If you dont think SCG and any TO/LGS doesnt know what cards are being played, you need a reality check. Its how the big time players stay in business.
Also, maybe Wotc doesnt want the meta solved after 1 large event. Makes the next few months a bit stale.
It's probably this. Wizards has already expressed their disdain for the number crunchers who would try to solve a format, at least when those number crunchers aren't employed by Wizards. To be honest, as I said earlier, I was surprised that they released the GP Day 2 information at all, let alone the win percentages and decklists from the Pro Tour. That information, coupled with the MTGO public dailies, is more than one would need to "solve" the metagame, even if you might have to make some inferences to fill in gaps.
I'm not too familiar with GPs, do they destroy the decklists or keep promise to keep them secret?
If not, I'm sure they could just scan the decklists and put them on-line and let the community compile the data for the meta. They wouldn't have to do any work except scan the documents.
I don't think Wizards wants the decklists public. They stopped publishing all the MTGO 4-0/3-1 daily wins back in October 2012 for a similar reason, and I imagine that the same logic would prevent them from giving us this data. That said, the recent in-depth analyses of PT Valencia and the very detailed GP Day 2 metagame breakdown might mark a turning point in that pattern, but given Wizards' track record, I am doubtful.
Some of those 9-18 decks are pretty cool but overall I am very disappointed with the T16.
EDIT: I am, however, happy to see that none of the other combo decks made it to the T16, which was more or less what any reasonable person could predict. No Storm. No Infect. No Amulet. No Reanimator. None of those decks that people are constantly complaining about but don't actually put up results reliably, especially in big fields, and especially when people are ready for them. This suggests that Modern is, as a format, ready to handle decks like that.
Hopefully the T16 looks a little better. Thank god that the day 2 metagame was diverse because that T8 on its own is a train wreck. Yes, T8's don't actually represent the full metagame, or its diversity, or even the best decks (especially given the size of this GP and all the variables that factor into a T8 qualification). But just analyzing the T8 on its own, oh man is it ugly.
Hopefully the T16 looks a little better. Thank god that the day 2 metagame was diverse because that T8 on its own is a train wreck. Yes, T8's don't actually represent the full metagame, or its diversity, or even the best decks (especially given the size of this GP and all the variables that factor into a T8 qualification). But just analyzing the T8 on its own, oh man is it ugly.
Keep it on the Grand Prix and the format. We are generally pretty lenient in these event threads, but some posts are getting very close to flaming and trolling territory. Consider this a thread-wide warning to stay respectful and on-topic.
As I wrote in the 8Rack thread, I'm legitimately shocked that Lapse or any of the deck's other pilots haven't been talking about that feature article yet.
I don't want to sound like a jerk or anything but I don't think there is a single MTG commentator that I like. :|
True, but there are some that I like more than others!
Some buzz about the Haakon, Stromgald Scourge and Nameless Inversion engine, but it's unclear where it found a home. Also seeing some notes about Cosi's Trickster (for Merfolk, probably), and the Twin combo showing up in just about any deck that can pack it in.
that's what should happen. instead, they'll probably ban something from it before the cycle really establishes itself.
I doubt this. So far, none of the Modern bans have been aimed at preventing cycles. They have been aimed at breaking up consistent, longrunning hegemonies. That's why something like Pod has so far dodged a ban, as with Twin, and why Wizards keeps aiming their bans at Jund.
Honestly, Storm should not do well at this event. Everyone is ready for it both in their sideboards and in their deck choice period. Twin is another matter; I expect to see at least 1 RUG Twin in the T8, and at least 2-3 Twin decks of some kind in the T16.
Judging from the articles on all the major sites, the pros at least are going to be amply prepared for Storm, Twin, Amulet, and all the other combo decks. Given that most players tend to follow the pro lead, I am expecting that many GP Richmond attendees will be more than ready to handle these decks. Expect to see lots of Storm day 1 and a massive drop off for day 2. I bet we see 1 in the T16 but no more.
What do you think caused these wild attendance numbers (2900 and climbing)? Is it the natural growth of Modern? Regional or seasonal interest? Heavy advertisement and involvement from StarCity Games? Printing of Modern Masters (personally loved the set)? Or the perfect storm of all of those things?
