Simic Charm is great in this deck. However, it shares a slot with Vapor Snag (they do very similar things), and I think Snag is better right now. I would rather have Vapor Snag against most Aggro decks game 1 (game 2 I'm probably boarding them out since I'd rather have longer-term removal). This becomes more true the faster the Aggro deck (think of Affinity), while against slow Aggro decks (say, Naya Company), I don't mind the versatility of Simic Charm. Simic Charm is better against classic Midrange and Control, but I think I prefer Vapor Snag against Grixis Shadow. I think Simic Charm looks a bit better against Eldrazi. The extra mana isn't so bad when they have Chalice, and growing a Mandrills can be very good there. The Hexproof mode won't be that common, but I think I like the Giant Growth.
I would switch back to Simic Charm once the meta shifts back towards more interactive decks. Vapor Snag is better against the more linear ones.
I haven't tried Delay yet, but it looks very nice against Combo decks that want to go off on time. It obviously rewards aggressiveness, but doesn't require it as much as Remand does. I don't think I like it against Midrange and Control, especially when we go for a slower game plan postboard, but that depends on how you sideboard.
I'll cut a scour and a bauble from your list since chart is still a draw spell. I'm playing 4 mandrills now but I'm looking for replacing one of them with another threat less graveyard dependant. The options are a second Savage Knuckleblade (men, I'm in love with that beast!) or a Vendilion clicque.
It's good to hear you are liking Knucks. I'm still on the fence with it since it only comes up so often. I really like what it can do, but it is a lot slower than the rest of our threats, which really punishes our threat-light hands when we need to get a creature down quickly.
I don't think it is morally permissable to not play Bauble. You might even be able to get away with playing Bauble and Peezy. If you can support Delver, you can support Peezy.
Peezy is actually a really good idea though. That could make trimming Mandrills and Scour more feasible. With Chart, I might even drop my Reveler for a sideboard Peezy.
Mikefon, how have you found Traverse and Chart together? I want to try out a Chart or two, but I'm not sure what to cut. I'm thinking the fifteenth creature and probably a cantrip. I feel like 2 Traverse, 3 Scour, 4 Visions, 3 Bauble, and Chart on top of it all will be too much air. I suppose I could go to 3 Mandrills and 2 Scour. A few people have moved to that, and I may as well give it a go. Actually, cutting threats (especially one like Mandrills that can come down early and attack well) feels wrong if I'm trying to get Chart in.
I encountered an interesting mulligan decision last night against Jund.
We are on the draw in game 3, and our 7 is Snapcaster, Traverse, Goyf, Denial, Tarfire, Delver, fetch (Flooded Strand but should be Tarn for discussion's sake). Given that we are playing against a deck with ~6 discard spells, I expected turn 1 Inquisition/Thoughtseize. This is also relevant for mulligans against Abzan, 8 Rack, and Shadow decks. For those who don't play Traverse, I've encountered spots like this one in which the "fixing" in our hand is Serum Visions.
Generally speaking, mulligans against discard decks get punished because they will pick your hand apart, and it is easier for them when you have fewer cards. On the other hand, our opponent can punish our keep by taking our mana fixing, and hoping that we don't draw lands. I decided to keep. Being on the draw helps if they take our fixing (more draw steps), but is moot because we would cast the fixing on turn 1 on the play anyways. I do like that the hand was stocked with relevant cards, and they were cheap enough on mana that I might even be able to put up something of a fight if stuck on 1 land for a few turns.
That list actually looks really nice. Makes me want to give Counter Cat a shot. Now that I've embraced Bauble though, it's gonna kill me to give it up.
Speaking of people wanting more 1-drops for Chart a Course, what do you guys think about bringing back (I'm sure it never left for some people) Narnam Renegade? It still seems perfectly fine in the meta, and could be the extra bit of aggressiveness we need for Chart to be good.
I like the list a lot. A lot of the flex slots haven't been relevant often enough for me to know if they are good, but it is running nicely. My awful sample size (10 matches) so far in MTGO Comp Leagues has me at 50% (3-2 and 2-3), which really doesn't mean much, but it's something.
Back to Chart, I'm thinking a list could look something like this:
I'm not sure that's where we want to be, and I imagine figuring out when to sequence Chart a Course is going to lead to a lot of misplays. I also might want the Mountain back into the main with Traverse being gone.
Edit: By the way, how many Blood Moon do you guys bring in against Titanshift? I've been boarding in 2, but maybe 3 is better. It's really powerful, but they don't have many ways of interacting with it.
