Any thoughts of if any vehicles or Kaladesh cards will make a splash in modern? Any of the Gearhulks or something like Smuggler's Copter? They're already spiked but wondering if they have staying power.... any opinions are appreciated!
I think you are going to find that it is going to be much easier to get a good price on new Rare cards that find a place in modern. The wholesale box price has a lot of power over the resale market of a set while it is in print, which means that the resale value of the cards in that set, added together, will never be a lot more than that price (not sure what the margin of error is). Thus when there are cards that are quite expensive and harder to get the lower rarity cards have to go down. Mythics and increased print runs have a done a lot to drive down rare prices for this reason and the neo-expiditions will have an additional impact.
I bring that up in response to your question because I think that if you are buying to play and don't have a time pressure on when you need cards then it is almost always going to be wait and know what will be played in Modern than to try and predict playable rares in the long run. You can save some money that way, but for my money it is not worth the added cost of the duds you will get when you and the community are wrong.
Obviously everything I am saying about Rares is true for lower rarites as well.
I'm buying into Naya Nahiri Breach as we speak. Just bought a playset of promo for around 30.
I've said it before, but that has got to be one of the only foil promo cards I prefer to the original. It just looks so solid, and the foiling makes it pop. I was surprised they were so cheap when u got mine.
I post this in Modern prices becasue my collection is 95% Modern based.
So I got my first real job recently Ive finished up Uni and Ive found I really don't have time or the interest to play MTGO anymore.
I have something like 1.3k USD worth of cards and im debating on cashing out or just leaving it all there for when I may want to play again.
I know I will play MTG again but these days its more likely to be IRL commander with friends for the social aspect.
I doubt I will play much this year or the next and about the only thing I can see that might bring me back in is MM2017 if it exists.
I don't "need" the money now but money is money I guess the question is are my MTGO cards going to appreciate more then whatever I use the money to buy. If I where to play sooner then I expected I should be in a position to just drop 1k on the game. So it might be demoralizing to learn that snapcaster and co have doubled but it wont be the end of the world.
Thoughts?
I sold my MTGO collection that I'd had since Champions of Kamigawa in April of last year. I'd had plenty of periods where in I just stopped playing online for whatever reason, once for a couple of years, but after Modern started I gave it more attention. I was looking for deals on cards that would allow me to play archetypes that I could not yet play in meatspace, and even though I was not super aggressive with buying/selling/trading I'd amassed a decent collection, though I had no idea what the price a dealer might give me for the cards. The thing that really made me leave is that I didn't have the time to devote to playing competitive Modern (leagues had not come back yet), and even when I did it was never much of a draw for me. I play tested decks I had in meatspace a fair bit, but even then it felt like something I felt I should do rather than something I wanted to do. I didn't mind the interface as much as other folks, though my laptop is pretty old and the memory leaks were crippling at times. It was more the realization that without the social aspect the game was not as much of a draw. It felt like homework that I was doing so that I could go out to the shop, have fun playing Modern, and not get crushed entirely.
Though, if I'm honest, the thing that really really got me to sell it was the quote I got. I had been thinking about it so I got a quote from MTGO Traders just to see what it would be, and I was stunned. I thought it would be like maybe $600, and I wasn't sure if that was enough for me to not just come back to it like I had so many times, but (and I can't believe I forgot how much the quote was for) it was something like $3200. I read that email like 10 times thinking I'd read it wrong, and even printed it out because I knew my wife would never believe me. That was enough for me to sell out of an online game, that I played only sparingly, in a hot minute. I took something like $500 in trade credit from their brick and mortar paper card affiliate, but the rest was cash money that I was thrilled to put into family savings (I gave myself a few hundred $ to play with).
Here is what I'd say to you: I don't think that your collection, on the whole, is going to get devalued if you leave it. If you really don't need the money and you think you might spend it anyway if you sold your collection, then there is really no good reason to liquidate it. That is if you are confidant that you won't want to play much MTGO some time in the future. You can wait to decide that, too. If you have things like Fetches, Shocks, Snapcaster, Hierarch, and Confidant - cards that will be mainstays of the format and are not likely to get significantly cheaper, then your overall $ value is not going to be going down. If you think you might want to play again next summer then I would just mothball it and decide later.
