I mean, as mentioned before, it IS kind of undeniably a big oof.
Anak actually raises a good point in saying that it's a good way to explain jumping onto his wagon. (Does that make Anak not scum? Nope.)
Like, as somoene who HR spent nearly 4 day on top of, if the solution was that easy, aren't you at least a bit curious as to why it happened now, in the year of our lord Day 4?
not really
unlike others, I am not worried about Highroller's alignment, He is town to me
Actually can you talk to me about Vaimes'? If you've gone over it already I've forgotten, just tell me the post#.
I am never going to ISO you this game.
I still think this is town!Vaimes, and regardless of Anak's alignment, I think he is focusing on the wrong things, at this stage in the game
Mechanically, I believe people are easily not claiming parts of their roles, which is the reason why I dropped the whole Bur is probably confirmed town because of his role being provable
Like I don't think vaimes as a wolf, is hedging on Anak even if they are wolves together or he isn't a wolf at all, it just seems like town paranoia to me
other thoughts include Tubba's terrible reaction to Cuth's vote, while being aggravated over apparent blanket votes on them, when they didn't even have votes on them.
Anak still looks bad regardless of if he lied intentionally or not by playing this pity party on day which is easily mylo
like Cuth/Anak/Tubba, is pretty much where I want to execute today
Anak's vote isn't doing anything here
I fully admit that Vaimes is perhaps the one player I'm just plain terrible at reading I hate him so.
But it's not like I want to focus on him toDay with barely over a day left in D4.
I know we're literally talking about a pikachu meme (lol) but what did you find so terrible about it? To me it was pretty inoffensive (and made me laugh.)
Agreed on his reaction to the votes.
@Cuth so should I just assume you're ignoring me, or...?
SLOTH!!!!
Not especially, I don't know. My ideal situation might be to just yeet one of the og wits but have wisp not on the wagon and then have him kill the other so we guaranteed get a wolf if we think that's a thing, but I don't know if enough people are around to coordinate that.
I fully admit that Vaimes is perhaps the one player I'm just plain terrible at reading I hate him so.
But it's not like I want to focus on him toDay with barely over a day left in D4.
I know we're literally talking about a pikachu meme (lol) but what did you find so terrible about it? To me it was pretty inoffensive (and made me laugh.)
Agreed on his reaction to the votes.
Agreed on Anak.
I find it terrible because in comparison to their reactions in regards to one vote, which they may have not known of, or assumed more, to their reaction to an even more blanket vote just doesn't sit right with me at all
@Cuth so should I just assume you're ignoring me, or...?
SLOTH!!!!
Not especially, I don't know. My ideal situation might be to just yeet one of the og wits but have wisp not on the wagon and then have him kill the other so we guaranteed get a wolf if we think that's a thing, but I don't know if enough people are around to coordinate that.
I mean that I've asked you questions you just haven't answered or even acknowledged.
bessie: can you give a couple post numbers where Vaimes is doing that?
Also is the reason you're suspicious of it because you're scum reading cuth or is there something in the way that Vaimes is doing it?
Here’s some D4 posts that I find suspicious, looking at the progression. Vaimes starts out with a vote on Cuth with a caveat that it’s just to provoke him to post.
if Cuth is a wolf, then Boom has to be a wolf with him, he is the only other vanillaish role, that could afford to hold the night KP? correct?
@Vaimes
unless someone is just straight-up lying about their role
ah **** I keep forgetting about that
This vote is more an invitation to defend himself instead of having me do it for him, and to explain his Night actions.
god is Anak mafia? Because like what the ****, this PoE makes no sense to me.
Clearing Tammy and KJ based on behavior. If anyone other than KJ claimed a double vote that had never actually been used, I'd probably steamroll them. Like his claim is actually making my skin crawl, but goddamn it if he isn't one of my strongest townreads.
Clearing Sloth because Tammy is alive, hasn't been blocked, and hasn't been announcing her targets to Sloth.
I guessssss maybe remove Cuth/Boom? Cuth is wine incarnate but I can't bring myself to keep squeezing him for anything, any hint of gamesolving. Boom's had ok posts toDay.
