[quote from="misterpid »" url="/forums/magic-fundamentals/magic-general/789255-what-does-wizards-of-the-coast-need-to-do-to?comment=46"]
Yes I know all of this. Many on the site do as well. There are a few delusional that think you should get twice the EV that you paid for. That's not what I or anyone else reasonable is advocating. What I'm saying is that if the average EV of a pack of Masters is around 3 to 4 bucks (And that is probably stretching it.) then MSRP should be no more than 2 times that amount at $6.99 a pack.
According to http://mtg.dawnglare.com/?p=sets&source=tcg_low&pack=1, using the lowest value indicator, assuming anything worth less than $1 is worthless, and not taking into account foils, EV on every Masters set before Iconic Masters is $6+, and even Iconic is $4+. Using mid-value indicator, it's closer to $6 for Iconic, $9 for most masters sets and over $18 for the original Modern Masters (and that's still ignoring anything worth less than $1 and ignoring foils).
According to these numbers, you're already getting EV nearly equal to MSRP (or more, given the pessimistic assumptions) from every pack of Masters except Iconic, and even in Iconic the EV is not less than half the MSRP. So if you just want MSRP no more than two times EV, then Wizards has already satisfied your criteria.
I just want one thing bring back the player rewards program during that time I played way more tournaments and felt like it was worth it no matter how I did in the tournaments planeswalker points have no value to me as a casual tournament player.
The problem is that if a sealed product has a high enough EV compared to it's MSRP, then stores/sellers will have more incentive to either raise the price on the sealed product or just open it up and sell singles instead of selling the sealed product. We've seen this over and over throughout the history of the game. WotC obviously knows this happens and it looks like they want to limit the extent of it happening (mostly just with FTV products). If the sellers don't do either of those things, then they will most likely sell out of the product immediately and lots of people who want to buy the product from them won't be able to.
Look around and you'll notice that people complain about the drop in the level of cards used in almost every type of sealed product compared to what we've had in the past. Most people seem to complain about it by saying that WotC is just being cheap and not giving people the cards that they really want. The way I see it is that they are being realistic about people being able to get sealed products at the MSRP.
Is there a solution to this situation? I have no idea whether there is or not.
Yes I know all of this. Many on the site do as well. There are a few delusional that think you should get twice the EV that you paid for. That's not what I or anyone else reasonable is advocating. What I'm saying is that if the average EV of a pack of Masters is around 3 to 4 bucks (And that is probably stretching it.) then MSRP should be no more than 2 times that amount at $6.99 a pack. There is nothing more feel bad than paying 10 bucks for a pack of Masters and opening it to find a worthless 25 cent bulk rare and an equally worthless common foil that isn't played anywhere. 10 dollars for 50 cents worth of value. Maybe I need to set up a stand at Magic tourneys and offer 2 shiny quarters for a ten dollar bill. Its almost the same lunacy.
So there IS a solution to this. WotC/Hasbro needs to only reprint stronger, reasonable value cards in PREMIUM Masters sets. Screw the "configured for draft". That is what the Conspiracy line is for. Make it so EV of packs is targeted so you at least get half back what you paid for it. Sure some decks will come in way on the high side, but others will fall a slight bit below to balance it out. And yes this would probably take a new pack collation method, not their current one. I'm sure they will say that its time intensive and would cost them money to do so. I'd bet there is still "meat on the bone" per cost of pack produced to do this. But they will never share that information, they don't want us to know.
Thanks for the response though. I think we need a discussion of this topic.
That type of system works if all of the rares/mythics have a value that fall within the given range. But no one will want to buy a set like that because none of the (non-foil) cards will be worth more than the cost of the pack. They need to have high dollar cards to draw interest in the set. The more high dollar cards they put into the set, the more "feel bad" cards are needed to create the correct balance.
Let's take Masters 25 as an example. We know Jace, Phyrexian Obliterator and Azusa will all be in Masters 25. How should they balance out the set and achieve the desired average pack EV just based on those 3 cards being included?
According to http://mtg.dawnglare.com/?p=sets&source=tcg_low&pack=1, using the lowest value indicator, assuming anything worth less than $1 is worthless, and not taking into account foils, EV on every Masters set before Iconic Masters is $6+, and even Iconic is $4+. Using mid-value indicator, it's closer to $6 for Iconic, $9 for most masters sets and over $18 for the original Modern Masters (and that's still ignoring anything worth less than $1 and ignoring foils).
According to these numbers, you're already getting EV nearly equal to MSRP (or more, given the pessimistic assumptions) from every pack of Masters except Iconic, and even in Iconic the EV is not less than half the MSRP. So if you just want MSRP no more than two times EV, then Wizards has already satisfied your criteria.
You're looking at current EV numbers for past sets, which are much higher than the EV of those sets when they were first released. What we are talking about is EV at the time of release or while the set is readily available. Yes, Modern Masters 2013 has an EV higher than the MSRP - but good luck finding packs for that price, or even for a price equal to the current EV.
