Not to mention that, if you're scum, the mafia now know ALL the abilities of ALL the town... and then you get to play super-hero and dole out the cops you think are appropriate.
Still ignoring the part where I can corroborate my story?
Sutherlands has a point. The AzPlanTM basically turns the game vanilla as long as Az has all the hats. That definitely helps out the mafia.
Giving the entire town their superpowers for the rest of the game definitely
helps the town. We're only talking one night here, out of seven or eight or nine.
This is our best chance to get our hats to who they really belong to, without the mafia pinpointing our power roles from folks picking up hats piecemeal.
Not what I meant. I meant that if you think I'm scum, you'd probably also wind up believing that the person who's confirming that I can confirm someone is scum who's helping me with my bogus claim.
Or someone who thinks you are town? Who knows, maybe bat decided to be a bastard. Too many (small) risks like this one. They accumulate into a big one, especially because we surely haven't thoguht of them all.
The confirmable townie is anonymous. That means they're in no danger.
I said DOC. You're gonna have to take the doc's hat. Assuming that there's a doc hat that you can use (we don't know for sure). Either you will have the doc hat - or the doc will be outed because he has to REFUSE TO GIVE IT UP. This will OUT HIM.
Plus, the hat likely has an obvious name (i.e. Surgeon Mask, Nurse Cap, WHATEVER) preventing it from being passed around subtly.
Gah, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!!! /mugatu
Why doesn't everyone see that this is a flawed plan? I'll try to say it plainly. First, I don't think Az is scum because of this necessarily; I've already said that. However, think to the beginning of his proposal.
People were worried because *shock and awe* what if people didn't give up all of their hats? How would we know?
"No, no," Az reassured us, "Charm will knock them all off!"
"Ah, genius!" cried the lemming mob.
And then it is discovered that Mr. Charm has a cap to his hat knocking off. But then, even more revolutionary is the realization that he can probably only knock off hats IF THEY ARE WEARING THE HAT at the time.
So, he really can't do anything to force mafia or other secretive, non-hat-giving-up people from truly emptying their inventory.
Does the mafia lose all of their abilities, as Azrael claims? No, most likely not.
Is this plan not thorough or complete? Yes.
Question to Azrael...this plan is not good if we you do not acquire all of the hats and inventory? Correct.
Question2 to Az...don't you see why it is very likely that several hats will not be relinquished to you, and you have no surefire way of obtaining them all?
On top of all of this you have said that it would take a while for this to be confirmed as well, making even more of a risk with you controlling all hats.
And what if somehow you are killed during the night (assuming you aren't scum)? The hats scramble all about and the mafia snatch up many of them, and you are unable to get us the information you were so keen on compiling. Leaving us in a more lopsided and worse position than this morning.
-Alpha
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Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
I've even offered to help prove facets of my story, and you've ignored that offer. Why? Why aren't you interested in seeing me offer proof that I'm correct, Suth? It seems to me that you're reaching for any possible method of discrediting the plan.
Well, you've offered to give the mechanics of how you can prove someone, so go ahead. The point is, if it doesn't prove it to someone other than you and him, it's worthless. I'm not reaching for any possible way to discredit it because i've already shown it to be a bad plan, even if you're telling the truth.
Not making sense to you doesn't equate to no benefit. It means they don't make sense to you yet. What needs to be clarified?
No, it means they're wrong. But anyway, in this post, you gave 6 benefits to the plan. Disregarding, for a second, the fact that most of those benefits actually aren't, please tell me, in detail, how you plan to accomplish those points, while hurting the mafia.
Still ignoring the part where I can corroborate my story?
Interesting that you would make two posts right in a row, (within 6 minutes of each other, no less) and in the first one say "You're ignoring X" and in the second one say "You're still ignoring X."
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Hey, you! Yeah, you behind the computer screen! You're unconstitutional.
I'm not sure I want to do that (but i WILL if you force me). Is there any reason you won't explain what it is? At this point anyone can take it..
I don't see any reason to keep it hidden, so unless Az or DYH have glaring objections, I'll spill what the beret does.
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you still didn't answer my question tilde: do you have a misetings account?
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Or someone who thinks you are town? Who knows, maybe bat decided to be a bastard. Too many (small) risks like this one. They accumulate into a big one, especially because we surely haven't thoguht of them all.
Since you don't know the mechanics that are involved here, I'm just going to ignore this.
Quote from Orange Flower »
Whopie Dingle Doo. Ours are likely much more important.
Our own are only working at half-strength. Do you want to keep them at half-strength for the rest of the game?
Quote from Orange Flower »
I said DOC. You're gonna have to take the doc's hat. Assuming that there's a doc hat that you can use (we don't know for sure). Either you will have the doc hat - or the doc will be outed because he has to REFUSE TO GIVE IT UP. This will OUT HIM.
.....
Except that doc doesn't have to refuse to give up the hat. They just give up the hat. Especially considering the true doc probably doesn't have the true doc hat yet, because all our hats are mixed up. Assuming that there even IS a doc hat.
Quote from Orange Flower »
Plus, the hat likely has an obvious name (i.e. Surgeon Mask, Nurse Cap, WHATEVER) preventing it from being passed around subtly.
None of the hats have been obvious. It's bad design. There's better ways to limit the doc. And it's almost a certainty that the doc hat doesn't simply make someone a doc.
Does the mafia lose all of their abilities, as Azrael claims? No, most likely not.
Is this plan not thorough or complete? Yes.
They lose all their abilities for tonight, still, because if they put on any they've kept back in reserve, Charm still nails them. Investigative roles can still nail them. We don't need 100% of the hats.
Quote from Alpha »
Question to Azrael...this plan is not good if we you do not acquire all of the hats and inventory? Correct.
Question2 to Az...don't you see why it is very likely that several hats will not be relinquished to you, and you have no surefire way of obtaining them all?
