@Cantrip
Why did Vaimes not target Tom on night 2, the night after he learned that Tom was a vig?
I already mentioned the most straightforward reason he gave, but here's a summary of our discussion about his possible N2 targets:
He played around with just double-tapping you (which I was also generally ok with, btw, but mentioned that it sounded like your role could be reasonably powerful, so if town it might be nice for it to go off. Also mentioned that you would probably be a hard sell for me to make if we wanted to maintain the facade that I was the vig since I had been town reading you so hard). We didn't discuss it much further until I claimed Vaimes' role and the thread was like "oh, two town vigs is totally possible" and then he started mentioning KCC as a possible target. He talked about resolving Chris because there was so much discussion on him at one point.
I wasn't pushing Tom as a target because a) I didn't know if Vaimes was telling the truth, and b) the math I was playing with made it seem highly likely to me that either Vaimes and Tom were both town, OR scum!Tom actually did gain his dayshot because of Az's death. I was suspicious that Vaimes wasn't even discussing the possibility, so I asked him outright. He said he thought we could get Tom lunched, but that KCC would be a lot harder to lunch because of thread opinion. He looked at wagons and hypothesized who might be scum trying to get Tom lunched (decided that KCC was more likely than Osie). He looked at 1.22 and 1.23 and said that if either Tom or Shadow were town, KCC was really really likely to be scum. I brought up Tom being a Grape counterwagon and he agreed that was another reason not to shoot Tom.
Quote from Wisp »
if we lynch a wolf today, then there is highly likely only one wolf alive tomorrow based on the size of this game, so that would be a great time to at least claim deck names, since then in a world where Cantrip is town, he can stop the nightkill, and out the last wolf, which I still think the chances of him being town are higher than him being mafia
This is a good point. I'd push for a mass deck-nameclaim toDay except if scum also have a role that cares about deck names, I'd rather both of us were restricted in target options than that we both could target whomever.
Quote from Wisp »
I like that Tom isnt trying to push this narrative that Cantrip has to be a wolf, and continues to defend him based on content, looks better for him
It's really frustrating that he's doing so, actually, because if he's town, I'm going to feel really bad about going after him when he's got such a good read on me. Of course, the paranoia is telling me that he's "figured out" that I'm town because he's scum. (Another wifom moment: scum!me who has fooled town!Tom (especially Tom!) into thinking I'm town never tries to get him lunched, especially when he's essentially vanilla.)
Chris, ftr, Vaimes also was skeptical that my results didn't explicitly confirm Tom as my target. He said his results were explicit that he targeted KCC N2. I originally didn't think that the way Proph responded to me was bad, just not as explicit. Now I'm sorta wondering if maybe Tom is acetic-ish/Godfather-ish/something? Because it does feel weird that everyone is saying they got names and confirmation back in their results and I just have "You have guessed wrong, so no action for you!"
Ive read everything though
Only thing that i really wanted to respond to was cantrip asking why im ok with being lynched and possible lylo
And the answer is i cant really do anything about it?
Like i think ive been really towny, i helped push both dead scum and probably the living ones.
Im being lynched for mechanical reasons i know to be misleading but like... clearly the simplest solution from everyone elses pov is im scum
Cant really do any more than telling yall what my flip means
Its 95% kj
I think looking at wagons from day 1 and yesterday with osi flip, last looks a bit more likely than chris for the 4th, but hopefully night actions can help with that a bit
Tom, I really don't know what to think. I'm hoping you're just trying to get us to go "oh, he's so calm and rational, he can't be scum". If I'm being played mechanically, I'm going to be really disappointed.
Thread died; does that mean we're ready to move forward with lunching Tom, or do we need to discuss further? Anyone having second thoughts on Tom?
Tom, I really don't know what to think. I'm hoping you're just trying to get us to go "oh, he's so calm and rational, he can't be scum". If I'm being played mechanically, I'm going to be really disappointed.