I don't like this, because I can't clear both Bur and Highroller unless there's another neutral out there, or the scumteam is small to compensate for town having WEAK ABILITIES.
I wish I could completely wipe away my memories of this game and start over fresh.
I am trying to townread Cuth with peace in my heart. I think Highroller is fine, just saw how much more cooperative he was in Ghostbusters and got excited that maybe he wasn't town this time.
I’ve posted pings I’ve had from Vaimes since I’ve joined the game on D2, and he was on my short list. Skimming my posts, the early pings were because of what I thought was a forced defense of Tammy. And there were some other pings, you can iso my posts.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
A-hem.
Vaimes, are we reading the same game? Despite his current situation, there's been resistance and alternatives to an Anak yeet that have been pushed forward all freaking Day, to the point I have noticed, and you know how little I give a ***** about other people.
In what world do you see this as the yeet just being "de factor" i.e. "people just allowing it to happen" / "generally accepted" ///// "Cool with scum?"
I'm serious, you've been saying a lot of bs toDay specially, but this is the ghost with the most. Explain yourself.
Ok, why on god's green earth do I have three separate people making noise at me about something so obvious.
Just because there's a vote spread doesn't mean Anak isn't the de-facto wagon. He is, and has been, every since people started linking him to Azrael. Az died hard-defending Anak, and we spent most of the time after that going "but is Anak actually town tho?" Do you think we're going to consolidate somewhere else?
nah I'm good, it's very easy question to answer, unless the answer is no one, I can't remember. I can add Tubba to the list, but I need to iso you after work to see where u have been pushing, because I remember a lot of thoughts and NAI Vaimes behavior
A-hem.
Vaimes, are we reading the same game? Despite his current situation, there's been resistance and alternatives to an Anak yeet that have been pushed forward all freaking Day, to the point I have noticed, and you know how little I give a ***** about other people.
In what world do you see this as the yeet just being "de factor" i.e. "people just allowing it to happen" / "generally accepted" ///// "Cool with scum?"
I'm serious, you've been saying a lot of bs toDay specially, but this is the ghost with the most. Explain yourself.
Ok, why on god's green earth do I have three separate people making noise at me about something so obvious.
Just because there's a vote spread doesn't mean Anak isn't the de-facto wagon. He is, and has been, every since people started linking him to Azrael. Az died hard-defending Anak, and we spent most of the time after that going "but is Anak actually town tho?" Do you think we're going to consolidate somewhere else?
but why does that make you question his alignment?
nah I'm good, it's very easy question to answer, unless the answer is no one, I can't remember. I can add Tubba to the list, but I need to iso you after work to see where u have been pushing, because I remember a lot of thoughts and NAI Vaimes behavior
It's actually a very mudsling-y question that's phrased to imply you already think I haven't pushed anyone. If it were a literal, what has Vaimes pushed?, you would have just ISO'd me.
not to mention that your Seinen comments have kinda killed any and all desire to take any sort of read-related risks. I'd rather let you push something and be wrong for once, since you're so perfect.
Anyway, now that I've gotten the bitterness out of my system, I'm slotting Cuth as town. I like the Wit-kill proposal, and he's probably only scum if all the OG Wits happen to be town [because Wit was rolled after alignments or something].
Honestly based on the fact that Wit can spread, I suspect there doesn't necessarily have to be x amount of scum in the list at all. The longer the game goes on, the more scum could end up with it. It's kind of impossible to verify, but if I'm right I want recognition.
@Cuth so should I just assume you're ignoring me, or...?
SLOTH!!!!
Not especially, I don't know. My ideal situation might be to just yeet one of the og wits but have wisp not on the wagon and then have him kill the other so we guaranteed get a wolf if we think that's a thing, but I don't know if enough people are around to coordinate that.
I mean that I've asked you questions you just haven't answered or even acknowledged.
yes, because they're either things I've explained already or things that require a lot of work to explain
which doesn't look like it's going to happen today
A-hem.
Vaimes, are we reading the same game? Despite his current situation, there's been resistance and alternatives to an Anak yeet that have been pushed forward all freaking Day, to the point I have noticed, and you know how little I give a ***** about other people.
