We did just have 3 GP's fire off, gobbling up product, right? Can anyone explain to me how Tarmogoyf's release price ($174.99) has not moved one iota despite an estimated 200+ playsets coming in? I mean, all these guys on the threads that have been talking supply and demand, please, explain to me how the price can remain unaffected a week after this many new goyfs dropped.
I think one, if not the main reason is, that most of these fresh goyfs went straight to the shops at these grand prixs or to traders/hoarders. I think a lot of the players there were just happy to instantly get rid of their tarmos to cover some of their traveling costs.
this mm's goyf dropped to around 105 euros on cardmarket.eu when mm product got openend, but if you look at it now, almost nothing's changed compared to it's "original" price (around 120-130 euros). A friend of mine visited utrecht for playing, as well as for trading. He had 8 goyfs and some other stuff from mm15 in his binder. At the end of the day, he called me and told me he now has zero goyfs, but owns an unlimited mox ruby, a mox pearl, a timetwister and a mishras workshop thats close to near mint condition. I don't know why people are so fascinated with this lhurgoyf... at the end of the day, it's just wizards blatant cashcow, a glorified, overhyped vanilla beater.
I'm SO SICK of the "too strong for Standard" argument. It's the new "Dies to removal". We can have a two mana 4/4 with a zillion abilities, but we can't just have Accumulated Knowledge. Makes sense.
We did just have 3 GP's fire off, gobbling up product, right? Can anyone explain to me how Tarmogoyf's release price ($174.99) has not moved one iota despite an estimated 200+ playsets coming in? I mean, all these guys on the threads that have been talking supply and demand, please, explain to me how the price can remain unaffected a week after this many new goyfs dropped.
I think one, if not the main reason is, that most of these fresh goyfs went straight to the shops at these grand prixs or to traders/hoarders. I think a lot of the players there were just happy to instantly get rid of their tarmos to cover some of their traveling costs.
this mm's goyf dropped to around 105 euros on cardmarket.eu when mm product got openend, but if you look at it now, almost nothing's changed. A friend of mine visited utrecht for playing, as well as for trading. He had 8 goyfs and some other stuff from mm15 in his binder. At the end of the day, he called me and told me he now owns an unlimited mox ruby, a mox pearl, a timetwister and a mishras workshop thats close to near mint condition. I don't know why people are so fascinated with this lhurgoyf... at the end of the day, it's just wizards blatant cashcow, a glorified, overhyped vanilla beater.
I was at Vegas and can 100% attest to this. Pretty much all day every day we were there, there was a line of people at the Buy areas of most vendor booths. I'm guilty myself even. Granted I only made about $100 off a dozen or so cards, there were people cashing in pretty big. Immediate cash is a great incentive when most of the population had to drive/fly and stay in hotels.
We did just have 3 GP's fire off, gobbling up product, right? Can anyone explain to me how Tarmogoyf's release price ($174.99) has not moved one iota despite an estimated 200+ playsets coming in? I mean, all these guys on the threads that have been talking supply and demand, please, explain to me how the price can remain unaffected a week after this many new goyfs dropped.
You can get them for less than $150 on ebay. The interesting thing about singles prices is that the drop seems to have occurred leading up to MM15 and then stabilized. For example, the low point for Noble Hierarch was right at $30 on ebay the weekend MM15 was released. Now it's actually up a few dollars, and that's for a rare. So maybe demand is simply outpacing supply for the chase MM15 singles. Another interesting thing is that there seems to be downward pressure on MM15 box prices at this point, people want singles but not boxes.
As far as the price of a box is concerned it seems like they are hitting a pretty hard floor at $199.99. They may be going for less then that but speculators and other shops are probably picking them up as soon as they list to keep the prices artificially inflated. I've been waitingfor that $180-190 shipped range but I'm not convinced its going to come.
Opened this box today:
foil Tarmogoyf
foil Cryptic Command
Noble Hierarch
Primeval Titan
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Fulminator Mage x2
Mox Opal
Dark Confidant
Yea, if this is legit it's one of the best boxes I've heard about. Throw some pics up of that badboy.
Opened this box today:
foil Tarmogoyf
foil Cryptic Command
Noble Hierarch
Primeval Titan
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Fulminator Mage x2
Mox Opal
Dark Confidant
Just bought a foil Ajani Vengeant promo for my cube and 2 MM15 boosters. Got a Swans and Vendilion Clique because I have swag like that.
I put the Clique into the AV's card sleeve with the big $8 on front and showed it to my brother. He almost had an aneurysm when he saw Clique for $8. Many laughs were had.
I put the Clique into the AV's card sleeve with the big $8 on front and showed it to my brother. He almost had an aneurysm when he saw Clique for $8. Many laughs were had.
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
We did just have 3 GP's fire off, gobbling up product, right? Can anyone explain to me how Tarmogoyf's release price ($174.99) has not moved one iota despite an estimated 200+ playsets coming in? I mean, all these guys on the threads that have been talking supply and demand, please, explain to me how the price can remain unaffected a week after this many new goyfs dropped.
Other than what several others have already mentioned (vendors/shops/gp's buying them up), you also have to consider that a product like this and it's namesake GPs (some being record-breaking events attendance-wise) are likely raking in players new to the format and drumming up interest from players that might not have been interested before. So you potentially have all these players that pull a single Goyf...and now need 3 more to build a deck. Thus, this product and the events it spawned are generating a lot more demand for the chase cards than the small influx in supply can sate.
I put the Clique into the AV's card sleeve with the big $8 on front and showed it to my brother. He almost had an aneurysm when he saw Clique for $8. Many laughs were had.
Since '97.
Beautiful. That's one of the best things I've ever seen.
