@ZDS: No offense, but I think you’re missing another, relatively likely possibility. After Prison Block, it’s clear that you play a good scum game, and thus even if you’re town read, scum might not expect you to be protected because they wouldn’t be expected to kill you. This is doubly true if scum saw your soft claim and went for the PR kill.
It's a possibility indeed, nevertheless aiming the NK in my direction was still a risky move. Moreover, it still reflects well on people who knew me from before Prison Block.
Besides it's not like my theories point to anyone in particular. It's more of a world-building kind of thing.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
So beyond this bit of mafia theory (do i need to say again that i think its technically correct but not actually right for this game?) most of my thoughts rn are night action-y and setup-y that shouldnt be shared
Part of that is putting off worldbuilding til i actually see this flip. Im assuming its wolf tubba/town shadow, but could be wrong and gotta leave myself something to do tomorrow anyway
Anyway
~~~~~
The percentages can be argued.
But
A wolf with a strong PR is <some amount> less likely to perform a kill
Its
>risking losing your powerful roles vs a town track/watch
>putting all your eggs in one basket vs a town jk/rb
>just goes against peoples' natural reaction to split actions evenly
Obviously this isnt as meaningful as "cannot perform an action and a kill the same night" but its clearly SOMETHING
And <probably tubba, maybe shadow> is more likely a goon/weak mafia role
So from there, i was thinking about the best outcomes for today
I think we can agree that the ideal outcome, lets call it outcome A. is lynching a wolf with a strong PR
Especially, since multiple PRs outed today, whatever variant of a roleblocker/manipulative role they have
Outcome B: just lynching a wolf.
Its good. Obviously. Not as good as removing a mechanical obstacle.
Theres also a pool of roles that are shades between B and A, but for my purposes im just gonna polarize them
Outcome C: mislynching vanilla town
Not ideal, but not that bad really. Tonights actions are pretty skill and/or luck testing for the PRs in this one, but very interesting.
Outcome D: getting it wrong and mislynching town jailkeeper.
Dont think theres any doubt this is worst case scenario
Lynching tubba or shadow (tubba) likely maximizes outcome B.
Yes, my premises are not perfect and theres a chance of A as well. But it is less likely. Feel free to argue by how much, which is in all honesty a sliding scale based on whos a wolf, but yeah.
Of course the fail case here is outcome D. Which is the worst
If i were closer to 50/50 on sahdow vs tubba, this outcome would be even scarier.
Now. Lynching elsewhere very probably maximizes outcome C. Because thats how statistics work.
But it completely eliminates the horrific outcome D, and
Well
Id say it improves our chance of outcome A, but (i can admit here) only proportionally. We're objectively less likely to hit a wolf, but if we do its some amount more likely to be A over B compared to the tubba lynch thats actually going to happen
TLDR:
Lynching in tubba/shadow seems like the right, safe choice.
And it is, in fact, the path most likely to lynch a wolftoday
But its actually higher risk and lower reward
And i remain unconvinced its the path most likely to lynch all the wolvesthis game
The only actual downside to this seems to be that I stifled conversation. I don't really see a point to hunting further until this is dealt with.
I get the degree you are suffering tom but option D is in fact an option. What if it's like prison where a town PR is lynched anyway, even if we went around this dichotomy. Even if we take the high end and just believe that if we go outside an another PR is outed, we just go back to the default, now we left someone else outed. I have a feeling there is more power in this game, despite only 1 vanilla spoiled.
Dichotomy, sorry.
I just don’t think the gain is as big as you seem to think it is.
Sure, we can lynch a better PR. But that requires us to lynch mafia to start with.
And if tubba flips mafia, you’re right that his interactions won’t help us much. But we don’t have that help toDay either.
I don't understand your fixation with hitting a scum "power" role.
Like, aside from the fact there is approximately zero evidence of what the role of the scum who nominally did the kill is, who cares?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I'd even argue that there's a higher % chance that Tubba is the straight-up scum RBer and that he both RBed and killed ZDS last night, just because that would have made his claim much less risky.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I don't understand your fixation with hitting a scum "power" role.
Like, aside from the fact there is approximately zero evidence of what the role of the scum who nominally did the kill is, who cares?
id think you would care if you spent 10-15 seconds thinking about how tonight goes with wolves having a way to stop a night action.