Thread died; does that mean we're ready to move forward with lunching Tom, or do we need to discuss further? Anyone having second thoughts on Tom?
calm and rational is definitely part of my scumgame too. Dont think it means anything here
I just iso'd your posts toDay and I feel like you're going out of your way to call me scum without outright saying so. Do you know that Tom's going to flip town?
Behaviorally, Last is scummy, KJ I’m mixed on. You have indeed given me the creeps some, and while I think you’ve had overall solid townie behavior, I can’t shake the feeling.
As far as Tom, I don’t “know” he’ll flip town, but I certainly think he will.
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Regardless, I do not see a way to not lynch Tom here. If he is not scum we have been jobbed by an weird mechanical interaction, which will be super disappointing. But I would rather that than just letting scum-Tom off because he sounds sincere. He can take it as a complement that he sounds Town when he's scum.
Vote: Tom
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Well it's not a scum post, you're just wrong about everything in life.
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Frankly I could not care less about Mancer's stupid role that doesn't make any sense and doesn't follow the mechanical rules that I know from my own role. Further I anti-care about the fact that scum KJ claims to have targeted Cantripmancer making redirecter impossible.
Grapefruit interactewd with KJ a lot like he did Az. I am keeping it simple. Screw Mancer's stupid role tbh. I am vetoing this as a good idea.
Kill KJ, if he is town then we have like 7 town power roles that can do something free of the cloud of KJ. He can't be checked. He's the play. This Tom talk is nonsense.
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Killjoy, what are your thoughts? Is Tom scum? Do you want to lunch him, or is there someone else you want to examine? It feels like you're holding your breath for a Tom lunch, which makes me very nervous.
I have a problem. If Tom flips scum, I have pretty strong reasons for thinking everyone left is town:
Axel: Town. You don't bust your hump exploring logic that results in neon flashing arrows pointing at multiple buddies. Vez: Pretty heavy town lean from the way he counterclaimed Az. Unless Az specifically said something like "I'm not going to have time to play this game so you should counterclaim me out of the box for super town pants", probably never happens. Shadow: Leaning town from his behavior/actions regarding the Az wagon and then the Grape wagon. I said if Grape flipped scum Shadow was unlikely to be scum, and I still feel that to be the case. KJ: If Tom flips scum, KJ's probably town, as saying he aceticized me (whether he actually did or not) when I was likely gunning for Tom wouldn't do Tom any favors. Possible that KJ's scum with Tom if he knew something on Tom's side was already going to mess with my results and aceticizing me wouldn't make a difference, but...probably town. If Tom flips town, then KJ is scum. Chris: If Tom flips scum, also probably town. Again, if he was scum with Tom he wouldn't have confirmed success targeting Tom without knowing if I had also tried to target Tom/been unsuccessful. If Tom flips town, he's still in the PoE. Wisp: Town lean from Az's early interaction with Syrenz. This is certainly the weakest of these reads, but I still feel like Az was attacking Syrenz, not coaching.
So as long as Tom flips scum, it's all good; he's obviously the last scum.
Not sure if this points to Tom being town (and the team is just KJ/Chris or KJ/Wisp), or if I'm horribly wrong on one of the above and desperately need to reread...which may actually have a chance of happening soon, as I'm nearing the end of a large project at work...
inb4 Tom's role is "Standard Deck of 52 Playing Cards, Neutral 1-Shot Dayvig Survivor", which would throw everything off...
Tom, if you're town, we never lose to a team with KJ. If they leave me alive, I will fight tooth and nail to lunch him toMorrow. If they kill me, everyone will know I was telling the truth, and they'll lunch KJ. I'm much more worried about combinations involving Vez and/or Shadow.
Tom, if you're town, we never lose to a team with KJ. If they leave me alive, I will fight tooth and nail to lunch him toMorrow. If they kill me, everyone will know I was telling the truth, and they'll lunch KJ. I'm much more worried about combinations involving Vez and/or Shadow.
