I did some math over at MTGPrice that might be interesting here. The goal was to think about whether the fact that there are fewer copies of cards likely to reprint in Eternal Masters might mean the set has a bigger impact on prices that did Modern Masters.
Older cards had smaller print runs so might be affected more by reprints. Let’s take a look at Force of Will. That card was an uncommon originally, making it more plentiful than some older cards, but it’s also mythic here, making it rarer to find. That means Force can act as the ceiling — if the set is printed heavily enough to double the amount of an old UNCOMMON at MYTHIC, it’s probably more than doubling the amount of just about everything else in it. At that point, I would suspect you actually do see some long-term effects.
My best Google-fu suggests the following:
Alliances Force of Wills extant: 279,000
Judge Promo Force of Wills extant: 5,000 (likely less)
I can’t find any reliable data on the Modern Masters 2 print run size, but I can find some math suggesting you had a 1.23 percent chance to pull a particular Mythic out of a pack of that set. So, the new number of Forces will be:
Eternal Masters Force of Wills coming: (print size of EM) x 1.23%
This suggests that a total print EM print run of 23,089,430 cards would be necessary to produce a doubling of the number of Forces in existence. Is that likely to happen? Well, that number is vastly larger than older print runs, of course: https://www.usc.edu/dept/Deckmasters/archive/mtg/printrun.txt
The upshot of all of this? If you think more than 23 million EM cards will be printed, I’d sell out of all the cards likely to be in it. I have no idea how close they’d have to come to this level before it has an effect, but at the point they’re doubling up on Forces, I think it’s fair to say they’re making a massive impact on supply of everything.
Yep, the machine of the secondary market is in full swing. Pump everything as fast and as hard as you can, and see what the market will bear. VE MUST FEIND ZE HIEGHEST PRISE SOMVONE VILL PAY AZ FAHST AZ POSZIBLE!
I would be shocked if Null Rod -- or most cards that are spiking crazy nowadays -- can hold that price point. But, they're only gonna drop until they sell, and as long as someone is willing to pay $20.00+ a pop for these, that's the new price.
Hey, remember the good ol' days when you could get into Magic as a newbie and not just play draft?
So much for getting a cheap to to have altered. I don't play too much legacy but I don't see it dropping sub-20 as Maximum mentioned. It's usually a staple over in Stax EDH decks.
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So much for getting a cheap to to have altered. I don't play too much legacy but I don't see it dropping sub-20 as Maximum mentioned. It's usually a staple over in Stax EDH decks.
So much for getting a cheap to to have altered. I don't play too much legacy but I don't see it dropping sub-20 as Maximum mentioned. It's usually a staple over in Stax EDH decks.
People in the old gainers thread have been saying Null Rod was poised for a jump, even before EMA was announced, you had your chance to pick them up.
So much for getting a cheap to to have altered. I don't play too much legacy but I don't see it dropping sub-20 as Maximum mentioned. It's usually a staple over in Stax EDH decks.
People in the old gainers thread have been saying Null Rod was poised for a jump, even before EMA was announced, you had your chance to pick them up.
People have been saying a lot of cards were poised to jump. The only reason it actually did is because of EMA, which no one outside of WOTC could have predicted. There was no rush to pick them up as the price had remained stagnant for over 4 years (approximately $10 with a period sitting around $5 source: MTGstocks).
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Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath
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Mizzix of the Izmagnus
Derevi Stax
VolThrun
Marchesa, The Black Rose
Olivia Voldaren, Vampire Tribal
Eldrazi speculation on a reserved card tied to Eternal Masters I'd say.
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Nothing, the format Bores me! Legacy: RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R RGBelcherRG WSoldier StompyW BReanimatorB EDH: BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB BGeth, Lord of the VaultB
Eldrazi speculation on a reserved card tied to Eternal Masters I'd say.
That card has "Kick me with a Wasteland" written all over it. Although you could run Crucible of Worlds to off-set the penalty of sacrificing two lands and possibly getting wasted.
Eldrazi speculation on a reserved card tied to Eternal Masters I'd say.