The problem is that if a sealed product has a high enough EV compared to it's MSRP, then stores/sellers will have more incentive to either raise the price on the sealed product or just open it up and sell singles instead of selling the sealed product. We've seen this over and over throughout the history of the game. WotC obviously knows this happens and it looks like they want to limit the extent of it happening (mostly just with FTV products). If the sellers don't do either of those things, then they will most likely sell out of the product immediately and lots of people who want to buy the product from them won't be able to.
Look around and you'll notice that people complain about the drop in the level of cards used in almost every type of sealed product compared to what we've had in the past. Most people seem to complain about it by saying that WotC is just being cheap and not giving people the cards that they really want. The way I see it is that they are being realistic about people being able to get sealed products at the MSRP.
Is there a solution to this situation? I have no idea whether there is or not.
Yes I know all of this. Many on the site do as well. There are a few delusional that think you should get twice the EV that you paid for. That's not what I or anyone else reasonable is advocating. What I'm saying is that if the average EV of a pack of Masters is around 3 to 4 bucks (And that is probably stretching it.) then MSRP should be no more than 2 times that amount at $6.99 a pack. There is nothing more feel bad than paying 10 bucks for a pack of Masters and opening it to find a worthless 25 cent bulk rare and an equally worthless common foil that isn't played anywhere. 10 dollars for 50 cents worth of value. Maybe I need to set up a stand at Magic tourneys and offer 2 shiny quarters for a ten dollar bill. Its almost the same lunacy.
So there IS a solution to this. WotC/Hasbro needs to only reprint stronger, reasonable value cards in PREMIUM Masters sets. Screw the "configured for draft". That is what the Conspiracy line is for. Make it so EV of packs is targeted so you at least get half back what you paid for it. Sure some decks will come in way on the high side, but others will fall a slight bit below to balance it out. And yes this would probably take a new pack collation method, not their current one. I'm sure they will say that its time intensive and would cost them money to do so. I'd bet there is still "meat on the bone" per cost of pack produced to do this. But they will never share that information, they don't want us to know.
Thanks for the response though. I think we need a discussion of this topic.
That type of system works if all of the rares/mythics have a value that fall within the given range. But no one will want to buy a set like that because none of the (non-foil) cards will be worth more than the cost of the pack. They need to have high dollar cards to draw interest in the set. The more high dollar cards they put into the set, the more "feel bad" cards are needed to create the correct balance.
Let's take Masters 25 as an example. We know Jace, Phyrexian Obliterator and Azusa will all be in Masters 25. How should they balance out the set and achieve the desired average pack EV just based on those 3 cards being included?
According to http://mtg.dawnglare.com/?p=sets&source=tcg_low&pack=1, using the lowest value indicator, assuming anything worth less than $1 is worthless, and not taking into account foils, EV on every Masters set before Iconic Masters is $6+, and even Iconic is $4+. Using mid-value indicator, it's closer to $6 for Iconic, $9 for most masters sets and over $18 for the original Modern Masters (and that's still ignoring anything worth less than $1 and ignoring foils).
According to these numbers, you're already getting EV nearly equal to MSRP (or more, given the pessimistic assumptions) from every pack of Masters except Iconic, and even in Iconic the EV is not less than half the MSRP. So if you just want MSRP no more than two times EV, then Wizards has already satisfied your criteria.
You're looking at current EV numbers for past sets, which are much higher than the EV of those sets when they were first released. What we are talking about is EV at the time of release or while the set is readily available. Yes, Modern Masters 2013 has an EV higher than the MSRP - but good luck finding packs for that price, or even for a price equal to the current EV.
</blockquote>
Except Iconic Masters is still in stores.
You see a lot more complaints about Masters packs then you see praise for the same reason a popular restaurant will always have more negative reviews than positive ones: people are less likely to post when they are satisfied, and more likely to rage post when they are not.
If you open three packs of Iconic Masters and pull a Mana Drain and a foil Aether Vial, you're not going to post outside a bragging thread. But if you buy three and get crap, you're more likely to post on here raging at the set. Compounded further if you got really unlucky and got a crap box.
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"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
The primary issue is the scratch off ticket value from the booster pack is not making it feel worthwhile in regards to the maximum plausible reward from the pack. Also Iconic masters isn't leaving store shelves because the set was not worth the msrp to begin with. Honestly the set was actually pretty good. I'd say it was about at tenth edition level at the very least, but they priced it at twice the cost of a core set and only gave 2/3 of the same amount of product.
The fact that they had to unban Jace and BBE is rather concerning, because that means Wizards is viewing the number of modern playable cards in the upcoming masters set as a problem. They can't suddenly pop more modern staples in a set that has already gone to the printers, but they can unban and make some older cards modern legal that were banned. Modern right now is the only thing letting cards hold value over being reprinted in these sets, and having the prices just collapse on older cards no one is actively playing is making the entire idea of a 240 dollar luxury set seem idiotic.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
The primary issue is the scratch off ticket value from the booster pack is not making it feel worthwhile in regards to the maximum plausible reward from the pack. Also Iconic masters isn't leaving store shelves because the set was not worth the msrp to begin with. Honestly the set was actually pretty good. I'd say it was about at tenth edition level at the very least, but they priced it at twice the cost of a core set and only gave 2/3 of the same amount of product.
