Zoo promoted from Developing Competitive / Deck Creation to Tier 2
Azban promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1
Suicide Zoo, Jeskai Control and merfolk dropped from Tier 1 to Tier 2
Elves, Kiki chord dropped from Tier 2 to Developing Competitive
---------------------------------------------------------------- Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Overview
The MTGS Modern Forums are a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Tier 1" subforum reflects the Tier 1 decks of the metagame. These are the most-played decks across the format, the decks that you must be able to beat if you are to seriously compete in Modern tournaments.
The subforum is updated on the first Monday of every month with data from the previous 2 months. Data includes all publicly published MTGO dailies, all paper events of any size, the T8 and T16 of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events, and the day 2 metagames of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Tier 1" were decided on by staff and forum users and reflect best practices in statistical analysis. The criteria were decided on in August and September of 2013, and updated a number of times throughout 2014. They were most recently revisited and revised in January 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------- Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Criteria
TIER 1 POINT CUTOFF: 9 (updated 6/12) TIER 2 POINT CUTOFF: 3 (updated 6/12)
Tournament finishes for all decks in the format are tracked in the Modern Nexus Metagame Spreadsheet. All decks receive 0-3 points in four separate categories, and then receive a total score based on the sum of their points. The decks with the highest points are considered Tier 1. The categories, and the source(s) for that data, are listed below:
Paper: All publicly published paper events posted to over a dozen sites like TCDecks, happymtg, mtgtop8, mtgdecks.net, and many more. All results are aggregated in our spreadsheet.
Major Paper T8/T16: All T8 and T16 decks from Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Major Paper Day 2 metagames: All day 2 metagames from Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Points are awarded in each category based on a 95% confidence interval for average prevalences and how far outside of that confidence interval a deck’s prevalence falls. This gives us a statistically supported way of determining whether a deck is overperforming or underperforming, in a way that is transparent to all users and more “objective” than just grading decks based on personal preference. As an added bonus, the cutoffs are dynamic based on the current metagame, instead of semi-arbitrary cutoffs that are relics of older metagames no longer applicable today. So in one update, the 95% confidence interval for average prevalence on MTGO might be .95%-1.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.5%. But in another update, that interval might be 1%-1.5% and the standard deviation could be 2%. This higher variance metagame would naturally have different cutoffs than the lower variance one.
Finally, after all decks have been awarded a point total, we take the average of that point total and then set a Tier 1 cutoff at 2 standard deviations over that average total. Any deck with points that exceed that cutoff is considered tier 1. So if the average score of all decks is 4 points with a standard deviation of 1, the Tier 1 cutoff will be set at 6 (4 + 1 + 1) for that update.
Here is the system that is used to award points to decks in the four different categories:
MTGO
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
Paper
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
GP/PT T8/T16
1 point: Prevalence > average weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
GP/PT Day 2
1 point: Prevalence > average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev prevalence
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions about the system, feel free to discuss them in the Modern Metagame Thread in Modern General.
---------------------------------------------------------------- Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Current Decks (5/1/2016 - 5/31/2016)
The following decks represent the current Tier 1 of Modern. Their point totals are listed next to them, along with how many points they earned in each individual category. For instance, "Affinity: 10 (3,2,2,2)" can be read as Affinity has 10 points total, with 3 for its MTGO performances, 2 for its Paper performances, 2 for its GP T8/T16 performances, and 2 for its GP Day 2 performances.
Criteria, selection, and decks
SPREADSHEET: January 2016 - December 2016
FORUM LAST UPDATED: 10/24/2016
FORUM NEXT UPDATED: 11/14/2016
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHANGELOG: UPDATED 10/24/2016
- Zoo promoted from Developing Competitive / Deck Creation to Tier 2
- Azban promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1
- Suicide Zoo, Jeskai Control and merfolk dropped from Tier 1 to Tier 2
- Elves, Kiki chord dropped from Tier 2 to Developing Competitive
----------------------------------------------------------------Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Overview
The MTGS Modern Forums are a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Tier 1" subforum reflects the Tier 1 decks of the metagame. These are the most-played decks across the format, the decks that you must be able to beat if you are to seriously compete in Modern tournaments.
The subforum is updated on the first Monday of every month with data from the previous 2 months. Data includes all publicly published MTGO dailies, all paper events of any size, the T8 and T16 of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events, and the day 2 metagames of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Tier 1" were decided on by staff and forum users and reflect best practices in statistical analysis. The criteria were decided on in August and September of 2013, and updated a number of times throughout 2014. They were most recently revisited and revised in January 2015.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Criteria
TIER 1 POINT CUTOFF: 9 (updated 6/12)
TIER 2 POINT CUTOFF: 3 (updated 6/12)
Tournament finishes for all decks in the format are tracked in the Modern Nexus Metagame Spreadsheet. All decks receive 0-3 points in four separate categories, and then receive a total score based on the sum of their points. The decks with the highest points are considered Tier 1. The categories, and the source(s) for that data, are listed below:
- MTGO: All publicly published dailies posted on the mothership.
- Paper: All publicly published paper events posted to over a dozen sites like TCDecks, happymtg, mtgtop8, mtgdecks.net, and many more. All results are aggregated in our spreadsheet.
- Major Paper T8/T16: All T8 and T16 decks from Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
- Major Paper Day 2 metagames: All day 2 metagames from Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Points are awarded in each category based on a 95% confidence interval for average prevalences and how far outside of that confidence interval a deck’s prevalence falls. This gives us a statistically supported way of determining whether a deck is overperforming or underperforming, in a way that is transparent to all users and more “objective” than just grading decks based on personal preference. As an added bonus, the cutoffs are dynamic based on the current metagame, instead of semi-arbitrary cutoffs that are relics of older metagames no longer applicable today. So in one update, the 95% confidence interval for average prevalence on MTGO might be .95%-1.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.5%. But in another update, that interval might be 1%-1.5% and the standard deviation could be 2%. This higher variance metagame would naturally have different cutoffs than the lower variance one.Finally, after all decks have been awarded a point total, we take the average of that point total and then set a Tier 1 cutoff at 2 standard deviations over that average total. Any deck with points that exceed that cutoff is considered tier 1. So if the average score of all decks is 4 points with a standard deviation of 1, the Tier 1 cutoff will be set at 6 (4 + 1 + 1) for that update.
Here is the system that is used to award points to decks in the four different categories:
MTGO
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
Paper
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
GP/PT T8/T16
1 point: Prevalence > average weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
GP/PT Day 2
1 point: Prevalence > average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev prevalence
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions about the system, feel free to discuss them in the Modern Metagame Thread in Modern General.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Current Decks (5/1/2016 - 5/31/2016)
The following decks represent the current Tier 1 of Modern. Their point totals are listed next to them, along with how many points they earned in each individual category. For instance, "Affinity: 10 (3,2,2,2)" can be read as Affinity has 10 points total, with 3 for its MTGO performances, 2 for its Paper performances, 2 for its GP T8/T16 performances, and 2 for its GP Day 2 performances.