I don't think he meant to he passive aggressive lol. I'm actually looking forward to going over the equations when I get home to back up my points and those of the author because the author might have a flaw or he just didn't fully interperet correctly. Regardless, I have been having tons of success after following the guidelines
This isn't a combination of hitting the # of lands and the number of required color sources. He's calculating the probably of having UUU on t4, not 1UUU. He is calculating for the recommended numbers of colored sources in regards to mana intensity, not the casting cost as a whole
Yes, I think that was my point. So, if we agree on that then we have to realize that his numbers are not very useful with respect to knowing if one has enough red mana sources to cast spells like Anger of the Gods and Damnation.
They are useful numbers. If you want to reliably (90% on the play) have access to UUU in order to cast cryptic command then make sure you have 21 blue sources. It's different than the probability of hitting the land drops, but calculating the probability of hitting triple blue by turn 4 is very valuable
By the way, I have read Karsten Frank's article carefully and found it to be quite misleading. I tested it with respect to my own analysis program, and found the following:
First, his calculations are based on being on the draw, not on the play.
Nope, he meant specifically for his calculations to represent probabilities on the play, early on in his introduction he does preface his math with...
"Now suppose that I want to have a 90% guarantee to be able to cast, say, a turn one Thoughtseize on the play, and that I'm trying to figure out how many black sources my 60-card deck needs. I could translate this in mathematical terms by saying that I want to find the smallest integer number of black sources, denoted by B, such that the probability of having at least one black source in a random 7-card opening hand is no smaller than 90%. Since this probability is 1-{(60-B)!/(60-B-7)!}/{60!/53!}, I am looking for the smallest integer B for which 1-{(60-B)!/(60-B-7)!}/{60!/53!}≥0.9. Straightforward calculation reveals that the solution is to play 16 black sources. If you have experience with mana bases, then this number may seem overly large, and you would be right. There is a problem with this approach. Indeed, under the same logic, the number of red sources required to cast a third-turn Boros Reckoner 90% of the time turns out to be 29, which is clearly excessive."
Also in the formula he is using ( H(k,n,K,N) ), he is using the value of 7 for the number of draws, further proving that his calculations are based on being on the play since 7 draws is representative of keeping a hand on the play.
Second, he is ignoring the factor of not hitting your land drops. In a 24-land deck, for instance, the chance of hitting the third land-drop is 85.59% on the draw (78.87% on the play), thus having any "90%" rule for cards with CMC >= 3 is quite frankly, ludicrous.
I'm going to come back to this later after crunching the numbers and re-reading his article, I'm not entirely familiar with his formula but I believe that you're mistaking his evaluation/angle
Third, the table that you referred to can not be used for spells with colorless mana symbols in it. It is a big difference being able to cast 1UUU and UUU. What his table really reflects is the latter, not the former.
This isn't a combination of hitting the # of lands and the number of required color sources. He's calculating the probably of having UUU on t4, not 1UUU. He is calculating for the recommended numbers of colored sources in regards to mana intensity, not the casting cost as a whole
Unfortunately t3 we need to be playing answers or we're dead on opponent's turn 4 so having that dig is nice but a turn too late :/ I'm still going to try it in place of electrolyze, though.
I disagree with that, modern is tough but getting goldfished on t4 is actually kind of rare. It's even rarer still for electrolyze to be the the t3 play that prevents said goldfish
Just use electrolyze on their end step to the face and draw a card if it becomes a dead card first game. I still find it plenty useful, then if it's useless against creatures in game one then it's easier to know which cards to sideboard out.
Alchemy is great. I wouldn't run less than 2. I'm switching to 4 augurs with the 2 alchemy to help dig for answers and provide some early blocking.
Yeah, alchemy is one potent sob. People are always complaining about not having Impulse and this is closest we can get. After playing with it for awhile, I now wish I switched out electrolyze for it way earlier
How does spreading seas work with Blood Moon? Can we enchant our own non-basic land to make blue mana? That would add a huge amount of flexibility if that's the case.
