It's sometimes an issue (as is/was Snap + any blue spell), but if you're blood mooning, you're probably winning anyway. I play RUG and I still pack my blood moons and MD DTT. If it really is an issue, I think Blood Moon is the card to go, not DTT.
Interesting. I'm also on the DTT bandwagon now, though in RUG w/ Goyf instead of YP, and Ooze to fight other Cruise/DTT decks. I like 4-5 DTT + Cruise though, but RUG is positioned a little more midrangey than UR, so there might not be any real disagreement.
Edit: I also 100% agree that Swiftspear and Cruise go together, while Snapcaster and DTT go together. There are two different builds here (more once you start adding a 3rd color) and those are the defining features of each build.
Based on the power level of the card and the percentages shown what do you think is the right # to play?
4. Card's busted and you want to draw one nearly every game while drawing a second isn't the end of the world. Casting one makes it not so hard to cast the second anyway one because you get a bunch of spells to fill the yard or lands. There are some matchups where I'd side 1-2 out though - mostly vs. fast combo and fast aggro. I'm even looking for room for 4 in RUG Delver w/ Goyfs, probably cutting 1-2 Snapcasters since Cruise fills a similar role but is much more powerful. NB: my creature base is 4 Delver, 4 Goyf, 3 YP, 2-4 Snapcaster, so extra creatures are even more cuttable.
I was about to say that in large simulations, I was getting consistently smaller numbers than you, but you assumed we were on the draw and I assumed we were on the play, which accounts for it.
Hey Guys here is some quick math in regards to Treasure cruise.
I figure we won't cast it before T4 and they are not good in multiples.
% Chance to draw exactly 1 by T4
4: 41%
3: 38%
2: 30%
1: 18%
% Chance to Draw More than 1 by T4
4: 15%
3: 8%
2: 3%
1: 0%
My Gut says the right # is 2-3 but this obviously depends on the deck
Edit: there was a mistake in my code, now that it's fixed and you fixed the fat-fingered mistake, I'd say they're consistent given the error in monte carlo simulations.
Here are the right probabilities, assuming you're on the play and didn't mulligan (i.e. in 10 cards):
I computed them using simulations in R, code below. These are only approximate since they're based on Monte Carlo simulations, but you can trust the first decimal place and the second is likely very close.
n <- 100000
k <- 4
hand <- 7+3
out <- matrix(0, nrow=k, ncol=4)
colnames(out) <- paste("drawn=", 1:4, sep="")
rownames(out) <- paste("playing=", 1:k, sep="")
for(i in 1:k){
deck <- c(rep(1,i), rep(0,60-i))
n1 <- 0
n2 <- 0
n3 <- 0
n4 <- 0
for(j in 1:n){
sam <- sum(sample(deck, hand))
n1 <- n1 + 1*(sam==1)
n2 <- n2 + 1*(sam==2)
n3 <- n3 + 1*(sam==3)
n4 <- n4 + 1*(sam==4)
}
out[i,] <- c(n1,n2,n3,n4)/n
}
out
Very straightforward but ask questions if you have them.
Why only 3 pyromancers? The list seems a little threat-light, though I guess with cruise you're much more able to find the burn to finish them off late.
The debate about whether Goblin Guide is a tempo card notwithstanding, I have extensively tested the little guy in UR and RUG Delver, and he does work well in a certain sort of tempo game plan: play an early threat, then protect it and disrupt your opponent's game plan with countermagic and removal. This plan is fantastic against some decks - Tron, Storm, Scapeshift, etc, and not surprisingly Goblin Guide is exactly what you want in those matchups. You need early aggression because at some point you'll no longer be able to tap out on your own turn for fear of just losing on the spot. Against the grindy portion of the metagame, GG is awful though because it doesn't play the aggro-control role at all. Like Delver, guide is just an aggro card. Unlike Delver, guide requires a lot of work to keep the damage flowing. And the card disadvantage just buries the little guy because the game will go long (in these matchups) and you have to at least not get buried in card advantage. I wouldn't play Guide unless the metagame shifts away from Jund/Junk/BG/Pod/RUGTwin and towards Tron/Storm/Scapeshift/URTwin/combo.
