KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Vez, why move your vote off KK (without even mentioning them), especially if you thought it strongly likely that there was one scum in Shadow/KK and Shadow was "cleared" to you? Your reasons for suspecting KK were a lot stronger than the "there's something off about Rhand. He seems to be saying the right words, but his heart doesn't seem to be in it" you leveled at Rhand.
KK wagon was going nowhere. Rhand wagon was taking off and I wanted to vote there to see what happens more than I wanted to keep my vote on KK.
Fair.
Quote from Vez »
Regarding 1163: I can't seem to find the post I was responding too. I think it was Vaimes' big post from before and I somehow mixed them up in my head.
Ok, I guess? It felt weird because I couldn't see anything that felt would lead to that response, so...ok.
Vez, you thought KK was scum, you don't like KK's response to Shadow's vote, but you're voting shadow because his vote is "egregious"? How is it egregious? It's not a read I necessarily agree with, but I can believe it's really a read Shadow makes.
What do YOU think of KK's 367/369?
I found this post which seems like a chainsaw on shadow. My intuition was right that shadow's vote came from scum. The fact that this is a small post also makes me think that it was only made to defend shadow.
Maybe I don't understand the definition of a chainsaw defense, but calling out what appears to be a mismatch in mindsets isn't defending Shadow by attacking you. "Egregious" is defined as "outstandingly bad, shocking", which told me nothing about why Shadow's vote was bad. I stand by this post.
(Actually, an aside: Megiddo, I'd like YOUR assessment of this series of posts:
@Vaimes: kinda think I want to go this direction, Vote KK
I do not like his “Tom may have dropped down to 75%, but I’m at more like 80%”, that’s awkward enough to look manufactured.
WTF is this post? Last page made me think even more that KK is scum due to his overeplaxining of stuff and that the attack on silver seems malicious and then comes shadow with this vote. It seems just so random and the fact that it's addressed to Vaimes makes this even weirder.
I don't like KK's response to it as I feel it's more indicative of scum to question naked votes, but the vote itself is too egregious to dismiss.
Vez, you thought KK was scum, you don't like KK's response to Shadow's vote, but you're voting shadow because his vote is "egregious"? How is it egregious? It's not a read I necessarily agree with, but I can believe it's really a read Shadow makes.
Vaimes, your responses to Last around 595 feel a little excessive.
Rhand wagon is very weird and way fast. +town to Rhand, imo, but I also see some comments saying speed isn't necessarily indicative; I'll have to consider those.
KJ's 647 is +town for him.
652 Wisp going after Rhand wagon naked votes/being the one to actively pursue that avenue of attack is +town for Wisp.
657 KK using logic surrounding Wisp's play in Modern without knowing specifics is +scum.
666 Vezok: Scum!Wisp making this claim would be pretty freaking ballsy (which is why I'm leaning away from scum!Wisp), but I could see town!Wisp faking a N0 check to garner reactions, possibly. I'm treating his claim as real until he tells me otherwise. I guess only way I could see scum!Wisp doing this is if scum were told "you know there's no cop in this game" (or sussed that based on their roles).
Caught up to current, thoughts are still pretty scattered, but I've seen nothing from Megiddo that makes me feel like he's town, so fine staying on him. I'd switch to Kool to prevent a no lunch. Not interested in Rhand.
Thread feels...angsty. I know we're trying to bump each other off and all, but...maybe tone it down a little?
As questions to get me re-engaged. Sorry I was afk so long. I should be able to participate regularly through Day end.
Here we have a post where Cantrip defends both dead scum. I really don't like the first line where he is chainsaw defending wisp again.
As town, I'm allowed to be wrong. You pushed away from Wisp until he flipped scum, so pot/kettle. Yeah, I can maybe see that first line being interpreted as a chainsaw, but that certainly wasn't the intent.
Quote from Vez »
Also cantrip has placed no votes except his RVS on tom and continues not to vote at all for day 1.
Good to know I'm not the only one who herp-derps on things like this. I moved from Tom to Megiddo somewhat early D1 and stayed on him until EoD.
Quote from Vez »
Day 2 starts with a vote on Wisp for a dumb post which is pretty weird considering he was defending and hard townreading last.
Spoiler: it was a good catch and a good vote. Seriously, I would NEVER ask that question as town cop/PR, and I don't think many experienced town players would, either. It practically screams "SOMEONE WHO'S MAYBE A DOC SHOULD POSTULATE THAT MAYBE I WASN'T KILLED BECAUSE SCUM WAS AVOIDING PROTECTION ROLES".
Quote from Vez »
The next post is a vote on emiko so the first post is distancing.
I'm still pretty sure you're town, so this is you tunneling. You suspecting that it might be distancing is understandable, but there's no "might be" or "could be" or "I think it's likely to be". It's just "is" distancing. It really really isn't. Did you even consider if this series of choices could have come from town!me?
On another note, I think it's highly likely that both Vezok and Emiko are town. Obviously one of them is, but...if Vezok and Wisp are buddies and Wisp says Vezok is town and Vez flips scum, then Wisp is immediately outted. Same with Emiko and KCC (maybe to a lesser degree because the unknown risk of a vig is already eliminated?). So Vez and Emiko are vaulted to the top of my town list.
I think that puts me currently at:
Emiko/Vez
KCC
Killjoy
Vaimes
Rhand/Megiddo
Wisp
I neglected to unvote Emiko last post, so
Unvote
Wisp already has plenty of votes, and I want to review KCC first, regardless.
Somehow Rhand and wisp moved from town to heavily being scumread. This is especially interesting as Cantrip defends Wisp all day and thinks his claim is probably better than KCC's.
The scum probably saw the writing on the wall and wanted to put a ton of distance between them.
I could be mistaken, but I don't think I had Rhand as "town". I'm pretty sure I didn't even really have much of anything on Rhand other than a +town because of the speed of his wagon. Yes, I had Wisp as town, but then he posted his "why wasn't I the NK" post AND KCC counterclaimed. <-- That would be the "somehow".
