??? at people even considering he could still be a wolf after the hammer. i guess it's not impossible for there to be a governor type roll but generally can't post after lynch then
kinda assumed he was a pr fakeclaiming vt which was another reason I didn't want the lynch.
I thought of this, too, but figured since he was offering it up as "proof" that there were VT's in the game, he or one of his buddies were a goon, which would point to there being VTs. (Or he really is VT, in which case I'm mildly disappointed that he really thought claiming VT at that point was a good choice.)
kinda assumed he was a pr fakeclaiming vt which was another reason I didn't want the lynch.
I thought of this, too, but figured since he was offering it up as "proof" that there were VT's in the game, he or one of his buddies were a goon, which would point to there being VTs. (Or he really is VT, in which case I'm mildly disappointed that he really thought claiming VT at that point was a good choice.)
??? at people even considering he could still be a wolf after the hammer. i guess it's not impossible for there to be a governor type roll but generally can't post after lynch then
So many people just assuming that Shadow wouldn't troll is...eh...really bizarre to me. I'll go on record here and now so that people can point back to this. I will almost always troll as scum until the lynch scene unless I think it's really best to just go dark. Maybe that's me being a bad mafia player, but if I'm getting lynched as scum, that's my last chance to sow wifom and have some fun. Eh...*shrug*.
if I somehow die, think my last reads list is mostly still correct. vaimes/eco still town, vezo/LNG probably town - but keep wary eye on vezo due to claim reasons, tom/rhand thin town reads - Tom was stronger prior to the eod, but eh.
kinda think highroller is also thin town read now which is weird. cantripmancer and gj would be where I start looking d2. think riku is just a wolf
??? at people even considering he could still be a wolf after the hammer. i guess it's not impossible for there to be a governor type roll but generally can't post after lynch then
So many people just assuming that Shadow wouldn't troll is...eh...really bizarre to me. I'll go on record here and now so that people can point back to this. I will almost always troll as scum until the lynch scene unless I think it's really best to just go dark. Maybe that's me being a bad mafia player, but if I'm getting lynched as scum, that's my last chance to sow wifom and have some fun. Eh...*shrug*.
think that's suboptimal. you give town the chance to spew themselves clear or not w/w with you, especially d1 imo
think that's suboptimal. you give town the chance to spew themselves clear or not w/w with you, especially d1 imo
strictly theory, not super relevant
Eh, like I said, it would be (more) for my own amusement and (somewhat) the potential to wreak havoc with reads/night actions. If town in that situation manage to clear themselves, good on them. My job would be to ensure that doesn't happen. Plus, more interaction (in general) I see as more enjoyable. Going dark feels like lurking, which is the antithesis of fun in a game of interactions. Same reason why I try not to lurk even as a PR: keeping your head down in the hopes scum leave you alone might yield a higher win rate, but it's not going to produce a fun game. (I unfortunately sometimes lurk because real life sucks and prevents me from posting, but that's a horse of a different color.)
??? at people even considering he could still be a wolf after the hammer. i guess it's not impossible for there to be a governor type roll but generally can't post after lynch then
So many people just assuming that Shadow wouldn't troll is...eh...really bizarre to me. I'll go on record here and now so that people can point back to this. I will almost always troll as scum until the lynch scene unless I think it's really best to just go dark. Maybe that's me being a bad mafia player, but if I'm getting lynched as scum, that's my last chance to sow wifom and have some fun. Eh...*shrug*.
think that's suboptimal. you give town the chance to spew themselves clear or not w/w with you, especially d1 imo
think that's suboptimal. you give town the chance to spew themselves clear or not w/w with you, especially d1 imo
strictly theory, not super relevant
Eh, like I said, it would be (more) for my own amusement and (somewhat) the potential to wreak havoc with reads/night actions. If town in that situation manage to clear themselves, good on them. My job would be to ensure that doesn't happen. Plus, more interaction (in general) I see as more enjoyable. Going dark feels like lurking, which is the antithesis of fun in a game of interactions. Same reason why I try not to lurk even as a PR: keeping your head down in the hopes scum leave you alone might yield a higher win rate, but it's not going to produce a fun game. (I unfortunately sometimes lurk because real life sucks and prevents me from posting, but that's a horse of a different color.)
understand that in general, but post-lynch is different imo
Tom scum for not even considering guessing the shadow flip based on twilight
Eh. Ehhhhhhhhh. If I die toNight, someone please apply scrutiny here. 947 does not come from town. Either Shadow flips scum and I should NOT be in the second tier, or Shadow flips town and why the heck is he in the "just above Rhand" tier???