The fact that they had to unban Jace and BBE is rather concerning, because that means Wizards is viewing the number of modern playable cards in the upcoming masters set as a problem. They can't suddenly pop more modern staples in a set that has already gone to the printers, but they can unban and make some older cards modern legal that were banned. Modern right now is the only thing letting cards hold value over being reprinted in these sets, and having the prices just collapse on older cards no one is actively playing is making the entire idea of a 240 dollar luxury set seem idiotic.
I've seen this conspiracy theory floating around a lot. Do you have any proof Wizards unbanned Jace to sell Masters packs?
Or could it be that a four mana Unsummon/Brainstorm/Fateseal in a format where you can and will die on that turn might not be appropriate on the banned list anymore? Against a good chunk of Tier 1 and Tier 2 Modern decks, Jace simply does nothing. And now that the format is stable, unbanning cards might help certain decks and matchups?
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"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
The primary issue is the scratch off ticket value from the booster pack is not making it feel worthwhile in regards to the maximum plausible reward from the pack. Also Iconic masters isn't leaving store shelves because the set was not worth the msrp to begin with. Honestly the set was actually pretty good. I'd say it was about at tenth edition level at the very least, but they priced it at twice the cost of a core set and only gave 2/3 of the same amount of product.
The fact that they had to unban Jace and BBE is rather concerning, because that means Wizards is viewing the number of modern playable cards in the upcoming masters set as a problem. They can't suddenly pop more modern staples in a set that has already gone to the printers, but they can unban and make some older cards modern legal that were banned. Modern right now is the only thing letting cards hold value over being reprinted in these sets, and having the prices just collapse on older cards no one is actively playing is making the entire idea of a 240 dollar luxury set seem idiotic.
I've seen this conspiracy theory floating around a lot. Do you have any proof Wizards unbanned Jace to sell Masters packs?
Or could it be that a four mana Unsummon/Brainstorm/Fateseal in a format where you can and will die on that turn might not be appropriate on the banned list anymore? Against a good chunk of Tier 1 and Tier 2 Modern decks, Jace simply does nothing. And now that the format is stable, unbanning cards might help certain decks and matchups?
No and we never will have evidence because the only ones who know would be the people who work at wizards. What we can say is that from looking at how things have gone with prior sets that have been released, if a card isn't played in modern the price drops far more on a reprint than if it were played in modern and the modern playability of the contents of a masters set has impacted how quickly it gets sold out. People still have Eternal masters boxes sealed and until recently they could have been bought for 200 usd. Iconic masters is similar to eternal masters only it had some other factors working against it, causing it's price to deflate rather quickly. If they don't have at least some cards in the set that are modern playable the set is going to have trouble selling.
There's a difference between a conspiracy theory and common sense. This is just falling into the "and no one really cares because we all knew they'd probably do something like this" category. Either they stuffed the set with modern staples to keep the boxes floating or they unban something to keep the boxes floating. The format looked good, they need all the help they can with getting these boxes unloaded, and jace never saw play in modern, so why not unban him and BBE? You kill two birds with one stone and it might make a few new decks appear. If worse comes to worse they just ban him again later or some other card. It's zero effort, will potentially help box sales, and modern will probably survive.
I don't know, I just don't feel like there's much here to argue about unless I'm missing something?
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
You're looking at current EV numbers for past sets, which are much higher than the EV of those sets when they were first released.
No, it's not. According to mtggoldfish:
MM13 total set value on release: ~$700. Current total set value: ~$1050. Only a 50% increase. At launch, EV still greater than MSRP.
MM15 total set value on release: ~$900. Current total set value: ~$800. Actually higher EV on launch than now.
MM17 total set value on release: ~$650. Current total set value: ~$770. Less than a 20% change in EV.
And of course Iconic Masters is still current.
All statistical indication is that the Modern Masters sets have all had very reasonable EV. Iconic Masters is a drop in EV but still gives you 50% or more EV. For comparison, all the recent "normal" sets have a per pack value of less than $2 (low-val) or less than $2.50 (mid-val) using the same data source, at MSRP of $4. In other words, Masters even including Iconic are at the same (or better) EV-to-MSRP ratio as ordinary packs.
Yes, it feels worse to open a $10 pack and get 25 cents than to open a $4 pack and get 25 cents. But that's not the EV, that's the variance.
You're looking at current EV numbers for past sets, which are much higher than the EV of those sets when they were first released.
No, it's not. According to mtggoldfish:
MM13 total set value on release: ~$700. Current total set value: ~$1050. Only a 50% increase. At launch, EV still greater than MSRP.
MM15 total set value on release: ~$900. Current total set value: ~$800. Actually higher EV on launch than now.
MM17 total set value on release: ~$650. Current total set value: ~$770. Less than a 20% change in EV.
And of course Iconic Masters is still current.
All statistical indication is that the Modern Masters sets have all had very reasonable EV. Iconic Masters is a drop in EV but still gives you 50% or more EV. For comparison, all the recent "normal" sets have a per pack value of less than $2 (low-val) or less than $2.50 (mid-val) using the same data source, at MSRP of $4. In other words, Masters even including Iconic are at the same (or better) EV-to-MSRP ratio as ordinary packs.
