All those dozens of games you have to play in a row must really start to get to your head. Pretty sure it's just GP fatigue, and he'll beat himself up over it later.
Yep, it's just GP fatigue. Armchair warriors love to beat up players about making misplays in the finals, but after 2 straight days of Magic on one deck with nothing but that deck on the mind, it's hard not to make such errors.
Semifinals
Sotiriadi (Jund) vs. Anteri (RG Tron)
Bjorklund (Living End) vs. Dickmann (Twin)
Jund should take the Twin matchup without much difficulty, and Tron should take Living End down pretty handily. That would leave a Jund/RG Tron finals which should hopefully go to RG Tron for the coolest GP Finish in over a year.
The problem is that "balance" is nearly impossible to achieve. The Jund MU aside, UWR is actually pretty well positioned. A single unban might be enough to make UWR even stronger than BGx is now (note the MIGHT).
Also I don't even know why everyone desperately need control in modern. Standard and LEgacy as well as Pauper do have control decks in the tier 1 section, so why not enjoy control there and play combo/ramp/aggro/midrange in modern?
I don't actually like control. As a combo player, in fact, I really dislike it. But when you have control in your metagame, it's a natural brake to any degenerate combos that arise. In a metagame that's only 11% control, it's a lot easier for a deck like Infect to sneak into a Top 8, let alone 2 Twin and 2 Living End. A good control deck prevents these decks from becoming big, in turn preventing the number of bans needed in a format. I'd rather see a viable control deck than people talking about how Infect needs a ban.
Jund
Jund
Affinity
Melira Pod
Living End
Affinity
Kiki Pod
Melira Pod
Not that bad all things considered. Pod is still arguably the "best" deck in the format, but it doesn't seem either oppressive or particularly overperforming. It's challenging to play well and not completely unbeatable. BGx actually underperformed in this event, which is nice to see.
2) How the heck did Infect get to the Top 8. I don't want to hear all the closet Infect players giving the whole "blah blah blah play around removal blah blah blah I knew this deck was good" speech either. That is either a major anomaly in matchups or a testament to the "oops, i win" power of the deck. It would have been hard to win matchups on day 2 alone with BGx and UWR at 30% of the field. But props to the pilot nonetheless for his finish.
3) Barring a really disastrous Top 9-16 with 6 BGx decks, I'm going to say that Modern doesn't need more bans. We definitely need unbans to increase diversity, but we don't need bans to decrease unnatural deck hegemonies. That's especially true if the MTGO metagame continues to see a decrease in BGx decks after this GP, and if our GP Prague in January looks somewhat similar to this. At this point, it's becoming clear that BGx might not actually be the hands-down best deck in the format. There's a perception that this is true, but it might not be. So players would need incentives to go outside of those colors (e.g. unbans or reprints in blue). What we don't necessarily need are bans on the BGx shell because the evidence is not conclusive that the deck is too out of control.
There's 18 UWR decks listed on day 2. And if you assume 80% of them are mid range, that least 20% as "control." So approximately 4 of those decks are control, as opposed to 15. Then I would guess that at most there's 1 control deck in that other category. Maybe 1 lucky guy managed to 7-2 with grixis. Building a viable non UWR control deck is very hard to do, you'd be breaking the format if you did.
I wrote that 80% were control ("~20% were actually midrange"). But in fairness, I initially wrote that "80% were actually midrange" before realizing that wasn't right and then ninjaediting my post to switch it to 20%. That probably happened in a 60 second window.
So of the 18 UWR decks, 80% are assumed to be control (14-15). The other 20% are assumed to be midrange (3-4). Sorry that this was unclear!
I have half a mind to go back to that THS spoiler thread and quote a lot of people who said Master was bad in Modern. I'm on a very high horse right now in regards to that card. 9 Merfolk decks on Day 2, almost all of them probably packing Master? Lots of people eating their words on that one.
Then there is the metagame breakdown. First of all, a bunch of it is just trashy reporting. What the heck is "Birthing Pod"? Combining Kiki and Melira Pod into one category is ridiculous. Just because they have the same engine, does not mean the decks belong together in one definition. UWR is in a similar boat because we know UWR Midrange and UWR Control are appreciably different, enough such that they shouldn't be combined. And 11 decks in the "Other" category? Those decks are probably the most interesting examples of format diversity, and yet Wizards, in its infinite wisdom, shoves them into one category so we can't see what they are.