Tom scum for not even considering guessing the shadow flip based on twilight
Eh. Ehhhhhhhhh. If I die toNight, someone please apply scrutiny here. 947 does not come from town. Either Shadow flips scum and I should NOT be in the second tier, or Shadow flips town and why the heck is he in the "just above Rhand" tier???
cantrip scum for saying a barely changed readslist "does not come from town"
understand that in general, but post-lynch is different imo
I probably would have agreed with you up until fairly recently, but I recently reassessed why I play this game and if I'm going to continue playing, I'm going to play on my own terms, so...I'm perfectly fine agreeing to disagree.
Tom scum for not even considering guessing the shadow flip based on twilight
Eh. Ehhhhhhhhh. If I die toNight, someone please apply scrutiny here. 947 does not come from town. Either Shadow flips scum and I should NOT be in the second tier, or Shadow flips town and why the heck is he in the "just above Rhand" tier???
cantrip scum for saying a barely changed readslist "does not come from town"
Why is Shadow even on that list, eh, Tom? Like...I can't even... mrgl...
Tom scum for not even considering guessing the shadow flip based on twilight
Eh. Ehhhhhhhhh. If I die toNight, someone please apply scrutiny here. 947 does not come from town. Either Shadow flips scum and I should NOT be in the second tier, or Shadow flips town and why the heck is he in the "just above Rhand" tier???
cantrip scum for saying a barely changed readslist "does not come from town"
Why is Shadow even on that list, eh, Tom? Like...I can't even... mrgl...
I'm stating that your "read list" is crap and you're posturing. Seriously, if you had posted the exact same thing but left Shadow off, I wouldn't have questioned it at all. Are you saying your reads are the same regardless of Shadow's flip? If not, then what the flip good does it do to post them, eh?
Gah, I so want the flip, and it's probably not going to come for hours and this is agonizing.
It was dusk. Clint always liked working at night. Made job just a bit easier. Not that making problems go away was ever easy.
As he sat in his dark hotel room the Intel he had received that morning kept creeping in to his mind. There was an unsubstantiated report that he had gone rogue and was carrying out hits for the highest bidder. A load of hot garbage. Even though his work wasn't exactly legal he only ever served the US government.
As he gathered up his coat and bag the lights suddenly flicked on and the TV flickered to life. "Clint" a distorted voice proclaimed, "before you die we just wanted you to know that we know you've turned. We don't know who with or why. But we're going to hunt them down and kill them too. You should never have put yourself above Uncle Sam."
While he had run for the window the second he heard the voice he wasn't quick enough to outrun the fireball. That only works in the movies.
Shadowlancerx has died he was Clint Grimes Vanilla Town
You do the quiet work. The jobs that the president isn't supposed to know about. The ones no one is supposed to know about. It's not an easy job. It's not a safe job. It's not a pleasant job. But sometimes there are people who just don't need to be seen anymore. And you take care of them.
Final VC was
Shadow (7): Eco, Cantrip, ruma, vez, highroller, vaimes, tom
Highroller (4): Shadow, rhand, cheese, lngrr
Vez (1): GJ
It is now N1. Please do not post. N1 will last for 72 hours. Please confirm your actions by 2 hours before the deadline.
Will aim to start D2 at 4pm EST on Thursday the 31st.
Negotiations had ground to a halt. And Johan was starting to get bored. Translating the same three ideas over and over again was well below his pay grade and he had a lot on his mind.
The move against Clint had been successful but in browsing through his tech it looked like he was clean after all. "Stupid American." he spat forgetting where he sat for a moment. The Russian general was demanding more troops allowed again.
Suddenly he heard the unmistakable whine of a drone and his guts went cold. Suddenly he was running and there was gunfire everywhere. The general made a hollow noise behind him and the floor was rising up to meet him as fire spread between his shoulders.
Sleepycheesecake has died he was Johan Bondarenko Vanilla Town
A young man with a chip on his shoulder. Born in during the fall of the Soviet Union Johan became a master linguist. Able to fluently speak over 50 languages perfectly he's able to blend in and seem like a local almost anywhere in Europe.
On his body was a satellite up-link connection (watcher shot).
With 10 alive it takes 6 to secure a majority.
Deadline is on Thursday the 14th at 4pm EST.
Good luck!
Post has been edited to add full flip information that was originally and incorrectly left out.
I wouldn't have said I was super low on his list, he simply said that myself, tom, and cantrip all had wolf equity, and his top two to lynch were Riku and Highroller.
Odds Vezok is lying vs cheese being a potential vig shot?
Hi
Pretty sure we had v/v wagons and highroller is just VT.
Which would maybe make cantrips scummy eod... not scummy? Because it at least looks like he cared about the result
Not real married to that though
Im now realizing i forgot the gimmick but whatever im at work.
V/la through the weekend
And i think i want to vote vezok for now. I just dont believe the claim and think his highroller defense comes from scum 90% of the time regardless of highroller alignment
And yeah, realized after I posted that he had you semi low and was putting them in order of front page not scumminess.
