Human damage potential is often limited more by a lack of evasion than raw power. It's not hard to imagine Hanweir Garrison being outclassed on the battlefield by Tasigur etc, unable to attack safely and generate value. Conversely, Mantis Rider's flying is a big deal -- it's rarely outclassed in the air -- and the fact that it also has vigilance goes a long way toward making the Affinity matchup more manageable.
An evasive human that helps other grounded humans to attack more safely. It's a pretty solid filler card. I think a few copies might compete with Mayor / Confidant / etc for the flex slots.
EDIT:
Below-curve power and lack of vigilance make it worse than Mantis Rider but it seems like another possible flex option.
Is Xathrid Necromancer really that much better than Sin Collector in the Vial list? Sin Collector can pick out all of the same wraths except O-Stone, doesn't have the same weakness to Anger of the Gods, and has more utility in some other matchups like Burn.
After some more thought on Vial vs CoCo I agree they are each capable of some high-tempo openers and tricksy instant speed plays, and each has their own flavor of beneficial resiliency.
To me the greatest incentive to potentially play Vial over CoCo is the ability to run the full playset of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben without hurting ourselves. Thalia v1 is best against decks with lots of "air" cantrips, discard, counterspells, artifacts / enchantments / planeswalkers.
She seems potentially game-winning against Storm, Ad Nausam, Classic Gx Tron, Titanshift, 8-rack, and Dredge. She is potentially decent against Grixis Shadow, Ux Control, BGx midrange, and Burn -- in these matchups she is more likely to be removed but will at least trade evenly at 2 mana and 1 card, and in some cases can slow them down significantly and be MVP. She seems poorly positioned against evasive creature swarm decks (Affinity, Elves, Fish). I'm not sure yet how she is against Eldrazi Tron: there are a lot of large creatures capable of outclassing her in combat that she also doesn't get to tax, but slowing down Chalice, Map, Karn, and All is Dust might be critical for getting under them to win. I'm also not sure how useful she is against creature combo decks like Counters Company and Bant Knightfall.
The prevalence of Affinity hurts her somewhat, but I think that otherwise she is very well positioned for the global meta, which definitely gives the Vial list some points. Overall this has swayed me to at least consider and test the Vial version despite my belief that CoCo is a slightly stronger engine for the tribe than Vial.
Hostage Taker looks like fun and has a high ceiling but I worry that shaving copies of Path for Hostage Taker will help our already-OK midrange matchups while making it harder to quickly/efficiently interact with faster creature decks like Affinity / Vizier / Storm (?).
I've agreed that he's badly positioned in the CoCo builds for some time, but I haven't been completely convinced that he'd be bad in the new Vial lists yet.
To continue the BW Taxes comparison, 72% of competitive BW Eldrazi & Taxes decks ran 2-3x copies of Dark Confidant over the last ~2 months. Our mana base is probably slightly more painful, but our clock is also probably faster than theirs and the curve is a bit lower. They also don't run any lifegain in the MB.
I think he should be tested cautiously in the new Vial list before labeling him a trap. I'll try to get the physical cards together in the next couple weeks and provide real data.
Would 2-3 Dark Confidant make more sense than Tracker as a card advantage tool in a Vial list?
I know some BW Eldrazi & Taxes players run 2x Bob in the main. Here we have the same advantage of being able to Vial him in EoT to guarantee drawing at least one card. I still need to get a sense for the pain levels of the Vial list manabase — depending on how bad it is I might try swapping 2x Meddling Mage in the main for Bob or leave him in the side.
Even without dedicated lifegain it has 12 pain-free rainbow lands and a full playset of Thalia V1, Meddling Mage, and Kitesail Freebooter as well as Vial to dance around Eidolon’s shock trigger. Could also swap out Ethersworn Canonist for Kambal?
In terms of consistency of mana sources, if you run 4x Hierarchs + 3x Pilgrims with that land list you get the following untapped sources:
18x Green + 4x from Dorks
19x White + 7x from Dorks
16x Blue + 4x from Dorks
16x Red
16x Black
That seems like it's probably consistent enough to me based upon the Karsten calculations. It would be nice to be base-green instead of base-white in your fetch-shock scheme to have a slightly higher chance of nabbing a basic forest to cast CoCo through Blood Moon but I think that would probably throw everything off too much in a 4-5c list.
I've been less active in the thread for a while as I've waited for more reasonably priced Caverns... not sure when that will happen. =/
Here's what I would like to test in paper if possible:
Tireless Tracker with 21 lands and 8 fetches doesn't sound very appealing to me personally. Did he comment on them at all? He must've really seen something special in them to run 4x in the 75.