I was hoping someone would try out Chart a Course. That card looks fantastic against matchups in which we care more about card advantage than tempo. I also really like the synergy you point out with Shoal. Course even offers an additional 2 CMC Blue spell you can pitch. That probably pushes Shoals consistency considerably.
On the topic of Chart, I feel like there is a completely different (okay, not that different, but different enough) build of Delver to be discovered. Chart a Course can probably give enough card advantage to not need Traverse. You can easily support any number of Shoal at that point, and I'd probably want a couple to catch up on tempo if I am running a playset of Chart. Easy access to card advantage means we could rely more heavily on Vapor Snag effects, and be more aggressive.
I'm not sure that build would be any good, or what the cuts from what people play now would be, but Chart a Course just seems really interesting.
I dont think that any one of them is really strictly better than another. They all seem to have an argument to be played, but I am not sure that one clearly stands out from the rest. What we have to determine is which one is the best in the most often situations. I read something about MTG Quartile or something like that were it evaluated cards individually based upon the 4 different main board states in MTG. Can we use that to determine the superior spell possibly?
I agree that all variations of that card are similar in playability, but the percentage points you can get with whichever you pick are really important, hence why I've never really considered Echoing Truth, but am interested in Perilous Voyage. I like the idea of drawing a card whenever you bounce a nonland with CMC 2 or less, and think that such a card would be playable. If scry 2 is even close, it is worth looking into.
I believe you are referring to Quadrant Theory, which is mostly used for Limited. It examines the usefulness of a card when you are developing your board, are ahead on board, are behind on board, and when the board is even (often stalled). I don't think it will be that helpful here just because of how similar these cards are. We could compare the additional effects of each card at these stages of the game (for example, how good is scrying 2 versus costing one less mana), but that sounds about as difficult as estimating the EV of each additional effect (how often will scry 2 lead to us winning versus bouncing a bunch of permanents with the same name).
Question why is this discussion taking place on here instead of Reddit? Isnt reddit a little easier to make separate topics within a RUG Delver Subreddit?
Reddit is definitely a better place to simultaneously have multiple discussions about the deck! It is definitely easier to organize, given that this is but a single thread. However, deck-specific subreddits tend to not get a lot of traffic. It is more likely for less-enfranchised (in our discussions) users to stumble upon this thread and get into RUG Delver than they are to come across such a subreddit. This thread also usually only has action every few days.
As another believer in Traverse, I agree that I like it more than Opt. It is definitely better at helping us hit land drops, probably better at increasing threat density, and might be able to compete in terms of finding interaction (Scour puts helpful cards in the yard, tutor for Snapcaster Mage to cast them). I think a version of Delver running Opt would look very different than a lot of the more recent builds on here.
A while ago (starting at the top of page 161), we discussed Into the Roil as a catch-all for the mainboard, and compared it to cards like Vapor Snag and Echoing Truth.
I just saw a new spoiler, and thought it was very interesting.
Perilous Voyage (1U)
Instant
Return target nonland permanent you don't control to its owner's hand. If its CMC was 2 or less, scry 2.
This is another Echoing Truth-esque card, but the part that is interesting to me is that it gives you the option to scry 2. I bring up Into the Roil because of the kicker to draw a card. How many cards is "scry 2" worth? If Perilous Voyage said "draw 1," I would probably throw it in as a one-off. It would be a catch-all that can potentially cycle by bouncing a cheap dude (or, even better, cycle while bouncing a cheap dude I actually wanted to bounce). That seems pretty good at 2 mana.
Scrying is a lot like drawing when you look at it in terms of EV and Percentage Points. If we scry away 2 cards we don't want, we sort of drew 2 cards deep towards what we did want. There are of course situations in which the scry is useless (we want both, in the order they were, and the information of what is on top of the deck doesn't help us).
I have no idea if this card is any good. Some notable things include scrying having synergy in our deck (Delver mostly, but also cantrips in general), and that this can't bounce our own creatures to save them from removal. I just think it is really interesting in theory, and could very well be great for us.
(...) Most players cast selection cantrips for the choice they provide, and we almost always are willing/able/incentivized to make that choice at sorcery speed (...)
