While most mortal beings live only once, there exist a select collection of heroes and fiends who are destined to rise and fall in an endless cycle of slaughter. Tired of the meaningless of it all, a few of these elite warriors did the unthinkable and allied themselves with the enemy, sabotaging the fountains of life which they believed were the root of all their suffering.
Understandably unhappy with the destruction of both fountains, the rest of you have decided that if the traitors, whom you all have labeled the Corrupted Ones, are so eager to die once and for all, then die they shall. Swiftly.
The destruction of the fountains was an act of cowardice however, and carried out in under the cover of night - the perpetrators were obviously unwilling to reveal their identities, and now backed into a corner, are forced to take on their former brethren in a war of attrition.
Welcome to Defenders of the Ancients Mafia (or as I like to call it, Tree vs. Toilet).
The game begins on Night 0, and Day 1 will start as soon as I receive confirmation from all players and all relevant night decisions.
With the dawn comes the bleak knowledge that one of you would have been killed in the night. You assemble for a quick headcount, and quickly determine that the missing player is...
...hmm...
... all of you seem to be present. It must have been a quiet night last night.
Day 1 has begun.
Basic Rules:
There are no unique rules to DotA Mafia, since this is a normal. To keep in line with other mods, I'm going to ask that you NOT copy and paste your PMs, although paraphrasing is allowed. Obviously, you don't discuss this game outside the thread, and no PMs to each other unless your ability explicitly allows you to.
Simple majority to lynch, unvoting is allowed, as per a NORMAL game.
With 20 alive (shocking!), 11 votes are required for a lynch.
Vote Sutherlands for being the first one to random vote. Yeah, I concur, to properly make all our random voting choices having a complete list of players would be good.
Actually that's faulty reasoning btw, sutherlands. Sorry to take the sting out of your pseudorandom vote, but RafK isn't the only one who I would consider "kill automatically on N0" status. There's also Fadeblue and DYH and Axelrod and Cyan.
No, Hvir's games generally are very lethal night zeros. (I think our scum group capped the cop in WD2; CF, if I remember correctly who was later lynched for having a PM written by a nine year-old.)
EBWODP: I checked - memory served correctly. There were actually two deaths each night zero in both World Dom Mafia and WD2. Ironically, Crippled_Fist died N0 in both games. *waves to CF wherever he is*
So, yes, a kill-less N0 is indeed an oddity for a Hvir game.
{Hmm.} That could be why the initial player posts were suggesting a doc-protect.
I think now would be the perfect time to speedlynch Loran.
|bold and red text time!|Vote:Lor...|/end| wait...he's not in the game.
Oh well, time to join a random vote bandwagon and hope for the best. ^_-
Vote: Cyan
Hasn't it been a while since he was scum? Laws of probability and what not.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
-[thread=14456]The [Untitled] Avatar and Sig shop![/thread] Avatar from:[thread=25376] [Epic Graphics][/thread]
Actually that's faulty reasoning btw, sutherlands. Sorry to take the sting out of your pseudorandom vote, but RafK isn't the only one who I would consider "kill automatically on N0" status. There's also Fadeblue and DYH and Axelrod and Cyan.
Are they all scum?
If so, we are ****ed
* Sutherlands looks at Court Mafia.
Well, it's not impossible, but since there wasn't a kill, this logic goes out the window.
With the dawn comes the bleak knowledge that one of you would have been killed in the night. You assemble for a quick headcount, and quickly determine that the missing player is...
...hmm...
... all of you seem to be present. It must have been a quiet night last night.
Day 1 has begun.
By this, it seems to be pretty obvious. (This also happens to be the part I skipped over.) I mean... "the knowledge that one of you would have been killed in the night." So, this is actually the absolute best thing to happen for the town. 1) We get a kill-less N0. 2) We know that the doc isn't stupid. 3) We know that at least 1 of the people you would expect to die N0 isn't mafia. (Of course, the doc could be stupid and the mafia could have tried to kill someone that wasn't high-profile, but I find that much less likely)
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
First off, it's not speculation about last night's kill, I don't think. I think it's pretty obvious what happened. That said, why is it useless or hurtful? It gives the town something to talk about rather than random voting. I mean, at this point we're pretty much already out of the random voting stage. OMGUS FOS Kenji and Pod
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
Geez Kenji, you agree with everything he says? Maybe you're scum buddies with him! (</sarcasm>)
Ok, so yeah, they could have hit a kill-immune player, although I doubt the ability thing, since this is a normal. But hey, at least we're not talking about random votes anymore. (btw, Unvote) Now just to wait until everyone says something.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
The manner in which Kenji is agreeing w/ Pod bothers me. It's not so much what he's saying, because what they're saying is true. It's..something else that I can't describe exactly.
I don't think that Sutherlands has been acting scummy at all, just a little confused.
