@Axel: Yes, I do. If you've witnessed any of my play in minigames recently, I've taken on a more liberal approach to garnering information. Again, the whole point is moot if there isn't a town RB, or he chooses not to come out. It's certainly making for interesting discussion.
Let me see if I am hearing you correctly: It would be a good play (or just an acceptable play?) for a town RB to announce himself this morning and say "I targeted X last Night." The theory being that, because there appear to be missing kill/s, X would be more likely to be scum. Is that right?
Because if that's what you are saying (which is what Fayul said and immediately backtracked on) this is just poor logic and poor play.
It would make slightly more sense to encourage someone who was role-blocked last Night (if said person is aware they were role-blocked last Night) to come forward only to say that they were blocked. With that tidbit of information, it might be possible to calculate some odds a little bit better. But I will freely admit I haven't thought that one completely through. It might not do any good either. I don't see where it actively hurts us though, by revealing a role to the Mafia.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I am saying that it would be acceptable for the roleblocker to come forward later today if he deems it prudent and say, "I targeted X last night", yes. The emphasis still on later. I don't know if I'm not being clear enough, or if people are just misinterpreting my intent. Coming forward right now is essentially useless. Coming forward after we have some content to analyze in conjunction with this information seems perfectly fine to me. Particularly, for example, if said player comes under scrutiny for other aspects of his play.
The thing is, I think the town is overestimating the power of a town roleblocker as a role. It really is a very weak power role. What does it even -do-, other than randomly hit a scum, sometimes?
I find that games often have no information to go on in the early game. Therefore, I am providing a perfectly legitimate outlet for information. We can use this information not just for this day or two days, but the reactions to the information (and, indeed, to my proposal in the first place ) will be useful for the entire game.
Oh, and for people wondering why I'm being active and more content-filled than usual: it's because my strength lies in logical analysis, not picking up emotional tells. I am posting more because i've found logic to use, whereas in most games I don't get much in because much of the play is focused upon people's reactions, an area I am less competent at analyzing.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
While I believe that a doc protect was more likely than a town roleblocker hitting scum, I agree with DYH that the role blocker should wait until much later to claim his target.
Furthermore, I agree that Fayul was just throwing out ideas for discussion since it was still the very beginning of the game. I'm never opposed to someone trying to generate discussion on Day 1.
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Fayul is logically doing this blind without knowledge of whether a roleblocker fired last night(that or proposed a plan where herself or someother scum gets it in the neck for being either the roleblocker or the roleblock victim), though, and it doesn't seem like any sort of cunning plan to achieve anything.
This seems to be the theme to everyone's discussion of my objective. I think you are are looking at it the wrong way. Let's look at it in another fashion:
1. Set of all scenarios in which someone claims a N1 block. (unlikely)
1a. A townie randomly hit a scum. O joyous day, Expected value: +++ Plausibility: Possible
1b. A scum claims the block to cast suspicion on the townie. We likely arrive at a lynch of the target day 1 (though, again, this absolutely should not be automatic). However, day 1 lynches with no information are likely to be townie anyway. We have just cast heavy suspicion onto a mafiaso, for the price of almost nothing (lynching a townie day 1, when most of the time that is what happens anyway, seeing as how day 1 lynches are close to random.) Expected value: Probably a wash, but possibly positive. The town is not likely to be worse off by my analysis not taking place, but it's not likely to benefit much overall, either. Plausibility: The least likely outcome, unless the scum is straight-up stupid.
1c. A townie randomly blocked another townie. The worst possible outcome. We lose two days worth of lynches, however we gain -infinite- amounts of information, and 2 mislynches while only giving the scum opportunity for 2 kills is definitely a winnable situation. Expected value: -. This outcome is detrimental to the town, but only slightly worse than it would have been without the claim never taking place. Plausibility: About as possible as option 1a.
Set 2: Set of all scenarios in which nobody claims a roleblock.
2a. Nobody claims a roleblock. We are at the same place as where we started, but, due to the discussion generated over this piece, we have large amounts more reactions that can be analyzed, which will likely prove to be extremely important for the town. Expected value: +. No significant gains are made, but the important discussion definitely gives the town more to analyze in the future. Possiblity: The most likely outcome by a good margin.
Would someone like to dispute my analysis?
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Yeah... I would. 1a is not nearly as likely as 1c, that's one of the main reasons I'm opposed to it. Also, 2 mislynches is more than one "-". You say we gain "infinite" amounts of information, but we don't. I don't understand how you could possibly believe this.
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Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
I would say that a townie RBing a random townie is significantly more likely than a townie RBing a scum and it happening to be the scum that submitted the kill. The odds that the RB blocked a townie are what, 15(ish) out of 20? The odds that he RBed the one scum that happened to submit a kill tonight..1 out of 20. Doesn't seem like a great scenario. It also gets worse because, if the RB blocked someone, inevitably that person is going to have to claim. What if they're a town power role? Now we've outed two major town players for no reason. I just really don't see how you can figure this is worth the risk. Honestly, the worst part is that you seem to still be promoting this because it would 'generate alot of discussion'. But it really wouldn't. The RB would come forward and name who they blocked. That person might as well skip the entire voting process, which would only be a formality, and just claim. Either A)we don't believe their claim and lynch them, and in all likelihood they're town or B)they have a convincing claim, meaning that we probably just outed another power role. I feel like you're intentionally downplaying the negative aspect of your plan and, essentially, creating false reasons to promote the positive aspect of it. As such, my vote will be staying where it is.
Wow, this game started already. Now, normally I think I would support Fayuls plan, had it been Day 2 or 3, but the fact that it is D1, leads to many wierd situations. I think its obvious that this "RB" probably hit a Townie, rather than the scum making the math useless. Also no matter howmuch math you use, you cannot actually tell us if the "RB" hit scum. You can say there is a chance he diddnt, but a smaller chance he did, with very little definite info that can help us. Besides all of those, I have to agree with Cyan and Axel here, that the "RB" should not come out. Since I seemed to have missed random voting, Vote Pod.
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Quote from hotshizzle »
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Fayul, why on earth would you say that a town RB blocking a scum is as likely as a town RB blocking a town? I'm honestly interested in hearing this rationale.
