*crawls from a pool of blood and pulls a shuriken from between his eyes*
It's been too long since I've actually been in a game on this site. Yeah, I know. It's only been a couple weeks. I'm addicted, sue me.
Hey loran. Stop being wrong. kthanx
The only mass claim that anyone should be advocating is stritcly that of Kingdom. No character mass claim should happen 'til the endgame, obviously. That said, I think we should do a nation claim, as there is substantial gain in it. Although no mass name claim should happen, people will be claiming as the game continues. That's what happens when you pressure them, they claim. It's how the game is played. When that happens, it is beneficial for us if the mafia have already committed to one group. It limits the number of characters they can claim, so when they have to false claim, that can't just come up with whatever's convinient. They've already committed to a group. It may not single handedly catch us scum, but it can help.
And the potential loss? True, we don't know what the mafia knows, but I see no reason to believe that there is any link between power roles and nation. What else could they learn to help them? And the Nuetral-who-wins-by-killing-certain-people role is an uncommon role that rarely wins, and isn't nesaccarily anti-town(see SC mafia). We should be chasing the mafia, not running from imaginary roles that are hardly a threat. Y'all got any better excuses to oppose this plan?
I have a better reason. Who says that our main objective is to eliminate the mafia? Sure it has to get done, and it is worth working together as a town, but it isnt necessarily our goal.
Nope, I dont think that I would have to clarify to someone who is "pro-town." If you are a member of a non-mafia kingdom and you dont know what I am talking about you should try harder to figure it out.
Um...what? We are playing mafia, right? Would you like to clarify a bit there sgdre?
As much as i disagree with CC's comments about nation-claiming, Sgdre's comment reeks. Sounds to me like a nonstandard win condition (Either alternate or additional win condition).
EBWODP, uhh, i now think i understand sgdre's comment, but even so, i believe you are misinterpreting your pm.
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
loran: Your argument is that making the mafia lie is not helpful, but you are completely and utterly wrong. Getting the mafia to lie is EVERYTHING in a game of mafia. As you play more, you will begin to learn that one lie ALWAYS leads to another, no matter how innocuous it seemed at first. That is the fundamental reason why I think this is a good idea.
Quote from epeeguy »
2.) We have some number of unaligned players in the game, and no idea how many of those there are. One of which is potentially an SK (again, it's very possible that was a Vig misfire).
So?
Quote from epeeguy »
3.) We have no idea of the composition of this game. With some number of unaligned players, there's no way to know what the break down of actual Wu, Shu or Wei players are. Besides which, I can't imagine that Fayul would make that such an easy thing so that we could analyze it and thus raise flags on certain claims.
The point isn't to break the game; the point is to give us some cracks to start analyzing. I don't believe that any form of mass claim will break the game on its own, but I also don't believe that anything that guarantees that the mafia have to lie will not be helpful.
Quote from epeeguy »
4.) The Mafia being able to potentially use faction to identify targets among power roles is a very, very dangerous risk to the Town. Especially when we can't really use a mass Nation claim without following it up with something else.
I disagree. First of all, we CAN use a nation claim; it will be a constant reference point for verification of consistency for everything else that happens in the game, drastically narrowing scum choices. Second of all, a nation claim should not expose power roles, because we have no reason to believe that abilities are mirrored, or that one nation is much more powerful than another. In fact, we have strong reason to believe otherwise.
Quote from epeeguy »
5.) Given that Fayul hinted that the game might survive a mass Name claim (which is about the only thing that goes with a mass Nation claim that I can think of), that is a big strike against the plan.
Answered above. This is simple naivete on your part.
Quote from epeeguy »
I guess my biggest problem right now is that you've gone on the offensive against those people who raised questions on your plan, as opposed to providing more support/logic for your own plan. Even voting for Ged at this point is somewhat questionable, as you could have just as easily brought more strong points for your plan. And I do have to wonder why you would choose the vote as opposed to raising more points for your plan (especially when you make a few questionable points about its strength).
FOS carrion pigeons
I dare you to look for a post of mine in thread that hasn't contributed a major point to my argument. Go ahead. I'll wait.
I voted for Ged because he seemed to be deliberately misrepresenting the situation, and I certainly won't apologize for that. However, I think I've found something even more interesting in your point #1.
Quote from epeeguy »
1.) We have three different Nations, no idea if each Nation has a specific goal of its on, or how it relates to the other two Nations.
Anyone with a standard WC in this game from at least one of the innocent nations ought to see a major fault with this argument. The fact of the matter is that each nation (besides Wei) does NOT have a specific goal of its own. Only a member of a nation that did would speculate this. Seeing as I don't believe that my opposite nation has a specific goal, since it is not mirrored in my own nation, I'm going to happily and decisively Unvote,Vote Epeeguy.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
My argument CP was not that making the mafia lie wasnt helpful, but that there is such wide margin of error in this game (I dont know the amount of charcter,s but someoen mentioned like a hundred) that i do not think it would be difficult for the mafia to claim a nation and then be able to use a fake-role claim of a character from that nation.
Furthermore, there is clearly a role related issue with the nations besides Wei, as otherwise, why mention that so and so is SHU rather than TOWNIE upon death? I doubt its just flavor personally. And since im pretty sure Shu and Wu dont have nation dependent win conditions (at least i dont seem to), im assuming a third party does.
*Sigh*, I don't know. If you guys wanted to do a mass nation-claim Id go along, but i am not in favor of such a thing still.
Meanwhile, id love to hear more from epeeguy and Sgdre.
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Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
*don’t let me write things while taking breaks from playing Exalted. Just -don’t-.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
I dunno if it's that conclusive cp. Specialty game and whatnot. People can have different win conditions to their allies. epee may need some watching, but I wouldn't send him swinging for this.
I'd vote loran, but loran's just guilty of assuming that he knows everything. Dear loran: just because YOU don't know anything that would help catch mafia who false-claim doesn't mean WE, the town as a whole, don't know anything. And also, forcing the mafia into outright lies = ++ for the town in the long run, sometimes even the short run (some people are HORRIBLE liars).
Alright, I at least am convinced that a nation claim is likely to benefit, but unlikely to hurt, the town. So I am amenable to a nation claim at this point, I suppose.
Also, I myself am not that suspicious of epeeguy, but that could easily change.
It means that your claim that the chance of catching scum being 25% is a completely meaningless, inaccurate number. Odd given that you had problems with Ged's statistics and their accuracy.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
The point isn't to break the game; the point is to give us some cracks to start analyzing. I don't believe that any form of mass claim will break the game on its own, but I also don't believe that anything that guarantees that the mafia have to lie will not be helpful.
I don't believe I said it would break the game. I simply raised the point that I doubted Fayul would make it so easy that we would be able to analyze any kind of break down in the number of players in either Wu or Shu to determine who may or may not be lying about their affiliation. Whereas the Wei would be able to know a lot more about the distribution than anyone else; which is an advantage to the Mafia.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
I disagree. First of all, we CAN use a nation claim; it will be a constant reference point for verification of consistency for everything else that happens in the game, drastically narrowing scum choices.
