I have won more matches against Goblins than I have lost, probably around 60%, maybe even more. If this matchup feels nearly unwinnable, it might have to do with your build. Or it's just bad luck.
The old stock list with 2 Lightning Bolts, 3 Fatal Pushes, 2 Terminates and 2 Stubborn Denials is really good in this matchup. Inquisition of Kozilek and Snapcaster Mage have been the best cards in the MD for me, aided by two copies of LtLH, one copy of Kozilek's Return and one copy of Izzet Staticaster (which is totally devastating) from the side.
Once the initial rush is stopped, LtLH protected by a fatty can completely overtake the game. It's not even close at this point, unless they draw several burn spells in a row, of which they only play 8 ... and half of them require an alive goblin, which is often a rare thing at this point. Almost their entire deck, with the exception of Lightning Bolt and Mogg Fanatic, operates at sorcery speed. Their "card advantage engine" is usually Mogg War Marshal. I have seen them run Tormod's Crypt over Relic of Progenitus. Their late game plan is almost in-existent.
Burn has been a much harder matchup than Goblins for me so far. If my opponent plays a Mountain on turn 1, I usually breath out in relief when I see a Foundry Street Denizen. They always seem to have it.
I've only played it twice, but it felt really bad both times. Spot removal is just atrocious against Mogg War Marshall and Krenko's Command, and Goblin Bushwhacker is a beating. I boarded in 2 K Return, 1 Staticaster, and 2 P&K (among other things), but you gotta draw them, and you gotta not die before you can cast them. It's like playing against Elves, except they can burn your out without having a pile of dudes in play. I don't see how it could be a good matchup.
Yeah, them's the breaks. The T8 was decidely less hostile this time around: Burn, Goblins, GR Valakut, Bogles, Sultai Tarmofae, Affinity, Soul Sisters (w/ Auriok Champion AND Paladin-en Vec), and Storm.
Ended up 2-2-1 at my pptq this weekend, losing 2 straight win and ins. I play the same 75 as last time. Very quickly, the rounds:
- Win 2-0 vs UW Control. Lily ultimate wins g1, P&K wins g2 despite a turn 2 Rest in Peace.
- Draw 1-1-1 vs Sultai Tarmofae. P&K kept me in it vs Bitterblossom both post sb games. (He eventually wins the event.)
- Win 2-0 vs Storm. Easy matchup.
- Lose 0-2 vs Storm. Easy matchup, but I had very poor draws.
- Lose 0-2 vs Goblins. Almost unwinnable.
Still probably wouldn't change anything, at least for pptqs.
I think all of these YP builds have too many Snapcasters. Shave a couple for more cheap spells, IMO. Or to get one of the delve creatures back.
Still Snap synergizes with YP and is a beast on the grindy fiesta. Same as I said above, i tried the other build that shaves a snap, 4 is a must he is so good right now.
YP is at its best when you can untap and cast a bunch of one mana spells, making a bunch of tokens. Snapcaster does flash back a spell, but it's 3+ mana for 1 spell. I'm not sure that <4 snapcasters is correct in a YP build, but that's definitely where I would go first when testing it. Push the idea to it's limit to really get a feel for how strong it is.
Reducing the dependency on the graveyard is something I'm also striving for. That's why I, unlike some other posters, wasn't enthusiastic about Claim // Fame when it first was spoiled.
Yeah, that's been my position since it's been spoiled. Interesting in a different Death's Shadow shell perhaps, but not this one.
I tested Pia and Kiran Nalaar a while ago as well, but hitting four lands by turn four is not what the deck usually wants to do. The fourth land would otherwise be a natural candidate for discarding through LotV's +1 ability, so this doesn't seem overly synergistic.
The thing is, vs the decks where you want P&K on turn 4, you typically side out LotV: Affinity, Elves, etc. In the mirror and vs other grindy matchups, it's not so important to have P&K right on turn 4. You're playing a long game, and you'll have time to hit those land drops. Yes P&K would be better if you could hit drop it on turn 4 consistently, but it's still very good.