I think this subject has been beaten to death, in any case. Unless Fayul actually has a reason for her contention there, it should be pretty obvious that a roleblocker, who for whatever reason chose to block last night, shouldn't claim his target.
The issue now is that Fayul needs to defend herself. 1) Explain how she could think what she says she thought, and 2) If she can't, explain what she was trying to accomplish by trying to convince the RB to expose himself.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
If I might make a suggestion...How about the RB just target the same person they did last night and if there's no kill tonight, then they come forwards with information?
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That's how it worked in Elegant Mafia. The GF would make the kill every night he was alive, when he died GF(and thus killing) power would move to the next mafia member in the line of succession.
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Overall, I'm not buying Fayul's argument. I believe the chances of outing two townies(be they power or vanilla) isn't worth the chance of maybe getting a scum.
I don't believe Fayul's argument is scummy enough to place a vote, I think she's just throwing out various possibilities to advance the game.
As for the RB coming out/staying hidden, assuming there is one AND used the ability N0, I've change slightly on that. I think it could worthwhile in coming out Day 2, after we have a lynch and NK. This gives us some ground to work from in analyzing if the target is scum or not.
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If the mafia kill was actually blocked, obviously they're going to have someone else carry out the kill tonight.
Listen to this man. He is making sense.
Actually I think it's entirely possible Fayul is just tossing around half-formed ideas without malicious intent. It's DYH's rather vigorous defense of same that sticks out more. My feeling is that it is far more likely that a Mafia would leap to the defense of a weird townie strategy then that they would propose such a strategy themselves. And that a townie would be more cautious about supporting something so questionable (them not knowing the alignment of the person proposing it, of course)
So, in that regard:
Vote: Disrupt_Your_Hymn
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
WoLG: Actually in Elegant, the "GF" had decision-making power, not a requirement to make the kill.
I don't like Fayul's plan, nor do I like DYH's defense of it. While later information may make it a reasonable play, the manner in which he stepped in to support it does not sit well with me.
They're on my watch list, but I don't think it's enough yet for me to vote. I'd still like to see more posts from other people first so I can get a better picture of the whole group.
EWP: Axelrod makes sense there, and it echoes my feelings about DYH's stepping in. That's likely where my vote will be, but like I said, I'm waiting for a bit more discussion.
I am saying that it would be acceptable for the roleblocker to come forward later today if he deems it prudent and say, "I targeted X last night", yes. The emphasis still on later. I don't know if I'm not being clear enough, or if people are just misinterpreting my intent. Coming forward right now is essentially useless. Coming forward after we have some content to analyze in conjunction with this information seems perfectly fine to me. Particularly, for example, if said player comes under scrutiny for other aspects of his play.
That is the last post I made regarding the "plan". This is your response:
Actually I think it's entirely possible Fayul is just tossing around half-formed ideas without malicious intent. It's DYH's rather vigorous defense of same that sticks out more. My feeling is that it is far more likely that a Mafia would leap to the defense of a weird townie strategy then that they would propose such a strategy themselves. And that a townie would be more cautious about supporting something so questionable (them not knowing the alignment of the person proposing it, of course)
So, in that regard:
Vote: Disrupt_Your_Hymn
No mention of the fact that I'm supporting a variation of what Fayul suggested (delayed reveal). No rebuttal to my comments, no counter-points to argue, just a psychological evaluation of how a mafiaso and a townie would play.
Hmm.
So, Axel, I ask you- what exactly am I supposed to say in my defense? You've basically profiled my maneuver as a scum play, and others' reaction (including your own) as a townie play. That I disagree?
I find it weird that no one is considering the possibility of two kills being stopped last night (and the DYH rejected it so quickly). This seems to me to be the most likely situation. I mean, when was the last 20 person game on this site that only had one kill per night? This would make the possibility of a roleblocked scum more likely.
Also, I agree with Pod two-fold. I would fire n0 as a town RB, and I think it might be a good idea for people to claim if they were roleblocked at some point today.
I like how everyone is saying that the chance of the roleblocker randomly blocking scum is only 1 in 20. Yes, that is true...-before we have any other information-. However, now we have the information that a -kill was stopped-: If you think that a townie roleblocker is in the game, and that he fired n1, the probability of him randomly hitting scum is the exact same probability of a successful docblock.
Note that there's also somewhat of a chance that there -was- an SK, and, therefore, two kills were blocked, making situation 1a infinitely more likely to happen.
Wow, this game started already. Now, normally I think I would support Fayuls plan, had it been Day 2 or 3, but the fact that it is D1, leads to many wierd situations.
The only reason I propose this plan is because it is day 1. On a killeless daty 1, the town has no information to go on. An informed lynch is superior to an uninformed lynch. On day 2, we would already have a lot of information to go on, making this less necessary.
I think its obvious that this "RB" probably hit a Townie, rather than the scum making the math useless.
That's absolutely wonderful what you think. Since when were your opinions so "obviously" correct?
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
That is the last post I made regarding the "plan". This is your response:
No mention of the fact that I'm supporting a variation of what Fayul suggested (delayed reveal). No rebuttal to my comments, no counter-points to argue, just a psychological evaluation of how a mafiaso and a townie would play.
Hmm.
So, Axel, I ask you- what exactly am I supposed to say in my defense? You've basically profiled my maneuver as a scum play, and others' reaction (including your own) as a townie play. That I disagree?
I'm a profiler. Sue me.
Also, what you are saying now does smell a bit like back-tracking. Your emphasis on the (hypothetical) RB coming out "later" as opposed to "now" is simply not as great of a distinction as you are making it out to be.
Quote from DYH »
Fayul makes an excellent point- if it was, in fact, a roleblocker at work last night that would be worth coming forward to claim responsibility. However, given Hvir's explanations around a "normal" I don't think we're in any danger of seeing a daykill (not to mention said killer would also have to be quite a good guesser), so I'd advise them to hold off a bit. I'd liken it to an outed cop with information withholding his investigation until later in the day to garner reactions around the person he targeted the prior night.