Here's an idea: we don't lynch tom at all. I know this may seem zany, but usually when you have someone dead to the world like KJ has been for a bit he's like that for a reason.
Come on, you guys can do it. I kind of believe in you.
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I don't think Cantrip is scum here. Scum Cantrip is sinking a lot of eggs into winning the game right now. After town Tom goes down, he goes after me which might be a thing but it's risky. It goes against the time honored scum tradition of keeping options open.
Additionally on the Tom v Cantrip front, I think Tom is the more likely scum because I 1) do not think all three major washing yesterday were on town. and 2) I don't think my initial wagon was pure, and don't like his assertion that it was. The odds of all 7 people voting me being town are very low.
there is definitely merit to power wolfing today, especially if you are town and in the PoE
Currently we are at 6/2, town lynch, 5/2, nk, 4/2, then next day mafia just has to push one more mislynch and if the night kill is unable to be stopped, the game ends with a mafia win
the only reason I aint too worried is because if you are town, then tom is always a wolf, unless Cantrip is the wolf, but I'll do a hard re-evalution of that going into tomorrow
Here's an idea: we don't lynch tom at all. I know this may seem zany, but usually when you have someone dead to the world like KJ has been for a bit he's like that for a reason.
Come on, you guys can do it. I kind of believe in you.
hes dead to the world because of all the stuff on Tom, which sucks
Chris: If Tom flips scum, also probably town. Again, if he was scum with Tom he wouldn't have confirmed success targeting Tom without knowing if I had also tried to target Tom/been unsuccessful.
He wouldn't have what now? Chris targeted KCC.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Agreed, @Tom
I mean he could be a wolf!tracker for sure, but I can't see him lying about the track altogether since hes been pretty open from the start about his ability to track
@Cantrip
I mean its possible that Chris outs that information even if he's wolf buddies with Tom because there was nothing detrimental coming from it, I mean anything more detrimental to be fair, it didn't look worse till after Axelrod confirmed the accuracy of it, possibly distancing maybe? if tom is a wolf, like him and the last wolf probably are cutting their loses and spending the time trying to distance
I feel like we can't just assume anymore that people arent going to do strange things to distance themselves
Tom, if you're town, we never lose to a team with KJ. If they leave me alive, I will fight tooth and nail to lunch him toMorrow. If they kill me, everyone will know I was telling the truth, and they'll lunch KJ. I'm much more worried about combinations involving Vez and/or Shadow.
Chris: If Tom flips scum, also probably town. Again, if he was scum with Tom he wouldn't have confirmed success targeting Tom without knowing if I had also tried to target Tom/been unsuccessful.
He wouldn't have what now? Chris targeted KCC.
Sorry...he wouldn't have confirmed that KCC successfully targeted Tom.
I mean its possible that Chris outs that information even if he's wolf buddies with Tom because there was nothing detrimental coming from it, I mean anything more detrimental to be fair, it didn't look worse till after Axelrod confirmed the accuracy of it, possibly distancing maybe? if tom is a wolf, like him and the last wolf probably are cutting their loses and spending the time trying to distance
But if he's wolves with Tom, then he knows something would prevent Tom being targeted (either at all or by me). And he didn't yet know who KJ targeted, so if it was a redirect targeting me to get me away from Tom, then reporting that KCC targeted Tom, followed by KJ saying he targeted me puts Tom under tons of scrutiny (as is the case, and may yet get Tom lunched). If he knows something would prevent Tom being targeted at all, then saying KCC successfully targeted Tom results in issues if ANYONE targeted Tom, not just me.
I guess it could be a really extreme form of distancing (or maybe an attempt to discredit me?), but neither of those seem likely?
@Cantrip: I thought I alredy said all this... maybe I wasn't clear, or maybe I just didn't make a post I was going to or something.
Cantrip makes tom very likely scum. I can't see an situation where he's not. Cantrip was not messed with last night, so his results should be accurate. Therefore tom is lying about his name. Why? Dunno. But he is. No reason for him to do that as town.