Quote from Vez »
Cantrip ends the day with a hammer on wisp. Seems suspicious to wait so long when he could've just hammered before. Probably hoping for some second wind as he still left the door open for a KCC vote.
Yes, I'm guilty of not speedhammering. Do you really think that town!me doesn't do the same? And there was no way KCC was getting lunched at that point. Scum!me just lolhammers earlier to try and garner some credit. Or promises the hammer and then "gets distracted" in the hope that no one else is on and we no lunch.
Quote from Vez »
This is about all I found in my reread. Another aspect I've seen is that Cantrip spends a lot of time on talking to people with the exception of Rhand and Wisp which are asked way less questions than others.
I'm sure that's true with Rhand, but I feel like I asked Wisp a lot of questions. Did you quantify that opinion, or just go off of a general feeling?
aside from mark zuckerberg being irl scum/lizard man the reason i was bringing it up was not about your specific methodology but about what your post suggested to me was your main focus at the time.
so, the “big huge thing” was obviously the counterclaim situation. that was important enough to (temporarily, at least) shift focus in the game thread for me, and i believe for others.
your post kind of just got around to it about halfway through.
it’s sort of a “missing the game flow” question for me where somebody who’s not informed would probably immediately snap to trying to sort that puzzle out, but somebody who already knows the answer might not feel the same urgency.
Ok, so my initial response still stands, then: "...taking into account that my standard posting pattern is quoting posts as I catch up and then responding (usually) in chronological order, how does this track?" Seriously, I don't break that habit very often, and when I do, it's usually to put something weighty at the BOTTOM of my post so that it's the thought I close on. If I'm going to urgent-respond to something, I'll usually just post it as a singleton response and say something like "haven't fully caught up, but I saw this and..." So why did you feel like that post made me scum?
Any thought about my post on Cantrip? Any relevant thoughts to the game at all KJ?
Thought exercise, Vez, because if you're town, you're likely going to have to go through this anyway: Say I flip town toDay and Vaimes gets NK'd. Who's scum?
I have some thoughts on Megiddo, but I'm putting them in a separate post to break things up a little.
Most of the below is things I feel are questionable or scummy. Anything highlighted in blue is something I feel is +town. I tried not to waste time on things I felt were NAI.
As I went through, I cross-referenced from my feelings on Megiddo from Day 1, and a lot of them still apply, but I've re-highlighted below any that felt particularly indicative.
RVS's KK. 2nd post he quotes Rhand's RVS, mimicking him. His indication that Shadow's/my liking of Emiko's response stinks bothered me at the time and still does; could be an attempt to tie me to Shadow. 143 is mild smear on KK, 151 is mild smear on Vaimes, 154 gives ok reasoning on 151. Am I calling him a wolf? feels hedgy.
Still don't know what to think of the eyes emoji and the explanation. It feels off, but maybe it's legit. He does push that Tom/Silver were a THUNDERDOME in that post, though, which feels like the perspective scum would want to encourage.
Ok, so 463 is huge (mostly because of the posts he quotes, but also it has more thoughts than his other posts thus far). Pushes Tom/Silver as possibly scum/scum again, starts to like KK's post but then doesn't because of the KK's vote on Silver (which he expounded on here), possibly a small mindset mismatch where he says he thinks Tom/Silver are likely scum/scum, but then attacks primarily Silver, but..eh, that probably comes from uncertain town, too. Agrees with EmikOsie's attack on KCC. Good questioning of Rhand's KK read, but Rhand also mentioned a Meg post "that almost reads like a confession", and Megiddo doesn't even mention that? Hedges on KK, scums Silver/Rhand.
Megiddo, why repeatedly mention that Tom/Silver could be scum/scum then highlight a bunch of things you didn't like about Silver but not anything on Tom?
Comments on Rhand's "confession" accusation, but still doesn't question it. Why not, Megs?
When he comes back from his trip, his first post is his observation on why KJ's likely town here. I still really like that, and it's one of the strongest indications I've seen that Megiddo could be town, especially now when there's only one scum left so there's no chance of buddying going on there.
So then we come to Rhand's wagon, which, again, is a very fast Tom-naked, Vaimes-naked, Wisp-nearly naked/bus, vote count by Bur highlighting that Rhand is now at 3 and Megiddo is next at 2, Vez-vague reasoning, [Rhand votes Vaimes], Megiddo-switches from Silver to Rhand. Either Vez or Megiddo could easily be a bus vote, but maybe less likely to come from Vez since Wisp had just voted? Eh, maybe not strongly. And Meg had previously (lightly) expressed suspicion on Rhand, so it's not out of the blue. Eh.
Well...actually, Meg's next post is him saying he's back and mostly reread stuff, which means that he was voting Rhand without any context. That feels >rand to come from a buddy than from town, even if he was already scumreading Rhand.
Megiddo, in your explanation in 912, you said you'd have to look back and see what prompted you to vote right then; did you ever look into that?
This "KCC-catch on KK good but I don't remember what it was" still feels fake. He said he was going to do a deeper dive on KK; did he follow up on this?
I think I like the sincerity in 892. Questions to KJ feel like Megiddo is actually trying to figure things out.
I think Megiddo hedges several times on KK like here. He sorta dd at the top of 869. I'll watch to see if it happens again. Two posts later he unvotes Rhand...because Silver just posted an unofficial VC and Megiddo was the only one on Rhand?
Megiddo, why unvote there?
He really pushes me on the Up to One comment, which obviously wasn't a bad read, even if scum!Shadow also used it. (Pro Tip for future games: if I'm scum with Shadow, I'm less likely to /barn his town-takes, preferring to appear more original.)
I feel like the sequence of 980-986 (ending in a vote on me) is forced, especially the "gross" indications in 986.
Megiddo, why do you feel like my 974 was a smear/discredit attempt rather than me talking out if Tom's attack was coming from town or scum? What do you think of my responses to KK and Tom that you quoted in that post now that KK has flipped town?
Not seeing much that feels overtly townie or scummy for the rest of D1. And this is exhausting, so I'm stopping for now. I'll continue on later.