Quote from DYH »
I think it's an interesting ploy, and one I would support. We have a bad habit here on MTGS of being overly cautious as townies; you might notice the scum taking advantage of that a bit as a result.
Quote from DYH »
@Axel: Yes, I do. If you've witnessed any of my play in minigames recently, I've taken on a more liberal approach to garnering information. Again, the whole point is moot if there isn't a town RB, or he chooses not to come out. It's certainly making for interesting discussion.
Quote from DYH »
I think people are just discounting this idea out-of-hand because it's rather radical.
Now you are saying he should come out later "if he deems it prudent" and you agree that his coming out now is "essentially useless" and you even appear to suggest that it's something that he could/should hold for when/if he himself comes under scrutiny, as a means of defending himself.
Indeed that might be a good claim for a person under duress (especially if not countered by anyone else). But the entire point of the original suggestion that the RB come out, was the theory that it said something about the RB's target. And that theory is unaffected regardless of whether the person comes out now or later, or is under "scrutiny" themselves or claiming under no pressure whatsoever.
Sgdre: I have considered the possibility of 2 missing kills. The issuse there is where in the opening post
With the dawn comes the bleak knowledge that one of you would have been killed in the night
This could be reading more into things then we should, but the "one of you" suggests one missing/blocked kill.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
It occurs to me that if a Mafia kill was blocked last Night, the mafia would want to keep that under wraps as much as possible. They might know that it was, indeed, a role-blocked kill, as opposed to something else such as a Doc protect or an immune target. Which could put some people's responses into a different light.
And also brings me back to whether anyone want to fess up to knowing that they were Role-blocked (or a RB attempt was made) last night.
See, I look at both sides.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
But really...
I've thought of the idea that the mafia is trying to cover up the RB, but 1) I find it much more likely that a doc protected (even if fayul ignores general actions of docs protecting likely targets) and 2) Only one of the mafia would know.
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Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
It would make slightly more sense to encourage someone who was role-blocked last Night (if said person is aware they were role-blocked last Night) to come forward only to say that they were blocked. With that tidbit of information, it might be possible to calculate some odds a little bit better. But I will freely admit I haven't thought that one completely through. It might not do any good either. I don't see where it actively hurts us though, by revealing a role to the Mafia.
@Cyan, did you see this one above? ('here's a plan I haven't thought through, it may or may not work')
Quote from Cyan »
Aside from which, throughout that post, you brought another aspect of Fayul's post to light. Fayul posts ideas, and then, to some degree, discredits them. To me, this is playing both sides of the field. Like, Fayul has proposed what she wants to happen, but included another argument that she can fall back on in case people don't like it. I fail to see any other reason as to why someone would propose a plan and, in the same post, discredit their own plan.
Isn't this pretty much what Axelrod just did? You've posted since then, so why not address that about his post?
Quote from Pod »
I do like the idea of the person who was actually roleblocked coming forward though. In this day and age, it doesn't matter if you actually have an abilty or not, you're still likely to get an RB pm, so it doesn't give away abilty, and it gives us the exact same info that the RB claiming would give us without outing it. Theoretically it outs a non-SK, but I can't see the SK worrying about some random dude at this point in time. He'll be gunning for power.
Quote from sgdre »
Also, I agree with Pod two-fold. I would fire n0 as a town RB, and I think it might be a good idea for people to claim if they were roleblocked at some point today.
@Axel, Pod, Sgdre: Why would you support the blocked player coming forward? I am very curious to hear the rationale behind this.
To pod, especially, who thinks it will clear a non-SK person. There was no SK kill last night, in fact there were no kills. How does that work? Why would a blocked person come forward on their own? Since you state that pms generally go to anyone, regardless of having a role, haven't you just opened the door for a scum to 'clear' himself as a vanilla townie who got blocked?
I'd like sgdre to explain his rationale first.
PPE: Nitpick, it's 1 in 19, not 1 in 20. RB wouldn't target himself.
PPE2: I've maintained "later" in every post I've made regarding this "plan". I believe you've quoted about two posts broken up there. I think you're lacking in showing proper context.
Post 40:@fade: Yep, forgot about that one. Yet more N0 carnage.
You know, Pod's post 21 is a bit of a strawman, sarcasm or not. I didn't care much for it, nor Kenji's follow-up explanation-style post.
Fayul makes an excellent point- if it was, in fact, a roleblocker at work last night that would be worth coming forward to claim responsibility. However, given Hvir's explanations around a "normal" I don't think we're in any danger of seeing a daykill (not to mention said killer would also have to be quite a good guesser), so I'd advise them to hold off a bit. I'd liken it to an outed cop with information withholding his investigation until later in the day to garner reactions around the person he targeted the prior night.
Quote from DYH »
Post42:Speaking of strawman arguments, this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sutherlands Now, here's what gets me... the play that Fayul suggests. 1) Have the RB claim. This gets a townie to claim a role. The role is not horribly strong, but it still hurts the town and makes them a target. 2) Lynch the person they roleblocked. 3) If the person comes up town, lynch the roleblocker.
is not at all what Fayul just said.
Fayul said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fayul Idly, if there's an RB who, for whatever demented reason, fired N1, he should probably claim target unless he has a good reason not to do so. Town RB's aren't gigantically high powered, and we have a good percentage play on whoever he claims to target. And if it's a scum RB, well, then we have a higher percentage play on him if the target does turn up town. It might cost us a disastrous situation later if the scum attempt to pursue a town RB, but that doesn't seem likely, and converting day 1 from what is essentially a random lynch into a plan backed up by information, which provides a pretty good edge for the town.
In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too.
Firstly, she stated that if the RB fired on N1, which is a debatable play for a townie, who is more likely to block a random townie ability than a scum kill, anyhow, he should come forward unless he believes there to be a good reason not to do so (flavor?).
Secondly, she did not say to lynch the person they targeted. She said it gives us a plan backed by information - which is true. We don't just arbitrarily lynch people around here, there would be a claim and analysis, you know.
Lastly, she did not say to lynch the RB if the target turned up town. She said that it would give us a higher percentage play. Same thing applies here that applied above regarding the lynch.
