I need to post more often so I can stop making monster posts -- but I doubt that's gonna happen.
Anyway, unvote, vote: jordman
I was initially hesitant because of, ironically, the timing of when he voted Azrael. It takes some serious balls to vote someone after a bunch of people have proclaimed his wagon as awful, and I'd been reading him as the type of person who'd more just go-with-the-flow as scum (and at that point, the "flow" would have been to vote someone who had just voted Azrael). However, since then there's been waaay too much stuff he's done that strikes me much more as noob-scum than noob-town. I find it very scummy that he Fos's Guardman in part for being "overzealous toward Azrael" when he himself once apparently agreed with those points (which should at least make them at least understandable).
I'm also very wary of the "if it would make your simple and scummy mind happier" line. He only throws out relatively minor suspicion (not even a vote) towards Guardman, so that line seems rather incongruous with his stated position.
My last point on jordman: I don't think his post 141 is a town tell. He doesn't have to be town to be annoyed at people misreading his posts. As scum, he'd be frustrated that he's receiving suspicion for a BS reason.
Also, I feel better about TeknoLink after looking at the other game he played and with his recent posting.
You do realize that scum can 'bus' their buddies with poor reasoning as well, right?
What about Teknolink ameliorates Johm's 'eyebrow-raising' behaviour?
Yes, I'm quite aware that scum can bus their buddies. I'm not quite sure where you got that I think Johm is town because of Teknolink's vote on him, but that's not the case (though I would expect a scum Tekno to be more likely to vote a town Johm in that situation than a scum Johm). I think Johm is town because his posts read to me like he genuinely believes what he is posting. By "eyebrow-raising" I mean weird behavior and opinions I strongly disagree with, but isn't necessarily scummy.
What are your thoughts on The Motley Fool?
Dunno, need to see more from him. The main thing that's suspicious about his behavior is how he's avoided giving any strong opinions. However, the wishy-washiness of a lot of his posts is something I've seen both noob-town and noob-scum do.
It was less what you said and more the excessive self-consciousness displayed in that reply, combined with the lack of even an attempt at justification for the original post. Even if you're being completely honest (entirely possible), 'hastiness' is just as easily a scum action as a lazy town action.
I'm not going to deny being self-conscious -- as I mentioned before, this is my first serious game (or second if you count the one on another site). It's also just a personality trait of mine. Actually, the reason I posted that reply was as much because I felt like an idiot for missing the obvious than to defend myself.
WIFOM. I think your language is way too strong in the above, too -- 'definitely not a scum tell'? Really?
How is that WIFOM? Are you implying that he made that first post so that I would come out and say: "aha --he must be telling the truth because of it!" No one would have brought this point against him if he hadn't made that initial post in the first place, so that makes no sense. The only argument that can be made that he's lying about missing the gender-claim at first is if he is scum and made a really dumb mistake.
I like this reasoning a lot better than what you were saying before (unless that was what you were saying before and I just missed that).
What I was saying before already assumes that Johm is telling the truth about missing the gender-claim the first time. He could miss the gender-claim as town or scum, but my point was that if he realized he missed the claim as scum, I'd expect him to be more self-conscious about it and bring that point up in his second post. The fact that he didn't strikes me as more indicative of a townie, though as I said before, it's a weak tell.
you forgot this scummy bit of Kettle/Pot interaction
So, as a noob, I can't ask anyone else if they're noobs? This isn't the pot calling the kettle black; this is the pot asking if the kettle is black as well.
158: Good post by DM but it belies his claimed experience or lack thereof. I really don't buy that someone who by his own admission has only played one and "lurked in a bunch of games" (not really proper phrasing, but let's move on) would be able to accurately chronicle the shifting use and relevance of traditional scumtells such as OMGUS. It bothers me, but I can't tell what implication it has for his alignment.
I'm not quite sure what you're saying here. Are you saying that you suspect I'm lying about my experience? Frankly, that would be a dick-move if I did that, particularly since I posted the same thing in the sign-up thread (which is outside of the game).
@anyone who knows the answer I have a general question: in games where there is no night 0, do scum typically know the abilities of their scum-buddies before the first night, or do they just know who they are? So for example, would they know if one of their buddies has a roleblocking ability during day 1 or not?
You know, after thinking about it, I have to somewhat agree with DYH.
As much as I'd like to say Jordman is just a new player who we're beating up on for being new, I cannot deny he's been really scummy. We can't simply give him a free pass because he or she is new.
Because he's a new player, there are few mistakes he or she can make that can give us a good actual read on him or her--pretty much only direct contradictions to expose lies.
If we make him claim, there's a chance of him or her messing up the claim(supposing no mafia daytalk) with little chance of doing so if town. Additionally, we have counterclaim possibility.
The disadvantage is we risk exposing a power role, if jordman is such.
Ultimately, I think it makes since to make Jordman claim. If we let him reach night, we know he can get a decent falseclaim from the rest of the mafia, whereas there is not guarentee currently, and the earlier he or she does falseclaim, the higher the chances we'll run into a contradiction somewhere down the road.
@anyone who knows the answer I have a general question: in games where there is no night 0, do scum typically know the abilities of their scum-buddies before the first night, or do they just know who they are? So for example, would they know if one of their buddies has a roleblocking ability during day 1 or not?
@anyone who knows the answer I have a general question: in games where there is no night 0, do scum typically know the abilities of their scum-buddies before the first night, or do they just know who they are? So for example, would they know if one of their buddies has a roleblocking ability during day 1 or not?
Mods never share what the mafia's abilities are. If this is a daytalk game, they might know already.
Mods never share what the mafia's abilities are. If this is a daytalk game, they might know already.
What made you wonder about that?
DesCoures's comment about scum busing each other just made me think more about when scum would want to bus their buddy as opposed to when they would want to fight harder to protect them, which made me think about scum abilities, which made me curious about the answer to my question. There's not any specific reason why I wanted to know (like where I would vote someone if the answer was yes or something).
My last point on jordman: I don't think his post 141 is a town tell. He doesn't have to be town to be annoyed at people misreading his posts. As scum, he'd be frustrated that he's receiving suspicion for a BS reason.
This is a really interesting point, and it seems valid. I watched the beginning of Pirate Ninja since I was on the alternate list, and jordman (as scum) started getting extremely touchy when any sort of attention was cast his way...I think we're seeing some of that here, and he's certainly had some scummy behavior patterns.
[b]Unvote[/b]
[/b]Vote: jordman[/b]
@Mystery Meat of Doom: This doesn't get you off the hook. When you're back in the game I'll have some questions.
As has been noted by several players already, this post is absolutely scummy...
But I can't help but wonder if Guardman is using it as an excuse to get away from his argument with Azrael, too.
Doing a good job of avoiding commitment here. "As has been noted by several players"..."I can't help but wonder"...these phrases are good at shirking responsibility.