It's probably not Cantrip because, while powerwolfing is possible, trying to powerwolf through two mislynches is VERY high risk. If for some reason tom talks himself out of being lynched before the game ends (entirely possible) or I just start spewing town (also possible, it's happened) and I become unlynchable somehow, then Cantrip is an outed wolf. Two-for-one or nothing is just never a good idea.
I think, if tom is scum, shadow is his most likely partner. As of today, shadow's tone/stances are getting more passive than I'm used to from him. He really has no solid opinions, and his position on my/tom is kinda just "tom is mechanically the answer, Kj I'm not sure about" but throughout today he's been trying to pull back from tom, and subsequently onto me.
@Axel: not to specifically shade Cantrip or Tom, but both are definitely more than capable of formulating a fake claim that is believable and elaborate.
I am less than confident in a Tom lynch, but I don’t see a way to get past this gamestate without one.
I’m interested in anything Tom has to say before we proceed, but otherwise I don’t think I have anything else for today.
(A small part of me thinks that cantrip’s knowledge about flavor being relevant to abilities points to him being on a team with Az, or someone else with an ability that also cares being scum.)
I’ve been having second thoughts on Tom since y’all started pressuring him days ago, but he’s the simplest mechanical answer to what’s going on.
I don’t like it, and I think it’s a miss, but I don’t have a good mechanical answer and he’s the default lynch tomorrow if we miss today.
Since the start of the day, shadow hasn't really had a hard stance on tom. Behaviorally town, mechanically not. But in the second quote, he's having second thoughts on tom being scum, like that was a thing he had some kind of longstanding opinion on that changed. Unless he's doubting the mechanics that are making him likely scum, which really has nothing to do with tom. If tom is town, either me or Cantrip are lying. He didn't DO anything except claim that he was Infect. There's nothing to doubt about tom.
It's almost like shadow is walking on eggshells trying not to get tom lynched, but not also trying to come off bad himself. He doesn't feel as uninhibited as he usually does here. Like, go reread his posts today and tell me I'm completely wrong.
Now, second most likely is Chris. I had him as green in my wagon analysis because Grape tossed his second vote on him at the of that one day. That's not 100%, and the way he's been pushing me today has irked me.
That said, there's a 0% chance scum aren't pushing me today (unless it's Cantrip, because he's busy pushing tom) so it's probably not Axel or Last. Last also seems to have become his old self again, so that's nice.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Chris could be Toms buddy. (So also could Cantrip )
So after two of my buddies got lunched D1 and D2, my D3 plan was to come out of the gate with a "Tom lied" check and push him hard? And even if that was uber-distancing that I didn't expect to actually result in Tom's lunch, my D4 plan was to...double-down with KJ's anti-interference backing me up and REALLY push for him to be the lunch? When I could just as easily have gone "oh, hey, my ability was successful N3; Tom really is Infect. Guess we have a redirector"?
I thought you could read me, Shadow. This gets you a huge .
In fact, since I've apparently destroyed my chances of lunching Tom, I think I'll just
Vote Shadow <-- There, that dismantles my buddy Tom's wagon except for lone rider Axelrod, who, coincidentally, is my other buddy.
Dear Cantrip (And kind of KJ), I want Tom lynched today because sometimes you have to fall back on mechanics as a failsafe. More than anything either of you are doing individually, I don’t want to have been wrong on Tom, and that means it’s one of you. If this wasn’t a mechanical scenario involving this grouping, I would not be having second thoughts about you (Cantrip). So no, this isn’t about reading you wrong, it’s about not wanting to have read Tom wrong and making mechanical conjectures.
Vote Tom because this needs to be today’s lynch, and I hate it but it’s necessary for solving the gamestate.
Wisp, yes, it definitely should be between KJ and Tom. I was just triggered because I really don't think Shadow seriously considers me a likely Tom buddy in this situation, so I wanted to express my suspicion, and strongly.