Wanted to mention that while going through I saw several KJ posts that re-affirmed him as likely-town to me. Didn't quote because "I'll just do that when I review KJ" lol.
Sometimes deadline gets shorter when there's less players.
Yeah, but I thought we had closer to a week for some reason. I guess I'll do what I can with the time I have.
Given that you're my towniest town read, I'm certainly looking forward to you weighing in. Soon? I know you said something about double-shifts and other games, but...
Wait we have two days? I thought it was another week. I'm working on an interaction analysis post.
Right now I'm kinda at: Megs is scummier behaviorally, Cantrip is scummiest VCAwise. I think lynching Megs today would be a good thing. I'll reexamine and decide who'a scum if the game's not over by then. Truth be told, I'm not sure the VCA on Cantrip is like, definitive? It looks bad-ish, but not as bad as I'd like to make a conclusion on it.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Megs, Cantrip, Vaimes:
Talk to me about why this post might come from scumbuddy Vezok. In this world, she spends a whole post saying that KK is scum for reasons, but ends up voting her buddy because shadow's vote was bad.
@Vaimes: kinda think I want to go this direction, Vote KK
I do not like his “Tom may have dropped down to 75%, but I’m at more like 80%”, that’s awkward enough to look manufactured.
WTF is this post? Last page made me think even more that KK is scum due to his overeplaxining of stuff and that the attack on silver seems malicious and then comes shadow with this vote. It seems just so random and the fact that it's addressed to Vaimes makes this even weirder.
I don't like KK's response to it as I feel it's more indicative of scum to question naked votes, but the vote itself is too egregious to dismiss.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Megs, Cantrip, Vaimes:
Talk to me about why this post might come from scumbuddy Vezok. In this world, she spends a whole post saying that KK is scum for reasons, but ends up voting her buddy because shadow's vote was bad.
@Vaimes: kinda think I want to go this direction, Vote KK
I do not like his “Tom may have dropped down to 75%, but I’m at more like 80%”, that’s awkward enough to look manufactured.
WTF is this post? Last page made me think even more that KK is scum due to his overeplaxining of stuff and that the attack on silver seems malicious and then comes shadow with this vote. It seems just so random and the fact that it's addressed to Vaimes makes this even weirder.
I don't like KK's response to it as I feel it's more indicative of scum to question naked votes, but the vote itself is too egregious to dismiss.
vote shadow
This post is highly unlikely to come from scumbuddy Vez, especially when you thanked Shadow for giving you a post you could work with, KK's response to Shadow's accusation was pretty weak, and KCC had sorta agreed with Shadow. But I'm already in town!Vez world. Now I'm just trying to make sure Megiddo is scum/you're not pulling the wool over my eyes.
You highlighting this definitely reinforces my town read on you.
I'm just trying to eliminate one of the three so if we get it wrong today we can get it right tomorrow.
549 is a post that I'm currently looking at that makes me think Rhand/Meg partners. Rhand's firest read of Meg was in 433 where he says that Megs was confessing about something, but then in 549, Rhand gives townpoints to Megs three times over the course of this post: once it would appear for mindmeld over "not exactly one", then he says twice how much "better" he feels about Meg despite never really having a hard scum read on him for any real reason in the first place.
Like, look at this progression here: "Cantrip agrees with Shadow in #137 though… maybe I’m overthinking this.
Or maybe not. Megs seems to have sniffed it too in #139.
Townpoints for Megs.
Anyways, only works if Shadow is scum with Emiko. Doesn’t help me read Shadow.
Vezok making a very low-impact post in #145 is bothersome.
#148 is one of those posts that triggered my gut on Vaimes on my first readthrough.
I like Megs again beginning page 4. Especially if Vaimes is scum."
This is verbatim. There's no shift in his Megs read from start to end, but he "likes Megs again" despite never not liking him. Then the end of the post has him feeing "way better" about Megs.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Also meant to post Rhand ISO so you could see if I'm neglecting posts/taking stuff out of context. btw the "confession" post was the post he made before 549, so there's nothing else about that btween them.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Like...you're finding townie things about the player I find most townie, and scummy things about the player I find most suspicious, and then asking me (and Meg and Vaimes re: Vez, and (presumably) Vaimes and Vez re: Meg) what I think about them. How do you expect me (specifically) to respond to these posts?
I know I frequently let my paranoia have too much rein, but...???
Megs, Cantrip, Vaimes:
Talk to me about why this post might come from scumbuddy Vezok. In this world, she spends a whole post saying that KK is scum for reasons, but ends up voting her buddy because shadow's vote was bad.
@Vaimes: kinda think I want to go this direction, Vote KK
I do not like his “Tom may have dropped down to 75%, but I’m at more like 80%”, that’s awkward enough to look manufactured.
WTF is this post? Last page made me think even more that KK is scum due to his overeplaxining of stuff and that the attack on silver seems malicious and then comes shadow with this vote. It seems just so random and the fact that it's addressed to Vaimes makes this even weirder.
I don't like KK's response to it as I feel it's more indicative of scum to question naked votes, but the vote itself is too egregious to dismiss.
vote shadow
see there's a good number of posts like this that point me away from vez scum.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
I don't have that much time, but if Cantrip is somehow not scum, meg is my other pick. I'm going to try to reread him now and make up my mind about it.
I am convinced that Vaimes is town and I'd probably only entertain the idea that he is not town if we get to LyLo and he is still alive. I'd probably arrive at the same conclusions, but I'd feel bad if I didn't do my due diligence.
KJ is in a similar position although where Vaimes is 99.9% town, KJ is only around 90%. His stance on the KCC last debacle seemed very firm and I find it hard to believe a scumbuddy of Last and Rhand pushes the town to lynch Last with solid arguments.
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yes, it's true. how KJ handled the KCC thing (specifically, him taking up a pro bono defense in her absence) looks a lot like "town defending a townread" now that I know that KCC was in fact town.
strange stance to take if you are scum there. and, let's be realistic, killjoy wasn't chainsawing me or anything. he only got around to voting me toward the very end of our exchange, and at that point I can see why he would have. I do want to review because I felt like at the very end he was starting to twist things a bit, but that deserves a readback.
