After sitting on piles of Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta that have done nothing for 5 years, I have long since changed my "spec" criteria. I basically never buy into anything unless I expect to play it and want to avoid having to pay the "hype tax" later on.
Remember that WOTC may see us as players, Hasbro sees us as customers. And at the end of the day Hasbro wins.
I do the same thing w/r/t my buying, but it was easy to tell from the start that the Khans fetches weren't going to balloon in price. They've followed a similar trajectory as the RTR block shocks, which is what most people thought would happen.
I see. thanks for that. I guess it's ok to wait now for the prices to bottom a little more.
I feel you on the alternate art Planeswalkers from War of the Spark. I've been fiending for them as well and have a seller from Japan on FB for $240 for 1 of all 36 of them. I've been so close to pulling the trigger and probably will once I sell some of the cards that have spiked recently. I wish I had patience, as I'm not even really planning on using any of them any time soon.
Narset is a sideboard of the UW control in my sig, so in active use. The only thing preventing me from getting one is the thought that I might get her today at 20, then a few weeks later she is 6-7$. My money is not unlimited, and I plan to save as much as possible.
What are people's opinions on these.. ice fang coatl and yawgmoth, would their price increase or decrease weeks after release?
you only buy from SCG right? i wouldnt pick up ice-fang coatls at SCG prices (4x more than preordering them on card kingdom, and 2x more than tcgplayer) . maybe it sees some play in a snow deck that doesnt exist yet, but even if it does its just that 1 deck. i cant see any demand for the card in other formats.
as for yawgmoth...yeah id wait on that one. im very skeptical about it being able to command a 35 dollar price tag, even at mythic. unless it turns out its craaaazy good in commander or something i dont see it going UP while its in print. less sure on whether it will go down much and when that would happen. IMO its low risk to just wait
forgot to respond to the buy only from SCG part. Yeah, these days I just buy from them almost exclusively. The habit came from seeing a few people in our facebook group get scammed with fake cards after they bought from certain online stores in ebay.
Off-topic but this is the sorta thing i'm going to miss about this site. All the vets of this thread know that you buy from SCG exclusively and tailor responses accordingly. I'll miss that community feel to it.
I'm wondering how Horizons will affect prices of existing cards. It's hard to know until the spoilers, but even without reprinting existing cards, it can still affect their prices.
After all, some decks may find cards in it suit them slightly better than certain cards currently in the deck (even if they aren't strictly better, and other decks with that card would still use it), which could cause those cards to turn up for sale, some decks could be made more viable by new inclusions which could result in people buying other cards from those decks, some cards could see strictly better versions turn up and plummet in price, some decks could see enough new hate against them or decks that prey on them rising in the metagame or being created based on the new cards and become less popular with their pieces dropping in demand, and so on.
It's probably good that the shock-lands are currently in print, given the potential for Modern Horizons to increase the popularity of the format. Although of course, that could only make the pressure on the fetch-lands worse, so if that does happen, I hope they'd quickly reprint those in large numbers somehow outside of Standard.
My current operating assumption is that two things will happen.
1. Cards will be printed that will enable low-tier or currently non-existent decks and invalidate current decks. The cards from those invalidated decks which are used solely in those decks will drop in price. However, if this happens at all it will likely only happen to a very small number of decks, maybe not even more than 1 deck.
2. Cards will be printed that boost current strategies. The cards currently used by those strategies will rise in dollar value as their decks become more popular. This has a higher chance of happening to a larger number of decks.
And with either (or both) of those possibilities comes the inevitable meta-game shift which itself could create the same sort of price variations we currently see when the meta shifts.
So overall it is my opinion that buying current staples should be a net financial benefit, but be ready for some of those staples to fall in price. If you diversify the staples and their respective decks you should come out ahead.
There's also a possibility that if Horizons has the kind of impact that the first Modern Masters did, Modern will grow in popularity yet again, also raising the prices of most staples.
That's just what makes sense to me at the moment - certainly don't take it as gospel.
EDIT: And as you mention, there's also the possibility that they print "strictly better" cards. I wouldn't anticipate this happening very broadly. Maybe Counterspell pushes Mana Leak and Remand further out of the format, but those cards aren't widely played at the moment anyway. Similar to #1 above, I wouldn't anticipate this happening to a large portion of the current staples. Remember that it's designed as a draft set so there will be a lot of chaff that doesn't make its way into competitive Modern.