Edit: it seems it's a time stamp thing. If blood moon gets played first, then you can spreading seas to produce blue. This seems like a great sideboard card that can help get around blood Moon without retooling your mana to be less effective (running more basics). In addition, it's got major game against Tron and Scapeshift. Mocha Latte's been on this card for awhile...it seems very versatile.
Yup, depends on which one comes into play first. If you enchant your own blood crypt after blood moon comes in, then it becomes an island instead of a mountain
I bring in Spreading Seas, Spellskite, Countersquall, and my singleton batterskull. The skull rarely does anything since I have to draw into it early and relying on magically hitting that miser isn't a reliable gameplan (even though it's still nice to have), but the other 3 mentions are good at disrupting them long enough to land dat ultimatum. Seas does work since they typically only run 19-20 lands, even if they have another red source in play, it still slows them down long enough to draw into your answers
I will say - UWR geist is much less favorable than UWR control, especially if you're not packing devour flesh somewhere in your 75. I lost to UWR geist in a recent daily event (although I made a big misplay in not casting an ultimatum when I should have).
UWR basically can't do much, every time they tap out for their manland (which costs 5 and is a lot), they're taking a huge risk of extending into an ultimatum. I can pick apart their hands with spot discard and play the tempo game with profitable eot snapcaster + burn spells. Have you ever played agains cruel control running spot discard? It makes the matchup close to one sided. UWR is easy because I don't have to overextend as much as they do, I have spot discard, and cruel ultimatum ruins them.
You seem to think just because someone is playing blue that they're always going to have a counterspell and the mana to cast it. Playing around countermagic, spot discard, and forcing them to tap out to deal with your tempo shouldn't be that foreign of a concept to you by now
Cruel Ultimatum > Revelation
IoK/Seize > Spellsnare by a landslide
Uwr has a marginally better mana base, it's not game-changing. The only difference is that my other fetchland (marsh flats) can't grab a Steam Vents, it can still grab a Blood Crypt or a Watery Grave. As much as I would love to have Polluted Delta, it's not that big of a loss not to have it.
Colonnade is only slightly better (against the meta as a whole), once again though, it's not that much better. The extra mana they have to invest in activating it goes a long way in how this match in particular would transpire. I play both once again, tar pit is only worse in the sense of blocking but the easier activation cost opens up more options. When taking everything into consideration, stats, activation cost, and abilities, tar pit is on par with colonnade in this specific MU.
You can theorize about how uwr beats grixis all day in this match-up but in the end it boils down to how many times you've played it. I've played it plenty of times and I can give you loads of reasons why grixis is favored, but until you get your ass handed to you 7 times out of every ten match-ups I will never convince you since everyone here somehow knows everything there is to know about magic. Just don't say I didn't warn you when you have to deal with getting your hand shredded apart by discard spells (I also know what your hand is, kind of a big deal) backed up by countermagic, tempo, and the backbreaking outcome of getting 10 for 1'd by an ultimatum. Just the threat of Ultimatum itself severely limits your options.
Your 4 toughness creatures don't matter, wall of omens? Congrats you got a cantrip, I'm just gonna keep hurling burn at your face at the end of each of your turns, make you discard your counterspells, and when you overextend I'm going to drop an ultimatum.
I disagree on the statement that revelation is even or better than ultimatum. Ultimatum effects your opponent's board state and resources, it's so much more powerful than revelation that I'm confused as to how you could eve compare the two. Furthemore uw and Uwr are easy matchups for grixis, especially uw. All I have to do is harass you w burn rot w snapcaster beats, when you overextend to keep me off you, I'm gonna make you discard 3 and lose five while I return a snap and draw 3. Uwr is favorable, uw is free
They are useful numbers. If you want to reliably (90% on the play) have access to UUU in order to cast cryptic command then make sure you have 21 blue sources. It's different than the probability of hitting the land drops, but calculating the probability of hitting triple blue by turn 4 is very valuable
Nope, he meant specifically for his calculations to represent probabilities on the play, early on in his introduction he does preface his math with...
