinth, Odunos River Trawler, Fated Infatuation, Nessian Wild Ravager, Pain Seer, Astral Cornucopia, that tribute 2 4cmc minotaur.
It's got more than 10 different strategies you can choose from.
Comment about it here.
The difference between 1 toughness and 2 toughness is negligible in almost every format. Particularly in a format where the only removal that matters is burn, and the only burn that really matters as removal is Magma Jet and Lightning Bolt (I.E., Modern). In standard, it's the same.
The thing with Bob is that he goes off every turn, regardless of set-up. He just does what he does. No need to set him up at all, no other cards needed.
The problem with Pain Seer is that it requires you to do things, and jump through hoops, to do what he does.
And frankly, the ability isn't good enough to jump through those hoops. By making it so that you can reliably use his ability even once a turn, you have to devote a good portion of your deck to those tricks. Which means that you may find yourself in that awkward situation where you are jumping through hoops to draw cards that let you jump through hoops to draw cards.
I will say he's not Mindreaver levels of absurdity. That is just jumping through hoops to do almost nothing practical. But it does reach a certain level of ridiculousness, and when you couple potential massive life-loss on the necessity to jump through hoops to even really use him at all, it's not good. Bob's life loss isn't as important as he just does. He does what he does, and always works. Bob is too good at what he does, hence why all of the "almost Bobs" we have been getting. But the almost-Bobs don't really work very well. Case in point is Blood Scrivener, which was pre-ordering for about $7-8. See how well that panned out. It's the same situation.
The thing with Bob is that a smart Bob player will accept Bob dying to everything but combat damage. Modern and Legacy have plenty of decks with a dearth of removal (mainly fast combo decks, but Modern Pod and Affinity and Legacy Death and Taxes and Maverick tend to sport 6 or fewer actual removal spells, so Bob gets away scot-free fairly often against them).
A smart but unlucky Pain Seer player has to accept that it has a pretty realistic chance of dying to blockers and combat damage (along with the usual removal suite).
Why?
You're drawing more cards, more mana to cast those extra cards helps you get far ahead and win. Yes Pain Seer becomes a mana dork but at that point you have an army.
So how do you get big creatures if you are punished for high CMC cards? You bestow. Everything is cheap even if the bestow cost isn't
Orzhov humans seems to be the go to choice here for Hero of Iroas, Xathrid Necromancer and Eidolon of Countless Battles.
Fate Unraveler is also a sideboard card I'm pretty excited for because it gives mono black a bit more resilience to U/W/x deck's, and at the worst it takes one life or forces them to wipe or waste a D-Sphere on a lesser threat.
Whelming Wave also seem's under overwhelmingly under-rated, it's a board wipe for 4 and could be used on a more casual level in some sort of weird tribal deck. But I think it's not getting that much attention because well we have verdict. ( btw bad pun sorry had too)
But both Pain Seer and Drum are mediocre by themselves. Drawing one without the other is just bad.
URU/R TempoRU
http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/ur-counterburn-26-10-13-1/
Standard:
RBB/R MadnessBR
http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/21-07-16-imI-br-vampires/
Caleb Durward:
You're still casting two cards to create a draw engine that bleeds you out.
With Springleaf Drum and Pain Seer, the Seer isn't going to be blocking anything so you're pretty much always going to be using two cards to generate one mana.
Even if it you get it online, you need to draw three cards with Pain Seer before it actually gives you a net card advantage or a net mana advantage, since you already spent two cards, and 1 + 1B to get it running. 3 cards could do a ton of damage to you. And meanwhile, your low curve deck is quickly losing ground to midrange and control decks -- if they haven't finished you off yet.
1. Could it be played outside of Standard?
If it could be played out of standard:
What are the values of some similar cards from the past and how are they being used?
How important will this be outside of standard?
So, now we're gaining more detail on the card's overall power level to assess what price it should be at. From there it's just a case of, what would this be valued at if it weren't in standard and add about 20% to get what it should be at in standard.
If it would not be played outside of standard:
What existing decks would this immediately go into? how many copies would go in?
if the answer is none or 1 or 2 decks playing singletons or sideboard. Odds are the card isn't going to be worth much.
Are there other key things in the mechanics that make a new deck possible?
This is the last thing I want to think about. Formats change a lot, and new decks tend to be behind even if they do have potential to be the best just because people haven't had as much time to work on them. Archetypes in a format don't tend to change fast. Decks that have already had people working on them tend to win because they're more refined, even if a new deck would have an advantage given both the same development and testing.
There is some merit to this argument if the deck is powerful enough, but it tends to be very unlikely that you're going to find a new deck that powerful on a card that's undervalued.
This is why a lot of times we find what I like to call last hoorah decks, like Mythic Conscription or Elf-Drazi that weren't explored because there was already a stable front-runner, but were discovered in the F-it stage at the end of standard. And they ended up being better than standard's front runner at the time.
Usually if you're finding a card that's undervalued it's because it doesn't look big and flashy, but has an important or strong incremental effect that would help a current strategy push over the top.
The last bit in picking them from there is considering where they are now. based on where you see them ending up. I also suggest considering risk level in your judgments. Something that's part of a new deck type would be high risk, so I generally wouldn't jump on it unless it's really low right now. Something that plays in legacy or modern is a solid safe bet even at mid values. These are really low to no risk, but don't tend to pay off in large percentages. Something for a current archetype at mid or low values can pay off in a good percentage and doesn't have a really high risk value.
So, all that said here are my picks:
Gainers
Spirit of the Labyrinth - Low Risk, Mid Investment, some growth potential (should safely end up around $9 getting them now at around $6)
Chromanticore: High Risk, Low Investment, Lots of potential
he doesn't play anything now, and his mana is really killer. I doubt he'll see play, but his ability is incredibly strong, so if thdoes end up being a way to play him he'll be amazing.
Scry Lands: No Risk, Mid Investment, Solid Buys. They're currently around $5 on tcgplayer.com, Once shocks rotate out in October expect these to be a big deal. In the meantime they're not going to drop below that.
Courser of Kruphix: Low Risk, Low-Mid Investment, Good potential. This is probably my #1 pick for safe growth. Gettimg them at around $4 from tcgplayer seems like a no-brainer. He doesn't let you ramp, but does let you fix your draws really well. He's just amazing value for 3 mana.
Eidolon of Countless Battles: Low-Mid Risk, Low Investment, Good Potential
$3 from tcgplayer, plays great with Voice of Resurgence. Could see limited play out of standard.
Perplexing Chimera: No Risk, Low Investment, High Potential
you can get as many as you want at 50 cents a piece and his ability is incredibly powerful. He's also a real headache for figuring out how things resolve for players who don't know their rules inside and out (so, it might take a little while to see him in action. Have to wait for peoples heads to stop spinning). His fit for the above would probably put him in higher risk, but he has huge casual appeal, so if you're staying in the game a while, you can just hang onto him and he'll hit a few dollars from that easily. The fact that his ability is a perfect counter to a number of strategies in modern (cough-Tron-cough) makes me think he could end up being a pretty big deal though. Top it off with the fact that he's dirt cheap everywhere and I don't see how you can lose.
Wash:
Herald of Torment: This seems solid, but I only see him as a 2-of in mono-b. I don't think it's going to affect his price a lot.
Kiora, the crashing Wave: She seems solid enough. She provides incremental gains, but doesn't overkill. I could see her sitting around $15 (so she's a little over in the pre-sales). She doesn't really have a great immediate fit though.
Satyr Firedancer: I've seen some people playing U/R and he's definitely perfect for the deck and a 4-of. That said, the deck is fringe and will probably still be (even with him, Guttersnipe, Spellheart Chimera and Young Pyromancer).
Flops:
Pain Seer: people want to see this card work, but it's just not good. Drop them.
Brimaz, King of Oreskos: I cannot believe people are paying $30 for him. he's not going to be breaking anything.
The new gods: I'm just putting them all together. The first wave started around the same as this one and after the initial fluctuation all dropped. The new wave doesn't look even as good as the first, although I could see a Karametra finding some play and I know people want to build around Phenax. At least the prices have it right that Xenegos is the strongest in and of himself. That said, it's not certain that he's going to work the best in context.
If you hate the deck, I'm probably playing it!
This card is nothing like Bob. Bob can just sit there and not have to successfully attack or be combo'd with marginal cards in order to fulfill his purpose.
The amount of things that have to go right for pain seer to draw even a single card (and you have to pay life = to cmc, which seems completely unnecessary given how hard it is to get this card online in the first place) is a couple too many hoops to jump through for a marginal effect.
You can easily control the Blood Scrivener trigger. Just don't go Hellbent.
To some extent, you can also control the Bob trigger, but you have to jump through a lot more hoops for it (incur card disadvantage by wasting removal, incur tempo loss by using planeswalker minus abilities, make Bob die to combat damage), and you always end up losing Bob when "controlling" his trigger.
From my experiences playing Underworld Connections, Phyrexian Arena, and Erebos, I don't think being able to control the trigger is that big an advantage, especially when the trigger fires so late.
And the trigger firing so late matters. I've only found that Underworld Connections is slightly worse than Arena (in decks with enough basic lands that won't just die to every nonbasic land hate in multiple formats) because Connections can draw a card the turn it ETB, while Arena can't (and yes, Connections eating mana matters that much, too). Pain Seer only gets going 1 turn later than Bob and has to swing into the format (or get abused with mediocre cards). At least Blood Scrivener doesn't have to swing into the format.
The only thing NOT going for him is he's a lackluster top-deck when you're hellbent.
Even then he's 4 (2 devotion) for a 3/1 haste. That isn't terrible.
I just think saying "I get a free Warleader's Helix or a 5/3 haste for 4" is really really good.
And he was wonderful at the Pre-release for me.
If Bob gave your opponent 2 draw steps before he triggered he'd be a dollar bin rare. Just like Pain Seer. I think that's really the crux of the problem with Pain Seer (and inspired as a mechanic in constructed).
Sig courtesy of DOLZero
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Courser of Kruphix can't really be called a sleeper, but it's going to be a standard staple in nearlyl all green decks for the next two years so I think $4 is a good bargain
Standard:
GU Prophet
Legacy:
WBU Shared Fate
Trades
STANDARD
UB Midrange
Modern
U-Tron
here's a card to look at with pain seer: freed from the real
If you're going to attempt a powerful two card combo that's vulnerable to creature removal in Modern, it might as well be this one.
I expect Pain Seer to see even less play than that.
And Oracle of Bones will see zero play. If it were a guaranteed 5/3, it wouldn't even see play in most decks, and it is *much* worse than that.