In what world do you see this as the yeet just being "de factor" i.e. "people just allowing it to happen" / "generally accepted" ///// "Cool with scum?"
I'm serious, you've been saying a lot of bs toDay specially, but this is the ghost with the most. Explain yourself.
Ok, why on god's green earth do I have three separate people making noise at me about something so obvious.
Just because there's a vote spread doesn't mean Anak isn't the de-facto wagon. He is, and has been, every since people started linking him to Azrael. Az died hard-defending Anak, and we spent most of the time after that going "but is Anak actually town tho?" Do you think we're going to consolidate somewhere else?
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
wisp, vaimes is town because he's been keeping village on track this game
the issue is that the village core has been like three or four people this entire time at most
wolf vaimes just doesn't care as much about getting things right past d1 as vaimes has shown d2 on
that's it
look at the people who are pushing vaimes and tell me what you think of them, knowing that there have to be at least three non-vaimes wolves
I never said I was wavering, I do like his paranioa, I'm just trying to make sure we are correct here, even tho both Anak and Tubba are in my poe, them being a wit plays a part for me, and I am assuming that the wit modifier was completely random, and am in no way, using it to scum read either Tubba or Anak
Ok, so I spoke to Grapefruit to clarify this. He's confirmed that, for the purposes of the town win condition, if a hostile party is no longer in the game for whatever reason, that counts as "eliminated."
You couldn't have clarified this Day 1?
In fairness, any of you guys could have asked him the same question as well, you know.
Honest to God, I can't make a better case for HR to be scum than this. This entire time he was operating off an assumption, then decided to confirm it four days into the game? Like why? What made him do that now?
Probably for the same reason none of you asked Grape the same question.
What HR needed was an excuse to vote me, because he wants to push through my yeet so they win. Also I'm basically the only one calling HR scum at the moment, so he's also trying to head that off at the same time.
I never needed an excuse to vote you. I'm the one person who's been suspicious of you consistently.
Here's another fun question, does anyone know what HR thinks about players not named Snake or Wisp? Probably not much, and then ask yourself is that normal for town at this point in the game?
You haven't even read my posts, and you're going to complain that you don't know what I'm thinking and act like it's my fault?
I posted my top six choices for lynch yesterday. And are you seriously going to act like my being suspicious of you is this great mystery? After yesterday?
I never said I was wavering, I do like his paranioa,
Vaimes explicitly stated he's not mafia-reading anybody. That's not so much paranoid as it is the exact opposite of it, and frankly, it's rather suspicious at this point, because how are you ambivalent on everyone?
I'll have to look back in the thread, but it also calls into question whether people are expressing suspicion of Tubba for his lack of reads and pushes but at the same time letting Vaimes go despite the same thing happening.
wisp, vaimes is town because he's been keeping village on track this game
the issue is that the village core has been like three or four people this entire time at most
wolf vaimes just doesn't care as much about getting things right past d1 as vaimes has shown d2 on
that's it
look at the people who are pushing vaimes and tell me what you think of them, knowing that there have to be at least three non-vaimes wolves
I never said I was wavering, I do like his paranioa, I'm just trying to make sure we are correct here, even tho both Anak and Tubba are in my poe, them being a wit plays a part for me, and I am assuming that the wit modifier was completely random, and am in no way, using it to scum read either Tubba or Anak
i understand that, but you're also giving the actual wolves fuel to push him
If there was any reasonable way to assume that was cuth vaimes was talking to then the roleblocked might be real and they might have been protecting bur?
I don’t want to assume too much about the existence of the roleblocker, but I did check if we’d get our bit refunded if roleblocked and as long as I understand the response properly we do.
So you're thinking the RB, if they exist, can only be Vaimes (maybe Bur)?
I don't think Vaimes mentions Cuth at all in any of his hints, nor does he actually acknowledge the existence of a vig (beyond his 'imma shoot this guy' comments).
Also, you're doing fine. I'm glad you didn't replace out. The content you're giving despite your situation is as solid as the rest of us honestly.
You're coming on the second week right? That usually means you're almost out of the woods! Good luck!