Yes, it feels worse to open a $10 pack and get 25 cents than to open a $4 pack and get 25 cents. But that's not the EV, that's the variance.
I'm still surprised they are trying to force these 240 msrp Goliaths into the market. They need to reprint a lot of these high dollar cards in conspiracy level sets and spread them out.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
You're looking at current EV numbers for past sets, which are much higher than the EV of those sets when they were first released.
No, it's not. According to mtggoldfish:
MM13 total set value on release: ~$700. Current total set value: ~$1050. Only a 50% increase. At launch, EV still greater than MSRP.
MM15 total set value on release: ~$900. Current total set value: ~$800. Actually higher EV on launch than now.
MM17 total set value on release: ~$650. Current total set value: ~$770. Less than a 20% change in EV.
And of course Iconic Masters is still current.
All statistical indication is that the Modern Masters sets have all had very reasonable EV. Iconic Masters is a drop in EV but still gives you 50% or more EV. For comparison, all the recent "normal" sets have a per pack value of less than $2 (low-val) or less than $2.50 (mid-val) using the same data source, at MSRP of $4. In other words, Masters even including Iconic are at the same (or better) EV-to-MSRP ratio as ordinary packs.
Yes, it feels worse to open a $10 pack and get 25 cents than to open a $4 pack and get 25 cents. But that's not the EV, that's the variance.
I'm still surprised they are trying to force these 240 msrp Goliaths into the market. They need to reprint a lot of these high dollar cards in conspiracy level sets and spread them out.
Because R&D costs for Masters is very nearly zero? Conspiracy sets or similar requires at least... what? Half the cards to be created new? That's R&D right there.
They might be calculating balancing (cause... you know, every set has to be draftable) costs into that but can you imagine the cost tracking required on that?
They really do need to re-evaluate the Masters sets. If they want these things to be at Wal Mart they can't keep expecting them to be sold at $10 per pack or MJHoldings will soon walk out of the deal. IMA was being sold for $8 and under less than a month in and some online stores were pre-selling A25 for $120 a box before Jace got unbanned.
It is no longer a limited product and it does no longer contain $300+ EV like MMA did. If future Masters sets will be more like IMA than MMA, they need to drop the MSRP to $6 per pack or distributors will not be able to allocate the product and ultimatedly stop buying.
You're looking at current EV numbers for past sets, which are much higher than the EV of those sets when they were first released.
No, it's not. According to mtggoldfish:
MM13 total set value on release: ~$700. Current total set value: ~$1050. Only a 50% increase. At launch, EV still greater than MSRP.
MM15 total set value on release: ~$900. Current total set value: ~$800. Actually higher EV on launch than now.
MM17 total set value on release: ~$650. Current total set value: ~$770. Less than a 20% change in EV.
And of course Iconic Masters is still current.
All statistical indication is that the Modern Masters sets have all had very reasonable EV. Iconic Masters is a drop in EV but still gives you 50% or more EV. For comparison, all the recent "normal" sets have a per pack value of less than $2 (low-val) or less than $2.50 (mid-val) using the same data source, at MSRP of $4. In other words, Masters even including Iconic are at the same (or better) EV-to-MSRP ratio as ordinary packs.
Yes, it feels worse to open a $10 pack and get 25 cents than to open a $4 pack and get 25 cents. But that's not the EV, that's the variance.
Variance that could be more under control by Wizards if they changed their collation/sorting of cards into packs for Masters sets. Iconic is a dumpster fire compared to the others. They can't continue in the fashion of IM, they need to load up the power/value more (ala MM1 2 and 3) in M25 or if they don't drop the price per pack, plain and simple. Variance could be controlled to an extent. They just aren't going to do it. And I've let IM rot on the shelves instead of buying any packs as I have for previous Masters sets. Frankly a simple solution would be if they pop in the garbage 25 cent bulk rare, that pack should have at least one value Uncommon or foil uncommon/rare in it to compensate. Then packs with the "good stuff" get the lower track uncommons. It could still be semi-random. Besides packs aren't truly random right now anyway. Variance is what is going to chase away that younger player when they open up a pack or 2, get a pile of crap and decide they have better things to spend their money on than a worthless rectangle of crap from a 10 dollar pack.
Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
WotC is not going to end Paper Magic. Don't be silly people. It is a big money maker. A renewed focus on a digital version of the game is important because, right now, WotC is leaving a lot of money on the table. Even if Arena only does a tenth of what Hearthstone does, that is still over a hundred million dollars a year. That's 1/8th of Hasbro's total Gaming Portfolio. Not trying to replicate the success of Hearthstone is foolish.
Online retailers are already trying to end Paper Magic by putting LGS's out of business. MTGO actually makes more money than Paper Magic does yet it's already getting phased out for MTG Arena. What's the point of owning physical cards If nobody has a place to play? Don't give me that Kitchen Table Casual excuse when you'd be much better off playing on your next gen console/handheld or gaming PC with AI opponents when it doesn't give you the same experience as playing with real people at an LGS.