I guess this is where our disagreement really finds place. I really don't agree with that sentence and I regard the ability to cast cantrips at instant speed as incredibly powerful. But thinking about it, I believe this mostly derives from the different decks we favor playing. Although I play pretty much any type of deck, I had 90% of my good tournament finishes in Modern with Jeskai decks of different types. On the other hand you tend to play decks with a different playstyle such as this one or CounterCat. So we have a different mindset about how to use cantrips and sequence spells. For me, having to cast a Serum Visions or a Sleight of Hand when I have 4 mana and I'm holding a Cryptic is really painful. But staying mana open for the Cryptic and keep the Serum in hand is also bad. In fact, I don't want to be in that situation at all. I want to play my spells accordingly to what my opponent does and always trying to maximize the use of my lands. I also like to respond with cantrips to some of my opponent's plays to find answers for those plays. So maybe when I play RUG Delver I still keep a little bit of that more reactive, instant-speed based playstyle I have with Jeskai. Maybe it's wrong, but sometimes, I won't cast that Goyf and hold mana for Leak instead.
So Opt doesn't make the cut here 'cause we need sorceries in the graveyard, but other than that, personally I would play it 'cause it suits my playstyle more even here. I can hold mana for Leak and Opt EOT. I don't know if playing RUG that way is always wrong. Maybe it is, we're supposed to be proactive. But I still feel sometimes if I don't have Shoal it's just wrong to tap out.
Getting back to your sentence, I don't know, I still don't see why "most players" would want to cast cantrips at sorcery speed. Unless again, they're in topdeck mode. But if I have a hand full of cards, I like to be able to play my cantrips whenever I want according to the situation, instead of having to sequence my spells and whole gameplan in a way or another just because I need to cast cantrips that could in fact just be suboptimal plays depending on the context.
I think the best answer to all of this is, unfortunately, "it depends."
I absolutely see where you are coming from. Often it is best to not slam your Goyf and instead hold up Mana Leak (particularly on the draw against BGx). There have definitely been turns on which I wanted to cast Visions and hold up mana for counters, but couldn't do both. Those are some of the hardest decisions we have to make.
I very much enjoy being able to hold up Scour and counterspells, so I see where you are coming from with wanting to cantrip on the opponent's endstep. However, I think I know what Ashton means by players wanting to cast cantrips at sorcery speed. Cantrips show you more cards. Seeing more cards means you have more options. We like our options. If I have excess mana, I will cantrip at sorcery speed so that I have more options on how to interact. If your opponent plays a spell, you counter it, and then you cantrip and find a counter you would have preferred to use, you should have used the cantrip sooner. This is of course somewhat moot because you can cantrip in response (I very much enjoy Scouring with spells on the stack to find more cards), but that is the sort of thing he means.
A better example occurs when we involve sorcery-speed plays. You have five mana available. You have an Opt, and a Mana Leak in hand. You can either pass and hold up your stuff, or you can cantrip, hope to find a threat, play it if you do, and still hold up Leak. Now, that is fairly close to topdecking, so let's add some more cards. You can also have a Delver and want to cantrip to find a bigger threat. Or you could have a bunch of Bolt effects, or a Vapor Snag, etc. We really don't have that many "types" of cards (cantrip, threat, counter, removal/burn, and land) so it is difficult to come up with a hand that doesn't have a bunch of redundant cards.
I just thought of another way to explain it that might be better. Mishra's Bauble provides a delayed draw trigger. It essentially cantrips, but not immediately. If you had the choice to draw your card immediately, you would usually take it (exclusions that come to mind include discard effects and Delver/fetch scrying). That is because it gives you your option sooner. Even if you have something to do for your turn, you might draw a better play. If cantripping now doesn't prevent that play you already have (you have enough mana), there is unlikely to be any downside to finding out if the mystery card is in fact a better play.
I think the point is that by cantripping sooner, you have your options sooner. That isn't always relevant, but sometimes it is. Even if you have a full grip, if you don't need to hold up that mana, cantrip sooner, because you might find a better play that you should make now. Due to that, the instant-speed is less important than it might seem (I should note that I find it very important due to the fact that being an instant gives us an extra pseudo-option in that we can cast it now or later). In the scenarios that you want to cast an instant on your main phase, the card being an instant does not matter, and a sorcery would have been just as good. In such a case, all else being equal, you would rather cast Sleight than Opt because, at sorcery speed, it is a slightly better card.
Full disclosure: I am arguing on behalf of the upside of Sleight of Hand (or rather the lack of upside of Opt being an instant), but, having done never played it or Opt in this deck, I would probably start with Opt because I have a feeling that the percentage points gained by the instant speed outweigh those gained by the extra info of Sleight. That of course doesn't include the fact that we do sometimes have trouble getting sorceries in the graveyard, but that is less relevant if you are not cutting sorceries for Opt (those who never played Sleight may not feel a difference in sorcery count between pre and post Opt Delver iterations).
