Also, interactivity with the turn 3 win is taken into account. Most decks have SOMETHING going on in them that interacts with creatures - or at least ones that want to win.
That's why Infect/Affinity have not been touched outside of the artifact lands - most decks will have a way to disrupt them / interact with them by turn 3, through creature removal, discard, or perhaps a Remand or Mana Leak.
The reason why Seething song got the axe was because storm was often as fast as god hand infect/affinity draws, was more consistent due to cantrips/deck manipulation, and could not be interacted with as often as a creature based combo could. You had to have the right combination of discard, counter magic, enchantment removal, and possibly graveyard removalAdding Goblin Electromancer KIND of made things more interactive, but at the expense of speeding up the deck even more with Song available.
References for previous statement - Please look at ban list and notice cards like ponder preordain seething song sword of the meek etc. All mediocre cards...All banned because they're too good in modern.
How are these cards mediocre again? Ponder and Preordain are amazing cantrips - in fact, they are the two best in the game behind Brainstorm...
I do agree though about Sword of the Meek.. that entire engine DOES look pretty mediocre compared to what other decks are doing and the plentiful amount of MAINDECK hate, let alone sideboard hate that is around for the engine (since the engine is the only thing that matters, Sword of the Meek on its own is useless)
Dredge can definitely win by at least turn 3 with Dread Return, a nut draw, AND 0 interaction from the opponent. The latter two are huge mitigating factors, especially the fact that maindeck graveyard hate is SO prevalent right now.
The most popular manadork in the format answers Dredge for crying out loud...
Unless the aggro deck was like Death and Taxes or Hatebears and had a lot of hate for artifacts like Jitte. OR if it was Affinity, it could potentially race Jitte, perhaps play Phyrexian Revoker for Jitte, or might even play Jitte itself.
People would definitely start playing more Abrupt Decay in GB decks.
WRT AV and combo decks - not sure if they'd play this over cantrips. Actually, I'm fairly certain that they wouldn't.
AV probably wouldn't be played by OR power up Twin or Storm, whereas Ponder and Preordain would, with 100 percent certainty do this.
BB... I still don't think is safe to unban. So WHAT if abrupt decay is a card - so are Mistbind Clique and Scion of Oona. I don't understand how this card, which isn't even being played THAT much, changes much of anything. Shroud = Shroud. And every other piece of removal for BB can still be countered (or discarded for that matter, just like AD)
It still seems fairly easy to protect BB from removal and ride it + some disruption ( Remand, Thoughtseize, Clique, Spellstutter Sprite) to victory.
I tried brewing control for like a year and a half... You basically NEED to be playing Bolt if you're playing control. This rules out Esper immediately. Grixis offers you Bolt, discard, and counterspells, but in the end the finishers are lacking and it becomes abundantly clear that switching the blue for green to get Ooze, Goyf, and DRS is a better gameplan than trying to hold out until Cruel Ultimatum or Nicol Bolas. You'll begin to see a pattern here pretty quickly.
So, we've established that you're basically locked into URW to get enough of the versatile removal. (ie Path to Exile and stuff that can also be pointed at opponents head). Still.. the deck is lacking.
So.. you can beat affinity handily. And go about even with decks like G/W or monowhite hatebears, Merfolks, Zoo, Infect, and other aggro decks.
You fall behind Jund very quickly assuming you both have a similar-ish opening hands. Their cards are better than yours - their two AND one drop hose your Snapcaster mage, their Goyfs grow quickly, and their discard in Liliana IOK and Thoughtseize is especially strong against your controllish nature. This crucial matchup is about 60 percent in their favor.
Tron goes over the top of you unless you can out-tempo them, then burn them out. You're both trying to play the long game, and theres is better.
You get the same problem with combo decks... the meta requires so much removal in a control deck that it doesn't allow you to pack enough counterspells to keep down stuff like Scapeshift and Tron.
Twin is, at best, 50/50... perhaps slightly in your favor, depending on their build. However, your lack of a solid win condition when your forced to leave up removal and unable to animate Colonnades will show quickly. They will have a ton of time in this matchup to sculpt their hand, whereas you for the most part are relying on topdecks without a Bob effect to get some CA.
The presence of Bogle forces you to devote sb to a gameplan because virtually NOTHING you do maindeck interacts with them.
SO, in summation:
1. You beat everything that Jund beats already.
2. You have problems with pretty much everything Jund has problems with, though they have an edge here because their discard is more impactful than your counterspells typically.
3. Jund demonstrably plays better cards than you do - they have a Diabolic EdictDelirium Skeins hybrid permanent at 3 CMC that is soooo much better than your 3 drops (And owns the crap out of you to boot by putting you into topdeck mode)
They come out the gates quicker and put on way more pressure, which is loads better than your end-game of Celestial Colonnade beats.