Vs. Affinity:
-4 Street Wraith, -2 Liliana of the Veil, -1 Thoughtseize, -1 Stubborn Denial, -1 Mana Leak
+2 Kozilek's Return, +2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar, +2 Ceremonious Rejection, +2 Collective Brutality, +1 Izzet Staticaster
The mix of Thoughtseize, Denial, and Leak that comes out depends on play/draw and how many Galvanic Blasts you expect them to have. I'm not real certain of the those last 3 that come out.
If you know they won't have Hangerback Walker, the Staticaster should be a Push or a Stub instead. There's some leeway to have more Pushes and Stubs in general, but you have to figure out what to cut. I'm not 100% sure here.
It seems like P&K has worked out well for you.. I'm going to give it a try. What kind of matchups do you bring them in? Assuming it's as simple as "in games where you need more threats". I'm assuming P&K took the slot for Liliana, the Last Hope?
I'm also tempted to ask how you've found LotV and Leak, a combination that doesn't seem to work well in tandem at face value
Yep, the P&Ks replaced LtlH. The theory is this: 1) everyone is playing more GY hate, so LtlH is less good than otherwise, 2) LtlH takes time to deal with swarms while P&K puts a board presence into play immediately, 3) Lingering Souls is really good against us, and this lets us fight back on the same axis while having "1/1 flying token advantage" in mirrors and against midrange decks that don't have something similar, and if they don't have GY hate, K Command + P&K will take over, and 4) Against affinity P&K deals with the manlands AND Etched Champion, the two hardest things to beat. She comes in vs. all grindy matchups and most swarms. BGx, Shadow builds, control decks, other midrange decks, affinity, elves, goblins (yes I've played against it), most blood moon decks, maybe even Dredge (not sure there).
Leak vs. IoK is very close in that build, and in an RPTQ or GP, I'd probably have IoK. Leak just gives you a bit more insurance against random nonsense, and doesn't really conflict that much with LotV. Yes, sometimes you have 1 card in hand and it's a leak, so you both want to +1 Lily and hold the leak. But it doesn't come up that much with just 2 of each. And there's also some synergy there - when Leak becomes bad because they have too many lands, you can pitch it to Lily.
I have not heard anyone suggest the flex spot and 4th Snap should be an LOTV, neither in articles, streams, here, or mtgo lists.
It seems flat out wrong to clunk up your 3 drop more
Snapcaster is already a 3 drop when you consider him
Because no one has but me, as far as I know! Here's my argument (which I've made a few times in the past couple pages): 1) LotV is one of the best cards to have in the mirror and vs most midrange decks, and even against the midrange decks with Lingering Souls she's pretty good - especially if you can deal with Lingering Souls some other way. 2) Similarly, LotV is pretty good against many aggro decks and control decks, though not an all star and not vs the aggro decks that go wide quickly. 3) Vs. most combo decks, discard into threat into LotV is a tried and true strategy that works, so she's pretty good there. 4) Graveyard hate is everywhere right now, so Snapcaster and the Delve creatures can sometimes be stuck in your hand.
LotV is a very powerful card that is at least decent in most matchups and very good in many matchups that doesn't rely on the graveyard to be good. In fact, her +1 lets you get value out of e.g. dead delve creatures in hand while you're under a RiP or Leyline. Now, to fit 2 in the MD, you definitely need to shave one of the three drops. And the 4th Snapcaster gets the cut against because of the GY hate and diminishing returns. So we're only adding 1 more 3 drop to the standard shell. I've been experimenting with having an extra 3 drop MD for most of the existence of this deck - typically in the form of a LotV, and the 19 land build can handle it.
But we can all agree that it's impossible to win g1 on the play against burn. And nearly impossible too on the draw G1. I'm talking normal modern magic burn player who knows the match up.