So that's the issue with the prediction I posted above; it shows that GP Richmond has way more people than expected, but doesn't give a lot of explanation.
I think you are totally right when suggesting that it's the "perfect storm" of all those things. On top of those you mentioned, I want to emphasize the probably impact of coverage. Wizards has really increase both the quality and quantity of Modern coverage in the last 6 or so months, which has undoubtedly made the format more popular. I don't think that coverage is necessarily any more or less important than any of those reasons, so I just want to add it to the mix.
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It's probably this. Wizards has already expressed their disdain for the number crunchers who would try to solve a format, at least when those number crunchers aren't employed by Wizards. To be honest, as I said earlier, I was surprised that they released the GP Day 2 information at all, let alone the win percentages and decklists from the Pro Tour. That information, coupled with the MTGO public dailies, is more than one would need to "solve" the metagame, even if you might have to make some inferences to fill in gaps.
Let's make sure we are talking about some combination of Magic, Modern, and the Grand Prix.
Carry on!
I don't think Wizards wants the decklists public. They stopped publishing all the MTGO 4-0/3-1 daily wins back in October 2012 for a similar reason, and I imagine that the same logic would prevent them from giving us this data. That said, the recent in-depth analyses of PT Valencia and the very detailed GP Day 2 metagame breakdown might mark a turning point in that pattern, but given Wizards' track record, I am doubtful.
Affinity: 5
Melira Pod: 4
RUG Twin: 2
UR Twin: 1
UWR Twin: 1
Kiki Pod: 1
Scapeshift: 1
UW Control: 1
BG Rock: 1
UB Faeries: 1
Some of those 9-18 decks are pretty cool but overall I am very disappointed with the T16.
EDIT: I am, however, happy to see that none of the other combo decks made it to the T16, which was more or less what any reasonable person could predict. No Storm. No Infect. No Amulet. No Reanimator. None of those decks that people are constantly complaining about but don't actually put up results reliably, especially in big fields, and especially when people are ready for them. This suggests that Modern is, as a format, ready to handle decks like that.
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/gprich14/welcome#1
4 Melira Pod
2 Affinity
1 Kiki Pod
1 UR Twin
Hopefully the T16 looks a little better. Thank god that the day 2 metagame was diverse because that T8 on its own is a train wreck. Yes, T8's don't actually represent the full metagame, or its diversity, or even the best decks (especially given the size of this GP and all the variables that factor into a T8 qualification). But just analyzing the T8 on its own, oh man is it ugly.
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/gprich14/welcome#1
4 Melira Pod
2 Affinity
1 Kiki Pod
1 UR Twin
Hopefully the T16 looks a little better. Thank god that the day 2 metagame was diverse because that T8 on its own is a train wreck. Yes, T8's don't actually represent the full metagame, or its diversity, or even the best decks (especially given the size of this GP and all the variables that factor into a T8 qualification). But just analyzing the T8 on its own, oh man is it ugly.
As I wrote in the 8Rack thread, I'm legitimately shocked that Lapse or any of the deck's other pilots haven't been talking about that feature article yet.
True, but there are some that I like more than others!
Some buzz about the Haakon, Stromgald Scourge and Nameless Inversion engine, but it's unclear where it found a home. Also seeing some notes about Cosi's Trickster (for Merfolk, probably), and the Twin combo showing up in just about any deck that can pack it in.
I doubt this. So far, none of the Modern bans have been aimed at preventing cycles. They have been aimed at breaking up consistent, longrunning hegemonies. That's why something like Pod has so far dodged a ban, as with Twin, and why Wizards keeps aiming their bans at Jund.
Honestly, Storm should not do well at this event. Everyone is ready for it both in their sideboards and in their deck choice period. Twin is another matter; I expect to see at least 1 RUG Twin in the T8, and at least 2-3 Twin decks of some kind in the T16.
So that's the issue with the prediction I posted above; it shows that GP Richmond has way more people than expected, but doesn't give a lot of explanation.
I think you are totally right when suggesting that it's the "perfect storm" of all those things. On top of those you mentioned, I want to emphasize the probably impact of coverage. Wizards has really increase both the quality and quantity of Modern coverage in the last 6 or so months, which has undoubtedly made the format more popular. I don't think that coverage is necessarily any more or less important than any of those reasons, so I just want to add it to the mix.