Cantrip and I have had a variety of similar exchanges this game. Similarly, I want to read those back.
i'm embarking on some other rereads now.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
Scumbuddies posting early interaction? Don't think so, but it caught my eye.
I'm up to the fourth page of Megs iso and there was no mention of shadow or Rhand until his Megs big post where he quotes Rhand and ask some good questions and throws a smidge of shade.
A few votes later he votes Rhand. This whole exchange doesn't feel like scumbuddies interacting, but it's worth pointing out that megs wagon was tied to Rhand so maybe they were just trying to obsfucate VCA.
He unvotes later when the KK stuff is heating up. It feels iffy. Could be scum trying to retreat from Rhand without attracting attention. The post is a naked unvote.
The first mention I found of Last is a question about why does he think he was a likely NK choice. This feels like coaching a buddy who made a bad post and trying to give an out.
In the last KCC debacle, megs appears to hold last's position and heavily attack KCC. There's a ton of effort into attacking KCC, but I can't really put this against Megs that much as I also thought KCC was scum and last town.
Despite all of that I actually started tonight with trying to look at Cantrip.
Conclusion: I don't think he's scum here? At least not as strongly as I did.
I tracked down his recent scumgames (including to MAL) and he doesn't really come off the same there as here. But I didn't get to do a full re-read of his ISO here. Short version is I'm less solid on that one than I was before earlier.
And then there are posts like this one. Megs attacked Cantrip all game and now he is suddenly having a change of heart. This is such a weird stance to take as scum.
So this has been mostly a waste of time. Megs has never interacted with Last and has only surface levels interactions with Rhand if you can even call it that. Megs whole iso is a discussion with Kj, some Vaimes and a bit of Cantrip sprinkled in there. At least now I'm convinced Megs is not a buddy with either of them /s
After this reread the most I can hold against megs is that he has not interacted with dead scum and that he heavily attacked KCC.
Cantrip on the other hand seems to play with a lot more strategy and his interactions seem a lot more like someone talking to scumbuddies, but that's maybe just because Megs doesn't have those interactions.
I thought I'd come out of this reread thinking Cantrip is the only scum possibility, but now I can't really exclude megs. Like, I'm still more certain of Cantrip being scum, but the doubt is there now.
Why is this so hard, baaaah.
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i dislike Last's posting style, so I probably completely ignored him.
I didn't learn my lesson from the previous game, which is "last is good at scum because people ignore his posts because they don't like his style"
vez, were you convinced by my KCC case or were you scumreading her beforehand? i forget.
I made my mind up before you made the case. I wasn't scumreading KCC per se, but the dichotomy between her and last needed solving and I thought she was the more likely scum. Your case just reinforced my beliefs.
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304 - I had asked two posts up what Silver thought about Tom's alignment... I believe at the time that I was still having some trouble sorting out what was what in this game (recall my "strange energy" posts as well as commentary about how people are playing a little detached). I wanted to clarify Silver's stance. 304 was me acknowledging that Silver did, actually, think that Tom was scum.
tom/silver: I was scumreading only one of them, and ~not townreading~ the other. Tom is a player I don't feel like I can read at this time. I mentioned they could be s/s only because I wanted to keep that thought in people's heads.
Actually, related to this, I was sort of hoping you'd comment on this at some point. like, it seems like an Observation you could have made. Not sure the Conclusion, but the Observation was there for you, specifically, and nobody else, to make. Unless you did and I forgot?
confession: I believe others had already asked, and until he put forth what he thought said confession was I wasn't going to waste my time. I did mention it (note the sarcasm tick marks). I did mention that because usually when somebody decides that their RVS vote was actually on scum they'll actually mention it (like "confirm rvs vote" or something to that effect). Rhand didn't.
912: no, probably not. But as I just reread the game up until this point I can tell you that at the time Rhand was a scumread, his wagon was gaining traction, and the Day needed some momentum. I saw I could put him in claim range, so I did.
i am not clear where I unvoted that you are asking about.
can you be more explicit with your last question? I have no idea what specific posts you are asking about.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
Kj is the first one that made me picture someone rubbing their hands together going "yes, dance poppets dance"
Call it a reality check. I wanted everyone to know where I was at, and to see what everyone thought. Also wanted to see if you'd argue against it, because the point of that whole thing was to try to eliminate one of you three so that tomorrow we have less viable possible scum (having one is better than 2) so that way I can focus and hopefully not get super paranoid.
Meg: Yes, I did try and incorporate that into my game this game. I still kept notes though.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
After a moment you realise that AC is nice, but even nicer is to watch others perform and actually listening to their lyrics. Other countries never let you down in Eurovision!
Cantripmancer (1): vezokpiraka
Not Voting (4): Cantripmancer, Vaimes, Killjoy, Megiddo
V/LA: -
With 5 alive, it’s 3 to lynch. Deadline is on November 3rd 21.59 GMT (~22h from this post!)
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Quote from Prophylaxis »
Also modgaming Bur setups is kind of treading down a dark path
I've been thinking a lot during the night about Cantrip. His stance before night was extremely weird and now with his post today it feels like he changed his mind on mislynching me and instead wants to focus on KJ and meg. It feels like scum testing the waters to see what he can mislynch.
Like I'm sorry, but this is a really dumb scum move and not something I think Cantrip would risk wasting his time/life with. If he can get you mislunched, why would he go through the trouble of...not doing it? What scum "changes their mind on a mislunch"? That doesn't even make sense.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Scrolling your social media live feed and lazying around in the green room has made you forgot to pay attention to the time. You suddenly jolt up when you realise that soon it's going to be your turn!
well it's definitely a hail mary. but I also am hoping it's also a brilliant hot take.
short version is that, outside of checking vezok to assure that it wasn't a gambit (which, despite everything you are about to read, is still the direction I want to go Today), I really, really didn't have a good idea of where to go:
- Cantrip: Outside of D1 I never really got the feeling that you were scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. You would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
- Killjoy: Outside of D3 I never really got the feeling that he was scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. He would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
I'm not discounting the possibilities obviously, but there may be a reason it feels like Today isn't going anywhere.
