So... are we just going to wait for AG to propose or...?
Does anyone (besides shadow) want to make an argument against Q2+Rhand/Mindreaver?
Would Proph like to say anything at all?
Could AG let us know what he's thinking right now?
And I'm gonna reply anyway, just from a probability standpoint, taking a quest with 1 fail and adding 2 people is worse mathematically than taking a quest with 1 fail and adding 1 person.
Q2 + mind/Rhand is a 40% failure rate, whereas Q3 + me is a 25% failure rate.
If I take you and Vaimes out of the equation entirely, it becomes
Q2 + mind/Rhand is a 67% failure rate, whereas Q3 + me is a 50% failure rate.
_______________________________________________
However, what it really comes down to is if people think proph is more likely to be scum than I am to be town.
@Iso: can you please prod Vaimes, Proph, Cantrip, D_V, AG and Osie?
@Everyone: if we do Q3+1, who would for you be acceptable as the +1?
I'm here, too, just extremely busy irl. Also feeling a little dejected because I'm being scumread by a lot of the players I feel are town, so I'm not feeling like my opinion is going to count for much. Regardless...
Q3+1 I'd be ok with me or AG, probably Osie, maybe Shadow. I'm not seeing what others are on Terry. Don't think DV is a good choice.
Sorry...having a very hard time mustering energy for this game, even in qulo. The lack of flips is flippin' obnoxious.
I did that a while ago; I still have the votals in my spreadsheet, even. But I didn't post it because it directly helps the assassin find Merlin.
I guess it won't matter if we fail here, but. If you're town you may want to reconsider or at least explain why you're doing it anyway.
If AG does not show up, then while I would do Q3 + D_V or Cantrip, if 6 people (So one additional person beyond Rhand, Silver, Terry, Mind, and Shadow) declare that neither of those is going to go through, I guess we can go with Q3 + Shadow, as squeamish as that makes me.
Crap. I think there might have been 2 scum on Q3...
Like, in what world is Osie okay with Q3+me OR Q3+DV?
...Maybe it's just wine?
I don't think so. How could there be? One of them gambited? Who even could be the other? Proph and Rhand together?
I'll eat my hat if there's two. It's possible he was hoping if he had to propose Q3+you to keep up appearances you would put him in your spot for Q5?
But why wouldn't he try to propose the townie that no one is actually sure about in the PoE instead of you?
I guess he /could/ be town, but that only works if Brinatoo is also, which means AG is scum...
......
This game makes my head hurt. Too many, like, half alignments and partial worlds and things and I'm not really in a position to be able to figure out how they're all connected. Vaimes ~probably could but he might out Merlin if he did, I guess.
Crap. I think there might have been 2 scum on Q3...
Like, in what world is Osie okay with Q3+me OR Q3+DV?
...Maybe it's just wine?
I don't think so. How could there be? One of them gambited? Who even could be the other? Proph and Rhand together?
I'll eat my hat if there's two. It's possible he was hoping if he had to propose Q3+you to keep up appearances you would put him in your spot for Q5?
But why wouldn't he try to propose the townie that no one is actually sure about in the PoE instead of you?
I'm here, too, just extremely busy irl. Also feeling a little dejected because I'm being scumread by a lot of the players I feel are town, so I'm not feeling like my opinion is going to count for much. Regardless...
Yeah, I'm on the last week of the semester at my school, so things have been a bit... hectic over the past couple weeks. I also have about as much motivation than you do, if not less, given that I already went through showing that I was town and it sucked.
But to anytown who thinks I'm scum: I guess it doesn't matter at this point, since there's enough people who don't recognize 5+ town. And that's why I was suggesting Shadow. Because I guess I've kinda given up. But that's not right. If it comes around to me, I'm just going to propose Q3 + Cantrip to completely avoid the D_V/Shadow dichotomy crap, and if you all want to shut that down, that's your prerogative.
Unless there's some important question directed towards me, I'm going to focus on IRL stuff for the most part until AG proposes a quest or it's my turn to propose a quest.
It does. Osie is blabbering. Just like Cantrip btw. Town!cantrip would not like Q3+AG.
I've never liked the idea of putting AG on a quest.