That card has "Kick me with a Wasteland" written all over it. Although you could run Crucible of Worlds to off-set the penalty of sacrificing two lands and possibly getting wasted.
The Reserved List shenanigans continues...
Yeah, 3 for 1 Wasteland activate!
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Nothing, the format Bores me! Legacy: RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R RGBelcherRG WSoldier StompyW BReanimatorB EDH: BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB BGeth, Lord of the VaultB
Shhh, Modern players trying to get into Legacy don't understand about Wasteland.
In all seriousness, this is probably next-level speculators betting that people who can't afford the new stupid prices on City of Traitors will try out Scorched Ruins. It gives you the same +2 bump. And 4 mana is a pretty good spot to rush to if you are going to risk Wasteland, since that gives you a Thought-Knot Seer who could presumably strip the sand-bagged Wasteland out of their hand.
Shhh, Modern players trying to get into Legacy don't understand about Wasteland.
In all seriousness, this is probably next-level speculators betting that people who can't afford the new stupid prices on City of Traitors will try out Scorched Ruins. It gives you the same +2 bump. And 4 mana is a pretty good spot to rush to if you are going to risk Wasteland, since that gives you a Thought-Knot Seer who could presumably strip the sand-bagged Wasteland out of their hand.
TKS can't hit lands.
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I listed 4x about 2-3 weeks ago and got a Best Offer from someone I'm quite sure (in hindsight) was part of one of those 'shadow cabals' supposedly running around out there.
It was pretty close to what I was asking, and they were fairly beat up, so I accepted. The very next day, it spiked to $100.
I went ahead and shipped, a deal's a deal after all, but I felt like a bit of a dumbass. I feel a little bit better reading this.
'93/94 Format wants it and it is on the Reserved List.
It hardly seems pushed by today's standards but if you consider the era he was printed in, he's approaching Hypnotic Specter levels. Pretty damn efficient. Also happens to be a Spirit so you can do tribal stuff with it too.
I'm with Frendol on this one. Super-fringe formats like 93/94, Tiny Leaders, or whatever are not going to drive prices this high.
The ability of vendors or speculators with large bankrolls to sit on the card until it finally moves at a higher price, though? Totally possible. Even if it drops (it will) it's hard to see it getting back to where it started pre-Nov 2015.
NEW PAGE EDIT - We were talking about Thunder Spirit's price trajectory as a possible guide for whats going to happen to the Captain of Industry who is trying to force up Scorched Ruins.
Maybe? We have no indication any of these exploding prices are sticking or selling. City of Traitors, Null Rod, painlands, Scorched-freaking-ruins, these all seem like wishful thinking by profiteers, don't they? Are there really people who have not learned their lesson about buying into spikes like this floating around out there?
So much for getting a cheap to to have altered. I don't play too much legacy but I don't see it dropping sub-20 as Maximum mentioned. It's usually a staple over in Stax EDH decks.
People in the old gainers thread have been saying Null Rod was poised for a jump, even before EMA was announced, you had your chance to pick them up.
People have been saying a lot of cards were poised to jump. The only reason it actually did is because of EMA, which no one outside of WOTC could have predicted. There was no rush to pick them up as the price had remained stagnant for over 4 years (approximately $10 with a period sitting around $5 source: MTGstocks).
It was only a matter of time, considering it's on the reserved list and there were very few copies on TCGplayer at the time, and it's also a really good sideboard card. It's better to get your staples now than later. "Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it." When people say a card is going to jump it's only a matter of when, not if. You should also consider that some people buy up cards based on what's posted here.
Think of the spike cycle. A card price holds static for a while, and is then bought out, jumping to 100-1000% of the previous price, followed by a regression to somewhere between the two prices due to price memory. Usually, price memory keeps a card at no less than 150% of its original price. I think we'll see City at $90 and Null Rod at $20 in the long term, although Stony Silence is going to eat into the latter.
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These days, some wizards are finding they have a little too much deck left at the end of their $$$.