Okay, update time. Here is what we are looking at now for the set looking at the lower end of tcgplayer NM prices or the lower end of ebay NM prices accordingly:
Since many have been talking about EV and given that we have the whole set now, I figured I would put together some information like I usually do in market street to help with the discussion. It should be noted of course that many of these cards will likely drop as a result of the increased supply, but I suspect many have already started to lower slowly due to the impending reprint, so we will see how things shape up (as always and as shown from Modern Masters (the first one) the rares will take the larger hit, while the mythics will take a smaller hit or remain stable over time depending upon the cards.)
Mythics (worth $2 or more):
Tarmogoyf: $145 (+$5)
Vendilion Clique: $45 (-)
Dark Confidant: $40 (-)
Mox Opal: $32 (+$2)
Karn Liberated: $30 (+$2)
Bitterblossom: $28 (+$2)
Emrakul the Aeons Torn: $25 (-$1)
Kozilek Butcher of Truth: $22 (-$2)
Ulamog the Infinite Gyre: $19 (-$1)
Elesh Norn Grand Cenobite: $17 (-)
Iona, Shield of Emeria: $10 (-$3)
Kiki Jiki Mirror Breaker: $10 (-$2)
Primeval Titan: $10 (-)
Tezzeret the Seeker: $6 (-$1)
Total value of mythics: $439 (15 mythics) (+$1)
Rares (worth $2 or more):
Noble Hierarch: $33 (+$1)
Cryptic Command: $30 (+$2)
Fulminator Mage: $16 (+$1)
Spellskite: $16 (+$1)
Splinter Twin: $14 (-)
Leyline of Sanctity:$11 (-)
Daybreak Coronet: $9.50 (-$1.50)
Wilt-Leaf Liege: $8 (-$1)
Blinkmoth Nexus: $5 (-.50)
All is Dust: $5 (-.50)
Etched Champion: $3 (+.50)
Eye of Ugin: $2.50 (-.50)
Creakwood Liege: $2 (-.50)
Surgical Extraction:$2 (-.50)
Hurkyl's Recall: $2 (-)
Total value of Rares: $175 (53 rares) (-)
Uncommons (worth $1 or more):
Remand: $5.50 (-.50)
Lightning Bolt: $1.50 (+.25)
Electrolyze: $1.25 (+.25)
Eldrazi Temple: $1 (-)
Total value of uncommons: $13 (-)
Commons (worth at least .50):
Smash to Smithereens: .55 (-.15)
Vines of Vastwood: .50 (-)
Total value of commons: $3 (-$1)
Complete set Value:
Mythics: $439 (+$1)
Rares: $175 (-)
Uncommon/Common sets: $14 (-$1)
Total set value: $628 (-)
Overall average box value (with foil adjustment):
Mythics: $439/15 = $29.27/mythic x 3 mythics/box = $87.80 (+.20)
Rares: $175/53 = $3.30/rare x 21 rares/box = $69.40 (-)
Uncommon/Common sets: $14 x .9 = $12 (-$1)
Foils (adjusted lower): $27 (-$1)
Total overall average box value (with foil adjustment): $196 (-$2)
Only a slight decline this time, as singles prices seem to have largely stabilized, even as box prices have continued to decline, I think many people have decided that singles buying is probably a better option than the box lottery, though with box prices as low as $199 shipped now on ebay its basically fairly even as far as overall average value. The problem of course, is that both the rares and mythics are rather top heavy, with the top few rares making up the majority of the rare value, and of course the skew that tarmogoyf has to the overall average for the mythics. As such, when buying boxes, there is going to be a great deal of variance all around, most boxes should average themselves out, but there will be plenty of low value boxes, to go along with some high value boxes in the mix. As for individual packs, unfortunately there are plenty of bulk rares in the set, that it really is a bit of a crapshoot as far as that goes, as some have said, its a bit like buying a lottery ticket and hoping for the best. The foils as mentioned, were adjusted lower, simply due to the fact that the true overall average value would skew so much worse than normal, that I preferred to go with a more conservative estimate (which even then could end up much lower, or could be crazily higher). Values could still drop some from here, but things do seem to be largely stabilizing, so this just gives a look at the current spot value for the set, for now though the $196 overall average box valuation at least gives a ballpark idea in addition to the singles values shown, what you would be working with. Anyhow, enjoy the information.
Definitely not a winner - I've got a below-average number of Mythics in a set where most of the values are in the Mythics. In fact if you took the numbers from the post above, I only got the average value in the commons and uncommons, my rares amount to about 2/3rd of the average box value and the Mythics, less than half of the average value. The total from the nonfoils would be about only $100 based on the information above.
Fortunately for me, my foils were quite a great lot:
I got the most expensive foil common and uncommon from my box, as well as 2 foil rares and a foil mythic. A rough estimate would be that the combined value of my foils is slightly higher than the combined value of my non-foils.
Since I pre-ordered a box before release (and I don't buy online), the total value I got would still be a loss, but not a terribly huge one. I'm okay with it and am glad the foils helped a lot in minimizing the losses, since I knew from the start I wanted to draft this set and usually the better decision is to get an entire box to draft with my playgroup (since I keep all the cards and the variance of an entire box is usually lower.)
I can't remember the composition of each pack (obviously), but assuming every single card worth about pack price is in a separate booster, only about 8 boosters (1/3rd of the box) would have contained a card that would pay for the pack.
Well you almost made me feel better about my box; that someone had the same crappy box value as I, but then you went and revealed the foils and I slipped back into depression. My notable rares were: Fulminator Mage Noble Hierarch Spellskite All is Dust
Definitely not a winner - I've got a below-average number of Mythics in a set where most of the values are in the Mythics. In fact if you took the numbers from the post above, I only got the average value in the commons and uncommons, my rares amount to about 2/3rd of the average box value and the Mythics, less than half of the average value. The total from the nonfoils would be about only $100 based on the information above.