I'd disagree with this. It's tough, but hardly "impossible," especially if you scout matches before and can decipher that they're on burn before hand to inform your mulligan choices.
Also disagree. G1 is tough, but the card Death's Shadow closes very fast. Even if you're on the play and don't know that you're playing against burn, you can mitigate the possible downside by doing things like waiting to cycle street wraith. Or fetching in such a way that the second fetch you play can get a basic if it turns out they're on burn. Not every hand has the luxury of doing things like this, but some do.
Been playing around on mtgo and paper, and I think I've decided the deck is just better off running that 3rd stubborn instead of running the bolt in the flex.
Yes, it's scary to run into mirrodin crusader, but if you run into him, you run into him, I don't think being scared of one deck that doesn't have the meta shares of Grixis, E-Tron and Affinity is worth ruining your win percentages across the board for a card that many consider not good in this meta.
Every deck is going to run into hate, and if someone wants to jam 3 or 4 of those crusaders in your variance encounter, hedging for that 1 bolt seems like a bad plan.
Now if we were talking about going zero bolts vs 3 bolts, that'd be another story, as thats a more consistent bolt snap bolt.
Not sure what you guys feel is better in that flex spot, claim//fame is just too GY reliant on a deck already using it's GY too much
cutting any copies of push is a massive mistake
Cutting a terminate for a bolt feels greedy, and that side dreadbore i've been seeing doesn't cut it
How are you guys feeling about the flex spot?
The flex spot should be Liliana of the Veil. (And the 4th Snapcaster should be another Liliana of the Veil). The thing about Push is that it can sometimes be incredibly awkward when you need to kill, an Ezuri, an Elvish Archdruid, a Meerow Reejery, a Thalia, Heretic Cathar, or an Aven Mindcensor etc, but you don't have a fetch to use. By diversifying your cheap removal with 1 bolt you have a better shot at avoiding those awkward spots. It also provides a way to pressure planeswalkers without having a creature in play, which is sometimes relevant. And we're a Snapcaster + Thought Scour + other cantrips deck - we see our 1 ofs far more often than a typical deck, and we can use them twice. So I think there's a lot of value to having access to 1 bolt against the Mirran Crusader decks.
How did you win against burn ? Bad opponents, bad draws ? I have yet to win a full round against an experienced burn player. Game one is always a beating.
Play extremely tightly and get lucky. It's close to 50/50 if both players are competent, and even favors Shadow if the Shadow player knows how to navigate the matchup and the burn player does not. But to the point about luck: I mulled to 5 g1 and won anyway because he kept a slow 7 without creatures and I found a shadow.
Edit: but playing the Shadow side is extremely difficult - find a friendly burn opponent and just jam games, discuss lines, etc.
99 players, 7 rounds. Ended up 6-0-1 in the swiss. Here's what happened:
Rd 1: 2-0 vs Affinity
Rd 2: 2-0 vs Eldrazi Tron
Rd 3: 2-0 vs Burn
Rd 4: 2-1 vs Affinity
Rd 5: 2-0 vs BR Midrange (w/ Moons out of the board)
Rd 6: ID vs Elves. (I was paired down, but after I won G1 I offered the draw and he took it)
Rd 7: 2-1 vs Grixis Shadow (we were both locked, but he wanted to play for seeding)
Top 8: 1-2 vs Elves (same guy as round 6)
The full T8 was 3 Grixis Shadow, 2 Elves, 1 Wg Hatebears, 1 RG Ponza, and 1 All in Red. (I.e. 3 Shadow, and 5 decks that are build to prey on Shadow) All in Red won in the finals vs my Shadow opponent from round 7.
The deck was great. I would gladly run back the same 75. P&K won me both post SB games in the mirror, and helped steal games vs Affinity. LotV was crucial in the mirror and vs the BR Midrange deck. My shadow opponent had MD LotV as well, and she nearly stole g3 for him. He also had Claim to Fame - only saw it post board, and it was very medium against me. The leaks were perhaps questionable, but they helped get through Eldrazi Tron and BR Midrange in ways that IoK would not. Notably, though, the Eldrazi Tron opponent did not have Hangerback Walker.