And bull***** theres zero evidence
Its unreliable evidence but not zero
I wouldnt say its a fixation. I just think its interesting and theres not a great deal else to talk about/do that would get any sort of reaction
Ftr reactions so far have increased my townread of rhand and eliminated my townread of kj.
Rhand had a kneejerk "this is weird" reaction and then went in to questioning/arguing/figuring me out
KJ threw driveby shade with no thought
I don't understand your fixation with hitting a scum "power" role.
Like, aside from the fact there is approximately zero evidence of what the role of the scum who nominally did the kill is, who cares?
id think you would care if you spent 10-15 seconds thinking about how tonight goes with wolves having a way to stop a night action.
You are also overly concerned about what might happen tonight.
Like, worst case, scum kill a Townie. Maybe they kill a Watcher or a Jailer. This is not some kind of disaster. That seems to me like a pretty regular game of Mafia.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
You are incorrect. Tubba is 90%. I already said that.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I don't understand your fixation with hitting a scum "power" role.
Like, aside from the fact there is approximately zero evidence of what the role of the scum who nominally did the kill is, who cares?
id think you would care if you spent 10-15 seconds thinking about how tonight goes with wolves having a way to stop a night action.
You are also overly concerned about what might happen tonight.
Like, worst case, scum kill a Townie. Maybe they kill a Watcher or a Jailer. This is not some kind of disaster. That seems to me like a pretty regular game of Mafia.
i mean, its absolutely business as usual and not a disaster.
Well, option D is a disaster.
But our PRs essentially trading for mafia tubba is ~fine
Im not talking about a huge percentage swing here just absolute optimization. Especially if i was closer to 50/50 on shadow vs tubba, you can see the percentages wouldnt be that far (with 33% being =!rand and with <good reads> it shouldnt be that hard to get near that 50% for another lynch
Were clearly not doing this in this game
Would be objectively correct if actions and kills couldnt be used simultaneously
Also often right in an open setup
You are incorrect. Tubba is 90%. I already said that.
tbh, i kinda locked those percentages in awhile ago and havent thought about it much more
It might be higher
But 70/30 is already a pretty huge difference in a dichotomy. Especially when 33% is the current standin for "null"
Technically it should also probably add up to, like, 101% between the two of them. Theres no worlds where theyre both town but theres some dumb tinfoil hat worlds where theyre w/w lol
Im not going any more extreme than 75/25. That puts tubba thrice as likely to be a wolf as shadow. Thats plenty
I don't understand your fixation with hitting a scum "power" role.
Like, aside from the fact there is approximately zero evidence of what the role of the scum who nominally did the kill is, who cares?
id think you would care if you spent 10-15 seconds thinking about how tonight goes with wolves having a way to stop a night action.
And bull***** theres zero evidence
Its unreliable evidence but not zero
I wouldnt say its a fixation. I just think its interesting and theres not a great deal else to talk about/do that would get any sort of reaction
Ftr reactions so far have increased my townread of rhand and eliminated my townread of kj.
Rhand had a kneejerk "this is weird" reaction and then went in to questioning/arguing/figuring me out
KJ threw driveby shade with no thought
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
sorry what is the connection here?
Why these names
the connection is i think there is scum in these people. I am scum reading this group. axel and rhand for the big cases on ITF, vaimes axel and you because i just have a gut feeling. Shadow because i just feel like "lack of posts the first day" shadow is not a thing i have ever seen from town!shadow.
I can't be 100% correct this early, but i just feel like it's one of those. *shrug*
Regarding the ******* chicken incident:
My girlfriend owns chickens. They are adorable. One loves to sit on my shoulder and kind of nuzzles my head. So we were feeding the chickens blueberries. The chicken (named Four Piece) was sitting on my shoulder,"buckaw"ing away, when she tilted her head down and looked in my direction. I guess she thought my eye was a blueberry because next thing i know, my eye gets pecked and i feel pain.
No Permanent damage. Just annoyance at this point. Eye is blurry and goopy and i just can't keep it open for long. Progress.
Okay thats the end of page 24
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Thank you for choosing
Rodemy Pizza
It’s not the best choice, but it’s a choice nonetheless
I don't understand your use of the word Tonally. Please explain?
I think Jack's posts read very differently towards the EoD yesterday. Early on there was a weird passivity (see the oft mentioned tunnel on Umami) while at the EoD he had a bit more agency. It went from a nervous teenager public speaking for the first time to a bad door to door salesperson.