Fortunately for me, my foils were quite a great lot:
I got the most expensive foil common and uncommon from my box, as well as 2 foil rares and a foil mythic. A rough estimate would be that the combined value of my foils is slightly higher than the combined value of my non-foils.
Since I pre-ordered a box before release (and I don't buy online), the total value I got would still be a loss, but not a terribly huge one. I'm okay with it and am glad the foils helped a lot in minimizing the losses, since I knew from the start I wanted to draft this set and usually the better decision is to get an entire box to draft with my playgroup (since I keep all the cards and the variance of an entire box is usually lower.)
I can't remember the composition of each pack (obviously), but assuming every single card worth about pack price is in a separate booster, only about 8 boosters (1/3rd of the box) would have contained a card that would pay for the pack.
EDIT: Added Card Tags
You may not be a winner, but you did pretty well overall. It could have been MUCH worse; I split a box where our only mythic was Tezzeret.
You may not be a winner, but you did pretty well overall. It could have been MUCH worse; I split a box where our only mythic was Tezzeret.
Yes. I'm aware my box could have easily been much worse, given how much more variable foils are compared to non-foils. Really thankful for the foils.
I got too busy listing my box and went off-track and forgot about the main point concerning drafting - I know 1 box is definitely not statistic material, but given how my non-foils fared and the value of my box was saved by the foils (which is as mentioned, a very variable factor) and as mentioned in the initial post, only about 8 packs held value worth the price of the pack, assuming that the 8 cards I mentioned weren't in the same packs (since I couldn't remember the composition of the packs).
This box was lucky that even if I didn't draft it and opened it, the total value would have been the same (pretty well overall), but had this box been opened and sold as single packs or used for (regular) drafts, only 1/3rd of the packs would "hold value or more".
Even more so in a draft, where each person opens 3 packs, pretty much only 1 card (Foil Kozilek) would carry enough value for all 3 packs. Even opening any of the other 7 cards would not cover 3 packs, meaning you either had to open some other (slightly) valuable card to make up for the difference, depending on which card you opened. A foil Smash to Smithereens may roughly cover a pack, but if you're drafting, you basically need to open a Mythic or the foil Remand from my box to make up for your draft costs.
It would be impossible for all players to be winners - only 1 card commands value over the entire 3 draft packs, and there are only other 7 cards that are worth around pack price or more. It would probably end up along the lines of "3 other people broke about even from their packs and the rest lost" or "1 other winner from combined packs, 1 other person who broke even, and the rest lost." That's about 1/4th to 1/8th a chance to be a "winner" by regular drafting - which is technically worse than opening packs (at 1/3rd) even.
This variance will hold true whether the box is decent, a winner or not (not counting wrongly packaged boxes, of course).
I wouldn't say what I did was the absolute correct choice (buying a box to draft and keeping all the cards), even if boxes do generally "balance out more", they still don't completely "balance out" and can still skew in both directions. It also prevents value-drafting since the cards will eventually belong to the owner anyway, so it gives a proper "taste" of the Limited format. So I do believe my choice was still the most optimal, at least from a Limited-Format perspective.
Compared to MM2013 at the same point in time (a few weeks after release, not sure if the GP had taken place already) have the prices for most of the expensive cards followed a similar trend? I mean the eldrazi titans are reasonnably priced now, I might get a Kozilek and Ulamog for my Sydri EDH deck
Stil too expensive to draft for my taste (it's a solid draft, just not 35 dollars nice) but I think most people who complain about card prices ought to be pleased at this point in time.
The only other cards over $2
Tezzerat
Daybreak Coronet
Remand
Pretty rough. I didn't even get a foil rare, I would have been excited for a bad one.
My second box I split with my buddy was much better even though no goyf.
Emrakul
Iona
Clique
Noble Hieracrch
Cyrptic Command
Wilt-Leaf Leige
Splinter Twin
Surgical Extraction
Blinkmoth
Foil Kikki-Jikki, Mana Leak, Smash to Smitherineens, Balefire, Telling Time
It was much easier to split when the value was spread out. But this kind of medium/good value has been rare in boxes I have seen.
After 4 boxes, popped my first Comet Storm. Very disheartening BUT the box itself was still a winner with foil kiki jiki, foil cryptic command, dark confidant, vendilion clique, fulminator mage, Ulamog, etc.
Anyone heard anything about whether the print run is still going strong or not?
I have 12 boxes total coming (wasn't going to bother but then ebay had an 8% back deal so figured what the heck?)
First box wasn't anything to write home about, goes to show the overall poor distribution of the set and all or nothing nature of how the set/boxes tend to go...
Foils of note: 1 foil rare/mythic (yes only 1...) Surgical Extraction, Foil Thoughtcast, Foil Frogmite (all the rest of the foils were bulk).
Mythics: Only 2 mythics... Karn Liberated, Primeval Titan
Rares of note (weren't terrible necessarily): Noble Hierarch, Splinter Twin, Leyline of Sanctity, Wilt-Leaf Liege, a few $2 rares, and the rest bulk.
Uncommons of note: 1 Remand, 2 Electrolyze, 1 Lightning Bolt
Overall value of content of box: $150 vs the $180 I paid after the 8% back from eBay. Not exactly spectacular, and there only being 2 mythics and only 1 foil rare really was a bummer, and the quality on many of the foils really was awful (lines/scuffing/etc.) But that was only box 1 of 12, so things should hopefully average themselves out in the end. As far as I'm concerned If I can come out with an average of around $200 per box so I can break even after re-selling fees I will be 100% happy. This is just a little fun for me to have opening something different, expensive as it is.
I have 12 boxes total coming (wasn't going to bother but then ebay had an 8% back deal so figured what the heck?)