To move the needle on affinity from 50/50 where you can't beat Etched Champion to a slightly good matchup, you need Kozilek's Return instead of Anger in the SB.
Merfolk is fundamentally a bad matchup no matter how you slice it. I don't think there's anything reasonable you can do in this matchup to fix it.
I would keep that hand, though I'm not super sure. But I would definitely Serum Visions first. You have decent tools, you just need to find lands. And your major targets for Thoughtseize are 2+ drops anyway, outside of Aether Vial. Given that you Thoughtseized, I would probably take Cursecatcher because we are going to need to resolve our cantrips over the next few turns, and eventually Anger. Taking Vial is definitely wrong because then they'll play the Cursecatcher on turn 1 and now there's a very real risk your Serum doesn't resolve. I could see taking Spreading Seas or Adept though since they'll almost certainly lead on Vial, so you'll get to resolve your Serum.
If you want you can also exchange the/a IOK with Denials to deal with some of the stuff postboard. Specifically the stuff with flashback. Being able to hit looting or conflagrate is nice and you don't run into awkward scenarios in the later game when their hand is all dredge cards so it's dead or you have to think about playing it into a hand of cards they want discarded. Denial is a little more narrow but guarunteed. Doesn't make the matchup significantly better or anything but could gain you a few percentage points in dealing with those pesky conflagrates or stopping loam for a turn to kill them.
I really like having extra Stubs post board because often it's your only answer to Conflagrate, which just kills you.
I still think Claim to Fame is bad in this deck. We only have 8 targets, and delve away our graveyard a lot. It's much more interesting in death's shadow aggro, which I've been running into on mtgo lately - featuring Tribal Flames.
I'm not a fan of Echoing Truth, though I tried it. If it did anything else efficiently I'd be more interested. If you want to beat Leyline, configure your deck so that it's less good against you. Vs. Sanctity: cut IoKs for Leaks. Vs. Void: shave a Snapcaster, and make sure post board you can bring in stuff that matters but doesn't depend on the GY: P&K, planeswalkers not named LtlH, etc. Both Leylines are one reason why I like Liliana of the Veil right now.
To beat dredge you need to 1) get lucky and/or 2) pack a pile of gy hate. 6ish hate cards is on the high end for the number of cards you can bring in. But also bring in stuff like Stubborn Denial just because it interacts - not just with their enablers, but also with Conflagrate. Izzet Staticaster is also good if you have it. Same for Kozilek's Return, but it's less good. Keep the discard in because taking a Looting or a Reunion is very good. You can shave Street Wraiths, a Snapcaster, and some removal. Mulligan any hand without at least one threat or serious GY hate. One of those two is sometimes enough to make a hand keepable, but any hand without both is bad. You really need to clock them because they will grind you out. Spellbomb is at its best if you can get a large graveyard with some goodies in it and, e.g., Narcomoeba triggers on the stack. But after they dredge into a big yard with Bloodghasts + Amalgams in it, don't let them go to their main phase before cracking spellbomb - a fetchland will make you sad. If you know the contents of their hand, or have other gy hate, or need to dig for a threat, sometimes cracking Spellbomb early is better. But mostly it's a difficult matchup and your best bet is to dodge.
You guys are talking about mainboarding a 3CMC card without any details on what you are cutting for it. Between kolaghan's command and Snapcaster recurring a 1CMC spell we have 6 3CMC spells. I don't see myself adding 2 more.
I have a pptq this weekend, and if it were tomorrow this is what I'll sleeve up. I'll probably change my mind in the mean time though. (On MTGO, at a SCG open, or at a GP I'd -2 Leak, +2 IoK because it's better against the more defined metagame that has formed. But for a pptq, I expect nonsense)
Edit:
Already changing my mind -1 Terminate, +1 Push/Bolt since Lily does some of Terminate's work and makes the curve higher.