Now, it is a little misleading how she applies "if it is a scum RB..." to the targeted player turning up town, but I think she was thinking in terms of if a scum RB tried to use this gambit to garner a mislynch. It should be duly noted that it is true, there is some risk that a townie RB could have blocked a townie last night and this could cause quite a quandry. Again, this is where claim and behavioral analysis comes into play, and is another reason for the town RB not to step up right this second and say "hey, I blocked player X last night".
Finally, she also gave legitimate credence to the fact it could have been a successful doc protect.
I think it's an interesting ploy, and one I would support. We have a bad habit here on MTGS of being overly cautious as townies; you might notice the scum taking advantage of that a bit as a result.
Of course this could all be much ado about nothing if we have no RB, or he chose not to fire last night.
Quote from DYH »
Post 55:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sutherlands This would be the assumption, not the plan.
Um, ok?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sutherlands A plan to do what? Lynch someone...
Hmm. You're missing something here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sutherlands So do we lynch the RB if the first person comes up town or not? Either it's a townie blocking a townie, or a scum blocking a townie. Which one? The post led to the scum being the RB, IMO. What do we do with scum? BURN HER!!!
You're putting the cart before the horse. Again- you're missing something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sutherlands In fact, this is MORE likely.
Yep, already covered that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sutherlands No, she said at the very end "In any case, though, a successful doccing might be pretty likely, too." As has already been said, that sounds VERY mafia. I was going to put that in my first post, but wanted to focus on the "plan".
You just showed math to prove the same point- does that make you scummy, too?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sutherlands You mean like you did? Even with our assumption (that there is a RB, and he did use his ability to RB someone)... even with that, the chances of a successful doc protect are 4X more likely than the roleblocker. This is NOT a plan I support, since it will most likely kill AT LEAST one townie.
Hyperbole and paranoia are not tools of the town.
I'm pretty sure it's not 4x as likely for a doc protect as a roleblock. It still requires one person to select one person. Furthermore, you continue to discount the most important part of what would take place- claim, reactionary, and behavioral evidence. I'm in support of this play later on in the day. I want there to be sufficient material to cover when/if it happens.
@Axel: Yes, I do. If you've witnessed any of my play in minigames recently, I've taken on a more liberal approach to garnering information. Again, the whole point is moot if there isn't a town RB, or he chooses not to come out. It's certainly making for interesting discussion.
Quote from DYH »
Post 60:I am saying that it would be acceptable for the roleblocker to come forward later today if he deems it prudent and say, "I targeted X last night", yes. The emphasis still on later. I don't know if I'm not being clear enough, or if people are just misinterpreting my intent. Coming forward right now is essentially useless. Coming forward after we have some content to analyze in conjunction with this information seems perfectly fine to me. Particularly, for example, if said player comes under scrutiny for other aspects of his play.
I still think Fayul's plan screams of scum. Not once has she said anything about the RB coming out later, which is what DYH is suggesting. Her plan is/was for the RB to come out, kill the person they targetted, then if they turn up town, kill the RB. I have not seen anything that Fayul has said to make me think that this is not what she is advocating. Even in the first post about it, she goes back and says "oh yeah, but maybe this isn't the case" which really screams scum to me. DYH I'm not sure on, because having the RB come out later to look at the reactions is completely a different plan than the one proposed by Fayul.
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PPE2: I've maintained "later" in every post I've made regarding this "plan". I believe you've quoted about two posts broken up there. I think you're lacking in showing proper context.
Each of those quotes is from a different post. You only said "later" in one of them (which, admittendly, was the first one). My point is that "later" vs. "now" is just not that big a distinction.
Also: I have thought a bit more about having "anyone who knows they were RB last Night come forward" and I think it is a reasonable next step. But if I explain exactly what I'm looking for with that, it could defeat the whole purpose of having them say.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I stand by my thoughts around the RB-reveal later plan. This has been a rather unconventional Night Zero, so it's worth a shot, IMO.
Secondly, for the record, I'm actually most interested in Cyan. I think Axelrod is more likely town for attacking me rather than Fayul. Cyan took the easier route and voted for Fayul, someone notorious for lurking and erratic play (it'll make sense when she's dead). There's nothing the scum like more than a soft target on day one.
His lack of response to Axelrod's post I quoted is telling.
Kenji also makes a valid point about the post he quoted; not exactly hyperbole, but it is a scare tactic and a slippery slope fallacy.
I support that a person so blocked comes forward, seems the most beneficial. The persons role isn't revealed, it doesnt clear anyone persay as it could still be mafia, neutral, or townie; yet i dont really see anyone coming forward with said information.
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Honestly, I don't anyone was RB'd last night and that people are making a huge deal over a bunch of "What if?"'s. It seems more likely to me that either:
1.) The mafia/sk/whatever forgot to send in a kill/missed the deadline/decided not to kill for stragetic reasons.
2.) A doc-protect or KIT.
KIT/Untargettable townies have been coming up a lot in recent games, so that avenue is not as unlikely as, I'm sure, some will paint it to be.
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I supported a rb'd person coming foward as I would in just about any circumstance. It lets the town know about the existance of a role-blocker. In addition, in this case it could incriminate someone (and the potential rb'er could obviously claim later if no one claims to have been blocked). Basically, it does everything good that a rb'er claiming would do, but without outing the rb'er.
I supported a rb'd person coming foward as I would in just about any circumstance. It lets the town know about the existance of a role-blocker. In addition, in this case it could incriminate someone (and the potential rb'er could obviously claim later if no one claims to have been blocked). Basically, it does everything good that a rb'er claiming would do, but without outing the rb'er.
This is the exact problem...why would anyone come out and say they were role blocked. They would be putting themselves in the spotlight(read:lynch-light) for no reason. They could just wait for a RB'er to come out and say they targetted them then say: "Oh I didn't want to come out becuase I didn't want to be lynched, I'm vanilla!" Either way, it's WIFOM to hold anyone that is targetted by a RB'er on a no-kill night as scum, because the mafia could have no-killed or it could have been doc-protected.
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It seems sort of silly to ridicule a company for marketing efforts. Of course they are going to hype upcoming products, every company on the face of the planet does it, and it works, thats why they do it. There isn't really any sense complaining about it. If you don't like the marketing, ignore it.