As far as the semantics, I'd say that Guide is a fine though not spectacular tempo card (early aggression backed by countermagic), but an awful aggro/control card (versatile threats and answers that allow you to play either the aggro or control role exceptionally well, and in fact switch roles on a dime). These two strategies often get confused, but they are distinct (though the names I'm using for them aren't necessarily the best since everyone uses "tempo" to refer to both strategies). In these terms then, the problem with Goblin Guide is that Delver is forced to play somewhere between a tempo and an aggro/control plan because of the metagame, and Guide is only decent at one end of the continuum and awful at the other end.
"you can't beat every hand they have, so don't sacrifice win % vs the hands you can beat in a futile attempt to beat their best hands."
this helps me a lot. thanks. Sadly goyfs aren't an option. But Lavamancers will be maindecked, as it is good vs my meta. TheFakeSlimShady argued that electrickery is better than electrolyze in the current modern environment. I can definitely see the upside to it, and I have no plans to play electrolyze in my 75. What do you think?
Your welcome!
As a SB card, Electrickery is probably better since it just wrecks token strategies and decks with a lot of x/1's while Electrolyze is slower and merely very good. As a MD card, Electrolyze is clearly the choice since Electrickery does actual nothing against large swaths of the metagame while Electrolyze can always go to the dome while cantriping or combine with a bolt to 1 for 1 (or rather 2 for 2) a 4-5 toughness creature. That being said, you have to ask yourself why you're playing Electrickery in the SB instead of Izzet Staticaster. Electrickery is cheaper, flips Delver, and can be flashed back with Snapcaster but Staticaster often kills the same things the turn you cast it and demands a removal spell, otherwise you effectively lock them out of the game. Personally, I've played 1-2 Electrolyze MD and 1 Staticaster SB in all or almost all of the UR and RUG Delver lists I've played. I haven't tried Electrickery, but I have a hard time believing it's better than Staticaster.
Thanks alot for advice, but how do you play that matchup. The only way I can see myself playing aggressively is if I go T1 delver on the play. Otherwise I think its better to try to answer affinitys threats. Even on the play holding spell snare mana up turn one is reasonable, as the t1 ravager happens from time to time. This will probably improve once I get 2 grim lavamancers main deck.
If you really want to beat Affinity game 1, Lavamancers MD do help a lot, but so does Tarmogoyf. The problem with Young Pyro is that it's hard to get damage through without a lot of work to get through random Memnites and manlands, where Goyf powers through whatever and often can indefinitely block an Ensouled Darksteel Citadel - just hope they don't draw a burn spell. Generally, you need to find a source of damage and keep pushing it through because if you don't kill your opponent quickly enough, there's enough topdecks and manlands in affinity that they'll find a way to push through the damage - especially if they're on the Galvanic/Shrapnel blast plan. So the first opportunity you have to stick a threat with relevant mana up, do it. I wouldn't worry about holding mana up on turn 1 in case they have a turn 1 plating - you can't beat every hand they have, so don't sacrifice win % vs the hands you can beat in a futile attempt to beat their best hands. If they nut draw you, take your loss and console yourself with the knowledge that you almost certainly lose anyway if you try to play around it. Then if they don't nut draw you, you have a decent shot to pull it out.
Edit: Also, vs Ravager, try to hold up Bolt mana all the time even if you don't have it. Most affinity players won't try to go all in with Ravager when you do that because they fear the bolt, so that can buy you tons of time. Note that most players are bad here - sometimes, they should just go all in and force you to have the bolt or die. When you do this game 1 and your opponent discovers that you don't have the bolt somehow, then game 2/3 they may be more likely to go all in, but that can work to your advantage since you're often more likely to have the removal spell post board.
Any thoughts on the merfolk matchup. They seem to tempo the tempo deck out easily...
Similar to Affinity except your counterspells are better and the obvious: normal removal spells instead of artifact destruction. Also, they're slower. I haven't played the matchup much, but it feels about 50/50 game 1. Post board you can bring in so much removal though that they're in trouble. Lavamancers and Electrolyzes are gold.
You beat Affinity mostly via an unanswered Grim Lavamancer, which will slowly wipe his board, Electrolyze and Forked Bolt are also stellar in this match up. I don't think Ancient Grudge is the way to go here because the extra Shockland will hurt your other match ups, and fetching for a Shockland just to maybe play Ancient Grudge that you may or may not draw is not where you want to be. Vandal Blast, Shattering Spree, and Shatterstorm are all cards that are powerful in the match up. I also think I prefer Izzet Staticaster over Electrickery because it's repeatable.