The plan is good so long as we gain information about who likely townies are, who likely mafia are, we can keep hats away from the mafia, and link up townies with their true roles.
We don't need 100% exposure. Simply the more, the merrier.
Quote from Alpha »
On top of all of this you have said that it would take a while for this to be confirmed as well, making even more of a risk with you controlling all hats.
And what if somehow you are killed during the night (assuming you aren't scum)? The hats scramble all about and the mafia snatch up many of them, and you are unable to get us the information you were so keen on compiling. Leaving us in a more lopsided and worse position than this morning.
First off, not necessarily.
Secondly, not a worry.
Thirdly, the mafia can't snatch up hats upon my death without falling into a counter-claiming quagmire. The town simply mandates that no one can pick up hats without a good explanation, or unless the hat fits their true nature.
Wouldn't leave us in a worse position at all, either. The town still gets to grab all their hats. We wouldn't gain the one-sided mass claim knowledge, but we're not any worse off. But again, that's not going to be a problem.
Well, you've offered to give the mechanics of how you can prove someone, so go ahead. The point is, if it doesn't prove it to someone other than you and him, it's worthless. I'm not reaching for any possible way to discredit it because i've already shown it to be a bad plan, even if you're telling the truth.
It's confirmable via hat-passing.
Quote from Suth »
No, it means they're wrong. But anyway, in this post, you gave 6 benefits to the plan. Disregarding, for a second, the fact that most of those benefits actually aren't, please tell me, in detail, how you plan to accomplish those points, while hurting the mafia.
...You're familiar with the concept of mass-claiming? You're familiar with the concept of mass-claims helping the town pinpoint or narrow down scum candidates, and ruling out townies?
What about this model needs to be explained further?
Az: He mentioned the BK crown when the crown was first dropped, it got me wondering. Coincidentally, it BK crown was the first thing I thought of when it was dropped.
since it's not really going to be that big a deal, I'll tell: the player who wears the beret cannot vote. So unless you've got a real good reason to pick that up, I wouldn't.
If you question how I know this, the answers are already in the thread. I can refer back to them if needed.
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Az: He mentioned the BK crown when the crown was first dropped, it got me wondering. Coincidentally, it BK crown was the first thing I thought of when it was dropped.
However, salvation has two members that go by the name of Tilde. This Tilde is evidently not the MT Tilde. Unless he re-regged and just lied. Which I doubt.
After a bit of cross-referencing, we don't have anything definitive to prove either MTGS tilde is the MT Tilde, but I'll trust him, since there no real point pursuing it further.
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The MT Tilde actually used to play mafia here, and admitted to his identity, actually. He also said he considered himself more of a MTGSer than a MTer, IIRC. *shrug* Not relevant.
Here is the course of action I think we should take (upgraded from Azrael's):
1) Azrael is confirmable.
2) We list our true hats.
3) We give all hats to Azrael. Azrael now has an idea of who is town: those with starting hats or true hats that wouldn't make sense for a mafia to have.
4) Azrael lists all powerful abilities on the hats. The town votes democratically on how these abilities should be used. (Protection goes to Az, probably)
5) Azrael redistributes the hats, each to its true owner. The town is now super-powered; so is the mafia, but their abilities are being controlled by the town democratically.
Possible holes:
1) Azrael is lying. I doubt this, because its a huge risk to take as a mafia and it has innumerable chances to backfire.
2) Scum claiming true hats that are not their real true hat. This either draws suspicion, since said hat does not exist, or will conflict with a townie resulting in a 1 for 1 trade.
3) Scum not giving away all their hats. If a townie's true hat is missing, we can force everyone to say "drop said hat" and we should get it. If it's a hat that the town doesn't know exists, we can't do much about it (ALTHOUGH we could create a list of hats and require everyone to drop every hat on the list.)
Even so, we are gaining control of every hat we know about, which is about all you can ask for.
I really don't see why this isn't the way to go. The town can completely dominate the game from this vantage point with very little risk.
Azrael: Did you say you can confirm someone? If so, why don't we confirm them now and give all the hats to him?
Each player simply takes the hat which corresponds to their nature, and says absolutely nothing about what that nature is. It stays secret. All the mafia are going to know is that a gazillion townies just got hooked up with their superpowers. They won't have the chance to figure out who has what.
My problem with this plan remains the same. I just don't see how we're going to be able to correctly identify which hats belong to scum and which belong to town. I'd be really surprised if Bateleur made it easy for us to do so based simply on a mass claim-type maneuver like you're suggesting.
You make it sound like we're going to hook up every single townie with their correct hat, and also make sure to not give the mafia any of theirs. I just don't see this working out nearly as perfectly as suggested.
I think that people are just being chicken, frankly. Sometimes, a good plan comes your way and you just have to run with it. I really don't see any catastrophic results here, and any scummy action as a result of this plan will be woefully apparent.
Have you ever seen Azrael propose a bad plan? Think about that for awhile. This isn't Puzzle that we're talking about.
There's a first time for everything, anyone can propose a plan and later find out it was shortsighted, even Azrael.
He did, after all, mention that there were some things he didn't take into account originally, not that it changed his mind about the plan, but there you have it.
I learn the abilities granted by every hat in the game, AND I learn where each of those abilities was located at the start of the game. Then I get to share that info.
That does a number things.
One, it allows us to immediately clear a number of players who possess hats that the scum would not be likely to start with.
Two, it helps narrows the suspect range to folks who had hats that the scum would be likely to start with.
I'm not so sure that hats necessarily will be tied so much to alignment. I think it could even lead to mis-lynches. Without black and white views of good vs. evil, a town-aligned player may have a hat that does something typically thought to be "scummy."
Has anyone thought that maybe all the mafia have to do is control all the hats to win?
It is certainly possible...
-Alpha
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Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
Azrael: Did you say you can confirm someone? If so, why don't we confirm them now and give all the hats to him?