Azrael alone is enough of a "fray" to warrant watching anyone who hopped on board, but there were several people who had voiced a dissenting opinion on the gender claim by that time, which is what I was referencing.
The explanation seems reasonable, and it was a minor point from the start, but every little bit counts.
The delicious irony of this is that the unrevealed problem I had with Calvin's post was the line in it that reminded me of you from Led Zepplin mafia. The bit about 'not everyone posts as often as you do' reminded me an awful lot of your 'I don't contribute much in the early game'. Setting up a lack of activity, or lurkery. I was watching to see what Calvin's activity level looked like; which so far has been pretty good.
The situations may seem comparable, but your response does not. For something that reminded you an "awful lot" of my scumtell, there's an "awful lot" of difference between these:
Ah, the image tell. One of my personal favorites! (Seriously, it's awesome). Remember that post I asked you all to keep in mind? Bring it back to the forefront. Got it? OK, good.
Tell me then, Zindabad, why you posted what you did about your lack of content above? I'd argue that's a much bigger image tell than what MMoD referenced. He's making a valid defense against being called a bandwagonner when he believed he was placing a legitimate vote amongst a couple silly ones. You were simply saying "I'm not lurking, honest!".
I don't care for Calvin's large post; he basically took the arguments Pale Mage and I had with JohM000 and repeated it. There are a couple other lines in there that trouble me, also. Keeping an eye out here.
The material was not inaccurate. Old, yes; inaccurate, no. At that time, we were hitting scum at a clip of about 60% on day one. My gut feeling from recent games I've played in is that rate is still quite good. We would've had to fail at an alarming rate to put it under 33% which would be about like a random lynch in a standard setup.
Poor wording on my part. The material was not inaccurate, but its application to this situation is. Using the list compiled by arimnaes for the mafia forum awards, then adding the games in progress whose lynches have passed D1, I find out of 29 lynches, 10 were scum and 1 was a claimed neutral survivor. Even counting the survivor as scum, that's only a 37% hit rate, only a few percentage points above what is essentially a random lynch.
I had that data compiled for everyone to see, but sadly MTGS ate my post last night. I'll bring it back up when I have a moment, but anyone who wants to can of course go see for himself.
Excellent post. When I see the acting "noob" vs. acting "scummy" debate, I cringe. If people are acting scummy, they get called on it. Period.
Nonsense. To say this is to proclaim there's no difference between people who act scummy because they have something to hide (being scum for example) and people who act scummy because they're new to the game and don't know any better.
Also an excellent post, and Jordman's subsequent response isn't inspiring. I need to consider where he stands versus Johm000 and Guardman, my current "top three".
It fails to inspire me that your top three are two base noobs and someone (Guardman) who's 95% town for me.
The "beat my wife" comparison does not apply, here; he has not put you in a spot where you're confessing with either answer. You're welcome to have a differing opinion on Johm without condemnation at this point.
Yeah, the use of the phrase wasn't correct. My original objection stands.
I don't think he cares, and I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish with an idle threat like that.
Now this is where it really gets interesting. Poor choice of the phrase "idle threat," DYH. I told CP I was going to watch him - I hardly think that's a threat, as that's part of this game, and it certainly wasn't idle. His response was to spew out some defensive claptrap with plenty of the charged language you yourself successfully accused me of using in Led Zep when targeted as scum.
Now you step in for him. And particularly curious is "I don't think he cares." Was that a pre-emptive attempt to discredit me? It must have been, because I fail to see what townie motivation could possibly have produced that statement. vote: DYH
While you're at it, please let me know why someone (you, that is) who once labeled it the "friend of scum" has used three FoSes in this game.
Atomic Requiem in Camp Taconic, Bilbroxain in Unreal City... somehow we do learn... that you make cases on people who act scummy.
Go look at some of the recent day 1 mislynches: Stormblind in Inheritance, Xyre in Janus, these are not new players going to the gallows. Your argument is moot.
Our scum hit rate has weakened drastically as I have shown because we do not adequately take noobishness into consideration in large games. My argument stands. Your move.
@Mystery Meat of Doom: This doesn't get you off the hook. When you're back in the game I'll have some questions.
Nice dig. I like that.
As to jordman, I reread his posts; a couple posts were scummy, but his overall behaviour doesn't give me really scummy vibes, not to mention I dislike DM's and TMF's votes; his quote of DM's I disagree with: scum/town both get frustrated when they're voted for BS reasons, especially since it seems like that was what he was driving at, so I don't even know what his point was.
there's no trying to sound like a good townie there is trying to be a good townie because this is my second bloody game and I died within ten seconds of the first one, personally I think its reasonable for me to have no ****ing clue whats going on!
Doing a good job of avoiding commitment here. "As has been noted by several players"..."I can't help but wonder"...these phrases are good at shirking responsibility.
Hardly. It's obvious in my post that I'm suspicious of Jordman and Guardman. In fact, I make that statement later in the same post, which later in this post you reference.
Quote from Zindabad »
The explanation seems reasonable, and it was a minor point from the start, but every little bit counts.
Sure, when you're actively seeking to make a case out of nothing, I guess.
Quote from Zindabad »
I'd classify it as the behavior of overwrought noob town.
And I'd classify it as fearmongering and sensationlizing.
Quote from Zindabad »
The situations may seem comparable, but your response does not. For something that reminded you an "awful lot" of my scumtell, there's an "awful lot" of difference between these:
Please explain the discrepancy.
I have no history with Calvin; I have a history with you. I knew the line you used in Led Zeppelin was bogus; I don't know that about Calvin.
Quote from Zindabad »
Poor wording on my part. The material was not inaccurate, but its application to this situation is. Using the list compiled by arimnaes for the mafia forum awards, then adding the games in progress whose lynches have passed D1, I find out of 29 lynches, 10 were scum and 1 was a claimed neutral survivor. Even counting the survivor as scum, that's only a 37% hit rate, only a few percentage points above what is essentially a random lynch.
I had that data compiled for everyone to see, but sadly MTGS ate my post last night. I'll bring it back up when I have a moment, but anyone who wants to can of course go see for himself.
That's fair, except I don't play in newbie games, and I don't play in basics - both which tend to contain more players with less experience. Neither of those were applied when Andelijah did his math, because IIRC we didn't even have the basic queue. Take those out and get back to me; I think you'll find a drastically different answer.
[Also, you didn't bother to add Andelijah's data to your data, which would increase that rate significantly. As I said, we'd have to be pretty horrible as of late to drop it below a random lynch.]
Quote from Zindabad »
Nonsense. To say this is to proclaim there's no difference between people who act scummy because they have something to hide (being scum for example) and people who act scummy because they're new to the game and don't know any better.
It's nearly impossible to derive the difference between the two, as it is possible for new players to act scummy and, you know, actually be scum. Better to vote people who act scummy and sort it out from there than to give newbies a free pass because they're new.