So I delved into the interaction analysis (Killjoy- did you finish yours?), which I'll present later this morning (still finishing). If you don't know, this is a thing I like to do where you go back and look at, purely numerically, who the dead scum were talking with. If you have two dead, you look for patterns. The theory is that scum are less likely to talk to each other than to town. So I was hoping to see a reasonable clear pattern pointing to Vezok.
I didn't. So I did Vezok's. And there was nothing pointing me to Last or Rhand.
Ok, head scratcher. Vezok probably not it. doesn't fit. Please note that while you are gathering numerical data to look at patterns, you by necessity have to read every single post by the people as you do it, and Vezok's didn't really stand out as too agenda-driven.
So then I was thinking. What patterns DO exist? And there was only one thing that both dead scum had in common. Both talked to Vaimes way more than anybody else. That didn't strike me as unusual the first time I was looking at that since Vaimes is top poster and he, naturally, would have talked to everybody more than anybody else. Except that Vezok's numbers didn't reflect that. so at this point I realized I would need to do the exercise for Vaimes.
Again, nothing I've said until now is actually incriminatory. But this prompted me to run the exercise on Vaimes himself. And, by virtue of a full game reread (vaimes posts in such a way that this exercise is impossible to do via ISO), I have hit on a few things that are making me question whether we should be writing him off as obvtown.
The first thing I want to point out, which I'll show with charts, is that Vaimes is a completely different persion before and after Last replaced in.
Rubric:
| = A vote, quote, or @. Talking TO a person in such a way that a response would be expected.
- = A mention or discussion. Talking ABOUT a person, often while talking TO another. Drive-by comments fall under this category.
Posts that mention all players, like T/S lists, are excluded unless they have heavy focus on just a couple of players.
As soon as Last replaces in, the three of them (last, vaimes, and rhand!) all have this quick flurry of interactions that are largely prompted by Vaimes and Last seemingly taunting each other. you can see how the relative numbers jump way up for both of them. Something of note is that KoolKoal, who was the lynch, didn't really get a ton of interaction, especially relative to those two.
This is why I said to reread the beginning of the game considering that the scum had Daychat. In review, this whole interaction looks coordinated. It would throw off exactly this kind of analysis as well as throw off anybody just observing them.
--
I've only gotten through page 25 of a vaimes-focused reread (which is midway through D2). However, if you read back you'll see that people did point this behavior out at the time. You'll also see how Vaimes appears to be hostile toward both Last and Rhand and even votes for them, but when the pressure was on backs off. Look back to when both Last and Vaimes voted for Rhand (this was when he made it to L-2) and Last unvoted, then Vaimes did too.
I'm getting pulled away to go get breakfast, but I'll post some more after I get back. Reread D1 and tell me if you see what I am seeing.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
As for massclaiming, meh? I'm assuming there's no town defensive role, and I think with all the pussyfooting toDay if there were another PR (town or scum) they would've wanted to remove themselves from the PoE.
i mean, I agree that we shouldn't hash this all out today. We don't have time. which is why I want to lynch Vezok Today. get that off of the table. Deal with you (and probably me?) tomorrow with whoever of KJ/Cantrip gets to live.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
Seeing it again, vezok's vote progression from fast Rhand wagon > tom > KK doesn't really look that scummy. I don't know why both scum (who, in my opinion, probably wouldn't be able to maintain the fakeclaim all the way to LyLo) would bus their Daychat enabler. vezok just looks like she's being pulled away by other scummy things she's seeing, rather than looking for a villager to hop onto.
And townreading one of the people most strongly pushing Last (Emiko) doesn't make sense if vezok is knowingly aligned with Last. She'd probably be more hostile about defending against Last pressure, because it's also pressure on vezok by association.
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Ok, I guess? It felt weird because I couldn't see anything that felt would lead to that response, so...ok.
My evil tactics are super effective.
Maybe I don't understand the definition of a chainsaw defense, but calling out what appears to be a mismatch in mindsets isn't defending Shadow by attacking you. "Egregious" is defined as "outstandingly bad, shocking", which told me nothing about why Shadow's vote was bad. I stand by this post.
(Actually, an aside: Megiddo, I'd like YOUR assessment of this series of posts:
As town, I'm allowed to be wrong. You pushed away from Wisp until he flipped scum, so pot/kettle. Yeah, I can maybe see that first line being interpreted as a chainsaw, but that certainly wasn't the intent.
Good to know I'm not the only one who herp-derps on things like this. I moved from Tom to Megiddo somewhat early D1 and stayed on him until EoD.
Spoiler: it was a good catch and a good vote. Seriously, I would NEVER ask that question as town cop/PR, and I don't think many experienced town players would, either. It practically screams "SOMEONE WHO'S MAYBE A DOC SHOULD POSTULATE THAT MAYBE I WASN'T KILLED BECAUSE SCUM WAS AVOIDING PROTECTION ROLES".
I'm still pretty sure you're town, so this is you tunneling. You suspecting that it might be distancing is understandable, but there's no "might be" or "could be" or "I think it's likely to be". It's just "is" distancing. It really really isn't. Did you even consider if this series of choices could have come from town!me?
I could be mistaken, but I don't think I had Rhand as "town". I'm pretty sure I didn't even really have much of anything on Rhand other than a +town because of the speed of his wagon. Yes, I had Wisp as town, but then he posted his "why wasn't I the NK" post AND KCC counterclaimed. <-- That would be the "somehow".
Yes, I'm guilty of not speedhammering. Do you really think that town!me doesn't do the same? And there was no way KCC was getting lunched at that point. Scum!me just lolhammers earlier to try and garner some credit. Or promises the hammer and then "gets distracted" in the hope that no one else is on and we no lunch.
