I think CreamPuff made a very big mafia tell that we should keep pursuing. No Wu will claim Wu (except for Chamber, and he explained) because they are all using their safeclaims, thus hiding and leaving the mafia alone in the spotlights.
I think we might have really caught a scum with that, but I also think we should explore and see who else is seeming scummy. Like SOS: When we do a mass nationclaim, everybody nationclaims. One person cannot refuse to claim, because then we can't judge you based on your nationclaim. I'll FOS SOS for all this, he's read enough to know that he should be claiming, and he still isn't.
I think CreamPuff made a very big mafia tell that we should keep pursuing. No Wu will claim Wu (except for Chamber, and he explained) because they are all using their safeclaims, thus hiding and leaving the mafia alone in the spotlights.
I think we might have really caught a scum with that, but I also think we should explore and see who else is seeming scummy. Like SOS: When we do a mass nationclaim, everybody nationclaims. One person cannot refuse to claim, because then we can't judge you based on your nationclaim. I'll FOS SOS for all this, he's read enough to know that he should be claiming, and he still isn't.
If no one had claimed wu I was going to do what sos is doing. And I hate being hypocritical. If he refuses to claim. then meh.
SOS's reaction of "omfg stupid morons" and "bite me" is clearly excessive. We're asking him to claim his nation, yet he feels the need to be surly and overly aggressive.
This is SOS's post #190:
Quote from SOS »
meh, why should I have seen this coming?
Ok, i'll catch up and post thoughts later.
sorry for being so inactive
So he's telling us that he clicked on the thread, saw that he was behind several pages, so without reading anything, he posts, "meh, why should I have seen this coming?", says he's going to catch up, and apologizes for being inactive. Seen what coming? That he's fallen behind and needs to do some reading?
Personally, if SOS really doesn't have time for this game, he should be replaced, especially if he's only going to be hostile.
Anyway, back on the subject of creampuffeater:
Quote from Azrael »
As for CPE...he was a little off. But let's not forget that this is imhungry we're dealing with, and the tell wasn't a major one.
Can you explain what you mean here? I never read the Blind Mafias (and he didn't last long enough in HS Mafia), so I have no idea what his play is like.
chamber: I'm curious. Why would you have chosen to not claim at all rather than going with your safe claim? Why did the fact that others claimed Wu induce you to come clean?
chamber: I'm curious. Why would you have chosen to not claim at all rather than going with your safe claim? Why did the fact that others claimed Wu induce you to come clean?
Not claimign at all was completely for a meta-gaming perpus. However catching scum in this game is better then preparing for future games.
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
I think CreamPuff made a very big mafia tell that we should keep pursuing. No Wu will claim Wu (except for Chamber, and he explained) because they are all using their safeclaims, thus hiding and leaving the mafia alone in the spotlights.
Plus he then tried to use that fact to make himself out as a townie, that's what really does it for me.
I could be much more suspicious of SOS. He probably has some good reason for not claiming clan. Can't think of what it would be, but i'm sure its there. In an ideal world, he should claim, but his lack of claim is not that suspicious to me.
A fwe miscellaneous things: FOS Jobie (2 posts) and Peregrine Falcon (3 posts) for lurkage. Also, has the Epeeguy situation been resolved?
unvote, vote creampuffeater, now that I know it's safe.
Simple question requiring answer: Why'd you claim Wu?
As far as SOS goes, when I said above that he was on, I meant he was shown in the "current active users viewing this thread" box, so at best he was reading the thread without posting (but he wasn't merely somewhere on mtgsalvation without being here).
Whoa, I completely forgot I was even in this game..hehe...
Vote: SOS, for being the only one (besides epeeguy) to not nation claim, and being very, very anti-nation claim.
I really haven't seen anything all that blatant from anyone else besides that, maybe it's cause I was in spectator mode.
A little side note, Tuesday and Wednesday I will have limited access, due to a school activity taking me out of town. I'll try to post tommorow night, after a re-read.
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I dont think that SOS was being anti-nation claim so much as anti-social. Calm down dude. You made it sound like you had read the thread and so people wanted you to claim your nation. If you dont have time to play in this game you should ask to be replaced. I am sure that there are a bunch of people who would love to get your spot.
SOS should claim ASAP, and obv CPE has got some serious splainin to do.
That might be a mod mistake, don't assume anything there...
Also, I'm glad to see Jobie posted. yayayayay.
I'm not as glad to see a vote on SOS. Simply being opposed to this action does not neccesitate scumitude. He could be a townie Wu without safeclaim, for all we know. To use a WIFOM argument that I think may be valid here, I don't think a scum would refuse to claim nation, given the ease of false-claim and the possibility of safe claims for scum. In any case, if he claims in his next post all of this will be rightfully relegated to the grave.
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Huzzah! Huzzah! I am postmaster general! Lord of all posts! No longer shall I lurk in the shadows of lurkenzy lurking, but I shall post until I am blue in the monitor!
In other news, I'm back in black. I've been cut loose from the noose that's kept me hanging around.
I'd be working away on those PBPAs I promised earlier, but it's 9:19 and I've lost the notebook I was using. I'll restart tomorrow after school.
After a general readthough, I'm going to
vote creampuffeater-the Wu claim shenanigan is a nice tell, and in conjunction with the push to Shu that Fade pointed out, it's certainly damning in my opinion.
As for SOS--I don't buy into the "vote for pressure" thing, especially when we have creampuff to work with. I think that he'll catch up when he catches up and if he doesn't nation-claim at that point, then that is the time we should take up the issue with him. No point haranguing latecomers into getting frustrated into tl;dr positions.
Vote SOS for pressure. If we're all claiming, we're all claiming.
As for CPE...he was a little off. But let's not forget that this is imhungry we're dealing with, and the tell wasn't a major one.
well at least Az knows whats going on... I suck as town and can win as mafia. Besides as for the safe claim... If I claimed the other country then I would be lying to the town and I thought that LAL was the biggest unbroken rule in mafia. Besides I never said whether or not I have a safe claim or not.
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Quote from hotshizzle »
<hotshizle> WINE IN FRONT OF MEAL
<hotshizle> i think
Fair enough, actually. I was thinking over what I'd do in a situation where my existing win condition was just to kill the scum but where I'd been provided with a false claim anyway. Do you use the false claim in case it comes in handy later, or do you do the townie thing and be straight?
This provides two interesting conundrums which I'll have to think on.
1) Do we make everyone do the equivalent of saying "I swear I'm really Shu and not false-claiming", giving Wu people a last chance to un-fake and then assuming any liars we find later are up to no good?
2) Do we force cpe to spill to verify that he's not just saying this stuff about choosing not to lie, but that he in fact IS Wu and DOES have a false claim? And if so, do we have him spill just his false claim or also his Wu name?
1) the problem is if they have a REASON to false claim they'll just continue false claiming, and they'll probably have false name claims too, so it won't help us too much. So it might have minimal returns. Still, it's a logical step to take so we can realistically use LAL in the future.
2) I think that at this point that is something we need to do. Even if we do the first one, I would remain suspicious of CPE. The fact is, he could easily have claimed Wu as a mafia knowing that few people were in Wu, and he did use that fact to attempt to clear himself. The best thing for him to do would be to claim right now his safe claim, and then later on if we're not satisified name and ability claim.
Okay, well, epee/swinkee is presumably going to claim Shu as well (though I wont believe it, personally), so cpe is our only serious lead at the moment.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
1) I agree with Rhino on this: If they false-claimed, they probably had a reason, and will likely stick to their guns. I don't think my win-condition will change any time soon, which means that they are remaining my allies for a while now. This does make LAL no longer a hard and fast rule. We must become more discerning.
While I agree on cpe using pretty much craplogic in his post, I don't consider that a major tell. My personal belief still is that the Wei had safe claims as well, as Fauyl did mention mass claiming not breaking the game. That means cpe is either misplaying Wu or misplaying Wei. And I personally see him more as Wu, as I think for the Wei, being the actual mafia and able to communicate day and night, it would be even more clear to use their safe claims.
But if the day's not going to offer us anything more, a prospective would-be scum isn't that bad lynch either I guess. I just see no reason to rush it.
It would be my guess that the mafia also have safe claims. But cpe could easily be some sort of neutral like an sk for example. Also I predict that the wu and shu wont stay allied this entire game. So its sort of win win for you even if he is wu as claimed. We of course can't go lynching every wu because then the mafia would out number us and win(and I would lose seeing as I'm wu) but taking one out who has made a red herring of himself seems fine to me.
While I agree on cpe using pretty much craplogic in his post, I don't consider that a major tell. My personal belief still is that the Wei had safe claims as well, as Fauyl did mention mass claiming not breaking the game. That means cpe is either misplaying Wu or misplaying Wei. And I personally see him more as Wu, as I think for the Wei, being the actual mafia and able to communicate day and night, it would be even more clear to use their safe claims.
But if the day's not going to offer us anything more, a prospective would-be scum isn't that bad lynch either I guess. I just see no reason to rush it.
I'm going to barn Chamber once again. We can't afford to pursue the Wu at this point. Let the mafia pick them off by accident, while we spend our lynches pursuing mafia instead of getting side-tracked into killing possible traitors. Take note of who they are, but leave them be for now.
Minor FOS C_F, for that. We cannot afford to regard the Wu as enemies atm, and waste our lynches on them. That's a sure-fire path to defeat.
I'm going to probably end up being Chamber and Az's barn once again here, as I don't see it time to kill off Wu. We have to focus on eliminating the mafia at the moment, and the only lead we have currently is cpe, who I don't feel is mafia, but rather, a confused Wu member.
Obv its not time to lynch all the Wu. That said, I think that CPE's claim is VERY suspicious. Is someone willing to check the numbers claimed for each group at the time CPE claimed?
Yeah, you're probably right. I kind of meant having cpe as a "back-up lynch" if we don't find any person we'd see as prospective Wei, but I can see how this line of thinking defeats itself. Currently I think anyone of us others are more prospective Wei candidates than cpe (save for Chamber maybe), so while attacking others for using craplogic I ended up doing so myself.
?!?!?!?
Okay, explain that line of thinking? How on EARTH is cpe less likely to be Wei than someone who has claimed Shu?
1)If cpe is Shu, then he lied, which means he's anti-town, which means he ought to be lynched. (This is making the assumption that there might be neutral Shu players, which seems likely to me. However, I don't believe that he is one of them.)
2)If cpe is Wei, he falseclaimed, which means he's anti-town (obv.), which means he ought to be lynched.
3)If cpe is Wu, he told the truth. Given that he is the ONLY member of that kingdom to do so, some things would need to be explained: why didn't he falseclaim? Why did he seem oblivious to the presence of falseclaims for the Wu? Why did he try to clear himself as his first act as a claimed Wu? I'll acknowledge that there could be plausible answers to those questions, but none are coming to me off the top of my head.
I'd say the odds of him being scum are at this point about 90% The nature of the Wu setup, from what we know, doesn't lend itself to being screwed up the way cpe did.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
So that I don't forget this for later, big FOS Peregrine Falcon for looking very much as if he was trying to pre-emptively excuse lying.
I still think we definitively need to either have CPE claim something (probably just his "safe claim" to start with) or else accept his story and put all of Wu on noticed to admit who they are so we can narrow stuff down more and not waste more time pursuing Wu if we don't have to. I'm not convinced that Wu don't already have plans against Shu, and I'd prefer a Wu be lynched ahead of a Shu, but if we can work out who the Wu are right here and now we can narrow stuff down faster.
Although there's probably going to turn out to be a mafia with a fake Shu claim AND a fake Wu claim, just so that all the mafia aren't clustered together :/ We'll deal with that as it comes, I guess.
The thing is, chamber told us the Wu got safe claims. If the Wu got safe claims, then it's highly probable the Wei got safe claims as well as otherwise they would get screwed in case on name claim. And while I see the logic behind not using a safe claim totally flawed, I think a Wu person would mess it up more likely than a Wei person. And I'm pretty sure the Wei have been like "wow, we got safe claims" in their early communications, resulting in them all more probably using the said claims.
Wait, Why do Wei have safe claims? It is rather unusual and pretty much RARE as hell for mafia to get safe claims. And they wouldnt screw up a nation claim, cuz its just shu or wu!
For name claiming, what do mafia always do? THEY FALSE CLAIM. They dont have false claims given to them!
Wu may have safe claims, but it makes little sense that that means Wei have them, and it is unlikely. Meanwhile, CPE's actions make no sense for a wu, cuz it would VOID his safe claim, and make a part of his role useless.
THe only reason chambe rclaimed wu is cuz he thought his information would help us catch wei scum at this time. CPE's ACTIONS MAKE NO SENSE AT ALL. HE shouldnt be a secondary target, but our main suspect right now imo.
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
And again, your point is? Are you saying that we shouldn't lynch him because he might be Wei who messed up a safe claim rather than a Wu who did the same thing?
If he's Wei, we're happy to lynch him regardless, that's my point. Say, hypothetically, that all non-Shu get safe claims. This is your hypothesis, right?
Either the Wei got safeclaims in Shu or they got them in Wu. We KNOW that no Wu has a Wu name for a safe claim, so if cpe's safe claim is Wu, then he's scum. If he really is Wu, then all the question s from my previous post apply. If he's scum with either no safe claim or a Shu safe claim, then he's scum. If he's Shu, for whatever reason, then he's scum. I'm interested to hear how he could be Wu and totally mess up his role the way he did. As I said before, I acknowledge that it's possible, somehow, but I tend to doubt it.
To summarize: the only way he could NOT be scum, is if he's a Wu who messed up. Since I don't see that as likely (and since he couldn't be trusted even if it were true), and cannot even imagine a plausible scenario where it could happen at all, I'm voting for him. However, I'm asking him for an explanation that can satisfy the circumstances, at which point I may rethink my position.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
To summarize: the only way he could NOT be scum, is if he's a Wu who messed up. Since I don't see that as likely (and since he couldn't be trusted even if it were true), and cannot even imagine a plausible scenario where it could happen at all, I'm voting for him. However, I'm asking him for an explanation that can satisfy the circumstances, at which point I may rethink my position.
I know it's hard to imagine but if you have read blind 2, then it becomes not so hard to imagine cpe doing. I still find it more likely hes not wu, but I wouldnt go to the 90% you listed, maybe 60%(this number was pulled out of my ass) or so, which is better then anything else we can expect day 1.
@rhino: not rly. I just wanted to have read the whole thread to make sure what was going on and then make a decision. I find it extremely annoying that people are saying 'sos is on lolz HE MUST DIE NOW RAWR'. I believe there are even some people amongst them who use invisible mode
Anyway, Shu.
thx for claiming
I was considering that, until you posted defending yourself, ironically.
I am pretty okay with my vote where it is (on CPE). He is the current best suspect, and I think there's a good chance he's scum. He should at least claim his false name if nothing else.
As for CPE...he was a little off. But let's not forget that this is imhungry we're dealing with, and the tell wasn't a major one.
Who were you in Blind 2?
Quote from cpe »
Besides I never said whether or not I have a safe claim or not.
Umm... can you tell us please?
If we decide to have all the Wu reclaim, I seriously doubt they will pipe up. We're just going to have to sit on this. O and, how broken would giving the mafia safe claims be (as I have never encountered it).
Giving the mafia a full set of safeclaims is something I have never seen in a game before, and I understand why. Typically, claim information is too valuable a resource to the town for a mod to be willing to screw it up.
However, in this game, there is simply too much that we gain from claims for there not to be some kind of major restriction put on them. The fact that all the Wu have safeclaims is indicative of Fayul's effort to keep the game from degenerating into who has the most realistic claim. I'd lay even odds on the mafia having safe claims in this game.
Either way, we've already severely narrowed the Wei's choices, and we have probably (IMO) caught a scum day 1, so they can't be too broken in this case.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I refer you all to posts 154 & 158. In 154, Matjoeman "take Chamber's wager of everyone claiming Shu, by claiming Wu. 4 posts later (approx 1 Hour IRL), CPE, goes "sarcastically psycho towards MJM" and then claims Wu. This is the case, you are jury, you decide. And remember: "If he claims in a pinch, you must lynch." or something... [/lawyer-esque posting]
Anyways, I don't know if this is all that damning. It could just be that CPE wandered on while we were claiming and decided to claim Wu. Or he could have been waiting for someone to claim Wu, so he wasn't left in the dark.
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I'm willing to believe cpe is actually Wu, but he needs to be upfront and explain himself adequately (more specifically, answer the questions about the safe claim).
I'm very curious about those defending cpe. Perhaps there's some confusion over why we're pursuing cpe, but let's take a look at Az's post:
Quote from Azrael »
I'm going to barn Chamber once again. We can't afford to pursue the Wu at this point. Let the mafia pick them off by accident, while we spend our lynches pursuing mafia instead of getting side-tracked into killing possible traitors. Take note of who they are, but leave them be for now.
Minor FOS C_F, for that. We cannot afford to regard the Wu as enemies atm, and waste our lynches on them. That's a sure-fire path to defeat.
1) We're not pursuing the Wu. We're pursuing someone with a fishy claim who may likely be Wei or neutral.
2) I don't see how we already "can't afford" to check cpe. This is still Day 1, guys.
I understand that some of you have prior experiences with cpe from Blind Mafia, but you'll have to explain to the rest of us why you're more likely to believe that he's a blundering Wu than a scum/neutral who made a mistake. He hasn't said anything so far to defend himself other than:
Quote from creampuffeater »
well at least Az knows whats going on... I suck as town and can win as mafia. Besides as for the safe claim... If I claimed the other country then I would be lying to the town and I thought that LAL was the biggest unbroken rule in mafia. Besides I never said whether or not I have a safe claim or not.
And this is supposed to be enough for us to leave him alone?
I'm willing to believe cpe is actually Wu, but he needs to be upfront and explain himself adequately (more specifically, answer the questions about the safe claim).
I'm very curious about those defending cpe. Perhaps there's some confusion over why we're pursuing cpe, but let's take a look at Az's post:
1) We're not pursuing the Wu. We're pursuing someone with a fishy claim who may likely be Wei or neutral.
2) I don't see how we already "can't afford" to check cpe. This is still Day 1, guys.
I understand that some of you have prior experiences with cpe from Blind Mafia, but you'll have to explain to the rest of us why you're more likely to believe that he's a blundering Wu than a scum/neutral who made a mistake. He hasn't said anything so far to defend himself other than:
And this is supposed to be enough for us to leave him alone?
1. I was responding to C_F's outlook that lynching Wu is an acceptable alternative plan. I'm well aware that not everyone shares his view. Which is definitely a good thing, or this game would be over before it had begun.
2. We can't afford to "check" him? And by check, I assume you mean kill him? Verification via lynch is a last resort, and I haven't seen anything nearly convincing enough to make me satisfied with a CPE lynch at this point. Simply because it's still day one isn't an excuse to become reckless with our votes, and I'm surprised to see you advocating that kind of strategy, Fade.
Let's review the quote in question:
Quote from CPE »
ok well the MJM thing was very confusing but at least that was straightenrd out. That leaves 1 less Wu meaning like 17 Shu and 2 Wu if my numbers are correct (which they most likly are) I think that most of the mafias jumped on the Shu thing because they must have thought that claiming Wu was very suspicious and thats maybe why so few Wu.
And Loran's analysis of it:
Quote from Loran16 »
ROFL. WIFOM ANYONE?
One might think that there are so few Wus because THEY USED THEIR SAFE CLAIMS. Course, since you're Wei, clearly you didnt know that when you claimed wu, now did you.
Unvote (if i was voting), VOTE CREAMPUFFEATER
Is this hard evidence? Is this CPE making a claim that will damage the town? No. This is one player inferring a motivation on the part of another player, when either of the two possibilities they presented could be correct. In fact, both are probably in effect.
Yes, it's a logical fallacy for a townie CPE to miss that fact. But is it a logical fallacy that hurts the town? Is it even something that misleads the town, if we accept it to be true? Slightly, perhaps, if we put too much stock in the claimed Wu, which isn't too likely of a possibility. But he wasn't exactly saying that the mafia all claimed Shu, he just postulated that it was probable that they did, considering the numbers of claimed Shu. I find that to be fairly sound reasoning, with the proviso that we watch claimed Shu and Wu with equal vigilance.
Occasional logical oversights are forgivable in the case of most players, and certainly in the case of CPE/imhungry, if you believe it was a mistake. Blips like these are worth noting, but a single minor instance of misleading the town is hardly sufficient evidence to push for a quick lynch in and of itself.
The CPE wagon is overextending itself, looking for fresh blood on tenuous grounds. I'm willing to place a vote Fadeblue to help counterbalance that.
Ok well YES I do have a safe claim, but I would rather not claim it or my role yet. I looked at the safe claim and thought that it was helpfull but if I was to use it then I would lie to the town and then you people would be over me on the LAL principle. I really think that people are really over reacting on this thing. I mean some of you really want me dead for not using my safe claim and using "craplogic". I dont think crap logic hurts the town all that much because it does add a lot of discussion. I also find it very suspicious of the people who just jumped on to this bandwagon going O NOES 1 TELL CPE IS TEH SCUMZORZ VOTE: CPE. Now as the example voted for myself unvote: cpe I really dont want to die because I did not use my safe claim. I also think any Wu that did safe claim should say so soon. (I would say now but that would kill me from more people going OMG HE IS LEADING TOWN U ARE SCUM). O and Az you were notstevie (i remember that from me trying to get u modkilled early without thinking what I was doing).
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Quote from hotshizzle »
<hotshizle> WINE IN FRONT OF MEAL
<hotshizle> i think
Uhhh... Az, it seems that you dont really understand what the CPE wagon is about. People are suspicious of him because he claimed Wu without mention of a safe claim (like Chamber did). It seems at least moderately likely that he is some sort of scum trying to fill what he percieved to be a void in the claims. At the time CPE claimed, it seemed that there were too few Wus, so claiming Wu would be less suspicious than Shu (which probably contained a high number of scum). As we found out after Chamber posted it, there were so few Wu's b/c they all used their safe claims.
Uhhh... Az, it seems that you dont really understand what the CPE wagon is about. People are suspicious of him because he claimed Wu without mention of a safe claim (like Chamber did). It seems at least moderately likely that he is some sort of scum trying to fill what he percieved to be a void in the claims. At the time CPE claimed, it seemed that there were too few Wus, so claiming Wu would be less suspicious than Shu (which probably contained a high number of scum). As we found out after Chamber posted it, there were so few Wu's b/c they all used their safe claims.
So, the case against him from your point of view is based on the sin of omission? Kind of shaky, don't you think?
Why don't we simply have him reveal his false claim, then, the next time he's around? And if he takes too long coming up with it...well. Then perhaps there's some substance to the accusations, after all.
CPE, since you're on right now, how about that name? Pronto, preferably: your game-life might just hang in the balance.
2. We can't afford to "check" him? And by check, I assume you mean kill him?
I don't see why you assume check = kill. I was asking cpe to answer questions, not telling him to die. Don't put words in my mouth. I realize that there are other people on this wagon that really do want to lynch him (and I've taken note of them), but I'm here primarily because I want to know what the deal is with the Wu. If he really is Wu, then we can get information from him. If he's scum, then we can hopefully discern that and lynch him.
After reading cpe's last post... Wow, he really is a horrible player. But anyway, his assertion is that he honestly claimed Wu because he was afraid of LAL. But obviously, LAL would only apply if we knew he was lying, which we wouldn't if he was using his safe claim. But I suppose that logic is a bit too much for him.
I still think we're going to need to hear his safe claim. If he really has one, then he's not going to lose anything by revealing it since he's already claimed Wu, and it only hurts us by revealing to the Mafia one character they can't claim (if they have safe claims, too, then it doesn't hurt us at all). If he doesn't have one, then he has to take a chance and guess correctly.
I think it is reasonably likely (although not definate) that all scum have false claims in the Shu clan. That said, I see no reason for him to not reveal his false claim. I would like to see his real role name too as long as it does not obviously reveal his role.
vote CPE (This is # 8 I believe). This will come off when you claim. You are on right now. Dont leave again without cliaming (at least ur false claim).
I believe people usually nameclaim two votes before lynch, so Vote CPE to put the final bit of pressure on him. I believe he should claim right now, and if I am satisfied I will remove the vote.
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Unvote simply because I feel there are too many votes on him.
I would also like to advise all wu to stay hidden. It isn't best for the shu but it could very well be best for us.
@ Chamber: What about in the scenario where a Wu would be able to out a Wei? I agree that it is not in a Wu-ites favor to randomly claim, but we really do have to work together to get the Wei-ites.
Also, just as a note, anyone who says that we should try to get all the Wu-ites to claim now or face the wrath of LAL doesnt really understand LAL IMHO. LAL states that townies dont have a reason to lie and thus liars should be lynched. In fact, Wu-ites have a good reason to lie about their nation (I wouldve if I had been a Wu-ite).
Unvote simply because I feel there are too many votes on him.
I would also like to advise all wu to stay hidden. It isn't best for the shu but it could very well be best for us.
So would fair to assume that win conditons are something like:
Wei - Make the numbers even, or w/e it's worded as
Wu - Be the last people standing
Shu - Rid the game of the Wei
So in theory, doesn't that make the Wu just another group we'll have to kill off at a later date?
I do not advocate killing cpe at the moment, but in the event that nothing else comes out of this day, we may have to get rid of him anyway, so today might be the time to do so.
FOS KeeperEUSC for not knowing the Shu win condition. This would EASILY be a vote, but I really want CPE to claim. It is pretty ridiculous that he hasnt already.
I thought the claimed Wu said their win condition was to get rid of the Wei? I don't think I heard anything about a SK win condition. If we've got a whole clan of Serial-Killers without nightkills, we could still be in serious trouble.
@ Chamber: What about in the scenario where a Wu would be able to out a Wei? I agree that it is not in a Wu-ites favor to randomly claim, but we really do have to work together to get the Wei-ites.
Also, just as a note, anyone who says that we should try to get all the Wu-ites to claim now or face the wrath of LAL doesnt really understand LAL IMHO. LAL states that townies dont have a reason to lie and thus liars should be lynched. In fact, Wu-ites have a good reason to lie about their nation (I wouldve if I had been a Wu-ite).
That was in response to cpe asking them all to come forward. If they have a good reason they should feel free to claim.
Quote from Matjoeman »
O so you are against us.
I'm not anti shu, just pro wu. Right now shu and wu are aligned but I have no idea what will happen in the future and therefore am taking precautionary measures. The fact that I came forward with the false claim info should at least prove I’m anti wei.
I don't know about everyone else but I'm voting him because of his nation claim.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
I think we might have really caught a scum with that, but I also think we should explore and see who else is seeming scummy. Like SOS: When we do a mass nationclaim, everybody nationclaims. One person cannot refuse to claim, because then we can't judge you based on your nationclaim. I'll FOS SOS for all this, he's read enough to know that he should be claiming, and he still isn't.
If no one had claimed wu I was going to do what sos is doing. And I hate being hypocritical. If he refuses to claim. then meh.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
This is SOS's post #190:
So he's telling us that he clicked on the thread, saw that he was behind several pages, so without reading anything, he posts, "meh, why should I have seen this coming?", says he's going to catch up, and apologizes for being inactive. Seen what coming? That he's fallen behind and needs to do some reading?
Personally, if SOS really doesn't have time for this game, he should be replaced, especially if he's only going to be hostile.
Anyway, back on the subject of creampuffeater:
Can you explain what you mean here? I never read the Blind Mafias (and he didn't last long enough in HS Mafia), so I have no idea what his play is like.
chamber: I'm curious. Why would you have chosen to not claim at all rather than going with your safe claim? Why did the fact that others claimed Wu induce you to come clean?
Not claimign at all was completely for a meta-gaming perpus. However catching scum in this game is better then preparing for future games.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Sgdre 2 - (Kenji, CropCircles)
Chamber 1 - (RafaelK)
Creampuffeater 5 - (loran16, fadeblue, chamber, rhinocero, Kenji)
SOS 2- (Azrael, KeeperEUSC)
I could be much more suspicious of SOS. He probably has some good reason for not claiming clan. Can't think of what it would be, but i'm sure its there. In an ideal world, he should claim, but his lack of claim is not that suspicious to me.
A fwe miscellaneous things: FOS Jobie (2 posts) and Peregrine Falcon (3 posts) for lurkage. Also, has the Epeeguy situation been resolved?
Simple question requiring answer: Why'd you claim Wu?
As far as SOS goes, when I said above that he was on, I meant he was shown in the "current active users viewing this thread" box, so at best he was reading the thread without posting (but he wasn't merely somewhere on mtgsalvation without being here).
Vote: SOS, for being the only one (besides epeeguy) to not nation claim, and being very, very anti-nation claim.
I really haven't seen anything all that blatant from anyone else besides that, maybe it's cause I was in spectator mode.
A little side note, Tuesday and Wednesday I will have limited access, due to a school activity taking me out of town. I'll try to post tommorow night, after a re-read.
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SOS should claim ASAP, and obv CPE has got some serious splainin to do.
Anyone else notice that Kenji had 2 votes?
Also, I'm glad to see Jobie posted. yayayayay.
I'm not as glad to see a vote on SOS. Simply being opposed to this action does not neccesitate scumitude. He could be a townie Wu without safeclaim, for all we know. To use a WIFOM argument that I think may be valid here, I don't think a scum would refuse to claim nation, given the ease of false-claim and the possibility of safe claims for scum. In any case, if he claims in his next post all of this will be rightfully relegated to the grave.
Votecount:
Sgdre 1 - (CropCircles)
Creampuffeater 6 - (loran16, fadeblue, chamber, rhinocero, Kenji, RafaelK)
SOS 3 - (Azrael, KeeperEUSC, Jobie)
11 to lynch.
In other news, I'm back in black. I've been cut loose from the noose that's kept me hanging around.
I'd be working away on those PBPAs I promised earlier, but it's 9:19 and I've lost the notebook I was using. I'll restart tomorrow after school.
After a general readthough, I'm going to
vote creampuffeater-the Wu claim shenanigan is a nice tell, and in conjunction with the push to Shu that Fade pointed out, it's certainly damning in my opinion.
As for SOS--I don't buy into the "vote for pressure" thing, especially when we have creampuff to work with. I think that he'll catch up when he catches up and if he doesn't nation-claim at that point, then that is the time we should take up the issue with him. No point haranguing latecomers into getting frustrated into tl;dr positions.
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This provides two interesting conundrums which I'll have to think on.
1) Do we make everyone do the equivalent of saying "I swear I'm really Shu and not false-claiming", giving Wu people a last chance to un-fake and then assuming any liars we find later are up to no good?
2) Do we force cpe to spill to verify that he's not just saying this stuff about choosing not to lie, but that he in fact IS Wu and DOES have a false claim? And if so, do we have him spill just his false claim or also his Wu name?
And unvote until those are answered.
2) I think that at this point that is something we need to do. Even if we do the first one, I would remain suspicious of CPE. The fact is, he could easily have claimed Wu as a mafia knowing that few people were in Wu, and he did use that fact to attempt to clear himself. The best thing for him to do would be to claim right now his safe claim, and then later on if we're not satisified name and ability claim.