I guess to clarify:
Consistency/lack thereof of opinions/logic is unlikely to be AI. Especially depending on player. Like, maybe that would work on zds. But youre gonna have a real bad time looking for consistency in rodemy or me or something.
Inconsistency between <actions/given thoughts> and <stated reads> is a different matter
Jack keeps saying hes deep in an umami tunnel but doesnt take any actions that show that. Thats scummy.
Rodemy changing his read of me from "9 times out of 10" to not serious at all isn't
I'd grabbed this just because it's true in general but it definitely applies to Tubba here. Claimed to be a JK but didn't think the missing kill was a big deal as Axel noticed.
Anyway if this clears Shadow and ZDS that is absolutely excellent because I was probably never going to have a really hard time getting there on either of them.
@ZDS The list comparing everyone to basketball players was really just for Tom, but yours was meant with nothing but respect. An all timer coming back to a slightly different game in a very different circumstance. No real comparison to your style just the circumstances.
Anyway the gist of it was he was pushing both Wisp and Umami at one point using the actually gross imagery of "rolling around each other’s mouths". He nakedly voted Rhand at the start of toDay and that's the main things he's done. I'm inclined to town block all of ZDS, Shadow, Umami, Wisp, and GJ if Tubba does flip here.
Anyway the gist of it was he was pushing both Wisp and Umami at one point using the actually gross imagery of "rolling around each other’s mouths". He nakedly voted Rhand at the start of toDay and that's the main things he's done. I'm inclined to town block all of ZDS, Shadow, Umami, Wisp, and GJ if Tubba does flip here.
Do you have a "vs. Shadow" section in there or did you literally just ISO tubba?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
i was proud of it
Jordan on the wizards is clearly iso (the invitational was his last season with the bulls)
have you caught up on today?
Im being James harden
I skimmed everything and read a fair bit of the reaction to GJ's claim. The dueling claims are never t/t and tubba looks so much worse (Shadow would win the WIM either way but town!Tubba would have some sort of personality rather than just being mechanical).
And you're definitely Harden'ing though I don't know if you meant it the same way I do (theorycrafting the ideal way for GJ to handle it while posting up a storm).
@KJ I haven't ISO'd shadow because I'm pretty sure it's just Tubba. His everything since GJ's claim is just limp, all of his playfulness is gone (for example using jokey names).
@KJ I haven't ISO'd shadow because I'm pretty sure it's just Tubba. His everything since GJ's claim is just limp, all of his playfulness is gone (for example using jokey names).
You're pretty confident in that. Do you know Tubba's meta that well?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
You're pretty confident in that. Do you know Tubba's meta that well?
I mean I don't think I can read him from meta alone but I've seen him get run up wrongly enough to know that he doesn't just role over as town. And reading his ISO there is a noticeable change in tone after GJ dunks him. He's also more or less vanished since flavor claiming which isn't inspiring confidence. I'm not expecting mountains of walling and legacy reads but I'd expect sassiness, confidence, and something beyond "I think it’s very unlikely this is a four way town fest."
Anyway @KJ Why aren't you confident? What makes you think that Tubba is town here? Beyond general uncertainty. Like I get tom's stated desire for 3>2 and wanting to go for the high upside play but I'm not following your resistance here.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Part of that is putting off worldbuilding til i actually see this flip. Im assuming its wolf tubba/town shadow, but could be wrong and gotta leave myself something to do tomorrow anyway
Anyway
~~~~~
The percentages can be argued.
But
A wolf with a strong PR is <some amount> less likely to perform a kill
Its
>risking losing your powerful roles vs a town track/watch
>putting all your eggs in one basket vs a town jk/rb
>just goes against peoples' natural reaction to split actions evenly
Obviously this isnt as meaningful as "cannot perform an action and a kill the same night" but its clearly SOMETHING
And <probably tubba, maybe shadow> is more likely a goon/weak mafia role
So from there, i was thinking about the best outcomes for today
I think we can agree that the ideal outcome, lets call it outcome A. is lynching a wolf with a strong PR
Especially, since multiple PRs outed today, whatever variant of a roleblocker/manipulative role they have
Outcome B: just lynching a wolf.
Its good. Obviously. Not as good as removing a mechanical obstacle.