I'm sure that's true with Rhand, but I feel like I asked Wisp a lot of questions. Did you quantify that opinion, or just go off of a general feeling?
Ok, so my initial response still stands, then: "...taking into account that my standard posting pattern is quoting posts as I catch up and then responding (usually) in chronological order, how does this track?" Seriously, I don't break that habit very often, and when I do, it's usually to put something weighty at the BOTTOM of my post so that it's the thought I close on. If I'm going to urgent-respond to something, I'll usually just post it as a singleton response and say something like "haven't fully caught up, but I saw this and..." So why did you feel like that post made me scum?
Well, yay townreads, but: why? What about how I did my VCA makes you think I'm town?
Who are you addressing here?
Thought exercise, Vez, because if you're town, you're likely going to have to go through this anyway: Say I flip town toDay and Vaimes gets NK'd. Who's scum?
I have some thoughts on Megiddo, but I'm putting them in a separate post to break things up a little.
Most of the below is things I feel are questionable or scummy. Anything highlighted in blue is something I feel is +town. I tried not to waste time on things I felt were NAI.
As I went through, I cross-referenced from my feelings on Megiddo from Day 1, and a lot of them still apply, but I've re-highlighted below any that felt particularly indicative.
RVS's KK. 2nd post he quotes Rhand's RVS, mimicking him. His indication that Shadow's/my liking of Emiko's response stinks bothered me at the time and still does; could be an attempt to tie me to Shadow. 143 is mild smear on KK, 151 is mild smear on Vaimes, 154 gives ok reasoning on 151. Am I calling him a wolf? feels hedgy.
Still don't know what to think of the eyes emoji and the explanation. It feels off, but maybe it's legit. He does push that Tom/Silver were a THUNDERDOME in that post, though, which feels like the perspective scum would want to encourage.
Megiddo, what was the purpose behind 304?
Ok, so 463 is huge (mostly because of the posts he quotes, but also it has more thoughts than his other posts thus far). Pushes Tom/Silver as possibly scum/scum again, starts to like KK's post but then doesn't because of the KK's vote on Silver (which he expounded on here), possibly a small mindset mismatch where he says he thinks Tom/Silver are likely scum/scum, but then attacks primarily Silver, but..eh, that probably comes from uncertain town, too. Agrees with EmikOsie's attack on KCC. Good questioning of Rhand's KK read, but Rhand also mentioned a Meg post "that almost reads like a confession", and Megiddo doesn't even mention that? Hedges on KK, scums Silver/Rhand.
Megiddo, why repeatedly mention that Tom/Silver could be scum/scum then highlight a bunch of things you didn't like about Silver but not anything on Tom?
Comments on Rhand's "confession" accusation, but still doesn't question it. Why not, Megs?
When he comes back from his trip, his first post is his observation on why KJ's likely town here. I still really like that, and it's one of the strongest indications I've seen that Megiddo could be town, especially now when there's only one scum left so there's no chance of buddying going on there.
So then we come to Rhand's wagon, which, again, is a very fast Tom-naked, Vaimes-naked, Wisp-nearly naked/bus, vote count by Bur highlighting that Rhand is now at 3 and Megiddo is next at 2, Vez-vague reasoning, [Rhand votes Vaimes], Megiddo-switches from Silver to Rhand. Either Vez or Megiddo could easily be a bus vote, but maybe less likely to come from Vez since Wisp had just voted? Eh, maybe not strongly. And Meg had previously (lightly) expressed suspicion on Rhand, so it's not out of the blue. Eh.
Well...actually, Meg's next post is him saying he's back and mostly reread stuff, which means that he was voting Rhand without any context. That feels >rand to come from a buddy than from town, even if he was already scumreading Rhand.
Megiddo, in your explanation in 912, you said you'd have to look back and see what prompted you to vote right then; did you ever look into that?
This "KCC-catch on KK good but I don't remember what it was" still feels fake. He said he was going to do a deeper dive on KK; did he follow up on this?
I think I like the sincerity in 892. Questions to KJ feel like Megiddo is actually trying to figure things out.
I think Megiddo hedges several times on KK like here. He sorta dd at the top of 869. I'll watch to see if it happens again. Two posts later he unvotes Rhand...because Silver just posted an unofficial VC and Megiddo was the only one on Rhand?
Megiddo, why unvote there?
He really pushes me on the Up to One comment, which obviously wasn't a bad read, even if scum!Shadow also used it. (Pro Tip for future games: if I'm scum with Shadow, I'm less likely to /barn his town-takes, preferring to appear more original.)
I feel like the sequence of 980-986 (ending in a vote on me) is forced, especially the "gross" indications in 986.
Megiddo, why do you feel like my 974 was a smear/discredit attempt rather than me talking out if Tom's attack was coming from town or scum? What do you think of my responses to KK and Tom that you quoted in that post now that KK has flipped town?
Not seeing much that feels overtly townie or scummy for the rest of D1. And this is exhausting, so I'm stopping for now. I'll continue on later.
Wanted to mention that while going through I saw several KJ posts that re-affirmed him as likely-town to me. Didn't quote because "I'll just do that when I review KJ" lol.
Carp. Deadline is in TWO DAYS???
ModBur, why do we only get five days for toDay??
Given that you're my towniest town read, I'm certainly looking forward to you weighing in. Soon? I know you said something about double-shifts and other games, but...
Right now I'm kinda at: Megs is scummier behaviorally, Cantrip is scummiest VCAwise. I think lynching Megs today would be a good thing. I'll reexamine and decide who'a scum if the game's not over by then. Truth be told, I'm not sure the VCA on Cantrip is like, definitive? It looks bad-ish, but not as bad as I'd like to make a conclusion on it.
Talk to me about why this post might come from scumbuddy Vezok. In this world, she spends a whole post saying that KK is scum for reasons, but ends up voting her buddy because shadow's vote was bad.
You highlighting this definitely reinforces my town read on you.