@Kenji: I would say that the manner in which you're agreeing with him bothers me. I read your post #22, and it feels to me like you just know something that the rest of us don't, as opposed to Pod's posts, which are simply speculative.
Marvelous. Another mafia game for me to fall hopelessly behind in....
I don't think speculating about what happened last night is scummy, though I don't expect we'll be able to figure it out for a bit yet (if ever).
I personally am a fan of the "someone tried to kill Axelrod, but if failed" theory of what happened.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
It seems sort of silly to ridicule a company for marketing efforts. Of course they are going to hype upcoming products, every company on the face of the planet does it, and it works, thats why they do it. There isn't really any sense complaining about it. If you don't like the marketing, ignore it.
And here I thought we were past the random voting stage...
I'm not sure what to think about Kenji. I see what Cyan is getting at, but I'm not sure I agree. It's better than nothing, but we've got plenty of time. Now we just need everyone to talk.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
@ fade: Id like to direct you to the post by WOLG right above me, but I can also save you some time and say no...
@ sutherlands: You were doing things that I consider not in the interest of the town (mainly the speculation). I am pretty sure that this was newbish, but felt it worth mentioning bc it was something and it is early in the game. Random voting usually continues until people are done with it, it doesnt always have a definite end. Speaking of which...
Serge is right. Unvote, VOTE sgd- I mean, VOTE Serge. Im willing to go by sg if people want (sorryguy isnt in the game).
Idly, if there's an RB who, for whatever demented reason, fired N1, he should probably claim target unless he has a good reason not to do so. Town RB's aren't gigantically high powered, and we have a good percentage play on whoever he claims to target. And if it's a scum RB, well, then we have a higher percentage play on him if the target does turn up town. It might cost us a disastrous situation later if the scum attempt to pursue a town RB, but that doesn't seem likely, and converting day 1 from what is essentially a random lynch into a plan backed up by information, which provides a pretty good edge for the town.
In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Idly, if there's an RB who, for whatever demented reason, fired N1, he should probably claim target unless he has a good reason not to do so. Town RB's aren't gigantically high powered, and we have a good percentage play on whoever he claims to target. And if it's a scum RB, well, then we have a higher percentage play on him if the target does turn up town. It might cost us a disastrous situation later if the scum attempt to pursue a town RB, but that doesn't seem likely, and converting day 1 from what is essentially a random lynch into a plan backed up by information, which provides a pretty good edge for the town.
In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too.
First off, if we go by one of the lists given earlier of who are "good" mafia players, and assume the mafia tried to kill one of them (not horribly speculative, if I do say so myself), and also assume that the doctor would protect a "good" player, because it is likely they are the target, they have a 20% chance of successfully protecting. If we instead assume that there is a roleblocker who decided to use their ability (which is definitely not a certainty), the odds of them correctly roleblocking the person whom the mafia killed with is 5%. Not impossible.
Now, here's what gets me... the play that Fayul suggests.
1) Have the RB claim. This gets a townie to claim a role. The role is not horribly strong, but it still hurts the town and makes them a target.
2) Lynch the person they roleblocked.
3) If the person comes up town, lynch the roleblocker.
I mentioned those percentages because he mentioned percentages. Saying that we would have a "higher percentage play" in step 3 if the roleblocker was mafia and just claimed that they blocked a townie. Later he says "oh yeah, and it might have been a doc protect." If we actually went with his plan, odds are that we would have lynched 2 townies in the first 2 days, giving the mafia a 4-0 headstart, since it is much more likely that the doc protected the correct person than a RB successfully hitting.
Vote Fayul
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
@fade: Yep, forgot about that one. Yet more N0 carnage.
You know, Pod's post 21 is a bit of a strawman, sarcasm or not. I didn't care much for it, nor Kenji's follow-up explanation-style post.
Fayul makes an excellent point- if it was, in fact, a roleblocker at work last night that would be worth coming forward to claim responsibility. However, given Hvir's explanations around a "normal" I don't think we're in any danger of seeing a daykill (not to mention said killer would also have to be quite a good guesser), so I'd advise them to hold off a bit. I'd liken it to an outed cop with information withholding his investigation until later in the day to garner reactions around the person he targeted the prior night.
Except that an outed Cop is significantly more concrete evidence, and a Town RB that fires N1, even if kills are allowed, is playing questionably to begin with.
As has been stated, there are a host of reasons that would result in a failed NK. I would say that a successful RB is the *least* likely of these, and even if we have a town RB that used their ability last night, they should hold this information for now. Also, the way that Fayul just arbitrarily decrees that, if the person that gets outed turns up town, we should next lynch the RB himself..that really bothers me, alot. It stinks of a mafioso trying to setup multiple town kills. Especially considering that it is actually MORE likely in that case that the RB just blocked town and assumed incorrectly than it is that a scum RB would be stupid enough to block a random townie and then try to use that to setup a mislynch. Unvote, Vote Fayul
Now, here's what gets me... the play that Fayul suggests.