First box wasn't anything to write home about, goes to show the overall poor distribution of the set and all or nothing nature of how the set/boxes tend to go...
Foils of note: 1 foil rare/mythic (yes only 1...) Surgical Extraction, Foil Thoughtcast, Foil Frogmite (all the rest of the foils were bulk).
Mythics: Only 2 mythics... Karn Liberated, Primeval Titan
Rares of note (weren't terrible necessarily): Noble Hierarch, Splinter Twin, Leyline of Sanctity, Wilt-Leaf Liege, a few $2 rares, and the rest bulk.
Uncommons of note: 1 Remand, 2 Electrolyze, 1 Lightning Bolt
Overall value of content of box: $150 vs the $180 I paid after the 8% back from eBay. Not exactly spectacular, and there only being 2 mythics and only 1 foil rare really was a bummer, and the quality on many of the foils really was awful (lines/scuffing/etc.) But that was only box 1 of 12, so things should hopefully average themselves out in the end. As far as I'm concerned If I can come out with an average of around $200 per box so I can break even after re-selling fees I will be 100% happy. This is just a little fun for me to have opening something different, expensive as it is.
Considering that you would not get your value back from any new set if you popped a box, I think this special set is beautiful for value per box! If you can get them for $190 or so a box is pretty great value if you pop them. I see these going up in value if kept sealed as well.
I have 12 boxes total coming (wasn't going to bother but then ebay had an 8% back deal so figured what the heck?)
First box wasn't anything to write home about, goes to show the overall poor distribution of the set and all or nothing nature of how the set/boxes tend to go...
Foils of note: 1 foil rare/mythic (yes only 1...) Surgical Extraction, Foil Thoughtcast, Foil Frogmite (all the rest of the foils were bulk).
Mythics: Only 2 mythics... Karn Liberated, Primeval Titan
Rares of note (weren't terrible necessarily): Noble Hierarch, Splinter Twin, Leyline of Sanctity, Wilt-Leaf Liege, a few $2 rares, and the rest bulk.
Uncommons of note: 1 Remand, 2 Electrolyze, 1 Lightning Bolt
Overall value of content of box: $150 vs the $180 I paid after the 8% back from eBay. Not exactly spectacular, and there only being 2 mythics and only 1 foil rare really was a bummer, and the quality on many of the foils really was awful (lines/scuffing/etc.) But that was only box 1 of 12, so things should hopefully average themselves out in the end. As far as I'm concerned If I can come out with an average of around $200 per box so I can break even after re-selling fees I will be 100% happy. This is just a little fun for me to have opening something different, expensive as it is.
Considering that you would not get your value back from any new set if you popped a box, I think this special set is beautiful for value per box! If you can get them for $190 or so a box is pretty great value if you pop them. I see these going up in value if kept sealed as well.
Except that the overall average box value is only $196 (as per my update earlier on this page from 10 days ago), and if you are paying $190/box then in general its just better to buy singles you need unless you feel like gambling. In my case I tend to just buy and sell various things, without the fun aspect to magic anymore since I don't really buy anything to keep or use myself. From a profit margin perspective there are much better things than Modern Masters to play around with. However for me, something like a modern masters is unique and different and thusly something that I can buy and open for fun, and if I can end up breaking even after selling cost then hence the "What the heck?" in my last post about going for it. As for the boxes eventually being worth more, in 6-months to a year I could see it, but it wont be anything like the original modern masters which had a smaller print run and was much more balanced overall. This set is too top heavy, which leads to much more swingy box values, even moreso when you end up getting less mythics or foil rares than the expected overall average per box.
Inevitably if I was a player and I was looking to get cards I wanted, I would, at this point, just buy the cards I needed with that $190 rather than gamble with a box that I might break even on, and even then would end up with a bunch of stuff I wouldn't need amid a couple cards here or there that I might be able to make use of. For now I still recommend just buying singles rather than busting boxes (unless you can get the boxes for super cheap) or you plan to draft the set with friends.
As of now you can get boxes as low as $190 shipped on ebay (or at the very least 2x boxes for $380), the market is still flooded with boxes/cases/etc at this point, and demand really isn't strong enough to cause it to rise up nearly as much as the original modern masters did. I expect within a year we might see the boxes recover back to msrp or possibly a tiny bit higher on places like ebay, in the meantime I expect to see the boxes remain around the $190 price point on the low end on ebay buy it nows and could even drop a little lower, but we'll have to wait and see.
And as for the standard box comparison, you can often find standard boxes for between $80-$90 online depending upon the set, and in many cases the overall average box value for those is at or very close to those costs, so modern masters itself isn't really anything special from a value standpoint vs. the cost of the boxes. That's also why, except for the rare exception like early strong values that KTK had when it came out, I don't tend to bother buying boxes anymore, just isn't enough value to bother. Once again Modern Masters 2015 here being an exception to my rule because Its different and fun and with any luck things should average themselves out and after fees to sell, I should break even, which is fine enough for things I am opening for fun vs. solely for buying to sell and make a profit.
I have 12 boxes total coming (wasn't going to bother but then ebay had an 8% back deal so figured what the heck?)
First box wasn't anything to write home about, goes to show the overall poor distribution of the set and all or nothing nature of how the set/boxes tend to go...
Foils of note: 1 foil rare/mythic (yes only 1...) Surgical Extraction, Foil Thoughtcast, Foil Frogmite (all the rest of the foils were bulk).
Mythics: Only 2 mythics... Karn Liberated, Primeval Titan
Rares of note (weren't terrible necessarily): Noble Hierarch, Splinter Twin, Leyline of Sanctity, Wilt-Leaf Liege, a few $2 rares, and the rest bulk.