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America Bless Christ Jesus
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
WotC is not going to end Paper Magic. Don't be silly people. It is a big money maker. A renewed focus on a digital version of the game is important because, right now, WotC is leaving a lot of money on the table. Even if Arena only does a tenth of what Hearthstone does, that is still over a hundred million dollars a year. That's 1/8th of Hasbro's total Gaming Portfolio. Not trying to replicate the success of Hearthstone is foolish.
Online retailers are already trying to end Paper Magic by putting LGS's out of business. MTGO actually makes more money than Paper Magic does yet it's already getting phased out for MTG Arena. What's the point of owning physical cards If nobody has a place to play? Don't give me that Kitchen Table Casual excuse when you'd be much better off playing on your next gen console/handheld or gaming PC with AI opponents when it doesn't give you the same experience as playing with real people at an LGS.
If you look at the valentines day announcement they are making an app so that people can run tournaments from their homes. I wouldn't be surprised if players plugged in their DCI number and could do something weird like track casual tourney points or something. No word on if they are going to integrate that into some promotional tool for encouraging LGS attendance.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
If you look at the valentines day announcement they are making an app so that people can run tournaments from their homes. I wouldn't be surprised if players plugged in their DCI number and could do something weird like track casual tourney points or something. No word on if they are going to integrate that into some promotional tool for encouraging LGS attendance.
They only made that app to make it easier for players who don't have access to an LGS to run tournaments from their homes which sets a dangerous precedent for abuse that ends up hurting LGS attendance in the long run. Why would I waste my time running a tournament at home If I still have access to an LGS? If everyone hates Trading Card Games/Collectible Card Games so much then why did they invest money into them in the first place?
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
Variance that could be more under control by Wizards if they changed their collation/sorting of cards into packs for Masters sets. Iconic is a dumpster fire compared to the others. They can't continue in the fashion of IM, they need to load up the power/value more (ala MM1 2 and 3) in M25 or if they don't drop the price per pack, plain and simple.
*shrug* I've provided the data about EV specifically. If you also have a problem with the variance, that's a different issue.
Personally, I doubt that Iconic Masters or any Masters product has any effect on the "younger/newer players" demographic; they're not the target audience and are unlikely to be the primary consumers.
The Masters edition seems to have followed a very natural course. The first Masters product was aggressively undercosted, as part of a first foray into a product space. They found out that it was way undercosted/overvalued, and they have been trimming the "fat" down to ensure it's a sustainable product line. They can continue to use the Masters edition as a "high variance" product line with normal sets as a "low variance" reference point. People who like high variance will continue to buy Masters, people who don't will not. Wizards is likely going to be fine with lots of players choosing to buy only a subset of the Magic product, and that should already be part of their overall business strategy.
You might say that right now, but I don't think that Wizards of the Coast is going to have a Masters set in 2019. Since they are returning to core sets it is more likely they are going to spread out the reprints through other product lines next year and let things cool off after this one. They had one terribly flop and the other is requiring them to go the extra mile just to make sure it sells. Rivals sales have been horrible and the only thing that has done well (and continues to do well) is unstable.
Also, opening boosters serves another purpose beyond just playing a lottery game or being a tool for draft. It's also a way to farm for ideas on building decks since there are times that we just sort of forget certain cards exist. It's easy to let modern showcase the top pick cards, but sometimes there are fresh ideas buried in less traveled places, and opening some randomized pack can help bring those to light.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
WotC is not going to end Paper Magic. Don't be silly people. It is a big money maker. A renewed focus on a digital version of the game is important because, right now, WotC is leaving a lot of money on the table. Even if Arena only does a tenth of what Hearthstone does, that is still over a hundred million dollars a year. That's 1/8th of Hasbro's total Gaming Portfolio. Not trying to replicate the success of Hearthstone is foolish.
Online retailers are already trying to end Paper Magic by putting LGS's out of business. MTGO actually makes more money than Paper Magic does yet it's already getting phased out for MTG Arena. What's the point of owning physical cards If nobody has a place to play? Don't give me that Kitchen Table Casual excuse when you'd be much better off playing on your next gen console/handheld or gaming PC with AI opponents when it doesn't give you the same experience as playing with real people at an LGS.
Thing is online gaming gives people many benefits LGS don’t.
I know MTGO takes a lot of heat, but, on the other hand, it provides a lot of advantages:
1 – The set up - You are in the comfort of your home, sitting in a comfortable chair/sofa/whatever, with the temperature/light/air preference you like. You can be eating or drinking while playing. You don’t need to waste time getting your cards and accessories. You don’t need to waste time sleeving cards. You don’t need to shuffle any cards. You don’t need any paper to take notes. You don’t see your opponent’s cards upside down.
2 – Time management – In between rounds or while you wait for your opponent to make a move, you can do all sorts of things around the house instead of just waiting.
3 – No cheating – You don’t have to worry about your opponent cheating, because you just can’t cheat the game online, at least, not in the way it is cheated in paper Magic.
4 – Freedom from regulations – You don’t have to abide to any general or in-house regulations and you don’t have to argue with your opponent about the rules. No need for judges.
5 – Protection – You don’t have to worry about having your cards and things stolen, and you don’t have to put up with types of people you dislike.
Now, I’m not saying there is nothing to gain from the LGS experience, but all things considered, it’s perfectly understandable why many prefer to play Magic at home.