Vote Tom
I definitely feel like Tom's more likely than KJ, and I hope I'm right.
EWP: No matter what Tom's flip, Shadow needs to claim toMorrow. So we can learn why we're never lunching him.
I want Tom lynched today because sometimes you have to fall back on mechanics as a failsafe. More than anything either of you are doing individually, I don’t want to have been wrong on Tom.
This.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Though I will say it feels like Killjoy ought to be voting there.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
He played around with just double-tapping you (which I was also generally ok with, btw, but mentioned that it sounded like your role could be reasonably powerful, so if town it might be nice for it to go off. Also mentioned that you would probably be a hard sell for me to make if we wanted to maintain the facade that I was the vig since I had been town reading you so hard). We didn't discuss it much further until I claimed Vaimes' role and the thread was like "oh, two town vigs is totally possible" and then he started mentioning KCC as a possible target. He talked about resolving Chris because there was so much discussion on him at one point.
I wasn't pushing Tom as a target because a) I didn't know if Vaimes was telling the truth, and b) the math I was playing with made it seem highly likely to me that either Vaimes and Tom were both town, OR scum!Tom actually did gain his dayshot because of Az's death. I was suspicious that Vaimes wasn't even discussing the possibility, so I asked him outright. He said he thought we could get Tom lunched, but that KCC would be a lot harder to lunch because of thread opinion. He looked at wagons and hypothesized who might be scum trying to get Tom lunched (decided that KCC was more likely than Osie). He looked at 1.22 and 1.23 and said that if either Tom or Shadow were town, KCC was really really likely to be scum. I brought up Tom being a Grape counterwagon and he agreed that was another reason not to shoot Tom.
This is a good point. I'd push for a mass deck-nameclaim toDay except if scum also have a role that cares about deck names, I'd rather both of us were restricted in target options than that we both could target whomever.
It's really frustrating that he's doing so, actually, because if he's town, I'm going to feel really bad about going after him when he's got such a good read on me. Of course, the paranoia is telling me that he's "figured out" that I'm town because he's scum. (Another wifom moment: scum!me who has fooled town!Tom (especially Tom!) into thinking I'm town never tries to get him lunched, especially when he's essentially vanilla.)
Ive read everything though
Only thing that i really wanted to respond to was cantrip asking why im ok with being lynched and possible lylo
And the answer is i cant really do anything about it?
Like i think ive been really towny, i helped push both dead scum and probably the living ones.
Im being lynched for mechanical reasons i know to be misleading but like... clearly the simplest solution from everyone elses pov is im scum
Cant really do any more than telling yall what my flip means
Its 95% kj
I think looking at wagons from day 1 and yesterday with osi flip, last looks a bit more likely than chris for the 4th, but hopefully night actions can help with that a bit
Thread died; does that mean we're ready to move forward with lunching Tom, or do we need to discuss further? Anyone having second thoughts on Tom?
I don’t like it, and I think it’s a miss, but I don’t have a good mechanical answer and he’s the default lynch tomorrow if we miss today.
I just iso'd your posts toDay and I feel like you're going out of your way to call me scum without outright saying so. Do you know that Tom's going to flip town?
As far as Tom, I don’t “know” he’ll flip town, but I certainly think he will.
Never dont lynch in kj/chris tomorrow. Probably always lynch kj
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Regardless, I do not see a way to not lynch Tom here. If he is not scum we have been jobbed by an weird mechanical interaction, which will be super disappointing. But I would rather that than just letting scum-Tom off because he sounds sincere. He can take it as a complement that he sounds Town when he's scum.
Vote: Tom
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Grapefruit interactewd with KJ a lot like he did Az. I am keeping it simple. Screw Mancer's stupid role tbh. I am vetoing this as a good idea.
Kill KJ, if he is town then we have like 7 town power roles that can do something free of the cloud of KJ. He can't be checked. He's the play. This Tom talk is nonsense.