No, I was trying to identify how many people knew or could have deduced that cuth skilled vaimes because Vaimes’ end of day “don’t touch bur” meant that vaimes knew someone who could take vit/was the vig.
I’ve been trying to work out how likely his claim is because his play really wasn’t really vig like and we haven’t had evidence of a role blocker so far, and why would they have roleblocked cuth.
But his refunding of the vit for being roleblocked checks out. And someone recognized vaimes statement at the end of the day to mean that he knew the vig/ vit thief then they would have had to narrow down who skilled vaimes. If it was public that cuth skilled vaimes yesterday then never mind on my rabbit hole but if it wasn’t public then the people who knew look suspicious.
Where bur came into it was that I couldn’t remember if bur knew about cuth and vaimes statement at end of day signified that bur was in danger maybe.
I am wondering about a Bessie/bur partnership in that yesterday I mentioned to bur that I hadn’t really reassessed Bessie and I thought she was getting written off as town a little too easily for suspecting me when she first came in. I had kinda gut read her as town and not thought about it but not really gone past that. Bur thought she should be reassessed but not yesterday, and then today in bessies read list she did the same with bur in which she said she suspected bur until neighborhood and is less suspicious but won’t vote there today. Bessie had gotten after me at the beginning of the game for wanting a neighborhood because she claimed I should be able to talk in the game, so I guess I find it odd that she’s less suspicious of bur for talking more in the neighborhood, and I’m concerned they’re doing that “I suspect my partner but don’t want to vote them today” dance.
I’m not sure what to do about that thought because bur did know I was the doc and did not roleblock me or kill me, so I’m not sure if that above thought even makes sense.
Thanks! I am starting to feel better but I’m in this weird stage of feeling a little better one day for a while and crappy the next.
Lots of speculation incoming. In the absence of actual reads, I'm turning to the votecount for guidance. All of this relies on Cuth/Tammy/KJ/Bur townreads, but for the initial premise only Tammy/KJ townreads are super relevant going into Night. The others can be debated on Day 5 if we make it that far.
If Tubba is a villager, the mafia are probably evenly split between the two top wagons, whether or not you include Cuth in your scumreads: a group of 8 on the main wagon, and a group of 6 off-wagon that are all unflipped. I'd be surprised if the entire team was parked on Azrael/off Tubba [and in that world I think Tubba is more likely mafia, because maybe he has a really strong role and scum absolutely do not want to bus], which means I think if we kill in Anak/BoomFrog, we have high chances of hitting 1, maybe 2 mafia. My feelings about Anak are a mess but with all the controversey, I don't feel like I can be sure about defending him.
ToDay is probably 7 1 4. Let's go through the best-, wost-, and middle-case scenarios. I'm not going to rely on us voting out Anak to get rid of Wisp, because Cuth will probably be blocked again to prevent us from solving with his kill. I imagine Wisp will only be blocked if Anak is mafia.
Worst: BoomFrog/Anak are both town. We kill BoomFrog and go into Night with 6 1 4. Assuming Wisp is successful with killing Anak and leaving the game, we're at 5 4. It's complicated [for me] to play out scenarios here because mafia can't block both Cuth and Tammy, and they're gambling on whether or not to give Cuth a chance to hit mafia OR for Tammy to block the NK. We probably lose in this world because too many dead villagers and unknown variables.
Best: BoomFrog/Anak are both mafia. Kill BoomFrog, Night is 6 1 3. Wisp nabs Anak, 6 2. NK probably goes through, 5 2. IF Cuth kills mafia, Day starts at 5 1. We're in a great spot, whether it's 5 2 or 5 1.
Middle: There's one mafia in BoomFrog/Anak. After they both die, Night is 6 3. Blah blah vig shenanigans, vit shenanigans, NK shenanigans. This still isn't awful, we're only really in a bad spot if Cuth and Sloth kill villagers in addition to the NK.
Sorry if this is confusing, but tl;dr I think BoomFrog is the best yeet, and Anak can be resolved via Wisp unless anyone thinks Boom and Anak are both villagers. If there's something wrong with my scenarios, let's talk about it. I'm aware you can't really plan for much in a closed setup but what else is there to do at this point.