I don't have any idea what to say to that- it's so ridiculously silly/scummy/strange/insert random adjective here to come in and randomly toss a vote on the player with the highest tally.
Clearly, I find Cyan to be suspicious, but this post by serge makes no sense.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
That statement that I made is not scaremongering. That makes absolutely no sense. Why would I, as scum, want to 'scare' a town RB into not coming forward? Scaremongering is a tactic that mafia use to prevent the town from taking an action that would, typically, directly harm the town. My entire argument is that the RB coming forward would, most likely, greatly benefit the mafia. It's impossible that it could be scaremongering. It is exactly the opposite of that, considering that I am saying the RB shouldn't come forward because it might out 2 town power roles. That's me trying to prevent the potential outing of 2 town power roles.
Furthermore, if we assume that a RB exists, and that he blocked someone on N1, the statistical likelihood that he blocked a relevant town role is higher than that that he blocked the 1 person who would have submitted the mafia kill. Granted, the most likely scenario is that an RB would have blocked another town action, with that action not necessarily being a power role. But we would still be outing 2 town people in order to address the extremely remote possibility that the RB might have blocked a mafia kill. The play is completely unsound, logically.
So, yeah, I'm not really sure how I gained suspicion over a post that was very obviously pro-town, and I really don't see how it got labeled as 'scaremongering'.
This is the exact problem...why would anyone come out and say they were role blocked. They would be putting themselves in the spotlight(read:lynch-light) for no reason. They could just wait for a RB'er to come out and say they targetted them then say: "Oh I didn't want to come out becuase I didn't want to be lynched, I'm vanilla!" Either way, it's WIFOM to hold anyone that is targetted by a RB'er on a no-kill night as scum, because the mafia could have no-killed or it could have been doc-protected.
This makes no sense. A townie would not lie (through omission) and force the rb'er to out himself.
@DYH: To address your earlier statement about Axelrod: For one, casually mentioning a plan that 'might work and might not because you haven't thought it through greatly' strikes me as just being honest about rational about said plan. Fayul promoted her plan, and then provided actual reasons as to why it wouldn't work. Furthermore, Fayul's plan is significantly more likely to be damaging to the town and beneficial to the mafia, whereas the negative aspect of Axel's plan is fairly minor.
That having been said, I still don't like Axel's plan, because A)a scum is most likely not going to come forward and put themself in the spotlight in this situation. Honestly, even a smart townie wouldn't do so. To me, that suggestion(which I simply missed before it was pointed out) seems somewhat suspicious, as though Axelrod is just trying to force some information into the open, but said information being in the open really wouldn't help the town any. It's questionable, especially coming from Axelrod, but it is not nearly as downright scummy as Fayul's play was. As such, my vote will be staying where it is.
And speaking of scaremongering, DYH's statement that I'm just picking on Fayul because she is known for lurking and erratic play IS scaremongering, because he is trying to play on people's emotion to discourage another player from taking an action that is logically sound. I cannot be held responsible for Fayul's playstyle, and a person's playstyle should never be used to try to discourage other people from voting them, especially in this fashion.
I'm really starting to wonder about you this game, DYH. Your play has been thoroughly off. I know that you know how to play as mafia as well as town, so I'm having a little trouble figuring out what is going on, but something isn't sitting right at all.
I find it weird that no one is considering the possibility of two kills being stopped last night (and the DYH rejected it so quickly). This seems to me to be the most likely situation. I mean, when was the last 20 person game on this site that only had one kill per night? This would make the possibility of a roleblocked scum more likely.
Actually, I think that if we assume two killers, it's most likely that they went for the same target and that target was a protected or kill-immune townie, rather than two separate kills were stopped by two separate things. Requires the fewest lucky actions to work.
Also, I agree with Pod two-fold. I would fire n0 as a town RB, and I think it might be a good idea for people to claim if they were roleblocked at some point today.
I don't agree.
As far as firing night 0 as a RB, it's generally been regarded here as a scum move (just as firing night 0 as a claimed vig screams "SK") because you have much more chance of blocking (or killing, as a vig) a townie than a scum. There's generally more town information/protection roles than there are scum performing a kill, too.
Also, I forgot something. I disagree with the notion that the mafia would want to keep the existence of an RB under wraps. It has been my experience that many townspeople play their roles alot more loosely(don't play them as well as they normally would) when the existence of a RB is known. It creates a sense of security that is largely false. It hearkens back to why any major town player will act somewhat more recklessly when they know they're a major town player. They know that, if they're forced to claim, their claim will be believable(not relevant in this situation), and that, as a revealed town role, they are likely to gain doc protection. This creates a false sense of security also, and causes them to act in a manner in which they normally would not. It is bad play, but, it still happens constantly, and I think that the same is valid when the town knows that a RB exists. If you stop to think about it..if you're a watcher/cop/doc/whatever, and you're trying to decide whom you should target one night, and you know a RB exists, it is *always* in the back of your mind that said RB is there, and might make up for an error in judgment on your part. Of course, this thinking makes it more likely that people will commit said error in judgment in the first place, but, typically the thought process doesn't extend that far.
At any rate, I stand by my earlier conviction that the town has nothing to gain and much to lose from the verification of a town RB in any context, for now.
It occurs to me that if a Mafia kill was blocked last Night, the mafia would want to keep that under wraps as much as possible. They might know that it was, indeed, a role-blocked kill, as opposed to something else such as a Doc protect or an immune target.
You could just read my posts, you'd reach these conclusions a bit earlier
To help you out a bit, the next step in this reasoning is that unless the mafia have daytalk (which they probably don't), only the actual mafia killer could know what went wrong with their kill, which makes some reactions even more interesting since the mafia's killer may well have been trying to hint to his/her colleagues what actually happened to the kill. And if it really was a roleblock, Fayul's plan is obviously terrible.
The step after that is that Fayul may have planned for people to reject her plan, so this doesn't help us with her (or DYH, for that matter) one way or the other.