Quote from Zindabad »
It fails to inspire me that your top three are two base noobs and someone (Guardman) who's 95% town for me.
This is the same line of crap ZDS used in Cubus' game to express suspicion on me (we were both town there - now both dead - game still in progress). I express suspicion of people who do scummy things. I don't care who they are.
Quote from Zindabad »
Yeah, the use of the phrase wasn't correct. My original objection stands.
So why sensationalize it? Why make it look like Carrion Pigeons was trying to make you look guilty of something?
Quote from Zindabad »
Now this is where it really gets interesting. Poor choice of the phrase "idle threat," DYH. I told CP I was going to watch him - I hardly think that's a threat, as that's part of this game, and it certainly wasn't idle. His response was to spew out some defensive claptrap with plenty of the charged language you yourself successfully accused me of using in Led Zep when targeted as scum.
Now you step in for him. And particularly curious is "I don't think he cares." Was that a pre-emptive attempt to discredit me? It must have been, because I fail to see what townie motivation could possibly have produced that statement. vote: DYH
Because your "Massive overreaction. Noted" comment accomplishes nothing. There's no substance behind it. Carrion Pigeons presented a logical argument and your responses to it were to accuse him of giving you a loaded question (which you've already acquiesced was an invalid comparison) and post that. Color me unimpressed.
Quote from Zindabad »
While you're at it, please let me know why someone (you, that is) who once labeled it the "friend of scum" has used three FoSes in this game.
Because I don't have four votes?
It's not like I never use FoSes; the "friend of scum" tell was focused around catching a scum buddy unwilling to place a vote on a growing wagon and relying on FoS in hopes that the pressure will subside. A) We're not really at that point yet, and B) I've already got a vote placed, so I wouldn't be looking at myself in such a hypothetical situation.
Quote from Zindabad »
Our scum hit rate has weakened drastically as I have shown because we do not adequately take noobishness into consideration in large games. My argument stands. Your move.
Uh, no, it doesn't. I just provided you an equal number of "newb scum" being lynched on day one as you provided mislynches.
If you want to factor in Newb games and basics, sure, your argument holds water; if you take into account normal level games and above, I'd bet it doesn't.
there's no trying to sound like a good townie there is trying to be a good townie because this is my second bloody game and I died within ten seconds of the first one, personally I think its reasonable for me to have no ****ing clue whats going on!
Barn: Kpaca. I'm inclined to agree with your thoughts on Jordman, it sounds like a good place to start.
Johm000, I could tell you any number of scenarios where a soft-claim caught a scum out later in the game. The number of times where a soft-claim has helped the town is faar more than the few number of times where a scum used it to hurt the town.
Consider me in favour of a gender claim.
Why didn't you vote here if this was a good place to start? And where are you? Not liking you.
Please note the numbers I gave in my above post did not include noob games or basics.
Out of 29 full-fledged games on this site, since the 2008-2009 mafia season began, we have lynched 10 mafia, 1 claimed survivor, and 18 townies on Day One.
What difference does andelijah's data make? I'm talking about the shift in the mafia scene on MTGS. You are saying that we have an excellent D1 hit record, and I'm saying that we don't. Maybe historically it's better than it has been recently, but recently is what really matters. And the reason we have lost ground on that hit rate is because we do not give adequate allowance to noob behavior in full games. johnm and jordman are fodder for the same grinder that saw Callaway, Toastboy, Cantripmancer et al. lynched in their first full games.
@the rest of you: Please don't tl;dr this point of contention between DYH and I. You may label it theorycrafting, but I think it is a legitimate (and negative) trend on MTGS and it's something worth looking into.
Is that a retreat from a previous figure? A 38% hit rate isn't a thrilling performance, but it's not abysmal either. It's near the threshold hit rate that will allow the town to eek out a win.
Considering how little information the town has on day one, that's a little higher than I would have guessed.
There is a tendency to fail to distinguish between innocent, new behavior and actual scum-newb behavior. Persuading the town to lynch off its weakest members is textbook scum strategy, and they frequently get away with it. Still, I wouldn't say it's a mistaken approach to take aim at more inexperienced scum first. They do exist, and they are easier to catch early on.
I'd argue we simply have to improve our ability to evaluate and distinguish between the two. There should be a flashing neon warning sign going off in your head whenever you're attacking a player whose actions could be explained by inexperience.
Please note the numbers I gave in my above post did not include noob games or basics.
Out of 29 full-fledged games on this site, since the 2008-2009 mafia season began, we have lynched 10 mafia, 1 claimed survivor, and 18 townies on Day One.
I'm looking over completed games at the moment (awards stuff), but what I'm seeing doesn't support your data. Could you maybe list the 18 townies and the games where they were lynched pretty please?
Is that a retreat from a previous figure? A 38% hit rate isn't a thrilling performance, but it's not abysmal either. It's near the threshold hit rate that will allow the town to eek out a win.
The previous figure in question is 60%, provided by DYH from andelijah's outdated data. I think we can all agree that is no longer the case.
There is a tendency to fail to distinguish between innocent, new behavior and actual scum-newb behavior. Persuading the town to lynch off its weakest members is textbook scum strategy, and they frequently get away with it. Still, I wouldn't say it's a mistaken approach to take aim at more inexperienced scum first. They do exist, and they are easier to catch early on.
I'd argue we simply have to improve our ability to evaluate and distinguish between the two. There should be a flashing neon warning sign going off in your head whenever you're attacking a player whose actions could be explained by inexperience.
This is what I'm saying. Please, don't think I'm arguing there's no such thing as a noob scum and that we should lay off all new players immediately as a policy. But I am saying that we have an unfortunate tendency to see all noob behavior as scum behavior and to act accordingly.
I'm looking over completed games at the moment (awards stuff), but what I'm seeing doesn't support your data. Could you maybe list the 18 townies and the games where they were lynched pretty please?
I had all of it last night, but sadly MTGS made it all disappear. I hope to have that data back up by tonight.
Would you say that, in general, it's a better idea to drive a "beleaguered noob townie" to a lynch with or without a claim? Or from the opposite perspective, would you say that, in general, it's a better idea to attack suspicious players and try to drive them into claim range, or let them alone?
The "beleaguered" part and the "noob" part have nothing to do with anything. Making townies claim is unfortunate, as we all know, but that doesn't change the fact that making scum claim is a necessity. I have no patience with people arguing that any potential for error means we should take no action. Stop dithering already: if you don't think Johm is scum, grow some balls and actually say so, but in any case cut it out with the whole, "X person might be wrong in his assessment, so we should abandon the whole line of questioning!"
By the way, feel free to put me on your watchlist, but when you actually decide to put forward a case, do me a favor and have more evidence than the fact that I might be wrong about something I said.
This seems like an overreaction. It could just be a really confident townie but his last line makes me think he feels threatened and is marking out his territory in response.