If LGS want people to come and play there, they need to make the experience more attractive, either by giving more to the player or by charging him less, instead of bleeding his wallet dry.
The reality is there's nothing wrong with paper or digital magic. Store owners have a chip on the paper side and are trying to keep attendance as high as possible via any means necessary, so it's natural that they are going to be against a huge push towards digital. It's the same with any player that does play at an LGS regularly since they need opponents to play Magic. If they want to create a MtG Hearthstone to increase ease of access to the game and provide a more interesting tournament scene than all the more power to them. In the long run it has the possibility of taking the heat off of singles in paper to a degree, since more people will be able to just compete digitally, maybe even at the tournament grounds via set up machines, and not have to deal with shady dealers selling counterfits or having to scramble about getting singles via mail order before the tournament begins.
The issue that WoTC needs to address is their own habit of choking their paper market in some hope that will force more people into either playing a format they want them to play, or force them into digital and abandon paper. People should choose which version is right for them. Right now they are trying to make that choice for players.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Personally, I doubt that Iconic Masters or any Masters product has any effect on the "younger/newer players" demographic; they're not the target audience and are unlikely to be the primary consumers.
And it will continue to be that way unless WotC rethinks its pack collation methods. Target audience will shrink, sales will shrink and the line will drop. Its already heading that way. We will see if M25 pulls them out of the spiral or not.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Variance that could be more under control by Wizards if they changed their collation/sorting of cards into packs for Masters sets. Iconic is a dumpster fire compared to the others. They can't continue in the fashion of IM, they need to load up the power/value more (ala MM1 2 and 3) in M25 or if they don't drop the price per pack, plain and simple.
*shrug* I've provided the data about EV specifically. If you also have a problem with the variance, that's a different issue.
Personally, I doubt that Iconic Masters or any Masters product has any effect on the "younger/newer players" demographic; they're not the target audience and are unlikely to be the primary consumers. (if we assume that commons/uncommns have no value and to most players they don't and the foils are valued at 0. ) Looking at just rares/mythics.
The Masters edition seems to have followed a very natural course. The first Masters product was aggressively undercosted, as part of a first foray into a product space. They found out that it was way undercosted/overvalued, and they have been trimming the "fat" down to ensure it's a sustainable product line. They can continue to use the Masters edition as a "high variance" product line with normal sets as a "low variance" reference point. People who like high variance will continue to buy Masters, people who don't will not. Wizards is likely going to be fine with lots of players choosing to buy only a subset of the Magic product, and that should already be part of their overall business strategy.
Thank you for posting the EV's that was quite helpful. However I feel that while average EV % is important, for the common player knowing the medum value is also important that would give a player a better idea of the value without the swimgy nature of uber mythic/draft garbage.
Based on finding the math and some help from SCG the medium for eternal masters is only 2.24, a far cry from the $10 price.... This is assuming you only look at rares mythics and assune a don't countfoils. (which most players do,)
Hasbro is a publicly traded company, so actually we do get some revenue numbers related to MTG in their business plan and financial reporting that is required to be disclosed to shareholders and the public at large. I don't the numbers of every year, but yes WOTC, and therefore hasbro, gets more revenue from online sales in most years than paper, because there are fewer intermediaries building up costs. There's no warehousing required, no large distributors, less worry about product being stolen or damaged physically during storage and delivery, and no splitting of revenue with retail outlets. Yes, MTGO has its own cost in terms of server-related labor, but seeing as how it looks like it hasn't had any significant update beyond bug-fixes in fifteen years those costs aren't anywhere near those of paper sales.
I think WOTC needs to expand the reserved list. I think it would benefit consumer confidence and increase sales if people knew that cards were more likely to become collectors editions. I think the process should be very transparent (as in the intention should be announced over a year in advance, with at least 6-12 months of knowing what will be added before it takes effect).
I also think that WOTC needs to revamp its pro system and terminate the elitist and exclusionary aspects of it. WOTC wants this to be an esport? Stop thinking that pros are draws. The cards matter way more than any one player, let alone thier beliefs on "pro equity."
I bet some large-box cube sets would work well, too. Casuals might like precon cubes designed for draft.
I think WOTC needs to expand the reserved list. I think it would benefit consumer confidence and increase sales if people knew that cards were more likely to become collectors editions. I think the process should be very transparent (as in the intention should be announced over a year in advance, with at least 6-12 months of knowing what will be added before it takes effect).
That will never, ever happen. The Reserved List was a mistake that has hurt (the paper version of) the game, as a whole, since its inception.
The collectors are not the ones WotC needs to focus on in the paper format. They actually need to focus on the people who play the game. If the game is fun, people will crack packs. If the game play is bad, people stop cracking packs. Simple as that.
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According to these numbers, you're already getting EV nearly equal to MSRP (or more, given the pessimistic assumptions) from every pack of Masters except Iconic, and even in Iconic the EV is not less than half the MSRP. So if you just want MSRP no more than two times EV, then Wizards has already satisfied your criteria.
That type of system works if all of the rares/mythics have a value that fall within the given range. But no one will want to buy a set like that because none of the (non-foil) cards will be worth more than the cost of the pack. They need to have high dollar cards to draw interest in the set. The more high dollar cards they put into the set, the more "feel bad" cards are needed to create the correct balance.