*scratches head*
Ifwe could give that person a way of dodging kills, that could probably work. A hat that provides NK immunity, for instance. I had devised a different method of how I could manage to nullify the mafia's kills, but if we have another option available that could work also.
My problem with this plan remains the same. I just don't see how we're going to be able to correctly identify which hats belong to scum and which belong to town. I'd be really surprised if Bateleur made it easy for us to do so based simply on a mass claim-type maneuver like you're suggesting.
You make it sound like we're going to hook up every single townie with their correct hat, and also make sure to not give the mafia any of theirs. I just don't see this working out nearly as perfectly as suggested.
It won't be perfect, and it won't win the game for us, but it's going to get us off to a good start.
Bat has created a lot of hats that are balanced on mafia members in their natural form. We know that for sure.
But I also have information that suggests that the superpowers on at least some hats gives a very strong indication of that players' alignment, in certain cases. There's bound to be a few more like that.
Also, while we're not going to outright pin down any scum through their starting hats, we may get a few good leads out of it.
Triple Post Tech: Aurora's idea about democratically controlling ability usage is a very, very good idea.
Obviously we won't want to use it to control the doctor, or alignment cops, but there are a lot of support roles where we could use that tactic to excellent effect.
But I also have information that suggests that the superpowers on at least some hats gives a very strong indication of that players' alignment, in certain cases. There's bound to be a few more like that.
Alright. I'm still a bit wary of putting all of our hats in the hands of one player, but I don't see any glaring issues with the plan at the present. I'm willing to go along with it for the time being. I'll drop my hat for you to pick up if the rest of the town agrees to it.
I also like Aurora's suggestions. I think acting in a controlled fashion like he suggested would be wise.
One last thing. I want to hear CM and DYH state how they feel about the "AzPlan". I've seen them make a decent amount of posts, but I can't recall any point where they actually had an opinion on the matter, which strikes me as strange, since this has been the huge topic of discussion.
If we could give that person a way of dodging kills, that could probably work. A hat that provides NK immunity, for instance. I had devised a different method of how I could manage to nullify the mafia's kills, but if we have another option available that could work also.
Well, if you can confirm them right now, we can just start the process and by the end of the day the doctor should have his True Hat.
You really seem to be grasping at straws...I don't get it.
I don't think it's really grasping at straws to be cautious about such a potentially detrimental plan. I want to make clear here that I'm fine with a plan such as this if there's a low probability of it losing the game for us. I've been burned before, and I don't think it should be considered a bad thing for me to understand the implications of something so large, and to assuage any potential problems.
Probably the biggest problem for me is just accepting the plan without really thinking it through to conclusion just b/c Azrael suggested it. No one is infallible, and while Az is a ridiculously good analyst and player, who knows what could happen.
I'd rather this game not be remembered for how foolish of a mistake the town made by releasing all of their abilities the first night and losing in a bloodbath (not that I'm saying it will happen, just why caution is important)
That all being said, I feel a bit better about the plan after some of Azrael's answers. I'll have to read into everything a bit more in depth to be sure. In particular, Aurorasparrow's plan seems to help some of the difficulties.
-Alpha
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Quote from TheFooFish »
Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
Well, if you can confirm them right now, we can just start the process and by the end of the day the doctor should have his True Hat.
*shakes head*
Bateleur's rules state that we only learn the abilities that a hat has at the end of a day.
The doc won't be able to cover either me or the cleared townie tonight. There's a few good ways around that, but none that involve using doc protection.
Hmm. I just thought of an alternate way to pull this off.
If we want, we could try passing off all the hats to the confirmed townie today. I could take care of the rest.
There's a couple different disadvantages to trying it this way, and it will put the confirmed townie at a slightly higher risk, but it's another way that this could work.
There's a few advantages, too, come to think of it.
Yeah, the only downside is that the townie's going to need doc consideration from now on.
Yeah, the only downside is that the townie's going to need doc consideration from now on.
Based on your plan, nobody besides the person who has the hats and the doc themselves should know who the doctor is anyway. As long as the doc hat is indistinguishable (as in, not titled "Doctor's Hat" or something similar), then it should work out.
*thinks again* Oh yeah. There was that. Hunh. Kinda hard to say which is better.
I guess I still prefer doing it myself. If for some strange reason it things don't work out for me tonight, there's someone else who can run the exact same alternate plan that I would have tried, tomorrow, by using the alternate plan where the confirmed townie gets all the hats.
I weighed the options again, and I think our best shot is probably to give all the hats to the confirmed townie, after all.
Okay. Even if we adopt this plan, there are two drawbacks:
1) We lose almost every ability given to him. Assuming we probably will keep the best, which, based strictly on "best normal role", is a cop, we're losing whatever else is out there. Which could be negligible, considering the value gained. Who knows.
2) If that player doesn't survive the night, we lose all information gained (because it can't be carried on). So of course we need a doctor out, which runs the risk of losing him (although he can be replaced by picking the hat up, I suppose). Really, if this one fails, we will be severely harmed.
The only way I can see this working is if there is a player who has some kind of "untargetability" hat, which would make for a powerful effect.
Hmm. Now that I think about it, a mass claim may be best. Even if there isn't an "untargetability" hat, we'll still learn what 3/4 of the hats do truthfully, which means we can optimize their use tonight. And if we can make sure nobody picks up a hat on pain of death without the town's say-so, then we could make sure we always maximize effect. Just think, cops who can't be killed because we're always replacing the docs!
It all boils down to superpowers, really. But I suppose I can deal with a mass-claim.
Okay. Even if we adopt this plan, there are two drawbacks:
1) We lose almost every ability given to him. Assuming we probably will keep the best, which, based strictly on "best normal role", is a cop, we're losing whatever else is out there. Which could be negligible, considering the value gained. Who knows.
When a player dies, their hats are left on the floor. So the roles are still going to be around to be picked up by their true owners tomorrow morning. We just won't get the advantage in information, and we won't be able to stop the scum from powering up, too.