Theres also a pool of roles that are shades between B and A, but for my purposes im just gonna polarize them
Outcome C: mislynching vanilla town
Not ideal, but not that bad really. Tonights actions are pretty skill and/or luck testing for the PRs in this one, but very interesting.
Outcome D: getting it wrong and mislynching town jailkeeper.
Dont think theres any doubt this is worst case scenario
Lynching tubba or shadow (tubba) likely maximizes outcome B.
Yes, my premises are not perfect and theres a chance of A as well. But it is less likely. Feel free to argue by how much, which is in all honesty a sliding scale based on whos a wolf, but yeah.
Of course the fail case here is outcome D. Which is the worst
If i were closer to 50/50 on sahdow vs tubba, this outcome would be even scarier.
Now. Lynching elsewhere very probably maximizes outcome C. Because thats how statistics work.
But it completely eliminates the horrific outcome D, and
Well
Id say it improves our chance of outcome A, but (i can admit here) only proportionally. We're objectively less likely to hit a wolf, but if we do its some amount more likely to be A over B compared to the tubba lynch thats actually going to happen
TLDR:
Lynching in tubba/shadow seems like the right, safe choice.
And it is, in fact, the path most likely to lynch a wolf today
But its actually higher risk and lower reward
And i remain unconvinced its the path most likely to lynch all the wolves this game
ITF(9): KJ, ZDS, Rhand, GJ, shadow, Last, Vaimes, rod, JackLast (1): Tubba
Tubba (1): Umami
Jack (1): Grape
shadow (1): tom
Not Voting (3): Sloth,
ITF, AxelNot much wagon to analyze, but i would say having <all> or <zero> wolves on ITF would be pretty surprising
If its 2 on wagon, 2 off...
Id comfortably put my money on tubba/sloth offwagon
I get the degree you are suffering tom but option D is in fact an option. What if it's like prison where a town PR is lynched anyway, even if we went around this dichotomy. Even if we take the high end and just believe that if we go outside an another PR is outed, we just go back to the default, now we left someone else outed. I have a feeling there is more power in this game, despite only 1 vanilla spoiled.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Yes thats always a risk when lynching. I doubt it could get much worse though. And its less likely with presumably few unouted roles.
And thats still lower risk than mislynching town jk
I just don’t think the gain is as big as you seem to think it is.
Sure, we can lynch a better PR. But that requires us to lynch mafia to start with.
And if tubba flips mafia, you’re right that his interactions won’t help us much. But we don’t have that help toDay either.
Like, aside from the fact there is approximately zero evidence of what the role of the scum who nominally did the kill is, who cares?
0 in <zds/gj/umami>
Which means most likely 3 wolves in the remaining 9 slots
So =!rand is getting pretty high actually
Just those 9:
grape/rhand
vaimes/kj/axel/rod
sloth/jack/last
And bull***** theres zero evidence
Its unreliable evidence but not zero
I wouldnt say its a fixation. I just think its interesting and theres not a great deal else to talk about/do that would get any sort of reaction
Ftr reactions so far have increased my townread of rhand and eliminated my townread of kj.
Rhand had a kneejerk "this is weird" reaction and then went in to questioning/arguing/figuring me out
KJ threw driveby shade with no thought
Like, worst case, scum kill a Townie. Maybe they kill a Watcher or a Jailer. This is not some kind of disaster. That seems to me like a pretty regular game of Mafia.
Tubba 70%
Sloth 45%
Jack 45%
Last 40%
KJ 35%
Vaimes 33%
Shadow 30%
Axel 25%
Rod 25%
Rhand 20%
Grape 15%
Umami 5%
GJ 1%
ZDS <1%
Well, option D is a disaster.
But our PRs essentially trading for mafia tubba is ~fine
Im not talking about a huge percentage swing here just absolute optimization. Especially if i was closer to 50/50 on shadow vs tubba, you can see the percentages wouldnt be that far (with 33% being =!rand and with <good reads> it shouldnt be that hard to get near that 50% for another lynch
Were clearly not doing this in this game
Would be objectively correct if actions and kills couldnt be used simultaneously
Also often right in an open setup
Here... meh
It might be higher
But 70/30 is already a pretty huge difference in a dichotomy. Especially when 33% is the current standin for "null"
Technically it should also probably add up to, like, 101% between the two of them. Theres no worlds where theyre both town but theres some dumb tinfoil hat worlds where theyre w/w lol
Im not going any more extreme than 75/25. That puts tubba thrice as likely to be a wolf as shadow. Thats plenty
the connection is i think there is scum in these people. I am scum reading this group. axel and rhand for the big cases on ITF, vaimes axel and you because i just have a gut feeling. Shadow because i just feel like "lack of posts the first day" shadow is not a thing i have ever seen from town!shadow.
I can't be 100% correct this early, but i just feel like it's one of those. *shrug*
Regarding the ******* chicken incident:
My girlfriend owns chickens. They are adorable. One loves to sit on my shoulder and kind of nuzzles my head. So we were feeding the chickens blueberries. The chicken (named Four Piece) was sitting on my shoulder,"buckaw"ing away, when she tilted her head down and looked in my direction. I guess she thought my eye was a blueberry because next thing i know, my eye gets pecked and i feel pain.
No Permanent damage. Just annoyance at this point. Eye is blurry and goopy and i just can't keep it open for long. Progress.
Okay thats the end of page 24
I now imagine you as a pirate with a chicken instead of a parrot.
So that was just your scumreads then?
I dont think i understand why youd say it that way
He means my meta case
For posterity
Tubba (5): ZDS, GJ, shadow, Rhand, jack
Sloth (1): tom
Axel (1): Sloth
Vaimes (1): Rodemy
shadow (1): Tubba
Jack (1): Umami
Not Voting (5): Grape, Vaimes, Last, KJ, Axel
Not sure what yall are waiting for this day is now mostly chickens
1 week + 2 hours to deadline
Ill be over here on this solo wagon continuing to make my point
I think Jack's posts read very differently towards the EoD yesterday. Early on there was a weird passivity (see the oft mentioned tunnel on Umami) while at the EoD he had a bit more agency. It went from a nervous teenager public speaking for the first time to a bad door to door salesperson.
Also hope your eye gets better soon!
I'd grabbed this just because it's true in general but it definitely applies to Tubba here. Claimed to be a JK but didn't think the missing kill was a big deal as Axel noticed.
Anyway if this clears Shadow and ZDS that is absolutely excellent because I was probably never going to have a really hard time getting there on either of them.
@ZDS The list comparing everyone to basketball players was really just for Tom, but yours was meant with nothing but respect. An all timer coming back to a slightly different game in a very different circumstance. No real comparison to your style just the circumstances.
I thought Rodman but went Sheed for the deeper cut. Plus Rod feels like a ball don't lie type.
Anyway Imagine I had post the Chickens attacking Link from OoT gif here.
no thanks needed
Fun.
Anyway the gist of it was he was pushing both Wisp and Umami at one point using the actually gross imagery of "rolling around each other’s mouths". He nakedly voted Rhand at the start of toDay and that's the main things he's done. I'm inclined to town block all of ZDS, Shadow, Umami, Wisp, and GJ if Tubba does flip here.
Ohhhh that's a good one. Actually fits his style and is the same archetype.
Jordan on the wizards is clearly iso (the invitational was his last season with the bulls)
have you caught up on today?
Im being James harden
I skimmed everything and read a fair bit of the reaction to GJ's claim. The dueling claims are never t/t and tubba looks so much worse (Shadow would win the WIM either way but town!Tubba would have some sort of personality rather than just being mechanical).
And you're definitely Harden'ing though I don't know if you meant it the same way I do (theorycrafting the ideal way for GJ to handle it while posting up a storm).
@KJ I haven't ISO'd shadow because I'm pretty sure it's just Tubba. His everything since GJ's claim is just limp, all of his playfulness is gone (for example using jokey names).
Not really sure what we’re waiting for at thieves point, especially with long twilights.
vote: Tubba
squawk
I mean I don't think I can read him from meta alone but I've seen him get run up wrongly enough to know that he doesn't just role over as town. And reading his ISO there is a noticeable change in tone after GJ dunks him. He's also more or less vanished since flavor claiming which isn't inspiring confidence. I'm not expecting mountains of walling and legacy reads but I'd expect sassiness, confidence, and something beyond "I think it’s very unlikely this is a four way town fest."
Roll over
Anyway @KJ Why aren't you confident? What makes you think that Tubba is town here? Beyond general uncertainty. Like I get tom's stated desire for 3>2 and wanting to go for the high upside play but I'm not following your resistance here.