I've only played it twice, but it felt really bad both times. Spot removal is just atrocious against Mogg War Marshall and Krenko's Command, and Goblin Bushwhacker is a beating. I boarded in 2 K Return, 1 Staticaster, and 2 P&K (among other things), but you gotta draw them, and you gotta not die before you can cast them. It's like playing against Elves, except they can burn your out without having a pile of dudes in play. I don't see how it could be a good matchup.
- Win 2-0 vs UW Control. Lily ultimate wins g1, P&K wins g2 despite a turn 2 Rest in Peace.
- Draw 1-1-1 vs Sultai Tarmofae. P&K kept me in it vs Bitterblossom both post sb games. (He eventually wins the event.)
- Win 2-0 vs Storm. Easy matchup.
- Lose 0-2 vs Storm. Easy matchup, but I had very poor draws.
- Lose 0-2 vs Goblins. Almost unwinnable.
Still probably wouldn't change anything, at least for pptqs.
YP is at its best when you can untap and cast a bunch of one mana spells, making a bunch of tokens. Snapcaster does flash back a spell, but it's 3+ mana for 1 spell. I'm not sure that <4 snapcasters is correct in a YP build, but that's definitely where I would go first when testing it. Push the idea to it's limit to really get a feel for how strong it is.
Yeah, that's been my position since it's been spoiled. Interesting in a different Death's Shadow shell perhaps, but not this one.
The thing is, vs the decks where you want P&K on turn 4, you typically side out LotV: Affinity, Elves, etc. In the mirror and vs other grindy matchups, it's not so important to have P&K right on turn 4. You're playing a long game, and you'll have time to hit those land drops. Yes P&K would be better if you could hit drop it on turn 4 consistently, but it's still very good.
-4 Street Wraith, -2 Liliana of the Veil, -1 Thoughtseize, -1 Stubborn Denial, -1 Mana Leak
+2 Kozilek's Return, +2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar, +2 Ceremonious Rejection, +2 Collective Brutality, +1 Izzet Staticaster
The mix of Thoughtseize, Denial, and Leak that comes out depends on play/draw and how many Galvanic Blasts you expect them to have. I'm not real certain of the those last 3 that come out.
Vs. Eldrazi Tron:
-2 Fatal Push, -1 Lightning Bolt
+2 Ceremonious Rejection, +1 Izzet Staticaster
If you know they won't have Hangerback Walker, the Staticaster should be a Push or a Stub instead. There's some leeway to have more Pushes and Stubs in general, but you have to figure out what to cut. I'm not 100% sure here.
Yep, the P&Ks replaced LtlH. The theory is this: 1) everyone is playing more GY hate, so LtlH is less good than otherwise, 2) LtlH takes time to deal with swarms while P&K puts a board presence into play immediately, 3) Lingering Souls is really good against us, and this lets us fight back on the same axis while having "1/1 flying token advantage" in mirrors and against midrange decks that don't have something similar, and if they don't have GY hate, K Command + P&K will take over, and 4) Against affinity P&K deals with the manlands AND Etched Champion, the two hardest things to beat. She comes in vs. all grindy matchups and most swarms. BGx, Shadow builds, control decks, other midrange decks, affinity, elves, goblins (yes I've played against it), most blood moon decks, maybe even Dredge (not sure there).
Leak vs. IoK is very close in that build, and in an RPTQ or GP, I'd probably have IoK. Leak just gives you a bit more insurance against random nonsense, and doesn't really conflict that much with LotV. Yes, sometimes you have 1 card in hand and it's a leak, so you both want to +1 Lily and hold the leak. But it doesn't come up that much with just 2 of each. And there's also some synergy there - when Leak becomes bad because they have too many lands, you can pitch it to Lily.