Still reading through his ISO, but he seemed pretty sure on Cantrip.
Speaking of which, GJ, what are your thoughts on Cantrip?
weekends are just an awful time for me, even more so than work.
As far as cantrip goes, I need to look back at EoD shennanigans, but I still had him pretty solidly town. I think he is trying to solve the game better than most people I could give credit to, apart from myself.
Cheese felt like a weird nk choice, hence my vig speculation. Like, I was probably going into him today if he wasn't dead. I feel like he was strong town early, and then started falling off heavily mid-late game.
Hi
Pretty sure we had v/v wagons and highroller is just VT.
Which would maybe make cantrips scummy eod... not scummy? Because it at least looks like he cared about the result
Not real married to that though
Im now realizing i forgot the gimmick but whatever im at work.
V/la through the weekend
And i think i want to vote vezok for now. I just dont believe the claim and think his highroller defense comes from scum 90% of the time regardless of highroller alignment
Vez scum because i think cheese got killed for looking like a cop responding to vez fakeclaim.
Thats what i thought anyway and vezscum seems the most likely team to kill him
As promised, I spent a lot of time over night going over Rhand and his meta. Based off of his town games (Arkham Horror & Pirates), I made the following (sweepingly general) observations:
Rhand's reads are very frequently based off a single event or action, such as a reaction to a vote, or how they treat a neutral claim, or an action in line with meta or just a pure mindset, etc. While everyone does this to some extent of course, it looks to me like Rhand does it borderline exclusively where other players would look more for patterns or more in-depth rereading.
When Rhand makes a read, he tends to hold it with conviction. Whatever the reason, once Rhand has decided on a read, he holds it with confidence.
Despite that, Rhand is always on the look for events that change his opinion. As I saw this system emerging I was expecting his reads to be quite static, but actually he was fairly flexible and open - but still really only changing his opinion in response to indiviual events.
His accuracy was pretty good, which is quite surprising for this single-data-point approach. Ordinarily I would warn someone away from this kind of process (and I had a long conversation about it while mentoring KillJoy in Haiku), but Rhand got quite a lot of scum - particularly in Pirates where he was fear-killed for basically calling the whole team Day 1. This maybe shouldn't be that much of a surprise given the respect Rhand has as a Town player, but I don't think I've ever really seen it first hand before.
Despite the accuracy, it seems to have some vulnerability, both to tunneling (a townie only has to make one mistake to get railed) and to backing down on scum (mafia only has to make one good post to be let off). It can also be difficult to convince others of reads because they usually lack the volume of evidence - if the one reason isn't convincing, there usually isn't a lot else.
If I was going to go deep, I'd suggest that this style has evolved because of Rhand's general limited abillity to read and post at length, which has forced him to make decisions based on less in-depth reading of the thread, as well as getting his point across succinctly rather than writing monster posts like us analysts with more spare time.
Then I had a look at scum game on MAL, where I think he played a pretty solid game - and I don't really understand why he got lynched and lost the game other than maybe not posting as much as everyone else, but I confess I didn't read much context because MAL is a pretty horrible site to read 2500 posts that were made in the space of a month. The most salient observations are:
Rhand's town style appears pretty easy to fake. The clearest example is #1862 where he made a very familiar-looking read list with a single reason attached to each read, and I would in general expect that it's not that hard to find one reason for any read he wanted to make.
It is also worth noting that in this reads list, Rhand placed his scumbuddies in the town lean and null piles, rather than trying to push either of them as strong town reads. This suggests to me that Rhand finds it challenging to power wolf unless he can find genuninely good reasons to town read his buddies (albeit it might just be his buddies were playing too poorly to justify real town reads in this case), and would make strong town reads if he felt he had to (e.g. a town slip).
Seemed to be slightly less likely to re-evaluate reads, and there was a bit of unexpected bloodthirst, but overall I can't really say it looked much different to his town game.
So overall, I don't think the meta is really that useful in generating a read, except for maybe looking out for how open Rhand is to adjusting his reads. While that's annoying, it has given me an insight into how Rhand works as a player and what his process is, which is valuable. Also I'm operating off a very small sample size, so there might be more subtle trends that are simply not apparent.
Looking at this game then, a couple of things are standing out - the very early town reads on GJ and Cheesecake didn't have a reason attached (which is unusual), although GJ is apparently because Rhand thinks he's power. I also found it difficult to understand how Rhand initially acquired scum reads on Tom and Vezok. Vezok is especially strange because Rhand also agreed with Vezok's initial defence of Highroller. In fact, Rhand's read list in #138 (and #675) is very unusual because it's totally bare - compare to #1862 in the MAL game or #362 in Pirates, both of which have something against almost everyone. I would say the higher rate of null players is more indicative of scum than town, but also that #138 is pretty early for a Rhand list so that probably doesn't apply.