Let's take Masters 25 as an example. We know Jace, Phyrexian Obliterator and Azusa will all be in Masters 25. How should they balance out the set and achieve the desired average pack EV just based on those 3 cards being included?
You're looking at current EV numbers for past sets, which are much higher than the EV of those sets when they were first released. What we are talking about is EV at the time of release or while the set is readily available. Yes, Modern Masters 2013 has an EV higher than the MSRP - but good luck finding packs for that price, or even for a price equal to the current EV.
Except Iconic Masters is still in stores.
You see a lot more complaints about Masters packs then you see praise for the same reason a popular restaurant will always have more negative reviews than positive ones: people are less likely to post when they are satisfied, and more likely to rage post when they are not.
If you open three packs of Iconic Masters and pull a Mana Drain and a foil Aether Vial, you're not going to post outside a bragging thread. But if you buy three and get crap, you're more likely to post on here raging at the set. Compounded further if you got really unlucky and got a crap box.
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
So for the SDCC planeswalker cards, have the Gatewatch cosplay some OG characters.
Gideon cosplaying Gerrard
Jace as Teferi
Liliana as Xancha
Chandra as Jaya
Nissa as Freyalise
Ajani as Windgrace
The fact that they had to unban Jace and BBE is rather concerning, because that means Wizards is viewing the number of modern playable cards in the upcoming masters set as a problem. They can't suddenly pop more modern staples in a set that has already gone to the printers, but they can unban and make some older cards modern legal that were banned. Modern right now is the only thing letting cards hold value over being reprinted in these sets, and having the prices just collapse on older cards no one is actively playing is making the entire idea of a 240 dollar luxury set seem idiotic.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I've seen this conspiracy theory floating around a lot. Do you have any proof Wizards unbanned Jace to sell Masters packs?
Or could it be that a four mana Unsummon/Brainstorm/Fateseal in a format where you can and will die on that turn might not be appropriate on the banned list anymore? Against a good chunk of Tier 1 and Tier 2 Modern decks, Jace simply does nothing. And now that the format is stable, unbanning cards might help certain decks and matchups?
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
No and we never will have evidence because the only ones who know would be the people who work at wizards. What we can say is that from looking at how things have gone with prior sets that have been released, if a card isn't played in modern the price drops far more on a reprint than if it were played in modern and the modern playability of the contents of a masters set has impacted how quickly it gets sold out. People still have Eternal masters boxes sealed and until recently they could have been bought for 200 usd. Iconic masters is similar to eternal masters only it had some other factors working against it, causing it's price to deflate rather quickly. If they don't have at least some cards in the set that are modern playable the set is going to have trouble selling.
There's a difference between a conspiracy theory and common sense. This is just falling into the "and no one really cares because we all knew they'd probably do something like this" category. Either they stuffed the set with modern staples to keep the boxes floating or they unban something to keep the boxes floating. The format looked good, they need all the help they can with getting these boxes unloaded, and jace never saw play in modern, so why not unban him and BBE? You kill two birds with one stone and it might make a few new decks appear. If worse comes to worse they just ban him again later or some other card. It's zero effort, will potentially help box sales, and modern will probably survive.
I don't know, I just don't feel like there's much here to argue about unless I'm missing something?
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
MM13 total set value on release: ~$700. Current total set value: ~$1050. Only a 50% increase. At launch, EV still greater than MSRP.
MM15 total set value on release: ~$900. Current total set value: ~$800. Actually higher EV on launch than now.
MM17 total set value on release: ~$650. Current total set value: ~$770. Less than a 20% change in EV.
And of course Iconic Masters is still current.
All statistical indication is that the Modern Masters sets have all had very reasonable EV. Iconic Masters is a drop in EV but still gives you 50% or more EV. For comparison, all the recent "normal" sets have a per pack value of less than $2 (low-val) or less than $2.50 (mid-val) using the same data source, at MSRP of $4. In other words, Masters even including Iconic are at the same (or better) EV-to-MSRP ratio as ordinary packs.
Yes, it feels worse to open a $10 pack and get 25 cents than to open a $4 pack and get 25 cents. But that's not the EV, that's the variance.
I'm still surprised they are trying to force these 240 msrp Goliaths into the market. They need to reprint a lot of these high dollar cards in conspiracy level sets and spread them out.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Because R&D costs for Masters is very nearly zero? Conspiracy sets or similar requires at least... what? Half the cards to be created new? That's R&D right there.
They might be calculating balancing (cause... you know, every set has to be draftable) costs into that but can you imagine the cost tracking required on that?
It is no longer a limited product and it does no longer contain $300+ EV like MMA did. If future Masters sets will be more like IMA than MMA, they need to drop the MSRP to $6 per pack or distributors will not be able to allocate the product and ultimatedly stop buying.