Sadly yeeting Anak is not as elegant because Boom has claimed more than 1 wit, otherwise I'd just sick both Sloth/Cuth on him because mafia can't block both.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but for the vit drains we have
Night 1: Highroller only
Night 2: GJ only
Night 3: Highroller and BoomFrog
If Night 3 was the first instance of two people claiming it, a possible and simple explanation is that Sloth/BoomFrog are just scum together. Otherwise scum would have to be using their vit drain on their NK targets but randomly decided to target a living person on Night 3. And I don't think BoomFrog's role is such a threat that they needed to steal from him.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but for the vit drains we have
Night 1: Highroller only
Night 2: GJ only
Night 3: Highroller and BoomFrog
If Night 3 was the first instance of two people claiming it, a possible and simple explanation is that Sloth/BoomFrog are just scum together. Otherwise scum would have to be using their vit drain on their NK targets but randomly decided to target a living person on Night 3. And I don't think BoomFrog's role is such a threat that they needed to steal from him.
Yeah the highroller night one and three are the ones unaccounted for.
I’ve been trying to figure out what to make of that.
Actually that makes no sense because Highroller is alive so never mind.
Anyway, Sloth being a vit stealer but taking no action the same Night that there was only one claim of vit being stolen is sus. If there's a town and a scum version of the role, scum had to have targeted Rhand Night 1 and Silver Night 2. Possible, but why switch from stealing NK targets' vitality to stealing Highroller's?
I don't actually like typing this because Sloth has played a good game if he's mafia, and he was a townread Azrael felt strongly about. The fact that I'm not penciling in a Sloth/Boom/Anak/bessie team fills me with great shame.
[This specific team because there are arguments to be had about Highroller and Tubba being more likely villagers, and it doesn't leave much room for anything else unless you want to argue about Bur and Cuth.]
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but for the vit drains we have
Night 1: Highroller only
Night 2: GJ only
Night 3: Highroller and BoomFrog
If Night 3 was the first instance of two people claiming it, a possible and simple explanation is that Sloth/BoomFrog are just scum together. Otherwise scum would have to be using their vit drain on their NK targets but randomly decided to target a living person on Night 3. And I don't think BoomFrog's role is such a threat that they needed to steal from him.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but for the vit drains we have
Night 1: Highroller only
Night 2: GJ only
Night 3: Highroller and BoomFrog
If Night 3 was the first instance of two people claiming it, a possible and simple explanation is that Sloth/BoomFrog are just scum together. Otherwise scum would have to be using their vit drain on their NK targets but randomly decided to target a living person on Night 3. And I don't think BoomFrog's role is such a threat that they needed to steal from him.
I got drained n2 as well.
Well, I think I did anyway. I lost a vit and have no idea why.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but for the vit drains we have
Night 1: Highroller only
Night 2: GJ only
Night 3: Highroller and BoomFrog
If Night 3 was the first instance of two people claiming it, a possible and simple explanation is that Sloth/BoomFrog are just scum together. Otherwise scum would have to be using their vit drain on their NK targets but randomly decided to target a living person on Night 3. And I don't think BoomFrog's role is such a threat that they needed to steal from him.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Night 1: Highroller was stolen from, but Sloth didn't target anyone
Night 2: Sloth targeted and killed GJ, apparently you were targeted as well by someone else
Night 3: Sloth targeted BoomFrog, someone else targeted Highroller
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but for the vit drains we have
Night 1: Highroller only
Night 2: GJ only
Night 3: Highroller and BoomFrog
If Night 3 was the first instance of two people claiming it, a possible and simple explanation is that Sloth/BoomFrog are just scum together. Otherwise scum would have to be using their vit drain on their NK targets but randomly decided to target a living person on Night 3. And I don't think BoomFrog's role is such a threat that they needed to steal from him.
Anyway, now that I've gotten the bitterness out of my system, I'm slotting Cuth as town. I like the Wit-kill proposal, and he's probably only scum if all the OG Wits happen to be town [because Wit was rolled after alignments or something].
You’re town reading Cuth what a surprise. [/sarcasm]
@Cuth so should I just assume you're ignoring me, or...?
SLOTH!!!!