As for Arashin Cleric specifically, the reasons I advocate for it are:
A) Easy to cast
B) 2 mana, so can come down T2 without relying on a dork
C) 3 toughness, which means it can block Goblin Guide and a single prowess trigger on Monastery Swiftspear. Also means it is very burn resistant with any lord effect/+1 counter.
D) Consistent value at any point in the game
E) Aside from painful mana draws, landing the instant 3 lifegain can often put the game out of reach.
And I know not everyone cares, but I might add:
F) It costs $0.15 instead of $18
Probably better than Sin Collector in Black / Rainbow builds? Has flying, and can come down on turn 2 (even without a dork) ahead of Anger of the Gods or Karn. Only temporary exiling, though. I might try running 3 in the SB.
Replacements: Hierarch to Avacyn’s Pilgrim, Cavern to City of Brass, Canopy to Razorverge Thicket.
EDIT:
Below-curve power and lack of vigilance make it worse than Mantis Rider but it seems like another possible flex option.
To me the greatest incentive to potentially play Vial over CoCo is the ability to run the full playset of Thalia, Guardian of Thraben without hurting ourselves. Thalia v1 is best against decks with lots of "air" cantrips, discard, counterspells, artifacts / enchantments / planeswalkers.
She seems potentially game-winning against Storm, Ad Nausam, Classic Gx Tron, Titanshift, 8-rack, and Dredge. She is potentially decent against Grixis Shadow, Ux Control, BGx midrange, and Burn -- in these matchups she is more likely to be removed but will at least trade evenly at 2 mana and 1 card, and in some cases can slow them down significantly and be MVP. She seems poorly positioned against evasive creature swarm decks (Affinity, Elves, Fish). I'm not sure yet how she is against Eldrazi Tron: there are a lot of large creatures capable of outclassing her in combat that she also doesn't get to tax, but slowing down Chalice, Map, Karn, and All is Dust might be critical for getting under them to win. I'm also not sure how useful she is against creature combo decks like Counters Company and Bant Knightfall.
The prevalence of Affinity hurts her somewhat, but I think that otherwise she is very well positioned for the global meta, which definitely gives the Vial list some points. Overall this has swayed me to at least consider and test the Vial version despite my belief that CoCo is a slightly stronger engine for the tribe than Vial.
To continue the BW Taxes comparison, 72% of competitive BW Eldrazi & Taxes decks ran 2-3x copies of Dark Confidant over the last ~2 months. Our mana base is probably slightly more painful, but our clock is also probably faster than theirs and the curve is a bit lower. They also don't run any lifegain in the MB.
I think he should be tested cautiously in the new Vial list before labeling him a trap. I'll try to get the physical cards together in the next couple weeks and provide real data.
I know some BW Eldrazi & Taxes players run 2x Bob in the main. Here we have the same advantage of being able to Vial him in EoT to guarantee drawing at least one card. I still need to get a sense for the pain levels of the Vial list manabase — depending on how bad it is I might try swapping 2x Meddling Mage in the main for Bob or leave him in the side.
18x Green + 4x from Dorks
19x White + 7x from Dorks
16x Blue + 4x from Dorks
16x Red
16x Black
That seems like it's probably consistent enough to me based upon the Karsten calculations. It would be nice to be base-green instead of base-white in your fetch-shock scheme to have a slightly higher chance of nabbing a basic forest to cast CoCo through Blood Moon but I think that would probably throw everything off too much in a 4-5c list.
I've been less active in the thread for a while as I've waited for more reasonably priced Caverns... not sure when that will happen. =/
Here's what I would like to test in paper if possible:
3x Avacyn's Pilgrim
4x Noble Hierarch
4x Champion of the Parish
4x Kitesail Freebooter
4x Thalia's Lieutenant
1x Mayor of Avabruck
4x Mantis Rider
4x Reflector Mage
2x Anafenza, the Foremost
1x Thalia, Heretic Cathar
Instant (8)
4x Path to Exile
4x Collected Company
4x Unclaimed Territory
4x Windswept Heath
3x Arid Mesa
1x Godless Shrine
1x Hallowed Fountain
1x Stomping Ground
1x Temple Garden
1x Plains
1x Forest
2x Meddling Mage
2x Rest in Peace
2x Stony Silence
2x Eternal Witness
1x Izzet Staticaster
2x Kambal, Consul of Allocation
1x Reclamation Sage
3x Sin Collector
@Mender: can you link the full list?
F) It costs $0.15 instead of $18
Probably better than Sin Collector in Black / Rainbow builds? Has flying, and can come down on turn 2 (even without a dork) ahead of Anger of the Gods or Karn. Only temporary exiling, though. I might try running 3 in the SB.