As I was writing this, I was expecting to come to a "Rhand is town, he's doing Rhand things" and to just sheep Shadow out of contrition, but I actually can't bring myself to that conclusion because Rhand is (or at least started off) being much less explicit with his reasons behind things than he usually is - as both alignments. I would poist that that is itself an unintuitive town tell because scum-Rhand clearly knows how to look like his town game, and would therefore be less likely to deviate from it. He's definitely not at the bottom of my list any more because he's definitely not Shadow's buddy (sorry Shadow), and while I think scum-Rhand would town-read Shadow for the "mind-meld", I'm not sure he would do it as enthusiastically and interactively as he did.
So, uh, Rhand moves up to my middling pile which I recognise is a fairly disappointing result for this much text. What I would like from Rhand to help me work my through this is:
A quick run down of where his mind was at #138 and how he came to those reads at the time (and what he thinks about them now in retrospect).
If he could help me understand why in this game he seems to have not justifies his reads as much as he usually does. Or if he thinks I'm just wrong and he's playing exactly how he always does.
Why he asked "@Shadow: Assuming you have a 1-shot alignment cop, who would you use it on?". Mostly for posterity, but I would like to know.
As well as my Rhand wall, I was going to post a general reads list in light of the flips (which was basically taking what I had and turning most of it upside down), but I received a truly colossal message last Night that has given me a lot to think about, so I'd rather chew that over and then post some more substantive reads.
@Eco: you know that no one knew who I was in that game on MAL, right? There was no need for me to watch my meta.
I don’t have the feeling that I am not explaining my reads well? Do you have examples of what you’re talking about?
That question at Shadow was because Shadow tends to take the lead in scumteams, and if he was scum, I wanted him to tell me who he thinks the strongest players are.
All in all respect for figuring my meta out so well, but not coming to a conclusion at all is not a good look and a continuation of what your whole game has been. You’re not taking stances and it bothers me.
@Eco: you know that no one knew who I was in that game on MAL, right? There was no need for me to watch my meta.
I did not know that no-one knew it was you, but you played to your town meta anyway so I don't think it matters.
I don’t have the feeling that I am not explaining my reads well? Do you have examples of what you’re talking about?
As I said, your lists in #138 and #675 were bereft of summary reasoning, which is why I asked you to explain the first one back to me.
That question at Shadow was because Shadow tends to take the lead in scumteams, and if he was scum, I wanted him to tell me who he thinks the strongest players are.
Not tremendously enlightening, but I wasn't really expecting it to be.
All in all respect for figuring my meta out so well, but not coming to a conclusion at all is not a good look and a continuation of what your whole game has been. You’re not taking stances and it bothers me.
I did come to a conclusion, it's just a town lean but not with enough udnerstanding of your play that I can call it a full town read. It's not what I wanted after spending all that time. It would be easy to just say "rhand looks like his town game so he's town" or "rhand's doing some weird things so he's probably scum" but I'm trying to present my entire thought process truthfully rather than just writing things off unless I'm really sure.
I feel it is unfair to say I'm not taking stances. I called LnGrrR town early, and obviously had a strong scum read on Shadow and had a town read on Tom in relation to it. I called HR town despite his scum-like behaviour, and gave Vezok a town read for his early defence of HR. And so on and so forth. I might not have said "X is 100% town game is easy" but I have instead tried to display and explain the nuance and development of my reads in detail which comes at the cost of the simplicity of certainty.
@Rhand, it is still a coin flip for me between Riku and Highroller. Those were the last two wagons. That said, I think overall Riku's play hasn't read towny at all (save one post IIRC) while HR has had small.... very small... moments of towniness.
@Vaimes, if he claims roleblock and he hasn't done anything to lynch a scum, then I am just going to assume he is lying.
@everyone,
Looking at Shadows lynch, how many scum on it and who are they?
I think at least one of HR/Riku is scum. I could see Cantrip being scum with HR or Riku, given Cantrips semi-defense of them yesterDay. If there is only one scum between HR/Riku, then Vez.
There is at least one scum on Shadows wagon.
I am not looking at Rhand/GJ too much because off wagon.
Vaimes has looked pretty towny, except for his jump on Shadow, with the reason because HR keeps repeating the same thing, that makes him town (paraphrasing, my interpretatiom). But barring reread revelations, not super concerned.
Eco has been fine. I liked his early gameplay. I think his pushes toDay will help sort him out.
Cantrip read honest to me until end of day after the lynch. Cheese's kill could be due to fear he wouldn't lay off Cantrip... or it could maybe be to implicate him. A reread will help.
Vez = claim and noting the flavorish attack on Tom.