"Now suppose that I want to have a 90% guarantee to be able to cast, say, a turn one Thoughtseize on the play, and that I'm trying to figure out how many black sources my 60-card deck needs. I could translate this in mathematical terms by saying that I want to find the smallest integer number of black sources, denoted by B, such that the probability of having at least one black source in a random 7-card opening hand is no smaller than 90%. Since this probability is 1-{(60-B)!/(60-B-7)!}/{60!/53!}, I am looking for the smallest integer B for which 1-{(60-B)!/(60-B-7)!}/{60!/53!}≥0.9. Straightforward calculation reveals that the solution is to play 16 black sources. If you have experience with mana bases, then this number may seem overly large, and you would be right. There is a problem with this approach. Indeed, under the same logic, the number of red sources required to cast a third-turn Boros Reckoner 90% of the time turns out to be 29, which is clearly excessive."
Also in the formula he is using ( H(k,n,K,N) ), he is using the value of 7 for the number of draws, further proving that his calculations are based on being on the play since 7 draws is representative of keeping a hand on the play.
I'm going to come back to this later after crunching the numbers and re-reading his article, I'm not entirely familiar with his formula but I believe that you're mistaking his evaluation/angle
This isn't a combination of hitting the # of lands and the number of required color sources. He's calculating the probably of having UUU on t4, not 1UUU. He is calculating for the recommended numbers of colored sources in regards to mana intensity, not the casting cost as a whole
I disagree with that, modern is tough but getting goldfished on t4 is actually kind of rare. It's even rarer still for electrolyze to be the the t3 play that prevents said goldfish
Yeah, alchemy is one potent sob. People are always complaining about not having Impulse and this is closest we can get. After playing with it for awhile, I now wish I switched out electrolyze for it way earlier
Yup, depends on which one comes into play first. If you enchant your own blood crypt after blood moon comes in, then it becomes an island instead of a mountain
Because there isn't any reason not to just play terminate, the mana fixing makes it so easy to cast that its mana restriction is negligible
You just gotta do it, YOLO + disrespect = win
You seem to think just because someone is playing blue that they're always going to have a counterspell and the mana to cast it. Playing around countermagic, spot discard, and forcing them to tap out to deal with your tempo shouldn't be that foreign of a concept to you by now
Cruel Ultimatum > Revelation
IoK/Seize > Spellsnare by a landslide
Uwr has a marginally better mana base, it's not game-changing. The only difference is that my other fetchland (marsh flats) can't grab a Steam Vents, it can still grab a Blood Crypt or a Watery Grave. As much as I would love to have Polluted Delta, it's not that big of a loss not to have it.
Colonnade is only slightly better (against the meta as a whole), once again though, it's not that much better. The extra mana they have to invest in activating it goes a long way in how this match in particular would transpire. I play both once again, tar pit is only worse in the sense of blocking but the easier activation cost opens up more options. When taking everything into consideration, stats, activation cost, and abilities, tar pit is on par with colonnade in this specific MU.
You can theorize about how uwr beats grixis all day in this match-up but in the end it boils down to how many times you've played it. I've played it plenty of times and I can give you loads of reasons why grixis is favored, but until you get your ass handed to you 7 times out of every ten match-ups I will never convince you since everyone here somehow knows everything there is to know about magic. Just don't say I didn't warn you when you have to deal with getting your hand shredded apart by discard spells (I also know what your hand is, kind of a big deal) backed up by countermagic, tempo, and the backbreaking outcome of getting 10 for 1'd by an ultimatum. Just the threat of Ultimatum itself severely limits your options.
UWR is favorable
UW is straight up free