The whole point Rhand is making about Cantrip/AG is that they're a dichotomy, so why don't you like putting AG on a quest?
I have not been thinking about this game in terms of dichotomies, but Cantrip has appeared to me to be town throughout the game, and AG has appeared to me to be scum throughout the game. It feels clearer than the D_V/Shadow pairing.
Looking at this beautiful piece of art above, this is what i think:
Quest 1 intentionally was passed by DV despite him being scum.
Quest 2, Proposal 1 may have been blocked because most people probably felt that dropping one person from a quest with 3 passes to add two question marks, seemed like a statistically bad play.
Quest 2, Proposal 2 was passed because of the reason outlined above. We know now, after the fact, that more than likely the Vaimes counterclaim paired with inhumanly amounts of scumminess by DV, means more than likely Vaimes is Town and DV is scum who failed the quest. With this clear cut example of scum, it should validate the other two players as town (Silver & Shadow), unless one of them is Oberon and passing quests, which I think is a whole lot of WIFOM.
Quest 3, Proposal 1 is a tough one. I can't see why shadow was removed from the pool and silver was left in. Mindreaver, at this point had been a pretty universal town read, Vaimes is a gimme. I think we need to take a close look at this group because most likely one of the three (Rhand, Mindreaver, and Proph) is scum. An interesting fact is that it was a universal approval. No one said No, which would be a great town-tell.
Quest 4, Proposal 1 suffered from the same logic that Quest 2 Proposal 1 did. It took away one player and added two. Adding in two X factors seems to really make our player pool uncomfortable. This is especially important because on Quest 4 we are allowed one fail and still can pass. So if we have a guaranteed 1 fail in Quest 3, we basically have the same odds of doing an earlier successful quest and adding 1. If we add two, we have the potential of adding two scum in addition to the 1 potential scum already on the quest.
This is what we tried on Quest 4 Proposal 2, but it was also shot down. Osi was the +1 one in this case and Osi, has not been read as the most town player in our pool.
I think we need to do a plus 1 to Quest 3. Obviously I hope it's me, but I would also accept Shadow.
/barn Terry completely, but there's nothing new there.
I'm hoping AG does Q3+Terry.
@Cantrip: I'm too drunk I guess. In my world you're a dichotomy with AG because of Osie, but since you put Osie as one of the possible people to be Q3+1, in your world that dichotomy obviously doesn't exist. So meh.
At any rate, walk me through your gamestate. Who is town, who is scum? Why?
Quest 2, Proposal 1 may have been blocked because most people probably felt that dropping one person from a quest with 3 passes to add two question marks, seemed like a statistically bad play.
Quest 2, Proposal 2 was passed because of the reason outlined above. We know now, after the fact, that more than likely the Vaimes counterclaim paired with inhumanly amounts of scumminess by DV, means more than likely Vaimes is Town and DV is scum who failed the quest. With this clear cut example of scum, it should validate the other two players as town (Silver & Shadow), unless one of them is Oberon and passing quests, which I think is a whole lot of WIFOM.
Quest 3, Proposal 1 is a tough one. I can't see why shadow was removed from the pool and silver was left in. Mindreaver, at this point had been a pretty universal town read, Vaimes is a gimme. I think we need to take a close look at this group because most likely one of the three (Rhand, Mindreaver, and Proph) is scum. An interesting fact is that it was a universal approval. No one said No, which would be a great town-tell.
You start out the (entire game) analysis with the assumption that D_V is scum. Then you switch to "Okay, well we don't know at this point, but, after the fact, Vaimes is town and here I'll throw some dirt on D_V." And then you switch AGAIN to this time saying nothing outside everyone's status quo. The amount of information that you have just oscillates, with a lot of sheeping... Huh. Whatever. Everybody should already have been scumreading you most if not all of this entire game.
Quest 4, Proposal 1 suffered from the same logic that Quest 2 Proposal 1 did. It took away one player and added two. Adding in two X factors seems to really make our player pool uncomfortable. This is especially important because on Quest 4 we are allowed one fail and still can pass. So if we have a guaranteed 1 fail in Quest 3, we basically have the same odds of doing an earlier successful quest and adding 1. If we add two, we have the potential of adding two scum in addition to the 1 potential scum already on the quest.