... was to change my password to something very complex and meaningless - the kind of password that is extraordinarily hard to crack, but you would never use if you were playing because it is obnoxious to type all the time; record that password in a secure place that I would remember and know that I'd be able to find in a year, then just walked away from the account. My son had an unfortunate experience with another online game when he stopped playing for several months in which he came back only to find someone had cracked his convenience password that was shared with a couple other things, and just took all of the gear and stuff he'd acquired. It had been done long enough from the time he found out that it was impossible to try and recover his stuff, so when I made mine as impossible to crack as I could. That might be a bit paranoid of me, though.
Mishra's Bauble spike is more likely based from recent results than buy out.
Agreed.
One of the things about Bauble is that this is the second time it has spiked, and that means it is easier to spike higher and the price won't go back down as quickly. The reason for this is the first time it spikes all the players that pay attention see the price and go into their collection, dig out the copies they forgot about, and sell them. When the second spike comes around there are now a lot fewer copies in collections, because individuals sold them to dealers last spike, and it is these individual sales that keep spikes from being long lasting. Every spike after that means fewer and fewer copies not in the hands of dealers (or folks like me who maintain a collection), which means less competition, which means higher prices over all.
There is no universe in which Tamiyo stays at $30 dollars. No planeswalker (besides jace and Nahiri) is above $20 dollars. She is a 3 color planeswalker that needs to be in decks with lots of creatures. She will be $15ish or lower imho.
When I posted that the price I was seeing was about $21 where I was looking. I don't see her being more than $9 on either side of that price so if I am only buying 2 right now that is an acceptable risk. If she goes way down I will have lost a bit, but I also won't want more than two for brewing and EDH. If she hangs out at 30+ for some reason then she will probably hit my hard limit of what I will spend on a card, so I won't buy them anyway.
I am a Johnny who likes to play around with cute cards, and I almost always buy to play with very little eye towards flipping them.
The cards I am willing to get at current TCG Market price: Tamiyo, Field Researcher x2- I tend to hedge my bets on borderline PW and only buy 2 at the time of release if they interest me. Those are some SOLID activated abilities, and bant really should be the colors that could make the mana cost lest painful, but three colors is rough. I really like her with Oath of Nissa. Nibilis of Frost x4- 4 mana is expensive, but it is the kind of card I really like trying to break and at $0.58 it is almost a risk free purchase. Elder Deep-Fiend x4- This one I am eyeing more for Standard play, and might be a card I trade away if it peeks well enough, but the potential for value plays fills me with delight. At around $5 it is a bit of a risk, so this is probably my biggest gamble.
Cards I like but think they will drop a good % in the next few weeks
Sigarda's Aid x2- mostly for EDH.
I think Thalia could see play, but with all the value in EM's rare/mythic cards there is no way she is a $8 in three weeks. Testing could change things for me, but I can't see buying until it is below $5. I would jump in at $3 or less. In between those I would just have to gut call it.
What really hurts it for the kind of deck I would use her in (D&T, maybe Hatebears) is that it competes with some very strong cards at 3 cmc. With decks like that you are edging into "finisher" territory (4 cmc top out most of the time), and she doesn't do that.
I think the odds of a Hierarch reprint before next summer are small. It could be in Conspiracy 2, but it doesn't seem like the rarity you want for mana fixing in a draft set. Then again I am ***** at drafting, so I may be way off. Mechanically too...attacking with one creature seems like the opposite of what I see in draft much of the time.
Next summer I expect we will see another Modern Masters, but who knows if it will be in.
Eldtritch Evolution: What do you predict about this card's value? Will it go up or not?
I don't follow Standard, but I think that card is way over hyped for Modern.
1. It is a rare, and only the best rares stay in the $10 while in Standard.
2. It is a Sorcery. Decks that might run it have better options.
3. It exiles itself. That keeps combos or synergy from being unfair.
4. I think there is are a lot of tasty morsels at the top of the rarity for this set, and that will spread out value over more cards.
If TKS can barely stay above $5 then I just can't see EE doing any better.
EDH Commander with Geist of Saint Traft plays is. It's probably related to that by this deck being popular now.
Normally I might disagree with that, but the fact that it is a future shifted land changes that. In general cards with the future shifted frame are more likely to hold value over time due to that novelty alone. I, personally, think it is a terrible frame for several reasons but even I agree that lands with the future shifted frame look pretty stellar. Heck, of all of the FS lands (not counting Cairn) Nimbus Maze is one of the only ones I could even imagine as part of a traditional cycle, and it is still has pretty good odds of holding the value you put into it. I think that River of Tears is the other, and it is more in line with the power level we see in modern sets, but I think it would be harder to fit in to a block. Grove would make for a terrible standard metagame, and I loves me some Horizon Canopy, but I can't see Wizards ever allowing that level of card cycling in Standard.