1) Have the RB claim. This gets a townie to claim a role. The role is not horribly strong, but it still hurts the town and makes them a target.
2) Lynch the person they roleblocked.
3) If the person comes up town, lynch the roleblocker.
is not at all what Fayul just said.
Fayul said:
Quote from Fayul »
Idly, if there's an RB who, for whatever demented reason, fired N1, he should probably claim target unless he has a good reason not to do so. Town RB's aren't gigantically high powered, and we have a good percentage play on whoever he claims to target. And if it's a scum RB, well, then we have a higher percentage play on him if the target does turn up town. It might cost us a disastrous situation later if the scum attempt to pursue a town RB, but that doesn't seem likely, and converting day 1 from what is essentially a random lynch into a plan backed up by information, which provides a pretty good edge for the town.
In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too.
Firstly, she stated that if the RB fired on N1, which is a debatable play for a townie, who is more likely to block a random townie ability than a scum kill, anyhow, he should come forward unless he believes there to be a good reason not to do so (flavor?).
Secondly, she did not say to lynch the person they targeted. She said it gives us a plan backed by information - which is true. We don't just arbitrarily lynch people around here, there would be a claim and analysis, you know.
Lastly, she did not say to lynch the RB if the target turned up town. She said that it would give us a higher percentage play. Same thing applies here that applied above regarding the lynch.
Now, it is a little misleading how she applies "if it is a scum RB..." to the targeted player turning up town, but I think she was thinking in terms of if a scum RB tried to use this gambit to garner a mislynch. It should be duly noted that it is true, there is some risk that a townie RB could have blocked a townie last night and this could cause quite a quandry. Again, this is where claim and behavioral analysis comes into play, and is another reason for the town RB not to step up right this second and say "hey, I blocked player X last night".
Finally, she also gave legitimate credence to the fact it could have been a successful doc protect.
I think it's an interesting ploy, and one I would support. We have a bad habit here on MTGS of being overly cautious as townies; you might notice the scum taking advantage of that a bit as a result.
Of course this could all be much ado about nothing if we have no RB, or he chose not to fire last night.
@DYH: Boo. You making arguments for Fayul doesn't accomplish anything, and you know this.
Aside from which, throughout that post, you brought another aspect of Fayul's post to light. Fayul posts ideas, and then, to some degree, discredits them. To me, this is playing both sides of the field. Like, Fayul has proposed what she wants to happen, but included another argument that she can fall back on in case people don't like it. I fail to see any other reason as to why someone would propose a plan and, in the same post, discredit their own plan.
Firstly, she stated that if the RB fired on N1, which is a debatable play for a townie, who is more likely to block a random townie ability than a scum kill, anyhow, he should come forward unless he believes there to be a good reason not to do so (flavor?).
Secondly, she did not say to lynch the person they targeted. She said it gives us a plan backed by information - which is true. We don't just arbitrarily lynch people around here, there would be a claim and analysis, you know.
Lastly, she did not say to lynch the RB if the target turned up town. She said that it would give us a higher percentage play. Same thing applies here that applied above regarding the lynch.
Now, it is a little misleading how she applies "if it is a scum RB..." to the targeted player turning up town, but I think she was thinking in terms of if a scum RB tried to use this gambit to garner a mislynch.
So do we lynch the RB if the first person comes up town or not? Either it's a townie blocking a townie, or a scum blocking a townie. Which one? The post led to the scum being the RB, IMO. What do we do with scum? BURN HER!!!
It should be duly noted that it is true, there is some risk that a townie RB could have blocked a townie last night and this could cause quite a quandry.
Finally, she also gave legitimate credence to the fact it could have been a successful doc protect.
No, she said at the very end "In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too." As has already been said, that sounds VERY mafia. I was going to put that in my first post, but wanted to focus on the "plan".
I think it's an interesting ploy, and one I would support. We have a bad habit here on MTGS of being overly cautious as townies; you might notice the scum taking advantage of that a bit as a result.
You mean like you did? Even with our assumption (that there is a RB, and he did use his ability to RB someone)... even with that, the chances of a successful doc protect are 4X more likely than the roleblocker. This is NOT a plan I support, since it will most likely kill AT LEAST one townie.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
EBWODP: Now, somehow, it got posted before it was ready.
Seems to me that at current there are 3 groups in play.
Cyan/Sutherlands: Similar opinion on many things, and just seem to be friendly.
Pod/Kenji: Again, same thing, going off the same wavelength and just supporting each others opinion.
Fayul: Partially her words being twisted, partially honest-to-god scumminess. Also seemingly protected by DYH. Vote Fayul
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
[19:59] greymon90210: Hey StormBlind how tall are you? "I'm six money *****, don't forget it"
"The Critics always said that we'd only have a black president when pigs flu"...