Not especially, I don't know. My ideal situation might be to just yeet one of the og wits but have wisp not on the wagon and then have him kill the other so we guaranteed get a wolf if we think that's a thing, but I don't know if enough people are around to coordinate that.
I mean that I've asked you questions you just haven't answered or even acknowledged.
yes, because they're either things I've explained already or things that require a lot of work to explain
which doesn't look like it's going to happen today
You’re not going to answer questions today what a surprise. [/sarcasm]
I am wondering about a Bessie/bur partnership in that yesterday I mentioned to bur that I hadn’t really reassessed Bessie and I thought she was getting written off as town a little too easily for suspecting me when she first came in. I had kinda gut read her as town and not thought about it but not really gone past that. Bur thought she should be reassessed but not yesterday, and then today in bessies read list she did the same with bur in which she said she suspected bur until neighborhood and is less suspicious but won’t vote there today. Bessie had gotten after me at the beginning of the game for wanting a neighborhood because she claimed I should be able to talk in the game, so I guess I find it odd that she’s less suspicious of bur for talking more in the neighborhood, and I’m concerned they’re doing that “I suspect my partner but don’t want to vote them today” dance.
I feel a little better about Bur because I was able to get some info, like some reasons for his reads, that he wasn’t putting in the thread. Because I am always suspicious when someone makes a read they can’t or won’t explain. But I don’t have chat with Bur today so I would need to see that info in the thread. As far as me getting town read for suspecting Tammy, I have said many times myself, I had no meta knowledge of Tammy before this game and read no other games on this forum. I didn’t even know what forum the game was on when I agreed to replace. It’s very frustrating to be still explaining on page 80 that I read through the game and made my opening post notes in isolation with no forum or player meta knowledge (except the two players I have played with on other forums), I was just noting stuff that pinged me. And I’m suspicious of anyone that still refuses to look at this from my point of view, and what I, a newbie to this forum, might have been pinged by, and keeps sticking on ‘well it’s TAMMY”.
I will be here in the morning and probably can arrange to be here at deadline.
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unlike others, I am not worried about Highroller's alignment, He is town to me
Actually can you talk to me about Vaimes'? If you've gone over it already I've forgotten, just tell me the post#.
I am never going to ISO you this game.
Mechanically, I believe people are easily not claiming parts of their roles, which is the reason why I dropped the whole Bur is probably confirmed town because of his role being provable
Like I don't think vaimes as a wolf, is hedging on Anak even if they are wolves together or he isn't a wolf at all, it just seems like town paranoia to me
other thoughts include Tubba's terrible reaction to Cuth's vote, while being aggravated over apparent blanket votes on them, when they didn't even have votes on them.
Anak still looks bad regardless of if he lied intentionally or not by playing this pity party on day which is easily mylo
like Cuth/Anak/Tubba, is pretty much where I want to execute today
Anak's vote isn't doing anything here
But it's not like I want to focus on him toDay with barely over a day left in D4.
I know we're literally talking about a pikachu meme (lol) but what did you find so terrible about it? To me it was pretty inoffensive (and made me laugh.)
Agreed on his reaction to the vote
s.Agreed on Anak.
Not especially, I don't know. My ideal situation might be to just yeet one of the og wits but have wisp not on the wagon and then have him kill the other so we guaranteed get a wolf if we think that's a thing, but I don't know if enough people are around to coordinate that.
I mean that I've asked you questions you just haven't answered or even acknowledged.
Here’s some D4 posts that I find suspicious, looking at the progression. Vaimes starts out with a vote on Cuth with a caveat that it’s just to provoke him to post.
I’ve posted pings I’ve had from Vaimes since I’ve joined the game on D2, and he was on my short list. Skimming my posts, the early pings were because of what I thought was a forced defense of Tammy. And there were some other pings, you can iso my posts.
He's just not playing like is expect him to.
Just because there's a vote spread doesn't mean Anak isn't the de-facto wagon. He is, and has been, every since people started linking him to Azrael. Az died hard-defending Anak, and we spent most of the time after that going "but is Anak actually town tho?" Do you think we're going to consolidate somewhere else?