100% agree about Lavamancer, Electrolyze, and Forked Bolt. Disagree about Grudge. One Breeding Pool is nearly free, and Grudge is the best SB card vs affinity that you'd also want to board in other matchups. Shatterstorm is the actual best. I've had very poor results with both Vandalblast and Shattering Spree. Getting RR early enough to make Spree better than Grudge is often very painful, whereas you can often take your time getting that Breeding Pool before you flash back Grudge since the first half slowed them down. Yes Snapcaster + Spree can be sweet, but then you have to draw Snap and have 4 mana, which is hard to do on time vs Affinity. Vandalblast just never gets overloaded on time. 5 mana is a million mana vs. affinity. Finally, both Vandalblast and Shattering Spree are sorceries. Cranial Plating, Arcbound Ravager, and sometimes Ensoul Artifact have a much better chance of getting you for a large chunk of damage if you have either of those cards instead of Ancient Grudge.
I also recommend trying an Engineered Explosives vs. affinity - it also comes in vs. Bogles and tokens, which is nice for the flexibility.
Do you have any tips how to play against UWR control. Matchup feels unbeatable since their whole deck is either removal or bigger threats than ours and they stabilize very fast.
Snapcaster Mage/Young Pyro are you best threats since they will generate value which is vital as most of their removal is 1 for 1. Pyro is the only early threat worth protecting.
Essentially, stay aggressive and try to make them play into the tempo plan but if it becomes apparent that won't happen you need to settle in for a long game and go with the value plan.
SB matters a lot since you get to bring in haymakers like Batterskull, Keranos, Blood Moon etc.
I agree with all of this but I'll add that if the size of their threats is really a problem, this is a spot where adding Tarmogoyf to the deck can really help out. But honestly, UW/UWR control just seems like a bad matchup no matter what you do.
anyone here using Delay ? I'm thinking of using it in replacement for Remand
There's some discussion of it upthread, but I think the consensus is that remand is better. If you're looking to cut a remand or two, try Deprive. It has some fans (including me), but others don't like it. If you want to learn more, search the thread.
With these new fetchlands confirmed should we consider adding different colors to this deck?
All 3 possible splashes have their own threads in completely different parts of the forum. It's worht discussing the option of merging them. Temur Delver Jeskai Delver Grixis Delver
RUG Already has perfect mana. Grixis gains Polluted Delta and Jeskai gains Flooded Strand. Right now I think Jeskai with both pyromancer and geist is good, the geists really help out against the removal-heavy decks that I have trouble against with straight UR and I don't think UR has another threat on the same power level as what the splashes offer.
I don't think it changes what Delver does at all. The problem with Geist was never really the mana. Geist is a bit slow and forces you to do a lot of work to make sure the guy can keep getting through - he's better in a more controlling shell, like UWR Geist. Grixis has fantastic mana, but I'm not sure that changes much - the barrier has always been what do you gain from black? There's an argument for maybe running a Wooded Foothills in Temur (RUG), but I'm skeptical.
It does change the metagame though. Jund will have better mana that possibly deals them more damage but is also more blood moon proof. Grixis and Esper control strategies might see some play, and UBx Faeries as well. In addition, there might be a new BGx threat - Sultai (BUG). Imagine the BG shell that forms the base of both Jund and Junk, but with Snapcaster Mage and Cryptic Command backup. I don't know if it's good, but the mana was an issue in the past.
What implications does all of this have for Delver? Hard to say. Based on the stuff I just listed, it seems like we'll get a slower, more midrange / control metagame - which seems bad for Delver. But if that happens, combo and tron might just rise up and crush the new metagame, which is good for Delver. It's hard to say how it will settle down. But I'm glad we get a modern PT to let the pros do something with the new fetches!
Edit: backing off my stance on Grixis Delver a bit - Bitterblossom and Dark Confidant are both excellent cards, and so is frickin' Terminate. Kill your opponent's Goyf's dead. I'm still a little skeptical mainly because the creatures you get from black don't help the Lingering Souls or Electrolyze problems much, though you do get to play discard. Worth exploring.
Edit 2: one interesting implication in UR Delver is you can choose the second U/x fetchland to maximize your opponent's confusion. Are there a ton of people playing Flooded Strand? Use that instead of Misty Rainforest.