But I'm pretty sure this is going to work out alright one way or another even if the mafia have a RBer up their sleeves.
Quote from Xyre »
2) If that player doesn't survive the night, we lose all information gained (because it can't be carried on). So of course we need a doctor out, which runs the risk of losing him (although he can be replaced by picking the hat up, I suppose). Really, if this one fails, we will be severely harmed.
I think the doc hat goes into the ring with all the others. We don't expose them. Even if the doc hat normally functions as a bodyguard or something, we want to keep that power role secret from the scum.
Quote from Xyre »
The only way I can see this working is if there is a player who has some kind of "untargetability" hat, which would make for a powerful effect.
Wouldn't hurt, but I've got this planned out so that the plan ought to work even without anything like that.
Az's plan does definitely have significant upside, if we can execute properly. I'm not entirely convinced that we can.
If I'm reading the timetable correctly, it looks like this:
Night 0: Az confirms another townie (if I'm reading this correctly)
Day 1: We all give hats to Az (there are some exceptions here, will discuss after)
Night 1: Az records all abilities and self-protects
Day 2: Reveals confirmed townie and gives all hats to him
Night 2: Confirmed townie verifies all abilities and self-protects
Day 3: We have controlled distribution of relevant roles.
Night 3: Ownage (hopefully)
(The exception I noted in day 1 includes the beret any the hat I'm currently wearing, which is similarly undroppable except via a CM boff [I'm assuming]. The verification of these hats [and any others of similar nature] will have to be public)
This timetable makes me pretty antsy. We'll basically be playing mountainous for the first three days (I guess we have night 0 results to work with). This obviously benefits the scum much more than the town, since they have their kill and we're pretty much handicapped. Also means that if this all goes to plan, Az is very likely dead night 2 when he passes all the stuff.
We don't actually gain access to our powers this way until night 3, not to mention the fact that a large portion of the information we're working so hard to conceal will already be available to the scum, plus the fact that townies will have to claim flavor in order to receive their appropriate hats
If there's any easily flavor to identify it negates most of the value achieved from finally pairing up those roles.
I think the main question is whether the potential gains of this plan (which are notable) outweigh the significant problems in its execution, particularly the length of time which it seems to take to actually fully execute everything, in which the town will be deprived of even partial use of its abilities. It may very well be, as the normal ability my hat has is quite weak, possibly even detrimental, and the superpower is quite strong, but then again I have one of the "stuck" hats, so I don't know if this is indicative of the hat situation in general or uniquely mine.
The main thing I'm worried about is how long this is going to take, and how vulnerable we're going to be in the meantime. Mountainous isn't the end of the world, but it does put the town at a significant disadvantage. If we're playing against stupid scum, I think we'll be fine, but if we're playing against smart scum, it could be really rough to effectively lose 2 days of even partial information (I guess this assumes that some of the hats are actually informational roles).
That was a lot of typing to say that I'm iffy about the merits/disadvantages of this plan, but that's where I am.
MTGS stats (won/played)
As scum - 3/5
As town - 5/7
As neutral - none
(I really have been scum a lot)
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Az's plan does definitely have significant upside, if we can execute properly. I'm not entirely convinced that we can.
If I'm reading the timetable correctly, it looks like this:
Night 0: Az confirms another townie (if I'm reading this correctly)
Day 1: We all give hats to Az (there are some exceptions here, will discuss after)
Night 1: Az records all abilities and self-protects
Day 2: Reveals confirmed townie and gives all hats to him
Night 2: Confirmed townie verifies all abilities and self-protects
Day 3: We have controlled distribution of relevant roles.
Night 3: Ownage (hopefully)
Actually, the plan ought to work much faster than that.
The current timetable runs more like this:
Day 1: We give all hats to confirmed townie. (Minus one or two temporary exceptions I'll explain if we go ahead with the plan).
Night 1: Confirmed townie records all abilities. Certain key players do X during the night.
Day 2: Confirmed townie reveals lists of abilities. We control distribution throughout the town. Remaining items are given to the original confirmed townie, or subsequent confirmed townies, as needed.
Remainder of the Game: Ownage (hopefully).
*thinks again* Oh yeah. There was that. Hunh. Kinda hard to say which is better.
I guess I still prefer doing it myself. If for some strange reason it things don't work out for me tonight, there's someone else who can run the exact same alternate plan that I would have tried, tomorrow, by using the alternate plan where the confirmed townie gets all the hats.
Wait, so you're saying that you can confirm a townie AND you can talk to another person? What are you, a jester?
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I am just not convinced that this plan is smart. I don't like the idea of handing over all or most of the roles and abilities to one player. Seriously, this plan is being based around one persons idea, and he isn't even confirmed. I don't like this stalling and such, and I certinely don't want to risk handing the game to scum on a silly day one gambit.
So far, all the scenarios are hypothetical. They are all best-case scenarios. I don't trust that. We cannot expect the Mafia to just fall over and die to a design glitch. And I highly doubt that Bat designed that kind of glitch in what he calls a 'thinking' game. Bat is fairly intelligent, so I don't think he would allow for a fairly obvious glitch in game.
Not only that, but after re-reading my PM, I noticed the lack of WC. There is nothing telling me that all the Mafia must die. I'm beginning to think that the scum WC is to control all the hats, or a majority of the hats. I also think that Charm's ability slightly confirms this. The ability to knock off and veritably steal hats from other players is a powerful one. I believe this power may come from the hat itself.
All in all, I think this 'plan' is nothing more than a scummy ruse just to have a day 1 win. I am perfectly fine with relying on plan B, which is a more common mafia plan: Vote: Azrael.
I see it as two options: go with the plan and seriously cripple the town, or start lynching dummies and see where it gets us. The town has won many games before with this classic strategy, so why abandon it now?