Uncommons of note: 1 Remand, 2 Electrolyze, 1 Lightning Bolt
Overall value of content of box: $150 vs the $180 I paid after the 8% back from eBay. Not exactly spectacular, and there only being 2 mythics and only 1 foil rare really was a bummer, and the quality on many of the foils really was awful (lines/scuffing/etc.) But that was only box 1 of 12, so things should hopefully average themselves out in the end. As far as I'm concerned If I can come out with an average of around $200 per box so I can break even after re-selling fees I will be 100% happy. This is just a little fun for me to have opening something different, expensive as it is.
Considering that you would not get your value back from any new set if you popped a box, I think this special set is beautiful for value per box! If you can get them for $190 or so a box is pretty great value if you pop them. I see these going up in value if kept sealed as well.
Except that the overall average box value is only $196 (as per my update earlier on this page from 10 days ago), and if you are paying $190/box then in general its just better to buy singles you need unless you feel like gambling. In my case I tend to just buy and sell various things, without the fun aspect to magic anymore since I don't really buy anything to keep or use myself. From a profit margin perspective there are much better things than Modern Masters to play around with. However for me, something like a modern masters is unique and different and thusly something that I can buy and open for fun, and if I can end up breaking even after selling cost then hence the "What the heck?" in my last post about going for it. As for the boxes eventually being worth more, in 6-months to a year I could see it, but it wont be anything like the original modern masters which had a smaller print run and was much more balanced overall. This set is too top heavy, which leads to much more swingy box values, even moreso when you end up getting less mythics or foil rares than the expected overall average per box.
Inevitably if I was a player and I was looking to get cards I wanted, I would, at this point, just buy the cards I needed with that $190 rather than gamble with a box that I might break even on, and even then would end up with a bunch of stuff I wouldn't need amid a couple cards here or there that I might be able to make use of. For now I still recommend just buying singles rather than busting boxes (unless you can get the boxes for super cheap) or you plan to draft the set with friends.
As of now you can get boxes as low as $190 shipped on ebay (or at the very least 2x boxes for $380), the market is still flooded with boxes/cases/etc at this point, and demand really isn't strong enough to cause it to rise up nearly as much as the original modern masters did. I expect within a year we might see the boxes recover back to msrp or possibly a tiny bit higher on places like ebay, in the meantime I expect to see the boxes remain around the $190 price point on the low end on ebay buy it nows and could even drop a little lower, but we'll have to wait and see.
And as for the standard box comparison, you can often find standard boxes for between $80-$90 online depending upon the set, and in many cases the overall average box value for those is at or very close to those costs, so modern masters itself isn't really anything special from a value standpoint vs. the cost of the boxes. That's also why, except for the rare exception like early strong values that KTK had when it came out, I don't tend to bother buying boxes anymore, just isn't enough value to bother. Once again Modern Masters 2015 here being an exception to my rule because Its different and fun and with any luck things should average themselves out and after fees to sell, I should break even, which is fine enough for things I am opening for fun vs. solely for buying to sell and make a profit.
It absolutely all depends on what you want to do with it. I think the swingy aspect of it coupled with the big time value bomb cards will make this very valuable as a sealed box within a few years. In that way, I think it's a great investment. I only draft now-a-days because I think it's awesome, so while I love popping boxes/packs whenever possible, I also don't really keep anything as it is useless to me aside from monetary value. To have an average box value above the prices for the boxes seems amazing. I find it hard to believe that new set boxes such as Dragons of Tarkir, etc. have on average $80 to $90 per box in value if opened, but I could be wrong there as I don't follow such things too closely.
I think long term these will be extremely valuable if kept sealed due to their relatively limited print run and fun draft environment with the ability to pull great, valuable cards. It will remain to be seen what happens though!
Overall ended up averaging $205/box out of those 10 boxes (about $10 above the expected average.
The boxes themselves though, only contained about 2.2 mythics on average (only a few had 3, most had 2, and a couple only had 1 ...
However, even though the foil rare/mythic count was probably only 1.5 per box (a good bit lower than expected), I did luck into 3 particularly good foils: Karn, Dark Confidant, and Vendilion Clique.
For the non-foil mythics, I did okay overall, though out of 10 boxes I got only 1 tarmogoyf, and 4 comet storms (lucky me :p)...
Rares overall weren't bad either, though there is WAYYYYYYY too much bulk garbage in the rare category in this set given what it is.
As you can see from the numbers above, the boxes are ultra-swingy. And the only reason the three top boxes were the three top boxes were because one had a tarmogoyf and a foil confidant, and the other two had one of the other two top mythic foils I pulled in addition to other generally good cards. The bad boxes ($105/$115 respectively) were just flat out bad. As was said before, this set is a massive gamble to open. I figured opening 10+ boxes would allow me to average out to be able to at least break even when re-selling the cards online versus the price I paid for the boxes, and though I only got the 1 tarmogoyf I still managed to pull it off, though only just barely.
As before my recommendation is simply to buy singles if you are thinking of buying packs/a box of the set, youll get what you want and wont have to worry about a potentially horrific box like a couple of the ones mentioned above.
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Yup.
I've seen the prices for just about every other major card bounce up and down the past 2 weeks.
I think one, if not the main reason is, that most of these fresh goyfs went straight to the shops at these grand prixs or to traders/hoarders. I think a lot of the players there were just happy to instantly get rid of their tarmos to cover some of their traveling costs.
this mm's goyf dropped to around 105 euros on cardmarket.eu when mm product got openend, but if you look at it now, almost nothing's changed compared to it's "original" price (around 120-130 euros). A friend of mine visited utrecht for playing, as well as for trading. He had 8 goyfs and some other stuff from mm15 in his binder. At the end of the day, he called me and told me he now has zero goyfs, but owns an unlimited mox ruby, a mox pearl, a timetwister and a mishras workshop thats close to near mint condition. I don't know why people are so fascinated with this lhurgoyf... at the end of the day, it's just wizards blatant cashcow, a glorified, overhyped vanilla beater.