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I think CoT has a very real chance of sticking. It's one of the most widely used RL cards outside of REV duals and at least I would expect it to maintain parity with Cradle, which is a card that is used in only one deck in the entire format (and as a one of in pure GW Maverick but that's a critically endangered species). The effect it provides is also unique, and decks who will want it often pair them with 4 Tombs for the Sol Land package.
I don't see Null Rod staying this high for too long. It's a narrow sideboard card for which a functional reprint already exists, so that limits how many of them people will need. When everyone who plays BUGx colored decks (pretty much the only place outside of Vintage where this card shows up) get their 1 or 2 copies the market is going to dry up.
I'm with Frendol on this one. Super-fringe formats like 93/94, Tiny Leaders, or whatever are not going to drive prices this high.
I would agree with you... if we weren't talking about cards with an extremely limited supply.
We've seen what happens when someone even so much as buys three Caverns of Despair off TCGPlayer - the price skyrockets, simply due to Small Sample Size Theater. Thunder Spirit was always going to go up and down like a yo-yo because of this - it didn't take many copies to skyrocket, and it probably doesn't take many to crash either. Scorched Ruins, though? That could be another story. How much less rare are Weatherlight cards in the wild, in comparison to Legends ones?
Older cards had smaller print runs so might be affected more by reprints. Let’s take a look at Force of Will. That card was an uncommon originally, making it more plentiful than some older cards, but it’s also mythic here, making it rarer to find. That means Force can act as the ceiling — if the set is printed heavily enough to double the amount of an old UNCOMMON at MYTHIC, it’s probably more than doubling the amount of just about everything else in it. At that point, I would suspect you actually do see some long-term effects.
My best Google-fu suggests the following:
Alliances Force of Wills extant: 279,000
Judge Promo Force of Wills extant: 5,000 (likely less)
I can’t find any reliable data on the Modern Masters 2 print run size, but I can find some math suggesting you had a 1.23 percent chance to pull a particular Mythic out of a pack of that set. So, the new number of Forces will be:
Eternal Masters Force of Wills coming: (print size of EM) x 1.23%
This suggests that a total print EM print run of 23,089,430 cards would be necessary to produce a doubling of the number of Forces in existence. Is that likely to happen? Well, that number is vastly larger than older print runs, of course:
https://www.usc.edu/dept/Deckmasters/archive/mtg/printrun.txt
The upshot of all of this? If you think more than 23 million EM cards will be printed, I’d sell out of all the cards likely to be in it. I have no idea how close they’d have to come to this level before it has an effect, but at the point they’re doubling up on Forces, I think it’s fair to say they’re making a massive impact on supply of everything.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Weatherlight/Null Rod#paper
Yep, the machine of the secondary market is in full swing. Pump everything as fast and as hard as you can, and see what the market will bear. VE MUST FEIND ZE HIEGHEST PRISE SOMVONE VILL PAY AZ FAHST AZ POSZIBLE!
I would be shocked if Null Rod -- or most cards that are spiking crazy nowadays -- can hold that price point. But, they're only gonna drop until they sell, and as long as someone is willing to pay $20.00+ a pop for these, that's the new price.
Hey, remember the good ol' days when you could get into Magic as a newbie and not just play draft?
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/5f/90/75/5f9075a72abcd9600a06feb3771a265c.jpg
So much for getting a cheap to to have altered. I don't play too much legacy but I don't see it dropping sub-20 as Maximum mentioned. It's usually a staple over in Stax EDH decks.
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir Mono-U Control
Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath
Sen Triplets
Mizzix of the Izmagnus
Derevi Stax
VolThrun
Marchesa, The Black Rose
Olivia Voldaren, Vampire Tribal
Modern: Fish, JUND/Junk
--------
RIP Twin
Yep, your low expectations are on point.
http://mtgfinance.blogspot.com/2015/11/buyouts-and-price-manipulation-why-it.html
People in the old gainers thread have been saying Null Rod was poised for a jump, even before EMA was announced, you had your chance to pick them up.
Yeah, I'd guess probably a mix of EDH and Cube. Mana Vault is a beast of a colourless mana source for the OGW Eldrazi.