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It's just too much WIFOM to keep tom alive.
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Vote Count 4.3
tomsloger (3): Cantripmancer, Axelrod, vezokpiraka
Killjoy (2): tomsloger, Sir Chris
Abstain (3): shadowlancerx, Lastwhisper, Killjoy
With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
Day 4 will end at 11:59PM EST, Friday, September 27th.
.
Kj+last>kj+chris>[teams we lose to]
Most>least likely
Axel: Town. You don't bust your hump exploring logic that results in neon flashing arrows pointing at multiple buddies.
Vez: Pretty heavy town lean from the way he counterclaimed Az. Unless Az specifically said something like "I'm not going to have time to play this game so you should counterclaim me out of the box for super town pants", probably never happens.
Shadow: Leaning town from his behavior/actions regarding the Az wagon and then the Grape wagon. I said if Grape flipped scum Shadow was unlikely to be scum, and I still feel that to be the case.
KJ: If Tom flips scum, KJ's probably town, as saying he aceticized me (whether he actually did or not) when I was likely gunning for Tom wouldn't do Tom any favors. Possible that KJ's scum with Tom if he knew something on Tom's side was already going to mess with my results and aceticizing me wouldn't make a difference, but...probably town. If Tom flips town, then KJ is scum.
Chris: If Tom flips scum, also probably town. Again, if he was scum with Tom he wouldn't have confirmed success targeting Tom without knowing if I had also tried to target Tom/been unsuccessful. If Tom flips town, he's still in the PoE.
Wisp: Town lean from Az's early interaction with Syrenz. This is certainly the weakest of these reads, but I still feel like Az was attacking Syrenz, not coaching.
So as long as Tom flips scum, it's all good; he's obviously the last scum.
Not sure if this points to Tom being town (and the team is just KJ/Chris or KJ/Wisp), or if I'm horribly wrong on one of the above and desperately need to reread...which may actually have a chance of happening soon, as I'm nearing the end of a large project at work...
inb4 Tom's role is "Standard Deck of 52 Playing Cards, Neutral 1-Shot Dayvig Survivor", which would throw everything off...
Tom, if you're town, we never lose to a team with KJ. If they leave me alive, I will fight tooth and nail to lunch him toMorrow. If they kill me, everyone will know I was telling the truth, and they'll lunch KJ. I'm much more worried about combinations involving Vez and/or Shadow.
Come on, you guys can do it. I kind of believe in you.
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tonally/analytically KJ is the better lynch, tom is better mechanically
@Cantrip
you can try tomorrow based on the lynch, but like I am not worried that I will get mislynched here
there is definitely merit to power wolfing today, especially if you are town and in the PoE
Currently we are at 6/2, town lynch, 5/2, nk, 4/2, then next day mafia just has to push one more mislynch and if the night kill is unable to be stopped, the game ends with a mafia win
the only reason I aint too worried is because if you are town, then tom is always a wolf, unless Cantrip is the wolf, but I'll do a hard re-evalution of that going into tomorrow
vote kj
Cantrip makes good points. If tom is scum literally nobody makes sense as his buddy. Maybe shadow, but that's extremely doubtful.
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I’m pretty okay with a KJ lynch. Still not sure what’s going on mechanically
Think the only fail case on that is "scum with axel" which i do not believe in
I mean he could be a wolf!tracker for sure, but I can't see him lying about the track altogether since hes been pretty open from the start about his ability to track
@Cantrip
I mean its possible that Chris outs that information even if he's wolf buddies with Tom because there was nothing detrimental coming from it, I mean anything more detrimental to be fair, it didn't look worse till after Axelrod confirmed the accuracy of it, possibly distancing maybe? if tom is a wolf, like him and the last wolf probably are cutting their loses and spending the time trying to distance
I feel like we can't just assume anymore that people arent going to do strange things to distance themselves
rofl, did I just shoot my own Tom-wagon in the foot?
Sorry...he wouldn't have confirmed that KCC successfully targeted Tom.