The fact that Mox Amber can't actually cast anything until the Legendary permanent is already on the battlefield makes it aggressively mediocre. It will be interesting to see if someone actually breaks it, but its reliance on things already being there is significantly more difficult than turning on Mox Opal. It's hype and speculation, and I'm guessing many people are going to regret buying them (just like the people who pre-ordered them for $30, only to see it fall to $7).
If White Weenie or Red Sligh type decks ever wanted ramp it would be OK there. But they don't. Maybe Elves, to cut things down by a turn?
$40/ea on TCGPlayer the lowest we can expect for Noble Hierarch?
I think so, at least in the short run and until it is reprinted again. It already bottomed out to about $30 during the UMA release, but started climbing back up 2 weeks after. I wouldn't sleep on these cards if I were you.
There's a whole bunch that I want to buy play sets of and am just waiting to get money from other cards to fund this (I'm looking at you extra sets of Goryo's Vengeance, Celestial Colonnade, Through the Breach, as well as some from IMA.)
Thank you. I'm sorry I missed the $30 bottom, but just pulled the trigger at $40/each for 4. Especially since no currently-Modern legal cards will be in Modern Horizons, I see these having nowhere to go but up for the foreseeable future.
No reprints whatsoever; I'll be readying my collection for sale some time this year if WotC is planning on giving Modern the Legacy treatment....
Literally printing a full Modern set of cards. I don't see any legacy aimed sets on the horizon.
Scroll to around the 16 minute mark in the video at this link. https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/announcing-modern-horizons-2019-02-28. The reprints are "new to Modern." The tag line on the screen says "New cards + reprints of cards not in Modern (minus basic lands)." So yes, a full set of Modern cards. Once it's released. Before then none of the cards in it are Modern legal.
I was on board with the idea of introducing new cards to Modern, but am a lot more apprehensive about it after the Gavin interview. In addition to the possibility of making existing cards and decks irrelevant or redundant (which is a huge bad thing in of itself, IMO), I fear we lack any of the meaningful safety valves in dealing with the broken nonsense likely to spout from this wave addition to the format. We already get some new linear deck broken every couple sets anyway, using just Standard cards. And given WOTC's general incompetence when it comes to Modern, I don't exactly trust them to "help us" by giving us anything meaningful without accidentally breaking things. This is a dev team that, just a few weeks ago, said with a straight face they believe UWx control decks are the next best deck in Modern after KCI. So if this is the same dev team in charge of making these hypothetical new cards, I don't have high hopes for anything that boosts reactive/control/interactive decks whatsoever.
I don't have any "evidence" to refute anything you said, since it's all speculation. But I'd speculate in a slightly different, more optimistic way.
You say that Modern lacks the safety valves to deal with what may be introduced to Modern through non-Standard releases. What's to say the safety valves themselves won't be part of those releases?
You also say that they have a poor track record of releasing broken things into Modern. However, that has always been through the context of Standard. They have never in the history of the format released a card into Modern that wasn't first designed for limited or Standard. Treasure Cruise and Dig were perfectly fine in their Standard format, for instance.
I can't necessarily disagree with you since we have no idea one way or another. But I think it's equally likely that the positives happen as the negatives.
oh my word I just saw the price of Surgical Extraction. I've had my playset for years now so hadn't paid much attention. $55 for that card is ridiculous.
EDIT: That's the CardKingdom price shown on mtgtop8. I failed to look one line down at the TCGPlayer price of $43. Still insane, though.
Other than trading with free bots, I'm stumped as to how I go about searching for/acquiring the remaining cards I need. I know that's veering off-topic, but if anyone would be so kind as to post/PM me a link for a resource where I can learn how to do that it'd be much appreciated.
I've always felt https://www.cardhoarder.com/ was very reasonable. Sign up for an account, link your MTGO account, buy online, and the bot will trade with you on MTGO. I've never needed something they didn't have.
There are many other bots you can purchase from, and others are good. You may be able to find some better prices, but I've always valued the convenience of cardhoarder over the small savings from finding the perfect deal.
I sold my MTGO collection the night before BBE and JTMS were unbanned. I figured that was the highest because I'd be selling into unrealized unban hopes. I sold for $2,300. While the collection topped out at $2,500 after the unbans, it's now worth $1,095. Glad I moved when I did.
Thank you both for the replies. Interesting topic and I'll start paying a lot closer attention. I think 2-3 weeks may still be correct for something like Back to Basics (fringe play in low-played formats or 1-of in EDH) but maybe not for Noble Hierarch (multi-format appeal as a 4-of). I'll look at my pickup list accordingly.