4. You lose to Jund more often than not.
So, why play a control variant when Jund plays a better control game than you to begin with? They have around the same removal as you do (You get Path to Exile while they get Liliana's edict and Terminate), but their proactive control plan in discard is better than your reactive counterspell plan most of the time.
Jund is just a BGx control shell with some bells and whistles added on to make it "midrangey". It's also thoroughly proven to be doing what you're TRYING to do, but better.
Also, Cryptic Command is far from the best card in modern.
Also, you really belive that Ajanj, Huntmaster and lingering souls can really get any near the advantage that BBE gave? You really kidding right? The advantage BBE gives to jund can't be compared to anything that is being used now to replace it.
He's got a good point here, though I can only agree anecdotally - from my experience testing Jund and 4 color Jund brews pre BBElf ban, the lines of play GENERALLY went something like this:
1. Analyze the board state, opponents graveyard and cards in hand, life totals, and so on before carefully deciding how you wanted to proceed in the game
2. Draw Bloodbraid Elf.
3. Completely disregard everything considered in step 1 and slam BBelf.
I'm generalizing, of course, but the card brought SO MUCH advantage that it really could invalidate strategy and turn things in a cascade lottery...
I distinctly remember both winning AND losing Jund mirror matches where I feel like both my opponent and I played optimally that were decided SOLELY on one of us getting more BBelf or BBelf at the right time, or getting luckier off BBelf. I remember BBelf winning me games that I should have lost due to my own misplays a number of different times.
It just, well... made the game feel like 'fake' Magic some of the times. It's such a feel bad card - It gave that sour feeling Kibler must have felt when he lost to that topdecked Bonfire, only with a number of different cascade targets, and it happened repeatedly over the course of games and matches.
Is this different from any other mise? I think so - not every mise is an inherent 2-for-1 from the getgo (again, barring you hit discard into an empty hand) BBelf really can't be compared to Huntmaster, Ajani, or Lingering souls here in terms of raw CA because it is vastly superior.
I'm happy it's finally gone - feels like long overdue vindication for a mechanic that was a bit busted slapped onto a undercosted body.
"I don't get this. One removal spell isn't legal, so another should be banned?"
There is no colour balance. Some are getting all the good stuff (decay, drs, golgari charm which is getting big in legcy thanks to the nemesis mefolk, tarmo, bob), some are getting... bans (wild nacatl). Goyf is ok - nacatl is not? Which one passes the bolt test?
About the combo fans - decks like kiki twin are really consistent - this is not legacy and glass cannon builds suck without tons of cantrips and free mana - why are you complaining? What is better - consistent turn 4-5 wins (something like twin) or magical christmasland decks that rely on mulligans to kill you turn 2. If it the second - congratulations there are many of those in modern (but without the free mana and card filtering)
I do not understand modern combo players -you are basically not playing the same game until you flash 2 cards "I win" combo and declare victory???
It is so boring - wotc may make in the future format where only mirror matches are played - combo vs combo - both players don't care what the opponent is doing and can win without wasting the time of the others.
I'm dissapointed when I goldfish combo players - and some of them say - gg... What was the good in this game - that they played some cantrips and artifacts?
Or wasting my time when they go off???
If you don't like combos to the point that you think playing them is a waste of your time, this is not the game for you.
Playing against Twin can be annoying - but playing to beat it is rewarding, as is making deck / sideboard decisions with twin in mind. It's fairly easy to interact with, compared to the broken stuff that was around earlier.. (infect shoal, turn 3 storm)
I think people are vastly overestimating what SotM can do with the tools available in modern.
Darksteel citadel is the only artifact land you get to play.
You do not get Chrome Mox.
The lack of those two make Thirst for Knowledge a lot worse.
Tron goes over the top of Thopter/Sword very well.
GBx can break your thopter/sword combo very easily.
Affinity and combo decks generally win before you can even get thopter/sword really going.
Many sideboard cards that people are already running are very effective against your combo, like Stony Silence or Rest in Peace.
Everyone seems to only imagine SotM fitting into other formats where they had several other tools that Modern does not have.
SotM could be bad for some other mythical modern format where other aggro decks are actually viable, but there are so many things standing in aggro's way right now, ThopterSword would really just be a drop in the bucket.
That is not to say I think it needs to be unbanned. I lump it in with the likes of Golgari Grave Troll. Its unlikely to have any effect on the format at all, so the only gain is the psychological one of having a smaller banned list.
I think this is a well thought out argument for why sword could come off. You've convinced me, congrats.
In some weird paradoxical way, I want some stuff like this to come back, because I want Thalia to have more an impact from the hatebears/white weenies angle. As of right now, she barely makes the cut, and I rarely go above 2 if I'm even running her.
I kind of want the format to push white weenies lists to be running her as a 4-of, if you catch my drift... it's just so WEIRD to me that she isn't well suited for the current meta game. Same with stuff like Phyrexian Revoker.
Creature based strategies have so many possible new threats like Loxodon Smiter, Blade Splicer, Resto Angel, Revoker, Thalia, Voice of Resurgence, Scavenging Ooze, Leonin Arbiter, etc. that they didn't have back in the days of Thopter/Sword and Bitterblossom's dominance. (Also, there's no Dark Depths, ofc.)
I think a lot of what's been printed recently has swung the pendulum back and made the control vs. aggro/midrange paradigm a lot more balanced, if not in favor of aggro/midrange at the moment.
Don't underestimate a 2 mana Glowrider in the right meta...
A UU counterspell variant that can only hit CMC 3 or less has been mentioned before. I think it is an elegant solution.
Counterspell itself could be fine. I just haven't seen any testing to sway me either way, and I'm certainly not going to do it since I've hung up my Islands, Snaps, and Cliques for a while to play Hatebears.
Ehh.. TNN is kind of moot because it's new and widely recognized as a mistake.
Mongoose is the weakest of RUG delvers threats, only really played because of the shroud. Not really a gamebreaker for modern.
SFM not being in modern is, of course, huge, for a ton of decks (since it would find a likely home in Aggro, Midrange, Tempo, and Control lists)
And Wasteland is of course a huge missing piece of the tempo deck.
Regardless, MOST of the pieces are still here. And without turn 2-3 combo in the format, tempo lists would have more space to focus on creature disruption in this format.
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Yea I didn't say I was in favor of it, just playing out the thought experiment to its logical conclusion.
That's why Infect/Affinity have not been touched outside of the artifact lands - most decks will have a way to disrupt them / interact with them by turn 3, through creature removal, discard, or perhaps a Remand or Mana Leak.
The reason why Seething song got the axe was because storm was often as fast as god hand infect/affinity draws, was more consistent due to cantrips/deck manipulation, and could not be interacted with as often as a creature based combo could. You had to have the right combination of discard, counter magic, enchantment removal, and possibly graveyard removalAdding Goblin Electromancer KIND of made things more interactive, but at the expense of speeding up the deck even more with Song available.
How are these cards mediocre again? Ponder and Preordain are amazing cantrips - in fact, they are the two best in the game behind Brainstorm...
I do agree though about Sword of the Meek.. that entire engine DOES look pretty mediocre compared to what other decks are doing and the plentiful amount of MAINDECK hate, let alone sideboard hate that is around for the engine (since the engine is the only thing that matters, Sword of the Meek on its own is useless)
The most popular manadork in the format answers Dredge for crying out loud...
People would definitely start playing more Abrupt Decay in GB decks.
AV probably wouldn't be played by OR power up Twin or Storm, whereas Ponder and Preordain would, with 100 percent certainty do this.
BB... I still don't think is safe to unban. So WHAT if abrupt decay is a card - so are Mistbind Clique and Scion of Oona. I don't understand how this card, which isn't even being played THAT much, changes much of anything. Shroud = Shroud. And every other piece of removal for BB can still be countered (or discarded for that matter, just like AD)
It still seems fairly easy to protect BB from removal and ride it + some disruption ( Remand, Thoughtseize, Clique, Spellstutter Sprite) to victory.
So, we've established that you're basically locked into URW to get enough of the versatile removal. (ie Path to Exile and stuff that can also be pointed at opponents head). Still.. the deck is lacking.
So.. you can beat affinity handily. And go about even with decks like G/W or monowhite hatebears, Merfolks, Zoo, Infect, and other aggro decks.
You fall behind Jund very quickly assuming you both have a similar-ish opening hands. Their cards are better than yours - their two AND one drop hose your Snapcaster mage, their Goyfs grow quickly, and their discard in Liliana IOK and Thoughtseize is especially strong against your controllish nature. This crucial matchup is about 60 percent in their favor.
Tron goes over the top of you unless you can out-tempo them, then burn them out. You're both trying to play the long game, and theres is better.
You get the same problem with combo decks... the meta requires so much removal in a control deck that it doesn't allow you to pack enough counterspells to keep down stuff like Scapeshift and Tron.
Twin is, at best, 50/50... perhaps slightly in your favor, depending on their build. However, your lack of a solid win condition when your forced to leave up removal and unable to animate Colonnades will show quickly. They will have a ton of time in this matchup to sculpt their hand, whereas you for the most part are relying on topdecks without a Bob effect to get some CA.