The delicious irony of this is that the unrevealed problem I had with Calvin's post was the line in it that reminded me of you from Led Zepplin mafia. The bit about 'not everyone posts as often as you do' reminded me an awful lot of your 'I don't contribute much in the early game'. Setting up a lack of activity, or lurkery. I was watching to see what Calvin's activity level looked like; which so far has been pretty good.
I said in the sign-up thread that I would only post once a day or two.
As to jordman, I reread his posts; a couple posts were scummy, but his overall behaviour doesn't give me really scummy vibes, not to mention I dislike DM's and TMF's votes; his quote of DM's I disagree with: scum/town both get frustrated when they're voted for BS reasons, especially since it seems like that was what he was driving at, so I don't even know what his point was.
I think he was driving at that some people (myself included) noted that post as a town points for Jman - he was arguing that it shouldn't be taken as such, which apparently you agree with.
I definitely can understand that newer players are more likely to screw up than more experienced players, but what does that say about their alignment? Nothing. They can screw up as scum or town.
There is some benefit to actually lynching a scummy new player as the analysis they would provide is not going to be on par with the value an experienced player would provide. In fact, I've seen several times over here that people have been wary of a player but held back because they did not want to lynch an analyst who if town would be a huge asset.
I do understand the want for more caution when dealing with newer players but I think it should all be dealt with on a case by case situation. Should they be treated just like every other player? No. Should we just glaze over any misdeeds because they are new? No. Mindest and motivation should play a large part in determining their alignments.
In Jman's specific case I feel like he isn't aware of what will happen when he posts. That doesn't say anything about his alignment but I don't feel comfortable about moving forward with him right now - I don't feel that there has been that much scumminess on his part.
It's ironic that even though there is no guile or deception involved in Jman's posts (it seems like he posts directly what he is thinking), they take even more brainpower to decipher the real meaning behind them.
About the posts I wanted to comment on before: I didn't feel like Jman's post was anything too scummy but the call for lurkers to post did feel off.
1. You basically fold under pressure from kpaca and others on the basis that Az makes too much sense after you voted him and barning my reasoning that Az doesn't make sense...
2. You call out all lurkers. Deflecting much?
3. Um... yeah this seems like another over reaction. You only have two votes... well soon to be three votes.
Unvote Azreal
Vote jordman
And this post really bothered me. It seems too much - as if Guardman found himself in an undesirable position with Azrael and then was given a get-out of jail free card and used it with gusto. The language is all extra-stimulated: "My god" ":facepalm:" "Deflecting much" "Um...yeah", and I can't help but feel that he is injecting it with fake feelings.
I will be looking back at Guardman's interactions with Azrael the next chance I get and see how they fit into this puzzle.
In his very first post, he shows to be heavily against soft-claiming, and he even votes PM for suggesting it.
Random vote with no explanation is random? Even though we're off RVP.
Then, he's "more disposed to consider" a softclaim, but still fairly against the original gender softclaim.
And now he's all for softclaiming, both at once!
The fact you changed your view so drastically points in a heavy scum direction.[B]
[B]Vote: Azrael.[/B][/B][/b]
...wow. Wow.
After having had absolutely nothing to say about Azrael for the entire game -- after never having voiced a single word of suspicion about him -- and well after he began talking about a combined softclaim.... you throw together a hasty case and an equally hasty vote the very moment Guardman and Pale Mage begin voting Azrael.
No 'noob hand-waving' can excuse scummy behaviour of this magnitude.
though i see the wagon beginning to form it is one I think i should take part in, I was caught in basic 11 by ae for the same reasons he is now going after az, I think if they were valid there they are valid here and though he is less likely to flail he seems the scummiest currently.
[B]Vote azrael[/B]
This is pretty horrible too, but somehow jordman still isn't reading as scum for me -- just incredibly easily led.
[B]@anyone who knows the answer[/B] I have a general question: in games where there is no night 0, do scum typically know the abilities of their scum-buddies before the first night, or do they just know who they are? So for example, would they know if one of their buddies has a roleblocking ability during day 1 or not?
Mmmmm.
/action mentally revises Dancing Mad closer to town.
[B]@zindabad[/B]
...[B]FoS zindabad[/B]
I'm getting some very disturbing vibes from this post...
24: Az is against it, citing Puzzle-itis, and votes PM (ostensibly for proposing the claim.)
50: Az relates some story material that might mess up any gender claim, and says his primary concern is for bounty hunters. We all know who's most worried about neutrals, right?
149: Az is still talking about neutrals. Shouldn't we be thinking about what the mafia are going to do, since we know they exist, rather than hypothetical bounty hunters?
165: Oh look. Az is mentioning bounty hunters again. Third time's the charm?
173: Wagon vote from PM but let's think about Az for a while. Is it possible he's the bounty hunter? It might explain his repeated murmurings about that role - see MTGJ in Led Zep talking excessively about the cult leader when he himself was it - and his sudden push for a double softclaim after hemmng and hawing over the single one. It's a weak wagon, as kpaca notes, not so much because Az hasn't been dodgy but because of the kind of people jumping onto it.
182: Fourth time's the charm, maybe.
204/210: Az really does seem to backtrack here. That's ok. Everyone changes their mind. I think I personally disagree with what he's saying. We do soft-claims cognizant of the possible risk. He seems to be downplaying that risk to an extreme after speaking out about it earlier, which I find disturbing.
There's a consistent trend in the above of you implying malign intentions on Azrael's part, starting with post 50, the very second post of his you mention. This trend first begins with you implying clearly that Azrael might be mafia (with the whole 'who is most concerned about neutrals' thing) and goes all the way to eventual speculation about him actually being the bounty hunter, replete with meta (someone else's, too) from Led Zeppelin.
And at the end of it all... you don't vote for him, despite the large number of hanging implications in the above?
Granted, you do give a fair reason for that later, in the following:
Your choice of the word "disparaging" is an odd and inaccurate one here. Almost all of my notes regarding you revolve around your seeming obsession with bounty hunters. I like them too, especially Gondar, but as I mentioned it seems a little over the top.
I don't want to vote you because I think your wagon sprouted entirely too quickly and was populated by people who likely do not have the town's best interest at heart.
I would like you to answer this, however. This was Azrael's wagon:Pale Mage, Guardman (who I note you called town for going after Azrael), [B]jordman, Johm000[/B].
Riddle me this, zindabad. Who were these people who 'likely do not have the town's best interest at heart' among this list, hm?
----------------
That's the first thing. The second thing is what you had to say about DYH:
44: DYH points out the flaws in johnm's argument, but characterizes his vote on PM as "joining the fray" - there's exactly one other vote on PM at the time, and no other voices calling him scummy. Then he throws an FoS on dC. More on this later.
48: Confusion from johnm as he's conflating mass claiming and soft claiming (but only slightly.) DYH's follow-up seems opportunistic.