Keep in mind I am talking about cycles in the traditional style of dual lands- 5 or 10 cards, all with the same mechanic. Dual lands are almost always printed that way in Standard.
Good lord, has it really been that long? It is still filed under "cards printed pretty recently" in my old brain.
Sigarda is pretty nutty in EDH, and she has a lot of new EDH player appeal since using her for a enchantress voltron deck is pretty straight forward. She may even have seen a bit of an uptick when the last Sigarda was spoiled due to it highlighting how great the first one was. I'm too lazy to check if that's true.
Edit: I double checked and it has actually been 4 years (05/04/2012), but that is still longer than it seems to me.
Nahiri did not last finally, right? Huge drop during the latest days. The weird thing is that there are some Standard lists(4c-rite company) that encorporate her, in addition to Jeskai and Kiki Chord.
One factor is that we are just about hitting peak supply to play ratio. From here on out less boxes will be opened, with much of the additional copies in the marketplace coming from redemption, all the while more and more will be bought by speculators and folks like me who put them in their modern tool box- effectively removing them from existence.
Clearly her hype spike having run it's course is also a factor, but the last one I picked up was traded at $27 in value, and I am comfortable paying that.
Linvala has a combination of being relatively uncommon even for a Mythic, and always popping up in Modern sideboard as the meta changes. If you look every time the price has gone up it never really comes back to it's old norm, so over time it has become pretty spendy for a card that is rarely ever more than a 2x in the 75.
I do think that whatever is driving her up to $50 is likely temporary and if I wanted to bother I would drop the couple I have and get them when they are back at $35 or less. I doubt they will be up for more than a few months.
So, define what a tempo deck is in regards to magic? Control? Archetype? These are just three that have driven me nuts in the past with people using the term and talking about very different things. What is apparent each time I do get this bee in my bonnet is that there is no established definition for many "slang" terms that the magic community has adopted. As much as I would like for there to be an official MTG dictionary that everyone goes by, or even to use the actual OED definition in some cases, people will usually just assign their own meaning and not change.
For my part a staple is a card that season after season, or perhaps cyclically, keeps being a relevant card in the most played decks. This is a useful definition for me because it is how I separate out cards that I have put in deck after deck into two binders because it would be a pain to repeatedly have to put them back in their set binders. I can't even begin to count the number of times I have put Serum Visions into a tier 1-1.5 deck, only to take them out when I need the cards to build another top deck. That is what defines a "staple" for me. The loss of Kitchen Finks from the format would probably change it little, but even if it isn't the most relevant card right now I am confidant it will be again. I know where to look for it when that day comes.
Nahiri does not fit this because there has not been enough time to judge it, however since I also put all of my Planeswalkers in those binder regardless (just easier to have them all in one place) it matters little.
Oh, and I (for one) do not think that Modern would look all that different if Goyf were banned (which should not happen). It would just be replaced by the next most efficient beater in the same way that Serum Visions replaced Ponder and Preodained when they were banned. that does not make Goyf any less of a staple as far as I'm concerned.
I've found eBay to be much easier than Puca. I don't need to maintain an active trade binder but can instead sell whatever card(s) I want at the time(s) I want and keep the PayPal money for when I see cards I want to buy. If you have impulse control you don't need to spend any more on eBay than you do trading through Puca, and can actually make a little without much effort at all.
To each their own, but I already have shelves of cards in binders, and would even if I weren't doing Puca. On Puca I am never low-balled and don't have to pay fees for trading. I do have to pay for shipping when I send cards, but I don't when I am receiving cards, so it balances out. It's not perfect, and it is a poor choice for people who want cards in less than a week, but it is very good.
If I need a card quickly I will use my store credit at Cape Fear Games (online) or just buy a card off eBay. I have sold stuff on eBay before and it is just not worth the hassle for me. I also hate the rating system because if you want to rate someone honestly below 5 stars you risk getting retaliatory low ratings regardless of whether it is warranted. It's just not for me.
I think you are going to find that it is going to be much easier to get a good price on new Rare cards that find a place in modern. The wholesale box price has a lot of power over the resale market of a set while it is in print, which means that the resale value of the cards in that set, added together, will never be a lot more than that price (not sure what the margin of error is). Thus when there are cards that are quite expensive and harder to get the lower rarity cards have to go down. Mythics and increased print runs have a done a lot to drive down rare prices for this reason and the neo-expiditions will have an additional impact.