So, basically what you are suggesting is that this is simply a start in the right direction, in order to narrow down scum claims? That's a far cry from your initial argument that it could catch scum on its own, and is much closer to what others have said about using it conjunction with a second claim of some type.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Second of all, a nation claim should not expose power roles, because we have no reason to believe that abilities are mirrored, or that one nation is much more powerful than another. In fact, we have strong reason to believe otherwise.
So, in a game where Nation and Names could potentially display a great amount of information about what role a player might have in this game, you believe that there is absolutely no risk at all in giving up each players' Nation? Or that the Mafia won't be able to turn it against us?
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Answered above. This is simple naivete on your part.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
I dare you to look for a post of mine in thread that hasn't contributed a major point to my argument. Go ahead. I'll wait.
CP, seriously, you've spent more time attacking me and Ged than defending your own plan. This is really the first post where you've made an argument for the value of your plan, as opposed to simply questioning the detractors.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Anyone with a standard WC in this game from at least one of the innocent nations ought to see a major fault with this argument. The fact of the matter is that each nation (besides Wei) does NOT have a specific goal of its own. Only a member of a nation that did would speculate this. Seeing as I don't believe that my opposite nation has a specific goal, since it is not mirrored in my own nation, I'm going to happily and decisively Unvote,Vote Epeeguy.
Better proof of scum is not to be found, fellas.
You're correct, all the members on one side should have one goal... In a normal game. In a normal game, I would expect the goal to remain the same throughout the game and never to change. However, when I got my role PM, there was a single word in it that made me question if that was entirely true.
Can you tell me what that word was? Maybe I'm unique in that I believe that this is an important tidbit of role information that may greatly affect the dynamics of the game as it progresses. If that belief makes me scummy, then I suggest you go ahead and get everyone else to vote to banish me.
I guess what I really find striking about all this is that you're very quick to vote for me; despite already having picked up on my not-so-subtle claim from my first post. I would tend to think that you would have understood what exactly that claim means, and that it definitely means I am not scummy (not that I can prove it, since the one person who can prove it is dead). So, why vote for me knowing that?
It means that your claim that the chance of catching scum being 25% is a completely meaningless, inaccurate number. Odd given that you had problems with Ged's statistics and their accuracy.
No, that number is not meaningless. Just because there are people who may not be able to claim a specific nation doesn't mean my estimation is completely off. My number is very much a lower bound.
Quote from epeeguy »
I don't believe I said it would break the game. I simply raised the point that I doubted Fayul would make it so easy that we would be able to analyze any kind of break down in the number of players in either Wu or Shu to determine who may or may not be lying about their affiliation. Whereas the Wei would be able to know a lot more about the distribution than anyone else; which is an advantage to the Mafia.
I didn't say you said it would break the game.
But Fayul has no need to take measures against a strategy that wouldn't break the game, now would she? This argument is not a valid one.
Quote from epeeguy »
So, basically what you are suggesting is that this is simply a start in the right direction, in order to narrow down scum claims? That's a far cry from your initial argument that it could catch scum on its own, and is much closer to what others have said about using it conjunction with a second claim of some type.
It CAN catch scum on its own. And I am NOT recommending any form of nameclaim from anyone at this point. But claims will happen, and when they do, at whatever time, this will become an important issue to touch back with.
Quote from epeeguy »
So, in a game where Nation and Names could potentially display a great amount of information about what role a player might have in this game, you believe that there is absolutely no risk at all in giving up each players' Nation? Or that the Mafia won't be able to turn it against us?
I've honestly tried to come up with a reasonable way to think that nations on their own have some indication of people's roles, and I just can't. I'd be interested to hear what you think would indicate people's roles. Every reasonable way I can think of to set up the game, knowing what I know about my win condition, depends on there being a reasonable, non-mirrored, power split between the two nations.
Hypothetically, one of the nations could be like 3 members and be a mason group, or something, and everyone else could belong to the other. Somehow, I doubt it, though. Even if it were the case, it would not prevent the efficacy of a nation claim (in fact it would make it even better).
Quote from epeeguy »
CP, seriously, you've spent more time attacking me and Ged than defending your own plan. This is really the first post where you've made an argument for the value of your plan, as opposed to simply questioning the detractors.
Still waiting...
C'mon, give me a post number.
Quote from epeeguy »
You're correct, all the members on one side should have one goal... In a normal game. In a normal game, I would expect the goal to remain the same throughout the game and never to change. However, when I got my role PM, there was a single word in it that made me question if that was entirely true.
Can you tell me what that word was? Maybe I'm unique in that I believe that this is an important tidbit of role information that may greatly affect the dynamics of the game as it progresses. If that belief makes me scummy, then I suggest you go ahead and get everyone else to vote to banish me.
If you mean the word "Wei," which all I can imagine that you mean, not only has Fayul already spoiled that, but it has already been commented on and speculated about multiple times in the thread already as well. This does nothing for you.
Quote from epeeguy »
I guess what I really find striking about all this is that you're very quick to vote for me; despite already having picked up on my not-so-subtle claim from my first post. I would tend to think that you would have understood what exactly that claim means, and that it definitely means I am not scummy (not that I can prove it, since the one person who can prove it is dead). So, why vote for me knowing that?
I would not have voted for you, except that you clearly do not have the knowledge that a non-mafioso ought to have. I would have happily debated with you the merits of the plan - and I still will - but you've already given away that you're scum, so I see no reason not to vote you.
Your claim doesn't give me any reason to believe that you aren't lying, and it certainly doesn't give you a way to weasel out of a lack of understanding about the town WC.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
If you all think this will lead anyware you can choose to follow through with it, but I'm not nation claiming you can lynch me first. I refuse to believe it will be of any use and it could easily harm us.
Guys, we're getting dangerously close to crossing the line of "directly quoting from PM".
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
@ CC: If the word is the one that I think it is, I doubt that it is limited to only "pro-town" roles.
Anyone with a standard WC in this game from at least one of the innocent nations ought to see a major fault with this argument. The fact of the matter is that each nation (besides Wei) does NOT have a specific goal of its own. Only a member of a nation that did would speculate this. Seeing as I don't believe that my opposite nation has a specific goal, since it is not mirrored in my own nation, I'm going to happily and decisively Unvote,Vote Epeeguy.
Better proof of scum is not to be found, fellas
Here CP shares info that I dont think he would have as Wei/individual.
I would like to point out Kenji's reaction to everyone. FOS Kenji
EWP: Hmmm... maybe I have the wrong word
* sgdre runs off to check his PM
EBWODP: Nvm, I am pretty sure that I had the word epee was talking about. I got confused about who asked it by CC. It doesnt really demonstrate wei from non wei, and I wouldnt be suprised if there were non-wei, non-individuals who didnt have that word in their role PM.