Tom - Haven't seen maliciousness from this spot yet. Don't quite get the Vezok vote out the gate.
@Highroller, interesting comment there. "I didn't do anything with regards to a burner phone last night." Rather than just "I didn't do anything last Night."
Also, why would a cheesecake death point to you?
Fun fact! GJ and I weren't on the Shadow lynch. Do you think that there were 6 townies on that lynch?
Vote Highroller
The only way Riku can be scum is if Vezok is scum too. There is a world where scum!Vezok clears town!Riku, in order to produce WIFOM if Vez gets lynched. But I can't see a world where scum!Vezok claims scum!Riku is town...that is just too ballsy, especially because Vezok claimed cop.
So, for now, willing to trust Vez. That means the move to Shadow's lynch is likely because HR is scum. If HR was town, I don't see why they would push the Shadow lynch instead.
I sent someone a message last Night, but didn't get any from anyone else. As promised in the message I sent, this was my reads list after I reread the first half of D1 (ran out of time):
Town
tomsloger
LnGrrrR
Ecophagy
Rumanshi (Riku)
vezokpiraka
Gentleman Johnny
Vaimes
Highroller
SleepyCheesecake
Rhand Scum
@The Person I Messaged: I said I planned on starting D2 on a particular topic. In light of observations I've made thus far toDay, I'm not going to dive straight into that, but instead let everyone check in and have people talk things out first.
Going to read Cheesecakes ISO to try to get some hints about why scum might have chosen him for the NK.
Eh...this seems to be something that is said quite frequently, and I'm pretty sure I've seen it from town, so it's not necessarily scummy, but...what do you think doing this is actually going to accomplish? Like, if you go back and find one or more posts that hint at him crumbing power in some way...how does that help you solve the game? I always feel like this question is scummy because it feels like the only purpose is for the person who posts it to disingenuously say "gee whillikers, it sure is a mystery why [Nightkilled Player] was killed; I'm going to see if I can figure out why". So...how do you expect doing this to help?
@LnG & Vaimes: Leaping to Riku seems like a very basic surface level response to me. How much of this was based on Cheese's suspicion of Riku? How much on Riku being a counterwagon? Did either of you have additional reasons?
And i think i want to vote vezok for now. I just dont believe the claim and think his highroller defense comes from scum 90% of the time regardless of highroller alignment
Why are you voting the un-cc'd cop? Even thinking that his claim was as stated (2 coins), why would we EVER lynch him D2?
Why are you so certain of this? I know it's rare, but I *have* seen D1 wagons on town comprised entirely of town players. And in games bigger than this one, to boot.
I tried to watch Highroller but I was unsuccessful lol.
Well, yeah. I'm vanilla town and I didn't do anything with regards to a burner phone last night.
Why not?
I think it's 95% likely that Vez is claiming true here (that 5% is a huge ballsy move on scum!Vez's part to capitalize on an un-cc'd fake cop claim by town clearing a townie, or a really extra huger ballsy move on his part to clear a buddy), which means we likely have two confirmed town, which is not a horrible place to be in D2 at all. Updated reads list:
Town
Rumanshi (Riku)
vezokpiraka
Ecophagy - The work on Rhand he put in was hugely impressive. While not necessarily AI, I feel like scum would have found a way to come to a scum conclusion on Rhand. He needs a reread if Rhand flips scum, but even then, that feels like a LOT of work to put in to prop up a scumbuddy. There are other reasons that I'm townreading him, but this is what moved him up from my N1 reads list. tomsloger - There have been several times when it would have been easy for scum!Tom to attack a player (it would have come off as natural) and he didn't. I don't think he's scum. LnGrrrR - Similarly to Tom. If he's scum, he missed some good opportunities to attack/shade. Pretty strong townlean.
Gentleman Johnny - Generally good vibes. One thing that moved him up on my list from D1 was his post #88. Unless he's scum with LnG and defending him, it would be odd for him to label the fishing as TWTBW when two town (Shadow and I) were attacking and voting LnG. I feel like it would be pretty easy for scum to jump on the wagon at that point. Actually...I think it would be pretty tempting to jump on the wagon even if LnG was scum in case the wagon took hold. Vaimes - Nothing I can point to that is significantly scummy, but lots of little pings that feel off. Some interactions make me think that Vaimes and GJ aren't scum together. Highroller - <redacted until HR talks to me about his lack of burner phone usage> Rhand - I don't like that he said he guessed GJ's role; I think town at least tries to keep it under wraps. His 317 indicates to me that he wasn't really invested in figuring out what Shadow was talking about wrt HR in Banner Mafia, just looking for mindmeld and/or a reason to attack HR. And the posts that followed after feel really fake to me upon reread. I want to finish my reread, but I seriously have zero +town or positive notes on Rhand posts, so either he's really scummy or I'm caught in a tunnel. Scum
kinda think highroller is also thin town read now which is weird. cantripmancer and gj would be where I start looking d2. think riku is just a wolf
think that's suboptimal. you give town the chance to spew themselves clear or not w/w with you, especially d1 imo
strictly theory, not super relevant
eod being a few hours after my usual sleep time is rough, let's hammer it in a slightly less rushed fashion going forward
understand that in general, but post-lynch is different imo
I probably would have agreed with you up until fairly recently, but I recently reassessed why I play this game and if I'm going to continue playing, I'm going to play on my own terms, so...I'm perfectly fine agreeing to disagree.