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Games played:3, 1 ongoing Times Town: 1, with 1 win Times Scum: 1, with 1 loss
Not only that, but after re-reading my PM, I noticed the lack of WC. There is nothing telling me that all the Mafia must die. I'm beginning to think that the scum WC is to control all the hats, or a majority of the hats. I also think that Charm's ability slightly confirms this. The ability to knock off and veritably steal hats from other players is a powerful one. I believe this power may come from the hat itself.
I don't see where the lack of a stated win condition means that the scum win by controlling all the hats. That seems like quite a leap in logic. Besides, even if that is the case, that still doesn't solve the problem of how the town wins.
I highly doubt the scum will win simply by controlling a majority of the hats. That would be way too easy of a win condition to achieve.
All I'm saying is that there is a possibility of the scum needing the hats to win. Even if they don't, it's still a major risk putting the hats in the hands of one person. I also believe that it is a major setback for the town. Besides, what is the town going to do today, push for a nolynch? This just reeks of a scum gambit to win over the town, and I'm not buying. I'll stick to the conventional ways to win game, thank you very much.
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Games played:3, 1 ongoing Times Town: 1, with 1 win Times Scum: 1, with 1 loss
I am just not convinced that this plan is smart. I don't like the idea of handing over all or most of the roles and abilities to one player. Seriously, this plan is being based around one persons idea, and he isn't even confirmed.
One person came up with it, at least six or seven have since agreed with it.
Quote from BigTime »
I don't like this stalling and such, and I certinely don't want to risk handing the game to scum on a silly day one gambit.
Can you explain how you believe this plan could hand the game to the scum?
Quote from BigTime »
So far, all the scenarios are hypothetical. They are all best-case scenarios. I don't trust that. We cannot expect the Mafia to just fall over and die to a design glitch. And I highly doubt that Bat designed that kind of glitch in what he calls a 'thinking' game. Bat is fairly intelligent, so I don't think he would allow for a fairly obvious glitch in game.
*shakes head* It's not a design glitch, precisely. They won't fall over and die simply because of this gambit, Bateleur's setup isn't going to be broken completely by any mass claim tactic. But it definitely makes it an uphill battle for them. This gives us a tremendous edge.
Quote from Bateleur »
All in all, I think this 'plan' is nothing more than a scummy ruse just to have a day 1 win.
If Bateleur had designed a game that could be broken through a day one win, then I think THAT would be a serious design glitch.
This can't possibly be the case, and even if it is, I've repeatedly stated that we can pull this off using someone whose alignment can be confirmed.
EBWODP: I also don't like how Az still claims to have a confirmed townie. This to me means one of two things: he either started with some sort of investigation hat, or he is passing off a scumbuddy as confirmed town. How else would he have confirmation?
@Azrael: What hat were you wearing to begin with?
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All I'm saying is that there is a possibility of the scum needing the hats to win. Even if they don't, it's still a major risk putting the hats in the hands of one person. I also believe that it is a major setback for the town. Besides, what is the town going to do today, push for a nolynch? This just reeks of a scum gambit to win over the town, and I'm not buying. I'll stick to the conventional ways to win game, thank you very much.
We're not abandoning the conventional approach. We still do behavioral analysis. We still lynch today. We never, ever stop playing the conventional game, no matter what other strategies we devise to supplement it.
Also, the assertion that there is a major risk in putting the hats in the hands of one person needs to be backed up. If that person is cleared, that risk doesn't exist. If the scum don't have the preposterous grab all hats win condition, the risk doesn't exist.
Even if the scum DO have a grab all hats win condition, they shouldn't have any method of grabbing all the hats tonight simply due to this plan. Bateleur has stated that the hats fall off upon death, so it's not likely that the scum simply steal them.
This can't possibly be the case, and even if it is, I've repeatedly stated that we can pull this off using someone whose alignment can be confirmed.
I need to know how the confirmed town will get his confirmation? Surely not just on your own word, I presume...
-Alpha
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Lies! -I'm Buffy Summers, town tracker. I used my ability on you and saw that you didn't use any abilities before the game started. My flavor is I was sucked through a mysterious space-time portal and I'm here to kill all the vampires, and my tracking ability is a combination of my Slayer and Native American skills.
I need to know how the confirmed town will get his confirmation? Surely not just on your own word, I presume...
-Alpha
I can reveal the remainder of my information as soon as the majority of the town has provisionally agreed to move forward with the plan, pending a satisfactory explanation of how the confirmation worked. Until then it's best to keep it under wraps to protect their identity.
First off, we still don't have confirmation of any player, so by your faultless logic, Az, nobody should be given the hats! Unless you can somehow magically clear somebody beyond us putting our faith in your word.
Also, I see it as highly likely that the scum have a WC of control all hats. Like it keeps being said, the hat's fall off on death. That means roles never die, only players. If the mafia control all the roles, thus all the power, in the game, they would win. Now, the process of obtaining all the hats remains incredibly difficult if the hats are spread amongst the town, but if all the hats are in one persons hands, that makes it easy for the mafia to take control. The risks outweigh the rewards. The rewards are: One person dictates the actions of the hats, distributes them, and makes it more diffucult for the scum to win. The risks: Scum win, scum control all power roles, scum overpower the town with hats.
I say, the more spread out the hats are, the better. That way it's less likely that the scum gain a significant advantage. The Az plan could either be decently good, or incredbily bad. The non-Az plan could be both decently good and decently bad, that's all based upon how the town votes. So far there has been nothing that suggests to me that Az is someone who deserves to be trusted. It's all just one grand scheme, and I don't see it going anywhere good.
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Still ignoring the part where I can corroborate my story?
Giving the entire town their superpowers for the rest of the game definitely
helps the town. We're only talking one night here, out of seven or eight or nine.
This is our best chance to get our hats to who they really belong to, without the mafia pinpointing our power roles from folks picking up hats piecemeal.
Or someone who thinks you are town? Who knows, maybe bat decided to be a bastard. Too many (small) risks like this one. They accumulate into a big one, especially because we surely haven't thoguht of them all.