549 is a post that I'm currently looking at that makes me think Rhand/Meg partners. Rhand's firest read of Meg was in 433 where he says that Megs was confessing about something, but then in 549, Rhand gives townpoints to Megs three times over the course of this post: once it would appear for mindmeld over "not exactly one", then he says twice how much "better" he feels about Meg despite never really having a hard scum read on him for any real reason in the first place.
Like, look at this progression here: "Cantrip agrees with Shadow in #137 though… maybe I’m overthinking this.
Or maybe not. Megs seems to have sniffed it too in #139.
Townpoints for Megs.
Anyways, only works if Shadow is scum with Emiko. Doesn’t help me read Shadow.
Vezok making a very low-impact post in #145 is bothersome.
#148 is one of those posts that triggered my gut on Vaimes on my first readthrough.
I like Megs again beginning page 4. Especially if Vaimes is scum."
This is verbatim. There's no shift in his Megs read from start to end, but he "likes Megs again" despite never not liking him. Then the end of the post has him feeing "way better" about Megs.
Let me know what you think.
Like...you're finding townie things about the player I find most townie, and scummy things about the player I find most suspicious, and then asking me (and Meg and Vaimes re: Vez, and (presumably) Vaimes and Vez re: Meg) what I think about them. How do you expect me (specifically) to respond to these posts?
I know I frequently let my paranoia have too much rein, but...???
see there's a good number of posts like this that point me away from vez scum.
I am convinced that Vaimes is town and I'd probably only entertain the idea that he is not town if we get to LyLo and he is still alive. I'd probably arrive at the same conclusions, but I'd feel bad if I didn't do my due diligence.
KJ is in a similar position although where Vaimes is 99.9% town, KJ is only around 90%. His stance on the KCC last debacle seemed very firm and I find it hard to believe a scumbuddy of Last and Rhand pushes the town to lynch Last with solid arguments.
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strange stance to take if you are scum there. and, let's be realistic, killjoy wasn't chainsawing me or anything. he only got around to voting me toward the very end of our exchange, and at that point I can see why he would have. I do want to review because I felt like at the very end he was starting to twist things a bit, but that deserves a readback.
Cantrip and I have had a variety of similar exchanges this game. Similarly, I want to read those back.
i'm embarking on some other rereads now.
Scumbuddies posting early interaction? Don't think so, but it caught my eye.
I'm up to the fourth page of Megs iso and there was no mention of shadow or Rhand until his Megs big post where he quotes Rhand and ask some good questions and throws a smidge of shade.
A few votes later he votes Rhand. This whole exchange doesn't feel like scumbuddies interacting, but it's worth pointing out that megs wagon was tied to Rhand so maybe they were just trying to obsfucate VCA.
He unvotes later when the KK stuff is heating up. It feels iffy. Could be scum trying to retreat from Rhand without attracting attention. The post is a naked unvote.
The first mention I found of Last is a question about why does he think he was a likely NK choice. This feels like coaching a buddy who made a bad post and trying to give an out.
In the last KCC debacle, megs appears to hold last's position and heavily attack KCC. There's a ton of effort into attacking KCC, but I can't really put this against Megs that much as I also thought KCC was scum and last town.
And then there are posts like this one. Megs attacked Cantrip all game and now he is suddenly having a change of heart. This is such a weird stance to take as scum.
So this has been mostly a waste of time. Megs has never interacted with Last and has only surface levels interactions with Rhand if you can even call it that. Megs whole iso is a discussion with Kj, some Vaimes and a bit of Cantrip sprinkled in there. At least now I'm convinced Megs is not a buddy with either of them /s
After this reread the most I can hold against megs is that he has not interacted with dead scum and that he heavily attacked KCC.
Cantrip on the other hand seems to play with a lot more strategy and his interactions seem a lot more like someone talking to scumbuddies, but that's maybe just because Megs doesn't have those interactions.
I thought I'd come out of this reread thinking Cantrip is the only scum possibility, but now I can't really exclude megs. Like, I'm still more certain of Cantrip being scum, but the doubt is there now.
Why is this so hard, baaaah.
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I didn't learn my lesson from the previous game, which is "last is good at scum because people ignore his posts because they don't like his style"
vez, were you convinced by my KCC case or were you scumreading her beforehand? i forget.
did you intentionally try to incorporate the suggestion i made to you in modern spec chat in to your play this game?
I made my mind up before you made the case. I wasn't scumreading KCC per se, but the dichotomy between her and last needed solving and I thought she was the more likely scum. Your case just reinforced my beliefs.
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304 - I had asked two posts up what Silver thought about Tom's alignment... I believe at the time that I was still having some trouble sorting out what was what in this game (recall my "strange energy" posts as well as commentary about how people are playing a little detached). I wanted to clarify Silver's stance. 304 was me acknowledging that Silver did, actually, think that Tom was scum.
tom/silver: I was scumreading only one of them, and ~not townreading~ the other. Tom is a player I don't feel like I can read at this time. I mentioned they could be s/s only because I wanted to keep that thought in people's heads.
Actually, related to this, I was sort of hoping you'd comment on this at some point. like, it seems like an Observation you could have made. Not sure the Conclusion, but the Observation was there for you, specifically, and nobody else, to make. Unless you did and I forgot?
confession: I believe others had already asked, and until he put forth what he thought said confession was I wasn't going to waste my time. I did mention it (note the sarcasm tick marks). I did mention that because usually when somebody decides that their RVS vote was actually on scum they'll actually mention it (like "confirm rvs vote" or something to that effect). Rhand didn't.
912: no, probably not. But as I just reread the game up until this point I can tell you that at the time Rhand was a scumread, his wagon was gaining traction, and the Day needed some momentum. I saw I could put him in claim range, so I did.
i am not clear where I unvoted that you are asking about.
can you be more explicit with your last question? I have no idea what specific posts you are asking about.
Call it a reality check. I wanted everyone to know where I was at, and to see what everyone thought. Also wanted to see if you'd argue against it, because the point of that whole thing was to try to eliminate one of you three so that tomorrow we have less viable possible scum (having one is better than 2) so that way I can focus and hopefully not get super paranoid.