Fayul's plan is pretty nowhere; unless someone voluntarily walks up and admits to a night 0 roleblock.
Fayul is logically doing this blind without knowledge of whether a roleblocker fired last night(that or proposed a plan where herself or someother scum gets it in the neck for being either the roleblocker or the roleblock victim), though, and it doesn't seem like any sort of cunning plan to achieve anything.
The dodgiest bit is mostly separate from that: she may be looking for doctor reactions (she's not alone there, either, there's been a couple of possible doctor fishing incidents already).
Idly, if there's an RB who, for whatever demented reason, fired N1, he should probably claim target unless he has a good reason not to do so. Town RB's aren't gigantically high powered, and we have a good percentage play on whoever he claims to target. And if it's a scum RB, well, then we have a higher percentage play on him if the target does turn up town. It might cost us a disastrous situation later if the scum attempt to pursue a town RB, but that doesn't seem likely, and converting day 1 from what is essentially a random lynch into a plan backed up by information, which provides a pretty good edge for the town.
In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too.
I think I agree with Cyan. The "idle" speculation here is suspect mainly because at the same time you throw out this "plan" you appear to recognize an equally likely, if not more likely alternate explanation for a missing kill. Which makes the entire post moot. It's like you said, "hey, here's an idea, but it's probably not a very good one and you probably shouldn't listen to it...."
And DYH is defending it rather strongly considering how weak a "plan" this is to begin with.
DYH: you really support a townie RB coming out? For this?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Also, the way that Fayul just arbitrarily decrees that, if the person that gets outed turns up town, we should next lynch the RB himself..that really bothers me, alot.
Normally, yes, but there's issues here.
1) A RB firing night 0 is usually scum, unless it's an idiot like MD acting without reason, and we should probably lynch such persons.
2) It's very, very unlikely that a scum Fayul would know about a townie roleblocking another townie (or that she would risk the possibility that a townie did roleblock the mafia's killer, which is a possibility and which she can't rule out until the night unless the scum have daytalk in this game).
To put it another way, I feel it is... unlikely... that Fayul would have seriously put that argument across as mafia. However, if she didn't expect anyone to follow it, that's anorhe
EBWODP: that's another thing entirely, and I think that's where the actual argument against Fayul is. I see Axelrod has more or less summed up that argument, and it's not a bad one. But the arguments based on the feasibility of the actual plan are misguided.
I'd say I'm against a RB coming out right now, if there is one. I believe it's more likely the doc got a sucessful protect than anything else.
I don't know if I find Fayul's speculation scummy or not. To me the most surprising thing is she's offering more than an 2 line post and not lurking in her usual self.
Maybe if she offers up more posts in defense I'll get a better read.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Current Soul Collector count: 184
PM me if you have any to trade or sell.
Games finished:17
Games ongoing:1
Town/Mafia/Other - 13/2/2
Won/Lost/replaced/modkilled- 4/13/3/1
NK'ed(vig'ed)/Lynched/Endgamed(Survived) - 7(2)/5/5(1)
Matrix Mafia Town MVP
Medieval Mafia Mafia MVP
Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale
I think that Fayul, as scum, would have looked at it this way. She presents a plan that, if followed, benefits the mafia greatly. If it's not followed, she can easily point back and say 'I was just throwing it out there and even included reasons as to why it's not a good idea'. The plan also serves as a smokescreen to see what reactions people give, if there are any tells in said reactions, etc. Honestly, from a scum standpoint, there is nothing to lose with any of this, if you assume that you'll be back to talk your way out of it(and most scum always seem to think they can do so, especially if they're bold enough to make this kind of move in the first place). I just think that Fayul presented it badly to begin with, and that's where all of this is coming from. When I look at Fayul's initial post, the thing just kind of stinks.
Let me preface this: I do not think it is likely that it was an RB situation.
However, if it was, and someone claims target, we have information,. A kill-less day 1 offers us absolutely 0 information to go upon. Therefore, if we present one of the few pieces of night information we can glean, then, therefore, we should try to get it. Percentage-wise, by following this plan, we are more likely to hit a scum than we are by firing blind like we are right now.
Again, it's not that big of a deal. I do not find the situation nothing. However, in the event that an RB -is- what happened, and siad blocker sees the obvious logic in this plan, then they ought to step forward. If not, then we lose nothing. This isn't any sort of gambit, or some plan set in stone, I am just showing that my analysis concludes that the level of information that would be offered to the town in this situation is high.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Except that's not true at all! By following this plan, we set up 2 non-random townie kills instead of two random ones.