Yippee.
Whopie Dingle Doo. Ours are likely much more important.
I said DOC. You're gonna have to take the doc's hat. Assuming that there's a doc hat that you can use (we don't know for sure). Either you will have the doc hat - or the doc will be outed because he has to REFUSE TO GIVE IT UP. This will OUT HIM.
Plus, the hat likely has an obvious name (i.e. Surgeon Mask, Nurse Cap, WHATEVER) preventing it from being passed around subtly.
Why doesn't everyone see that this is a flawed plan? I'll try to say it plainly. First, I don't think Az is scum because of this necessarily; I've already said that. However, think to the beginning of his proposal.
People were worried because *shock and awe* what if people didn't give up all of their hats? How would we know?
"No, no," Az reassured us, "Charm will knock them all off!"
"Ah, genius!" cried the lemming mob.
And then it is discovered that Mr. Charm has a cap to his hat knocking off. But then, even more revolutionary is the realization that he can probably only knock off hats IF THEY ARE WEARING THE HAT at the time.
So, he really can't do anything to force mafia or other secretive, non-hat-giving-up people from truly emptying their inventory.
Does the mafia lose all of their abilities, as Azrael claims? No, most likely not.
Is this plan not thorough or complete? Yes.
Question to Azrael...this plan is not good if we you do not acquire all of the hats and inventory? Correct.
Question2 to Az...don't you see why it is very likely that several hats will not be relinquished to you, and you have no surefire way of obtaining them all?
On top of all of this you have said that it would take a while for this to be confirmed as well, making even more of a risk with you controlling all hats.
And what if somehow you are killed during the night (assuming you aren't scum)? The hats scramble all about and the mafia snatch up many of them, and you are unable to get us the information you were so keen on compiling. Leaving us in a more lopsided and worse position than this morning.
-Alpha
No, it means they're wrong. But anyway, in this post, you gave 6 benefits to the plan. Disregarding, for a second, the fact that most of those benefits actually aren't, please tell me, in detail, how you plan to accomplish those points, while hurting the mafia.
Interesting that you would make two posts right in a row, (within 6 minutes of each other, no less) and in the first one say "You're ignoring X" and in the second one say "You're still ignoring X."
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I don't see any reason to keep it hidden, so unless Az or DYH have glaring objections, I'll spill what the beret does.
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Since you don't know the mechanics that are involved here, I'm just going to ignore this.
Our own are only working at half-strength. Do you want to keep them at half-strength for the rest of the game?
.....
Except that doc doesn't have to refuse to give up the hat. They just give up the hat. Especially considering the true doc probably doesn't have the true doc hat yet, because all our hats are mixed up. Assuming that there even IS a doc hat.
None of the hats have been obvious. It's bad design. There's better ways to limit the doc. And it's almost a certainty that the doc hat doesn't simply make someone a doc.
They lose all their abilities for tonight, still, because if they put on any they've kept back in reserve, Charm still nails them. Investigative roles can still nail them. We don't need 100% of the hats.
The plan is good so long as we gain information about who likely townies are, who likely mafia are, we can keep hats away from the mafia, and link up townies with their true roles.
We don't need 100% exposure. Simply the more, the merrier.
First off, not necessarily.
Secondly, not a worry.
Thirdly, the mafia can't snatch up hats upon my death without falling into a counter-claiming quagmire. The town simply mandates that no one can pick up hats without a good explanation, or unless the hat fits their true nature.
Wouldn't leave us in a worse position at all, either. The town still gets to grab all their hats. We wouldn't gain the one-sided mass claim knowledge, but we're not any worse off. But again, that's not going to be a problem.
It's confirmable via hat-passing.
...You're familiar with the concept of mass-claiming? You're familiar with the concept of mass-claims helping the town pinpoint or narrow down scum candidates, and ruling out townies?
What about this model needs to be explained further?
*eyebrow*
since it's not really going to be that big a deal, I'll tell: the player who wears the beret cannot vote. So unless you've got a real good reason to pick that up, I wouldn't.
If you question how I know this, the answers are already in the thread. I can refer back to them if needed.
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Yeah, I know all that.
I also knew this:
http://misetings.com/forums/member.php?u=4948
However, salvation has two members that go by the name of Tilde. This Tilde is evidently not the MT Tilde. Unless he re-regged and just lied. Which I doubt.
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What in this game so far would make you think this? What would the Crown do? Or the Top Hat? What about the Beret, so far the most confusing hat IMO.
When Bat said this was a thinking game, I don't think he meant "look for the obvious!".
1) Azrael is confirmable.
2) We list our true hats.
3) We give all hats to Azrael. Azrael now has an idea of who is town: those with starting hats or true hats that wouldn't make sense for a mafia to have.
4) Azrael lists all powerful abilities on the hats. The town votes democratically on how these abilities should be used. (Protection goes to Az, probably)
5) Azrael redistributes the hats, each to its true owner. The town is now super-powered; so is the mafia, but their abilities are being controlled by the town democratically.
Possible holes:
1) Azrael is lying. I doubt this, because its a huge risk to take as a mafia and it has innumerable chances to backfire.
2) Scum claiming true hats that are not their real true hat. This either draws suspicion, since said hat does not exist, or will conflict with a townie resulting in a 1 for 1 trade.
3) Scum not giving away all their hats. If a townie's true hat is missing, we can force everyone to say "drop said hat" and we should get it. If it's a hat that the town doesn't know exists, we can't do much about it (ALTHOUGH we could create a list of hats and require everyone to drop every hat on the list.)
Even so, we are gaining control of every hat we know about, which is about all you can ask for.
I really don't see why this isn't the way to go. The town can completely dominate the game from this vantage point with very little risk.
Azrael: Did you say you can confirm someone? If so, why don't we confirm them now and give all the hats to him?