It CAN catch scum on its own. And I am NOT recommending any form of nameclaim from anyone at this point. But claims will happen, and when they do, at whatever time, this will become an important issue to touch back with.
No, it doesn't. As you yourself said, it only provides a reference for subsequent things we might do. So, on its own, there is no way it can be used to catch scum. It's simply there as a reference for everyone to use, and the Mafia are going to get more of a benefit initially than we are; if only because they can use that to narrow down who would be on which side. And since Role Names are probably allocated based on Nation, it might provide a stepping stone for them to identify possible targets.
Even if we do use it later on, I still think it's pretty weak. RotTK has a large ensemble of characters that can be drawn from, and there are possibly some less well known ones in this game to throw us off such an approach.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
If you mean the word "Wei," which all I can imagine that you mean, not only has Fayul already spoiled that, but it has already been commented on and speculated about multiple times in the thread already as well. This does nothing for you.
It wasn't that one. But, since it appears that you see what I mean, I won't press the matter further.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
I would not have voted for you, except that you clearly do not have the knowledge that a non-mafioso ought to have. I would have happily debated with you the merits of the plan - and I still will - but you've already given away that you're scum, so I see no reason not to vote you.
Your claim doesn't give me any reason to believe that you aren't lying, and it certainly doesn't give you a way to weasel out of a lack of understanding about the town WC.
Why, as Mafia, would I even try to make that claim? I'm a much better player than you are giving me credit for here, as I know the amount of suspicion I would get for claiming what I claimed. And to do it on Day 1? That's even dumber, as no Mafia would use it except as a last resort. And even then, it still probably wouldn't work. I'd basically have given myself up without a fight, and the Town would have an easy lynch.
For those who didn't get it from my first post, yes I've not-so-subtly claimed Mason with Machin Shin. And, since he's dead, he can't independently confirm it, nor do I even have a chance to confirm myself as the Inspector is also dead. My only plan for Day 1 was to simply post that information and see how many people attacked it immediately, as a way to gauge reaction and use it later. Not the best plan in the world, but the only one I could think of. =P
I still have concerns about your votes though and the way you went after both me and Ged (especially me, given that you were one of the first to comment on my not-so-subtle claim). So, my FOS remains for the time being. I'm not nearly confident enough to vote, given what is going on, but I will be watching.
I wouldn't be suprised if everyone had it in their role PM and we're making it out to be bigger then it is. Assuming we're all talking about the same thing, that is. I'm pretty sure we are.
I wouldn't be suprised if everyone had it in their role PM and we're making it out to be bigger then it is. Assuming we're all talking about the same thing, that is. I'm pretty sure we are.
Actually, I would be surprised. Because I have no reason to believe that one group would even suspect what I've hinted at.
@Epeeguy: your argument for why a mafia wouldn't claim what you claimed is purest WIFOM. It's like, the promised land of deception, where WIFOM runs throughout it like milk and honey. It's refined and purified to the point where it's toxic just to be within 10 yards of it.
Honestly, claiming that a claim that should get you lynched if you were mafia wouldn't get you lynched if you weren't mafia is just silly.
As for your claim that a nation claim can't catch scum, saying it won't make it so. Give me a reason, please. I've given multiple reasons why it WILL help, and a reason why it CAN catch scum on its own. You saying, "No, it doesn't," doesn't contribute.
And since you seem so obsessed with believing that I'm trying to lynch the people who disagree with me, I suppose I'll defend myself.
I voted for Ged because he misrepresented the meaning of a statistic he quoted. I did not vote for him because he disagreed with me. I stated that at the time. He said it was a mistake. I kept my vote on to make the point that his statistic was WRONG. (I notice that you seem to be relying on his misrepresentation to continue your opposition to a nation-claim plan.)
I voted for you because I believed that I had caught you in a lie. The fact that you demonstrated to me that I was mistaken was what led me to unvote. I definitely think you could be scum, but I currently have no reason to be voting for you. So I'm not. However, I do strongly disagree with you. Many of your points are unsupported either by logic or by the discussion we've had so far. If it gets to the point where I believe that you are actively misrepresenting the circumstances around the points that you argue, I may find my vote wandering over in your direction again. For now, I'm willing to believe that you are just failing to see the benefits for which I'm arguing, at which point, I suggest you look to CC's comments, Raf's comments, and Az's comments, all of whom have expressed support for this plan, and all of whom have the experience and technical expertise in the game to justify their support.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I think c_p's clearly presented the evidence thus far for a nation claim, and I am fully behind it. Even if the mafia all successfully pull of faking a nation, and none are caught, we've forced them to lie.
Also, from today until Saturday I won't be having much time around here.
@Epeeguy: your argument for why a mafia wouldn't claim what you claimed is purest WIFOM. It's like, the promised land of deception, where WIFOM runs throughout it like milk and honey. It's refined and purified to the point where it's toxic just to be within 10 yards of it.
You said yourself it was unhelpful, but not scummy per se, to have done what I did (Post 20). So, if there's something scummy about what I did, then please make your argument. Otherwise, your comments here are rather trite.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
As for your claim that a nation claim can't catch scum, saying it won't make it so. Give me a reason, please. I've given multiple reasons why it WILL help, and a reason why it CAN catch scum on its own. You saying, "No, it doesn't," doesn't contribute.
And saying it will somehow catch scum doesn't make it so either.
As far as I can tell, you've only really made two solid arguments for what it would do. One is in Post 27, when you posted the chances to catch scum as being 25% (which I then questioned and got us to here) and then in Post 59, where you said:
"First of all, we CAN use a nation claim; it will be a constant reference point for verification of consistency for everything else that happens in the game, drastically narrowing scum choices."
This does not (at least not to me) demonstrate that a Nation claim, on its own, will catch scum. If anything, it only further illustrates that it's just a piece of a more detailed strategy. And, I do have to question how much information we want to release that quickly, when it doesn't appear to have an immediate benefit to the Town.
If you've made more points that I'm missing, by all means point them out to me. Because, in rereading your previous posts, I can only find those two.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
And since you seem so obsessed with believing that I'm trying to lynch the people who disagree with me, I suppose I'll defend myself.
Honestly, you're making a bigger deal of this than me right now. I simply made a comment on something that appeared off to me in your approach to Ged and me. It still does appear off to me, but it's too early to make any kind of case of it.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Many of your points are unsupported either by logic or by the discussion we've had so far.
I don't think there was anything in Post 44 (where I raised my questioned on your statistics) that is "unsupported by logic". If anything, I raised those because I think it was your logic and conclusions that were questionable; and I still think that they are.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
If it gets to the point where I believe that you are actively misrepresenting the circumstances around the points that you argue, I may find my vote wandering over in your direction again.
I'm not going to keep harping on this. I've made my points against a mass claim of this nature, and if no one wants to buy them and the Town wants to pursue this approach, then so be it. But I'll let those who haven't spoken voice their opinion.