"in the event that an RB -is- what happened" ... If that's the case, we'll never know. Roleblockers don't usually get information about whether their target tried to do something, and/or whether that something was killing someone. You're right that this isn't a gambit... it's something that will get a RB (not necessarily even a townie) out in the open for no gain.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
So do we lynch the RB if the first person comes up town or not? Either it's a townie blocking a townie, or a scum blocking a townie. Which one? The post led to the scum being the RB, IMO. What do we do with scum? BURN HER!!!
You're putting the cart before the horse. Again- you're missing something.
Quote from sutherlands »
In fact, this is MORE likely.
Yep, already covered that.
Quote from sutherlands »
No, she said at the very end "In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too." As has already been said, that sounds VERY mafia. I was going to put that in my first post, but wanted to focus on the "plan".
You just showed math to prove the same point- does that make you scummy, too?
Quote from sutherlands »
You mean like you did? Even with our assumption (that there is a RB, and he did use his ability to RB someone)... even with that, the chances of a successful doc protect are 4X more likely than the roleblocker. This is NOT a plan I support, since it will most likely kill AT LEAST one townie.
Hyperbole and paranoia are not tools of the town.
I'm pretty sure it's not 4x as likely for a doc protect as a roleblock. It still requires one person to select one person. Furthermore, you continue to discount the most important part of what would take place- claim, reactionary, and behavioral evidence. I'm in support of this play later on in the day. I want there to be sufficient material to cover when/if it happens.
@Axel: Yes, I do. If you've witnessed any of my play in minigames recently, I've taken on a more liberal approach to garnering information. Again, the whole point is moot if there isn't a town RB, or he chooses not to come out. It's certainly making for interesting discussion.
Well, DYH, you're gonna have to tell me what it is exactly that I'm "missing" since, well, obviously I don't know what that would be. Saying I'm missing something to discredit my points isn't really valid.
I'm pretty sure it's not 4x as likely for a doc protect as a roleblock. It still requires one person to select one person.
But it's one person out of 20 for the RB and one person out of 5 for the doc protect. (The only assumptions for that is that both the doc and the mafia would target one of the 5 people that have been put in the "good players" list.) 20:5 = 4x as likely.
Furthermore, you continue to discount the most important part of what would take place- claim, reactionary, and behavioral evidence. I'm in support of this play later on in the day. I want there to be sufficient material to cover when/if it happens.
I'm not discounting that at all, actually.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Level 1 Judge
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
The last section you quoted is what I think you're discounting, actually, and that's what I was referencing. We may not even lynch the blocked person. This is where claim/reaction/behavior analysis comes into play.
Regarding RB vs. doc: you're making some assumptions here that may not be valid.
1. The doc would protect one of the five named players- that's probably likely, but a newer player or someone who doesn't play often might not know "who to target". Or a smarter player might try to outguess the mafia on point 2 below.
2. The scum would target one of those players- see, this is where I think it's unlikely. As scum, look back to WD2 for example, we took out middle-ground players who were unlikely to be doc-protected.
3. The RB would target anyone. I don't think that's necessarily true either. Everyone's brain works differently, maybe they'd avoid a big name, maybe they'd target me, Cyan, RafK, or Fayul for a history of carrying scum roles. They may not even block. Who knows?
Other things to consider:
4. Hvir's games often have an SK. The probability is low, but maybe there's two missing kills.
5. Things I'm missing or leaving out intentionally. Sometimes there is more than meets the eye.
I think people are just discounting this idea out-of-hand because it's rather radical.
I think people are dismissing it because the chance of it working out to benefit the town is marginal, while the chance of it working out to benefit the mafia is much greater.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Understandably unhappy with the destruction of both fountains, the rest of you have decided that if the traitors, whom you all have labeled the Corrupted Ones, are so eager to die once and for all, then die they shall. Swiftly.
The destruction of the fountains was an act of cowardice however, and carried out in under the cover of night - the perpetrators were obviously unwilling to reveal their identities, and now backed into a corner, are forced to take on their former brethren in a war of attrition.
Welcome to Defenders of the Ancients Mafia (or as I like to call it, Tree vs. Toilet).
The game begins on Night 0, and Day 1 will start as soon as I receive confirmation from all players and all relevant night decisions.
Complete list of players:
14. Kenji
Our Hero Has Been Killed
17. Sutherlands - Crystal Maiden, Corrupted One
8. Axelrod - Night Stalker
5. carrion pigeons - Silencer
13. Wrath_of_DoG - Dwarven Sniper
10. StormBlind - Shadow Shaman, Corrupted One
19. Apokalypse Kid - Morphling
9. WellOfLostGnomes - Death Prophet
18.Diggy - Geomancer
1. MD - Omniknight
16. SorryGuy - Omniknight
6. sgdre - Soulkeeper, Corrupted One
11. Pod - Doom Bringer, Corrupted One
2. fadeblue - Necro'Lic
12. creampuffeater - Goblin Techies
3. Cyan - Troll Warlord
7. Disrupt_Your_Hymn - Geomancer
4. RafaelK
15. Vampyr
20. Abandon Hope
...hmm...