I asked it because I am not able to iso right now, and I want to see what others bring up
yes, because they're either things I've explained already or things that require a lot of work to explain
which doesn't look like it's going to happen today
the issue is that the village core has been like three or four people this entire time at most
wolf vaimes just doesn't care as much about getting things right past d1 as vaimes has shown d2 on
that's it
look at the people who are pushing vaimes and tell me what you think of them, knowing that there have to be at least three non-vaimes wolves
I did answer that question. I'm not townreading anybody.
Probably for the same reason none of you asked Grape the same question.
I never needed an excuse to vote you. I'm the one person who's been suspicious of you consistently.
You haven't even read my posts, and you're going to complain that you don't know what I'm thinking and act like it's my fault?
I posted my top six choices for lynch yesterday. And are you seriously going to act like my being suspicious of you is this great mystery? After yesterday?
I'll have to look back in the thread, but it also calls into question whether people are expressing suspicion of Tubba for his lack of reads and pushes but at the same time letting Vaimes go despite the same thing happening.
No, I was trying to identify how many people knew or could have deduced that cuth skilled vaimes because Vaimes’ end of day “don’t touch bur” meant that vaimes knew someone who could take vit/was the vig.
I’ve been trying to work out how likely his claim is because his play really wasn’t really vig like and we haven’t had evidence of a role blocker so far, and why would they have roleblocked cuth.
But his refunding of the vit for being roleblocked checks out. And someone recognized vaimes statement at the end of the day to mean that he knew the vig/ vit thief then they would have had to narrow down who skilled vaimes. If it was public that cuth skilled vaimes yesterday then never mind on my rabbit hole but if it wasn’t public then the people who knew look suspicious.
Where bur came into it was that I couldn’t remember if bur knew about cuth and vaimes statement at end of day signified that bur was in danger maybe.
I am wondering about a Bessie/bur partnership in that yesterday I mentioned to bur that I hadn’t really reassessed Bessie and I thought she was getting written off as town a little too easily for suspecting me when she first came in. I had kinda gut read her as town and not thought about it but not really gone past that. Bur thought she should be reassessed but not yesterday, and then today in bessies read list she did the same with bur in which she said she suspected bur until neighborhood and is less suspicious but won’t vote there today. Bessie had gotten after me at the beginning of the game for wanting a neighborhood because she claimed I should be able to talk in the game, so I guess I find it odd that she’s less suspicious of bur for talking more in the neighborhood, and I’m concerned they’re doing that “I suspect my partner but don’t want to vote them today” dance.
I’m not sure what to do about that thought because bur did know I was the doc and did not roleblock me or kill me, so I’m not sure if that above thought even makes sense.
Thanks! I am starting to feel better but I’m in this weird stage of feeling a little better one day for a while and crappy the next.
Vote Count Day 2 Final
Tubba (8): Azrael, GJ, Anak, Killjoy, Silver, BoomFrog, Wisp, Tammy
Azrael (5): Bur, Highroller, Bessie, Tubba, Sloth
BoomFrog (1): Cuth
Silver (1): GJ
Not Voting (2): Cantrip, Vaimes
-
Lots of speculation incoming. In the absence of actual reads, I'm turning to the votecount for guidance. All of this relies on Cuth/Tammy/KJ/Bur townreads, but for the initial premise only Tammy/KJ townreads are super relevant going into Night. The others can be debated on Day 5 if we make it that far.
If Tubba is a villager, the mafia are probably evenly split between the two top wagons, whether or not you include Cuth in your scumreads: a group of 8 on the main wagon, and a group of 6 off-wagon that are all unflipped. I'd be surprised if the entire team was parked on Azrael/off Tubba [and in that world I think Tubba is more likely mafia, because maybe he has a really strong role and scum absolutely do not want to bus], which means I think if we kill in Anak/BoomFrog, we have high chances of hitting 1, maybe 2 mafia. My feelings about Anak are a mess but with all the controversey, I don't feel like I can be sure about defending him.
ToDay is probably 7 1 4. Let's go through the best-, wost-, and middle-case scenarios. I'm not going to rely on us voting out Anak to get rid of Wisp, because Cuth will probably be blocked again to prevent us from solving with his kill. I imagine Wisp will only be blocked if Anak is mafia.