I was at Vegas and can 100% attest to this. Pretty much all day every day we were there, there was a line of people at the Buy areas of most vendor booths. I'm guilty myself even. Granted I only made about $100 off a dozen or so cards, there were people cashing in pretty big. Immediate cash is a great incentive when most of the population had to drive/fly and stay in hotels.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
You can get them for less than $150 on ebay. The interesting thing about singles prices is that the drop seems to have occurred leading up to MM15 and then stabilized. For example, the low point for Noble Hierarch was right at $30 on ebay the weekend MM15 was released. Now it's actually up a few dollars, and that's for a rare. So maybe demand is simply outpacing supply for the chase MM15 singles. Another interesting thing is that there seems to be downward pressure on MM15 box prices at this point, people want singles but not boxes.
Yea, if this is legit it's one of the best boxes I've heard about. Throw some pics up of that badboy.
0AFFINITY0
RRED DECK WINSR
GELVESG
I put the Clique into the AV's card sleeve with the big $8 on front and showed it to my brother. He almost had an aneurysm when he saw Clique for $8. Many laughs were had.
Since '97.
Reprint Stasis!
Control needs more love.
EDH:
Momir Vig, Simic Visionary
Melek, Izzet Paragon
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Bruna, Light of Alabaster
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Rhys the Redeemed
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
Sen Triplets
The Mimeoplasm
WUBRGSliver OverlordGRBUW
WUBRGSliver Hivelord(Superfriends)GRBUW
Other than what several others have already mentioned (vendors/shops/gp's buying them up), you also have to consider that a product like this and it's namesake GPs (some being record-breaking events attendance-wise) are likely raking in players new to the format and drumming up interest from players that might not have been interested before. So you potentially have all these players that pull a single Goyf...and now need 3 more to build a deck. Thus, this product and the events it spawned are generating a lot more demand for the chase cards than the small influx in supply can sate.
Beautiful. That's one of the best things I've ever seen.
Since many have been talking about EV and given that we have the whole set now, I figured I would put together some information like I usually do in market street to help with the discussion. It should be noted of course that many of these cards will likely drop as a result of the increased supply, but I suspect many have already started to lower slowly due to the impending reprint, so we will see how things shape up (as always and as shown from Modern Masters (the first one) the rares will take the larger hit, while the mythics will take a smaller hit or remain stable over time depending upon the cards.)
Mythics (worth $2 or more):
Tarmogoyf: $145 (+$5)
Vendilion Clique: $45 (-)
Dark Confidant: $40 (-)
Mox Opal: $32 (+$2)
Karn Liberated: $30 (+$2)
Bitterblossom: $28 (+$2)
Emrakul the Aeons Torn: $25 (-$1)
Kozilek Butcher of Truth: $22 (-$2)
Ulamog the Infinite Gyre: $19 (-$1)
Elesh Norn Grand Cenobite: $17 (-)
Iona, Shield of Emeria: $10 (-$3)
Kiki Jiki Mirror Breaker: $10 (-$2)
Primeval Titan: $10 (-)
Tezzeret the Seeker: $6 (-$1)
Total value of mythics: $439 (15 mythics) (+$1)
Rares (worth $2 or more):
Noble Hierarch: $33 (+$1)
Cryptic Command: $30 (+$2)
Fulminator Mage: $16 (+$1)
Spellskite: $16 (+$1)
Splinter Twin: $14 (-)
Leyline of Sanctity:$11 (-)
Daybreak Coronet: $9.50 (-$1.50)
Wilt-Leaf Liege: $8 (-$1)
Blinkmoth Nexus: $5 (-.50)
All is Dust: $5 (-.50)
Etched Champion: $3 (+.50)
Eye of Ugin: $2.50 (-.50)
Creakwood Liege: $2 (-.50)
Surgical Extraction:$2 (-.50)
Hurkyl's Recall: $2 (-)
Total value of Rares: $175 (53 rares) (-)
Uncommons (worth $1 or more):
Remand: $5.50 (-.50)
Lightning Bolt: $1.50 (+.25)
Electrolyze: $1.25 (+.25)
Eldrazi Temple: $1 (-)
Total value of uncommons: $13 (-)
Commons (worth at least .50):
Smash to Smithereens: .55 (-.15)
Vines of Vastwood: .50 (-)
Total value of commons: $3 (-$1)
Complete set Value:
Mythics: $439 (+$1)
Rares: $175 (-)
Uncommon/Common sets: $14 (-$1)
Total set value: $628 (-)
Overall average box value (with foil adjustment):
Mythics: $439/15 = $29.27/mythic x 3 mythics/box = $87.80 (+.20)
Rares: $175/53 = $3.30/rare x 21 rares/box = $69.40 (-)
Uncommon/Common sets: $14 x .9 = $12 (-$1)
Foils (adjusted lower): $27 (-$1)
Total overall average box value (with foil adjustment): $196 (-$2)
Only a slight decline this time, as singles prices seem to have largely stabilized, even as box prices have continued to decline, I think many people have decided that singles buying is probably a better option than the box lottery, though with box prices as low as $199 shipped now on ebay its basically fairly even as far as overall average value. The problem of course, is that both the rares and mythics are rather top heavy, with the top few rares making up the majority of the rare value, and of course the skew that tarmogoyf has to the overall average for the mythics. As such, when buying boxes, there is going to be a great deal of variance all around, most boxes should average themselves out, but there will be plenty of low value boxes, to go along with some high value boxes in the mix. As for individual packs, unfortunately there are plenty of bulk rares in the set, that it really is a bit of a crapshoot as far as that goes, as some have said, its a bit like buying a lottery ticket and hoping for the best. The foils as mentioned, were adjusted lower, simply due to the fact that the true overall average value would skew so much worse than normal, that I preferred to go with a more conservative estimate (which even then could end up much lower, or could be crazily higher). Values could still drop some from here, but things do seem to be largely stabilizing, so this just gives a look at the current spot value for the set, for now though the $196 overall average box valuation at least gives a ballpark idea in addition to the singles values shown, what you would be working with. Anyhow, enjoy the information.