What are you asking here?
Gah, I so want the flip, and it's probably not going to come for hours and this is agonizing.
As he sat in his dark hotel room the Intel he had received that morning kept creeping in to his mind. There was an unsubstantiated report that he had gone rogue and was carrying out hits for the highest bidder. A load of hot garbage. Even though his work wasn't exactly legal he only ever served the US government.
As he gathered up his coat and bag the lights suddenly flicked on and the TV flickered to life. "Clint" a distorted voice proclaimed, "before you die we just wanted you to know that we know you've turned. We don't know who with or why. But we're going to hunt them down and kill them too. You should never have put yourself above Uncle Sam."
While he had run for the window the second he heard the voice he wasn't quick enough to outrun the fireball. That only works in the movies.
Shadowlancerx has died he was Clint Grimes Vanilla Town
Final VC was
Shadow (7): Eco, Cantrip, ruma, vez, highroller, vaimes, tom
Highroller (4): Shadow, rhand, cheese, lngrr
Vez (1): GJ
It is now N1. Please do not post. N1 will last for 72 hours. Please confirm your actions by 2 hours before the deadline.
Will aim to start D2 at 4pm EST on Thursday the 31st.
Negotiations had ground to a halt. And Johan was starting to get bored. Translating the same three ideas over and over again was well below his pay grade and he had a lot on his mind.
The move against Clint had been successful but in browsing through his tech it looked like he was clean after all. "Stupid American." he spat forgetting where he sat for a moment. The Russian general was demanding more troops allowed again.
Suddenly he heard the unmistakable whine of a drone and his guts went cold. Suddenly he was running and there was gunfire everywhere. The general made a hollow noise behind him and the floor was rising up to meet him as fire spread between his shoulders.
Sleepycheesecake has died he was Johan Bondarenko Vanilla Town
With 10 alive it takes 6 to secure a majority.
Deadline is on Thursday the 14th at 4pm EST.
Good luck!
Post has been edited to add full flip information that was originally and incorrectly left out.
That Shadow wagon built up pretty quick and seemed like a classic "Oh noes need to lynch a townie" pile on by scum.
Going to read Cheesecakes ISO to try to get some hints about why scum might have chosen him for the NK.
Also, no one sent me a message. So yay money for me I guess.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Smells like a fearkill.
Vote Riku
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Also, it is 2230 here so I need to pass out or I will not make much sense.
Weird that Cheese was a VT... with a watch shot. Probably doesn't matter, just noting it.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Odds Vezok is lying vs cheese being a potential vig shot?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
The GJ way path to no lynching:
And yeah, realized after I posted that he had you semi low and was putting them in order of front page not scumminess.
Still reading through his ISO, but he seemed pretty sure on Cantrip.
Speaking of which, GJ, what are your thoughts on Cantrip?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Pretty sure we had v/v wagons and highroller is just VT.
Which would maybe make cantrips scummy eod... not scummy? Because it at least looks like he cared about the result
Not real married to that though
Im now realizing i forgot the gimmick but whatever im at work.
V/la through the weekend
And i think i want to
vote vezok for now. I just dont believe the claim and think his highroller defense comes from scum 90% of the time regardless of highroller alignment
weekends are just an awful time for me, even more so than work.
As far as cantrip goes, I need to look back at EoD shennanigans, but I still had him pretty solidly town. I think he is trying to solve the game better than most people I could give credit to, apart from myself.
Cheese felt like a weird nk choice, hence my vig speculation. Like, I was probably going into him today if he wasn't dead. I feel like he was strong town early, and then started falling off heavily mid-late game.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
@Tom, why vote Vezok today when he has to prove his claim tomorrow?
Who else is scum Tom? What scumteam makes sense with Vezok?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
I take it you aren't claiming you angled Vez?
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Thats what i thought anyway and vezscum seems the most likely team to kill him
If I was going to go deep, I'd suggest that this style has evolved because of Rhand's general limited abillity to read and post at length, which has forced him to make decisions based on less in-depth reading of the thread, as well as getting his point across succinctly rather than writing monster posts like us analysts with more spare time.