Is it just me, or are we thinking in circles here? I'm seriously reminded of the Princess Bride where they have the battle of wits (where WIFOM comes from). Everyone's trying to like quadruple guess everyone else but no one is coming up with any answers.
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Although this is more a matter of theory, I want to say that I highly disagree with Cyan's assertion that the existence of an RB makes people play more loosely. I think all players are smart enough not to equate the RB and the doc, and can never count on an RB as providing protection for a power role, except in the late game.
As for Mafia wanting to keep the existence of an RB under wraps, I also have to disagree with Cyan there. Ideally, Mafia would want to keep *everything* under wraps, since they have the advantage of information. There are also specific reasons Mafia might want to hide info about an RB, but it's not worth speculating about them until we have more information.
I disagree with that. I think that the answer is that Fayul is scum, for reasons that I've already established.
I'm fairly leery of DYH right now as well, due to his actions thus far, but, I want to give that some more time, to make sure that it's not just an OMGUS feeling on my part(and to be able to prove to everyone else that it's not).
Well, I'll disagree with your disagreement. Outing a RB, especially in a Normal, is good for the mafia. It's just like outing any other power role. This is one piece of information they DON'T have. Once that information is out, it helps them decide who they want to, and can successfully, kill.
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EBWODP: My disagreement was to fadeblue, and I echo Cyan's sentiment about DYH acting differently this game. Also, I don't necessarily agree with Cyan's theories, since I couldn't even understand some of what he was saying.
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The effect of the RB's presence is negligible at this stage of the game, especially when compared to the effect of the doc's presence. Knowing who the RB is doesn't make much difference in who the Mafia can successfully kill.
@Fadeblue: It's not a matter of being smart or not, it is simply how people think. But people absolutely do think that way. It doesn't matter that the existence of an RB, in reality, will not be that likely to cover the potential error of another town role. It is just something that you have in your head when you are one of those roles. It's impossible not to. This is why it is a 'false sense of security'.
Also, it's cliche to say that 'mafia always want to keep as much information under wraps as possible'. That only goes to a certain extent. When the exposing of information will benefit the mafia more than the town(the revealing of town power roles is a good example of this), then the mafia typically is not going to try to prevent that. This is especially true in the case of a RB, because inevitably after the revelation of this role, the town is going to try to assume command of that person's ability, which gives the mafia the benefit of knowing whom is likely to be targeted, making the RB role significantly less useful. The mafia has every reason to want the RB to come out, which is just another reason why it shouldn't happen.
I will confirm my vote for the RB not coming out today, but possibly coming out the next game day, similiar to what DYH has proposed.
I still believe there was a lucky doc protect that saved a N0 kill and that speculation on the presence of a RB could go on for quite sometime with no real resolution. I'm not saying discussion should stop, but I agree with Sutherlands that all this second guessing solves very little until something more suspicious happens
And Unvote: Abandon_Hope as it was just a random vote.
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Let me see if I am hearing you correctly: It would be a good play (or just an acceptable play?) for a town RB to announce himself this morning and say "I targeted X last Night." The theory being that, because there appear to be missing kill/s, X would be more likely to be scum. Is that right?
Because if that's what you are saying (which is what Fayul said and immediately backtracked on) this is just poor logic and poor play.
It would make slightly more sense to encourage someone who was role-blocked last Night (if said person is aware they were role-blocked last Night) to come forward only to say that they were blocked. With that tidbit of information, it might be possible to calculate some odds a little bit better. But I will freely admit I haven't thought that one completely through. It might not do any good either. I don't see where it actively hurts us though, by revealing a role to the Mafia.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
I find that games often have no information to go on in the early game. Therefore, I am providing a perfectly legitimate outlet for information. We can use this information not just for this day or two days, but the reactions to the information (and, indeed, to my proposal in the first place ) will be useful for the entire game.
Oh, and for people wondering why I'm being active and more content-filled than usual: it's because my strength lies in logical analysis, not picking up emotional tells. I am posting more because i've found logic to use, whereas in most games I don't get much in because much of the play is focused upon people's reactions, an area I am less competent at analyzing.
Furthermore, I agree that Fayul was just throwing out ideas for discussion since it was still the very beginning of the game. I'm never opposed to someone trying to generate discussion on Day 1.
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This seems to be the theme to everyone's discussion of my objective. I think you are are looking at it the wrong way. Let's look at it in another fashion:
1. Set of all scenarios in which someone claims a N1 block. (unlikely)
1a. A townie randomly hit a scum. O joyous day, Expected value: +++ Plausibility: Possible
1b. A scum claims the block to cast suspicion on the townie. We likely arrive at a lynch of the target day 1 (though, again, this absolutely should not be automatic). However, day 1 lynches with no information are likely to be townie anyway. We have just cast heavy suspicion onto a mafiaso, for the price of almost nothing (lynching a townie day 1, when most of the time that is what happens anyway, seeing as how day 1 lynches are close to random.) Expected value: Probably a wash, but possibly positive. The town is not likely to be worse off by my analysis not taking place, but it's not likely to benefit much overall, either. Plausibility: The least likely outcome, unless the scum is straight-up stupid.
1c. A townie randomly blocked another townie. The worst possible outcome. We lose two days worth of lynches, however we gain -infinite- amounts of information, and 2 mislynches while only giving the scum opportunity for 2 kills is definitely a winnable situation. Expected value: -. This outcome is detrimental to the town, but only slightly worse than it would have been without the claim never taking place. Plausibility: About as possible as option 1a.
Set 2: Set of all scenarios in which nobody claims a roleblock.
2a. Nobody claims a roleblock. We are at the same place as where we started, but, due to the discussion generated over this piece, we have large amounts more reactions that can be analyzed, which will likely prove to be extremely important for the town. Expected value: +. No significant gains are made, but the important discussion definitely gives the town more to analyze in the future. Possiblity: The most likely outcome by a good margin.
Would someone like to dispute my analysis?
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I think this subject has been beaten to death, in any case. Unless Fayul actually has a reason for her contention there, it should be pretty obvious that a roleblocker, who for whatever reason chose to block last night, shouldn't claim his target.
The issue now is that Fayul needs to defend herself. 1) Explain how she could think what she says she thought, and 2) If she can't, explain what she was trying to accomplish by trying to convince the RB to expose himself.