I bring that up in response to your question because I think that if you are buying to play and don't have a time pressure on when you need cards then it is almost always going to be wait and know what will be played in Modern than to try and predict playable rares in the long run. You can save some money that way, but for my money it is not worth the added cost of the duds you will get when you and the community are wrong.
Obviously everything I am saying about Rares is true for lower rarites as well.
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I've said it before, but that has got to be one of the only foil promo cards I prefer to the original. It just looks so solid, and the foiling makes it pop. I was surprised they were so cheap when u got mine.
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I sold my MTGO collection that I'd had since Champions of Kamigawa in April of last year. I'd had plenty of periods where in I just stopped playing online for whatever reason, once for a couple of years, but after Modern started I gave it more attention. I was looking for deals on cards that would allow me to play archetypes that I could not yet play in meatspace, and even though I was not super aggressive with buying/selling/trading I'd amassed a decent collection, though I had no idea what the price a dealer might give me for the cards. The thing that really made me leave is that I didn't have the time to devote to playing competitive Modern (leagues had not come back yet), and even when I did it was never much of a draw for me. I play tested decks I had in meatspace a fair bit, but even then it felt like something I felt I should do rather than something I wanted to do. I didn't mind the interface as much as other folks, though my laptop is pretty old and the memory leaks were crippling at times. It was more the realization that without the social aspect the game was not as much of a draw. It felt like homework that I was doing so that I could go out to the shop, have fun playing Modern, and not get crushed entirely.
Though, if I'm honest, the thing that really really got me to sell it was the quote I got. I had been thinking about it so I got a quote from MTGO Traders just to see what it would be, and I was stunned. I thought it would be like maybe $600, and I wasn't sure if that was enough for me to not just come back to it like I had so many times, but (and I can't believe I forgot how much the quote was for) it was something like $3200. I read that email like 10 times thinking I'd read it wrong, and even printed it out because I knew my wife would never believe me. That was enough for me to sell out of an online game, that I played only sparingly, in a hot minute. I took something like $500 in trade credit from their brick and mortar paper card affiliate, but the rest was cash money that I was thrilled to put into family savings (I gave myself a few hundred $ to play with).
Here is what I'd say to you: I don't think that your collection, on the whole, is going to get devalued if you leave it. If you really don't need the money and you think you might spend it anyway if you sold your collection, then there is really no good reason to liquidate it. That is if you are confidant that you won't want to play much MTGO some time in the future. You can wait to decide that, too. If you have things like Fetches, Shocks, Snapcaster, Hierarch, and Confidant - cards that will be mainstays of the format and are not likely to get significantly cheaper, then your overall $ value is not going to be going down. If you think you might want to play again next summer then I would just mothball it and decide later.
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Agreed.
One of the things about Bauble is that this is the second time it has spiked, and that means it is easier to spike higher and the price won't go back down as quickly. The reason for this is the first time it spikes all the players that pay attention see the price and go into their collection, dig out the copies they forgot about, and sell them. When the second spike comes around there are now a lot fewer copies in collections, because individuals sold them to dealers last spike, and it is these individual sales that keep spikes from being long lasting. Every spike after that means fewer and fewer copies not in the hands of dealers (or folks like me who maintain a collection), which means less competition, which means higher prices over all.
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When I posted that the price I was seeing was about $21 where I was looking. I don't see her being more than $9 on either side of that price so if I am only buying 2 right now that is an acceptable risk. If she goes way down I will have lost a bit, but I also won't want more than two for brewing and EDH. If she hangs out at 30+ for some reason then she will probably hit my hard limit of what I will spend on a card, so I won't buy them anyway.
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The cards I am willing to get at current TCG Market price:
Tamiyo, Field Researcher x2- I tend to hedge my bets on borderline PW and only buy 2 at the time of release if they interest me. Those are some SOLID activated abilities, and bant really should be the colors that could make the mana cost lest painful, but three colors is rough. I really like her with Oath of Nissa.
Nibilis of Frost x4- 4 mana is expensive, but it is the kind of card I really like trying to break and at $0.58 it is almost a risk free purchase.
Elder Deep-Fiend x4- This one I am eyeing more for Standard play, and might be a card I trade away if it peeks well enough, but the potential for value plays fills me with delight. At around $5 it is a bit of a risk, so this is probably my biggest gamble.
Cards I like but think they will drop a good % in the next few weeks
Sigarda's Aid x2- mostly for EDH.
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What really hurts it for the kind of deck I would use her in (D&T, maybe Hatebears) is that it competes with some very strong cards at 3 cmc. With decks like that you are edging into "finisher" territory (4 cmc top out most of the time), and she doesn't do that.