Keep in mind that without the vote order, this would have only not gone through by 1 vote: One of you, Rhand, Shadow, AG, Brinatoo, and Proph. To me, that was perfect. Because if exactly one of those people is town, that fits perfectly with the information that I've seen in this game. And Silver, D_V, Cantrip, Vaimes, and Mindreaver were all saying about the same around that time. Maybe it's just convenient that it matched up near perfectly with my reads. But that is incredibly suspicious to me. And the fact that Proph was the least certain about voting the way they did hammers it in even more.
Obviously I hope it's me, but I would also accept Shadow.
Yeah, no. I'm certainly not putting you on a quest. If AG defaults, then I don't think that counts as unaccepted for the purpose of the 5 unaccepted quests. I don't remember if it came up earlier... Asking @iso. If it does, well, if my quest is vetoed, then Shadow can decide the game for you and your scumbuddies, and congratulations, I guess. If it does not, then at least there's a chance that Silver can propose a winning quest instead of one of y'all.
@AG, Osie, Shadow: are you all scumreading Cantrip?
He's my best guess for the last scum. Hasn't really done anything too townie. If I were to send a team purely based on townieness I'd go with Q3-Proph + shadow +Terry.
It's definitely a thing that Cantrip, Osi, and AG can't all be town together. There's only two town in [AG/Cantrip/Terry/Brinatoo/Osi] because there's two scum [D_V/shadow]+[Rhand/Mindreaver/Proph].
Regarding Q3's proposal, shadow voted against it unless I made a mistake in my votals. And four of the 3in5 players abstained with the fifth being the proposer.
Blegh. I want to look at the full votal but lol!merlinhunting.
Oh, nevermind, curse kindly attached my spreadsheet. Well, that's not any worse than the assassin going back to look at the hammer post since I didn't colorize it, I guess.
I guess, I'd probably vote for it. I think when drunk Rhand and I both agree on Terry, it's when I have to assume it's proph, or I'm absolute ***** at this game.
Shadow and D_V are the dichotomy, but even assuming you're putting the wrong one on this quest, it's effectively Q3 + Terry, which is my top choice.
I guess the only problem would be Shadow and Terry as scum together, which I'll have to re-read a bit to weigh in on. But gut feeling is no, I don't think the team could be both of them.
If I were to send a team purely based on townieness I'd go with Q3-Proph + shadow +Terry.
Mmm. That is spicy. I'd... probably vote yes, I guess? Shadow/Terry isn't any worse than shadow/D_V unless they're scum together like Mindreaver said...
Sorry that I bailed just then, Rhand. I literally walked out the door two minutes after I posted. I have to get some stuff done, but I should have an opportunity to post more tonight. Thanks for your patience.
@DV: What happened to you, man (if that's not too personal a thing to ask)?
Also, I read something about Seppel removing himself from the premises, Lorax-style...truth?
Q2 + mind/Rhand is a 40% failure rate, whereas Q3 + me is a 25% failure rate.
If I take you and Vaimes out of the equation entirely, it becomes
Q2 + mind/Rhand is a 67% failure rate, whereas Q3 + me is a 50% failure rate.
_______________________________________________
However, what it really comes down to is if people think proph is more likely to be scum than I am to be town.
I only said not you because from your PoV D_V is confirmed scum so you'll be against it no matter what.
@Everyone: if we do Q3+1, who would for you be acceptable as the +1?
For me: AG > Terry > Shadow
@Proph: can you provide your latest scum game for mindreaver please? I can't remember one off the top of my head.
I'm around and keeping up with things.
Osi, Cantrip, or D_V.
Q3+1 I'd be ok with me or AG, probably Osie, maybe Shadow. I'm not seeing what others are on Terry. Don't think DV is a good choice.
Sorry...having a very hard time mustering energy for this game, even in qulo. The lack of flips is flippin' obnoxious.
I'm leaning town on Cantrip.
Yes (6): Vaimes, Rhand, shadowlancerx, Silvercrys3467, D_V, Brinatoo
No (2): TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, osieorb18
Quest 2, Proposal 1 (Rhand): Silvercrys3467/D_V/Vaimes/Cantripmancer (Declined)
Yes (3): Shadowlancerx, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys3467
No (7): Cantripmancer, RJST, D_V, AtheistGod, Mindreaver, Brinatoo, Osieorb18.
Quest 2, Proposal 2 (RSJT): Silvercrys3467, shadowlancerx, D_V, Vaimes (3x Pass 1x Fail) FAIL
Yes (8): Silvercrys3467, Cantripmancer, Mindreaver, shadowlancerx, D_V, Rhand, osieorb18, Proph
No (1): AtheistGod
Quest 3, Proposal 1 (Cantrip): Vaimes, Rhand, Mindreaver, Proph, Silver (4x Pass, 1x Fail) FAIL
Yes (6): Prophylaxis, D_V, Rhand, Silvercrys3467, Vaimes, Mindreaver
Quest 4, Proposal 1 (DV): Proph, Mindreaver, Silver, Vaimes, Cantrip, Osieorb18 (Declined)
Yes (2): osieorb18, Mindreaver
No (6): AtheistGod, Brinatoo, shadowlancerx, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry, Prophylaxis, Rhand
Quest 4, Proposal 2 (Brinatoo): Vaimes, Rhand, Mindreaver, Prophylaxis, Silvercrys3467, osieorb18 (Declined)
Yes (2): osieorb18, Cantripmancer
No (4): Mindreaver, D_V, AtheistGod, Silvercrys3467, shadowlancerx, TheRealStinkyJoeTerry
Posting so I don't lose this. Analysis coming soon...
I guess it won't matter if we fail here, but. If you're town you may want to reconsider or at least explain why you're doing it anyway.
I'm also very drunk from goood wine. Good wine rocks. You should all try it.
I'm assuming if AG doesn't show up it just defaults to Osie, right?
If AG does not show up, then while I would do Q3 + D_V or Cantrip, if 6 people (So one additional person beyond Rhand, Silver, Terry, Mind, and Shadow) declare that neither of those is going to go through, I guess we can go with Q3 + Shadow, as squeamish as that makes me.
Like, in what world is Osie okay with Q3+me OR Q3+DV?
...Maybe it's just wine?
It does. Osie is blabbering. Just like Cantrip btw. Town!cantrip would not like Q3+AG.
I'll eat my hat if there's two. It's possible he was hoping if he had to propose Q3+you to keep up appearances you would put him in your spot for Q5?
But why wouldn't he try to propose the townie that no one is actually sure about in the PoE instead of you?
I guess he /could/ be town, but that only works if Brinatoo is also, which means AG is scum...
......
This game makes my head hurt. Too many, like, half alignments and partial worlds and things and I'm not really in a position to be able to figure out how they're all connected. Vaimes ~probably could but he might out Merlin if he did, I guess.
I can't be sure on Shadow or D_V. So they are roughly equivalent.
I've never liked the idea of putting AG on a quest.
Yeah, I'm on the last week of the semester at my school, so things have been a bit... hectic over the past couple weeks. I also have about as much motivation than you do, if not less, given that I already went through showing that I was town and it sucked.
But to anytown who thinks I'm scum: I guess it doesn't matter at this point, since there's enough people who don't recognize 5+ town. And that's why I was suggesting Shadow. Because I guess I've kinda given up. But that's not right. If it comes around to me, I'm just going to propose Q3 + Cantrip to completely avoid the D_V/Shadow dichotomy crap, and if you all want to shut that down, that's your prerogative.
Unless there's some important question directed towards me, I'm going to focus on IRL stuff for the most part until AG proposes a quest or it's my turn to propose a quest.
I have not been thinking about this game in terms of dichotomies, but Cantrip has appeared to me to be town throughout the game, and AG has appeared to me to be scum throughout the game. It feels clearer than the D_V/Shadow pairing.
Quest 1 intentionally was passed by DV despite him being scum.
Quest 2, Proposal 1 may have been blocked because most people probably felt that dropping one person from a quest with 3 passes to add two question marks, seemed like a statistically bad play.
Quest 2, Proposal 2 was passed because of the reason outlined above. We know now, after the fact, that more than likely the Vaimes counterclaim paired with inhumanly amounts of scumminess by DV, means more than likely Vaimes is Town and DV is scum who failed the quest. With this clear cut example of scum, it should validate the other two players as town (Silver & Shadow), unless one of them is Oberon and passing quests, which I think is a whole lot of WIFOM.