The Opt->Delver trigger is a nonbo if you ask me. End of the day nothing changed wheter or not you do cast that Opt in response to the trigger.
And if you dont reveal the Delver trigger and want to scry it would have been the same decision if you would Opted before hand.
Casting Opt in response to a Delver trigger causes you to scry, draw, and look at a card with Delver. I agree that scry + draw and look at card with Delver don't have synergy here. The two effects happen separately and don't affect each other.
I'm not sure if this is what Lemonbuster was thinking, but Opt immediately after the trigger RESOLVES is somewhat useful. Look at card with Delver, then scry and draw. If you see a card you don't want with Delver, you can scry it away before your draw, draw off of Opt, and draw for turn. It is notable that you can do this with Scour essentially.
That's exciting! Wizards apparently wants to add some more card selection to Modern.
This isn't quite strictly better than Sleight of Hand (you look at one card, then draw it or a mystery card), but I think the Instant speed means decks playing Sleight will switch to this. I think we can expect it out of Blue Shadow decks, Storm, and Ad Nauseum.
I'm definitely going to look at playing this. This is a big change for Delver decks. Probably the most dramatic change to our card pool since the Probe ban.
I should specify: I'm not cutting my current Ancient Grudge. My plan was just to add a second Revelry over a second Grudge.
This is a really good opportunity to talk about sideboards. What is everyone running currently, and why?
The slots I am most iffy on for mine are the Anger, Spell Snare, and Vapor Snag. Spell Snare is basically just a good card, but is nice against Midrange and most combo. Vapor Snag is mostly for dealing with fatties, but I have a lot of trouble fitting it in when I sideboard. Maybe it should go. I could see running more specific answers and siding out some of the general stuff.
The question for me is, is it better than engineered explosives?
This is what I've been asking myself the last couple of days. I really want to put Melody in my EE slot, but I don't know if it deserves it. I'll probably try it and see how it goes when it comes out.
EE can only hit non-lands with a CMC between 1 and 3, so Melody hits most of its targets. Melody fortunately is a 2-for-1, which means it has a sweeper-like effect as far as card advantage is concerned. Blowing up two Shadows/Goyfs is about as good as stealing one, although possibly a bit better (the opponent probably has an easier time removing big threats). Melody looks much better when the opponent has a diversity of threats on board: if they have a Shadow and a Goyf, Melody looks much better than EE. I think it will be rare that Midrange opponents have 3 or more threats we can EE at once.
I start to lose faith in Melody when I look at EE's versatility though. EE can act as artifact/enchantment hate, and is amazing against decks like Merfolk. Cutting it for Melody means that we lose that aspect of the card. I think if we do, we should shore up the kinds of matchups in which we want EE for its versatility. The most prominent of these I think are Eldrazi Tron, Affinity, and Merfolk.
If we start trimming/cutting EE, what do you all think we should run to supplement our sideboards?
My current sideboard is what I have posted on the bottom of 162, but with Anger of the Gods instead of Izzet Staticaster. I haven't really liked Staticaster much, and figured I'd try a bigger sweeper with bonus graveyard hate.
In my board, I'd probably drop my Spell Snare (Melody helps with Midrange) for another Revelry. Anger helps against Merfolk (probably less than EE), and the Revelry should do some good work against Eldrazi Tron and Affinity. I think Revelry gets the slot over Ancient Grudge for more enchantment hate, but there are plenty of similar cards.
I think that Melody as a sorcery is very interesting. If it were an instant, I'd be tempted to maindeck it in a Vapor Snag slot due to its power and versatility, but I think that sorcery speed pushes it too far towards the clunky extreme. There are definitely decks that instant speed Melody would be bad against, but being able to steal Manlands seems really good. In the late game, it could even take some animated Planeswalkers.