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Oh, I thought there was like a designated guy who did it every night. Obviously I don't play enough mafia.
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That's how it worked in Elegant Mafia. The GF would make the kill every night he was alive, when he died GF(and thus killing) power would move to the next mafia member in the line of succession.
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I don't believe Fayul's argument is scummy enough to place a vote, I think she's just throwing out various possibilities to advance the game.
As for the RB coming out/staying hidden, assuming there is one AND used the ability N0, I've change slightly on that. I think it could worthwhile in coming out Day 2, after we have a lynch and NK. This gives us some ground to work from in analyzing if the target is scum or not.
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Listen to this man. He is making sense.
Actually I think it's entirely possible Fayul is just tossing around half-formed ideas without malicious intent. It's DYH's rather vigorous defense of same that sticks out more. My feeling is that it is far more likely that a Mafia would leap to the defense of a weird townie strategy then that they would propose such a strategy themselves. And that a townie would be more cautious about supporting something so questionable (them not knowing the alignment of the person proposing it, of course)
So, in that regard:
Vote: Disrupt_Your_Hymn
I don't like Fayul's plan, nor do I like DYH's defense of it. While later information may make it a reasonable play, the manner in which he stepped in to support it does not sit well with me.
They're on my watch list, but I don't think it's enough yet for me to vote. I'd still like to see more posts from other people first so I can get a better picture of the whole group.
EWP: Axelrod makes sense there, and it echoes my feelings about DYH's stepping in. That's likely where my vote will be, but like I said, I'm waiting for a bit more discussion.
That is the last post I made regarding the "plan". This is your response:
No mention of the fact that I'm supporting a variation of what Fayul suggested (delayed reveal). No rebuttal to my comments, no counter-points to argue, just a psychological evaluation of how a mafiaso and a townie would play.
Hmm.
So, Axel, I ask you- what exactly am I supposed to say in my defense? You've basically profiled my maneuver as a scum play, and others' reaction (including your own) as a townie play. That I disagree?
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Also, I agree with Pod two-fold. I would fire n0 as a town RB, and I think it might be a good idea for people to claim if they were roleblocked at some point today.
Note that there's also somewhat of a chance that there -was- an SK, and, therefore, two kills were blocked, making situation 1a infinitely more likely to happen.
The only reason I propose this plan is because it is day 1. On a killeless daty 1, the town has no information to go on. An informed lynch is superior to an uninformed lynch. On day 2, we would already have a lot of information to go on, making this less necessary.
That's absolutely wonderful what you think. Since when were your opinions so "obviously" correct?
I'm a profiler. Sue me.
Also, what you are saying now does smell a bit like back-tracking. Your emphasis on the (hypothetical) RB coming out "later" as opposed to "now" is simply not as great of a distinction as you are making it out to be.
Now you are saying he should come out later "if he deems it prudent" and you agree that his coming out now is "essentially useless" and you even appear to suggest that it's something that he could/should hold for when/if he himself comes under scrutiny, as a means of defending himself.
Indeed that might be a good claim for a person under duress (especially if not countered by anyone else). But the entire point of the original suggestion that the RB come out, was the theory that it said something about the RB's target. And that theory is unaffected regardless of whether the person comes out now or later, or is under "scrutiny" themselves or claiming under no pressure whatsoever.
Sgdre: I have considered the possibility of 2 missing kills. The issuse there is where in the opening post
This could be reading more into things then we should, but the "one of you" suggests one missing/blocked kill.
It occurs to me that if a Mafia kill was blocked last Night, the mafia would want to keep that under wraps as much as possible. They might know that it was, indeed, a role-blocked kill, as opposed to something else such as a Doc protect or an immune target. Which could put some people's responses into a different light.
And also brings me back to whether anyone want to fess up to knowing that they were Role-blocked (or a RB attempt was made) last night.
See, I look at both sides.
But really...
I've thought of the idea that the mafia is trying to cover up the RB, but 1) I find it much more likely that a doc protected (even if fayul ignores general actions of docs protecting likely targets) and 2) Only one of the mafia would know.
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@Cyan, did you see this one above? ('here's a plan I haven't thought through, it may or may not work')
Isn't this pretty much what Axelrod just did? You've posted since then, so why not address that about his post?
@Axel, Pod, Sgdre: Why would you support the blocked player coming forward? I am very curious to hear the rationale behind this.
To pod, especially, who thinks it will clear a non-SK person. There was no SK kill last night, in fact there were no kills. How does that work? Why would a blocked person come forward on their own? Since you state that pms generally go to anyone, regardless of having a role, haven't you just opened the door for a scum to 'clear' himself as a vanilla townie who got blocked?
I'd like sgdre to explain his rationale first.
PPE: Nitpick, it's 1 in 19, not 1 in 20. RB wouldn't target himself.
PPE2: I've maintained "later" in every post I've made regarding this "plan". I believe you've quoted about two posts broken up there. I think you're lacking in showing proper context.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
I haven't back-tracked a thing, Axel.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
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Each of those quotes is from a different post. You only said "later" in one of them (which, admittendly, was the first one). My point is that "later" vs. "now" is just not that big a distinction.
Also: I have thought a bit more about having "anyone who knows they were RB last Night come forward" and I think it is a reasonable next step. But if I explain exactly what I'm looking for with that, it could defeat the whole purpose of having them say.
Secondly, for the record, I'm actually most interested in Cyan. I think Axelrod is more likely town for attacking me rather than Fayul. Cyan took the easier route and voted for Fayul, someone notorious for lurking and erratic play (it'll make sense when she's dead). There's nothing the scum like more than a soft target on day one.
His lack of response to Axelrod's post I quoted is telling.
Kenji also makes a valid point about the post he quoted; not exactly hyperbole, but it is a scare tactic and a slippery slope fallacy.
Vote: Cyan
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
1.) The mafia/sk/whatever forgot to send in a kill/missed the deadline/decided not to kill for stragetic reasons.
2.) A doc-protect or KIT.
KIT/Untargettable townies have been coming up a lot in recent games, so that avenue is not as unlikely as, I'm sure, some will paint it to be.