Quest 3, Proposal 1 is a tough one. I can't see why shadow was removed from the pool and silver was left in. Mindreaver, at this point had been a pretty universal town read, Vaimes is a gimme. I think we need to take a close look at this group because most likely one of the three (Rhand, Mindreaver, and Proph) is scum. An interesting fact is that it was a universal approval. No one said No, which would be a great town-tell.
Quest 4, Proposal 1 suffered from the same logic that Quest 2 Proposal 1 did. It took away one player and added two. Adding in two X factors seems to really make our player pool uncomfortable. This is especially important because on Quest 4 we are allowed one fail and still can pass. So if we have a guaranteed 1 fail in Quest 3, we basically have the same odds of doing an earlier successful quest and adding 1. If we add two, we have the potential of adding two scum in addition to the 1 potential scum already on the quest.
This is what we tried on Quest 4 Proposal 2, but it was also shot down. Osi was the +1 one in this case and Osi, has not been read as the most town player in our pool.
I think we need to do a plus 1 to Quest 3. Obviously I hope it's me, but I would also accept Shadow.
I'm hoping AG does Q3+Terry.
@Cantrip: I'm too drunk I guess. In my world you're a dichotomy with AG because of Osie, but since you put Osie as one of the possible people to be Q3+1, in your world that dichotomy obviously doesn't exist. So meh.
At any rate, walk me through your gamestate. Who is town, who is scum? Why?
@Terry: Why is your logic perspective changing from here
to here
to here?
You start out the (entire game) analysis with the assumption that D_V is scum. Then you switch to "Okay, well we don't know at this point, but, after the fact, Vaimes is town and here I'll throw some dirt on D_V." And then you switch AGAIN to this time saying nothing outside everyone's status quo. The amount of information that you have just oscillates, with a lot of sheeping... Huh. Whatever. Everybody should already have been scumreading you most if not all of this entire game.
Keep in mind that without the vote order, this would have only not gone through by 1 vote: One of you, Rhand, Shadow, AG, Brinatoo, and Proph. To me, that was perfect. Because if exactly one of those people is town, that fits perfectly with the information that I've seen in this game. And Silver, D_V, Cantrip, Vaimes, and Mindreaver were all saying about the same around that time. Maybe it's just convenient that it matched up near perfectly with my reads. But that is incredibly suspicious to me. And the fact that Proph was the least certain about voting the way they did hammers it in even more.
Yeah, no. I'm certainly not putting you on a quest. If AG defaults, then I don't think that counts as unaccepted for the purpose of the 5 unaccepted quests. I don't remember if it came up earlier... Asking @iso. If it does, well, if my quest is vetoed, then Shadow can decide the game for you and your scumbuddies, and congratulations, I guess. If it does not, then at least there's a chance that Silver can propose a winning quest instead of one of y'all.
He's my best guess for the last scum. Hasn't really done anything too townie. If I were to send a team purely based on townieness I'd go with Q3-Proph + shadow +Terry.
It's definitely a thing that Cantrip, Osi, and AG can't all be town together. There's only two town in [AG/Cantrip/Terry/Brinatoo/Osi] because there's two scum [D_V/shadow]+[Rhand/Mindreaver/Proph].
Regarding Q3's proposal, shadow voted against it unless I made a mistake in my votals. And four of the 3in5 players abstained with the fifth being the proposer.
Blegh. I want to look at the full votal but lol!merlinhunting.
Shadow and D_V are the dichotomy, but even assuming you're putting the wrong one on this quest, it's effectively Q3 + Terry, which is my top choice.
I guess the only problem would be Shadow and Terry as scum together, which I'll have to re-read a bit to weigh in on. But gut feeling is no, I don't think the team could be both of them.
Mmm. That is spicy. I'd... probably vote yes, I guess? Shadow/Terry isn't any worse than shadow/D_V unless they're scum together like Mindreaver said...
Thoughts on the game state?
@DV: What happened to you, man (if that's not too personal a thing to ask)?
Also, I read something about Seppel removing himself from the premises, Lorax-style...truth?