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Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
My problem with this plan remains the same. I just don't see how we're going to be able to correctly identify which hats belong to scum and which belong to town. I'd be really surprised if Bateleur made it easy for us to do so based simply on a mass claim-type maneuver like you're suggesting.
You make it sound like we're going to hook up every single townie with their correct hat, and also make sure to not give the mafia any of theirs. I just don't see this working out nearly as perfectly as suggested.
There's a first time for everything, anyone can propose a plan and later find out it was shortsighted, even Azrael.
He did, after all, mention that there were some things he didn't take into account originally, not that it changed his mind about the plan, but there you have it.
I'm not so sure that hats necessarily will be tied so much to alignment. I think it could even lead to mis-lynches. Without black and white views of good vs. evil, a town-aligned player may have a hat that does something typically thought to be "scummy."
It is certainly possible...
-Alpha
*scratches head*
If we could give that person a way of dodging kills, that could probably work. A hat that provides NK immunity, for instance. I had devised a different method of how I could manage to nullify the mafia's kills, but if we have another option available that could work also.
It won't be perfect, and it won't win the game for us, but it's going to get us off to a good start.
Bat has created a lot of hats that are balanced on mafia members in their natural form. We know that for sure.
But I also have information that suggests that the superpowers on at least some hats gives a very strong indication of that players' alignment, in certain cases. There's bound to be a few more like that.
Also, while we're not going to outright pin down any scum through their starting hats, we may get a few good leads out of it.
Obviously we won't want to use it to control the doctor, or alignment cops, but there are a lot of support roles where we could use that tactic to excellent effect.
You really seem to be grasping at straws...I don't get it.
Alright. I'm still a bit wary of putting all of our hats in the hands of one player, but I don't see any glaring issues with the plan at the present. I'm willing to go along with it for the time being. I'll drop my hat for you to pick up if the rest of the town agrees to it.
I also like Aurora's suggestions. I think acting in a controlled fashion like he suggested would be wise.
One last thing. I want to hear CM and DYH state how they feel about the "AzPlan". I've seen them make a decent amount of posts, but I can't recall any point where they actually had an opinion on the matter, which strikes me as strange, since this has been the huge topic of discussion.
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Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
I don't think it's really grasping at straws to be cautious about such a potentially detrimental plan. I want to make clear here that I'm fine with a plan such as this if there's a low probability of it losing the game for us. I've been burned before, and I don't think it should be considered a bad thing for me to understand the implications of something so large, and to assuage any potential problems.
Probably the biggest problem for me is just accepting the plan without really thinking it through to conclusion just b/c Azrael suggested it. No one is infallible, and while Az is a ridiculously good analyst and player, who knows what could happen.
I'd rather this game not be remembered for how foolish of a mistake the town made by releasing all of their abilities the first night and losing in a bloodbath (not that I'm saying it will happen, just why caution is important)
That all being said, I feel a bit better about the plan after some of Azrael's answers. I'll have to read into everything a bit more in depth to be sure. In particular, Aurorasparrow's plan seems to help some of the difficulties.
-Alpha
*shakes head*
Bateleur's rules state that we only learn the abilities that a hat has at the end of a day.
The doc won't be able to cover either me or the cleared townie tonight. There's a few good ways around that, but none that involve using doc protection.
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If we want, we could try passing off all the hats to the confirmed townie today. I could take care of the rest.
There's a couple different disadvantages to trying it this way, and it will put the confirmed townie at a slightly higher risk, but it's another way that this could work.
There's a few advantages, too, come to think of it.
Yeah, the only downside is that the townie's going to need doc consideration from now on.
Based on your plan, nobody besides the person who has the hats and the doc themselves should know who the doctor is anyway. As long as the doc hat is indistinguishable (as in, not titled "Doctor's Hat" or something similar), then it should work out.
I guess I still prefer doing it myself. If for some strange reason it things don't work out for me tonight, there's someone else who can run the exact same alternate plan that I would have tried, tomorrow, by using the alternate plan where the confirmed townie gets all the hats.
I weighed the options again, and I think our best shot is probably to give all the hats to the confirmed townie, after all.
Okay. Even if we adopt this plan, there are two drawbacks:
1) We lose almost every ability given to him. Assuming we probably will keep the best, which, based strictly on "best normal role", is a cop, we're losing whatever else is out there. Which could be negligible, considering the value gained. Who knows.
2) If that player doesn't survive the night, we lose all information gained (because it can't be carried on). So of course we need a doctor out, which runs the risk of losing him (although he can be replaced by picking the hat up, I suppose). Really, if this one fails, we will be severely harmed.
The only way I can see this working is if there is a player who has some kind of "untargetability" hat, which would make for a powerful effect.
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It all boils down to superpowers, really. But I suppose I can deal with a mass-claim.
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When a player dies, their hats are left on the floor. So the roles are still going to be around to be picked up by their true owners tomorrow morning. We just won't get the advantage in information, and we won't be able to stop the scum from powering up, too.
But I'm pretty sure this is going to work out alright one way or another even if the mafia have a RBer up their sleeves.
I think the doc hat goes into the ring with all the others. We don't expose them. Even if the doc hat normally functions as a bodyguard or something, we want to keep that power role secret from the scum.
Wouldn't hurt, but I've got this planned out so that the plan ought to work even without anything like that.
If I'm reading the timetable correctly, it looks like this:
Night 0: Az confirms another townie (if I'm reading this correctly)
Day 1: We all give hats to Az (there are some exceptions here, will discuss after)
Night 1: Az records all abilities and self-protects
Day 2: Reveals confirmed townie and gives all hats to him
Night 2: Confirmed townie verifies all abilities and self-protects
Day 3: We have controlled distribution of relevant roles.