Second of all, there's no control in this metagame. Let's assume that a solid 33% of the "Other" decks are control, which is probably an overestimation. That adds 4 decks to the UWR decks in the pool. Let's also assume that ~20% of the UWR decks are actually UWR Midrange, with Geist and such. So that's 15 real UWR control decks and 4 rogue control decks for a total of 19 control decks in the day 2 metagame, just 9% of the total metagame. Even if all 100% of the UWR decks were Control and not Midrange, control would still only be 11% of the format. This is a format that direly needs some archetype balance, and GP Antwerp just shows how underpowered control is in this metagame.
Third, BGx is bad, but not so bad as to cause panic: 26 Jund (probably including Ajundi), 12 Junk, and 2 BG Rock. That's 40 BGx decks on Day 2 for a total metagame share of 20%. That's bad and unhealthy, sure, but it's basically a reflection of MTGO leading into the GP. In fact, it's on the low end of the MTGO metagame which was actually around 22%. It's not particularly interesting from a format diversity perspective, but it's also not necessarily a problem for Modern so long as those decks aren't also dominating the T16 and T8; we knew BGx was going to have a lot of players at this GP, so the question was more about its overperformance than its prevalence.
Small shop and casual Modern is dying. We can't get people to play in events that previously had 30+ people.
This is an important distinction. Large Modern events appear to be doing fine, or even exceeding expectations. But small Modern events have very inconsistent attendance across the country. Some areas (allegedly) have thriving communities of Modern, although I have yet to see actual evidence of that. Other areas have very few Modern events, if any at all, and what events they do have tend to be poorly attended. So it's a little of both when it comes to Modern format health.
One player is 4-0 with a Mono U Devotion deck or Merfolk deck rocking Master of the Waves. Also hearing about a bunch of 3-1 decks with Thassa and Master.
EDIT: I'm feeling very vindicated after I got into a bunch of arguments in the THS spoiler thread about the viability of this card in Modern.
Absolutely massive GP with 1600 players. That's the largest Modern GP ever, and one of the largest in MTG history period. By my count, Extended never saw a GP with that many people in attendance, and Legacy has only seen two.
From what I am seeing on the stream, Martin Juza was on American Twin (or perhaps just RW Twin, if that's really a thing). Haven't seen any totally crazy deckchoices so far, but the day is still young!
what type of deck(s) do you think unbanning preordain would help?
Storm, Delver, and some blue-based control deck. It's the safest unban I can think of on that list which wouldn't help BGx decks and wouldn't promote a deck that was too degenerate. It also helps Twin, but Twin has taken such a beating from BGx in recent weeks that it's probably okay if the deck gets more help.
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Yep, it's just GP fatigue. Armchair warriors love to beat up players about making misplays in the finals, but after 2 straight days of Magic on one deck with nothing but that deck on the mind, it's hard not to make such errors.
Nevermind. Fixed!
Anteri (RG Tron) beats Bonneau (Living End): 2-0
Sotiriadi (Jund) beats Runarsson (Infect): 2-1
Dickmann (Twin) beats Hendriks (Twin): 2-0
Bjorklund (Living End) beats Fior (Affinity): 2-0
Semifinals
Sotiriadi (Jund) vs. Anteri (RG Tron)
Bjorklund (Living End) vs. Dickmann (Twin)
Jund should take the Twin matchup without much difficulty, and Tron should take Living End down pretty handily. That would leave a Jund/RG Tron finals which should hopefully go to RG Tron for the coolest GP Finish in over a year.
I don't actually like control. As a combo player, in fact, I really dislike it. But when you have control in your metagame, it's a natural brake to any degenerate combos that arise. In a metagame that's only 11% control, it's a lot easier for a deck like Infect to sneak into a Top 8, let alone 2 Twin and 2 Living End. A good control deck prevents these decks from becoming big, in turn preventing the number of bans needed in a format. I'd rather see a viable control deck than people talking about how Infect needs a ban.
Jund
Jund
Affinity
Melira Pod
Living End
Affinity
Kiki Pod
Melira Pod
Not that bad all things considered. Pod is still arguably the "best" deck in the format, but it doesn't seem either oppressive or particularly overperforming. It's challenging to play well and not completely unbeatable. BGx actually underperformed in this event, which is nice to see.