Worst: BoomFrog/Anak are both town. We kill BoomFrog and go into Night with 6 1 4. Assuming Wisp is successful with killing Anak and leaving the game, we're at 5 4. It's complicated [for me] to play out scenarios here because mafia can't block both Cuth and Tammy, and they're gambling on whether or not to give Cuth a chance to hit mafia OR for Tammy to block the NK. We probably lose in this world because too many dead villagers and unknown variables.
Best: BoomFrog/Anak are both mafia. Kill BoomFrog, Night is 6 1 3. Wisp nabs Anak, 6 2. NK probably goes through, 5 2. IF Cuth kills mafia, Day starts at 5 1. We're in a great spot, whether it's 5 2 or 5 1.
Middle: There's one mafia in BoomFrog/Anak. After they both die, Night is 6 3. Blah blah vig shenanigans, vit shenanigans, NK shenanigans. This still isn't awful, we're only really in a bad spot if Cuth and Sloth kill villagers in addition to the NK.
Sorry if this is confusing, but tl;dr I think BoomFrog is the best yeet, and Anak can be resolved via Wisp unless anyone thinks Boom and Anak are both villagers. If there's something wrong with my scenarios, let's talk about it. I'm aware you can't really plan for much in a closed setup but what else is there to do at this point.
ya you are really convincing me to not vote in the wits, with the whole, "if anak is a wolf, Wisp might get blocked"
keep it up
Night 1: Highroller only
Night 2: GJ only
Night 3: Highroller and BoomFrog
If Night 3 was the first instance of two people claiming it, a possible and simple explanation is that Sloth/BoomFrog are just scum together. Otherwise scum would have to be using their vit drain on their NK targets but randomly decided to target a living person on Night 3. And I don't think BoomFrog's role is such a threat that they needed to steal from him.
Yeah the highroller night one and three are the ones unaccounted for.
I’ve been trying to figure out what to make of that.
Anyway, Sloth being a vit stealer but taking no action the same Night that there was only one claim of vit being stolen is sus. If there's a town and a scum version of the role, scum had to have targeted Rhand Night 1 and Silver Night 2. Possible, but why switch from stealing NK targets' vitality to stealing Highroller's?
I don't actually like typing this because Sloth has played a good game if he's mafia, and he was a townread Azrael felt strongly about. The fact that I'm not penciling in a Sloth/Boom/Anak/bessie team fills me with great shame.
[This specific team because there are arguments to be had about Highroller and Tubba being more likely villagers, and it doesn't leave much room for anything else unless you want to argue about Bur and Cuth.]
Still feels like I'm missing something u_u
ok, did you claim this somewhere on Day 2?
Night 2: Sloth targeted and killed GJ, apparently you were targeted as well by someone else
Night 3: Sloth targeted BoomFrog, someone else targeted Highroller
sloth claims responsibility for boom and Gj
If other people could definitively state whether they'll be here or not next time they pop in, that'd be great.
You’re cool. Please don’t worry about this game, just post if you can.
Chandler you’re a very good handsome boy, your person is a meanie for making you wear the cone of shame.
You’re town reading Cuth what a surprise. [/sarcasm]
You’re not going to answer questions today what a surprise. [/sarcasm]
I feel a little better about Bur because I was able to get some info, like some reasons for his reads, that he wasn’t putting in the thread. Because I am always suspicious when someone makes a read they can’t or won’t explain. But I don’t have chat with Bur today so I would need to see that info in the thread. As far as me getting town read for suspecting Tammy, I have said many times myself, I had no meta knowledge of Tammy before this game and read no other games on this forum. I didn’t even know what forum the game was on when I agreed to replace. It’s very frustrating to be still explaining on page 80 that I read through the game and made my opening post notes in isolation with no forum or player meta knowledge (except the two players I have played with on other forums), I was just noting stuff that pinged me. And I’m suspicious of anyone that still refuses to look at this from my point of view, and what I, a newbie to this forum, might have been pinged by, and keeps sticking on ‘well it’s TAMMY”.
I will be here in the morning and probably can arrange to be here at deadline.