In the monthly Personal Summary thing Wizards sends out for MTGO there was a list of the top 10 first picks in Gatecrash with the highest win rates. There were a few surprises, imo:
Most Frequently 1st Picked Cards by 8-4 Gatecrash Winners
Obzedat, Ghost Council
Aurelia's Fury
Firemane Avenger
Crocanura
Simic Fluxmage
Knight of Obligation
Syndic of Tithes
Ember Beast
Aurelia, the Warleader
Zameck Guildmage
Obzedat: Not surprising at all.
Aurelia's: No surprise.
Firemane: No surprise.
Corcanura: Corcanura is the highest rated uncommon? I would have never guessed. I knew it was good and am always happy to have one, but I usually don't even glance at it if I see something like Knight of Obligation.
Simic Fluxmage: Another big surprise. I've never picked this card and certainly have never seen it played against me. What?
Knight of Obligation: Obviously strong.
Syndic: Extort bear is strong.
Ember Beast: Surprised to see this so high up. I knew it was strong but did not consider it first pickable.
Aurelia: A little surprised that she's below the choice uncommons but at 6 mana and a restrictive cost it's understandable.
Zameck: Surprised me. Just seems so slow for this format. Is Simic secretly really good?
Crocanura: Crocanura is the highest rated uncommon?
No, it's a Common.
I agree with you that it's a surprising feature of the list, though. I would have expected it to be Grisly Spectacle or Mugging.
However, looking at the rest of the list I think it's clear what's going on: Simic has been sufficiently underdrafted all season that a disproportionately high number of Simic decks go 3-0. So it doesn't actually mean these are good first picks. Quite the reverse, in fact, because presumably when two players try the "force Simic" stunt at the same table they both do badly.
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<Limited Clan>
I've drafted Simic a couple of times and I think Zameck Guildmage is way better than Simic Fluxmage. You rarely use his first ability, but the second one can draw you lots of cards.
What I never thought is Crocanura was considered that good.
I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions from this. This list of course doesn't say that Crocanura is the best common. It's a list of the cards with the highest win%. This translates into: cards that are picked higher by players that win a lot than by players that lose a lot. Obvious good cards like Grisly Spectacle don't make the list, because winning and losing players pick it (more or less) equally high. So I'd say it's mostly a list of cards that are rated too low by 'bad' players. So is Simic Fluxmage stronger than Zameck Guildmage? No, but it is (slightly) more underrated.
You really just need to embrace the rage. I keep a small colony of hamsters next to my computer and every time I lose a match to mana screw I throw one against the wall.
It's a list of the cards with the highest win%. This translates into: cards that are picked higher by players that win a lot than by players that lose a lot.
No, I don't think that's right.
Where players who lose a lot pick the card is completely irrelevant. All that matters is: given that you first pick this card, what (empirically) is your chance of winning the draft?
So it is noteworthy that (eg.) Grisly Salvage is not there.
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<Limited Clan>
Where players who lose a lot pick the card is completely irrelevant. All that matters is: given that you first pick this card, what (empirically) is your chance of winning the draft?
So it is noteworthy that (eg.) Grisly Salvage is not there.
Okay, I misunderstood the OP, which said "with the highest win rates", which I took to mean highest win%. So my earlier post should be ignored. I now checked it in my own mail; it says:
Most Frequently 1st Picked Cards by 8-4 Gatecrash Winners
It's still not entirely clear to me what exactly the statistic represents. I would read this as: among all 8-4 wins, what is the number of times card X got first picked? But that seems really strange; how can Ember Beast be up there, while (I assume) it's not even first picked often? What you say is something different again, which would better explain Ember Beast being up there - people first picking Ember Beast apparently have a dedicated plan and have a higher chance to win the draft. But that doesn't seem to be what the title of the statistic is saying.
You really just need to embrace the rage. I keep a small colony of hamsters next to my computer and every time I lose a match to mana screw I throw one against the wall.
Obzedat and Aurelia's Fury are incredibly surprising to be topping this list. Because they are mythic rares.
Remember, this list does not delineate rarity, meaning that this list doesn't weight the fact that mythic rares are significantly less frequently picked than commons, simply because they aren't there.