Oh, and where is the control!!??
2) How the heck did Infect get to the Top 8. I don't want to hear all the closet Infect players giving the whole "blah blah blah play around removal blah blah blah I knew this deck was good" speech either. That is either a major anomaly in matchups or a testament to the "oops, i win" power of the deck. It would have been hard to win matchups on day 2 alone with BGx and UWR at 30% of the field. But props to the pilot nonetheless for his finish.
3) Barring a really disastrous Top 9-16 with 6 BGx decks, I'm going to say that Modern doesn't need more bans. We definitely need unbans to increase diversity, but we don't need bans to decrease unnatural deck hegemonies. That's especially true if the MTGO metagame continues to see a decrease in BGx decks after this GP, and if our GP Prague in January looks somewhat similar to this. At this point, it's becoming clear that BGx might not actually be the hands-down best deck in the format. There's a perception that this is true, but it might not be. So players would need incentives to go outside of those colors (e.g. unbans or reprints in blue). What we don't necessarily need are bans on the BGx shell because the evidence is not conclusive that the deck is too out of control.
!!
Infect in the Top 8?!
Whoa.
I wrote that 80% were control ("~20% were actually midrange"). But in fairness, I initially wrote that "80% were actually midrange" before realizing that wasn't right and then ninjaediting my post to switch it to 20%. That probably happened in a 60 second window.
So of the 18 UWR decks, 80% are assumed to be control (14-15). The other 20% are assumed to be midrange (3-4). Sorry that this was unclear!
Then there is the metagame breakdown. First of all, a bunch of it is just trashy reporting. What the heck is "Birthing Pod"? Combining Kiki and Melira Pod into one category is ridiculous. Just because they have the same engine, does not mean the decks belong together in one definition. UWR is in a similar boat because we know UWR Midrange and UWR Control are appreciably different, enough such that they shouldn't be combined. And 11 decks in the "Other" category? Those decks are probably the most interesting examples of format diversity, and yet Wizards, in its infinite wisdom, shoves them into one category so we can't see what they are.
Second of all, there's no control in this metagame. Let's assume that a solid 33% of the "Other" decks are control, which is probably an overestimation. That adds 4 decks to the UWR decks in the pool. Let's also assume that ~20% of the UWR decks are actually UWR Midrange, with Geist and such. So that's 15 real UWR control decks and 4 rogue control decks for a total of 19 control decks in the day 2 metagame, just 9% of the total metagame. Even if all 100% of the UWR decks were Control and not Midrange, control would still only be 11% of the format. This is a format that direly needs some archetype balance, and GP Antwerp just shows how underpowered control is in this metagame.
Third, BGx is bad, but not so bad as to cause panic: 26 Jund (probably including Ajundi), 12 Junk, and 2 BG Rock. That's 40 BGx decks on Day 2 for a total metagame share of 20%. That's bad and unhealthy, sure, but it's basically a reflection of MTGO leading into the GP. In fact, it's on the low end of the MTGO metagame which was actually around 22%. It's not particularly interesting from a format diversity perspective, but it's also not necessarily a problem for Modern so long as those decks aren't also dominating the T16 and T8; we knew BGx was going to have a lot of players at this GP, so the question was more about its overperformance than its prevalence.
This is an important distinction. Large Modern events appear to be doing fine, or even exceeding expectations. But small Modern events have very inconsistent attendance across the country. Some areas (allegedly) have thriving communities of Modern, although I have yet to see actual evidence of that. Other areas have very few Modern events, if any at all, and what events they do have tend to be poorly attended. So it's a little of both when it comes to Modern format health.
EDIT: I'm feeling very vindicated after I got into a bunch of arguments in the THS spoiler thread about the viability of this card in Modern.
From what I am seeing on the stream, Martin Juza was on American Twin (or perhaps just RW Twin, if that's really a thing). Haven't seen any totally crazy deckchoices so far, but the day is still young!
We are generally pretty lenient in threads like this, but this is dangerously close to Spam. Let's at least try/pretend to keep the discussion topic
Storm, Delver, and some blue-based control deck. It's the safest unban I can think of on that list which wouldn't help BGx decks and wouldn't promote a deck that was too degenerate. It also helps Twin, but Twin has taken such a beating from BGx in recent weeks that it's probably okay if the deck gets more help.