Mill is outrageously stupid, I actually played against Mind Funeral tonight, and there's nothing we can do. Even without insane mill cards, if 2 Goblin Charbelcher get milled and another gets countered, we can't do much.
Run one Eldrazi in the sideboard. They will expect it, but if they don't have gas you get a freebie.
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My Modern decks: B/R/G Living End G/R/B G/R Tron R/G U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
I am not sure why you guys have shyed away from Ancient Stirrings. It's a good card.
Aside from counter Protection via Autumn's Veil and maybe Nature's Claim (which is better than Creeping Corrosion IMHO) a heavier artifact based Sideboard is likely where you want to be.
It makes Stirrings much better post board.
Yes it is hit or miss preboard, but I am perfectly fine with that. Not all the cards we run can be winners all the time.
It also appears you guys are setting yourselves up for paying the Dredge Tax by not having any Yard hate like Relic. Bad move.
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My Modern decks: B/R/G Living End G/R/B G/R Tron R/G U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Am I the only person worried/paranoid about going from 8 to 7 lands?
No. The only reason why I would be hesitant is that the math we have one the lands are only for mulligans based on land distribution and not on a combined hand distribution.
The more 2 CMC and 3 CMC cards you pack into the deck will make it unplayable as far as hands you can and cannot keep.
There is no analysis on this yet, and it may be significant based on build type.
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My Modern decks: B/R/G Living End G/R/B G/R Tron R/G U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Recross the Path is crucial to this deck. It is too utilitarian while working towards and achieving your wincon to not be in the deck. It is by far, aside from belcher the best card in the deck.
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My Modern decks: B/R/G Living End G/R/B G/R Tron R/G U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
As for the 11 vs. 12 mana source question, I see where Spitle and I diverged. I was only looking at 0 mana hands, not the so-called goldilocks zone. So let me run it again with that zone in mind. I'm defining "playable hands" in that zone as any hand that is <60% and >0 lands. So for a hand of 7, that's 1, 2, 3, or 4 lands. For 6, it's 1, 2, or 3. For 5, it's 1 or 2. For 4, it's also 1 or 2. Here's the breakdown:
So in each case, you have a 3% lower chance of getting in that goldilocks zone when you cut that additional land.
I think it's just rounding error. That function (hypgeomdist) is going to output the exact same thing as ((11 choose 0)*(49 choose 7))/(60 choose 4). You are getting 77% for the 11 mana source case. I'm getting 77.76%. Also, I think you want to do 1 - the function, which on my excel equals 77.76%.
Yes there is some rounding going on in there. Still once you get into decimals you are talking about thousands of games, which hardly anyone will ever play with any one deck alone.
There are some variables that we are not accounting for, again this just comes down to mulligans due to a no mana source hand and doesn't take into account a hand that has quite a few 2 + 3 CMC cards that are just not keepable without drawing into a 1 CMC tutor (on the draw) and just losing (on the play).
Non-keepable hands based on 1 land variance doesn't seem statistically that important. It might not be true based on CMC of cards drawn. Might be worth a look at the variance in CMC in your builds and the likely hood of having them in your hand.
This is why I am emphasizing the high 1 CMC tutor count.
BTW, your math is off on the odds for drawing 7 Lands + 4 Chancellor.
EDIT: Seems too focused on getting all the lands out of the deck than actually taking chance on one land hit. With one land left in deck Recross is a killer because the last land, without a shuffle effect will be near the top. Then you just lose.
Did you click on the list? It's BG Rock + Souls (i.e. BGw Souls). I just called it "Rock" because I don't want to get into the whole Junk vs. Rock debate here. It was just BG Rock for months, even with a Souls addition. I switched all the terms in case it's unclear.
Yeah, I wouldn't call that list Junk either. It's missing a few critical elements. The sideboard plan for that list is quite a bit different from the typical Rock builds. As such I wouldn't say it is indicative of BG builds.
A better indicator would be to check the Meta for which decks actually pack in Stony Silence as an almost Auto-include to combat weaknesses inherent in that decks strategy.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Run one Eldrazi in the sideboard. They will expect it, but if they don't have gas you get a freebie.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Aside from counter Protection via Autumn's Veil and maybe Nature's Claim (which is better than Creeping Corrosion IMHO) a heavier artifact based Sideboard is likely where you want to be.
It makes Stirrings much better post board.
Yes it is hit or miss preboard, but I am perfectly fine with that. Not all the cards we run can be winners all the time.
It also appears you guys are setting yourselves up for paying the Dredge Tax by not having any Yard hate like Relic. Bad move.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
No. The only reason why I would be hesitant is that the math we have one the lands are only for mulligans based on land distribution and not on a combined hand distribution.
The more 2 CMC and 3 CMC cards you pack into the deck will make it unplayable as far as hands you can and cannot keep.
There is no analysis on this yet, and it may be significant based on build type.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Yes there is some rounding going on in there. Still once you get into decimals you are talking about thousands of games, which hardly anyone will ever play with any one deck alone.
There are some variables that we are not accounting for, again this just comes down to mulligans due to a no mana source hand and doesn't take into account a hand that has quite a few 2 + 3 CMC cards that are just not keepable without drawing into a 1 CMC tutor (on the draw) and just losing (on the play).
Non-keepable hands based on 1 land variance doesn't seem statistically that important. It might not be true based on CMC of cards drawn. Might be worth a look at the variance in CMC in your builds and the likely hood of having them in your hand.
This is why I am emphasizing the high 1 CMC tutor count.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
77%
80%
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Last time I played Rock with Living End we were well into turn 10+ with a pretty stalled board state.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
EDIT: Seems too focused on getting all the lands out of the deck than actually taking chance on one land hit. With one land left in deck Recross is a killer because the last land, without a shuffle effect will be near the top. Then you just lose.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Yeah, I wouldn't call that list Junk either. It's missing a few critical elements. The sideboard plan for that list is quite a bit different from the typical Rock builds. As such I wouldn't say it is indicative of BG builds.
A better indicator would be to check the Meta for which decks actually pack in Stony Silence as an almost Auto-include to combat weaknesses inherent in that decks strategy.
You and I are combo players through and through, but we like winning with Janky stuff.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
All of those are fine with the exception of Pact. Pact is a buyer beware kind of card.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R