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People have been saying a lot of cards were poised to jump. The only reason it actually did is because of EMA, which no one outside of WOTC could have predicted. There was no rush to pick them up as the price had remained stagnant for over 4 years (approximately $10 with a period sitting around $5 source: MTGstocks).
Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir Mono-U Control
Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath
Sen Triplets
Mizzix of the Izmagnus
Derevi Stax
VolThrun
Marchesa, The Black Rose
Olivia Voldaren, Vampire Tribal
Modern: Fish, JUND/Junk
--------
RIP Twin
Currently Playing:
Standard:
Nothing, the format Bores me!
Legacy:
RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R
RGBelcherRG
WSoldier StompyW
BReanimatorB
EDH:
BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB
BGeth, Lord of the VaultB
That card has "Kick me with a Wasteland" written all over it. Although you could run Crucible of Worlds to off-set the penalty of sacrificing two lands and possibly getting wasted.
The Reserved List shenanigans continues...
Yeah, 3 for 1 Wasteland activate!
Currently Playing:
Standard:
Nothing, the format Bores me!
Legacy:
RBurn (Made on the Cheap!)R
RGBelcherRG
WSoldier StompyW
BReanimatorB
EDH:
BUGRWSliver OverlordWRGUB
BGeth, Lord of the VaultB
In all seriousness, this is probably next-level speculators betting that people who can't afford the new stupid prices on City of Traitors will try out Scorched Ruins. It gives you the same +2 bump. And 4 mana is a pretty good spot to rush to if you are going to risk Wasteland, since that gives you a Thought-Knot Seer who could presumably strip the sand-bagged Wasteland out of their hand.
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I predict a graph like Thunder Spirit's recent spike: surge and then disaster as no one buys.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Legends/Thunder Spirit#paper
I listed 4x about 2-3 weeks ago and got a Best Offer from someone I'm quite sure (in hindsight) was part of one of those 'shadow cabals' supposedly running around out there.
It was pretty close to what I was asking, and they were fairly beat up, so I accepted. The very next day, it spiked to $100.
I went ahead and shipped, a deal's a deal after all, but I felt like a bit of a dumbass. I feel a little bit better reading this.
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And nope, 93/94 is definitely not a thing, 90% of it is pretty much speculators blowing into the bubble.
It hardly seems pushed by today's standards but if you consider the era he was printed in, he's approaching Hypnotic Specter levels. Pretty damn efficient. Also happens to be a Spirit so you can do tribal stuff with it too.
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The ability of vendors or speculators with large bankrolls to sit on the card until it finally moves at a higher price, though? Totally possible. Even if it drops (it will) it's hard to see it getting back to where it started pre-Nov 2015.
NEW PAGE EDIT - We were talking about Thunder Spirit's price trajectory as a possible guide for whats going to happen to the Captain of Industry who is trying to force up Scorched Ruins.
It was only a matter of time, considering it's on the reserved list and there were very few copies on TCGplayer at the time, and it's also a really good sideboard card. It's better to get your staples now than later. "Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it." When people say a card is going to jump it's only a matter of when, not if. You should also consider that some people buy up cards based on what's posted here.
MTG finance guy- follow me on Twitter@RichArschmann or RichardArschmann on Reddit
I don't see Null Rod staying this high for too long. It's a narrow sideboard card for which a functional reprint already exists, so that limits how many of them people will need. When everyone who plays BUGx colored decks (pretty much the only place outside of Vintage where this card shows up) get their 1 or 2 copies the market is going to dry up.
I would agree with you... if we weren't talking about cards with an extremely limited supply.
We've seen what happens when someone even so much as buys three Caverns of Despair off TCGPlayer - the price skyrockets, simply due to Small Sample Size Theater.
Thunder Spirit was always going to go up and down like a yo-yo because of this - it didn't take many copies to skyrocket, and it probably doesn't take many to crash either.
Scorched Ruins, though? That could be another story. How much less rare are Weatherlight cards in the wild, in comparison to Legends ones?
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