Night 3: Ownage (hopefully)
(The exception I noted in day 1 includes the beret any the hat I'm currently wearing, which is similarly undroppable except via a CM boff [I'm assuming]. The verification of these hats [and any others of similar nature] will have to be public)
This timetable makes me pretty antsy. We'll basically be playing mountainous for the first three days (I guess we have night 0 results to work with). This obviously benefits the scum much more than the town, since they have their kill and we're pretty much handicapped. Also means that if this all goes to plan, Az is very likely dead night 2 when he passes all the stuff.
We don't actually gain access to our powers this way until night 3, not to mention the fact that a large portion of the information we're working so hard to conceal will already be available to the scum, plus the fact that townies will have to claim flavor in order to receive their appropriate hats
If there's any easily flavor to identify it negates most of the value achieved from finally pairing up those roles.
I think the main question is whether the potential gains of this plan (which are notable) outweigh the significant problems in its execution, particularly the length of time which it seems to take to actually fully execute everything, in which the town will be deprived of even partial use of its abilities. It may very well be, as the normal ability my hat has is quite weak, possibly even detrimental, and the superpower is quite strong, but then again I have one of the "stuck" hats, so I don't know if this is indicative of the hat situation in general or uniquely mine.
The main thing I'm worried about is how long this is going to take, and how vulnerable we're going to be in the meantime. Mountainous isn't the end of the world, but it does put the town at a significant disadvantage. If we're playing against stupid scum, I think we'll be fine, but if we're playing against smart scum, it could be really rough to effectively lose 2 days of even partial information (I guess this assumes that some of the hats are actually informational roles).
That was a lot of typing to say that I'm iffy about the merits/disadvantages of this plan, but that's where I am.
MTGS stats (won/played)
As scum - 3/5
As town - 5/7
As neutral - none
(I really have been scum a lot)
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Actually, the plan ought to work much faster than that.
The current timetable runs more like this:
Day 1: We give all hats to confirmed townie. (Minus one or two temporary exceptions I'll explain if we go ahead with the plan).
Night 1: Confirmed townie records all abilities. Certain key players do X during the night.
Day 2: Confirmed townie reveals lists of abilities. We control distribution throughout the town. Remaining items are given to the original confirmed townie, or subsequent confirmed townies, as needed.
Remainder of the Game: Ownage (hopefully).
Wait, so you're saying that you can confirm a townie AND you can talk to another person? What are you, a jester?
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The truth will be revealed in good time.
So far, all the scenarios are hypothetical. They are all best-case scenarios. I don't trust that. We cannot expect the Mafia to just fall over and die to a design glitch. And I highly doubt that Bat designed that kind of glitch in what he calls a 'thinking' game. Bat is fairly intelligent, so I don't think he would allow for a fairly obvious glitch in game.
Not only that, but after re-reading my PM, I noticed the lack of WC. There is nothing telling me that all the Mafia must die. I'm beginning to think that the scum WC is to control all the hats, or a majority of the hats. I also think that Charm's ability slightly confirms this. The ability to knock off and veritably steal hats from other players is a powerful one. I believe this power may come from the hat itself.
All in all, I think this 'plan' is nothing more than a scummy ruse just to have a day 1 win. I am perfectly fine with relying on plan B, which is a more common mafia plan: Vote: Azrael.
I see it as two options: go with the plan and seriously cripple the town, or start lynching dummies and see where it gets us. The town has won many games before with this classic strategy, so why abandon it now?
I don't see where the lack of a stated win condition means that the scum win by controlling all the hats. That seems like quite a leap in logic. Besides, even if that is the case, that still doesn't solve the problem of how the town wins.
I highly doubt the scum will win simply by controlling a majority of the hats. That would be way too easy of a win condition to achieve.
One person came up with it, at least six or seven have since agreed with it.
Can you explain how you believe this plan could hand the game to the scum?
*shakes head* It's not a design glitch, precisely. They won't fall over and die simply because of this gambit, Bateleur's setup isn't going to be broken completely by any mass claim tactic. But it definitely makes it an uphill battle for them. This gives us a tremendous edge.
If Bateleur had designed a game that could be broken through a day one win, then I think THAT would be a serious design glitch.
This can't possibly be the case, and even if it is, I've repeatedly stated that we can pull this off using someone whose alignment can be confirmed.
@Azrael: What hat were you wearing to begin with?
We're not abandoning the conventional approach. We still do behavioral analysis. We still lynch today. We never, ever stop playing the conventional game, no matter what other strategies we devise to supplement it.
Also, the assertion that there is a major risk in putting the hats in the hands of one person needs to be backed up. If that person is cleared, that risk doesn't exist. If the scum don't have the preposterous grab all hats win condition, the risk doesn't exist.
Even if the scum DO have a grab all hats win condition, they shouldn't have any method of grabbing all the hats tonight simply due to this plan. Bateleur has stated that the hats fall off upon death, so it's not likely that the scum simply steal them.
I need to know how the confirmed town will get his confirmation? Surely not just on your own word, I presume...
-Alpha
I can reveal the remainder of my information as soon as the majority of the town has provisionally agreed to move forward with the plan, pending a satisfactory explanation of how the confirmation worked. Until then it's best to keep it under wraps to protect their identity.
Also, I see it as highly likely that the scum have a WC of control all hats. Like it keeps being said, the hat's fall off on death. That means roles never die, only players. If the mafia control all the roles, thus all the power, in the game, they would win. Now, the process of obtaining all the hats remains incredibly difficult if the hats are spread amongst the town, but if all the hats are in one persons hands, that makes it easy for the mafia to take control. The risks outweigh the rewards. The rewards are: One person dictates the actions of the hats, distributes them, and makes it more diffucult for the scum to win. The risks: Scum win, scum control all power roles, scum overpower the town with hats.
I say, the more spread out the hats are, the better. That way it's less likely that the scum gain a significant advantage. The Az plan could either be decently good, or incredbily bad. The non-Az plan could be both decently good and decently bad, that's all based upon how the town votes. So far there has been nothing that suggests to me that Az is someone who deserves to be trusted. It's all just one grand scheme, and I don't see it going anywhere good.