EWP: Well, at least one person we haven't heard from until now has posted his opinion.
You said yourself it was unhelpful, but not scummy per se, to have done what I did (Post 20). So, if there's something scummy about what I did, then please make your argument. Otherwise, your comments here are rather trite.
And again, your point is? If I thought it was scummy, I would have said so. All I'm saying at the moment is that it certainly doesn't make you look more townie.
Quote from epeeguy »
And saying it will somehow catch scum doesn't make it so either.
As far as I can tell, you've only really made two solid arguments for what it would do. One is in Post 27, when you posted the chances to catch scum as being 25% (which I then questioned and got us to here) and then in Post 59, where you said:
"First of all, we CAN use a nation claim; it will be a constant reference point for verification of consistency for everything else that happens in the game, drastically narrowing scum choices."
This does not (at least not to me) demonstrate that a Nation claim, on its own, will catch scum. If anything, it only further illustrates that it's just a piece of a more detailed strategy. And, I do have to question how much information we want to release that quickly, when it doesn't appear to have an immediate benefit to the Town.
If you've made more points that I'm missing, by all means point them out to me. Because, in rereading your previous posts, I can only find those two.
There is approximately a 25% chance for any given scum to mess up and be caught. I gave adequate support for this argument, although I acknowledge that it is a very rough estimate. Are you going to argue that something that provides that kind of success rate, or anything close to it at all, isn't worth doing? If you are, the only plausible reason for doing so is in assessing the risk it gives to the town much more liberally than I am, so I want to hear it.
Even Ged said he was wrong on that point.
Quote from epeeguy »
Honestly, you're making a bigger deal of this than me right now. I simply made a comment on something that appeared off to me in your approach to Ged and me. It still does appear off to me, but it's too early to make any kind of case of it.
Good, I'm glad we're off the subject. Do me a favor, though. If/when you decide to attack me again, don't refer back to the points you've already made without also refuting my answers. I don't look forward to another battle like you did to Puzzle a few games back.
Quote from epeeguy »
I don't think there was anything in Post 44 (where I raised my questioned on your statistics) that is "unsupported by logic". If anything, I raised those because I think it was your logic and conclusions that were questionable; and I still think that they are.
Your point #2 is bad logic because you assume that there are enough non-nation-claimers to drastically change my numbers. Do the math; unless the number is more than 3, my estimate is very reasonable. Even if it goes as high as 6 (which I very much doubt), it isn't out of the realm of strong possibility that a scum could mess up.
Your point #3 is bad logic because you assume that we can't draw assumptions from the game based on these claims, which is blatantly and obviously not true. For the most part, we should be able to get a pretty good idea of the setup that way, and if we're off by 1 or 2 people, further evidence will demonstrate it, eventually. You somehow seem to believe that the mafia are capable of completely changes the contours of the game, when the whole point of a nation claim is that it severely limits the mafias choices about how to react. There are only a few things they can do, and none of them will turn up as especially astonishing. We will learn a great deal about the setup this way.
Your point #4 is bad logic because you don't make a logical link between national identity and power roles. You assume it. I have directly argued that there is no such link, and I have yet to see you, or anyone, refute it.
Your point #5 is good logic, but not strong logic. We should not be basing our decisions on things like that.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I think I'm one of the last to check in. Game opened up yesterday, when I had no time to do anything but school.
Anyways... CP and Epee have started a rivalry rivaling the Epee/Puzzle. Boo to both of you, for hijacking this thread. As for the nation claim, if it has the possibility of netting a Mafioso, it's fine by me. On a side note, I was reading through the character lists I got heavily confused with all the Ying-Yang, Wang Bong, etc. names. So I think all of us are excused for confusing the Kamigawa-esque names.
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What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
yaaa... Epee and CP really gotta stop doing that. If you have something new to add to the discussion do so. Quoting the other guys entire post and responding to each individual part should only be reserved for special cases. All it is doing now is clogging the thread.
There is approximately a 25% chance for any given scum to mess up and be caught. I gave adequate support for this argument, although I acknowledge that it is a very rough estimate.
Yeah, but how do you arrive at that number? Because that's what I don't understand. It's how you get to this that has me concerned.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Your point #2 is bad logic because you assume that there are enough non-nation-claimers to drastically change my numbers. Do the math; unless the number is more than 3, my estimate is very reasonable. Even if it goes as high as 6 (which I very much doubt), it isn't out of the realm of strong possibility that a scum could mess up.
Fair point, and I won't dispute that perhaps it isn't enough to throw the distribution off. However, we can't completely know if it is a high or low number, and it would be inappropriate (at least in my mind) to not consider the possibility that it could be high enough to throw things off.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
Your point #4 is bad logic because you don't make a logical link between national identity and power roles. You assume it. I have directly argued that there is no such link, and I have yet to see you, or anyone, refute it.
All I can say is that I think that Nation is a pretty big clue as to who people may be; and that ability is probably going to go along with name. If you don't feel that's logical, then that's fine. But I see nothing illogical about the presumption that Name, Nation and Ability might somehow be related.
Anyhow, based on the last couple of posts, if that's how people think I'm going to try to play this game, then I'm sorry to have heard that. I'd hoped to have an enjoyable game, and don't feel that that will happen now. At least not with me in it.
Respectfully, therefore, I have decided to resign and ask to be replaced. I don't want to taint this game anymore that I apparently already have.
Yeah, but how do you arrive at that number? Because that's what I don't understand. It's how you get to this that has me concerned.
Fair point, and I won't dispute that perhaps it isn't enough to throw the distribution off. However, we can't completely know if it is a high or low number, and it would be inappropriate (at least in my mind) to not consider the possibility that it could be high enough to throw things off.
All I can say is that I think that Nation is a pretty big clue as to who people may be; and that ability is probably going to go along with name. If you don't feel that's logical, then that's fine. But I see nothing illogical about the presumption that Name, Nation and Ability might somehow be related.
Anyhow, based on the last couple of posts, if that's how people think I'm going to try to play this game, then I'm sorry to have heard that. I'd hoped to have an enjoyable game, and don't feel that that will happen now. At least not with me in it.
Respectfully, therefore, I have decided to resign and ask to be replaced. I don't want to taint this game anymore that I apparently already have.
Your method of posting can be annoying at times, but it's no reason for you to get replaced.
swinkee has been tentative contacted to replace, but if epee wants to rescind his resignation at any time before swinkee accepts that would be okay.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Yeah, please dont leave Epeeguy. Look at the posts made targetting me by certain players in this game (CP and RafK, who made a post that made me want to kill him before i calmed down smartly.))
There does seem to be a lil more hostile attitude than id like here, but it is no reason to resign here.
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Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
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I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Actually, I would be surprised. Because I have no reason to believe that one group would even suspect what I've hinted at.