Variance that could be more under control by Wizards if they changed their collation/sorting of cards into packs for Masters sets. Iconic is a dumpster fire compared to the others. They can't continue in the fashion of IM, they need to load up the power/value more (ala MM1 2 and 3) in M25 or if they don't drop the price per pack, plain and simple. Variance could be controlled to an extent. They just aren't going to do it. And I've let IM rot on the shelves instead of buying any packs as I have for previous Masters sets. Frankly a simple solution would be if they pop in the garbage 25 cent bulk rare, that pack should have at least one value Uncommon or foil uncommon/rare in it to compensate. Then packs with the "good stuff" get the lower track uncommons. It could still be semi-random. Besides packs aren't truly random right now anyway. Variance is what is going to chase away that younger player when they open up a pack or 2, get a pile of crap and decide they have better things to spend their money on than a worthless rectangle of crap from a 10 dollar pack.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
If you look at the valentines day announcement they are making an app so that people can run tournaments from their homes. I wouldn't be surprised if players plugged in their DCI number and could do something weird like track casual tourney points or something. No word on if they are going to integrate that into some promotional tool for encouraging LGS attendance.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
"Restriction breeds creativity." - Sheldon Menery on EDH / Commander in Magic: The Gathering
"Cancel Culture is the real reason why everyone's not allowed to have nice things anymore." - Anonymous
"For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?" - Mark 8:36
"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." - Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
"Every life decision is always a risk / reward proposition." - Sanjay Gupta
Personally, I doubt that Iconic Masters or any Masters product has any effect on the "younger/newer players" demographic; they're not the target audience and are unlikely to be the primary consumers.
The Masters edition seems to have followed a very natural course. The first Masters product was aggressively undercosted, as part of a first foray into a product space. They found out that it was way undercosted/overvalued, and they have been trimming the "fat" down to ensure it's a sustainable product line. They can continue to use the Masters edition as a "high variance" product line with normal sets as a "low variance" reference point. People who like high variance will continue to buy Masters, people who don't will not. Wizards is likely going to be fine with lots of players choosing to buy only a subset of the Magic product, and that should already be part of their overall business strategy.
Also, opening boosters serves another purpose beyond just playing a lottery game or being a tool for draft. It's also a way to farm for ideas on building decks since there are times that we just sort of forget certain cards exist. It's easy to let modern showcase the top pick cards, but sometimes there are fresh ideas buried in less traveled places, and opening some randomized pack can help bring those to light.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Thing is online gaming gives people many benefits LGS don’t.
I know MTGO takes a lot of heat, but, on the other hand, it provides a lot of advantages:
1 – The set up - You are in the comfort of your home, sitting in a comfortable chair/sofa/whatever, with the temperature/light/air preference you like. You can be eating or drinking while playing. You don’t need to waste time getting your cards and accessories. You don’t need to waste time sleeving cards. You don’t need to shuffle any cards. You don’t need any paper to take notes. You don’t see your opponent’s cards upside down.
2 – Time management – In between rounds or while you wait for your opponent to make a move, you can do all sorts of things around the house instead of just waiting.
3 – No cheating – You don’t have to worry about your opponent cheating, because you just can’t cheat the game online, at least, not in the way it is cheated in paper Magic.
4 – Freedom from regulations – You don’t have to abide to any general or in-house regulations and you don’t have to argue with your opponent about the rules. No need for judges.
5 – Protection – You don’t have to worry about having your cards and things stolen, and you don’t have to put up with types of people you dislike.
Now, I’m not saying there is nothing to gain from the LGS experience, but all things considered, it’s perfectly understandable why many prefer to play Magic at home.
If LGS want people to come and play there, they need to make the experience more attractive, either by giving more to the player or by charging him less, instead of bleeding his wallet dry.
The issue that WoTC needs to address is their own habit of choking their paper market in some hope that will force more people into either playing a format they want them to play, or force them into digital and abandon paper. People should choose which version is right for them. Right now they are trying to make that choice for players.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
And it will continue to be that way unless WotC rethinks its pack collation methods. Target audience will shrink, sales will shrink and the line will drop. Its already heading that way. We will see if M25 pulls them out of the spiral or not.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
Thank you for posting the EV's that was quite helpful. However I feel that while average EV % is important, for the common player knowing the medum value is also important that would give a player a better idea of the value without the swimgy nature of uber mythic/draft garbage.
Based on finding the math and some help from SCG the medium for eternal masters is only 2.24, a far cry from the $10 price.... This is assuming you only look at rares mythics and assune a don't countfoils. (which most players do,)
I think WOTC needs to expand the reserved list. I think it would benefit consumer confidence and increase sales if people knew that cards were more likely to become collectors editions. I think the process should be very transparent (as in the intention should be announced over a year in advance, with at least 6-12 months of knowing what will be added before it takes effect).
I also think that WOTC needs to revamp its pro system and terminate the elitist and exclusionary aspects of it. WOTC wants this to be an esport? Stop thinking that pros are draws. The cards matter way more than any one player, let alone thier beliefs on "pro equity."
I bet some large-box cube sets would work well, too. Casuals might like precon cubes designed for draft.
That will never, ever happen. The Reserved List was a mistake that has hurt (the paper version of) the game, as a whole, since its inception.
The collectors are not the ones WotC needs to focus on in the paper format. They actually need to focus on the people who play the game. If the game is fun, people will crack packs. If the game play is bad, people stop cracking packs. Simple as that.