Because no one has but me, as far as I know! Here's my argument (which I've made a few times in the past couple pages): 1) LotV is one of the best cards to have in the mirror and vs most midrange decks, and even against the midrange decks with Lingering Souls she's pretty good - especially if you can deal with Lingering Souls some other way. 2) Similarly, LotV is pretty good against many aggro decks and control decks, though not an all star and not vs the aggro decks that go wide quickly. 3) Vs. most combo decks, discard into threat into LotV is a tried and true strategy that works, so she's pretty good there. 4) Graveyard hate is everywhere right now, so Snapcaster and the Delve creatures can sometimes be stuck in your hand.
LotV is a very powerful card that is at least decent in most matchups and very good in many matchups that doesn't rely on the graveyard to be good. In fact, her +1 lets you get value out of e.g. dead delve creatures in hand while you're under a RiP or Leyline. Now, to fit 2 in the MD, you definitely need to shave one of the three drops. And the 4th Snapcaster gets the cut against because of the GY hate and diminishing returns. So we're only adding 1 more 3 drop to the standard shell. I've been experimenting with having an extra 3 drop MD for most of the existence of this deck - typically in the form of a LotV, and the 19 land build can handle it.
Edit: formatting.
Also disagree. G1 is tough, but the card Death's Shadow closes very fast. Even if you're on the play and don't know that you're playing against burn, you can mitigate the possible downside by doing things like waiting to cycle street wraith. Or fetching in such a way that the second fetch you play can get a basic if it turns out they're on burn. Not every hand has the luxury of doing things like this, but some do.
The flex spot should be Liliana of the Veil. (And the 4th Snapcaster should be another Liliana of the Veil). The thing about Push is that it can sometimes be incredibly awkward when you need to kill, an Ezuri, an Elvish Archdruid, a Meerow Reejery, a Thalia, Heretic Cathar, or an Aven Mindcensor etc, but you don't have a fetch to use. By diversifying your cheap removal with 1 bolt you have a better shot at avoiding those awkward spots. It also provides a way to pressure planeswalkers without having a creature in play, which is sometimes relevant. And we're a Snapcaster + Thought Scour + other cantrips deck - we see our 1 ofs far more often than a typical deck, and we can use them twice. So I think there's a lot of value to having access to 1 bolt against the Mirran Crusader decks.
I'm a huge fan of MD 2 LotV - check the last couple of pages for some discussion.
Play extremely tightly and get lucky. It's close to 50/50 if both players are competent, and even favors Shadow if the Shadow player knows how to navigate the matchup and the burn player does not. But to the point about luck: I mulled to 5 g1 and won anyway because he kept a slow 7 without creatures and I found a shadow.
Edit: but playing the Shadow side is extremely difficult - find a friendly burn opponent and just jam games, discuss lines, etc.
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Watery Grave
1 Steam Vents
2 Blood Crypt
1 Island
1 Swamp
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
2 Gurmag Angler
4 Death's Shadow
3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Street Wraith
4 Thought Scour
2 Stubborn Denial
4 Thoughtseize
2 Mana Leak
3 Fatal Push
2 Terminate
2 Kolaghan's Command
2 Liliana of the Veil
1 Lightning Bolt
2 Stubborn Denial
2 Collective Brutality
2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Kozilek's Return
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Izzet Staticaster
99 players, 7 rounds. Ended up 6-0-1 in the swiss. Here's what happened:
Rd 1: 2-0 vs Affinity
Rd 2: 2-0 vs Eldrazi Tron
Rd 3: 2-0 vs Burn
Rd 4: 2-1 vs Affinity
Rd 5: 2-0 vs BR Midrange (w/ Moons out of the board)
Rd 6: ID vs Elves. (I was paired down, but after I won G1 I offered the draw and he took it)
Rd 7: 2-1 vs Grixis Shadow (we were both locked, but he wanted to play for seeding)
Top 8: 1-2 vs Elves (same guy as round 6)
The full T8 was 3 Grixis Shadow, 2 Elves, 1 Wg Hatebears, 1 RG Ponza, and 1 All in Red. (I.e. 3 Shadow, and 5 decks that are build to prey on Shadow) All in Red won in the finals vs my Shadow opponent from round 7.