You mean the group/individual (interesting that you assume group: any reason, or is that an admission you belong to that group so we can lynch you now?) that does the changing of people's win conditions and necessitates The Word That Shall Not Be Quoted in our win condition?
Additional: epee, sit down. Without people actually getting involved and analyzing and engaging we wouldn't HAVE a game. I'd far prefer more posts like yours than less (whichever side you're on) One person criticizes you for thread-clogging and you get like this? Oh, the drama.
Were you given a clear win condition(by this I mean something labled as a win condition in game terms)? Cause I wasn't. Based on what my pm said you understood everything, but it was all like paragraphs and didn't directly say anything in game terms.
Yeah, don't resign. I don't think anyone wants that.
I based my 25% number off of the cast of characters list. Judging from the number of characters that could genuinely be considered major (100 or so) then eliminating characters that don't have a specific national identity (90 or so), then dividing by three and going from there with permutation math. It's all estimations, though; nothing concrete. I didn't feel like it was actually necessary to come up with an exact number.
Lastly, name is definitely going to be a big clue about role (totally arbitrary guess of 50%?), and nation is definitely a small clue about name (somewhere close to 3% or 4%), but nation is not a reasonable hint at ability. Even IF you took a wild guess at a players rolename based on their nation claim, you certainly couldn't definitively say that they had any particular ability in every case.
There is one exception: say, hypothetically that Sun Quan dies. People who claimed to be from Wu are then much less likely to be nightkilled than people from Shu, because the mafia would naturally want to target Liu Bei as accurately as possible. Those are two of the ONLY names we can reliably assume are in the game, and are associated with a distinct country that isn't Wei. Barring special info that the mafia might have, this is the only risk I can see coming from a nation claim. However, I doubt very much that the town is so dependant on those two roles that the possibility of exposing them in the late game is not worth the potential benefit that we would otherwise gain.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I feel like I should be posting a very long post, but I just don't feel like I have much to say that hasn't already been said.
I'm still against the nation-claim, for reasons listed previously. It sucks that epeeguy is quitting, I don't think he'll be happy with the decision either, 2 weeks from now, when all the crazy stuff in this game comes out.
@ epee: I hope that you didnt read any hostility into my post. It was meant more as a suggestion than an attack. I personally was involved in a similar back and forth debate like you were during random 2. All I was trying to say was that your ideas would be easier to appreciate if they weren't hidden within a large, semi-repetitive post full of quotes. I don't think that you should take that as a reason to resign.
If people are really in favor of the nation claim lemme know so that I can more fully explain my reason for opposing it. That said, I think we would be better off just avoiding it to begin with. Explaining would give info to mafia (that townies should already have) that might help them.
I'm generally not fond of replacements of people who've been active. There's always that "sorry, don't know WHY they said that!" factor, and they aren't around to explain. For example, swinkee won't be able to explain to us why epee chose to out his role so early. In a slightly more insidious situation, in Sin City Rhino was able to disclaim knowledge of why Einstein acted like he had a character name (which in truth was a slip giving away that Einstein had been contemplating false-claiming while he had that role). I've even seen at least one game on mafiascum where a mafia under pressure deliberately requested replacement to try and take the pressure off (he admitted it after the game and apologised).
The point is that is screws up the game when there's a disconnect between words and responsibility, and I really hate it when people sign up and then need replacement quickly and/or for stupid reasons.
I am officially giving Epee until 3:00 PM Pacific standard time on Thursday, February 23rd to recant his decsision, at which time swinkee will be in the game effective immediately.
So ordered!
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
epee you are taking this GAME way to far... its a game meant to have fun, and you want to quit because something you dont like was mentioned?? it seems like you are too far into the GAME and you need to relax.... but if you want to quit go ahead....
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<hotshizle> WINE IN FRONT OF MEAL
<hotshizle> i think
epeeguy, don't leave I mean, your posting style annoyed a few people. Ignore them.
I am still vacilating on nation claims... there's a lot of arguments against it from epee and even Carrion Pigeons. However, if everyone else or even a majority want to claim, which they appeared to do, then I will gladly claim along with them.
The point is that is screws up the game when there's a disconnect between words and responsibility,
This is true. I'm been a replacement in several games and it is difficult to be able to explain the actions of the person replaced.
I've been on both sides of long, intense and distracting post exchanges many times. It is part of the game and just because it might draw some criticism doesn't mean that I might not engage ever again. It happens to everyone at one point or another. It is just like many other aspects or techniques in the game that might be irritating to other players.
I hope epee decides to stay in the game. Mafia games are all about having fun and I think it would be more fun for him and us if he stayed.
So, are we going to go ahead with a kingdom claim? I'm in favor of it myself.
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I'm getting enough of a "we should not nation claim under any cercumstances" vibe that it seems like a bad idea. If enough people are opposed to it and refuse to go through with it, I'm not sure it will have the intended effect. However, if we do convince (nearly) everyone to go through with it, I will as well.
Also, I get the sense that whoever made one of those alternate victory condition comments is out to get the other town nation. That is, something gave the the thought that the Shu were trying to get rid of the Wei (or the other way around) in addition to the Wu. Not having such a condition myself, I'm a bit worried that my fellow townies will end up out to get me...
Let's take a vote on the nation/kingdom claim and discuss the subject clearly.
I know nothing of the books so I have to ask, when we talk about nation claim as opposed to kingdom claim are we talking about the same thing?
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But yeah. It doesn't seem like there's enough broad-based support, but I'm starting to become somewhat ambivalent about the idea. I'm a little troubled by the possibility that there could be some advantage for the mafia to distinguish between the Shu and Wu in their night-targeting choices. I'm sure it's not going to blatantly reveal power roles, but it's possible there's differing percentages or flavors to each of the nations' roles.
I've never read the books, so that's pure speculation, but I have the feeling that there might be some kind of functional difference between the two. I mean, it's rather doubtful that we have townie group x, and townie group y, and they're exactly identical except in terms of flavor.
So unless we were going to try name-claiming, which increasingly seems like a rather bad idea the more I learn about the setup, I think that mass-claiming plans are probably going to be a liability to us.
But yeah. It doesn't seem like there's enough broad-based support, but I'm starting to become somewhat ambivalent about the idea. I'm a little troubled by the possibility that there could be some advantage for the mafia to distinguish between the Shu and Wu in their night-targeting choices. I'm sure it's not going to blatantly reveal power roles, but it's possible there's differing percentages or flavors to each of the nations' roles.
I've never read the books, so that's pure speculation, but I have the feeling that there might be some kind of functional difference between the two. I mean, it's rather doubtful that we have townie group x, and townie group y, and they're exactly identical except in terms of flavor.
So unless we were going to try name-claiming, which increasingly seems like a rather bad idea the more I learn about the setup, I think that mass-claiming plans are probably going to be a liability to us.
Thanks for saying most of what I was thinking, people will listen to you, unlike me.
It's been too long since I've actually been in a game on this site. Yeah, I know. It's only been a couple weeks. I'm addicted, sue me.
Hey loran. Stop being wrong. kthanx
The only mass claim that anyone should be advocating is stritcly that of Kingdom. No character mass claim should happen 'til the endgame, obviously. That said, I think we should do a nation claim, as there is substantial gain in it. Although no mass name claim should happen, people will be claiming as the game continues. That's what happens when you pressure them, they claim. It's how the game is played. When that happens, it is beneficial for us if the mafia have already committed to one group. It limits the number of characters they can claim, so when they have to false claim, that can't just come up with whatever's convinient. They've already committed to a group. It may not single handedly catch us scum, but it can help.
And the potential loss? True, we don't know what the mafia knows, but I see no reason to believe that there is any link between power roles and nation. What else could they learn to help them? And the Nuetral-who-wins-by-killing-certain-people role is an uncommon role that rarely wins, and isn't nesaccarily anti-town(see SC mafia). We should be chasing the mafia, not running from imaginary roles that are hardly a threat. Y'all got any better excuses to oppose this plan?
[The Family]
[The Family]
As much as i disagree with CC's comments about nation-claiming, Sgdre's comment reeks. Sounds to me like a nonstandard win condition (Either alternate or additional win condition).
EBWODP, uhh, i now think i understand sgdre's comment, but even so, i believe you are misinterpreting your pm.
The kingdom of Wei IS the mafia. ALL of it.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
So?
The point isn't to break the game; the point is to give us some cracks to start analyzing. I don't believe that any form of mass claim will break the game on its own, but I also don't believe that anything that guarantees that the mafia have to lie will not be helpful.
I disagree. First of all, we CAN use a nation claim; it will be a constant reference point for verification of consistency for everything else that happens in the game, drastically narrowing scum choices. Second of all, a nation claim should not expose power roles, because we have no reason to believe that abilities are mirrored, or that one nation is much more powerful than another. In fact, we have strong reason to believe otherwise.
Answered above. This is simple naivete on your part.
I dare you to look for a post of mine in thread that hasn't contributed a major point to my argument. Go ahead. I'll wait.
I voted for Ged because he seemed to be deliberately misrepresenting the situation, and I certainly won't apologize for that. However, I think I've found something even more interesting in your point #1.
Anyone with a standard WC in this game from at least one of the innocent nations ought to see a major fault with this argument. The fact of the matter is that each nation (besides Wei) does NOT have a specific goal of its own. Only a member of a nation that did would speculate this. Seeing as I don't believe that my opposite nation has a specific goal, since it is not mirrored in my own nation, I'm going to happily and decisively Unvote, Vote Epeeguy.
Better proof of scum is not to be found, fellas.
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The plot thickens.
[The Family]
Furthermore, there is clearly a role related issue with the nations besides Wei, as otherwise, why mention that so and so is SHU rather than TOWNIE upon death? I doubt its just flavor personally. And since im pretty sure Shu and Wu dont have nation dependent win conditions (at least i dont seem to), im assuming a third party does.
*Sigh*, I don't know. If you guys wanted to do a mass nation-claim Id go along, but i am not in favor of such a thing still.
Meanwhile, id love to hear more from epeeguy and Sgdre.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Epeeguy 1 - (carrion pigeons)
Carrion pigeons 1 - (Loran16)
Azrael 1 (creampuffeater)
*don’t let me write things while taking breaks from playing Exalted. Just -don’t-.
I'd vote loran, but loran's just guilty of assuming that he knows everything. Dear loran: just because YOU don't know anything that would help catch mafia who false-claim doesn't mean WE, the town as a whole, don't know anything. And also, forcing the mafia into outright lies = ++ for the town in the long run, sometimes even the short run (some people are HORRIBLE liars).
Also, I myself am not that suspicious of epeeguy, but that could easily change.
It means that your claim that the chance of catching scum being 25% is a completely meaningless, inaccurate number. Odd given that you had problems with Ged's statistics and their accuracy.
I don't believe I said it would break the game. I simply raised the point that I doubted Fayul would make it so easy that we would be able to analyze any kind of break down in the number of players in either Wu or Shu to determine who may or may not be lying about their affiliation. Whereas the Wei would be able to know a lot more about the distribution than anyone else; which is an advantage to the Mafia.
So, basically what you are suggesting is that this is simply a start in the right direction, in order to narrow down scum claims? That's a far cry from your initial argument that it could catch scum on its own, and is much closer to what others have said about using it conjunction with a second claim of some type.
So, in a game where Nation and Names could potentially display a great amount of information about what role a player might have in this game, you believe that there is absolutely no risk at all in giving up each players' Nation? Or that the Mafia won't be able to turn it against us?
CP, seriously, you've spent more time attacking me and Ged than defending your own plan. This is really the first post where you've made an argument for the value of your plan, as opposed to simply questioning the detractors.
You're correct, all the members on one side should have one goal... In a normal game. In a normal game, I would expect the goal to remain the same throughout the game and never to change. However, when I got my role PM, there was a single word in it that made me question if that was entirely true.
Can you tell me what that word was? Maybe I'm unique in that I believe that this is an important tidbit of role information that may greatly affect the dynamics of the game as it progresses. If that belief makes me scummy, then I suggest you go ahead and get everyone else to vote to banish me.
I guess what I really find striking about all this is that you're very quick to vote for me; despite already having picked up on my not-so-subtle claim from my first post. I would tend to think that you would have understood what exactly that claim means, and that it definitely means I am not scummy (not that I can prove it, since the one person who can prove it is dead). So, why vote for me knowing that?
No, that number is not meaningless. Just because there are people who may not be able to claim a specific nation doesn't mean my estimation is completely off. My number is very much a lower bound.
I didn't say you said it would break the game.
But Fayul has no need to take measures against a strategy that wouldn't break the game, now would she? This argument is not a valid one.
It CAN catch scum on its own. And I am NOT recommending any form of nameclaim from anyone at this point. But claims will happen, and when they do, at whatever time, this will become an important issue to touch back with.
I've honestly tried to come up with a reasonable way to think that nations on their own have some indication of people's roles, and I just can't. I'd be interested to hear what you think would indicate people's roles. Every reasonable way I can think of to set up the game, knowing what I know about my win condition, depends on there being a reasonable, non-mirrored, power split between the two nations.
Hypothetically, one of the nations could be like 3 members and be a mason group, or something, and everyone else could belong to the other. Somehow, I doubt it, though. Even if it were the case, it would not prevent the efficacy of a nation claim (in fact it would make it even better).
Still waiting...
C'mon, give me a post number.
If you mean the word "Wei," which all I can imagine that you mean, not only has Fayul already spoiled that, but it has already been commented on and speculated about multiple times in the thread already as well. This does nothing for you.
