So... we've seen Secret Lairs being used for a variety of purposes since their introduction. Some (like the April Fools Day Joke or Ultimate Edition) have gone to Local Game Stores to support them. Others have supported charities. At least one has introduced entirely new game pieces to our game. As Wizards explores what these cards can do, however, I want to imagine a hypothetical situation in which lairs are used to create a product that literally would not work through any other means.
Imagine if you would a sealed, pseudorandomized product that is highly implied to contain more value (actual value, not a couple of good cards and a mountain of chaff) than the price it is being sold for.
Q: Wouldn't the price of the product increase almost automatically to reflect demand?
A: Wizards would be selling directly to players and could thus directly dictate the price of the product to the masses (outside of resellers). Q: If the prices can't raise to meet demand, wouldn't the product be hoarded by scalpers/investors and become inaccessible?
A: Wizards would be printing to demand, sidestepping the issue of scarcity (at least initially). Q: If prices can't raise and quantity matches demand, wouldn't that substantially lower the value of everything inside the product?
A: This product would only be sold for the duration of a single day. Even if players show substantial interest in the product, a single day of sales can only harm the value of cards within by so much. Q: What about the normal terrible items in every pack existing for limited formats (AKA Chaff)?
A: Due to the limited quantity of this product being sold, this product (and the list of cards it uses) does not consider any sort of limited format.
So... what's in this hypothetical product?
The contents of a totally hypothetical "Secret Masters" set aren't revealed. What are are told is the following:
This "set" will include 242 cards from all of magic's history.
This "set" will not effect the legality of cards in any format.
Each booster will include more than one rare, more than one mythic, more than one foil, more than one borderless card (including cards that have never received this treatment), and a "masterpiece" with new art taken from a smaller list of powerful magic cards.
Cards that are not rare/mythic are specifically chosen for being cards "that players use and ask for", not to fill out draft archetypes.
While not outright stated, it is highly implied that the contents of each pack exceeds its price.
There is no MTGA/MTGO codes of any sort
The Price: $20.00 per pack.
While such a theoretical product would have its share of problems (preying on FOMO, excluding certain countries, potentially harming LGS's, possible foiling problems, taking a long time to reach players, etc.), would anyone be tempted to blindly open a "Secret Masters" Pack?
There’s three ways that goes. Either the price of the mythics and rares printed will tank to the bottom making collectors mad, or all the rares and mythical will be weak reprints making newer players and collectors unhappy, or the good stuff will be as rare as jumpstart, making everybody generally unhappy if they can’t pull the good stuff frequently. This almost seems like a collector booster pack for mystery booster from how you put it, with not as many cards. I’m not opposed to the idea necessarily, I just think it’s a very polarizing product depending on the power, but if the supply is as messed up as some of the current stuff is it’ll make a lot of Timmy’s unhappy.
Using a secret lair for the product would potentially address scarcity problems on both sides, I feel.
Scarcity isn’t a problem as it was in Jumpstart because it’s printed to demand but the highly limited time window puts a different sort of limit on how much single prices can fall.
The charity secret lair tomorrow has more value than its actual purchase price but I expect that the cards within will hold value as 1) they are used, and 2) this special deal only lasts one day.
The idea of a secret masters is to have a cheaper point of entry than that upcoming lair ($20 instead of $60) but to have the actual amount of each individual card put out there through a single purchase cut to a fraction (while getting one secret lair may add 1 consecrated Sphinx to circulation, for example, buying one pack of secret masters may add 0.1 Sphinx or less, meaning that only 0.3 sphinxes are added per $60... which would theoretically cause less of a price dip over a wider array of cards).
Or at least that’s the theory.
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Imagine if you would a sealed, pseudorandomized product that is highly implied to contain more value (actual value, not a couple of good cards and a mountain of chaff) than the price it is being sold for.
Q: Wouldn't the price of the product increase almost automatically to reflect demand?
A: Wizards would be selling directly to players and could thus directly dictate the price of the product to the masses (outside of resellers).
Q: If the prices can't raise to meet demand, wouldn't the product be hoarded by scalpers/investors and become inaccessible?
A: Wizards would be printing to demand, sidestepping the issue of scarcity (at least initially).
Q: If prices can't raise and quantity matches demand, wouldn't that substantially lower the value of everything inside the product?
A: This product would only be sold for the duration of a single day. Even if players show substantial interest in the product, a single day of sales can only harm the value of cards within by so much.
Q: What about the normal terrible items in every pack existing for limited formats (AKA Chaff)?
A: Due to the limited quantity of this product being sold, this product (and the list of cards it uses) does not consider any sort of limited format.
So... what's in this hypothetical product?
The contents of a totally hypothetical "Secret Masters" set aren't revealed. What are are told is the following:
The Price: $20.00 per pack.
While such a theoretical product would have its share of problems (preying on FOMO, excluding certain countries, potentially harming LGS's, possible foiling problems, taking a long time to reach players, etc.), would anyone be tempted to blindly open a "Secret Masters" Pack?
Scarcity isn’t a problem as it was in Jumpstart because it’s printed to demand but the highly limited time window puts a different sort of limit on how much single prices can fall.
The charity secret lair tomorrow has more value than its actual purchase price but I expect that the cards within will hold value as 1) they are used, and 2) this special deal only lasts one day.
The idea of a secret masters is to have a cheaper point of entry than that upcoming lair ($20 instead of $60) but to have the actual amount of each individual card put out there through a single purchase cut to a fraction (while getting one secret lair may add 1 consecrated Sphinx to circulation, for example, buying one pack of secret masters may add 0.1 Sphinx or less, meaning that only 0.3 sphinxes are added per $60... which would theoretically cause less of a price dip over a wider array of cards).
Or at least that’s the theory.