... all of you seem to be present. It must have been a quiet night last night.
Day 1 has begun.
Basic Rules:
There are no unique rules to DotA Mafia, since this is a normal. To keep in line with other mods, I'm going to ask that you NOT copy and paste your PMs, although paraphrasing is allowed. Obviously, you don't discuss this game outside the thread, and no PMs to each other unless your ability explicitly allows you to.
Simple majority to lynch, unvoting is allowed, as per a NORMAL game.
With 20 alive (shocking!), 11 votes are required for a lynch.
Go go go!
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Any chance we could get a complete list of players in the first post of this thread?
PM me if you have any to trade or sell.
Games finished:17
Games ongoing:1
Town/Mafia/Other - 13/2/2
Won/Lost/replaced/modkilled- 4/13/3/1
NK'ed(vig'ed)/Lynched/Endgamed(Survived) - 7(2)/5/5(1)
Matrix Mafia Town MVP
Medieval Mafia Mafia MVP
Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale
Are they all scum?
If so, we are ****ed
Vote Axelrod...for stuff.
Member of Team Lucksack
Voting for Ron Paul in 2008
Learn how to get better at Magic
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Also, isn't N0 usually a no-kill night anyway?
-[thread=14456]The [Untitled] Avatar and Sig shop![/thread] Avatar from:[thread=25376] [Epic Graphics][/thread]
Awards:
Elegant Mafia: The Joker, Mafia MVP
Unvote
No, Hvir's games generally are very lethal night zeros. (I think our scum group capped the cop in WD2; CF, if I remember correctly who was later lynched for having a PM written by a nine year-old.)
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
So, yes, a kill-less N0 is indeed an oddity for a Hvir game.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
I think now would be the perfect time to speedlynch Loran.
|bold and red text time!|Vote:Lor...|/end| wait...he's not in the game.
Oh well, time to join a random vote bandwagon and hope for the best. ^_-
Vote: Cyan
Hasn't it been a while since he was scum? Laws of probability and what not.
-[thread=14456]The [Untitled] Avatar and Sig shop![/thread] Avatar from:[thread=25376] [Epic Graphics][/thread]
Awards:
Elegant Mafia: The Joker, Mafia MVP
* Sutherlands looks at Court Mafia.
Well, it's not impossible, but since there wasn't a kill, this logic goes out the window.
If by "initial player posts" you mean mine...
By this, it seems to be pretty obvious. (This also happens to be the part I skipped over.) I mean... "the knowledge that one of you would have been killed in the night." So, this is actually the absolute best thing to happen for the town. 1) We get a kill-less N0. 2) We know that the doc isn't stupid. 3) We know that at least 1 of the people you would expect to die N0 isn't mafia. (Of course, the doc could be stupid and the mafia could have tried to kill someone that wasn't high-profile, but I find that much less likely)
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Ok, so yeah, they could have hit a kill-immune player, although I doubt the ability thing, since this is a normal. But hey, at least we're not talking about random votes anymore. (btw, Unvote) Now just to wait until everyone says something.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
-[thread=14456]The [Untitled] Avatar and Sig shop![/thread] Avatar from:[thread=25376] [Epic Graphics][/thread]
Awards:
Elegant Mafia: The Joker, Mafia MVP
That said, VOTE Kenji on WOLG's logic.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
@Kenji: I would say that the manner in which you're agreeing with him bothers me. I read your post #22, and it feels to me like you just know something that the rest of us don't, as opposed to Pod's posts, which are simply speculative.
I don't think speculating about what happened last night is scummy, though I don't expect we'll be able to figure it out for a bit yet (if ever).
I personally am a fan of the "someone tried to kill Axelrod, but if failed" theory of what happened.
Oh okay. Well, you telling us that changes everything. Vote Kenji
And here I thought we were past the random voting stage...
I'm not sure what to think about Kenji. I see what Cyan is getting at, but I'm not sure I agree. It's better than nothing, but we've got plenty of time. Now we just need everyone to talk.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
@ sutherlands: You were doing things that I consider not in the interest of the town (mainly the speculation). I am pretty sure that this was newbish, but felt it worth mentioning bc it was something and it is early in the game. Random voting usually continues until people are done with it, it doesnt always have a definite end. Speaking of which...
Serge is right. Unvote, VOTE sgd- I mean, VOTE Serge. Im willing to go by sg if people want (sorryguy isnt in the game).
Ad-hom, but whatever.
Random voting continues until people find something to talk about, which we have.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too.
First off, if we go by one of the lists given earlier of who are "good" mafia players, and assume the mafia tried to kill one of them (not horribly speculative, if I do say so myself), and also assume that the doctor would protect a "good" player, because it is likely they are the target, they have a 20% chance of successfully protecting. If we instead assume that there is a roleblocker who decided to use their ability (which is definitely not a certainty), the odds of them correctly roleblocking the person whom the mafia killed with is 5%. Not impossible.