I would not have voted for you, except that you clearly do not have the knowledge that a non-mafioso ought to have. I would have happily debated with you the merits of the plan - and I still will - but you've already given away that you're scum, so I see no reason not to vote you.
Your claim doesn't give me any reason to believe that you aren't lying, and it certainly doesn't give you a way to weasel out of a lack of understanding about the town WC.
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[The Family]
[The Family]
I suddenly see.
I'll shut up now. Unvote, for now.
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Here CP shares info that I dont think he would have as Wei/individual.
I would like to point out Kenji's reaction to everyone. FOS Kenji
EWP: Hmmm... maybe I have the wrong word
* sgdre runs off to check his PM
EBWODP: Nvm, I am pretty sure that I had the word epee was talking about. I got confused about who asked it by CC. It doesnt really demonstrate wei from non wei, and I wouldnt be suprised if there were non-wei, non-individuals who didnt have that word in their role PM.
No, it doesn't. As you yourself said, it only provides a reference for subsequent things we might do. So, on its own, there is no way it can be used to catch scum. It's simply there as a reference for everyone to use, and the Mafia are going to get more of a benefit initially than we are; if only because they can use that to narrow down who would be on which side. And since Role Names are probably allocated based on Nation, it might provide a stepping stone for them to identify possible targets.
Even if we do use it later on, I still think it's pretty weak. RotTK has a large ensemble of characters that can be drawn from, and there are possibly some less well known ones in this game to throw us off such an approach.
It wasn't that one. But, since it appears that you see what I mean, I won't press the matter further.
Why, as Mafia, would I even try to make that claim? I'm a much better player than you are giving me credit for here, as I know the amount of suspicion I would get for claiming what I claimed. And to do it on Day 1? That's even dumber, as no Mafia would use it except as a last resort. And even then, it still probably wouldn't work. I'd basically have given myself up without a fight, and the Town would have an easy lynch.
For those who didn't get it from my first post, yes I've not-so-subtly claimed Mason with Machin Shin. And, since he's dead, he can't independently confirm it, nor do I even have a chance to confirm myself as the Inspector is also dead. My only plan for Day 1 was to simply post that information and see how many people attacked it immediately, as a way to gauge reaction and use it later. Not the best plan in the world, but the only one I could think of. =P
I still have concerns about your votes though and the way you went after both me and Ged (especially me, given that you were one of the first to comment on my not-so-subtle claim). So, my FOS remains for the time being. I'm not nearly confident enough to vote, given what is going on, but I will be watching.
[The Family]
Actually, I would be surprised. Because I have no reason to believe that one group would even suspect what I've hinted at.
Honestly, claiming that a claim that should get you lynched if you were mafia wouldn't get you lynched if you weren't mafia is just silly.
As for your claim that a nation claim can't catch scum, saying it won't make it so. Give me a reason, please. I've given multiple reasons why it WILL help, and a reason why it CAN catch scum on its own. You saying, "No, it doesn't," doesn't contribute.
And since you seem so obsessed with believing that I'm trying to lynch the people who disagree with me, I suppose I'll defend myself.
I voted for Ged because he misrepresented the meaning of a statistic he quoted. I did not vote for him because he disagreed with me. I stated that at the time. He said it was a mistake. I kept my vote on to make the point that his statistic was WRONG. (I notice that you seem to be relying on his misrepresentation to continue your opposition to a nation-claim plan.)
I voted for you because I believed that I had caught you in a lie. The fact that you demonstrated to me that I was mistaken was what led me to unvote. I definitely think you could be scum, but I currently have no reason to be voting for you. So I'm not. However, I do strongly disagree with you. Many of your points are unsupported either by logic or by the discussion we've had so far. If it gets to the point where I believe that you are actively misrepresenting the circumstances around the points that you argue, I may find my vote wandering over in your direction again. For now, I'm willing to believe that you are just failing to see the benefits for which I'm arguing, at which point, I suggest you look to CC's comments, Raf's comments, and Az's comments, all of whom have expressed support for this plan, and all of whom have the experience and technical expertise in the game to justify their support.
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Also, from today until Saturday I won't be having much time around here.
You said yourself it was unhelpful, but not scummy per se, to have done what I did (Post 20). So, if there's something scummy about what I did, then please make your argument. Otherwise, your comments here are rather trite.
And saying it will somehow catch scum doesn't make it so either.
As far as I can tell, you've only really made two solid arguments for what it would do. One is in Post 27, when you posted the chances to catch scum as being 25% (which I then questioned and got us to here) and then in Post 59, where you said:
"First of all, we CAN use a nation claim; it will be a constant reference point for verification of consistency for everything else that happens in the game, drastically narrowing scum choices."
This does not (at least not to me) demonstrate that a Nation claim, on its own, will catch scum. If anything, it only further illustrates that it's just a piece of a more detailed strategy. And, I do have to question how much information we want to release that quickly, when it doesn't appear to have an immediate benefit to the Town.
If you've made more points that I'm missing, by all means point them out to me. Because, in rereading your previous posts, I can only find those two.
Honestly, you're making a bigger deal of this than me right now. I simply made a comment on something that appeared off to me in your approach to Ged and me. It still does appear off to me, but it's too early to make any kind of case of it.
I don't think there was anything in Post 44 (where I raised my questioned on your statistics) that is "unsupported by logic". If anything, I raised those because I think it was your logic and conclusions that were questionable; and I still think that they are.
I'm not going to keep harping on this. I've made my points against a mass claim of this nature, and if no one wants to buy them and the Town wants to pursue this approach, then so be it. But I'll let those who haven't spoken voice their opinion.
EWP: Well, at least one person we haven't heard from until now has posted his opinion.
And again, your point is? If I thought it was scummy, I would have said so. All I'm saying at the moment is that it certainly doesn't make you look more townie.
There is approximately a 25% chance for any given scum to mess up and be caught. I gave adequate support for this argument, although I acknowledge that it is a very rough estimate. Are you going to argue that something that provides that kind of success rate, or anything close to it at all, isn't worth doing? If you are, the only plausible reason for doing so is in assessing the risk it gives to the town much more liberally than I am, so I want to hear it.
Even Ged said he was wrong on that point.
Good, I'm glad we're off the subject. Do me a favor, though. If/when you decide to attack me again, don't refer back to the points you've already made without also refuting my answers. I don't look forward to another battle like you did to Puzzle a few games back.
Your point #2 is bad logic because you assume that there are enough non-nation-claimers to drastically change my numbers. Do the math; unless the number is more than 3, my estimate is very reasonable. Even if it goes as high as 6 (which I very much doubt), it isn't out of the realm of strong possibility that a scum could mess up.
Your point #3 is bad logic because you assume that we can't draw assumptions from the game based on these claims, which is blatantly and obviously not true. For the most part, we should be able to get a pretty good idea of the setup that way, and if we're off by 1 or 2 people, further evidence will demonstrate it, eventually. You somehow seem to believe that the mafia are capable of completely changes the contours of the game, when the whole point of a nation claim is that it severely limits the mafias choices about how to react. There are only a few things they can do, and none of them will turn up as especially astonishing. We will learn a great deal about the setup this way.