The presence of Bogle forces you to devote sb to a gameplan because virtually NOTHING you do maindeck interacts with them.
SO, in summation:
1. You beat everything that Jund beats already.
2. You have problems with pretty much everything Jund has problems with, though they have an edge here because their discard is more impactful than your counterspells typically.
3. Jund demonstrably plays better cards than you do - they have a Diabolic Edict Delirium Skeins hybrid permanent at 3 CMC that is soooo much better than your 3 drops (And owns the crap out of you to boot by putting you into topdeck mode)
They come out the gates quicker and put on way more pressure, which is loads better than your end-game of Celestial Colonnade beats.
4. You lose to Jund more often than not.
So, why play a control variant when Jund plays a better control game than you to begin with? They have around the same removal as you do (You get Path to Exile while they get Liliana's edict and Terminate), but their proactive control plan in discard is better than your reactive counterspell plan most of the time.
Jund is just a BGx control shell with some bells and whistles added on to make it "midrangey". It's also thoroughly proven to be doing what you're TRYING to do, but better.
Also, Cryptic Command is far from the best card in modern.
He's got a good point here, though I can only agree anecdotally - from my experience testing Jund and 4 color Jund brews pre BBElf ban, the lines of play GENERALLY went something like this:
1. Analyze the board state, opponents graveyard and cards in hand, life totals, and so on before carefully deciding how you wanted to proceed in the game
2. Draw Bloodbraid Elf.
3. Completely disregard everything considered in step 1 and slam BBelf.
I'm generalizing, of course, but the card brought SO MUCH advantage that it really could invalidate strategy and turn things in a cascade lottery...
I distinctly remember both winning AND losing Jund mirror matches where I feel like both my opponent and I played optimally that were decided SOLELY on one of us getting more BBelf or BBelf at the right time, or getting luckier off BBelf. I remember BBelf winning me games that I should have lost due to my own misplays a number of different times.
It just, well... made the game feel like 'fake' Magic some of the times. It's such a feel bad card - It gave that sour feeling Kibler must have felt when he lost to that topdecked Bonfire, only with a number of different cascade targets, and it happened repeatedly over the course of games and matches.
Is this different from any other mise? I think so - not every mise is an inherent 2-for-1 from the getgo (again, barring you hit discard into an empty hand) BBelf really can't be compared to Huntmaster, Ajani, or Lingering souls here in terms of raw CA because it is vastly superior.
I'm happy it's finally gone - feels like long overdue vindication for a mechanic that was a bit busted slapped onto a undercosted body.
If you don't like combos to the point that you think playing them is a waste of your time, this is not the game for you.
Playing against Twin can be annoying - but playing to beat it is rewarding, as is making deck / sideboard decisions with twin in mind. It's fairly easy to interact with, compared to the broken stuff that was around earlier.. (infect shoal, turn 3 storm)
I think this is a well thought out argument for why sword could come off. You've convinced me, congrats.
In some weird paradoxical way, I want some stuff like this to come back, because I want Thalia to have more an impact from the hatebears/white weenies angle. As of right now, she barely makes the cut, and I rarely go above 2 if I'm even running her.
I kind of want the format to push white weenies lists to be running her as a 4-of, if you catch my drift... it's just so WEIRD to me that she isn't well suited for the current meta game. Same with stuff like Phyrexian Revoker.
Creature based strategies have so many possible new threats like Loxodon Smiter, Blade Splicer, Resto Angel, Revoker, Thalia, Voice of Resurgence, Scavenging Ooze, Leonin Arbiter, etc. that they didn't have back in the days of Thopter/Sword and Bitterblossom's dominance. (Also, there's no Dark Depths, ofc.)
I think a lot of what's been printed recently has swung the pendulum back and made the control vs. aggro/midrange paradigm a lot more balanced, if not in favor of aggro/midrange at the moment.
Don't underestimate a 2 mana Glowrider in the right meta...
However, could it really break modern without Cabal Therapy, Brainstorm, Ponder, etc?
Even if, hypothetically, Modern got Daze or Force of Will.
Counterspell itself could be fine. I just haven't seen any testing to sway me either way, and I'm certainly not going to do it since I've hung up my Islands, Snaps, and Cliques for a while to play Hatebears.
Mongoose is the weakest of RUG delvers threats, only really played because of the shroud. Not really a gamebreaker for modern.
SFM not being in modern is, of course, huge, for a ton of decks (since it would find a likely home in Aggro, Midrange, Tempo, and Control lists)
And Wasteland is of course a huge missing piece of the tempo deck.
Regardless, MOST of the pieces are still here. And without turn 2-3 combo in the format, tempo lists would have more space to focus on creature disruption in this format.