Then I had a look at scum game on MAL, where I think he played a pretty solid game - and I don't really understand why he got lynched and lost the game other than maybe not posting as much as everyone else, but I confess I didn't read much context because MAL is a pretty horrible site to read 2500 posts that were made in the space of a month. The most salient observations are:
So overall, I don't think the meta is really that useful in generating a read, except for maybe looking out for how open Rhand is to adjusting his reads. While that's annoying, it has given me an insight into how Rhand works as a player and what his process is, which is valuable. Also I'm operating off a very small sample size, so there might be more subtle trends that are simply not apparent.
Looking at this game then, a couple of things are standing out - the very early town reads on GJ and Cheesecake didn't have a reason attached (which is unusual), although GJ is apparently because Rhand thinks he's power. I also found it difficult to understand how Rhand initially acquired scum reads on Tom and Vezok. Vezok is especially strange because Rhand also agreed with Vezok's initial defence of Highroller. In fact, Rhand's read list in #138 (and #675) is very unusual because it's totally bare - compare to #1862 in the MAL game or #362 in Pirates, both of which have something against almost everyone. I would say the higher rate of null players is more indicative of scum than town, but also that #138 is pretty early for a Rhand list so that probably doesn't apply.
As I was writing this, I was expecting to come to a "Rhand is town, he's doing Rhand things" and to just sheep Shadow out of contrition, but I actually can't bring myself to that conclusion because Rhand is (or at least started off) being much less explicit with his reasons behind things than he usually is - as both alignments. I would poist that that is itself an unintuitive town tell because scum-Rhand clearly knows how to look like his town game, and would therefore be less likely to deviate from it. He's definitely not at the bottom of my list any more because he's definitely not Shadow's buddy (sorry Shadow), and while I think scum-Rhand would town-read Shadow for the "mind-meld", I'm not sure he would do it as enthusiastically and interactively as he did.
So, uh, Rhand moves up to my middling pile which I recognise is a fairly disappointing result for this much text. What I would like from Rhand to help me work my through this is:
But as a starting point, Vote Tomsloger.
That’s super annoying.
And the claim is kinda whatever because “oh no I was roleblocked” will most likely be a thing.
I don’t have the feeling that I am not explaining my reads well? Do you have examples of what you’re talking about?
That question at Shadow was because Shadow tends to take the lead in scumteams, and if he was scum, I wanted him to tell me who he thinks the strongest players are.
All in all respect for figuring my meta out so well, but not coming to a conclusion at all is not a good look and a continuation of what your whole game has been. You’re not taking stances and it bothers me.
@Lngr/Vaimes: Why Riku over others on the wagon?
@tom: why was it town v town?
Yeah lol. Of course I would get roleblocked if I claimed the real number of coins. It actually costs 1 and I investigated Riku last night. He is town.
I really need to rethink some stuff because I've been wrong on my biggest scumread.
Thanks to DNC at Heroes of the plane studios for this awesome sig and SGT_Chubbz for the awesome avy.
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I did not know that no-one knew it was you, but you played to your town meta anyway so I don't think it matters.
As I said, your lists in #138 and #675 were bereft of summary reasoning, which is why I asked you to explain the first one back to me.
Not tremendously enlightening, but I wasn't really expecting it to be.
I did come to a conclusion, it's just a town lean but not with enough udnerstanding of your play that I can call it a full town read. It's not what I wanted after spending all that time. It would be easy to just say "rhand looks like his town game so he's town" or "rhand's doing some weird things so he's probably scum" but I'm trying to present my entire thought process truthfully rather than just writing things off unless I'm really sure.
I feel it is unfair to say I'm not taking stances. I called LnGrrR town early, and obviously had a strong scum read on Shadow and had a town read on Tom in relation to it. I called HR town despite his scum-like behaviour, and gave Vezok a town read for his early defence of HR. And so on and so forth. I might not have said "X is 100% town game is easy" but I have instead tried to display and explain the nuance and development of my reads in detail which comes at the cost of the simplicity of certainty.
@Vaimes, if he claims roleblock and he hasn't done anything to lynch a scum, then I am just going to assume he is lying.
@everyone,
Looking at Shadows lynch, how many scum on it and who are they?
I think at least one of HR/Riku is scum. I could see Cantrip being scum with HR or Riku, given Cantrips semi-defense of them yesterDay. If there is only one scum between HR/Riku, then Vez.
There is at least one scum on Shadows wagon.
I am not looking at Rhand/GJ too much because off wagon.
Vaimes has looked pretty towny, except for his jump on Shadow, with the reason because HR keeps repeating the same thing, that makes him town (paraphrasing, my interpretatiom). But barring reread revelations, not super concerned.
Eco has been fine. I liked his early gameplay. I think his pushes toDay will help sort him out.