I don't think I have any reason not to Vote cpe.
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It would be my guess that the mafia also have safe claims. But cpe could easily be some sort of neutral like an sk for example. Also I predict that the wu and shu wont stay allied this entire game. So its sort of win win for you even if he is wu as claimed. We of course can't go lynching every wu because then the mafia would out number us and win(and I would lose seeing as I'm wu) but taking one out who has made a red herring of himself seems fine to me.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
I'm going to barn Chamber once again. We can't afford to pursue the Wu at this point. Let the mafia pick them off by accident, while we spend our lynches pursuing mafia instead of getting side-tracked into killing possible traitors. Take note of who they are, but leave them be for now.
Minor FOS C_F, for that. We cannot afford to regard the Wu as enemies atm, and waste our lynches on them. That's a sure-fire path to defeat.
I'm going to probably end up being Chamber and Az's barn once again here, as I don't see it time to kill off Wu. We have to focus on eliminating the mafia at the moment, and the only lead we have currently is cpe, who I don't feel is mafia, but rather, a confused Wu member.
?!?!?!?
Okay, explain that line of thinking? How on EARTH is cpe less likely to be Wei than someone who has claimed Shu?
1)If cpe is Shu, then he lied, which means he's anti-town, which means he ought to be lynched. (This is making the assumption that there might be neutral Shu players, which seems likely to me. However, I don't believe that he is one of them.)
2)If cpe is Wei, he falseclaimed, which means he's anti-town (obv.), which means he ought to be lynched.
3)If cpe is Wu, he told the truth. Given that he is the ONLY member of that kingdom to do so, some things would need to be explained: why didn't he falseclaim? Why did he seem oblivious to the presence of falseclaims for the Wu? Why did he try to clear himself as his first act as a claimed Wu? I'll acknowledge that there could be plausible answers to those questions, but none are coming to me off the top of my head.
I'd say the odds of him being scum are at this point about 90% The nature of the Wu setup, from what we know, doesn't lend itself to being screwed up the way cpe did.
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I still think we definitively need to either have CPE claim something (probably just his "safe claim" to start with) or else accept his story and put all of Wu on noticed to admit who they are so we can narrow stuff down more and not waste more time pursuing Wu if we don't have to. I'm not convinced that Wu don't already have plans against Shu, and I'd prefer a Wu be lynched ahead of a Shu, but if we can work out who the Wu are right here and now we can narrow stuff down faster.
Although there's probably going to turn out to be a mafia with a fake Shu claim AND a fake Wu claim, just so that all the mafia aren't clustered together :/ We'll deal with that as it comes, I guess.
Wait, Why do Wei have safe claims? It is rather unusual and pretty much RARE as hell for mafia to get safe claims. And they wouldnt screw up a nation claim, cuz its just shu or wu!
For name claiming, what do mafia always do? THEY FALSE CLAIM. They dont have false claims given to them!
Wu may have safe claims, but it makes little sense that that means Wei have them, and it is unlikely. Meanwhile, CPE's actions make no sense for a wu, cuz it would VOID his safe claim, and make a part of his role useless.
THe only reason chambe rclaimed wu is cuz he thought his information would help us catch wei scum at this time. CPE's ACTIONS MAKE NO SENSE AT ALL. HE shouldnt be a secondary target, but our main suspect right now imo.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
If he's Wei, we're happy to lynch him regardless, that's my point. Say, hypothetically, that all non-Shu get safe claims. This is your hypothesis, right?
Either the Wei got safeclaims in Shu or they got them in Wu. We KNOW that no Wu has a Wu name for a safe claim, so if cpe's safe claim is Wu, then he's scum. If he really is Wu, then all the question s from my previous post apply. If he's scum with either no safe claim or a Shu safe claim, then he's scum. If he's Shu, for whatever reason, then he's scum. I'm interested to hear how he could be Wu and totally mess up his role the way he did. As I said before, I acknowledge that it's possible, somehow, but I tend to doubt it.
To summarize: the only way he could NOT be scum, is if he's a Wu who messed up. Since I don't see that as likely (and since he couldn't be trusted even if it were true), and cannot even imagine a plausible scenario where it could happen at all, I'm voting for him. However, I'm asking him for an explanation that can satisfy the circumstances, at which point I may rethink my position.
The above post is in answer to C_F.
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I know it's hard to imagine but if you have read blind 2, then it becomes not so hard to imagine cpe doing. I still find it more likely hes not wu, but I wouldnt go to the 90% you listed, maybe 60%(this number was pulled out of my ass) or so, which is better then anything else we can expect day 1.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
I was considering that, until you posted defending yourself, ironically.
I am pretty okay with my vote where it is (on CPE). He is the current best suspect, and I think there's a good chance he's scum. He should at least claim his false name if nothing else.
Who were you in Blind 2?
Umm... can you tell us please?
If we decide to have all the Wu reclaim, I seriously doubt they will pipe up. We're just going to have to sit on this. O and, how broken would giving the mafia safe claims be (as I have never encountered it).
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
However, in this game, there is simply too much that we gain from claims for there not to be some kind of major restriction put on them. The fact that all the Wu have safeclaims is indicative of Fayul's effort to keep the game from degenerating into who has the most realistic claim. I'd lay even odds on the mafia having safe claims in this game.
Either way, we've already severely narrowed the Wei's choices, and we have probably (IMO) caught a scum day 1, so they can't be too broken in this case.