Now, here's what gets me... the play that Fayul suggests.
1) Have the RB claim. This gets a townie to claim a role. The role is not horribly strong, but it still hurts the town and makes them a target.
2) Lynch the person they roleblocked.
3) If the person comes up town, lynch the roleblocker.
I mentioned those percentages because he mentioned percentages. Saying that we would have a "higher percentage play" in step 3 if the roleblocker was mafia and just claimed that they blocked a townie. Later he says "oh yeah, and it might have been a doc protect." If we actually went with his plan, odds are that we would have lynched 2 townies in the first 2 days, giving the mafia a 4-0 headstart, since it is much more likely that the doc protected the correct person than a RB successfully hitting.
Vote Fayul
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
You know, Pod's post 21 is a bit of a strawman, sarcasm or not. I didn't care much for it, nor Kenji's follow-up explanation-style post.
Fayul makes an excellent point- if it was, in fact, a roleblocker at work last night that would be worth coming forward to claim responsibility. However, given Hvir's explanations around a "normal" I don't think we're in any danger of seeing a daykill (not to mention said killer would also have to be quite a good guesser), so I'd advise them to hold off a bit. I'd liken it to an outed cop with information withholding his investigation until later in the day to garner reactions around the person he targeted the prior night.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
As has been stated, there are a host of reasons that would result in a failed NK. I would say that a successful RB is the *least* likely of these, and even if we have a town RB that used their ability last night, they should hold this information for now. Also, the way that Fayul just arbitrarily decrees that, if the person that gets outed turns up town, we should next lynch the RB himself..that really bothers me, alot. It stinks of a mafioso trying to setup multiple town kills. Especially considering that it is actually MORE likely in that case that the RB just blocked town and assumed incorrectly than it is that a scum RB would be stupid enough to block a random townie and then try to use that to setup a mislynch. Unvote, Vote Fayul
is not at all what Fayul just said.
Fayul said:
Firstly, she stated that if the RB fired on N1, which is a debatable play for a townie, who is more likely to block a random townie ability than a scum kill, anyhow, he should come forward unless he believes there to be a good reason not to do so (flavor?).
Secondly, she did not say to lynch the person they targeted. She said it gives us a plan backed by information - which is true. We don't just arbitrarily lynch people around here, there would be a claim and analysis, you know.
Lastly, she did not say to lynch the RB if the target turned up town. She said that it would give us a higher percentage play. Same thing applies here that applied above regarding the lynch.
Now, it is a little misleading how she applies "if it is a scum RB..." to the targeted player turning up town, but I think she was thinking in terms of if a scum RB tried to use this gambit to garner a mislynch. It should be duly noted that it is true, there is some risk that a townie RB could have blocked a townie last night and this could cause quite a quandry. Again, this is where claim and behavioral analysis comes into play, and is another reason for the town RB not to step up right this second and say "hey, I blocked player X last night".
Finally, she also gave legitimate credence to the fact it could have been a successful doc protect.
I think it's an interesting ploy, and one I would support. We have a bad habit here on MTGS of being overly cautious as townies; you might notice the scum taking advantage of that a bit as a result.
Of course this could all be much ado about nothing if we have no RB, or he chose not to fire last night.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Aside from which, throughout that post, you brought another aspect of Fayul's post to light. Fayul posts ideas, and then, to some degree, discredits them. To me, this is playing both sides of the field. Like, Fayul has proposed what she wants to happen, but included another argument that she can fall back on in case people don't like it. I fail to see any other reason as to why someone would propose a plan and, in the same post, discredit their own plan.
A plan to do what? Lynch someone...
So do we lynch the RB if the first person comes up town or not? Either it's a townie blocking a townie, or a scum blocking a townie. Which one? The post led to the scum being the RB, IMO. What do we do with scum? BURN HER!!!
In fact, this is MORE likely.
No, she said at the very end "In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too." As has already been said, that sounds VERY mafia. I was going to put that in my first post, but wanted to focus on the "plan".
You mean like you did? Even with our assumption (that there is a RB, and he did use his ability to RB someone)... even with that, the chances of a successful doc protect are 4X more likely than the roleblocker. This is NOT a plan I support, since it will most likely kill AT LEAST one townie.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Seems to me that at current there are 3 groups in play.
Cyan/Sutherlands: Similar opinion on many things, and just seem to be friendly.
Pod/Kenji: Again, same thing, going off the same wavelength and just supporting each others opinion.
Fayul: Partially her words being twisted, partially honest-to-god scumminess. Also seemingly protected by DYH. Vote Fayul
Fayul's plan is pretty nowhere; unless someone voluntarily walks up and admits to a night 0 roleblock.