Non-foil cards I got from my box that hold some value (or at least see some play in Modern):
3x Vines of Vastwood
3x Smash to Smithereens
Eldrazi Temple
Simic Growth Chamber
Cranial Plating
Electrolyze
Lightning Bolt
Remand
Mirran Crusader
Hurkyl's Recall
Creakwood Liege
Eye of Ugin
Daybreak Coronet
Splinter Twin
Spellskite
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Definitely not a winner - I've got a below-average number of Mythics in a set where most of the values are in the Mythics. In fact if you took the numbers from the post above, I only got the average value in the commons and uncommons, my rares amount to about 2/3rd of the average box value and the Mythics, less than half of the average value. The total from the nonfoils would be about only $100 based on the information above.
Fortunately for me, my foils were quite a great lot:
Evolving Wilds
Mana Leak
Telling Time
Smash to Smithereens
Dispatch
Remand
Ghost Council of Orzhova
Puppeteer Clique
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
I got the most expensive foil common and uncommon from my box, as well as 2 foil rares and a foil mythic. A rough estimate would be that the combined value of my foils is slightly higher than the combined value of my non-foils.
Since I pre-ordered a box before release (and I don't buy online), the total value I got would still be a loss, but not a terribly huge one. I'm okay with it and am glad the foils helped a lot in minimizing the losses, since I knew from the start I wanted to draft this set and usually the better decision is to get an entire box to draft with my playgroup (since I keep all the cards and the variance of an entire box is usually lower.)
I can't remember the composition of each pack (obviously), but assuming every single card worth about pack price is in a separate booster, only about 8 boosters (1/3rd of the box) would have contained a card that would pay for the pack.
EDIT: Added Card Tags
Fulminator Mage
Noble Hierarch
Spellskite
All is Dust
And that's all.....My mythics were:
Tezzeret the Seeker
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Again, that's all.....My foil rare:
Spellskite
Other Foils:
Mana Leak
Combust
Smash to Smithereens
I didn't pull a single Lightning Bolt and only 1 Electrolyze as well as 1 Remand. So, I've learned my lesson.....maybe. I might still draft some packs
You may not be a winner, but you did pretty well overall. It could have been MUCH worse; I split a box where our only mythic was Tezzeret.
UR Blue-Red Control
Modern:
UBR Grixis Control
UWR Jeskai Control
Yes. I'm aware my box could have easily been much worse, given how much more variable foils are compared to non-foils. Really thankful for the foils.
I got too busy listing my box and went off-track and forgot about the main point concerning drafting - I know 1 box is definitely not statistic material, but given how my non-foils fared and the value of my box was saved by the foils (which is as mentioned, a very variable factor) and as mentioned in the initial post, only about 8 packs held value worth the price of the pack, assuming that the 8 cards I mentioned weren't in the same packs (since I couldn't remember the composition of the packs).
This box was lucky that even if I didn't draft it and opened it, the total value would have been the same (pretty well overall), but had this box been opened and sold as single packs or used for (regular) drafts, only 1/3rd of the packs would "hold value or more".
Even more so in a draft, where each person opens 3 packs, pretty much only 1 card (Foil Kozilek) would carry enough value for all 3 packs. Even opening any of the other 7 cards would not cover 3 packs, meaning you either had to open some other (slightly) valuable card to make up for the difference, depending on which card you opened. A foil Smash to Smithereens may roughly cover a pack, but if you're drafting, you basically need to open a Mythic or the foil Remand from my box to make up for your draft costs.
It would be impossible for all players to be winners - only 1 card commands value over the entire 3 draft packs, and there are only other 7 cards that are worth around pack price or more. It would probably end up along the lines of "3 other people broke about even from their packs and the rest lost" or "1 other winner from combined packs, 1 other person who broke even, and the rest lost." That's about 1/4th to 1/8th a chance to be a "winner" by regular drafting - which is technically worse than opening packs (at 1/3rd) even.
This variance will hold true whether the box is decent, a winner or not (not counting wrongly packaged boxes, of course).
I wouldn't say what I did was the absolute correct choice (buying a box to draft and keeping all the cards), even if boxes do generally "balance out more", they still don't completely "balance out" and can still skew in both directions. It also prevents value-drafting since the cards will eventually belong to the owner anyway, so it gives a proper "taste" of the Limited format. So I do believe my choice was still the most optimal, at least from a Limited-Format perspective.
Stil too expensive to draft for my taste (it's a solid draft, just not 35 dollars nice) but I think most people who complain about card prices ought to be pleased at this point in time.
The only other cards over $2
Tezzerat
Daybreak Coronet
Remand
Pretty rough. I didn't even get a foil rare, I would have been excited for a bad one.
My second box I split with my buddy was much better even though no goyf.
Emrakul
Iona
Clique
Noble Hieracrch
Cyrptic Command
Wilt-Leaf Leige
Splinter Twin
Surgical Extraction
Blinkmoth
Foil Kikki-Jikki, Mana Leak, Smash to Smitherineens, Balefire, Telling Time
It was much easier to split when the value was spread out. But this kind of medium/good value has been rare in boxes I have seen.
Anyone heard anything about whether the print run is still going strong or not?