88: DYH criticizes johnm for "fearmongering and sensationalizing" the downside of the soft claim.
108: DYH is sticking to his soft-claiming guns here, although he throws another FoS at Calvin here despite not really providing any evidence as to why.
163: That's another FoS from DYH. And he's referencing material we'll later find out is old and inaccurate. Being wrong, or presenting wrong arguments, is hardly indicative of scum but once again I just find myself being rubbed thoroughly the wrong way by DYH.
203: DYH re-appears with andelijah's analysis. I simply don't have the time to contest this at the length I would like, but suffice it to say I find it specious.
I find it vaguely alarming that nearly every attack you make on DYH here has something to do with DYH's attack on Johm000. (163 and 203 are frankly just irrelevant, as well.)
You also attack DYH's 88 for criticizing Johm000 for 'fearmongering'... but earlier in the same post, you had this to say about Pale Mage:
57: This is more reasonable criticism of johnm from PM, calling him an "alarmist." I can agree with that assessment, although it certainly doesn't make me go "obvscum."
There is no real difference between 'alarmist' and 'fearmongering', zindabad. I'm interested in why you made this 'reasonable' note beside Pale Mage, but not DYH.
Since it's also relevant to you vis-a-vis DYH, I'll also address the numbers game the two of you are indulging in here:
Please note the numbers I gave in my above post did not include noob games or basics.
Out of 29 full-fledged games on this site, since the 2008-2009 mafia season began, we have lynched 10 mafia, 1 claimed survivor, and 18 townies on Day One.
What difference does andelijah's data make? I'm talking about the shift in the mafia scene on MTGS. You are saying that we have an excellent D1 hit record, and I'm saying that we don't. Maybe historically it's better than it has been recently, but recently is what really matters. And the reason we have lost ground on that hit rate is because we do not give adequate allowance to noob behavior in full games. johnm and jordman are fodder for the same grinder that saw Callaway, Toastboy, Cantripmancer et al. lynched in their first full games.
@the rest of you: Please don't tl;dr this point of contention between DYH and I. You may label it theorycrafting, but I think it is a legitimate (and negative) trend on MTGS and it's something worth looking into.
Your theoretical 37% is still way above the hit rate of a random lynch, which would vary from 25-30%, assuming 25% mafia + 1 anti-town neutral.
Furthermore, despite your bemoaning of the new preponderance of day 1 mislynches (which may indeed be the case, as the Salvation Mafia community opens up to more new players and some of the old retire), the fact remains that even such mislynches can and have been useful. Toastboy's lynch in Persona Mafia showed up the suspicious behaviour of Guardman and to a lesser extent, Kraj, for example, and although it's been a while since I read it, I seem to recall Cantripmancer's lynch in Rogue Squadron Mafia put some mafia under suspicion as well. Such lynches can and do have their uses, assuming a reasonably competent town.
Finally, whether there is or is not actually a trend of this sort, do you really have sufficient reason to believe the exact same thing is happening in this game? Because if not, this is worse than meta -- it's meta-meta, two full degrees of separation from relevance to this game.
40: Slightly contradictory position from dC here - he calls PM's softclaim bad, but then tells us that the mod is asking us to game him. Disconnect?
There is no disconnect. I called Pale Mage's softclaim bad, but then posed a question to someone else entirely about whether he thought the mod inviting us to game him justified the question. The question was for the purpose of eliciting a response, and should not be construed as support of any softclaim.
103: Weak vote by dC against johnm - he even justifies it with the phrase "stock scumtells", which are also noob tells in many cases as he ought to know.
I'm fairly certain I made a good number of other points against Johm000, both in the same post and prior to it. In this same post I see myself mentioning his continuing hyperbole. I further disagree on your 'noob tell' point, but that will take rather longer than I want to spend on this right now.
152: This is Calvin's post, but I re-read a quote from dC in it that bothers me. dC tells us that mafia like bad ideas, which the soft claim is, but then that johnm is "stridently anti-soft claim" and "exceedingly scummy." Another disconnect from the Riddler himself. In actual Calvin-related news, I'm liking him as town although he has not been quite as forward as my experience with him in an ongoing game.
This is an interesting misrepresentation. Calvin asked me why I was so interested in the people who supported the softclaim rather than it's initial proposer; I said that (1) I'd been interested in them because mafia like bad ideas, but more recently (2) because Johm000 was both stridently anti-softclaim and exceedingly scummy (which Johm000 somehow felt the need to reply to, claiming he wasn't 'stridently anti-softclaim'). I later solidify this position by mentioning that I might be coming around to the gender softclaim, given how many of my suspects are against it.
160: dC's thought processes seem good here, but his ultimate conclusion - naming johnm, DM and TMF as scum suspects - is exceedingly weak and I have to once again expect better from him. Rest assured I will not let him off the hook as easily as I did in Inheritance for making poor arguments against weak-looking targets if that proves to be the case again here.
...hmm. A rather interesting and blatant attempt at discrediting me, no? And painting yourself in a crusading light at the same time. If my thought processes are good, why would my 'choice of suspects' be enough to counter that? Ceterus paribus, newb scum are more likely to make mistakes early than experienced scum anyway -- the fact that my suspect list seems to be full of newbs should not change the relevance of their behaviour and my arguments.
I further don't like the fact that most of your 'recap' was spent on subtle and not-so-subtle defenses of Johm000, and you somehow completely failed to address the individual posts of the horrible wagon on Azrael, especially Johm000's own incredibly scummy hop onto it, which I mention earlier in this post. I'd like a comment on that, please.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Esper Simperer; Even the court homonculi need someone to look down on.
Jund Fangirl; Few things can describe the bliss of the fangirl's cries fading to silence (broken by occasional munching sounds).
Grixis Emo; 'Why should I go out there? They're all uncaring zombies! *sniff* No one understands me...' Bant Wageslave; Behind every successful knight is a corporate drudge doing his taxwork.
Naya Overenthusiast; Because there is such a thing as too much enthusiasm.
Anyway, unvote, vote: jordman
I was initially hesitant because of, ironically, the timing of when he voted Azrael. It takes some serious balls to vote someone after a bunch of people have proclaimed his wagon as awful, and I'd been reading him as the type of person who'd more just go-with-the-flow as scum (and at that point, the "flow" would have been to vote someone who had just voted Azrael). However, since then there's been waaay too much stuff he's done that strikes me much more as noob-scum than noob-town. I find it very scummy that he Fos's Guardman in part for being "overzealous toward Azrael" when he himself once apparently agreed with those points (which should at least make them at least understandable).
I'm also very wary of the "if it would make your simple and scummy mind happier" line. He only throws out relatively minor suspicion (not even a vote) towards Guardman, so that line seems rather incongruous with his stated position.
My last point on jordman: I don't think his post 141 is a town tell. He doesn't have to be town to be annoyed at people misreading his posts. As scum, he'd be frustrated that he's receiving suspicion for a BS reason.