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Anyways, I don't know if this is all that damning. It could just be that CPE wandered on while we were claiming and decided to claim Wu. Or he could have been waiting for someone to claim Wu, so he wasn't left in the dark.
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I'm very curious about those defending cpe. Perhaps there's some confusion over why we're pursuing cpe, but let's take a look at Az's post:
1) We're not pursuing the Wu. We're pursuing someone with a fishy claim who may likely be Wei or neutral.
2) I don't see how we already "can't afford" to check cpe. This is still Day 1, guys.
I understand that some of you have prior experiences with cpe from Blind Mafia, but you'll have to explain to the rest of us why you're more likely to believe that he's a blundering Wu than a scum/neutral who made a mistake. He hasn't said anything so far to defend himself other than:
And this is supposed to be enough for us to leave him alone?
Notstevie92, I think.
1. I was responding to C_F's outlook that lynching Wu is an acceptable alternative plan. I'm well aware that not everyone shares his view. Which is definitely a good thing, or this game would be over before it had begun.
2. We can't afford to "check" him? And by check, I assume you mean kill him? Verification via lynch is a last resort, and I haven't seen anything nearly convincing enough to make me satisfied with a CPE lynch at this point. Simply because it's still day one isn't an excuse to become reckless with our votes, and I'm surprised to see you advocating that kind of strategy, Fade.
Let's review the quote in question:
And Loran's analysis of it:
Is this hard evidence? Is this CPE making a claim that will damage the town? No. This is one player inferring a motivation on the part of another player, when either of the two possibilities they presented could be correct. In fact, both are probably in effect.
Yes, it's a logical fallacy for a townie CPE to miss that fact. But is it a logical fallacy that hurts the town? Is it even something that misleads the town, if we accept it to be true? Slightly, perhaps, if we put too much stock in the claimed Wu, which isn't too likely of a possibility. But he wasn't exactly saying that the mafia all claimed Shu, he just postulated that it was probable that they did, considering the numbers of claimed Shu. I find that to be fairly sound reasoning, with the proviso that we watch claimed Shu and Wu with equal vigilance.
Occasional logical oversights are forgivable in the case of most players, and certainly in the case of CPE/imhungry, if you believe it was a mistake. Blips like these are worth noting, but a single minor instance of misleading the town is hardly sufficient evidence to push for a quick lynch in and of itself.
The CPE wagon is overextending itself, looking for fresh blood on tenuous grounds. I'm willing to place a vote Fadeblue to help counterbalance that.
So, the case against him from your point of view is based on the sin of omission? Kind of shaky, don't you think?
Why don't we simply have him reveal his false claim, then, the next time he's around? And if he takes too long coming up with it...well. Then perhaps there's some substance to the accusations, after all.
CPE, since you're on right now, how about that name? Pronto, preferably: your game-life might just hang in the balance.
I don't see why you assume check = kill. I was asking cpe to answer questions, not telling him to die. Don't put words in my mouth. I realize that there are other people on this wagon that really do want to lynch him (and I've taken note of them), but I'm here primarily because I want to know what the deal is with the Wu. If he really is Wu, then we can get information from him. If he's scum, then we can hopefully discern that and lynch him.
After reading cpe's last post... Wow, he really is a horrible player. But anyway, his assertion is that he honestly claimed Wu because he was afraid of LAL. But obviously, LAL would only apply if we knew he was lying, which we wouldn't if he was using his safe claim. But I suppose that logic is a bit too much for him.
I still think we're going to need to hear his safe claim. If he really has one, then he's not going to lose anything by revealing it since he's already claimed Wu, and it only hurts us by revealing to the Mafia one character they can't claim (if they have safe claims, too, then it doesn't hurt us at all). If he doesn't have one, then he has to take a chance and guess correctly.
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
Votecount:
Sgdre 1 - (CropCircles)
Creampuffeater 9 - (loran16, fadeblue, chamber, rhinocero, Kenji, Peregrine_Falcon, Carrion pigeons, Sgdre, Hunted Charlie)
SOS 1 - (Jobie)
Fadeblue 1 (Azrael)
Not voting: RafaelK, Ged, SOS, swinkee, Creampuffeater, matjoeman, HAWKEYE7, KeeperEUSC, Crippled_Fist
11 to lynch.
I would also like to advise all wu to stay hidden. It isn't best for the shu but it could very well be best for us.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Also, just as a note, anyone who says that we should try to get all the Wu-ites to claim now or face the wrath of LAL doesnt really understand LAL IMHO. LAL states that townies dont have a reason to lie and thus liars should be lynched. In fact, Wu-ites have a good reason to lie about their nation (I wouldve if I had been a Wu-ite).
O so you are against us.
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
Wei - Make the numbers even, or w/e it's worded as
Wu - Be the last people standing
Shu - Rid the game of the Wei
So in theory, doesn't that make the Wu just another group we'll have to kill off at a later date?
I do not advocate killing cpe at the moment, but in the event that nothing else comes out of this day, we may have to get rid of him anyway, so today might be the time to do so.
That was in response to cpe asking them all to come forward. If they have a good reason they should feel free to claim.
I'm not anti shu, just pro wu. Right now shu and wu are aligned but I have no idea what will happen in the future and therefore am taking precautionary measures. The fact that I came forward with the false claim info should at least prove I’m anti wei.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3