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This is the exact problem...why would anyone come out and say they were role blocked. They would be putting themselves in the spotlight(read:lynch-light) for no reason. They could just wait for a RB'er to come out and say they targetted them then say: "Oh I didn't want to come out becuase I didn't want to be lynched, I'm vanilla!" Either way, it's WIFOM to hold anyone that is targetted by a RB'er on a no-kill night as scum, because the mafia could have no-killed or it could have been doc-protected.
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Abandon Hope - 1 (Vampyr)
Sutherlands - 1 (Wrath of DoG)
Cyan - 3 (Pod, WellofLostGnomes, Disrupt_Your_Hymn)
Disrupt_Your_Hymn - 1 (diggy)
Axelrod - 1 (MD)
Kenji - 1 (Cyan)
sgdre - 1 (serge)
serge -1 (sgdre)
Fayul - 2 (Sutherlands, StormBlind)
Pod - 1 (creampuffeater)
Disrupt_Your_Hymn - 1 (Axelrod)
11 votes required to lynch. If I made a mistake, feel free to point it out, and I'll work on getting it corrected.
EDIT: Thank you, Kenji. This is why I always use that disclaimer. Vote counts are always a headache, particularly Day 1 with the intial random voting.
vote Cyan
Why? Because I am just passing through right now.
Clearly, I find Cyan to be suspicious, but this post by serge makes no sense.
FOS: serge
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Uh oh.
Furthermore, if we assume that a RB exists, and that he blocked someone on N1, the statistical likelihood that he blocked a relevant town role is higher than that that he blocked the 1 person who would have submitted the mafia kill. Granted, the most likely scenario is that an RB would have blocked another town action, with that action not necessarily being a power role. But we would still be outing 2 town people in order to address the extremely remote possibility that the RB might have blocked a mafia kill. The play is completely unsound, logically.
So, yeah, I'm not really sure how I gained suspicion over a post that was very obviously pro-town, and I really don't see how it got labeled as 'scaremongering'.
This makes no sense. A townie would not lie (through omission) and force the rb'er to out himself.
unvote VOTE WoLG
That having been said, I still don't like Axel's plan, because A)a scum is most likely not going to come forward and put themself in the spotlight in this situation. Honestly, even a smart townie wouldn't do so. To me, that suggestion(which I simply missed before it was pointed out) seems somewhat suspicious, as though Axelrod is just trying to force some information into the open, but said information being in the open really wouldn't help the town any. It's questionable, especially coming from Axelrod, but it is not nearly as downright scummy as Fayul's play was. As such, my vote will be staying where it is.
And speaking of scaremongering, DYH's statement that I'm just picking on Fayul because she is known for lurking and erratic play IS scaremongering, because he is trying to play on people's emotion to discourage another player from taking an action that is logically sound. I cannot be held responsible for Fayul's playstyle, and a person's playstyle should never be used to try to discourage other people from voting them, especially in this fashion.
I'm really starting to wonder about you this game, DYH. Your play has been thoroughly off. I know that you know how to play as mafia as well as town, so I'm having a little trouble figuring out what is going on, but something isn't sitting right at all.
Actually, I think that if we assume two killers, it's most likely that they went for the same target and that target was a protected or kill-immune townie, rather than two separate kills were stopped by two separate things. Requires the fewest lucky actions to work.
I don't agree.
As far as firing night 0 as a RB, it's generally been regarded here as a scum move (just as firing night 0 as a claimed vig screams "SK") because you have much more chance of blocking (or killing, as a vig) a townie than a scum. There's generally more town information/protection roles than there are scum performing a kill, too.
At any rate, I stand by my earlier conviction that the town has nothing to gain and much to lose from the verification of a town RB in any context, for now.
You could just read my posts, you'd reach these conclusions a bit earlier
To help you out a bit, the next step in this reasoning is that unless the mafia have daytalk (which they probably don't), only the actual mafia killer could know what went wrong with their kill, which makes some reactions even more interesting since the mafia's killer may well have been trying to hint to his/her colleagues what actually happened to the kill. And if it really was a roleblock, Fayul's plan is obviously terrible.
The step after that is that Fayul may have planned for people to reject her plan, so this doesn't help us with her (or DYH, for that matter) one way or the other.
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
As for Mafia wanting to keep the existence of an RB under wraps, I also have to disagree with Cyan there. Ideally, Mafia would want to keep *everything* under wraps, since they have the advantage of information. There are also specific reasons Mafia might want to hide info about an RB, but it's not worth speculating about them until we have more information.
I'm fairly leery of DYH right now as well, due to his actions thus far, but, I want to give that some more time, to make sure that it's not just an OMGUS feeling on my part(and to be able to prove to everyone else that it's not).
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
America == Velociraptor
Play IRC mafia. (/join #mafia)
Also, it's cliche to say that 'mafia always want to keep as much information under wraps as possible'. That only goes to a certain extent. When the exposing of information will benefit the mafia more than the town(the revealing of town power roles is a good example of this), then the mafia typically is not going to try to prevent that. This is especially true in the case of a RB, because inevitably after the revelation of this role, the town is going to try to assume command of that person's ability, which gives the mafia the benefit of knowing whom is likely to be targeted, making the RB role significantly less useful. The mafia has every reason to want the RB to come out, which is just another reason why it shouldn't happen.
I still believe there was a lucky doc protect that saved a N0 kill and that speculation on the presence of a RB could go on for quite sometime with no real resolution. I'm not saying discussion should stop, but I agree with Sutherlands that all this second guessing solves very little until something more suspicious happens
And Unvote: Abandon_Hope as it was just a random vote.
PM me if you have any to trade or sell.
Games finished:17
Games ongoing:1
Town/Mafia/Other - 13/2/2
Won/Lost/replaced/modkilled- 4/13/3/1
NK'ed(vig'ed)/Lynched/Endgamed(Survived) - 7(2)/5/5(1)
Matrix Mafia Town MVP
Medieval Mafia Mafia MVP
Ye have enemies? Good, good - it means ye've stood up for something, sometime in thy life. - Elminster of Shadowdale