Your point #4 is bad logic because you don't make a logical link between national identity and power roles. You assume it. I have directly argued that there is no such link, and I have yet to see you, or anyone, refute it.
Your point #5 is good logic, but not strong logic. We should not be basing our decisions on things like that.
I hope that's sufficiently clear.
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Anyways... CP and Epee have started a rivalry rivaling the Epee/Puzzle. Boo to both of you, for hijacking this thread. As for the nation claim, if it has the possibility of netting a Mafioso, it's fine by me. On a side note, I was reading through the character lists I got heavily confused with all the Ying-Yang, Wang Bong, etc. names. So I think all of us are excused for confusing the Kamigawa-esque names.
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Yeah, but how do you arrive at that number? Because that's what I don't understand. It's how you get to this that has me concerned.
Fair point, and I won't dispute that perhaps it isn't enough to throw the distribution off. However, we can't completely know if it is a high or low number, and it would be inappropriate (at least in my mind) to not consider the possibility that it could be high enough to throw things off.
All I can say is that I think that Nation is a pretty big clue as to who people may be; and that ability is probably going to go along with name. If you don't feel that's logical, then that's fine. But I see nothing illogical about the presumption that Name, Nation and Ability might somehow be related.
Anyhow, based on the last couple of posts, if that's how people think I'm going to try to play this game, then I'm sorry to have heard that. I'd hoped to have an enjoyable game, and don't feel that that will happen now. At least not with me in it.
Respectfully, therefore, I have decided to resign and ask to be replaced. I don't want to taint this game anymore that I apparently already have.
Your method of posting can be annoying at times, but it's no reason for you to get replaced.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
There does seem to be a lil more hostile attitude than id like here, but it is no reason to resign here.
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You mean the group/individual (interesting that you assume group: any reason, or is that an admission you belong to that group so we can lynch you now?) that does the changing of people's win conditions and necessitates The Word That Shall Not Be Quoted in our win condition?
Additional: epee, sit down. Without people actually getting involved and analyzing and engaging we wouldn't HAVE a game. I'd far prefer more posts like yours than less (whichever side you're on) One person criticizes you for thread-clogging and you get like this? Oh, the drama.
Were you given a clear win condition(by this I mean something labled as a win condition in game terms)? Cause I wasn't. Based on what my pm said you understood everything, but it was all like paragraphs and didn't directly say anything in game terms.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
I based my 25% number off of the cast of characters list. Judging from the number of characters that could genuinely be considered major (100 or so) then eliminating characters that don't have a specific national identity (90 or so), then dividing by three and going from there with permutation math. It's all estimations, though; nothing concrete. I didn't feel like it was actually necessary to come up with an exact number.
Lastly, name is definitely going to be a big clue about role (totally arbitrary guess of 50%?), and nation is definitely a small clue about name (somewhere close to 3% or 4%), but nation is not a reasonable hint at ability. Even IF you took a wild guess at a players rolename based on their nation claim, you certainly couldn't definitively say that they had any particular ability in every case.
There is one exception: say, hypothetically that Sun Quan dies. People who claimed to be from Wu are then much less likely to be nightkilled than people from Shu, because the mafia would naturally want to target Liu Bei as accurately as possible. Those are two of the ONLY names we can reliably assume are in the game, and are associated with a distinct country that isn't Wei. Barring special info that the mafia might have, this is the only risk I can see coming from a nation claim. However, I doubt very much that the town is so dependant on those two roles that the possibility of exposing them in the late game is not worth the potential benefit that we would otherwise gain.
Again, please don't quit.
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My decision is final. I will play in no further games either.
Not sure what to make of all of that except that I regret epeeguy's decision. I'll make a return later when I have more to say.
I'm still against the nation-claim, for reasons listed previously. It sucks that epeeguy is quitting, I don't think he'll be happy with the decision either, 2 weeks from now, when all the crazy stuff in this game comes out.
If people are really in favor of the nation claim lemme know so that I can more fully explain my reason for opposing it. That said, I think we would be better off just avoiding it to begin with. Explaining would give info to mafia (that townies should already have) that might help them.
I'm generally not fond of replacements of people who've been active. There's always that "sorry, don't know WHY they said that!" factor, and they aren't around to explain. For example, swinkee won't be able to explain to us why epee chose to out his role so early. In a slightly more insidious situation, in Sin City Rhino was able to disclaim knowledge of why Einstein acted like he had a character name (which in truth was a slip giving away that Einstein had been contemplating false-claiming while he had that role). I've even seen at least one game on mafiascum where a mafia under pressure deliberately requested replacement to try and take the pressure off (he admitted it after the game and apologised).
The point is that is screws up the game when there's a disconnect between words and responsibility, and I really hate it when people sign up and then need replacement quickly and/or for stupid reasons.
End rant.
So ordered!
I am still vacilating on nation claims... there's a lot of arguments against it from epee and even Carrion Pigeons. However, if everyone else or even a majority want to claim, which they appeared to do, then I will gladly claim along with them.
This is true. I'm been a replacement in several games and it is difficult to be able to explain the actions of the person replaced.
I've been on both sides of long, intense and distracting post exchanges many times. It is part of the game and just because it might draw some criticism doesn't mean that I might not engage ever again. It happens to everyone at one point or another. It is just like many other aspects or techniques in the game that might be irritating to other players.
I hope epee decides to stay in the game. Mafia games are all about having fun and I think it would be more fun for him and us if he stayed.
So, are we going to go ahead with a kingdom claim? I'm in favor of it myself.
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Also, I get the sense that whoever made one of those alternate victory condition comments is out to get the other town nation. That is, something gave the the thought that the Shu were trying to get rid of the Wei (or the other way around) in addition to the Wu. Not having such a condition myself, I'm a bit worried that my fellow townies will end up out to get me...
I know nothing of the books so I have to ask, when we talk about nation claim as opposed to kingdom claim are we talking about the same thing?
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And a multi-voter.
But yeah. It doesn't seem like there's enough broad-based support, but I'm starting to become somewhat ambivalent about the idea. I'm a little troubled by the possibility that there could be some advantage for the mafia to distinguish between the Shu and Wu in their night-targeting choices. I'm sure it's not going to blatantly reveal power roles, but it's possible there's differing percentages or flavors to each of the nations' roles.
I've never read the books, so that's pure speculation, but I have the feeling that there might be some kind of functional difference between the two. I mean, it's rather doubtful that we have townie group x, and townie group y, and they're exactly identical except in terms of flavor.
So unless we were going to try name-claiming, which increasingly seems like a rather bad idea the more I learn about the setup, I think that mass-claiming plans are probably going to be a liability to us.
Thanks for saying most of what I was thinking, people will listen to you, unlike me.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3