Previous lists were assumed to look at every 8-4 result, It leads us to believe that Fury and Obzedat have incredibly high win rates, since they have such a small relative sample size.
Says something about this list that is pretty densely populated by mythics and rares (just under half).
I assume this data goes back to the beginning of the format? Because early in the format you could dominate tables by forcing either Orzhov or Simic while everyone else was forcing Boros based on prerelease results.
Just look at some of the cards that are "surprises"
Crocanura -- Pretty much the ideal Simic card in a Boros-forcing environment
Knight of Oblivion -- A tremendous Orzhov creature if your opponent is trying to force through 3/2s.
Syndic of Tithes -- Comes down early to trade against Aggro / perfectly good for its Extort trigger otherwise.
Fluxmage & Zameck just indicate that Simic was underdrafted for so long.
Honestly Ember Beast is the biggest surprise for me. I've had such marginal experiences with that card.
I wonder if the statistics given is purely pack 1 first picks, or all packs. While I'd probably never first pick a Crocanura pack 1, I can see myself taking it from a lackluster pack in packs 2 or 3 when I'm already in green.
It's interesting to note that many of the mythic picks are also money picks. I'd snap pick an Obzedat or Aurelia in 90% of drafts in packs 2 or 3.
Crocanura -- Pretty much the ideal Simic card in a Boros-forcing environment
This (except I wouldn't say it's only a simic card, it's fine in any deck with green). If there is any surprise with this card it's that people are surprise it's here (or even more the people who question if it's good... Really?). It's a 3 mana giant spider who can grow even bigger. With people moaning about how the format is unstoppable aggro, it only makes sense that the extremely effective blocker who can often shut down that aggro would be picked high (and win).
I'm still trying to figure out if the statistic is:
% of time this card was first picked, out of all the 3-0 decks
or
% of time when this card was first picked, that the deck went on to 3-0
I assume it has to be the latter, because otherwise there's no way that mythics would be near the top. Even if every deck that started with Obzedat won the table, it would still lose to most commons just on frequency.
Assuming that's the case, the title of the data is very misleading. It should be First Picks that Result in Decks Most Likely to 3-0.
I think you are right, Phyrre. Got to be the second one because mythics can't cause the first scenario to happen really. It would seem then that Obzedat is the number one windmill slam in the set, and that sounds quite likely to me.
I assume it has to be the latter, because otherwise there's no way that mythics would be near the top. Even if every deck that started with Obzedat won the table, it would still lose to most commons just on frequency.
Assuming that's the case, the title of the data is very misleading. It should be First Picks that Result in Decks Most Likely to 3-0.
That actually does make sense, and it also provides an explanation for Crocanura as well. This is a fairly innocuous card, so only an experienced player would realize the value of first picking it. The card might have placed so highly on the list simply because the few players that first picked it on occasion were actually really good at drafting and playing.
Just to analyze, if we are assuming Phyrre's second guess was right, these are the guilds these first picks give you the option of going into. These are ranked in order of likelihood
Obzedat, Ghost Council Solidly Orhzov Aurelia's Fury Boros
Orhzov (second)
Gruul (third) Firemane Avenger Boros
Orhzov (tied for second)
Gruul (tied for second) Crocanura Simic
Gruul (second) Simic Fluxmage Simic
Dimir (distant second) Knight of Obligation Orhzov
Boros (distant second) Syndic of Tithes Orhzov (tied)
Boros (tied) Ember Beast Boros (tied)
Gruul (tied) Aurelia, the Warleader Solidly Boros Zameck Guildmage Solidly Simic
Anyone disagree with this assessment?
If I assign point values (3 points for primary guilds, 2 for second, and 1 for third/distant second) we roughly get
Boros = 16
Orhzov = 13
Simic = 9
Gruul = 8
Dimir = 1
As we can see, every common to make the list leads fairly well into multiple guilds.