Meg: Yes, I did try and incorporate that into my game this game. I still kept notes though.
After a moment you realise that AC is nice, but even nicer is to watch others perform and actually listening to their lyrics. Other countries never let you down in Eurovision!
Cantripmancer (1): vezokpiraka
Not Voting (4): Cantripmancer, Vaimes, Killjoy, Megiddo
V/LA: -
With 5 alive, it’s 3 to lynch. Deadline is on November 3rd 21.59 GMT (~22h from this post!)
Based on behavior, I'm leaning towards voting Meg tbh. Like I'm sorry, but this is a really dumb scum move and not something I think Cantrip would risk wasting his time/life with. If he can get you mislunched, why would he go through the trouble of...not doing it? What scum "changes their mind on a mislunch"? That doesn't even make sense.
Everyone has strong reasons to not be scum, which means the last one is having a pretty good game.
The super fast Rhand wagon had both Last and vez on it. Both scum jumping on their third buddy is ~possible but not incredibly likely? Blah.
Vote vezok
I'll probably change my mind in the morning. Try not to quickhammer anyone while I sleep.
Make the case for scum vezokpiraka. I think Meg is more likely.
will elaborate in the morning.
Vote Megiddo
I think he's most likely, and I want my vote there in case I don't get back before deadline.
This is a weird game. I really hope we don't have to go to F3.
Hail Mary or brilliant hot take?
Scrolling your social media live feed and lazying around in the green room has made you forgot to pay attention to the time. You suddenly jolt up when you realise that soon it's going to be your turn!
Cantripmancer (1): vezokpiraka
vezokpiraka (1): Vaimes
Megiddo (1): Cantripmancer
Not Voting (4): Killjoy, Megiddo
V/LA: -
With 5 alive, it’s 3 to lynch. Deadline is on November 3rd 21.59 GMT (~12h from this post!)
short version is that, outside of checking vezok to assure that it wasn't a gambit (which, despite everything you are about to read, is still the direction I want to go Today), I really, really didn't have a good idea of where to go:
- Cantrip: Outside of D1 I never really got the feeling that you were scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. You would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
- Killjoy: Outside of D3 I never really got the feeling that he was scum. Could be? But it feels kind of wrong. He would have to have been playing very well as scum here.
I'm not discounting the possibilities obviously, but there may be a reason it feels like Today isn't going anywhere.
So I delved into the interaction analysis (Killjoy- did you finish yours?), which I'll present later this morning (still finishing). If you don't know, this is a thing I like to do where you go back and look at, purely numerically, who the dead scum were talking with. If you have two dead, you look for patterns. The theory is that scum are less likely to talk to each other than to town. So I was hoping to see a reasonable clear pattern pointing to Vezok.
I didn't. So I did Vezok's. And there was nothing pointing me to Last or Rhand.
Ok, head scratcher. Vezok probably not it. doesn't fit. Please note that while you are gathering numerical data to look at patterns, you by necessity have to read every single post by the people as you do it, and Vezok's didn't really stand out as too agenda-driven.
So then I was thinking. What patterns DO exist? And there was only one thing that both dead scum had in common. Both talked to Vaimes way more than anybody else. That didn't strike me as unusual the first time I was looking at that since Vaimes is top poster and he, naturally, would have talked to everybody more than anybody else. Except that Vezok's numbers didn't reflect that. so at this point I realized I would need to do the exercise for Vaimes.
Again, nothing I've said until now is actually incriminatory. But this prompted me to run the exercise on Vaimes himself. And, by virtue of a full game reread (vaimes posts in such a way that this exercise is impossible to do via ISO), I have hit on a few things that are making me question whether we should be writing him off as obvtown.
The first thing I want to point out, which I'll show with charts, is that Vaimes is a completely different persion before and after Last replaced in.
Silve |||||||||||||------
Kitty ||||||||||||-
Megid |||||||||||-
tomsl |||||||--------
Emiko |||------
Vezok |||-
sh/La ||-----
Cantr ||---
Rh/Ch ||
KoolK |--
Killj -----
^ up until Last replaces in.
Silve |||||||||||||||||||---------
Kitty ||||||||||||||||||--
sh/La ||||||||||||||----------------
Megid |||||||||||||--------
tomsl ||||||||||------------
Rh/Ch |||||||---------
Cantr |||||-----
KoolK |||----------
Emiko |||---------
Vezok |||----
Killj |-------
^ through the end of D2
Rubric:
| = A vote, quote, or @. Talking TO a person in such a way that a response would be expected.
- = A mention or discussion. Talking ABOUT a person, often while talking TO another. Drive-by comments fall under this category.
Posts that mention all players, like T/S lists, are excluded unless they have heavy focus on just a couple of players.
This is why I said to reread the beginning of the game considering that the scum had Daychat. In review, this whole interaction looks coordinated. It would throw off exactly this kind of analysis as well as throw off anybody just observing them.
--
I've only gotten through page 25 of a vaimes-focused reread (which is midway through D2). However, if you read back you'll see that people did point this behavior out at the time. You'll also see how Vaimes appears to be hostile toward both Last and Rhand and even votes for them, but when the pressure was on backs off. Look back to when both Last and Vaimes voted for Rhand (this was when he made it to L-2) and Last unvoted, then Vaimes did too.
I'm getting pulled away to go get breakfast, but I'll post some more after I get back. Reread D1 and tell me if you see what I am seeing.
Will be reading, deadline is in about seven hours, maybe six.
we have ~ 7 hours.
Seeing it again, vezok's vote progression from fast Rhand wagon > tom > KK doesn't really look that scummy. I don't know why both scum (who, in my opinion, probably wouldn't be able to maintain the fakeclaim all the way to LyLo) would bus their Daychat enabler. vezok just looks like she's being pulled away by other scummy things she's seeing, rather than looking for a villager to hop onto.
And townreading one of the people most strongly pushing Last (Emiko) doesn't make sense if vezok is knowingly aligned with Last. She'd probably be more hostile about defending against Last pressure, because it's also pressure on vezok by association.