Also, I feel better about TeknoLink after looking at the other game he played and with his recent posting.
Yes, I'm quite aware that scum can bus their buddies. I'm not quite sure where you got that I think Johm is town because of Teknolink's vote on him, but that's not the case (though I would expect a scum Tekno to be more likely to vote a town Johm in that situation than a scum Johm). I think Johm is town because his posts read to me like he genuinely believes what he is posting. By "eyebrow-raising" I mean weird behavior and opinions I strongly disagree with, but isn't necessarily scummy.
Dunno, need to see more from him. The main thing that's suspicious about his behavior is how he's avoided giving any strong opinions. However, the wishy-washiness of a lot of his posts is something I've seen both noob-town and noob-scum do.
I'm not going to deny being self-conscious -- as I mentioned before, this is my first serious game (or second if you count the one on another site). It's also just a personality trait of mine. Actually, the reason I posted that reply was as much because I felt like an idiot for missing the obvious than to defend myself.
How is that WIFOM? Are you implying that he made that first post so that I would come out and say: "aha --he must be telling the truth because of it!" No one would have brought this point against him if he hadn't made that initial post in the first place, so that makes no sense. The only argument that can be made that he's lying about missing the gender-claim at first is if he is scum and made a really dumb mistake.
What I was saying before already assumes that Johm is telling the truth about missing the gender-claim the first time. He could miss the gender-claim as town or scum, but my point was that if he realized he missed the claim as scum, I'd expect him to be more self-conscious about it and bring that point up in his second post. The fact that he didn't strikes me as more indicative of a townie, though as I said before, it's a weak tell.
So, as a noob, I can't ask anyone else if they're noobs? This isn't the pot calling the kettle black; this is the pot asking if the kettle is black as well.
I'm not quite sure what you're saying here. Are you saying that you suspect I'm lying about my experience? Frankly, that would be a dick-move if I did that, particularly since I posted the same thing in the sign-up thread (which is outside of the game).
@anyone who knows the answer I have a general question: in games where there is no night 0, do scum typically know the abilities of their scum-buddies before the first night, or do they just know who they are? So for example, would they know if one of their buddies has a roleblocking ability during day 1 or not?
You're trying too hard to fit into the framework of the town. classic newb scum tell.
Callaway is just epicly cursed. I don't know of a game where he wasn't lynched day one.
that fence hurting your ass at all?
for the question, the answer is yes.
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
I AM TEH MASTAH O FAIL
ty spiderboys
Mods never share what the mafia's abilities are. If this is a daytalk game, they might know already.
What made you wonder about that?
DesCoures's comment about scum busing each other just made me think more about when scum would want to bus their buddy as opposed to when they would want to fight harder to protect them, which made me think about scum abilities, which made me curious about the answer to my question. There's not any specific reason why I wanted to know (like where I would vote someone if the answer was yes or something).
I think I will.
This is a really interesting point, and it seems valid. I watched the beginning of Pirate Ninja since I was on the alternate list, and jordman (as scum) started getting extremely touchy when any sort of attention was cast his way...I think we're seeing some of that here, and he's certainly had some scummy behavior patterns.
[b]Unvote[/b]
[/b]Vote: jordman[/b]
@Mystery Meat of Doom: This doesn't get you off the hook. When you're back in the game I'll have some questions.
How are you saying the two look alike?
Doing a good job of avoiding commitment here. "As has been noted by several players"..."I can't help but wonder"...these phrases are good at shirking responsibility.
The explanation seems reasonable, and it was a minor point from the start, but every little bit counts.
I'd classify it as the behavior of overwrought noob town.
The situations may seem comparable, but your response does not. For something that reminded you an "awful lot" of my scumtell, there's an "awful lot" of difference between these:
Please explain the discrepancy.
Poor wording on my part. The material was not inaccurate, but its application to this situation is. Using the list compiled by arimnaes for the mafia forum awards, then adding the games in progress whose lynches have passed D1, I find out of 29 lynches, 10 were scum and 1 was a claimed neutral survivor. Even counting the survivor as scum, that's only a 37% hit rate, only a few percentage points above what is essentially a random lynch.
I had that data compiled for everyone to see, but sadly MTGS ate my post last night. I'll bring it back up when I have a moment, but anyone who wants to can of course go see for himself.
Nonsense. To say this is to proclaim there's no difference between people who act scummy because they have something to hide (being scum for example) and people who act scummy because they're new to the game and don't know any better.
It fails to inspire me that your top three are two base noobs and someone (Guardman) who's 95% town for me.
Yeah, the use of the phrase wasn't correct. My original objection stands.
Now this is where it really gets interesting. Poor choice of the phrase "idle threat," DYH. I told CP I was going to watch him - I hardly think that's a threat, as that's part of this game, and it certainly wasn't idle. His response was to spew out some defensive claptrap with plenty of the charged language you yourself successfully accused me of using in Led Zep when targeted as scum.
Now you step in for him. And particularly curious is "I don't think he cares." Was that a pre-emptive attempt to discredit me? It must have been, because I fail to see what townie motivation could possibly have produced that statement. vote: DYH
While you're at it, please let me know why someone (you, that is) who once labeled it the "friend of scum" has used three FoSes in this game.
Our scum hit rate has weakened drastically as I have shown because we do not adequately take noobishness into consideration in large games. My argument stands. Your move.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Nice dig. I like that.
As to jordman, I reread his posts; a couple posts were scummy, but his overall behaviour doesn't give me really scummy vibes, not to mention I dislike DM's and TMF's votes; his quote of DM's I disagree with: scum/town both get frustrated when they're voted for BS reasons, especially since it seems like that was what he was driving at, so I don't even know what his point was.
I get what you mean by that. At some point, they both asked something along the lines of "what am i supposed to do?"
I AM TEH MASTAH O FAIL
ty spiderboys
Hardly. It's obvious in my post that I'm suspicious of Jordman and Guardman. In fact, I make that statement later in the same post, which later in this post you reference.
Sure, when you're actively seeking to make a case out of nothing, I guess.
And I'd classify it as fearmongering and sensationlizing.
I have no history with Calvin; I have a history with you. I knew the line you used in Led Zeppelin was bogus; I don't know that about Calvin.
That's fair, except I don't play in newbie games, and I don't play in basics - both which tend to contain more players with less experience. Neither of those were applied when Andelijah did his math, because IIRC we didn't even have the basic queue. Take those out and get back to me; I think you'll find a drastically different answer.
[Also, you didn't bother to add Andelijah's data to your data, which would increase that rate significantly. As I said, we'd have to be pretty horrible as of late to drop it below a random lynch.]
It's nearly impossible to derive the difference between the two, as it is possible for new players to act scummy and, you know, actually be scum. Better to vote people who act scummy and sort it out from there than to give newbies a free pass because they're new.