Fayul is logically doing this blind without knowledge of whether a roleblocker fired last night(that or proposed a plan where herself or someother scum gets it in the neck for being either the roleblocker or the roleblock victim), though, and it doesn't seem like any sort of cunning plan to achieve anything.
The dodgiest bit is mostly separate from that: she may be looking for doctor reactions (she's not alone there, either, there's been a couple of possible doctor fishing incidents already).
I think I agree with Cyan. The "idle" speculation here is suspect mainly because at the same time you throw out this "plan" you appear to recognize an equally likely, if not more likely alternate explanation for a missing kill. Which makes the entire post moot. It's like you said, "hey, here's an idea, but it's probably not a very good one and you probably shouldn't listen to it...."
And DYH is defending it rather strongly considering how weak a "plan" this is to begin with.
DYH: you really support a townie RB coming out? For this?
Normally, yes, but there's issues here.
1) A RB firing night 0 is usually scum, unless it's an idiot like MD acting without reason, and we should probably lynch such persons.
2) It's very, very unlikely that a scum Fayul would know about a townie roleblocking another townie (or that she would risk the possibility that a townie did roleblock the mafia's killer, which is a possibility and which she can't rule out until the night unless the scum have daytalk in this game).
To put it another way, I feel it is... unlikely... that Fayul would have seriously put that argument across as mafia. However, if she didn't expect anyone to follow it, that's anorhe
(Don't know why that posted early)
I don't know if I find Fayul's speculation scummy or not. To me the most surprising thing is she's offering more than an 2 line post and not lurking in her usual self.
Maybe if she offers up more posts in defense I'll get a better read.
PM me if you have any to trade or sell.
Games finished:17
Games ongoing:1
Town/Mafia/Other - 13/2/2
Won/Lost/replaced/modkilled- 4/13/3/1
NK'ed(vig'ed)/Lynched/Endgamed(Survived) - 7(2)/5/5(1)
Matrix Mafia Town MVP
Medieval Mafia Mafia MVP
Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale
However, if it was, and someone claims target, we have information,. A kill-less day 1 offers us absolutely 0 information to go upon. Therefore, if we present one of the few pieces of night information we can glean, then, therefore, we should try to get it. Percentage-wise, by following this plan, we are more likely to hit a scum than we are by firing blind like we are right now.
Again, it's not that big of a deal. I do not find the situation nothing. However, in the event that an RB -is- what happened, and siad blocker sees the obvious logic in this plan, then they ought to step forward. If not, then we lose nothing. This isn't any sort of gambit, or some plan set in stone, I am just showing that my analysis concludes that the level of information that would be offered to the town in this situation is high.
"in the event that an RB -is- what happened" ... If that's the case, we'll never know. Roleblockers don't usually get information about whether their target tried to do something, and/or whether that something was killing someone. You're right that this isn't a gambit... it's something that will get a RB (not necessarily even a townie) out in the open for no gain.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Um, ok?
Hmm. You're missing something here.
You're putting the cart before the horse. Again- you're missing something.
Yep, already covered that.
You just showed math to prove the same point- does that make you scummy, too?
Hyperbole and paranoia are not tools of the town.
I'm pretty sure it's not 4x as likely for a doc protect as a roleblock. It still requires one person to select one person. Furthermore, you continue to discount the most important part of what would take place- claim, reactionary, and behavioral evidence. I'm in support of this play later on in the day. I want there to be sufficient material to cover when/if it happens.
@Axel: Yes, I do. If you've witnessed any of my play in minigames recently, I've taken on a more liberal approach to garnering information. Again, the whole point is moot if there isn't a town RB, or he chooses not to come out. It's certainly making for interesting discussion.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
But it's one person out of 20 for the RB and one person out of 5 for the doc protect. (The only assumptions for that is that both the doc and the mafia would target one of the 5 people that have been put in the "good players" list.) 20:5 = 4x as likely.
I'm not discounting that at all, actually.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Regarding RB vs. doc: you're making some assumptions here that may not be valid.
1. The doc would protect one of the five named players- that's probably likely, but a newer player or someone who doesn't play often might not know "who to target". Or a smarter player might try to outguess the mafia on point 2 below.
2. The scum would target one of those players- see, this is where I think it's unlikely. As scum, look back to WD2 for example, we took out middle-ground players who were unlikely to be doc-protected.
3. The RB would target anyone. I don't think that's necessarily true either. Everyone's brain works differently, maybe they'd avoid a big name, maybe they'd target me, Cyan, RafK, or Fayul for a history of carrying scum roles. They may not even block. Who knows?
Other things to consider:
4. Hvir's games often have an SK. The probability is low, but maybe there's two missing kills.
5. Things I'm missing or leaving out intentionally. Sometimes there is more than meets the eye.
I think people are just discounting this idea out-of-hand because it's rather radical.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29