First box wasn't anything to write home about, goes to show the overall poor distribution of the set and all or nothing nature of how the set/boxes tend to go...
Foils of note: 1 foil rare/mythic (yes only 1...) Surgical Extraction, Foil Thoughtcast, Foil Frogmite (all the rest of the foils were bulk).
Mythics: Only 2 mythics... Karn Liberated, Primeval Titan
Rares of note (weren't terrible necessarily): Noble Hierarch, Splinter Twin, Leyline of Sanctity, Wilt-Leaf Liege, a few $2 rares, and the rest bulk.
Uncommons of note: 1 Remand, 2 Electrolyze, 1 Lightning Bolt
Overall value of content of box: $150 vs the $180 I paid after the 8% back from eBay. Not exactly spectacular, and there only being 2 mythics and only 1 foil rare really was a bummer, and the quality on many of the foils really was awful (lines/scuffing/etc.) But that was only box 1 of 12, so things should hopefully average themselves out in the end. As far as I'm concerned If I can come out with an average of around $200 per box so I can break even after re-selling fees I will be 100% happy. This is just a little fun for me to have opening something different, expensive as it is.
Considering that you would not get your value back from any new set if you popped a box, I think this special set is beautiful for value per box! If you can get them for $190 or so a box is pretty great value if you pop them. I see these going up in value if kept sealed as well.
Except that the overall average box value is only $196 (as per my update earlier on this page from 10 days ago), and if you are paying $190/box then in general its just better to buy singles you need unless you feel like gambling. In my case I tend to just buy and sell various things, without the fun aspect to magic anymore since I don't really buy anything to keep or use myself. From a profit margin perspective there are much better things than Modern Masters to play around with. However for me, something like a modern masters is unique and different and thusly something that I can buy and open for fun, and if I can end up breaking even after selling cost then hence the "What the heck?" in my last post about going for it. As for the boxes eventually being worth more, in 6-months to a year I could see it, but it wont be anything like the original modern masters which had a smaller print run and was much more balanced overall. This set is too top heavy, which leads to much more swingy box values, even moreso when you end up getting less mythics or foil rares than the expected overall average per box.
Inevitably if I was a player and I was looking to get cards I wanted, I would, at this point, just buy the cards I needed with that $190 rather than gamble with a box that I might break even on, and even then would end up with a bunch of stuff I wouldn't need amid a couple cards here or there that I might be able to make use of. For now I still recommend just buying singles rather than busting boxes (unless you can get the boxes for super cheap) or you plan to draft the set with friends.
As of now you can get boxes as low as $190 shipped on ebay (or at the very least 2x boxes for $380), the market is still flooded with boxes/cases/etc at this point, and demand really isn't strong enough to cause it to rise up nearly as much as the original modern masters did. I expect within a year we might see the boxes recover back to msrp or possibly a tiny bit higher on places like ebay, in the meantime I expect to see the boxes remain around the $190 price point on the low end on ebay buy it nows and could even drop a little lower, but we'll have to wait and see.
And as for the standard box comparison, you can often find standard boxes for between $80-$90 online depending upon the set, and in many cases the overall average box value for those is at or very close to those costs, so modern masters itself isn't really anything special from a value standpoint vs. the cost of the boxes. That's also why, except for the rare exception like early strong values that KTK had when it came out, I don't tend to bother buying boxes anymore, just isn't enough value to bother. Once again Modern Masters 2015 here being an exception to my rule because Its different and fun and with any luck things should average themselves out and after fees to sell, I should break even, which is fine enough for things I am opening for fun vs. solely for buying to sell and make a profit.
It absolutely all depends on what you want to do with it. I think the swingy aspect of it coupled with the big time value bomb cards will make this very valuable as a sealed box within a few years. In that way, I think it's a great investment. I only draft now-a-days because I think it's awesome, so while I love popping boxes/packs whenever possible, I also don't really keep anything as it is useless to me aside from monetary value. To have an average box value above the prices for the boxes seems amazing. I find it hard to believe that new set boxes such as Dragons of Tarkir, etc. have on average $80 to $90 per box in value if opened, but I could be wrong there as I don't follow such things too closely.
I think long term these will be extremely valuable if kept sealed due to their relatively limited print run and fun draft environment with the ability to pull great, valuable cards. It will remain to be seen what happens though!
$150, $175, $105 (ouch!), $235, $290 (yay!), $180, $335 (yay!), $195, $270 (yay!), and $115 (boo )...
Overall ended up averaging $205/box out of those 10 boxes (about $10 above the expected average.
The boxes themselves though, only contained about 2.2 mythics on average (only a few had 3, most had 2, and a couple only had 1 ...
However, even though the foil rare/mythic count was probably only 1.5 per box (a good bit lower than expected), I did luck into 3 particularly good foils: Karn, Dark Confidant, and Vendilion Clique.
For the non-foil mythics, I did okay overall, though out of 10 boxes I got only 1 tarmogoyf, and 4 comet storms (lucky me :p)...
Rares overall weren't bad either, though there is WAYYYYYYY too much bulk garbage in the rare category in this set given what it is.
As you can see from the numbers above, the boxes are ultra-swingy. And the only reason the three top boxes were the three top boxes were because one had a tarmogoyf and a foil confidant, and the other two had one of the other two top mythic foils I pulled in addition to other generally good cards. The bad boxes ($105/$115 respectively) were just flat out bad. As was said before, this set is a massive gamble to open. I figured opening 10+ boxes would allow me to average out to be able to at least break even when re-selling the cards online versus the price I paid for the boxes, and though I only got the 1 tarmogoyf I still managed to pull it off, though only just barely.
As before my recommendation is simply to buy singles if you are thinking of buying packs/a box of the set, youll get what you want and wont have to worry about a potentially horrific box like a couple of the ones mentioned above.