This is entirely my personal bias talking here but I honestly don't see Aurelia's Fury as a Boros card (just like I don't see Clan Defiance as a Gruul card). If I first pick it I in no way feel I need (or even want) to be in Boros (or Gruul in Clan's case). Those are picks IMO that are almost "free" in that you'll play them in any deck that is even one of those colors (and then splash the other). There is also the issue of card effectiveness. Many Boros deck really don't make great use of Fury. An Orzhov/Grull deck that plans to play a longer game would make better use of it. So not only would I question Gruul being below Orzhov (why would one want it more then the other?) I honestly wouldn't rank Boros over either in that card's card.
The other one I question is Croco. Why is it primarily Simic? Yes it has the guild mechanic but that in no way stops Gruul from wanting/using it (much like Simic will gladly take Slaughterhorn). Why for example is Croco primarily Simic when Ember Beast (or Syndic) is equal on its two guilds?
My theory of why we see cards like Croconura or Ember Beast over other bombs which probably contribute to a deck's win rating to a higher degree is that more skilled drafters have taken them first.
Not even that these skilled drafters are forcing the given archetypes. I'm sure someone looking to force Simic will pick Master Biomancer over Zameck Guildmage most of the time. That card doesn't appear here because the less skilled drafters, the ones with no chance of getting 1st, are able to recognize the quality of that mythic.
This is a testament to the Mythics/Rares that did make the list for they remain on there despite the likelihood that the less skilled drafters also took them.
By this logic, this list in no way indicates a specific pick order. (eg.) You should't take Croconura over Aurelia. This list just shows that the ratio of skilled/nonskilled drafters who firs picked the card is much larger for the croc than the warleader.
The list really is a great (and slightly humorous) semi-random combination of sleeper cards and gigantic bombs.
Yeah, someone's going to have to break down the methodology for these stats.
Since Ozbedat has >1:4 chance of even being in your draft, the list above likely refers to something like, "3-0 Winning players, when presented with all of the cards they could draft, took Ozbedat 100% of the time when available, followed by Furry 98% of the time when it was available... ...Zameck Guildmage 61% of the time, etc."
There's otherwise no way to explain that he's #1, unless no rare is drafted at least 51% of the time that he appears first pick --- and I can't imagine that at last half of all people offered a P1P1 Reckoner don't take him.
But that leaves another question. Who would take Ember Beast above Reckoner? If they're not doing that, then it can't be weighted.
I wish I could provide a better explanation but I just copy pasted this from the email and this is all of the information that's there. Considering that the Mythics are at the top, I'm pretty sure the actual statistic is "% Chance of 3-0'ing an 8-4 based on first pick" than than "% time card are first picked by winners of 8-4", since it's impossible for the Mythics to be in the top if that were the case as you've all pointed out already.
Every time one of these threads pops up, it re-infuriates me that WotC has this mountain of fascinating data and 1) won't publish it and 2) can't even communicate the results out properly!
I also think it's a little bit unfair that presumably some folks at WotC with access to this data can also draft in public queues. Talk about an advantage!
I concur that there is no way the list could represent the list of most likely first pick from winners of 8-4. There is no way not a single removal would not make the list.
(There is also no way ember beast could make the list. How many 8-4 queues could be won on 1st picking that?)
It's got to be: which card has the highest win percentage after it's been first-picked. Now it explains all the weird cards. Only an extremely good drafter could both first-pick them and win.
My goal will now be to first-pick something unplayable and never first-pickable, one by one, until I win. Then that card's win % will be 100%, unless I fail every single time.
First-pick bioshift, here I come!
PS: so, anyone up to make a list of cards that likely have never been first-picked?
Most Frequently 1st Picked Cards by 8-4 Gatecrash Winners
Obzedat, Ghost Council
Aurelia's Fury
Firemane Avenger
Crocanura
Simic Fluxmage
Knight of Obligation
Syndic of Tithes
Ember Beast
Aurelia, the Warleader
Zameck Guildmage
Obzedat: Not surprising at all.
Aurelia's: No surprise.
Firemane: No surprise.
Corcanura: Corcanura is the highest rated uncommon? I would have never guessed. I knew it was good and am always happy to have one, but I usually don't even glance at it if I see something like Knight of Obligation.
Simic Fluxmage: Another big surprise. I've never picked this card and certainly have never seen it played against me. What?
Knight of Obligation: Obviously strong.