This is the same line of crap ZDS used in Cubus' game to express suspicion on me (we were both town there - now both dead - game still in progress). I express suspicion of people who do scummy things. I don't care who they are.
So why sensationalize it? Why make it look like Carrion Pigeons was trying to make you look guilty of something?
Because your "Massive overreaction. Noted" comment accomplishes nothing. There's no substance behind it. Carrion Pigeons presented a logical argument and your responses to it were to accuse him of giving you a loaded question (which you've already acquiesced was an invalid comparison) and post that. Color me unimpressed.
Because I don't have four votes?
It's not like I never use FoSes; the "friend of scum" tell was focused around catching a scum buddy unwilling to place a vote on a growing wagon and relying on FoS in hopes that the pressure will subside. A) We're not really at that point yet, and B) I've already got a vote placed, so I wouldn't be looking at myself in such a hypothetical situation.
Uh, no, it doesn't. I just provided you an equal number of "newb scum" being lynched on day one as you provided mislynches.
If you want to factor in Newb games and basics, sure, your argument holds water; if you take into account normal level games and above, I'd bet it doesn't.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
Do you have any opinions on anyone at this point?
Why didn't you vote here if this was a good place to start? And where are you? Not liking you.
I'll untangle Zindabad vs. DYH later.
Out of 29 full-fledged games on this site, since the 2008-2009 mafia season began, we have lynched 10 mafia, 1 claimed survivor, and 18 townies on Day One.
What difference does andelijah's data make? I'm talking about the shift in the mafia scene on MTGS. You are saying that we have an excellent D1 hit record, and I'm saying that we don't. Maybe historically it's better than it has been recently, but recently is what really matters. And the reason we have lost ground on that hit rate is because we do not give adequate allowance to noob behavior in full games. johnm and jordman are fodder for the same grinder that saw Callaway, Toastboy, Cantripmancer et al. lynched in their first full games.
@the rest of you: Please don't tl;dr this point of contention between DYH and I. You may label it theorycrafting, but I think it is a legitimate (and negative) trend on MTGS and it's something worth looking into.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
1/3 seems pretty good to me.
It's no better than a random lynch.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Considering how little information the town has on day one, that's a little higher than I would have guessed.
There is a tendency to fail to distinguish between innocent, new behavior and actual scum-newb behavior. Persuading the town to lynch off its weakest members is textbook scum strategy, and they frequently get away with it. Still, I wouldn't say it's a mistaken approach to take aim at more inexperienced scum first. They do exist, and they are easier to catch early on.
I'd argue we simply have to improve our ability to evaluate and distinguish between the two. There should be a flashing neon warning sign going off in your head whenever you're attacking a player whose actions could be explained by inexperience.
Random lynch is more like 1/4-1/5
I thought I knew exactly who you meant by "that wagon", but know I'm not certain. Clarify?
I'm looking over completed games at the moment (awards stuff), but what I'm seeing doesn't support your data. Could you maybe list the 18 townies and the games where they were lynched pretty please?
Jordman's wagon = bad idea.
We should leave that pot to boil/fester.
The previous figure in question is 60%, provided by DYH from andelijah's outdated data. I think we can all agree that is no longer the case.
This is what I'm saying. Please, don't think I'm arguing there's no such thing as a noob scum and that we should lay off all new players immediately as a policy. But I am saying that we have an unfortunate tendency to see all noob behavior as scum behavior and to act accordingly.
I had all of it last night, but sadly MTGS made it all disappear. I hope to have that data back up by tonight.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
Guardman(1) - Deaths Vampire
Dancing Mad(1) - Infinis
Kpaca(1) - Some One
Johm000(3) - DYH, Carrion Pigeons, descoures
jordman(6) - Kpaca, Bilbroxain, Guardman, Azrael, Nom_Anor, Dancing Mad
Azrael(3) - Archmage Eternal, Pale Mage, Johm000
The Motley Fool(1) - MMoD
MMoD(2) - Teknolink, The Motley Fool
I feel a jordman lynch is bad.
Getting caught up.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Not great excuses, but yeah I'm all read up now, so here's some thoughts.
Some players I believe to be obvtown:
Johm - His reaction to the softclaim idea, as stated, was over-the-top and alarmist, but logical from a newer player's perspective.
Kpaca - I've seen scum Kpaca. This is not scum kpaca.
Carrion Pigeons - No math yet, and that is a positive sign. Add that to solid analysis, and I'm happy to vote him town.
Some players I believe to be scummy:
TeknoLink - Seems eager to barn other players - haven't seen a lot of original information from him.
Zindabad - For all the reasons DYH laid out.[/barn]
Jordman - I think he's melting down under pressure, which iirc is something he's done in another game.
Some players I believe to be Azrael:
Azrael - completely solid analysis, completely unreadable to me, as per usual. Probably town. Also probably scum. Also probably a cult leader.
yes,this was in response to a ridiculously scummy post of his. I'll see if I can dig it up.
@Cyan: Technically, right now I'm voting for jordman, if you missed the post.
Vote AE X1000.
No, I'm not going to recruit you.
I AM TEH MASTAH O FAIL
ty spiderboys
I AM TEH MASTAH O FAIL
ty spiderboys
I think he's joking around with AE. Don't sweat it, it makes you look suspicious.
I AM TEH MASTAH O FAIL
ty spiderboys
learn2timestamp?
Do you even know what OMGUS means?
So I voted you in response to a ridiculously scummy post of my own?
You guys make no sense.
Actually no, I really would like to see AE's body stuffed and mounted in the first post of the thread.
I AM TEH MASTAH O FAIL
ty spiderboys
yeah, going over the thread again, my bad.
Do tell why.
I expect multiple quotes.
This seems like an overreaction. It could just be a really confident townie but his last line makes me think he feels threatened and is marking out his territory in response.
Well that explains everything then...
Can you please spell out clearly and to the point why DM is scummy? What you seem to be saying right now seems very weak and stretchy.
I like that you seem to be concerned about actually discerning Jman's alignment.
I said in the sign-up thread that I would only post once a day or two.
Yes, this is the feeling I take away from Jman's posts. He doesn't have a clue what to do.
I think he was driving at that some people (myself included) noted that post as a town points for Jman - he was arguing that it shouldn't be taken as such, which apparently you agree with.
Pssst. Aren't you still voting him?
Hi. Please catch up soon. Thanks.
Regarding the whole Zindabad/DYH/newb/scum/D1:
I definitely can understand that newer players are more likely to screw up than more experienced players, but what does that say about their alignment? Nothing. They can screw up as scum or town.
There is some benefit to actually lynching a scummy new player as the analysis they would provide is not going to be on par with the value an experienced player would provide. In fact, I've seen several times over here that people have been wary of a player but held back because they did not want to lynch an analyst who if town would be a huge asset.