Looks like a typo
Edit: I also 100% agree that Swiftspear and Cruise go together, while Snapcaster and DTT go together. There are two different builds here (more once you start adding a 3rd color) and those are the defining features of each build.
4. Card's busted and you want to draw one nearly every game while drawing a second isn't the end of the world. Casting one makes it not so hard to cast the second anyway one because you get a bunch of spells to fill the yard or lands. There are some matchups where I'd side 1-2 out though - mostly vs. fast combo and fast aggro. I'm even looking for room for 4 in RUG Delver w/ Goyfs, probably cutting 1-2 Snapcasters since Cruise fills a similar role but is much more powerful. NB: my creature base is 4 Delver, 4 Goyf, 3 YP, 2-4 Snapcaster, so extra creatures are even more cuttable.
See my edit first.
I was about to say that in large simulations, I was getting consistently smaller numbers than you, but you assumed we were on the draw and I assumed we were on the play, which accounts for it.
Edit: there was a mistake in my code, now that it's fixed and you fixed the fat-fingered mistake, I'd say they're consistent given the error in monte carlo simulations.
Here are the right probabilities, assuming you're on the play and didn't mulligan (i.e. in 10 cards):
aaaaa drawn=1 drawn=2 drawn=3 drawn=4
play=1 0.16731 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
play=2 0.28086 0.02564 0.00000 0.00000
play=3 0.35807 0.06519 0.00343 0.00000
play=4 0.40302 0.11238 0.01236 0.00054
I computed them using simulations in R, code below. These are only approximate since they're based on Monte Carlo simulations, but you can trust the first decimal place and the second is likely very close.
n <- 100000
k <- 4
hand <- 7+3
out <- matrix(0, nrow=k, ncol=4)
colnames(out) <- paste("drawn=", 1:4, sep="")
rownames(out) <- paste("playing=", 1:k, sep="")
for(i in 1:k){
deck <- c(rep(1,i), rep(0,60-i))
n1 <- 0
n2 <- 0
n3 <- 0
n4 <- 0
for(j in 1:n){
sam <- sum(sample(deck, hand))
n1 <- n1 + 1*(sam==1)
n2 <- n2 + 1*(sam==2)
n3 <- n3 + 1*(sam==3)
n4 <- n4 + 1*(sam==4)
}
out[i,] <- c(n1,n2,n3,n4)/n
}
out
Why only 3 pyromancers? The list seems a little threat-light, though I guess with cruise you're much more able to find the burn to finish them off late.
As far as the semantics, I'd say that Guide is a fine though not spectacular tempo card (early aggression backed by countermagic), but an awful aggro/control card (versatile threats and answers that allow you to play either the aggro or control role exceptionally well, and in fact switch roles on a dime). These two strategies often get confused, but they are distinct (though the names I'm using for them aren't necessarily the best since everyone uses "tempo" to refer to both strategies). In these terms then, the problem with Goblin Guide is that Delver is forced to play somewhere between a tempo and an aggro/control plan because of the metagame, and Guide is only decent at one end of the continuum and awful at the other end.
Your welcome!
As a SB card, Electrickery is probably better since it just wrecks token strategies and decks with a lot of x/1's while Electrolyze is slower and merely very good. As a MD card, Electrolyze is clearly the choice since Electrickery does actual nothing against large swaths of the metagame while Electrolyze can always go to the dome while cantriping or combine with a bolt to 1 for 1 (or rather 2 for 2) a 4-5 toughness creature. That being said, you have to ask yourself why you're playing Electrickery in the SB instead of Izzet Staticaster. Electrickery is cheaper, flips Delver, and can be flashed back with Snapcaster but Staticaster often kills the same things the turn you cast it and demands a removal spell, otherwise you effectively lock them out of the game. Personally, I've played 1-2 Electrolyze MD and 1 Staticaster SB in all or almost all of the UR and RUG Delver lists I've played. I haven't tried Electrickery, but I have a hard time believing it's better than Staticaster.
If you really want to beat Affinity game 1, Lavamancers MD do help a lot, but so does Tarmogoyf. The problem with Young Pyro is that it's hard to get damage through without a lot of work to get through random Memnites and manlands, where Goyf powers through whatever and often can indefinitely block an Ensouled Darksteel Citadel - just hope they don't draw a burn spell. Generally, you need to find a source of damage and keep pushing it through because if you don't kill your opponent quickly enough, there's enough topdecks and manlands in affinity that they'll find a way to push through the damage - especially if they're on the Galvanic/Shrapnel blast plan. So the first opportunity you have to stick a threat with relevant mana up, do it. I wouldn't worry about holding mana up on turn 1 in case they have a turn 1 plating - you can't beat every hand they have, so don't sacrifice win % vs the hands you can beat in a futile attempt to beat their best hands. If they nut draw you, take your loss and console yourself with the knowledge that you almost certainly lose anyway if you try to play around it. Then if they don't nut draw you, you have a decent shot to pull it out.