Syndic: Extort bear is strong.
Ember Beast: Surprised to see this so high up. I knew it was strong but did not consider it first pickable.
Aurelia: A little surprised that she's below the choice uncommons but at 6 mana and a restrictive cost it's understandable.
Zameck: Surprised me. Just seems so slow for this format. Is Simic secretly really good?
No, it's a Common.
I agree with you that it's a surprising feature of the list, though. I would have expected it to be Grisly Spectacle or Mugging.
However, looking at the rest of the list I think it's clear what's going on: Simic has been sufficiently underdrafted all season that a disproportionately high number of Simic decks go 3-0. So it doesn't actually mean these are good first picks. Quite the reverse, in fact, because presumably when two players try the "force Simic" stunt at the same table they both do badly.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
I wonder if there's some way of limiting it to commons and uncs only.
What I never thought is Crocanura was considered that good.
I think people are drawing the wrong conclusions from this. This list of course doesn't say that Crocanura is the best common. It's a list of the cards with the highest win%. This translates into: cards that are picked higher by players that win a lot than by players that lose a lot. Obvious good cards like Grisly Spectacle don't make the list, because winning and losing players pick it (more or less) equally high. So I'd say it's mostly a list of cards that are rated too low by 'bad' players. So is Simic Fluxmage stronger than Zameck Guildmage? No, but it is (slightly) more underrated.No, I don't think that's right.
Where players who lose a lot pick the card is completely irrelevant. All that matters is: given that you first pick this card, what (empirically) is your chance of winning the draft?
So it is noteworthy that (eg.) Grisly Salvage is not there.
(I'm on on this site much anymore. If you want to get in touch it's probably best to email me: dom@heffalumps.org)
Forum Awards: Best Writer 2005, Best Limited Strategist 2005-2012
5CB PotM - June 2005, November 2005, February 2006, April 2008, May 2008, Feb 2009
MTGSalvation Articles: 1-20, plus guest appearance on MTGCast #86!
<Limited Clan>
Okay, I misunderstood the OP, which said "with the highest win rates", which I took to mean highest win%. So my earlier post should be ignored. I now checked it in my own mail; it says:
Most Frequently 1st Picked Cards by 8-4 Gatecrash Winners
It's still not entirely clear to me what exactly the statistic represents. I would read this as: among all 8-4 wins, what is the number of times card X got first picked? But that seems really strange; how can Ember Beast be up there, while (I assume) it's not even first picked often? What you say is something different again, which would better explain Ember Beast being up there - people first picking Ember Beast apparently have a dedicated plan and have a higher chance to win the draft. But that doesn't seem to be what the title of the statistic is saying.
Remember, this list does not delineate rarity, meaning that this list doesn't weight the fact that mythic rares are significantly less frequently picked than commons, simply because they aren't there.
Previous lists were assumed to look at every 8-4 result, It leads us to believe that Fury and Obzedat have incredibly high win rates, since they have such a small relative sample size.
Says something about this list that is pretty densely populated by mythics and rares (just under half).
Just look at some of the cards that are "surprises"
Crocanura -- Pretty much the ideal Simic card in a Boros-forcing environment
Knight of Oblivion -- A tremendous Orzhov creature if your opponent is trying to force through 3/2s.
Syndic of Tithes -- Comes down early to trade against Aggro / perfectly good for its Extort trigger otherwise.
Fluxmage & Zameck just indicate that Simic was underdrafted for so long.
Honestly Ember Beast is the biggest surprise for me. I've had such marginal experiences with that card.
It's interesting to note that many of the mythic picks are also money picks. I'd snap pick an Obzedat or Aurelia in 90% of drafts in packs 2 or 3.
This (except I wouldn't say it's only a simic card, it's fine in any deck with green). If there is any surprise with this card it's that people are surprise it's here (or even more the people who question if it's good... Really?). It's a 3 mana giant spider who can grow even bigger. With people moaning about how the format is unstoppable aggro, it only makes sense that the extremely effective blocker who can often shut down that aggro would be picked high (and win).