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Next summer I expect we will see another Modern Masters, but who knows if it will be in.
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I don't follow Standard, but I think that card is way over hyped for Modern.
1. It is a rare, and only the best rares stay in the $10 while in Standard.
2. It is a Sorcery. Decks that might run it have better options.
3. It exiles itself. That keeps combos or synergy from being unfair.
4. I think there is are a lot of tasty morsels at the top of the rarity for this set, and that will spread out value over more cards.
If TKS can barely stay above $5 then I just can't see EE doing any better.
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Normally I might disagree with that, but the fact that it is a future shifted land changes that. In general cards with the future shifted frame are more likely to hold value over time due to that novelty alone. I, personally, think it is a terrible frame for several reasons but even I agree that lands with the future shifted frame look pretty stellar. Heck, of all of the FS lands (not counting Cairn) Nimbus Maze is one of the only ones I could even imagine as part of a traditional cycle, and it is still has pretty good odds of holding the value you put into it. I think that River of Tears is the other, and it is more in line with the power level we see in modern sets, but I think it would be harder to fit in to a block. Grove would make for a terrible standard metagame, and I loves me some Horizon Canopy, but I can't see Wizards ever allowing that level of card cycling in Standard.
Keep in mind I am talking about cycles in the traditional style of dual lands- 5 or 10 cards, all with the same mechanic. Dual lands are almost always printed that way in Standard.
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Good lord, has it really been that long? It is still filed under "cards printed pretty recently" in my old brain.
Sigarda is pretty nutty in EDH, and she has a lot of new EDH player appeal since using her for a enchantress voltron deck is pretty straight forward. She may even have seen a bit of an uptick when the last Sigarda was spoiled due to it highlighting how great the first one was. I'm too lazy to check if that's true.
Edit: I double checked and it has actually been 4 years (05/04/2012), but that is still longer than it seems to me.
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One factor is that we are just about hitting peak supply to play ratio. From here on out less boxes will be opened, with much of the additional copies in the marketplace coming from redemption, all the while more and more will be bought by speculators and folks like me who put them in their modern tool box- effectively removing them from existence.
Clearly her hype spike having run it's course is also a factor, but the last one I picked up was traded at $27 in value, and I am comfortable paying that.
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I do think that whatever is driving her up to $50 is likely temporary and if I wanted to bother I would drop the couple I have and get them when they are back at $35 or less. I doubt they will be up for more than a few months.
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So, define what a tempo deck is in regards to magic? Control? Archetype? These are just three that have driven me nuts in the past with people using the term and talking about very different things. What is apparent each time I do get this bee in my bonnet is that there is no established definition for many "slang" terms that the magic community has adopted. As much as I would like for there to be an official MTG dictionary that everyone goes by, or even to use the actual OED definition in some cases, people will usually just assign their own meaning and not change.
For my part a staple is a card that season after season, or perhaps cyclically, keeps being a relevant card in the most played decks. This is a useful definition for me because it is how I separate out cards that I have put in deck after deck into two binders because it would be a pain to repeatedly have to put them back in their set binders. I can't even begin to count the number of times I have put Serum Visions into a tier 1-1.5 deck, only to take them out when I need the cards to build another top deck. That is what defines a "staple" for me. The loss of Kitchen Finks from the format would probably change it little, but even if it isn't the most relevant card right now I am confidant it will be again. I know where to look for it when that day comes.
Nahiri does not fit this because there has not been enough time to judge it, however since I also put all of my Planeswalkers in those binder regardless (just easier to have them all in one place) it matters little.
Oh, and I (for one) do not think that Modern would look all that different if Goyf were banned (which should not happen). It would just be replaced by the next most efficient beater in the same way that Serum Visions replaced Ponder and Preodained when they were banned. that does not make Goyf any less of a staple as far as I'm concerned.
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To each their own, but I already have shelves of cards in binders, and would even if I weren't doing Puca. On Puca I am never low-balled and don't have to pay fees for trading. I do have to pay for shipping when I send cards, but I don't when I am receiving cards, so it balances out. It's not perfect, and it is a poor choice for people who want cards in less than a week, but it is very good.
If I need a card quickly I will use my store credit at Cape Fear Games (online) or just buy a card off eBay. I have sold stuff on eBay before and it is just not worth the hassle for me. I also hate the rating system because if you want to rate someone honestly below 5 stars you risk getting retaliatory low ratings regardless of whether it is warranted. It's just not for me.
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