The deck was great. I would gladly run back the same 75. P&K won me both post SB games in the mirror, and helped steal games vs Affinity. LotV was crucial in the mirror and vs the BR Midrange deck. My shadow opponent had MD LotV as well, and she nearly stole g3 for him. He also had Claim to Fame - only saw it post board, and it was very medium against me. The leaks were perhaps questionable, but they helped get through Eldrazi Tron and BR Midrange in ways that IoK would not. Notably, though, the Eldrazi Tron opponent did not have Hangerback Walker.
Edit: forgot the bolt in the list.
Merfolk is fundamentally a bad matchup no matter how you slice it. I don't think there's anything reasonable you can do in this matchup to fix it.
I would keep that hand, though I'm not super sure. But I would definitely Serum Visions first. You have decent tools, you just need to find lands. And your major targets for Thoughtseize are 2+ drops anyway, outside of Aether Vial. Given that you Thoughtseized, I would probably take Cursecatcher because we are going to need to resolve our cantrips over the next few turns, and eventually Anger. Taking Vial is definitely wrong because then they'll play the Cursecatcher on turn 1 and now there's a very real risk your Serum doesn't resolve. I could see taking Spreading Seas or Adept though since they'll almost certainly lead on Vial, so you'll get to resolve your Serum.
I really like having extra Stubs post board because often it's your only answer to Conflagrate, which just kills you.
I'm not a fan of Echoing Truth, though I tried it. If it did anything else efficiently I'd be more interested. If you want to beat Leyline, configure your deck so that it's less good against you. Vs. Sanctity: cut IoKs for Leaks. Vs. Void: shave a Snapcaster, and make sure post board you can bring in stuff that matters but doesn't depend on the GY: P&K, planeswalkers not named LtlH, etc. Both Leylines are one reason why I like Liliana of the Veil right now.
To beat dredge you need to 1) get lucky and/or 2) pack a pile of gy hate. 6ish hate cards is on the high end for the number of cards you can bring in. But also bring in stuff like Stubborn Denial just because it interacts - not just with their enablers, but also with Conflagrate. Izzet Staticaster is also good if you have it. Same for Kozilek's Return, but it's less good. Keep the discard in because taking a Looting or a Reunion is very good. You can shave Street Wraiths, a Snapcaster, and some removal. Mulligan any hand without at least one threat or serious GY hate. One of those two is sometimes enough to make a hand keepable, but any hand without both is bad. You really need to clock them because they will grind you out. Spellbomb is at its best if you can get a large graveyard with some goodies in it and, e.g., Narcomoeba triggers on the stack. But after they dredge into a big yard with Bloodghasts + Amalgams in it, don't let them go to their main phase before cracking spellbomb - a fetchland will make you sad. If you know the contents of their hand, or have other gy hate, or need to dig for a threat, sometimes cracking Spellbomb early is better. But mostly it's a difficult matchup and your best bet is to dodge.
Have a list
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Watery Grave
1 Steam Vents
2 Blood Crypt
1 Island
1 Swamp
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
2 Gurmag Angler
4 Death's Shadow
3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Street Wraith
4 Thought Scour
2 Stubborn Denial
4 Thoughtseize
2 Mana Leak
3 Fatal Push
3 Terminate
2 Kolaghan's Command
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Stubborn Denial
2 Collective Brutality
2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Kozilek's Return
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Izzet Staticaster
I have a pptq this weekend, and if it were tomorrow this is what I'll sleeve up. I'll probably change my mind in the mean time though. (On MTGO, at a SCG open, or at a GP I'd -2 Leak, +2 IoK because it's better against the more defined metagame that has formed. But for a pptq, I expect nonsense)
Edit:
Already changing my mind -1 Terminate, +1 Push/Bolt since Lily does some of Terminate's work and makes the curve higher.