Cantrip read honest to me until end of day after the lynch. Cheese's kill could be due to fear he wouldn't lay off Cantrip... or it could maybe be to implicate him. A reread will help.
Vez = claim and noting the flavorish attack on Tom.
Tom - Haven't seen maliciousness from this spot yet. Don't quite get the Vezok vote out the gate.
@Tom, is Rhand still scum?
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Well, yeah. I'm vanilla town and I didn't do anything with regards to a burner phone last night.
I'm actually really surprised shadowlancerx got lynched. I assumed for sure that it was going to be me.
Also, why would a cheesecake death point to you?
Fun fact! GJ and I weren't on the Shadow lynch. Do you think that there were 6 townies on that lynch?
Vote Highroller
The only way Riku can be scum is if Vezok is scum too. There is a world where scum!Vezok clears town!Riku, in order to produce WIFOM if Vez gets lynched. But I can't see a world where scum!Vezok claims scum!Riku is town...that is just too ballsy, especially because Vezok claimed cop.
So, for now, willing to trust Vez. That means the move to Shadow's lynch is likely because HR is scum. If HR was town, I don't see why they would push the Shadow lynch instead.
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Club Flamingo Wins: 1!
Town
tomsloger
LnGrrrR
Ecophagy
Rumanshi (Riku)
vezokpiraka
Gentleman Johnny
Vaimes
Highroller
SleepyCheesecake
Rhand
Scum
@The Person I Messaged: I said I planned on starting D2 on a particular topic. In light of observations I've made thus far toDay, I'm not going to dive straight into that, but instead let everyone check in and have people talk things out first.
Eh...this seems to be something that is said quite frequently, and I'm pretty sure I've seen it from town, so it's not necessarily scummy, but...what do you think doing this is actually going to accomplish? Like, if you go back and find one or more posts that hint at him crumbing power in some way...how does that help you solve the game? I always feel like this question is scummy because it feels like the only purpose is for the person who posts it to disingenuously say "gee whillikers, it sure is a mystery why [Nightkilled Player] was killed; I'm going to see if I can figure out why". So...how do you expect doing this to help?
What?
@LnG & Vaimes: Leaping to Riku seems like a very basic surface level response to me. How much of this was based on Cheese's suspicion of Riku? How much on Riku being a counterwagon? Did either of you have additional reasons?
Why are you voting the un-cc'd cop? Even thinking that his claim was as stated (2 coins), why would we EVER lynch him D2?
I don't understand what you're asking Tom. Will you explain?
I approve.
Why are you so certain of this? I know it's rare, but I *have* seen D1 wagons on town comprised entirely of town players. And in games bigger than this one, to boot.
No, I think those are all poor assumptions to make, riddled with WIFOM.
Why not?
I think it's 95% likely that Vez is claiming true here (that 5% is a huge ballsy move on scum!Vez's part to capitalize on an un-cc'd fake cop claim by town clearing a townie, or a really extra huger ballsy move on his part to clear a buddy), which means we likely have two confirmed town, which is not a horrible place to be in D2 at all. Updated reads list:
Town
Rumanshi (Riku)
vezokpiraka
Ecophagy - The work on Rhand he put in was hugely impressive. While not necessarily AI, I feel like scum would have found a way to come to a scum conclusion on Rhand. He needs a reread if Rhand flips scum, but even then, that feels like a LOT of work to put in to prop up a scumbuddy. There are other reasons that I'm townreading him, but this is what moved him up from my N1 reads list.
tomsloger - There have been several times when it would have been easy for scum!Tom to attack a player (it would have come off as natural) and he didn't. I don't think he's scum.
LnGrrrR - Similarly to Tom. If he's scum, he missed some good opportunities to attack/shade. Pretty strong townlean.
Gentleman Johnny - Generally good vibes. One thing that moved him up on my list from D1 was his post #88. Unless he's scum with LnG and defending him, it would be odd for him to label the fishing as TWTBW when two town (Shadow and I) were attacking and voting LnG. I feel like it would be pretty easy for scum to jump on the wagon at that point. Actually...I think it would be pretty tempting to jump on the wagon even if LnG was scum in case the wagon took hold.
Vaimes - Nothing I can point to that is significantly scummy, but lots of little pings that feel off. Some interactions make me think that Vaimes and GJ aren't scum together.
Highroller - <redacted until HR talks to me about his lack of burner phone usage>
Rhand - I don't like that he said he guessed GJ's role; I think town at least tries to keep it under wraps. His 317 indicates to me that he wasn't really invested in figuring out what Shadow was talking about wrt HR in Banner Mafia, just looking for mindmeld and/or a reason to attack HR. And the posts that followed after feel really fake to me upon reread. I want to finish my reread, but I seriously have zero +town or positive notes on Rhand posts, so either he's really scummy or I'm caught in a tunnel.
Scum