I do understand the want for more caution when dealing with newer players but I think it should all be dealt with on a case by case situation. Should they be treated just like every other player? No. Should we just glaze over any misdeeds because they are new? No. Mindest and motivation should play a large part in determining their alignments.
In Jman's specific case I feel like he isn't aware of what will happen when he posts. That doesn't say anything about his alignment but I don't feel comfortable about moving forward with him right now - I don't feel that there has been that much scumminess on his part.
It's ironic that even though there is no guile or deception involved in Jman's posts (it seems like he posts directly what he is thinking), they take even more brainpower to decipher the real meaning behind them.
About the posts I wanted to comment on before: I didn't feel like Jman's post was anything too scummy but the call for lurkers to post did feel off.
I felt this wasn't warranted because he did ask for explanations of why he was scum.
And this post really bothered me. It seems too much - as if Guardman found himself in an undesirable position with Azrael and then was given a get-out of jail free card and used it with gusto. The language is all extra-stimulated: "My god" ":facepalm:" "Deflecting much" "Um...yeah", and I can't help but feel that he is injecting it with fake feelings.
I will be looking back at Guardman's interactions with Azrael the next chance I get and see how they fit into this puzzle.
Basic #10-Town-Win
Sword of Truth-Town-Loss
LOTR II - Town-Loss
Indiana Jones - Town-Win
Manipulator - Town-Win
The Asphodel Meadows - Town-Win
Highlander - Neutral Survivor - Win
Az I hope you know that voting Archmage is probably very unproductive. Probably.
Quit helping the infidels.
[B]@Archmage Eternal[/B]
.....hmmm.
[B]FoS Archmage Eternal[/B]
[B]@Johm000[/B]
...wow. Wow.
After having had absolutely nothing to say about Azrael for the entire game -- after never having voiced a single word of suspicion about him -- and well after he began talking about a combined softclaim.... you throw together a hasty case and an equally hasty vote the very moment Guardman and Pale Mage begin voting Azrael.
No 'noob hand-waving' can excuse scummy behaviour of this magnitude.
[B]Vote Johm000 if I wasn't already[/B]
[B]@kpaca[/B]
Very agreed.
[B]@jordman[/B]
This is pretty horrible too, but somehow jordman still isn't reading as scum for me -- just incredibly easily led.
[B]@TeknoLink[/B]
....the irony is strong in this one.
[B]@The Motley Fool[/B]
...and in this one, too.
Ah, do I see an opportunistic jump on jordman?
[B]@Dancing Mad[/B]
Mmmmm.
/action mentally revises Dancing Mad closer to town.
[B]@zindabad[/B]
...[B]FoS zindabad[/B]
I'm getting some very disturbing vibes from this post...
This is what you had to say about Azrael:
There's a consistent trend in the above of you implying malign intentions on Azrael's part, starting with post 50, the very second post of his you mention. This trend first begins with you implying clearly that Azrael might be mafia (with the whole 'who is most concerned about neutrals' thing) and goes all the way to eventual speculation about him actually being the bounty hunter, replete with meta (someone else's, too) from Led Zeppelin.
And at the end of it all... you don't vote for him, despite the large number of hanging implications in the above?
Granted, you do give a fair reason for that later, in the following:
I would like you to answer this, however. This was Azrael's wagon:Pale Mage, Guardman (who I note you called town for going after Azrael), [B]jordman, Johm000[/B].
Riddle me this, zindabad. Who were these people who 'likely do not have the town's best interest at heart' among this list, hm?
----------------
That's the first thing. The second thing is what you had to say about DYH:
I find it vaguely alarming that nearly every attack you make on DYH here has something to do with DYH's attack on Johm000. (163 and 203 are frankly just irrelevant, as well.)
You also attack DYH's 88 for criticizing Johm000 for 'fearmongering'... but earlier in the same post, you had this to say about Pale Mage:
There is no real difference between 'alarmist' and 'fearmongering', zindabad. I'm interested in why you made this 'reasonable' note beside Pale Mage, but not DYH.
Since it's also relevant to you vis-a-vis DYH, I'll also address the numbers game the two of you are indulging in here:
Your theoretical 37% is still way above the hit rate of a random lynch, which would vary from 25-30%, assuming 25% mafia + 1 anti-town neutral.
Furthermore, despite your bemoaning of the new preponderance of day 1 mislynches (which may indeed be the case, as the Salvation Mafia community opens up to more new players and some of the old retire), the fact remains that even such mislynches can and have been useful. Toastboy's lynch in Persona Mafia showed up the suspicious behaviour of Guardman and to a lesser extent, Kraj, for example, and although it's been a while since I read it, I seem to recall Cantripmancer's lynch in Rogue Squadron Mafia put some mafia under suspicion as well. Such lynches can and do have their uses, assuming a reasonably competent town.
Finally, whether there is or is not actually a trend of this sort, do you really have sufficient reason to believe the exact same thing is happening in this game? Because if not, this is worse than meta -- it's meta-meta, two full degrees of separation from relevance to this game.
---------------------
Finally, this is what you had to say about me:
There is no disconnect. I called Pale Mage's softclaim bad, but then posed a question to someone else entirely about whether he thought the mod inviting us to game him justified the question. The question was for the purpose of eliciting a response, and should not be construed as support of any softclaim.
I'm fairly certain I made a good number of other points against Johm000, both in the same post and prior to it. In this same post I see myself mentioning his continuing hyperbole. I further disagree on your 'noob tell' point, but that will take rather longer than I want to spend on this right now.
This is an interesting misrepresentation. Calvin asked me why I was so interested in the people who supported the softclaim rather than it's initial proposer; I said that (1) I'd been interested in them because mafia like bad ideas, but more recently (2) because Johm000 was both stridently anti-softclaim and exceedingly scummy (which Johm000 somehow felt the need to reply to, claiming he wasn't 'stridently anti-softclaim'). I later solidify this position by mentioning that I might be coming around to the gender softclaim, given how many of my suspects are against it.
I'm beginning to sense an agenda at this point.
...hmm. A rather interesting and blatant attempt at discrediting me, no? And painting yourself in a crusading light at the same time. If my thought processes are good, why would my 'choice of suspects' be enough to counter that? Ceterus paribus, newb scum are more likely to make mistakes early than experienced scum anyway -- the fact that my suspect list seems to be full of newbs should not change the relevance of their behaviour and my arguments.
I further don't like the fact that most of your 'recap' was spent on subtle and not-so-subtle defenses of Johm000, and you somehow completely failed to address the individual posts of the horrible wagon on Azrael, especially Johm000's own incredibly scummy hop onto it, which I mention earlier in this post. I'd like a comment on that, please.
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I AM TEH MASTAH O FAIL
ty spiderboys
'Sup, coach?
Stop deflecting onto lurkers. It just makes you more obvious.
And why is that? Or is this post just an OMGUS?
LOLFAIL!!!!!!
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