Edit: Also, vs Ravager, try to hold up Bolt mana all the time even if you don't have it. Most affinity players won't try to go all in with Ravager when you do that because they fear the bolt, so that can buy you tons of time. Note that most players are bad here - sometimes, they should just go all in and force you to have the bolt or die. When you do this game 1 and your opponent discovers that you don't have the bolt somehow, then game 2/3 they may be more likely to go all in, but that can work to your advantage since you're often more likely to have the removal spell post board.
Similar to Affinity except your counterspells are better and the obvious: normal removal spells instead of artifact destruction. Also, they're slower. I haven't played the matchup much, but it feels about 50/50 game 1. Post board you can bring in so much removal though that they're in trouble. Lavamancers and Electrolyzes are gold.
100% agree about Lavamancer, Electrolyze, and Forked Bolt. Disagree about Grudge. One Breeding Pool is nearly free, and Grudge is the best SB card vs affinity that you'd also want to board in other matchups. Shatterstorm is the actual best. I've had very poor results with both Vandalblast and Shattering Spree. Getting RR early enough to make Spree better than Grudge is often very painful, whereas you can often take your time getting that Breeding Pool before you flash back Grudge since the first half slowed them down. Yes Snapcaster + Spree can be sweet, but then you have to draw Snap and have 4 mana, which is hard to do on time vs Affinity. Vandalblast just never gets overloaded on time. 5 mana is a million mana vs. affinity. Finally, both Vandalblast and Shattering Spree are sorceries. Cranial Plating, Arcbound Ravager, and sometimes Ensoul Artifact have a much better chance of getting you for a large chunk of damage if you have either of those cards instead of Ancient Grudge.
I also recommend trying an Engineered Explosives vs. affinity - it also comes in vs. Bogles and tokens, which is nice for the flexibility.
I agree with all of this but I'll add that if the size of their threats is really a problem, this is a spot where adding Tarmogoyf to the deck can really help out. But honestly, UW/UWR control just seems like a bad matchup no matter what you do.
There's some discussion of it upthread, but I think the consensus is that remand is better. If you're looking to cut a remand or two, try Deprive. It has some fans (including me), but others don't like it. If you want to learn more, search the thread.
I don't think it changes what Delver does at all. The problem with Geist was never really the mana. Geist is a bit slow and forces you to do a lot of work to make sure the guy can keep getting through - he's better in a more controlling shell, like UWR Geist. Grixis has fantastic mana, but I'm not sure that changes much - the barrier has always been what do you gain from black? There's an argument for maybe running a Wooded Foothills in Temur (RUG), but I'm skeptical.
It does change the metagame though. Jund will have better mana that possibly deals them more damage but is also more blood moon proof. Grixis and Esper control strategies might see some play, and UBx Faeries as well. In addition, there might be a new BGx threat - Sultai (BUG). Imagine the BG shell that forms the base of both Jund and Junk, but with Snapcaster Mage and Cryptic Command backup. I don't know if it's good, but the mana was an issue in the past.
What implications does all of this have for Delver? Hard to say. Based on the stuff I just listed, it seems like we'll get a slower, more midrange / control metagame - which seems bad for Delver. But if that happens, combo and tron might just rise up and crush the new metagame, which is good for Delver. It's hard to say how it will settle down. But I'm glad we get a modern PT to let the pros do something with the new fetches!
Edit: backing off my stance on Grixis Delver a bit - Bitterblossom and Dark Confidant are both excellent cards, and so is frickin' Terminate. Kill your opponent's Goyf's dead. I'm still a little skeptical mainly because the creatures you get from black don't help the Lingering Souls or Electrolyze problems much, though you do get to play discard. Worth exploring.
Edit 2: one interesting implication in UR Delver is you can choose the second U/x fetchland to maximize your opponent's confusion. Are there a ton of people playing Flooded Strand? Use that instead of Misty Rainforest.