As a sorcery, the limitations are much more prevalent. We are unlikely to take Manlands or Planeswalkers. This makes it much worse against Control. It is also quite bad against Eldrazi decks until we hit 6-7 lands. I don't like bringing it in there because the Eldrazi nut-draws are very aggressive. I don't like it against Burn or Affinity (they are way too fast), but if it were an instant, I'd be tempted to use it against Affinity to hit Inkmoth and Blinkmoth. It looks somewhat useful against Company decks (and other creature heavy decks, assuming they aren't too aggressive), stealing us a Knight of the Reliquary or other large threat. It seems fantastic against BGx, taking Goyfs, Flayers, Bobs, and eventually Olivias and Kalitases. Not being hit by Abrupt Decay makes me think that Melody will be at its best here: the games tend to go long, the threats are mana-efficient, and the card advantage from Melody is appreciated. It seems excellent against Death's Shadow Jund given that it hits Shadow and Goyf. It is definitely worse against the Grixis variant due to Delve threats and Denial. If DSJ was still the top dog, this card might just be maindeckable. I think Eldrazi was less prevalent then too (I don't remember), so if the meta goes back to that sort of thing, this deserves more consideration.
Given that it will cost us 3+ mana most of the time, I'd say this is a late game haymaker for us. It is at its best in interactive matchups in which we will inevitably hit land drops. It also wants us to have a host of good targets, so decks that run a decent amount of creatures would be preferred. I think this means we mostly want this against Midrange. It reminds me very much of Bedlam Reveler in this aspect, except it is far worse against Control (if this was an instant it would probably fill Reveler's role in a more conservative, less weak to hate way).
Looking at the current meta on MTGGoldfish (I know the data isn't the greatest; I was going to use http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/780304-mtg-modern-competitive-meta-analysis-and-tier-list , but it seems to be on hold for now), Melody looks awful right now. The top decks are Titanshift, Grixis Shadow, Storm, Affinity, E Tron, Burn, UW Control, Abzan, and Jeskai Tempo. I'd probably bring Melody in against Shadow (not sure if that is great, but killing or stealing a Shadow isn't bad), Abzan, and maybe Jeskai (depends on how good stealing Queller is), but probably not. I think the only real work Melody will be doing for now is helping against Midrange, which is conveniently a difficult matchup for us. We do run cards specifically for it (although they usually extend to Control as well). I think I could roll with one Melody in the board, but I'm really not sure it will deserve the slot.
I would switch back to Simic Charm once the meta shifts back towards more interactive decks. Vapor Snag is better against the more linear ones.
I haven't tried Delay yet, but it looks very nice against Combo decks that want to go off on time. It obviously rewards aggressiveness, but doesn't require it as much as Remand does. I don't think I like it against Midrange and Control, especially when we go for a slower game plan postboard, but that depends on how you sideboard.
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It's good to hear you are liking Knucks. I'm still on the fence with it since it only comes up so often. I really like what it can do, but it is a lot slower than the rest of our threats, which really punishes our threat-light hands when we need to get a creature down quickly.
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Peezy is actually a really good idea though. That could make trimming Mandrills and Scour more feasible. With Chart, I might even drop my Reveler for a sideboard Peezy.
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We are on the draw in game 3, and our 7 is Snapcaster, Traverse, Goyf, Denial, Tarfire, Delver, fetch (Flooded Strand but should be Tarn for discussion's sake). Given that we are playing against a deck with ~6 discard spells, I expected turn 1 Inquisition/Thoughtseize. This is also relevant for mulligans against Abzan, 8 Rack, and Shadow decks. For those who don't play Traverse, I've encountered spots like this one in which the "fixing" in our hand is Serum Visions.
Generally speaking, mulligans against discard decks get punished because they will pick your hand apart, and it is easier for them when you have fewer cards. On the other hand, our opponent can punish our keep by taking our mana fixing, and hoping that we don't draw lands. I decided to keep. Being on the draw helps if they take our fixing (more draw steps), but is moot because we would cast the fixing on turn 1 on the play anyways. I do like that the hand was stocked with relevant cards, and they were cheap enough on mana that I might even be able to put up something of a fight if stuck on 1 land for a few turns.
Would you keep or mull, and why?
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Speaking of people wanting more 1-drops for Chart a Course, what do you guys think about bringing back (I'm sure it never left for some people) Narnam Renegade? It still seems perfectly fine in the meta, and could be the extra bit of aggressiveness we need for Chart to be good.
This is my current list:
4x Tarmogoyf
4x Hooting Mandrills
2x Snapcaster Mage
1x Savage Knuckleblade
1x Disrupting Shoal
2x Spell Snare
3x Stubborn Denial
2x Mana Leak
4x Lightning Bolt
1x Tarfire
1x Forked Bolt
1x Vapor Snag
1x Dismember
4x Serum Visions
3x Thought Scour
2x Traverse the Ulvenwald
3x Mishra's Bauble
4x Scalding Tarn
2x Wooded Foothills
2x Steam Vents
1x Breeding Pool
1x Stomping Ground
2x Island
1x Forest
1x Destructive Revelry
1x Entrancing Melody
2x Ceremonious Rejection
1x Flashfreeze
3x Blood Moon
2x Pyroclasm
1x Mountain
2x Huntmaster of the Fells
1x Bedlam Reveler
I like the list a lot. A lot of the flex slots haven't been relevant often enough for me to know if they are good, but it is running nicely. My awful sample size (10 matches) so far in MTGO Comp Leagues has me at 50% (3-2 and 2-3), which really doesn't mean much, but it's something.
Back to Chart, I'm thinking a list could look something like this:
4x Tarmogoyf
4x Hooting Mandrills
2x Narnam Renegade
1x Snapcaster Mage
3x Disrupting Shoal
3x Stubborn Denial
2x Mana Leak
1x Tarfire
1x Vapor Snag
1x Dismember
4x Serum Visions
3x Thought Scour
3x Chart a Course
3x Mishra's Bauble
4x Scalding Tarn
2x Wooded Foothills
2x Steam Vents
1x Breeding Pool
1x Stomping Ground
2x Island
1x Forest
I'm not sure that's where we want to be, and I imagine figuring out when to sequence Chart a Course is going to lead to a lot of misplays. I also might want the Mountain back into the main with Traverse being gone.
Edit: By the way, how many Blood Moon do you guys bring in against Titanshift? I've been boarding in 2, but maybe 3 is better. It's really powerful, but they don't have many ways of interacting with it.
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On the topic of Chart, I feel like there is a completely different (okay, not that different, but different enough) build of Delver to be discovered. Chart a Course can probably give enough card advantage to not need Traverse. You can easily support any number of Shoal at that point, and I'd probably want a couple to catch up on tempo if I am running a playset of Chart. Easy access to card advantage means we could rely more heavily on Vapor Snag effects, and be more aggressive.
I'm not sure that build would be any good, or what the cuts from what people play now would be, but Chart a Course just seems really interesting.
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I agree that all variations of that card are similar in playability, but the percentage points you can get with whichever you pick are really important, hence why I've never really considered Echoing Truth, but am interested in Perilous Voyage. I like the idea of drawing a card whenever you bounce a nonland with CMC 2 or less, and think that such a card would be playable. If scry 2 is even close, it is worth looking into.
I believe you are referring to Quadrant Theory, which is mostly used for Limited. It examines the usefulness of a card when you are developing your board, are ahead on board, are behind on board, and when the board is even (often stalled). I don't think it will be that helpful here just because of how similar these cards are. We could compare the additional effects of each card at these stages of the game (for example, how good is scrying 2 versus costing one less mana), but that sounds about as difficult as estimating the EV of each additional effect (how often will scry 2 lead to us winning versus bouncing a bunch of permanents with the same name).
Reddit is definitely a better place to simultaneously have multiple discussions about the deck! It is definitely easier to organize, given that this is but a single thread. However, deck-specific subreddits tend to not get a lot of traffic. It is more likely for less-enfranchised (in our discussions) users to stumble upon this thread and get into RUG Delver than they are to come across such a subreddit. This thread also usually only has action every few days.
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A while ago (starting at the top of page 161), we discussed Into the Roil as a catch-all for the mainboard, and compared it to cards like Vapor Snag and Echoing Truth.
I just saw a new spoiler, and thought it was very interesting.
Perilous Voyage (1U)
Instant
Return target nonland permanent you don't control to its owner's hand. If its CMC was 2 or less, scry 2.
This is another Echoing Truth-esque card, but the part that is interesting to me is that it gives you the option to scry 2. I bring up Into the Roil because of the kicker to draw a card. How many cards is "scry 2" worth? If Perilous Voyage said "draw 1," I would probably throw it in as a one-off. It would be a catch-all that can potentially cycle by bouncing a cheap dude (or, even better, cycle while bouncing a cheap dude I actually wanted to bounce). That seems pretty good at 2 mana.
Scrying is a lot like drawing when you look at it in terms of EV and Percentage Points. If we scry away 2 cards we don't want, we sort of drew 2 cards deep towards what we did want. There are of course situations in which the scry is useless (we want both, in the order they were, and the information of what is on top of the deck doesn't help us).
I remember reading a lot about how many cards scrying was worth a while ago. I think it was around when they changed the mulligan rule, but I could be totally wrong. One such discussion I found via google: https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/537w5x/how_much_is_scry_worth_in_terms_of_card_draw/
I have no idea if this card is any good. Some notable things include scrying having synergy in our deck (Delver mostly, but also cantrips in general), and that this can't bounce our own creatures to save them from removal. I just think it is really interesting in theory, and could very well be great for us.
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I think the best answer to all of this is, unfortunately, "it depends."
I absolutely see where you are coming from. Often it is best to not slam your Goyf and instead hold up Mana Leak (particularly on the draw against BGx). There have definitely been turns on which I wanted to cast Visions and hold up mana for counters, but couldn't do both. Those are some of the hardest decisions we have to make.
I very much enjoy being able to hold up Scour and counterspells, so I see where you are coming from with wanting to cantrip on the opponent's endstep. However, I think I know what Ashton means by players wanting to cast cantrips at sorcery speed. Cantrips show you more cards. Seeing more cards means you have more options. We like our options. If I have excess mana, I will cantrip at sorcery speed so that I have more options on how to interact. If your opponent plays a spell, you counter it, and then you cantrip and find a counter you would have preferred to use, you should have used the cantrip sooner. This is of course somewhat moot because you can cantrip in response (I very much enjoy Scouring with spells on the stack to find more cards), but that is the sort of thing he means.
A better example occurs when we involve sorcery-speed plays. You have five mana available. You have an Opt, and a Mana Leak in hand. You can either pass and hold up your stuff, or you can cantrip, hope to find a threat, play it if you do, and still hold up Leak. Now, that is fairly close to topdecking, so let's add some more cards. You can also have a Delver and want to cantrip to find a bigger threat. Or you could have a bunch of Bolt effects, or a Vapor Snag, etc. We really don't have that many "types" of cards (cantrip, threat, counter, removal/burn, and land) so it is difficult to come up with a hand that doesn't have a bunch of redundant cards.
I just thought of another way to explain it that might be better. Mishra's Bauble provides a delayed draw trigger. It essentially cantrips, but not immediately. If you had the choice to draw your card immediately, you would usually take it (exclusions that come to mind include discard effects and Delver/fetch scrying). That is because it gives you your option sooner. Even if you have something to do for your turn, you might draw a better play. If cantripping now doesn't prevent that play you already have (you have enough mana), there is unlikely to be any downside to finding out if the mystery card is in fact a better play.
I think the point is that by cantripping sooner, you have your options sooner. That isn't always relevant, but sometimes it is. Even if you have a full grip, if you don't need to hold up that mana, cantrip sooner, because you might find a better play that you should make now. Due to that, the instant-speed is less important than it might seem (I should note that I find it very important due to the fact that being an instant gives us an extra pseudo-option in that we can cast it now or later). In the scenarios that you want to cast an instant on your main phase, the card being an instant does not matter, and a sorcery would have been just as good. In such a case, all else being equal, you would rather cast Sleight than Opt because, at sorcery speed, it is a slightly better card.
Full disclosure: I am arguing on behalf of the upside of Sleight of Hand (or rather the lack of upside of Opt being an instant), but, having done never played it or Opt in this deck, I would probably start with Opt because I have a feeling that the percentage points gained by the instant speed outweigh those gained by the extra info of Sleight. That of course doesn't include the fact that we do sometimes have trouble getting sorceries in the graveyard, but that is less relevant if you are not cutting sorceries for Opt (those who never played Sleight may not feel a difference in sorcery count between pre and post Opt Delver iterations).
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Casting Opt in response to a Delver trigger causes you to scry, draw, and look at a card with Delver. I agree that scry + draw and look at card with Delver don't have synergy here. The two effects happen separately and don't affect each other.
I'm not sure if this is what Lemonbuster was thinking, but Opt immediately after the trigger RESOLVES is somewhat useful. Look at card with Delver, then scry and draw. If you see a card you don't want with Delver, you can scry it away before your draw, draw off of Opt, and draw for turn. It is notable that you can do this with Scour essentially.
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This isn't quite strictly better than Sleight of Hand (you look at one card, then draw it or a mystery card), but I think the Instant speed means decks playing Sleight will switch to this. I think we can expect it out of Blue Shadow decks, Storm, and Ad Nauseum.
I'm definitely going to look at playing this. This is a big change for Delver decks. Probably the most dramatic change to our card pool since the Probe ban.
Let the testing/theorycrafting begin!
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This is a really good opportunity to talk about sideboards. What is everyone running currently, and why?
The slots I am most iffy on for mine are the Anger, Spell Snare, and Vapor Snag. Spell Snare is basically just a good card, but is nice against Midrange and most combo. Vapor Snag is mostly for dealing with fatties, but I have a lot of trouble fitting it in when I sideboard. Maybe it should go. I could see running more specific answers and siding out some of the general stuff.
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This is what I've been asking myself the last couple of days. I really want to put Melody in my EE slot, but I don't know if it deserves it. I'll probably try it and see how it goes when it comes out.
EE can only hit non-lands with a CMC between 1 and 3, so Melody hits most of its targets. Melody fortunately is a 2-for-1, which means it has a sweeper-like effect as far as card advantage is concerned. Blowing up two Shadows/Goyfs is about as good as stealing one, although possibly a bit better (the opponent probably has an easier time removing big threats). Melody looks much better when the opponent has a diversity of threats on board: if they have a Shadow and a Goyf, Melody looks much better than EE. I think it will be rare that Midrange opponents have 3 or more threats we can EE at once.
I start to lose faith in Melody when I look at EE's versatility though. EE can act as artifact/enchantment hate, and is amazing against decks like Merfolk. Cutting it for Melody means that we lose that aspect of the card. I think if we do, we should shore up the kinds of matchups in which we want EE for its versatility. The most prominent of these I think are Eldrazi Tron, Affinity, and Merfolk.
If we start trimming/cutting EE, what do you all think we should run to supplement our sideboards?
My current sideboard is what I have posted on the bottom of 162, but with Anger of the Gods instead of Izzet Staticaster. I haven't really liked Staticaster much, and figured I'd try a bigger sweeper with bonus graveyard hate.
In my board, I'd probably drop my Spell Snare (Melody helps with Midrange) for another Revelry. Anger helps against Merfolk (probably less than EE), and the Revelry should do some good work against Eldrazi Tron and Affinity. I think Revelry gets the slot over Ancient Grudge for more enchantment hate, but there are plenty of similar cards.
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As a sorcery, the limitations are much more prevalent. We are unlikely to take Manlands or Planeswalkers. This makes it much worse against Control. It is also quite bad against Eldrazi decks until we hit 6-7 lands. I don't like bringing it in there because the Eldrazi nut-draws are very aggressive. I don't like it against Burn or Affinity (they are way too fast), but if it were an instant, I'd be tempted to use it against Affinity to hit Inkmoth and Blinkmoth. It looks somewhat useful against Company decks (and other creature heavy decks, assuming they aren't too aggressive), stealing us a Knight of the Reliquary or other large threat. It seems fantastic against BGx, taking Goyfs, Flayers, Bobs, and eventually Olivias and Kalitases. Not being hit by Abrupt Decay makes me think that Melody will be at its best here: the games tend to go long, the threats are mana-efficient, and the card advantage from Melody is appreciated. It seems excellent against Death's Shadow Jund given that it hits Shadow and Goyf. It is definitely worse against the Grixis variant due to Delve threats and Denial. If DSJ was still the top dog, this card might just be maindeckable. I think Eldrazi was less prevalent then too (I don't remember), so if the meta goes back to that sort of thing, this deserves more consideration.
Given that it will cost us 3+ mana most of the time, I'd say this is a late game haymaker for us. It is at its best in interactive matchups in which we will inevitably hit land drops. It also wants us to have a host of good targets, so decks that run a decent amount of creatures would be preferred. I think this means we mostly want this against Midrange. It reminds me very much of Bedlam Reveler in this aspect, except it is far worse against Control (if this was an instant it would probably fill Reveler's role in a more conservative, less weak to hate way).
Looking at the current meta on MTGGoldfish (I know the data isn't the greatest; I was going to use http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/780304-mtg-modern-competitive-meta-analysis-and-tier-list , but it seems to be on hold for now), Melody looks awful right now. The top decks are Titanshift, Grixis Shadow, Storm, Affinity, E Tron, Burn, UW Control, Abzan, and Jeskai Tempo. I'd probably bring Melody in against Shadow (not sure if that is great, but killing or stealing a Shadow isn't bad), Abzan, and maybe Jeskai (depends on how good stealing Queller is), but probably not. I think the only real work Melody will be doing for now is helping against Midrange, which is conveniently a difficult matchup for us. We do run cards specifically for it (although they usually extend to Control as well). I think I could roll with one Melody in the board, but I'm really not sure it will deserve the slot.
Thoughts?
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