% of time this card was first picked, out of all the 3-0 decks
or
% of time when this card was first picked, that the deck went on to 3-0
I assume it has to be the latter, because otherwise there's no way that mythics would be near the top. Even if every deck that started with Obzedat won the table, it would still lose to most commons just on frequency.
Assuming that's the case, the title of the data is very misleading. It should be First Picks that Result in Decks Most Likely to 3-0.
That actually does make sense, and it also provides an explanation for Crocanura as well. This is a fairly innocuous card, so only an experienced player would realize the value of first picking it. The card might have placed so highly on the list simply because the few players that first picked it on occasion were actually really good at drafting and playing.
Obzedat, Ghost Council
Solidly Orhzov
Aurelia's Fury
Boros
Orhzov (second)
Gruul (third)
Firemane Avenger
Boros
Orhzov (tied for second)
Gruul (tied for second)
Crocanura
Simic
Gruul (second)
Simic Fluxmage
Simic
Dimir (distant second)
Knight of Obligation
Orhzov
Boros (distant second)
Syndic of Tithes
Orhzov (tied)
Boros (tied)
Ember Beast
Boros (tied)
Gruul (tied)
Aurelia, the Warleader
Solidly Boros
Zameck Guildmage
Solidly Simic
Anyone disagree with this assessment?
If I assign point values (3 points for primary guilds, 2 for second, and 1 for third/distant second) we roughly get
Boros = 16
Orhzov = 13
Simic = 9
Gruul = 8
Dimir = 1
As we can see, every common to make the list leads fairly well into multiple guilds.
The other one I question is Croco. Why is it primarily Simic? Yes it has the guild mechanic but that in no way stops Gruul from wanting/using it (much like Simic will gladly take Slaughterhorn). Why for example is Croco primarily Simic when Ember Beast (or Syndic) is equal on its two guilds?
Not even that these skilled drafters are forcing the given archetypes. I'm sure someone looking to force Simic will pick Master Biomancer over Zameck Guildmage most of the time. That card doesn't appear here because the less skilled drafters, the ones with no chance of getting 1st, are able to recognize the quality of that mythic.
This is a testament to the Mythics/Rares that did make the list for they remain on there despite the likelihood that the less skilled drafters also took them.
By this logic, this list in no way indicates a specific pick order. (eg.) You should't take Croconura over Aurelia. This list just shows that the ratio of skilled/nonskilled drafters who firs picked the card is much larger for the croc than the warleader.
The list really is a great (and slightly humorous) semi-random combination of sleeper cards and gigantic bombs.
Since Ozbedat has >1:4 chance of even being in your draft, the list above likely refers to something like, "3-0 Winning players, when presented with all of the cards they could draft, took Ozbedat 100% of the time when available, followed by Furry 98% of the time when it was available... ...Zameck Guildmage 61% of the time, etc."
There's otherwise no way to explain that he's #1, unless no rare is drafted at least 51% of the time that he appears first pick --- and I can't imagine that at last half of all people offered a P1P1 Reckoner don't take him.
But that leaves another question. Who would take Ember Beast above Reckoner? If they're not doing that, then it can't be weighted.
WTF are these listed by?!?
I also think it's a little bit unfair that presumably some folks at WotC with access to this data can also draft in public queues. Talk about an advantage!
(There is also no way ember beast could make the list. How many 8-4 queues could be won on 1st picking that?)
It's got to be: which card has the highest win percentage after it's been first-picked. Now it explains all the weird cards. Only an extremely good drafter could both first-pick them and win.
My goal will now be to first-pick something unplayable and never first-pickable, one by one, until I win. Then that card's win % will be 100%, unless I fail every single time.
First-pick bioshift, here I come!
PS: so, anyone up to make a list of cards that likely have never been first-picked?
Generals meant to be drafted first in a single pack of 6 cards.
And here is the actual cube, meant to be drafted in 4 regular sized packs. (60 card decks)
Thanks to goof-grabs and morons, there are likely no such cards.
It actually is. These little snippets are usually just thrown into promotional e-mails with no explanation.
It'd be really helpful if someone could copy-paste exactly what it said.
Generals meant to be drafted first in a single pack of 6 cards.
And here is the actual cube, meant to be drafted in 4 regular sized packs. (60 card decks)