But if he's wolves with Tom, then he knows something would prevent Tom being targeted (either at all or by me). And he didn't yet know who KJ targeted, so if it was a redirect targeting me to get me away from Tom, then reporting that KCC targeted Tom, followed by KJ saying he targeted me puts Tom under tons of scrutiny (as is the case, and may yet get Tom lunched). If he knows something would prevent Tom being targeted at all, then saying KCC successfully targeted Tom results in issues if ANYONE targeted Tom, not just me.
I guess it could be a really extreme form of distancing (or maybe an attempt to discredit me?), but neither of those seem likely?
Cantrip makes tom very likely scum. I can't see an situation where he's not. Cantrip was not messed with last night, so his results should be accurate. Therefore tom is lying about his name. Why? Dunno. But he is. No reason for him to do that as town.
It's probably not Cantrip because, while powerwolfing is possible, trying to powerwolf through two mislynches is VERY high risk. If for some reason tom talks himself out of being lynched before the game ends (entirely possible) or I just start spewing town (also possible, it's happened) and I become unlynchable somehow, then Cantrip is an outed wolf. Two-for-one or nothing is just never a good idea.
I think, if tom is scum, shadow is his most likely partner. As of today, shadow's tone/stances are getting more passive than I'm used to from him. He really has no solid opinions, and his position on my/tom is kinda just "tom is mechanically the answer, Kj I'm not sure about" but throughout today he's been trying to pull back from tom, and subsequently onto me.
See here: DOWN ARROW Since the start of the day, shadow hasn't really had a hard stance on tom. Behaviorally town, mechanically not. But in the second quote, he's having second thoughts on tom being scum, like that was a thing he had some kind of longstanding opinion on that changed. Unless he's doubting the mechanics that are making him likely scum, which really has nothing to do with tom. If tom is town, either me or Cantrip are lying. He didn't DO anything except claim that he was Infect. There's nothing to doubt about tom.
It's almost like shadow is walking on eggshells trying not to get tom lynched, but not also trying to come off bad himself. He doesn't feel as uninhibited as he usually does here. Like, go reread his posts today and tell me I'm completely wrong.
Now, second most likely is Chris. I had him as green in my wagon analysis because Grape tossed his second vote on him at the of that one day. That's not 100%, and the way he's been pushing me today has irked me.
That said, there's a 0% chance scum aren't pushing me today (unless it's Cantrip, because he's busy pushing tom) so it's probably not Axel or Last. Last also seems to have become his old self again, so that's nice.
but I guess in a world that it really is a redirect, and KJ is town, then Tom is boned either way in his mind
I thought you could read me, Shadow. This gets you a huge .
In fact, since I've apparently destroyed my chances of lunching Tom, I think I'll just
Vote Shadow <-- There, that dismantles my buddy Tom's wagon except for lone rider Axelrod, who, coincidentally, is my other buddy.
lynching outside of killjoy/tom is just dangerous imo
Vote Tom because this needs to be today’s lynch, and I hate it but it’s necessary for solving the gamestate.
Or:
YAY I GUILTED SHADOW INTO BUSSING HIS LAST BUDDY
(See what I did there?)
Wisp, yes, it definitely should be between KJ and Tom. I was just triggered because I really don't think Shadow seriously considers me a likely Tom buddy in this situation, so I wanted to express my suspicion, and strongly.
Vote Tom
I definitely feel like Tom's more likely than KJ, and I hope I'm right.
EWP: No matter what Tom's flip, Shadow needs to claim toMorrow. So we can learn why we're never lunching him.
tomsloger (3): Axelrod, shadowlancerx, Cantripmancer
Killjoy (4): tomsloger, Sir Chris, Lastwhisper, vezokpiraka
Abstain (1): Killjoy
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Tom, you’re 100% on Cantrip? Even with that role?
Dear Scum, if somehow Tom and KJ are both town, you should put your game on hard mode and kill KJ tonight.