First time I've seen the ebay prices on singles from a set actually become cheaper on pre-release on ebay than they were listed on TCGPlayer. Given the boxes are going up in price I'd say get the darn singles! =p
The sweet spot is usually 2-3 weeks after release. I think it still can go down once singles really hit the market. There are too many money cards in this set for rares to keep their prices. Box prices are probably just seeing a natural correction for overall current value combined with a fear that a huge demand will dry up supplies more quickly than anticipated.
I think the market might go through some adjustment given what I've heard of attendance at the last few GPs. I didn't think that wizards would double dip into the pain train twice and that last year would have been the height of drama, but the second wave of animosity from the ultimate masters is palpable at my locals. Two folks just said they had enough of this and sold out of their collections. These are modern players mind you and not standard players.
Wait, what? Do you mean to say that players are reacting to a set that hasn't been fully spoiled and for which we don't know about print run amounts in a Chronicles manner?
If so, this is probably a non-issue and just a few crazies overreacting.
I'm not saying modern is collapsing, I'm saying that there are people who are offloading collections of format relevant cards due to the masters set for reasons that I didn't think about until now.
If 10% of all people playing modern gave up magic and sold out, that would have even more impact than stores offloading singles to put capital into ultimate masters. Also, I cant emphasize enough that locals are not all the same and that locals are not comparable to GPs. The over all attendance of GPs is down and only marginally recovered from two years ago.
Channel fireball tried to make it sound like things are going super up, but the reality is that the bar for improvement in attendance got set pretty low.
That means demand should still be lower on the entire market than two years ago. It also could mean less packs opened and therefore lower supply.
Less drama, more brain power.
Without any external forces driving behavior, on any given day it is probably true that for every person who sells out of their collection, someone else buys in. If you argue that ultimate masters is an external force driving negative behavior, fine. I have no idea where you're finding anything even approaching compelling evidence for this, but let's assume it's true. If that's the case, it may increase the people selling and depress the people buying. But it would have to be such a large disaster that the evidence is clear to everybody (it's not) to even come close to a number like 10%.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
1. Cards will be printed that will enable low-tier or currently non-existent decks and invalidate current decks. The cards from those invalidated decks which are used solely in those decks will drop in price. However, if this happens at all it will likely only happen to a very small number of decks, maybe not even more than 1 deck.
2. Cards will be printed that boost current strategies. The cards currently used by those strategies will rise in dollar value as their decks become more popular. This has a higher chance of happening to a larger number of decks.
And with either (or both) of those possibilities comes the inevitable meta-game shift which itself could create the same sort of price variations we currently see when the meta shifts.
So overall it is my opinion that buying current staples should be a net financial benefit, but be ready for some of those staples to fall in price. If you diversify the staples and their respective decks you should come out ahead.
There's also a possibility that if Horizons has the kind of impact that the first Modern Masters did, Modern will grow in popularity yet again, also raising the prices of most staples.
That's just what makes sense to me at the moment - certainly don't take it as gospel.
EDIT: And as you mention, there's also the possibility that they print "strictly better" cards. I wouldn't anticipate this happening very broadly. Maybe Counterspell pushes Mana Leak and Remand further out of the format, but those cards aren't widely played at the moment anyway. Similar to #1 above, I wouldn't anticipate this happening to a large portion of the current staples. Remember that it's designed as a draft set so there will be a lot of chaff that doesn't make its way into competitive Modern.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
You say that Modern lacks the safety valves to deal with what may be introduced to Modern through non-Standard releases. What's to say the safety valves themselves won't be part of those releases?
You also say that they have a poor track record of releasing broken things into Modern. However, that has always been through the context of Standard. They have never in the history of the format released a card into Modern that wasn't first designed for limited or Standard. Treasure Cruise and Dig were perfectly fine in their Standard format, for instance.
I can't necessarily disagree with you since we have no idea one way or another. But I think it's equally likely that the positives happen as the negatives.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
EDIT: That's the CardKingdom price shown on mtgtop8. I failed to look one line down at the TCGPlayer price of $43. Still insane, though.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
There are many other bots you can purchase from, and others are good. You may be able to find some better prices, but I've always valued the convenience of cardhoarder over the small savings from finding the perfect deal.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
4 Vengevine
4 Back to Basics
4 Disrupting Shoal
2 Runed Halo
4 Through the Breach
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Goryo's Vengeance
1 Leovold, Emissary of Trest
2 Gaddock Teeg
4 Ancient Tomb
2 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero